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Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden hold their summit in Geneva at the first such meeting since 2018. Photo: AFP / EyePress News
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden hold their summit in Geneva at the first such meeting since 2018. Photo: AFP / EyePress News

Let’s start with the written word.

In Geneva, the US and Russia issued a joint statement in which “we reaffirm the principle that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”

Assorted Dr Strangeloves will cringe – but at least the world has it in writing, and may breathe a sigh of relief with this breakthrough of sorts. That doesn’t mean that a “non-agreement-capable” US military-industrial complex will abide by it.

Moscow and Washington also committed to engage in an “integrated bilateral strategic stability dialogue in the near future that will be deliberate and robust.” The devil in the details is in which “near future” the dialogue will progress.

A first step is that ambassadors are returning to both capitals. Putin confirmed that the Russian Foreign Ministry and the State Department will “start consultations” following the new START-3 treaty extension for five years.

Equally important was the actual Rosebud in Geneva: the Minsk protocol. That was one of the key drivers for the White House to actually ask the Kremlin for the summit – and not the other way around.

The US establishment was shaken by the lightning-flash military buildup in Russian territory contiguous to Donbass, which was a response to Kiev’s provocations. (Putin: “We conduct exercises on our territory, but we do not conduct exercises dragging equipment and weapons to the US border.”)

The message was duly received. There seems to be a change of posture by the US on Ukraine – implying the Minsk protocol is back.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden hold their summit in Geneva. Photo: AFP / EyePress News
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden hold their summit in Geneva. Photo: AFP / EyePress News

But that can all be – once again – shadow play. Biden said: “We agreed to pursue diplomacy related to the Minsk agreement.”

To “pursue diplomacy” does not necessarily mean strictly abiding by a deal, already endorsed by the UN Security Council, that is being disrespected by Kiev non-stop. But at least it implies diplomacy.

A benign reading would reveal that some red lines are finally being understood. Putin did allude to it: “In general, it is clear to us what our US partners talk about, and they do understand what we say, when it comes to the ‘red lines.’ But I should say frankly that we have not gone as far as placing the emphases in detail” sufficiently to “distribute and share something.”

So no detail – at least not yet.

Giving away the game

Talking before boarding Air Force One out of Geneva, a relaxed Joe Biden seems to have given away the game, in a trademark self-deluded way.

He said: “Russia is in a very, very difficult spot right now … They are being squeezed by China. They want desperately to remain a major power.”

This reveals a curious mix between zero knowledge about the complex, always evolving Russia-China comprehensive strategic partnership and outright wishful thinking (“squeezed by China,” “desperate to remain a major power”).

Russia is a de facto major power. Yet Putin’s vision of complete Russian sovereignty can only flourish in a true multipolar world coordinated by a concert of sovereigns: a realpolitik-based balance of power.

That’s in sharp contrast to the unipolarity privileged by the US, whose establishment considers any political player calling for sovereignty and multipolarity as a sworn enemy.

This cognitive dissonance certainly was not removed by what Putin, Biden and their extended teams discussed at Villa La Grange.

It’s quite enlightening to revive the arc from Anchorage to Geneva, which I have been chronicling for Asia Times for the past three months. In Alaska, China was hurled into a dingy environment and received with insults at the diplomatic table – responded to in kind by the formidable Yang Jiechi. Compare it with the Hollywood-style ceremonial in Geneva.

The difference in treatment offered to China and Russia once again gives away the game.

US ruling elites are totally paralyzed by the Russia-China strategic partnership. But their ultimate nightmare is that the Germans will understand that once again they are being used as cannon fodder, which they are as has been clearly visible throughout the Nord Stream 2 saga.

That might eventually propel Berlin into the ultimate Eurasian alliance with Russia and China. The recently signed Atlantic Charter signals that the ideal scenario for the Anglo-Americans – shades of WWII – is to have Germany and Russia as irreconcilable opposites.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden hold their summit in Geneva. Photo: AFP / EyePress News
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden hold their summit in Geneva. Photo: AFP / EyePress News

So the main American goal in the somewhat quirky Putin-Biden photo op (Putin smirk meets Biden looking into the distance) was to trick Putin into thinking Washington wants Russia “back in the fold,” moving Moscow away from Beijing and avoiding a triple alliance with Berlin.

Regional stability?

There were no substantial leaks from Geneva – at least not yet. We don’t know whether Lavrov and Blinken actually did much of the talking when only the four of them – plus translators – were in the library room.

At the extended meeting, notorious Maidan cookie distributor Victoria “F*ck the EU” Nuland had a seat at the table. That might imply that even if the US and Russia agree on nuclear stability, regional stability remains largely off the table. (Putin: “What is stable in supporting a coup in Ukraine?”)

