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From my new column in Taki’s Magazine:

Contact Highs, Abstract Lows

Steve Sailer

July 28, 2021

If racism is the only thing that could possibly account for the problems of blacks in 2021, shouldn’t their troubles be declining steadily? After all, the effects of redlining (outlawed in 1968) and the other usual suspects should logically be steadily vanishing into the mists of time. But instead, nothing much seems to change as the decades roll by.

A landmark new study titled “Task-Based Discrimination” looks into exactly why the white-black wage gap among men declined dramatically from 1960 to 1980, but today it is just as wide as it was at the end of the Carter administration (and has been worsening in this century). It turns out it has to do more with fundamental changes in technology than it does white evilness. …

In contrast, this new in-depth study by Erik Hurst and Kazuatsu Shimizu of the U. of Chicago and Yona Rubinstein of the London School of Economics provides a fascinating framework for analyzing the past sixty years of trends among black and white male workers.

Read the whole thing there.

 
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  1. I wonder if facing criticism of his immigration policy, President Biden will blurt out, “We need Hispanics to run out the brothers”!
    As for the wealth gap, I wonder if David French is willing to live in an otherwise all-black neighborhood? Maybe he would find evidence for why the gap exists.

    • Agree: Daniel H
    • Replies: @Mr Mox
    @Redneck farmer

    “We need Hispanics to run out the brothers”!

    At first glance I read it as “We need Hispanics to run our brothels”!

    Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter, @Reg Cæsar

    , @Alec Leamas (working from home)
    @Redneck farmer


    I wonder if facing criticism of his immigration policy, President Biden will blurt out, “We need Hispanics to run out the brothers”!
     
    I'm paraphrasing, but a few months ago he said something about after whites becoming a minority, blacks and Hispanics are going to have to learn how to get along.

    It was a classic Biden gaffe, in which his super-ego was too slow to catch up to his id's speaking extemporaneously. Biden's political id gets especially frenetic around blacks, Hispanics and gays. (cue Biden's "around the clock sex - come on, man!" live comment to Anderson Cooper).

    It sort of reveals that he knows that blacks and Hispanics are fair-weather allies held together by hatred of prole whites stoked by . . . people like Biden.
    , @PaceLaw
    @Redneck farmer

    Living in an all-black neighborhood would truly be an eye-opening experience for David French. He would soon learn the value of the old saying “liberals mugged by reality,” and how true it still is today.

    Also, “Hispanics running the brothers out“ is really not a bad strategy at all. What is objectively true is that Hispanics have lower rates of murder and violent crime than African-Americans. Even a slight reduction in the murder/crime rate in a city could pay big dividends. Open-border immigration may well have benefits that have been under appreciated.

  2. • Replies: @Mike Tre
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Anti-vaxxers are negroes?

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @Athletic and Whitesplosive

  3. White/black wage gap increased because:
    The FIRE economy geared up during the Ronald Reagan years as we emerged from the sharp dip when RR came into office. The FIRE economy lead into offshoring our factories, which really ramped up after the fall of communism in Russia and Eastern Europe. Without an external enemy Wall Street and our great titans of industry were allowed to run wild with offshoring. Billions and trillions were made by the above people as they sold out America and the white working class. Black workers too.

    FIRE economy — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRE_economy

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Clyde

    It's less well known that the deindustrialization of the last 40 years has created White slums throughout the Rustbelt. Lots of "hillbilly ghettos" in these places.

    The inhabitants of these White slums may not shoot and kill each other that often, but there's a lot of alcoholism, drug addiction, homelessness, mental illness, suicide, family breakdown, and property crime. Sort of like Native reservations, but less craziness.

    The problems of urban Blacks get a lot of news coverage, but the hard-hit Whites of the Rustbelt often fly under the radar.

    Replies: @Feryl, @Mark G., @res, @Uncle Dan, @AceDeuce

    , @Ian Smith
    @Clyde

    Does the FIRE economy explain the Europe/Africa gap?

    Replies: @Gaius Gracchus

    , @epebble
    @Clyde

    All those things and Technology too. With the birth of automation, value of physical labor is very low compared to "thinking" skills. So the trifecta of technology, globalization and immigration means those who primarily relied on physical labor and short and shallow learning curve have no value in modern economy. Unfortunately, that may be a third to half of labor force with a disproportionate share of blacks and may be Hispanics too. So we are compelled to have, (in the absence of major wealth transfer) a bimodal economy with Europe/Asia characteristics on top half and Africa/South America characteristics at the bottom half.

    Replies: @Clyde, @anon

    , @Barbarossa
    @Clyde

    You are correct. I was waiting to see who would mention this point. Because they were at the lowest rung of the economic ladder after the Great Migration, blacks were reliant on those industrial jobs to gain a position in the middle class. Needless to say, globalization put a kibosh on that prospect.

    As JohnnyWalker123 points out, this is not just a black problem. I live in what one could consider a white rural slum area. Unfortunately, the white working class is turning to many of the same destructive patterns that have dominated black urban areas. Whites are just a couple decades behind in terms of dysfunction.

    Replies: @Clyde

  4. Anonymous[122] • Disclaimer says:

    Of course, the powers-that-be never but never mention the deleterious effect of massive third world immigration – particularly from Mexico and central America – on the bargaining power of black labor.

    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Anonymous


    Of course, the powers-that-be never but never mention the deleterious effect of massive third world immigration – particularly from Mexico and central America – on the bargaining power of black labor.
     
    The major influx of illegals now coming over the southern border appear to be Africans and other blacks. One of the Africans questioned by reporter Bill Melugin said that he’s headed to Connecticut. Others on buses headed for Massachusetts. Somehow word has gotten out to Africans that solidly blue-state New England is the place to go. But hey, apparently there can never be en0ugh Instacart shoppers or Amazon contract drivers (“Delivery Service Partners”) to cater to the baby boomers in with cushy lifestyles.

    Indian immigrant and tech billionaire founder and CEO of Instacart:


    https://www.boldbusiness.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Apoorva-Mehta-Instacart.jpg



    When we used to get European immigrants they built our manned space program and atomic energy programs:
    https://www.ancient-code.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Von-Braun-1024x576.jpg
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AMPlN0HeIyg/TviVmWK-PTI/AAAAAAAAASM/6hyBa8cjiOg/s1600/Enrico-Fermi-4eca7004c087f.jpg

     


     
    , @Buzz Mohawk
    @Anonymous


    ... the deleterious effect of massive third world immigration – particularly from Mexico and central America – on the bargaining power of black labor.
     
    You hit the nail on the head. That's pretty much all of it, right there.
  5. Woke district attorneys refuse to prosecute increasingly brazen shoplifting offenses in the few remaining bricks-and-mortar retail stores. In many jurisdictions, the resulting financial losses are so great that these retail stores close, with the loss of contact jobs. More shopping moves online, boosting the financial returns of shareholders in companies like Amazon, but diminishing economic opportunity for contact workers, which disproportionately harms law-abiding blacks.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Voltarde

    In Seattle, and perhaps elsewhere, Amazon has 7/11 style convenience stores where no cash is used (Amazon Go). On entry to the store, you must “badge in/swipe in” on you smart phone App and everything you walk out with after that is automagically charged to your existing account. No shop lifting can occur.

    I have wondered if the move toward extremely lenient “Soros style” DAs in our cities, is not (in part) a long term strategy to move retail to the Amazon go model and ‘corner’ the technology of cashless retail inventory control . Perhaps like, as some suspect, BLM is really part of an attempt to manipulate urban real estate prices or perhaps, better, the tire companies after world war 2, buying up and removing public transit in the sf Bay Area to promote automobile travel. Create a need where none existed.

    Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter, @The Last Real Calvinist

    , @Brutusale
    @Voltarde

    In urban settings, the retail industry is dominated by Asians of different sorts, and we all know how much they like to hire blacks. Or whites.

  6. Graph says that 1990, not 1980, was the turning year. If we are to believe the astrobiology of Chizhevsky-Ertel, that was the point in time when evidently fake, lying & parasitic systems & groups were exposed or destroyed as such (Communism, BIPOC etc.).

    Blacks in the US (and all around the world) are not cut to their real measure only because of rot & hypocrisy of affluent White civilization which feeds all that is either at lower level of human development or deviates from the common-sense norm or is simply alien, anti-Western civilizational matrix (blacks, Gypsies, homosexualism, Islam, perhaps China,…)

  7. In other words, being a high-IQ black man is a good gig in modern America, presumably due to affirmative action. If you are black and have a 125 IQ,

    These high-ability Blacks seem very valuable to elite institutions. The competition to employ them is quite intense. A little bit like a slave market. There’s a opportunity for a website to buy and sell these valuable assets – here’s a sample ad:
    “Kinte Kunte. Fine African specimen. Very good at equations. Will appear splendidly in promotional literature”

    19th century European royal families often had a black from the colonies employed as an retainer and symbol of colonial power. They looked good in their paintings, alongside symbols of wealth and well-bred dogs and horses.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @TelfoedJohn


    These high-ability Blacks seem very valuable to elite institutions. The competition to employ them is quite intense. A little bit like a slave market.
     
    With the same ethereal "value". Yet another Ponzi scheme. Or Madoff.
  8. Sales is a lot of hard work. Doesn’t matter if it’s securities brokerage, real estate, business banking, B2B, etc.

    You often spend the first 10-15 years cold calling and hustling, usually for very little money. Most end up washing out and leaving the profession. Hours are long. However, the few who remain have usually ended up building a book of business, which then generates a reliable income stream for the rest of the salesman’s career. A lucky few make astronomical sums of money.

    If you have highly specialized knowledge of a big-ticket item, you can do very well.

    Unfortunately, Black Men are too lazy and impatient to spend their years grinding through sales. Too much work and too much rejection. Black Men want FAST money and lots of excitement. So they’re drawn to entertainment, sports, and music. They’re also drawn to cash-rich illegal activities, like drug dealing, robbery, and pimping.

    A more stereotypical salesman is the White frat guy (or sorority girl) who used to play lacrosse. They have the “alpha” personalities and confidence necessary to sell, but they’re serious enough for a decade-long grind. They also have sufficient “polish.” Some sell to friends or business contacts of their affluent parents.

    Lots of White sorority girls make $200k/yr commissions selling pharmaceuticals to horny male doctors. They actually were a major factor behind the opioid epidemic.

    If you want to sell, be slim and fit. Look good in a suit. Dress well. Be clean cut. Get an expensive haircut. Buy a Rolex watch. Keep your teeth white. Appearances are everything. Lots of successful sales professionals are physically attractive.

    • Agree: AceDeuce
    • Thanks: Hhsiii
    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @JohnnyWalker123

    I can recall hanging out with the top salesman at our market research/software company in the 1990s. He'd married the prettiest girl at the company. He had a French name, like Jean-Claude Killy. A cool guy.

    Replies: @Desiderius

  9. @Redneck farmer
    I wonder if facing criticism of his immigration policy, President Biden will blurt out, "We need Hispanics to run out the brothers"!
    As for the wealth gap, I wonder if David French is willing to live in an otherwise all-black neighborhood? Maybe he would find evidence for why the gap exists.

    Replies: @Mr Mox, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @PaceLaw

    “We need Hispanics to run out the brothers”!

    At first glance I read it as “We need Hispanics to run our brothels”!

    • Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter
    @Mr Mox

    We don't need any more pervs on this site. I got it covered.

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Mr Mox



    “We need Hispanics to run out the brothers”!
     
    At first glance I read it as “We need Hispanics to run our brothels”!
     
    The scary thing is that Biden might even say that in real life. I'm sure Hunter would, if he hasn't already.
  10. There seems to be a high demand for working class men able to work independently. I see tradesmans vans driving by with ‘help wanted’ signs on them. They are often for HVAC technicians or some other specialized home improvement company ( garage door openers, window blinds installer are two I saw in recent days).

    Obviously these are both ‘contact’ jobs and fairly high level cognitive jobs. You are going into someone’s home and you had better be able to trouble shoot and make a repair or replace a part or take accurate measurements before you start drilling into people’s walls or ceilings. It is not an invitation to come on to the housewife or slip an expensive geegaws into your toolbox on the way out which is, probably why I see so few negro men driving those contractor vans.

    • Replies: @Eric Novak
    @UNIT472

    HVAC techs aren’t working class. I know several stationary engineers who earn six figures in their large-metro steamfitters local. One earns more than his spouse, a real estate lawyer.

  11. @Clyde
    White/black wage gap increased because:
    The FIRE economy geared up during the Ronald Reagan years as we emerged from the sharp dip when RR came into office. The FIRE economy lead into offshoring our factories, which really ramped up after the fall of communism in Russia and Eastern Europe. Without an external enemy Wall Street and our great titans of industry were allowed to run wild with offshoring. Billions and trillions were made by the above people as they sold out America and the white working class. Black workers too.

    FIRE economy -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRE_economy

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @Ian Smith, @epebble, @Barbarossa

    It’s less well known that the deindustrialization of the last 40 years has created White slums throughout the Rustbelt. Lots of “hillbilly ghettos” in these places.

    The inhabitants of these White slums may not shoot and kill each other that often, but there’s a lot of alcoholism, drug addiction, homelessness, mental illness, suicide, family breakdown, and property crime. Sort of like Native reservations, but less craziness.

    The problems of urban Blacks get a lot of news coverage, but the hard-hit Whites of the Rustbelt often fly under the radar.

    • Replies: @Feryl
    @JohnnyWalker123

    There was a degree of awareness of post-industrial decay, but the nature of it and the causes of it have both been distorted since NAFTA was passed in 1993 with the cooperation of Republicans, Southern Democrats, and a relative handful of the most crooked globalist Northern Democrats (like Pelosi).

    Since the mid-90's, the notion has set in that these places were always unattractive and dysfunctional to some degree, it's been so many years past the era when these regions were the powerhouse of American industry. There's also the fallacy of acting like growth in the Sunbelt off-sets Northern decay (in reality the average American worker of all regions has collectively seen pay and benefits decline as living costs rise).

    Replies: @Anonymous

    , @Mark G.
    @JohnnyWalker123


    It’s less well known that the deindustrialization of the last 40 years has created White slums throughout the Rustbelt. Lots of “hillbilly ghettos” in these places.
     
    Here in Indiana there existed a "Gas Belt". In the late 19th century the largest natural gas field in the country was discovered here. An especially large number of factories located here to take advantage of that, creating towns like Anderson, Muncie, Kokomo and Marion. Even after the gas ran out, these towns continued to be used as locations for manufacturing and were prosperous into the nineteen sixties. For example, part of that wealth was used to build high school basketball gyms, resulting in basketball crazy Indiana having 7 of the 10 largest basketball gyms in the country.

    These towns are in a sad state now with the factories gone and high unemployment rates. If you go to the downtown areas you see nothing built since the sixties and lots of old decaying buildings. Very few people ever visit them so they are not even aware of the situation. My brother in law lost his factory job in Anderson in the late nineteen seventies, never found another good job, and died prematurely in his early sixties from alcoholism. This same situation exists to a certain extent throughout the Midwest.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @res
    @JohnnyWalker123

    A good place to link this book.

    https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/hillbilly-elegy-j-d-vance/1123457475?ean=9780062300553

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    , @Uncle Dan
    @JohnnyWalker123

    That’s where the sorority girls’ doctor’s opioids are consumed.