Biden vaguely referred to the US and Russia possibly working together on humanitarian aid to Syria. That was code for Idlib – where NATO’s Turkey is actively supporting jihadis of the al-Nusra kind. Not a word on the illegal American occupation of Syrian territory – complete with oil smuggling – and the fact that the real humanitarian crisis in Syria is a direct result of US sanctions.

None of this was asked in either presser. A passing word on Iran, another passing word on Afghanistan, not even a mention of Gaza.

Putin, in full command of the facts and insisting on logic, was clearly accommodating, emphasizing “no hostility” and “a willingness to understand each other.” Biden, to his credit, said disagreements were not dealt with in a “hyperbolic atmosphere” and his “agenda” is not directed against Russia.

Putin went into extreme detail explaining how Russia is “restoring lost infrastructure” in the Arctic. He’s “deeply convinced” the US and Russia should cooperate in the Arctic.

On cybersecurity, he was adamant that Moscow provides all information on US requests about cyberattacks, but never receives answers from the Americans. He emphasized most cyberattacks originate in the US.

On human rights: “Guantanamo is still working, does not comply with any international law.” And “torture was used in American prisons, including in Europe.”

Very important: they did touch upon, “casually,” the vaccine wars, and the “possibility” was evoked of mutual recognition of vaccines.

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a news conference after a meeting with his US counterpart Joe Biden at the Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland. Photo: AFP / Sergey Guneev / Sputnik
Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a news conference after a meeting with his US counterpart Joe Biden at the Villa La Grange in Geneva, Switzerland. Photo: AFP / Sergey Guneev / Sputnik

For the record, US mainstream media were invited for Putin’s presser – and felt free to lodge accusatory “questions” faithful to the “rogue Kremlin behavior” script – while no Russian media whatsoever were allowed at Biden’s presser.

In a nutshell, applying Kissinger’s divide and rule to put a spanner in the Russia-China works was DOA when you were dealing with ultra-savvy players such as Putin and Lavrov.

Putin, in his presser, said: “I have no illusions, and there can be no illusions.” Later, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was asked if Geneva would lead to the US being removed from Russia’s Unfriendly Nations list: “No,” he replied. “There are no grounds yet.”

Still, there are glimmers of hope. Stranger geopolitical things have happened. If warmongers are sidelined, 2021 might even end up as the Year of Strategic Stability.

(Republished from Asia Times by permission of author or representative)
 
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  1. “Russia is in a very, very difficult spot right now … They are being squeezed by China. They want desperately to remain a major power.”

    This is pathetic!

    What was really the purpose of a meeting between a Paleolithic man and Plato? I wish I could overhear the weird dialog between the two.

    If the meeting’s purpose was to delay or stop the multipolar world order from taking shape I can assure you that it was a waste of time. You can no longer put the genie back in the bottle – Zu spät!
    My crystal ball clearly shows that the multipolar world order is already working. Maybe some blind world “leaders” don’t see it yet.

  2. ruralguy says:

    “we reaffirm the principle that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”

    Interesting. With the advent of hypersonic nuclear missiles, war is actually much closer, because they are hard to track and so the response times are almost nil. In the old ballistic missile cold war, there was a well-defined equilibrium between Soviets developed counter-target (first strike) ICBMS/SLBMs and our counter-value (targeting their cities and infrastructure). Then, we (Reagan) forced a new game upon the Soviets by countering their ICBMs/SLBMs, with a national-missile defense. The Soviets gave up, unable to compete, and they quickly collapsed afterwards. But, now the game has turned very deadly with these hypersonic missiles. It forces both sides into a precarious first-strike position. That’s why this is so serious and why they are talking seriously about this. The Russians learned the hard way through us, on how to play this game. Our bumbling Democrats are pushing us closer to this war, with their anti-Russian rhetoric. The world is very complex and we cannot afford to have the U.S. ruled by an ignorant class of voters.

  3. Multipolar means war,the internal contradictions of such a system built upon zones of influence,that’s Putin’s bright idea,or China BRI, thats basically imperialism,are at odds with the western idea,basically democracy,the world is unfortunately going headlong into a major conflict,as neither the two totalitarian states,China or Russia,are mature enough to deal with their internal problems and won’t accept the superior western system,sad but basically we’re seeing the replication of the late 19th century in front of our eyes,and dear old Pepe thinks its all marvellous

  4. @alwayswrite

    There’s no delusional button to press. I wish there were.

    • Agree: Realist
    • Replies: @alwayswrite
  5. @RoatanBill

    I agree multipolar is delusional, don’t tell me though,tell Escobar

  6. Any attempt to repair relations will be hampered by the US seizure of Russian property in the US. The Russians had a compound where they could work with relative security. There is no way to rebuild that. The EU members can’t even get secure communications in their own countries. A fact overlooked at both the G7 and the US / Russia summit.