    , @AceDeuce
    @JohnnyWalker123

    I'm originally from one of those areas you speak of--over the past 20 years, every lower middle class White youth ("Working class", these days would be a misnomer for those people) has gone full-blown wigger. The 20 years before that stripped that community of any economic security, got them on drugs and "free sex" with "no strings attached", which means that they were 3/4 of the way to wiggerdom. With predictable results.

    I call them "Mutant Whites" or "Feral Whites" They are lost and doomed. And no one cares. Even so, they commit a mere fraction of serious crimes compared to negroes.

    Replies: @JohnPlywood, @JohnnyWalker123

  12. @JohnnyWalker123
    https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1420273527291273221

    Replies: @Mike Tre

    Anti-vaxxers are negroes?

    • LOL: Redneck farmer
    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Mike Tre

    Yes.

    https://static01.nyt.com/images/2021/03/04/us/vaccine-racial-inequality-promo-1614867364013/vaccine-racial-inequality-promo-1614867364013-facebookJumbo.png

    , @Athletic and Whitesplosive
    @Mike Tre

    You joke, but yes. I'm not bullish on the long term efficacy and risk-reward picture of the corona vaccines (for most age groups) myself, but it's crazy what convincing blacks that whites are constantly conspiring to murder them will do to their trust in novel medical technologies largely created by whites.

  13. If you are black and have a 125 IQ, Goldman Sachs wants to talk to you. If you are white and have a 125 IQ, you’d better be the captain of an Ivy League squash team.

    If you are black and still clock in at 110, they might want to talk to you. I recall being asked by my management to talk to black candidates who were 100 at best just to keep the Diversity Queen upstairs happy, and I had little choice about taking a couple from Williams as interns.

    • Replies: @Goddard
    @The Alarmist


    I had little choice about taking a couple from Williams as interns.
     
    You had a choice. You could have walked away.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

  14. Not hard to see, around 1980 inequality generally increased due to very specific political policy decisions that came in with Reagan and whose essential logic and spirit remain dominant today. Blacks are generally poorer than whites and so the black-white gap would tend to increase.

    Also OT: Last night a ‘They/Them’ BPD skateboarder got ‘misgendered’ by the NBC commentator (Who was Australian and thus isn’t as browbeaten about transness as an American would be) and they were forced to apologise. She looks exactly like you’d imagine. Just a giant human red flag. The irony of her bringing up her suicide attempt as a teenager to try and make us go along with her maladptive coping mechanism is lost on the media.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/unapologetically-themself-nonbinary-olympian-shares-powerful-message-rcna1520

    The introduction of ‘street’ has generally been a disaster as the format isn’t interesting to watch at all. Hopefully it will be removed for 2024.

    • Replies: @Feryl
    @Altai

    Are they doing the half pipe at this Olympics? It far more resembles the dynamic acrobatics of most gymnastic events than the stilted tedium of "street" skater confined to a boring course.

    , @res
    @Altai


    Not hard to see, around 1980 inequality generally increased due to very specific political policy decisions that came in with Reagan and whose essential logic and spirit remain dominant today. Blacks are generally poorer than whites and so the black-white gap would tend to increase.
     
    That sounds right to me. It would be interesting to see an analysis that looked at the trends in income over time for whites and blacks broken into income buckets. Does anyone know of a source for data like that?

    Replies: @Kratoklastes

  15. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Clyde

    It's less well known that the deindustrialization of the last 40 years has created White slums throughout the Rustbelt. Lots of "hillbilly ghettos" in these places.

    The inhabitants of these White slums may not shoot and kill each other that often, but there's a lot of alcoholism, drug addiction, homelessness, mental illness, suicide, family breakdown, and property crime. Sort of like Native reservations, but less craziness.

    The problems of urban Blacks get a lot of news coverage, but the hard-hit Whites of the Rustbelt often fly under the radar.

    Replies: @Feryl, @Mark G., @res, @Uncle Dan, @AceDeuce

    There was a degree of awareness of post-industrial decay, but the nature of it and the causes of it have both been distorted since NAFTA was passed in 1993 with the cooperation of Republicans, Southern Democrats, and a relative handful of the most crooked globalist Northern Democrats (like Pelosi).

    Since the mid-90’s, the notion has set in that these places were always unattractive and dysfunctional to some degree, it’s been so many years past the era when these regions were the powerhouse of American industry. There’s also the fallacy of acting like growth in the Sunbelt off-sets Northern decay (in reality the average American worker of all regions has collectively seen pay and benefits decline as living costs rise).

    • Agree: JohnnyWalker123
    • Replies: @Anonymous
    @Feryl

    Yeah right. Stop deflecting middle America's failures on to globalism/Bill Clinton. The divorce rate skyrocketed and fertility rate fell off a cliff back in the 70s. White men have always had a problem with drugs and alcohol. White women are insufferable, masculine, unattractive homewreckers. It was like this in the 70s in Middle America. It was like this in the USSR in the 70s. This is alwaya going to be an issue until you start practicing eugenics by replacing white women with Asian women and execute all drug users (including tobacco smokers).

  16. @JohnnyWalker123
    Sales is a lot of hard work. Doesn't matter if it's securities brokerage, real estate, business banking, B2B, etc.

    You often spend the first 10-15 years cold calling and hustling, usually for very little money. Most end up washing out and leaving the profession. Hours are long. However, the few who remain have usually ended up building a book of business, which then generates a reliable income stream for the rest of the salesman's career. A lucky few make astronomical sums of money.

    If you have highly specialized knowledge of a big-ticket item, you can do very well.

    Unfortunately, Black Men are too lazy and impatient to spend their years grinding through sales. Too much work and too much rejection. Black Men want FAST money and lots of excitement. So they're drawn to entertainment, sports, and music. They're also drawn to cash-rich illegal activities, like drug dealing, robbery, and pimping.

    A more stereotypical salesman is the White frat guy (or sorority girl) who used to play lacrosse. They have the "alpha" personalities and confidence necessary to sell, but they're serious enough for a decade-long grind. They also have sufficient "polish." Some sell to friends or business contacts of their affluent parents.

    Lots of White sorority girls make $200k/yr commissions selling pharmaceuticals to horny male doctors. They actually were a major factor behind the opioid epidemic.

    If you want to sell, be slim and fit. Look good in a suit. Dress well. Be clean cut. Get an expensive haircut. Buy a Rolex watch. Keep your teeth white. Appearances are everything. Lots of successful sales professionals are physically attractive.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    I can recall hanging out with the top salesman at our market research/software company in the 1990s. He’d married the prettiest girl at the company. He had a French name, like Jean-Claude Killy. A cool guy.

    • Agree: Desiderius
    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Steve Sailer

    It's an interesting skillset. My multi-millionaire uncle had set up a chicken coop and was selling eggs at the age of eight. It requires a capacity for I wouldn't call it empathy because it's the opposite of suffering but putting oneself in the shoes of the client/customer and visualizing what they'd enjoy/aspire to or just, you know, need is the genius of it.

    One the the forgotten aspects of being outgoing is that it actually involves literally going out of oneself and getting to know people and the way they look at the world. At one point he pretty much knew everybody in a town of 50,000 and as importantly they knew him.

    Replies: @res

  17. @Altai
    Not hard to see, around 1980 inequality generally increased due to very specific political policy decisions that came in with Reagan and whose essential logic and spirit remain dominant today. Blacks are generally poorer than whites and so the black-white gap would tend to increase.

    Also OT: Last night a 'They/Them' BPD skateboarder got 'misgendered' by the NBC commentator (Who was Australian and thus isn't as browbeaten about transness as an American would be) and they were forced to apologise. She looks exactly like you'd imagine. Just a giant human red flag. The irony of her bringing up her suicide attempt as a teenager to try and make us go along with her maladptive coping mechanism is lost on the media.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/unapologetically-themself-nonbinary-olympian-shares-powerful-message-rcna1520

    The introduction of 'street' has generally been a disaster as the format isn't interesting to watch at all. Hopefully it will be removed for 2024.

    Replies: @Feryl, @res

    Are they doing the half pipe at this Olympics? It far more resembles the dynamic acrobatics of most gymnastic events than the stilted tedium of “street” skater confined to a boring course.

  18. Simplest answer: government “help.”

    Hell isn’t a legit place without psychopath LBJ in it.

    • Agree: L in Atl hell
  19. Anon[385] • Disclaimer says:
    @Voltarde
    Woke district attorneys refuse to prosecute increasingly brazen shoplifting offenses in the few remaining bricks-and-mortar retail stores. In many jurisdictions, the resulting financial losses are so great that these retail stores close, with the loss of contact jobs. More shopping moves online, boosting the financial returns of shareholders in companies like Amazon, but diminishing economic opportunity for contact workers, which disproportionately harms law-abiding blacks.

    Replies: @Anon, @Brutusale

    In Seattle, and perhaps elsewhere, Amazon has 7/11 style convenience stores where no cash is used (Amazon Go). On entry to the store, you must “badge in/swipe in” on you smart phone App and everything you walk out with after that is automagically charged to your existing account. No shop lifting can occur.

    I have wondered if the move toward extremely lenient “Soros style” DAs in our cities, is not (in part) a long term strategy to move retail to the Amazon go model and ‘corner’ the technology of cashless retail inventory control . Perhaps like, as some suspect, BLM is really part of an attempt to manipulate urban real estate prices or perhaps, better, the tire companies after world war 2, buying up and removing public transit in the sf Bay Area to promote automobile travel. Create a need where none existed.

    • Agree: Desiderius, Voltarde
    • Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter
    @Anon

    The only way to stop grab and run at this kind of store is to have bullet proof double door entry/exit chambers like they use on banks in parts of Europe and in Latin America. I can just see the "false imprisonment" lawsuits from such a measure by these type stores.

    , @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Anon


    I have wondered if the move toward extremely lenient “Soros style” DAs in our cities, is not (in part) a long term strategy to move retail to the Amazon go model and ‘corner’ the technology of cashless retail inventory control .

     

    That is an interesting and plausible theory. I've been in those types of stores in mainland China, also. It's convenient, of course, but no cash = no anonymity.
  20. @Clyde
    White/black wage gap increased because:
    The FIRE economy geared up during the Ronald Reagan years as we emerged from the sharp dip when RR came into office. The FIRE economy lead into offshoring our factories, which really ramped up after the fall of communism in Russia and Eastern Europe. Without an external enemy Wall Street and our great titans of industry were allowed to run wild with offshoring. Billions and trillions were made by the above people as they sold out America and the white working class. Black workers too.

    FIRE economy -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRE_economy

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @Ian Smith, @epebble, @Barbarossa

    Does the FIRE economy explain the Europe/Africa gap?

    • Replies: @Gaius Gracchus
    @Ian Smith

    No. It explains the destruction of the lower and middle classes and the transformation of America into a failing state controlled by oligarchs.

  21. Everyone has their own favorite version:

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Wendy Kroy

    I get "John Henry" confused with "Sixteen Tons."

  22. Thanks, Steve.

    Keep building it. They will come. The contrast is every day more excruciating.

  23. @Steve Sailer
    @JohnnyWalker123

    I can recall hanging out with the top salesman at our market research/software company in the 1990s. He'd married the prettiest girl at the company. He had a French name, like Jean-Claude Killy. A cool guy.

    Replies: @Desiderius

    It’s an interesting skillset. My multi-millionaire uncle had set up a chicken coop and was selling eggs at the age of eight. It requires a capacity for I wouldn’t call it empathy because it’s the opposite of suffering but putting oneself in the shoes of the client/customer and visualizing what they’d enjoy/aspire to or just, you know, need is the genius of it.

    One the the forgotten aspects of being outgoing is that it actually involves literally going out of oneself and getting to know people and the way they look at the world. At one point he pretty much knew everybody in a town of 50,000 and as importantly they knew him.

    • Replies: @res
    @Desiderius

    Good points.


    It requires a capacity for I wouldn’t call it empathy because it’s the opposite of suffering but putting oneself in the shoes of the client/customer and visualizing what they’d enjoy/aspire to or just, you know, need is the genius of it.
     
    Breaking that up into what motivates the customer vs. what they need is thought provoking. If you consider those as separate skills I wonder how they compare in importance for the following measures.

    1. Sales success.
    2. Customer emotional satisfaction.
    3. Customer practical benefit.

    What do you think? I think a significant portion of salesman hate comes from salesmen who prioritize customer motivation over need, but am not sure how much that is simply a rational choice by the salesmen.

    P.S. First attempt at posting this was an error. Hopefully this is not a double post (I checked first).

    Replies: @Desiderius

  24. Look Steve

    We all know the answer to this question. Starting with the Obama Presidency, Blacks wanted to be in a political coalition with Asians…Muslims…Caribbeans….and Africans. And Blacks did this so they could force reparations on Whitey. Post-1965 nonwhite legal immigrants and their US Born Nonwhite Children are scab labor that lowered the economic status of American Blacks…but Blacks blame…murder…and rape Whitey instead. There are now permanent irreconcilable differences between White Working Class Americans and Blacks.

    At this point in time, we shouldn’t care about the economic well-being of Blacks for Blacks have brought the nonwhite scab labor upon themselves…..

  25. “In other words, being a high-IQ black man is a good gig in modern America, presumably due to affirmative action. If you are black and have a 125 IQ, Goldman Sachs wants to talk to you.”

    I sometimes think that black people in America are dividing into two groups: blacks who do fine in big companies and government jobs, and blacks who are stuck in cities like Baltimore, Detroit and Chicago.

    Blacks have been assortatively mating for the past couple of generations just like whites; black women who went to college often marry black men who did the same. These blacks will do fine.

    It’s the blacks with 90 and lower IQs who form a culture that is substantially different from that of Main Street America. It’s getting more distinct as time (and generations) go on. And it won’t matter how much money is poured into it. Nothing will moderate the resulting wage gap, especially since employers will just rely on politicians to supply lots of hard-working illegals to do non-college jobs.

  26. CivNats and Muh Thomas Sowell tell us it was because Blacks had values back in the day.

    Lucille Bogan tells you all about it in this 1930s song (NSFW). By the way, the Rolling Stones must have stolen that line about a “dead man” from her.

  27. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Clyde

    It's less well known that the deindustrialization of the last 40 years has created White slums throughout the Rustbelt. Lots of "hillbilly ghettos" in these places.

    The inhabitants of these White slums may not shoot and kill each other that often, but there's a lot of alcoholism, drug addiction, homelessness, mental illness, suicide, family breakdown, and property crime. Sort of like Native reservations, but less craziness.

    The problems of urban Blacks get a lot of news coverage, but the hard-hit Whites of the Rustbelt often fly under the radar.

    Replies: @Feryl, @Mark G., @res, @Uncle Dan, @AceDeuce

    It’s less well known that the deindustrialization of the last 40 years has created White slums throughout the Rustbelt. Lots of “hillbilly ghettos” in these places.