    Also, the “Putin has no soul” story told by Joe Biden looks to be just that, a story. In an interview, Putin said he has no recollection of the event and defers to Biden’s superior memory. Probably a joke.

    Biden is a confabulist. He tells stories often with himself as the Hero. What that means for policy and international relations I’m not sure.

  7. A meeting forced by circumstances with ill-will agreements, it is certain that there will be no results and it can be expected that everything will continue as before.

  8. @alwayswrite

    you managed to use almost every msm cia bulletpoint there is😂
    rotanBill is right, i widh there was a delusional button.

  9. @alwayswrite

    superior western system

    Superior? Do you have any other bridges to sell as well?

    In my humble and admittedly inexpert opinion, no one system reigns supreme.

    BRI supposedly promotes development and cooperation, and you are probably right, will come at a price. But then nothing is free.

    Now compare it with what could be called the USA’s MRI (My Road Initiative) of destruction and submission, and its price.

    Which is more imperialistic and/or totalitarian?

    we’re seeing the replication of the late 19th century

    Please provide references. I am truly interested in seeing how history is again repeating itself.

    Thanks.

  10. Like i said to someone else,its called the truth,its really sad to see so many folks taken in by Kremlin BS merchants

    Well you’ll have to live with the failure of Russia,just like all those idiotic western lefties who had to try and get over the failure of the Soviet Union,many still can’t get over it,but who cares what idiots think

    But people like you will come up with some sort of daft excuses when Putin’s Russia goes belly up,you’ll probably blame jews,or liberals,Wall Street, traitors or a combo of all those,pretty pathetic really

    • Replies: @Ultrafart the Brave
  11. @alwayswrite

    Like i said to someone else,its called the truth…

    Yes, the “truth”, just like Russia’s successful “invasion and annexation” of Crimea with precisely zero military assets, as you explained to us in another of your enlightening posts.

    Golem had his One Ring to obsess over, what’s keeping you happy?

    • Replies: @alwayswrite
  12. Alfa158 says:
    @alwayswrite

    Wishful thinking. Our Empire never actually came close to controlling the whole planet, and there never really was a Pax Americana, as can be attested to by all the people who lost loved ones in the American Forever Wars. My country has hollowed out its industry, marginalized the people who built it and is printing Monopoly money in a final desperate effort to keep up the Imperial pretense.
    The world has always been multi-polar and always will be, Star Trek is just science fiction.
    My comfort is that perhaps after it all settles out I will have a chance to live in some sort of real nation again instead of a faux would-be empire.

  13. antibeast says:
    @alwayswrite

    Multipolar is the natural way unlike unipolar which is unnatural. Peter Zaihan wrote about it in the ‘Accidental Superpower’ which he thinks is ending as America’s role as the lone superpower declines while the unipolar world order gives way to a multipolar international order. The Anglo-American Viceroys of the US Deep State may not like it but America’s decline as the ‘Accidental Superpower’ had been preordained from its very inception by none other than the founding fathers of the USA. In every sphere of national life whether in society, culture, politics or economics, the USA has seen all sorts of problems caused by its imperial overreach which can only worsen with time. The only card left for the US Deep State is the military option which is not viable against nuclear-armed States such as Russia or China. The US Deep State has tried prolonging its Empire by waging proxy wars against non-Western States but that has resulted in an anti-American geopolitical backlash in much of the non-Western World.

    To paraphrase Biden:

    The USA is in a very, very difficult spot right now … They are being squeezed by China. They want desperately to remain a major power.

    Contrary to Western misconceptions, China will not and does not want to replace the USA as the world’s lone superpower. The multipolar international order will be led by multiple poles of power, centered in geopolitical regions formed out of multinational trading blocs belonging to similar civilizations and sharing values and interests arising from a common historical worldview. This grouping of non-Western countries is occurring naturally as they seek to pool their resources in asserting their values and protecting their interests AGAINST the unipolar world order imposed by the Anglo-American Empire. China is not leading them; they are leading themselves. And this very fact of non-Western countries organizing themselves into regional poles of power is what threatens the imperial delusions of the Anglo-American Viceroys in the US Deep State who have responded hysterically to the rise of the non-West.

    • Agree: Joe Levantine
    • Replies: @alwayswrite
  14. @Ultrafart the Brave

    You claim there were ” precisely zero military assets ” you better tell Putin that because he actually claimed different to what you say,his little green men secured the airport and government buildings

    Obviously Putin was wrong so i’ll deter to your superior knowledge

    Anyway like i keep saying it hasn’t been much of a win win has it!