    Here in Indiana there existed a “Gas Belt”. In the late 19th century the largest natural gas field in the country was discovered here. An especially large number of factories located here to take advantage of that, creating towns like Anderson, Muncie, Kokomo and Marion. Even after the gas ran out, these towns continued to be used as locations for manufacturing and were prosperous into the nineteen sixties. For example, part of that wealth was used to build high school basketball gyms, resulting in basketball crazy Indiana having 7 of the 10 largest basketball gyms in the country.

    These towns are in a sad state now with the factories gone and high unemployment rates. If you go to the downtown areas you see nothing built since the sixties and lots of old decaying buildings. Very few people ever visit them so they are not even aware of the situation. My brother in law lost his factory job in Anderson in the late nineteen seventies, never found another good job, and died prematurely in his early sixties from alcoholism. This same situation exists to a certain extent throughout the Midwest.

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @Mark G.

    Thanks.

    How much violent crime and public unruliness occurs in these areas? My general observation was that the streets were quiet. People seemed to stay home and self-medicate through drugs and/or alcohol. You don't really see menacing White tough guys or packs of surly White "youths."

    There wasn't much in social life or public community, beyond people eating at fast-food restaurants.
    Young people seem to have disappeared from the public spaces in these areas.

    Inner-city Blacks seem way louder, wilder, more out&about in public spaces, more extroverted, and more violent. Very different from Underclass Whites in personality (especially extroversion and tendency towards hair-trigger violence).

    Lots of the bar scene seems to have died.

  28. @Mr Mox
    @Redneck farmer

    “We need Hispanics to run out the brothers”!

    At first glance I read it as “We need Hispanics to run our brothels”!

    Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter, @Reg Cæsar

    We don’t need any more pervs on this site. I got it covered.

  29. @Anon
    @Voltarde

    In Seattle, and perhaps elsewhere, Amazon has 7/11 style convenience stores where no cash is used (Amazon Go). On entry to the store, you must “badge in/swipe in” on you smart phone App and everything you walk out with after that is automagically charged to your existing account. No shop lifting can occur.

    I have wondered if the move toward extremely lenient “Soros style” DAs in our cities, is not (in part) a long term strategy to move retail to the Amazon go model and ‘corner’ the technology of cashless retail inventory control . Perhaps like, as some suspect, BLM is really part of an attempt to manipulate urban real estate prices or perhaps, better, the tire companies after world war 2, buying up and removing public transit in the sf Bay Area to promote automobile travel. Create a need where none existed.

    Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter, @The Last Real Calvinist

    The only way to stop grab and run at this kind of store is to have bullet proof double door entry/exit chambers like they use on banks in parts of Europe and in Latin America. I can just see the “false imprisonment” lawsuits from such a measure by these type stores.

  30. David French spends an awful lot of time telling people that he is a conservative. Seems as if he is insecure that anyone could actually believe it at this point.

  31. Anonymous[232] • Disclaimer says:
    @Anonymous
    Of course, the powers-that-be never but never mention the deleterious effect of massive third world immigration - particularly from Mexico and central America - on the bargaining power of black labor.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Buzz Mohawk

    Of course, the powers-that-be never but never mention the deleterious effect of massive third world immigration – particularly from Mexico and central America – on the bargaining power of black labor.

    The major influx of illegals now coming over the southern border appear to be Africans and other blacks. One of the Africans questioned by reporter Bill Melugin said that he’s headed to Connecticut. Others on buses headed for Massachusetts. Somehow word has gotten out to Africans that solidly blue-state New England is the place to go. But hey, apparently there can never be en0ugh Instacart shoppers or Amazon contract drivers (“Delivery Service Partners”) to cater to the baby boomers in with cushy lifestyles.

    Indian immigrant and tech billionaire founder and CEO of Instacart:

    When we used to get European immigrants they built our manned space program and atomic energy programs:

  32. @Redneck farmer
    I wonder if facing criticism of his immigration policy, President Biden will blurt out, "We need Hispanics to run out the brothers"!
    As for the wealth gap, I wonder if David French is willing to live in an otherwise all-black neighborhood? Maybe he would find evidence for why the gap exists.

    Replies: @Mr Mox, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @PaceLaw

    I wonder if facing criticism of his immigration policy, President Biden will blurt out, “We need Hispanics to run out the brothers”!

    I’m paraphrasing, but a few months ago he said something about after whites becoming a minority, blacks and Hispanics are going to have to learn how to get along.

    It was a classic Biden gaffe, in which his super-ego was too slow to catch up to his id’s speaking extemporaneously. Biden’s political id gets especially frenetic around blacks, Hispanics and gays. (cue Biden’s “around the clock sex – come on, man!” live comment to Anderson Cooper).

    It sort of reveals that he knows that blacks and Hispanics are fair-weather allies held together by hatred of prole whites stoked by . . . people like Biden.

  33. What a fascinating and fun set of comments, responding to a provocative essay topic. They are always great. A pub. Better than a college course at a fancy college, and tuition-free (except for donating; no, I am not Steve’s cousin). Thanks, Steve, Ron, and commenters. That’s all, just saying thanks.

  34. Guess #1: see Daniel Patrick Moynihan

  35. @Clyde
    White/black wage gap increased because:
    The FIRE economy geared up during the Ronald Reagan years as we emerged from the sharp dip when RR came into office. The FIRE economy lead into offshoring our factories, which really ramped up after the fall of communism in Russia and Eastern Europe. Without an external enemy Wall Street and our great titans of industry were allowed to run wild with offshoring. Billions and trillions were made by the above people as they sold out America and the white working class. Black workers too.

    FIRE economy -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRE_economy

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @Ian Smith, @epebble, @Barbarossa

    All those things and Technology too. With the birth of automation, value of physical labor is very low compared to “thinking” skills. So the trifecta of technology, globalization and immigration means those who primarily relied on physical labor and short and shallow learning curve have no value in modern economy. Unfortunately, that may be a third to half of labor force with a disproportionate share of blacks and may be Hispanics too. So we are compelled to have, (in the absence of major wealth transfer) a bimodal economy with Europe/Asia characteristics on top half and Africa/South America characteristics at the bottom half.

    • Replies: @Clyde
    @epebble


    those who primarily relied on physical labor and short and shallow learning curve have no value in modern economy. Unfortunately, that may be a third to half of labor force with a disproportionate share of blacks and may be Hispanics too.
     
    No maybes! Definitely Hispanics too, the non-educated kind from Mexico/Central America we are encouraging to jump our border during the Biden/Harris/Obama administration. Exactly those whose labor is in dire surplus these days, are the ones Biden/Harris/Obama want more of and are acting on this. And even better, we know we have people massing at our Mexican border from all over South America, Africa, Asian Muslim nations.

    The evil Dems have a plan to crash America as we know it. Make America into a hellscape, except for the well off in their gated communities and the billionaires. Trump provided relief from this invasion via immigration anarchy, no matter what his flaws. The prissy, stuck up people here who knock Donald Trump, they can FOAD, then go off to the devil.
    , @anon
    @epebble

    Yes, globalization and automation killed a lot of jobs for black men. Then they had to compete with Hispanic men for labor jobs, which they felt was beneath them. This latter reason is what older black men themselves tell me, and it seems pretty reasonable.

  36. I think the mania for insisting that college is an attainable and desirable goal for every high school graduate has something to do with it as well. This was sold as a sure fire way into economic security (and not just to blacks) and our student loan system coupled with affirmative action ensures that year after year millions of ‘students’ are fed into the maw of the higher education system without much consideration of whether leveraging up 18 year olds with SAT scores in the 30th percentile with tens of thousands in debt is a compassionate much less reasonable thing to do.