  15. @antibeast

    Sorry could you repeat all that,as i found myself drifting of into sleep about two sentences in😴😴😴😴

    • Replies: @antibeast
    , @Joe Levantine
  16. antibeast says:
    @alwayswrite

    Here’s a video featuring a discussion with Peter Zaihan and Joseph Nye, presided by Ian Bremmer at the Council of Foreign Relations on the ‘Future of American Power’:

    Don’t fall asleep as they address the issue of whether the USA will be able to maintain its unipolar status as the lone superpower in the world.

    • Replies: @alwayswrite
  17. @antibeast

    You don’t get it do you!

    Why do you think they do stuff like this?

    I liked the bit about Russia though,according to one of those speakers Russia only has 5 years,I’d be generous I’ve said 20 thats when Putin’s gone, thats vacuum time!

    • Replies: @antibeast
  18. antibeast says:
    @alwayswrite

    Here’s John Mearsheimer on the problems which has caused the decline of the US-led unipolar liberal international order:

    Both Peter Zaihan and John Mearsheimer believe that Trump is not the cause but the symptom of the decline of the US-led unipolar world order.

    Care to rebut their arguments?

  19. Mearsheimer is an idiot dinosaur,he says so himself,he feels at home in China and Russia,that tells you all you need to know about him,he obviously doesn’t like the liberal international order which he thinks is some sort of anarchy

    Basically your man sounds like a ranty old fool,his whole philosophy,if thats what it can be called,is a sort of antediluvain childish world which basically can be summed up thus, ‘ my dads bigger than you’re dad,so don’t mess with me or he’ll smash you up’

    Its hardly original thinking in my opinion,and its the sort of dumbed down way of looking at the world that leads to all out war

    Having said that he supports my comments I’ve been making about India and the Quad,he’s wrong though about Iran,simply because the energy transition will make all middle eastern countries irrelevant,and China will be seeking renewables as a matter of national security,which in Meirshimminers ‘ realist’ world doesn’t seem to register,judging by his silly none reply to the woman asking about climate change, I’d suspect he’s a climate sceptic,funny how the camera panned to the audience at that point to show how bored they were,maybe they’re were all bored

    • Replies: @antibeast
  20. @alwayswrite

    Deficit Attention Disorder ?

    • Replies: @alwayswrite
  21. antibeast says:
    @alwayswrite

    Basically your man sounds like a ratty old fool, his whole philosophy, if that’ s what it can be called, is a sort of antediluvian childish world which basically can be summed up thus, ‘my dads bigger than you’re dad, so don’t mess with me or he’ll smash you up’.

    As a geopolitical realist, Mearsheimer believes in ‘balance of power’ politics or realpolitik. Here’s a video of his talk entitled “The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities” which is based on a book of the same title published in 2018:

    In the above video, he mentioned NATO’s expansion into Eastern Europe as part of the Western extension of ‘liberal hegemony’ which provoked Russia’s ‘nationalist’ reaction in Georgia and Ukraine. In his view, the West — led by the USA and the EU — attempted to promote Western ‘liberalism’ in Eastern Europe which ended up clashing with Russian ‘nationalism’ in Georgia and Ukraine.

    The QUAD is a good example of geopolitical realism as its members do not share Western liberal values. As a praxis of realpolitik, the QUAD was clearly intended for one military purpose which is to contain China. As far as India is concerned, you’re seeing the same reaction from Russia which feels threatened by the QUAD. By the way, the USA has attempted to sabotage India’s defense ties to Russia by threatening to impose sanctions on India for its purchase of the S-400 MDS from Russia. The Indian Deep State has not reacted kindly to the US threats which has negatively affected India’s membership in the QUAD. But India is not the only member of the QUAD which has worried Russia. Putin has also expressed similar concerns to Abe who had wanted Japan to sign a peace treaty with Russia. But according to Putin, Japan’s defense ties to the USA precludes any resolution of the Kuril Islands dispute which stems from the WWII era.

    The impotence of the QUAD is proof that we are in fact devolving into a multi-polar international order as Trump’s hostility to the ‘liberal hegemony’ of the USA has fractured the US-led unipolar world order. Mearsheimer also mentioned in passing Trump’s abrogation of the TPP which he acknowledged was designed to economically ‘contain’ China. While the USA had been successful in promoting Western ‘liberal hegemony’ in Europe through NATO and the EU, Russia’s ‘nationalism’ clashed with the Western ‘liberal hegemony’ in Ukraine and Georgia. But that’s not the case in Asia because China — not the USA — is in the driver’s seat as the leader of pan-Asian institutions such as the SCO, RCEP, BRI and AIIB, all of which excludes the USA. No Asian country will accept the ‘liberal hegemony’ of the West led by the USA because they are non-Western countries. This is the fundamental difference between the Western ‘liberal hegemony’ led by the USA vs China-led ‘community’ of Asian nations.

  22. I’m familiar with Mearshimmers silly nonsense about Ukraine,its all the fault of the west baloney,yeah whatever

    He wrote some stuff about this after the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea,apparently its all NATO,NATO,NATO,oh with a bit more NATO just for good measure,I’m referring to his really very silly article he wrote in, i believe 2014, what a piss poor attempt at trying to hammer his ‘realist’ square peg theory into a round hole of real reality

    So lets get things crystal clear,Ukraine sign a trade deal with the EU and this idiot Mearspinner thinks its some sort of existential threat to Russia,which justifies Russian military aggression,of course in Prof Mearshwhiners world this wasn’t a trade deal it was actually an invitation to join NATO

    I bet the Prof never even read the EU Ukraine Association Agreement,well one things a fact the article he wrote,which i alluded to never mentions this agreement,only NATO

    I’m afraid that the good Prof is basically a total fool by claiming the west were at fault for the Ukrainian crisis,but i’ll be generous and as always truthful,he’s just another useful idiot for Putin’s regime,with all his daft blather and so called theories which are nothing more than a primitive throwback to running the world in a truly brutal stupid self destructive way

    I haven’t a clue what you’re on about as far as the Qaud is concerned,as the members are India,Japan,Australia and USA

    • Replies: @antibeast
  23. antibeast says:
    @alwayswrite

    Mearsheimer did mention the Bucharest Summit held in April 2008 in Romania where the NATO Membership Plan was discussed which would have extended membership to Ukraine and Georgia whose request to join NATO was deferred until December 2008. However, relations between Russia and Georgia worsened to the point that the Russo-Georgian War broke out in August 2008.

    Here’s a news article concerning the Bucharest Summit:

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7328276.stm

    The alliance decided not to offer Ukraine and Georgia a membership action plan – a gateway to membership – but agreed on Thursday to review this in December.

    Nato Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told a news conference that Georgia and Ukraine would become members eventually.

    Germany and France had been opposed to putting the two nations on the path to membership, amid concerns voiced by Russia over Nato’s eastward expansion.

    “Georgia’s and Ukraine’s membership in the alliance is a huge strategic mistake which would have most serious consequences for pan-European security,” Interfax news agency quoted Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko as saying on the sidelines of the summit.

    Georgian diplomats said they were “not happy” with the delay but welcomed the promise of eventual membership.

    Mearsheimer also attributed the worsening relations between Russia and Georgia to the aftermath of the Rose Revolution in November 2003 which he likened to the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in November 2004. Russian nationalists then reacted to both the Rose and Orange Revolutions together with NATO expansion to Eastern Europe which was being offered to both Ukraine and Georgia as Western attempts to encircle and contain Russia. This is what Mearsheimer meant when he claimed that the US-led Western liberal order clashed with Russian nationalism after NATO and EU expanded to Eastern Europe following the Fall of the Soviet Union.

    Mearsheimer didn’t talk about the Maiden Revolution which took place ten years later in 2014.

  24. Mearsshammer frames everything through his daft ‘ realist’ prism,unfortunately he doesn’t seem to understand or want to understand the asymmetry of economic power and transformative effect of the superior EU economic model on the old Warsaw Pact countries,its all about NATO according to him and he’s wrong

    The biggest challenge to the Putin isn’t NATO its the EU single market,again no mention of this,and its superior model which would seriously undermine his regime not NATO

    If Mearshammer wants to make a fool of himself that’s up to him,but he’s basically wrong,economics are gonna be the downfall of Russia and the better rules based system of the west,which Russia wont sign up to thats why its a cess pit of corruption

    Putin just couldn’t risk Ukraine becoming more competitive and successful in the EU camp whilst he was trying to build his own Eurasian alternative,Mearshammer though thinks its all anarchy and hard power zone of influence stuff,no Mr Mearshaftrr! its all about rules and soft power, they’re ultimately far more attractive than having the jack boot on your neck
    The reality is Russia has done more than anything to restrict and contain itself by its stupid Crimea stunt, NATO could never encircle Russia,plus all those Putin fan boys keep telling us about how crappy NATO is,if so why is Putin so worried?

    maybe this containment strategy is actually about allowing Putin to make mistakes,as its a fact Putin’s Russia can’t compete economically,he basically fell into a trap of his own creation in Crimea,now he’s depending upon the Chinese,which won’t turn out well for Russia,basically another trap the west deep state couldn’t care less if Putin goes skulking off to the Chinese,because yet again he’s confronting another asymmetric economic power game it’ll find itself in without long term benefit