    Without this bizarre fixation, how many blacks would have simply moved into the workforce at 18 and started in trades that require little to no out of pocket costs, just a willingness to show up and learn on the job and work your way into the lower middle class? Instead we have lots of blacks walking around with a college degree that cost them a fortune, were obtained after 5-7 years of effort, and steered them into white collar-ish jobs in which they hit their income ceiling very early.

    Our higher ed system needs to be razed to the ground, and our elementary and secondary system needs to be more honest with students about the potential job pathways open to them and the schooling they should receive to help them in that pursuit.

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @Arclight

    It’s not ours.

    Yet.

    , @Rob
    @Arclight


    our elementary and secondary system needs to be more honest with students about the potential job pathways open to them and the schooling they should receive to help them in that pursuit.
     
    But what does society want them to do? We exported lots of factories, where the could at least sweep the floors, and in-sourced something like, what, 150 million Mexicans (including American-born children) to do all the labor most blacks could perform. Why? Same reasons for both. Some geopolitics, but mostly because capitalists (factories) and the upper middle class+ (Mexicans) wanted cheaper, more docile labor than they currently had.

    Without the factories driving up wages, and and the glut of idle labor produced by outsourcing, wages in other sectors that competed with factories also collapsed. Remember “WalMart jobs” and “McJobs”? Those have not been replaced by anything better. The former workers’ (and their descendants’) IQ sets a limit on what kind of work they can do. The incompetence of affirmative action blacks, who in the workforce only have a half σ gap with white colleagues, but perform much less well, proves this. Sure, there was the occasional genius working in a factory, and the tradesmen certainly had strong visuospatisal IQ, but factories were not fantastic jobs, so people who could do other things usually did.

    The political donor class, and therefore the country, have a plan for what the left half (and the bar shifts a bit to the right every day) They have a plan for the people put out of work. It goes by the acronym FOAD for the whites. It goes by “vote blue no matter who” for blacks.

    The huge problem we have is that the capitalists’ lapdogs in the media sold us a fantasy vision where Americans would be doing the “jobs of the future” which maybe could not even be conceived today, they said then. As it turns out, we might have jobs of the future - biologists could make huge breakthroughs - and rejuvenation clinics would be charging rich people from around the world millions of dollars to be young again. But computer stuff - the underlying hardware where the value ultimately resides? Almost entirely made in Asia, by Asian hands, and overseen by Asian brains. The smartphones are cheap now, we can afford to add a trillion/year to deficit now because China still buys debt and wants dollars. Why? Because every rich man wants part of his wealth in dollars, just in case the government frowns upon him. The Chinese government buys debt at near-zero interests rates, because they want us to give them the rest of our high tech. Never interrupt your opponent while he is making a mistake. When the dollar crisis happens - I think it pretty much has to, but who knows when - then when the dust settles, no capital, no physical capital will disappear and no knowledge will disappear. China will still be rich, they can make things, but America will not be, as we will be have lost the know how, and dollars are worth much less.

    Wow, that was a digression. Schools cannot be honest with kids, because the truth is awful. As to recognizing that ability is largely determined by genes and luck? Peopl who think that prolly don’t become teachers.
    , @Uncle Dan
    @Arclight

    Whether or not he or she gets any marketable skills, today’s college grad certainly gets brainwashed, and then votes the way his profs vote.

    , @Hhsiii
    @Arclight

    My wife was talking to relatives about the relative difficulty of getting into Rutgers (we are moving and although my kids are 5, 7 and 12 the mrs. plans ahead).

    My brother in law said Rutgers acceptance rate is 60%. He added “If you can’t get in there you shouldn’t be going to university.”

  37. If Wokeness is South-centric, why have the worst riots been outside the South?

  38. tastes change

    My theory is that recent generations of blacks simply won’t do the jobs their ancestors were largely restricted to within living memory, namely domestic service, cleaning, and outdoor manual labor. I can’t blame them too much.

    Inflation helps borrowers, so taking home equity might be less visible.

  39. Overlay graphs of welfare law change impact that broke up households, of single mom births and of abortion trends. There is a malign influence of government policy aimed at citizens, with much aiding and abetting.

  40. Not just live as we saw yesterday and this past May-Jan.

    • Replies: @Anon7
    @Desiderius

    Nobody is as white supremacist as a liberal white democrat; their guilty projection makes them think Republicans are the evil ones.

    The lefty Democrat Party race grift has been working smooth as silk for them for a century - why should they change it?

    In the south, maybe five percent of whites held slaves, but many whites felt guilty about the practice. Twentieth century Democrats offered a deal: whites could hold onto their feeling of superiority over blacks, while at the same time assuaging their guilt by offering special treatment and tax money to blacks.

    Blacks in turn were infantilized, treated as children; this continues today. The education and SJWs treat black children in ways that whites would never stand for; everything they do is fine, they don't need to learn to be on time, they don't need to learn to read and write standard english, they don't need to fit into business culture.

    The result - blacks can never catch up, and whites feel guilt - drives Democrat victories again and again. This cycle is reinforced by unlimited illegal immigration, which is happily encouraged by Democrat Party hacks, because black opportunity just vanishes. This cycle must be broken before we lose our country.

  41. @Arclight
    I think the mania for insisting that college is an attainable and desirable goal for every high school graduate has something to do with it as well. This was sold as a sure fire way into economic security (and not just to blacks) and our student loan system coupled with affirmative action ensures that year after year millions of 'students' are fed into the maw of the higher education system without much consideration of whether leveraging up 18 year olds with SAT scores in the 30th percentile with tens of thousands in debt is a compassionate much less reasonable thing to do.

    Without this bizarre fixation, how many blacks would have simply moved into the workforce at 18 and started in trades that require little to no out of pocket costs, just a willingness to show up and learn on the job and work your way into the lower middle class? Instead we have lots of blacks walking around with a college degree that cost them a fortune, were obtained after 5-7 years of effort, and steered them into white collar-ish jobs in which they hit their income ceiling very early.

    Our higher ed system needs to be razed to the ground, and our elementary and secondary system needs to be more honest with students about the potential job pathways open to them and the schooling they should receive to help them in that pursuit.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Rob, @Uncle Dan, @Hhsiii

    It’s not ours.

    Yet.

  42. I’d look more at white levelling off and/or decline than black anything – gaps have two sides that may move.

  43. Anon[232] • Disclaimer says:

    So what you guys are saying is that globalism, regulation, etc. helped white people, hurt black people.

    How do you not put two and two together, and support globalism, regulation, etc?

    I’ll answer that question for you: you’re not intelligent, you’re ruled by an emotional tendency to blind defiance and you can’t think for yourselves.

    Imagine actually believing black people were going to succeed under globalism.

  44. Anonymous[232] • Disclaimer says:
    @Feryl
    @JohnnyWalker123

    There was a degree of awareness of post-industrial decay, but the nature of it and the causes of it have both been distorted since NAFTA was passed in 1993 with the cooperation of Republicans, Southern Democrats, and a relative handful of the most crooked globalist Northern Democrats (like Pelosi).

    Since the mid-90's, the notion has set in that these places were always unattractive and dysfunctional to some degree, it's been so many years past the era when these regions were the powerhouse of American industry. There's also the fallacy of acting like growth in the Sunbelt off-sets Northern decay (in reality the average American worker of all regions has collectively seen pay and benefits decline as living costs rise).

    Replies: @Anonymous

    Yeah right. Stop deflecting middle America’s failures on to globalism/Bill Clinton. The divorce rate skyrocketed and fertility rate fell off a cliff back in the 70s. White men have always had a problem with drugs and alcohol. White women are insufferable, masculine, unattractive homewreckers. It was like this in the 70s in Middle America. It was like this in the USSR in the 70s. This is alwaya going to be an issue until you start practicing eugenics by replacing white women with Asian women and execute all drug users (including tobacco smokers).