    Putin should have surrendered Russia to the EU block over twenty years ago,he could have looked for some sort of association agreement,but that would have meant giving up some sovereignty, if he’d done so he wouldn’t be in the mess he’s in now,but instead he followed the Mearshafter way and now his country is gonna suffer,possibly even split apart in the future

    • Replies: @antibeast
  25. antibeast says:
    @alwayswrite

    I posted the link to the news article which shows that NATO planned to offer memberships to Ukraine and Georgia back in 2008 against Russian objections. If EU membership of Ukraine was the reason behind Russia’s annexation of Crimea which is home to the Russian Navy in Sebastopol, then why did Russia decide to continue with the Nord Stream II pipeline to Germany which bypasses Ukraine to serve the EU market? Don’t tell me that Putin wants to do business with the EU but he doesn’t want Ukraine to become part of the EU. Your Russophobia doesn’t make sense.

    • Replies: @alwayswrite
  26. @antibeast

    I think you need to read what you put in your little box,which clearly states,NATO did not agree to allow Ukraine membership

    You can’t even get the basics right,Ukraine wasn’t even offered EU membership,it was an Association Agreement,a trade agreement not a back door to NATO

    Your man Mearspears think Ukraine should just be some sort of piggy in the middle, a state with no future,basically without any agency incapable of having a future in case it upsets Russia,he even contradicts himself by thinking that Ukraine could become a democracy and successful economy but then states Russia will do all it can to screw up Ukraine,for obvious reasons that a successful Ukraine would show the incompetence of Putin’s own abilities for economic reforms,a successful economy right on the Russian border is absolutely not a good thing for Putin,and don’t forget the EU Ukraine trade deal basically configured Ukraine towards European regulatory standards,not compatible with Russia so a big loss for Russian economically,basically Russia is a weak economic actor incapable of offering much to Ukraine apart from more corruption and pro Russian oligarchs,seems thats also what Mearspanner thinks should be the future of Ukrainians,in other words f*#k the people!

    Like I’ve said its the more efficient market system of the EU which offers Ukraine room to develop a successful future thats the greater threat to Russia not NATO,but your man Mearshmushup its all about NATO expansion, the right of people through their own sovereign government for a better future is totally unacceptable if you live next to Russia,remember we have to bow and scrap ourselves in front of Russia,walk on egg shells in case their delicate sensibilities disturbed!

    ok that pipeline,Putin and Gazprom thought they’d get a monopoly over NS2, which they haven’t,so why wouldn’t they carry on with the pipeline,unfortunately for them the EU has got wise to Russia playing the
    ‘ gas card’and now they have to comply with EU gas regulatory rules,which Gazprom really didn’t like one bit

    The trouble is you people seem to think NS2 gives Russia leverage over the EU especially Germany,but it actually doesn’t as the EU have managed to snarl the Russian plans up,Russia can’t just switch off the gas,or sell it elsewhere,they’ve been captured by the Germans,sly old Germany eh, who used the EU to save face and still get a good deal from daft Putin,plus the EU have now built up a gas transfer interconnector system

    Basically Putin has no option to sell the gas to Europe,unfortunately for him it’s not gonna be on his terms, and it gets worse for Russia as the EU have their very ambitious energy plans to de- carbonize their economy by 2050 so that’ll pretty much end the gas trade for Russia,certainly its oil exports,i wonder what Putin will do? Maybe he’ll invade Europe,as their energy programme will be an existential threat to Russia and its economy and therefore its internal stability,maybe we should ask Prof Mearmusher,i suppose he’d also say it was ok because thats what ‘ realist ‘ theory dictates!

    What actually doesn’t make sense is Putin,because for a supposedly grand master of geo- politics he seems to be doing all the right things to destroy Russia as a functional state,his very actions have turned Ukrainians against Russia,his occupation of Crimea cost loads of money with little return,his turn to China will eventually see Russia depending upon China,and once Putin’s gone it’ll all unravel into chaos,like I’ve said i’ll give it about twenty years,thirty at most then its bingo for Russia

  27. antibeast says:

    Here’s a video of a lecture given by Mearsheimer on “Why the West – Not Putin – Is Responsible for the Ukraine Crisis”, which was held on 9th December 2015 in the Main Auditorium of Collegium Novum at the Jagiellonian University in Poland:

    If Putin is threatened by the economic prosperity of the EU, then why would he agree to build the NS2 pipeline to Germany and sell Russian natural gas direct to the EU, thus bypassing Ukraine? No sense at all.

    Mearsheimer makes a lot more sense than your thesis that Putin annexed Crimea because he is jealous of Ukraine’s EU Association Agreement which could have turned into a backdoor to EU membership. Ukraine still has a pending NATO Membership Plan which was announced during the Bucharest Summit in 2008. Mearsheimer believes this NATO Membership Plan spurred Putin to annex Crimea which is home to the Russian Navy in Sevastopol after Yanukovych was ousted by the US-instigated Maidan Revolution in 2014.

    You may not agree with Mearsheimer but you need to think through what he is saying to understand the gravity of the Ukrainian crisis which he believes was caused by the West not by Putin.

  28. Why do you keep referring me to Mearshumper?

    I’m fully aware of how he thinks,and its a dumb way to think,he’s found the action of Russia to support his ideology which is one opposed to the current international order,which is convenient for him,but won’t help Putin or Russia

    Mearshimmer has to frame everything through the prism of NATO because thats what gives value to his theory and therefore the actions of Russia but he’s wrong to blame the west

    The real problems about the Russian navel base were actually to do with the heavy handed policies of Russia and gas exports plus a so called agreement,Kharkiv Pact, which was concocted by the Russian stooge Yanucovych,in contravention of Ukrainians constitution to grant twenty five year lease to the naval facility in Crimea,it was the way all this bent and frankly corrupted stuff played out that created the need for Putin to take Crimea,in other word it was another example of Russian foreign policy failure,as the Kharkiv Pact was deeply unpopular in Ukraine,basically a sell out to kow tow to Moscow for cheaper gas,this was the trigger for what would lmost certainly close the base there as thats what the Ukrainian law demanded with their constitution,but these things mean nothing to Mearshlammer!

    If you add the Yanucovych treachery over the naval pact, plus his back sliding over the EU agreement and generally corruption,I’d say you’ve got all the right ingredients for massive civil anger,but according to Mearshlumper,thats not allowed,you just have to keep your mouth shut and suck it up from the Russians

    Whats all this achieved?

    Nothing positive for Putin or Russia thats a factn

    In fact all its done now Trump is gone,is to actually bring the western alliance together they’ll now double down on their vision of the rules based system not give up on it,plus Putin’s hard power game has absolutely wrecked any chance of good will with Ukraine,so like I’ve said Putin’s strategy has backfired massively, and its actually more likely that Ukraine will form some sort of agreement with NATO so that’s a really dumb thing for Putin to do

    • Replies: @antibeast
  29. antibeast says:
    @alwayswrite

    You’re just grasping at straws now, throwing strawmen such as the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement or the Kharkiv Pact, as an excuse for your anti-Russian narrative.

    YOU: In other words it was another example of Russian foreign policy failure, as the Kharkiv Pact was deeply unpopular in Ukraine, basically a sell out to kowtow to Moscow for cheaper gas, this was the trigger for what would almost certainly close the base there as that’s what the Ukrainian law demanded with their constitution, but these things mean nothing to Mearsheimer!

    You’re just making things up. There is nothing illegal with the Kharkiv Pact as proven by the fact that the opposition tried anyway to push a law unilaterally abrogating the Kharkiv Pact but failed to pass the law on June 19, 2013, as reported in the news article below:

    https://jamestown.org/how-likely-is-the-cancellation-of-the-gas-for-fleet-pact-between-ukraine-and-russia/


    On June 19, the Ukrainian parliament (Rada) failed to approve a draft law on the denunciation (abrogation) of the “Kharkiv Accord,” which President Viktor Yanukovych’s government signed with Russia in April 2010. The Kharkiv Accord allowed for the continuation of the stationing of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, Ukraine, in exchange for a discount on natural gas being imported from Russia.

    A look at the draft denunciation bill’s vote breakdown implies that the bill fell 74 votes short of the 226 necessary for its approval by the Rada. In fact, it also shows the absence of votes of 33 elected MPs belonging to three opposition factions in the Rada, although their approval votes would not be enough to reach the count necessary for the cancellation of the Kharkiv Accord. Clearly, the opposition lacks the majority to approve the denunciation and even the unity to stand behind it. At the same time, the public appears uninterested in the issue. The news on the failed attempt to legally abrogate the Kharkiv Accord was reported in all major Ukrainian media, but it received little analysis. The language of the denunciation draft law was rather simple, filling two short paragraphs. Its initiator, MP Yavorivsky, is a member of the Rada Committee on Culture and Spirituality. Before the vote, the Ukrainian opposition has not launched any campaign for this draft law. In fact, it was doomed to fail.

    On the day of the vote, Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister Ruslan Demchenko told Interfax that a unilateral cancellation of the agreement is not legally possible. But it does not mean that the Kharkiv Accord would not be questioned again in the future. Opposition leaders Yulia Tymoshenko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Vitaliy Klichko, and Oleh Tiahnybok all had sharply criticized the Kharkiv Accord in the past.