  45. @The Alarmist

    If you are black and have a 125 IQ, Goldman Sachs wants to talk to you. If you are white and have a 125 IQ, you’d better be the captain of an Ivy League squash team.

     

    If you are black and still clock in at 110, they might want to talk to you. I recall being asked by my management to talk to black candidates who were 100 at best just to keep the Diversity Queen upstairs happy, and I had little choice about taking a couple from Williams as interns.

    Replies: @Goddard

    I had little choice about taking a couple from Williams as interns.

    You had a choice. You could have walked away.

    • Replies: @The Alarmist
    @Goddard

    There’s a reason they call them “golden handcuffs.” I did not have my FU money at that point, and I wasn’t about to throw away the opportunity to get it.

    Replies: @Goddard

  46. @Voltarde
    Woke district attorneys refuse to prosecute increasingly brazen shoplifting offenses in the few remaining bricks-and-mortar retail stores. In many jurisdictions, the resulting financial losses are so great that these retail stores close, with the loss of contact jobs. More shopping moves online, boosting the financial returns of shareholders in companies like Amazon, but diminishing economic opportunity for contact workers, which disproportionately harms law-abiding blacks.

    Replies: @Anon, @Brutusale

    In urban settings, the retail industry is dominated by Asians of different sorts, and we all know how much they like to hire blacks. Or whites.

  47. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Clyde

    It's less well known that the deindustrialization of the last 40 years has created White slums throughout the Rustbelt. Lots of "hillbilly ghettos" in these places.

    The inhabitants of these White slums may not shoot and kill each other that often, but there's a lot of alcoholism, drug addiction, homelessness, mental illness, suicide, family breakdown, and property crime. Sort of like Native reservations, but less craziness.

    The problems of urban Blacks get a lot of news coverage, but the hard-hit Whites of the Rustbelt often fly under the radar.

    Replies: @Feryl, @Mark G., @res, @Uncle Dan, @AceDeuce

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @res

    The book provides an interesting glimpse into the culture of working&lower class Appalachians. The author mostly touches on his family's history in West Virginia, but I recall him mentioning that they lived in Ohio too. Much of the book focuses on the experiences of rural Appalachians.

    Replies: @res

  48. res says:
    @Altai
    Not hard to see, around 1980 inequality generally increased due to very specific political policy decisions that came in with Reagan and whose essential logic and spirit remain dominant today. Blacks are generally poorer than whites and so the black-white gap would tend to increase.

    Also OT: Last night a 'They/Them' BPD skateboarder got 'misgendered' by the NBC commentator (Who was Australian and thus isn't as browbeaten about transness as an American would be) and they were forced to apologise. She looks exactly like you'd imagine. Just a giant human red flag. The irony of her bringing up her suicide attempt as a teenager to try and make us go along with her maladptive coping mechanism is lost on the media.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/unapologetically-themself-nonbinary-olympian-shares-powerful-message-rcna1520

    The introduction of 'street' has generally been a disaster as the format isn't interesting to watch at all. Hopefully it will be removed for 2024.

    Replies: @Feryl, @res

    Not hard to see, around 1980 inequality generally increased due to very specific political policy decisions that came in with Reagan and whose essential logic and spirit remain dominant today. Blacks are generally poorer than whites and so the black-white gap would tend to increase.

    That sounds right to me. It would be interesting to see an analysis that looked at the trends in income over time for whites and blacks broken into income buckets. Does anyone know of a source for data like that?

    • Replies: @Kratoklastes
    @res

    The Census Board. Table H1 in Historical Income Tables: Households.

    Gives quintiles, and the 95th percentile, by race, going back to 1967.

    I'm not aware of any API that enables importing the data into an SQL variant, but it would surprise me if there wasn't one.

    Replies: @res

  49. I thought it was the automation of middle class office jobs and the wave of forced girl employees lowering the wages of still existing jobs.

  50. Rob says:

    In other words, low-IQ black men have increasingly dropped out of the workforce, and are often in prison or on the street. On the other hand, those black men who do work these days are smarter than back in 1960 when practically all black men had jobs.

    I think this is an aspect of urban liberals’ support of various money.transfers and community organizer-type of black-on-black, like gang violence prevention liaison. Urban liberals, who tended to be fairly somart, do not want want to deal with the bottom x% of blacks. They are uncomfortable with blacks in personal service jobs, and find the thuggy sort of blacks both scary and a reminder of their personal failure to walk the walk on integrating blacks into white society, for younger and Twitty progs [iPad tried to correct that to “prongs”], and are a reminder of the failure of their biggest goal in 1960-odd. They have taken the acceptance of open homosexuality, at least in the top 25% by SES, as a consolation prize. But that was not on many peoples’ radar screen. No one marched for gay marriage or had ‘orientation freedom riders’ traveling to states where they had blacks for a long time, but for their treatment of gays instead.

    I wonder, though, the corporate woke folks affirm their conmitment to having black decorative pieces all throughout the company and that BLM is their most deeply-held belief, but it seems to me that people don’t have to issue press releases about that. Their commitments are obvious through the company’s action – their most sacred value is maximizing the price of top executives’ stock options. In France, Macron, I believe, said France would not be France without her Muslims and Africans, how strongly held is that sort of belief outside the Jewish population? Do the majority, or even a large minority, really prefer the joys of racial diversity to relative homogeneity and meritocracy? What Steve calls the Restaurant Rationale is commonly cited, but they they can never come up with a second reason they like diversity, whereas almost anyone can come up with tons of (non-racist, even) reasons to want the immivasion to go backwards.

    If the feds and states got rid of all the racial non-discrimination laws, would Goldman Sachs really hire 110 IQ blacks for jobs where everyone non-black clocks 135 or so? Would they do it year after year, when all the numbers they run say they carry a hundred million dollar opportunity cost? They might hire two, and send them around to schools for optics, but keep them far away from the trading,

    Though it does strike me that the problems blacks experience in smarty-type jobs revolve around being the dumbest people in the room – “they don’t respect me” or “no one listens to my ideas” – if they rose to their level, so they were no more incompetent than non-blacks in the same jobs, I think the level of disrespect would be a lot lower, people might even listen to their ideas – which usually run along the lines of “let’s make [already existing] product or do service for black people.”

    • Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist
    @Rob

    Great post; all eminently sensible. But unfortunatley your conclusion is not plausible in today's cultural climate. If it were enacted, the Great World-Savers of our day, in their hot rage to impose their own degraded and heretical vision of post-Christian utopian diversity, would not daily see before them sufficient evidence of their salvific prowess.

  51. res says:
    @Desiderius
    @Steve Sailer

    It's an interesting skillset. My multi-millionaire uncle had set up a chicken coop and was selling eggs at the age of eight. It requires a capacity for I wouldn't call it empathy because it's the opposite of suffering but putting oneself in the shoes of the client/customer and visualizing what they'd enjoy/aspire to or just, you know, need is the genius of it.

    One the the forgotten aspects of being outgoing is that it actually involves literally going out of oneself and getting to know people and the way they look at the world. At one point he pretty much knew everybody in a town of 50,000 and as importantly they knew him.

    Replies: @res

    Good points.

    It requires a capacity for I wouldn’t call it empathy because it’s the opposite of suffering but putting oneself in the shoes of the client/customer and visualizing what they’d enjoy/aspire to or just, you know, need is the genius of it.

    Breaking that up into what motivates the customer vs. what they need is thought provoking. If you consider those as separate skills I wonder how they compare in importance for the following measures.