    Nor was the EU Association Agreement with Ukraine ratified in September 2014 opposed by Russia. Any peaceful settlement of the Ukraine Crisis would involve the adoption of Mearsheimer’s proposed creation of a neutral State in Ukraine which would act as a buffer between NATO and Russia. With the Biden Administration lifting US sanctions on the NS2 pipeline project which is expected to be completed by the end of 2021 while simultaneously ignoring Ukraine’s appeals for US military support against Russia, Ukraine has already lost its only geopolitical card left as a future NATO military outpost on the borders of Russia. Without its NATO membership, Ukraine has no strategic value to the West.

  30. That Jamestown link is ancient history,written before Putin’s invasion,so basically irrelevant as things now stand

    Yanukovych has been charged and found guilty of treason since your link was written partly to do with the Kharkiv agreement amongst other crimes

    Mearsspanner is wrong,its now impossible to create a buffer state in Ukraine,Russia crossed the red line,and like I’ve repeatedly said why should Ukraine have to live a life subordinated to what the kremlin want,just because some idiot like Mearshspanner thinks it’d be a good outcome

    Basically Putin wanted Ukraine in his Eurasian economic union, which only promised more corruption and stagnation going forwards,why would you want your country pulled into Putin’s nasty zero sum game world,obviously Ukrainians didn’t and that was the end of Yanukovych,also Putin’s plan for his sub optimal alternative,and probably the worst of all some sort of alignment with NATO thats a big failure,plus the fact Ukrainians actually now hate Putin and his regime

    Ukraine I’d predict will out last Putin’s Russia,it’ll continue its path towards modernisation and by mid century be far more prosperous than whats left of Putin’s Russia,and Mearshimmers realist theory will be laughed at as a prehistoric relic not fit for purpose

    Putin’s basically blown it,and once Putin’s gone the whole sorry mess of Russia is highly likely to unravel,so if we’re following the logic of the realist theory in relation to Russia you’re building a house of cards,a new Russian Putin empire based around Putin, and his realist spheres of influence

    Putin’s demonstrated he’s not to be trusted,broken international law,uses coercive methods of economic warfare on basically much smaller countries and is actually terrified of those countries going elsewhere to form progressive partnerships with the EU

    Putin offers nothing but a degenerative form of slow death,stagnation and criminal authoritarian rule by the worst kind of people,and basically this is what caused the Ukrainian crises, this way of thinking was absolutely rejected Ukrainians it should be rejected by all normal people

    • Replies: @antibeast
  31. antibeast says:
    @alwayswrite

    I caught your lie when you claimed that the Kharkiv Pact was “concocted by the Russian stooge Yanukovych in contravention of Ukraine’s constitution”. Not only was the Kharkiv Pact ratified by both Russian and Ukrainian Parliaments on April 27, 2010 but the Ukrainian opposition failed to nullify the Kharhiv Pact on June 19, 2013, nine months before the Crimean annexation from Feb 20, 2014 to Mar 26, 2014.

    Ukraine I’d predict will out last Putin’s Russia, it’ll continue its path towards modernisation and by mid century be far more prosperous than what’s left of Putin’s Russia, and Mearsheimer’s realist theory will be laughed at as a prehistoric relic not fit for purpose.

    Here’s a video on how Ukraine is ‘continuing its path towards modernisation’:

    Let’s see who has the last laugh on Mearsheimer’s realist theory on Ukraine.

    • Replies: @alwayswrite
  32. @antibeast

    you show me Russian propaganda,so what!

    I’m supposed to be impressed by this stupid BS intended for Putin’s stupid people,thats the tragedy of Russia under Putin,and this stupidity is what Mearsshantler also supports as Putins superb realist strategy,OMG and this bloke Mearsstuffer is let loose in universities!

    • Replies: @antibeast
  33. antibeast says:
    @alwayswrite

    While Mearsheimer’s realist theory acknowledged the ethnic divisions between Western and Eastern Ukraine, he didn’t touch on the Nazi roots of Western Ukrainian nationalism. Your anti-Russian narrative presupposes the pro-Western orientation of Western Ukraine but ignores the Nazi undercurrent of Western Ukrainian nationalism which is both anti-Russian and anti-Western, with a long history stretching all the way back to the Soviet era and the WWII period. Here’s a good video giving a historical overview of Ukraine’s Nazi Problem:

  34. You’ve lost all the arguments haven’t you!

    So has that idiot professor,his recommendations for global governance are a retrograde step back to the 19th century and that world came crashing down didn’t it

    So you’ve lost the arguments and then return to safe ground,that old chestnut,Ukraine is full of Nazis

    Like I’ve said Putin’s policies are to encourage those types of people across the west,but thats ok,because hybrid warfare and creating syncretic movement is fine for hypothetical Putin,incidentally your daft professor is part of that syncretic system,once known as useful idiots,so Putin’s policy is to undermine western unity thats so we can all live in the better system of fascism that Putin loves

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