    1. Sales success.
    2. Customer emotional satisfaction.
    3. Customer practical benefit.

    What do you think? I think a significant portion of salesman hate comes from salesmen who prioritize customer motivation over need, but am not sure how much that is simply a rational choice by the salesmen.

    P.S. First attempt at posting this was an error. Hopefully this is not a double post (I checked first).

    • Replies: @Desiderius
    @res

    The ones who are the best at keeping them coming back are the ones who hit true need, sometimes needs the customer didn't even know they had or could hope to meet. My uncle was always finding people something slightly above their expectations that was just as slightly used where they could save 7 grand or whatever vs something shiny where the bloom quickly fell off of the rose.

    How good would blacks be at this sort of thing if it wasn't so denigrated as degrading for them to pursue such things nowadays? Pretty good I think. A lot of similarities to the big man skillset.

  52. Rob says:
    @Arclight
    I think the mania for insisting that college is an attainable and desirable goal for every high school graduate has something to do with it as well. This was sold as a sure fire way into economic security (and not just to blacks) and our student loan system coupled with affirmative action ensures that year after year millions of 'students' are fed into the maw of the higher education system without much consideration of whether leveraging up 18 year olds with SAT scores in the 30th percentile with tens of thousands in debt is a compassionate much less reasonable thing to do.

    Without this bizarre fixation, how many blacks would have simply moved into the workforce at 18 and started in trades that require little to no out of pocket costs, just a willingness to show up and learn on the job and work your way into the lower middle class? Instead we have lots of blacks walking around with a college degree that cost them a fortune, were obtained after 5-7 years of effort, and steered them into white collar-ish jobs in which they hit their income ceiling very early.

    Our higher ed system needs to be razed to the ground, and our elementary and secondary system needs to be more honest with students about the potential job pathways open to them and the schooling they should receive to help them in that pursuit.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Rob, @Uncle Dan, @Hhsiii

    our elementary and secondary system needs to be more honest with students about the potential job pathways open to them and the schooling they should receive to help them in that pursuit.

    But what does society want them to do? We exported lots of factories, where the could at least sweep the floors, and in-sourced something like, what, 150 million Mexicans (including American-born children) to do all the labor most blacks could perform. Why? Same reasons for both. Some geopolitics, but mostly because capitalists (factories) and the upper middle class+ (Mexicans) wanted cheaper, more docile labor than they currently had.

    [MORE]

    Without the factories driving up wages, and and the glut of idle labor produced by outsourcing, wages in other sectors that competed with factories also collapsed. Remember “WalMart jobs” and “McJobs”? Those have not been replaced by anything better. The former workers’ (and their descendants’) IQ sets a limit on what kind of work they can do. The incompetence of affirmative action blacks, who in the workforce only have a half σ gap with white colleagues, but perform much less well, proves this. Sure, there was the occasional genius working in a factory, and the tradesmen certainly had strong visuospatisal IQ, but factories were not fantastic jobs, so people who could do other things usually did.

    The political donor class, and therefore the country, have a plan for what the left half (and the bar shifts a bit to the right every day) They have a plan for the people put out of work. It goes by the acronym FOAD for the whites. It goes by “vote blue no matter who” for blacks.

    The huge problem we have is that the capitalists’ lapdogs in the media sold us a fantasy vision where Americans would be doing the “jobs of the future” which maybe could not even be conceived today, they said then. As it turns out, we might have jobs of the future – biologists could make huge breakthroughs – and rejuvenation clinics would be charging rich people from around the world millions of dollars to be young again. But computer stuff – the underlying hardware where the value ultimately resides? Almost entirely made in Asia, by Asian hands, and overseen by Asian brains. The smartphones are cheap now, we can afford to add a trillion/year to deficit now because China still buys debt and wants dollars. Why? Because every rich man wants part of his wealth in dollars, just in case the government frowns upon him. The Chinese government buys debt at near-zero interests rates, because they want us to give them the rest of our high tech. Never interrupt your opponent while he is making a mistake. When the dollar crisis happens – I think it pretty much has to, but who knows when – then when the dust settles, no capital, no physical capital will disappear and no knowledge will disappear. China will still be rich, they can make things, but America will not be, as we will be have lost the know how, and dollars are worth much less.

    Wow, that was a digression. Schools cannot be honest with kids, because the truth is awful. As to recognizing that ability is largely determined by genes and luck? Peopl who think that prolly don’t become teachers.

  53. @Redneck farmer
    I wonder if facing criticism of his immigration policy, President Biden will blurt out, "We need Hispanics to run out the brothers"!
    As for the wealth gap, I wonder if David French is willing to live in an otherwise all-black neighborhood? Maybe he would find evidence for why the gap exists.

    Replies: @Mr Mox, @Alec Leamas (working from home), @PaceLaw

    Living in an all-black neighborhood would truly be an eye-opening experience for David French. He would soon learn the value of the old saying “liberals mugged by reality,” and how true it still is today.

    Also, “Hispanics running the brothers out“ is really not a bad strategy at all. What is objectively true is that Hispanics have lower rates of murder and violent crime than African-Americans. Even a slight reduction in the murder/crime rate in a city could pay big dividends. Open-border immigration may well have benefits that have been under appreciated.

  54. [MORE]

    There was supposed to be a trucker’s strike sometime in late Nov to get the states to do the audits and I knew that was the one legit thing that could have changed the whole trajectory (Pence of course could have too but if you looked at his staff that was never happening) but when that didn’t materialize I knew it was over and evidently so did the Supreme Court.

    People should be protesting Black Rock in every walk of life. You never know when a preference cascade is going to hit.

  55. The category errors are so big that it’s hard to wrap one’s mind around them let alone refute them. It’s like trying to refute that the proposition that love weighs a little under a metric ton as long as it’s great-grandmother is fryhbdf.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Desiderius


    ...great-grandmother is fryhbdf.
     
    That domain name is still available:

    Domains fryh - full whois information - Whois lookup
    whoislookup.pro › fryh
    fryhbdf. fryhbef. fryhbff. fryhbgf. fryhbhf. fryhbif. fryhbjf. fryhbkf. fryhblf. fryhbmf. fryhbnf. fryhbof. fryhbpf. fryhbqf. fryhbrf. fryhbsf. fryhbtf.
     
  56. i can’t read steve anymore knowing he’s being dishonest/jewish about his mischlingitudinousness...i am nauseated.

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    @anon

    Don't let the door hit you in the butt.

  57. probably because during the civil rights era, the few minor actual systematic things holding them back were steadily changed, so that economically they pretty much improved as much as they could in a fair market economy by the 80s. after that there was no more big improvements to be made. economically things were as level as reasonable.

    after the early 80s, the effects of big immigration and visa workers began to be measurable in the economy, which a thousand economic studies have shown and concluded. it made everybody’s wages stagnate.

    looks like things peaked in 2000 for africans and now they’re going backwards, probably because they’re being replaced economically by mexicans.

  58. @TelfoedJohn

    In other words, being a high-IQ black man is a good gig in modern America, presumably due to affirmative action. If you are black and have a 125 IQ,
     
    These high-ability Blacks seem very valuable to elite institutions. The competition to employ them is quite intense. A little bit like a slave market. There’s a opportunity for a website to buy and sell these valuable assets – here’s a sample ad:
    “Kinte Kunte. Fine African specimen. Very good at equations. Will appear splendidly in promotional literature”

    19th century European royal families often had a black from the colonies employed as an retainer and symbol of colonial power. They looked good in their paintings, alongside symbols of wealth and well-bred dogs and horses.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    These high-ability Blacks seem very valuable to elite institutions. The competition to employ them is quite intense. A little bit like a slave market.

    With the same ethereal “value”. Yet another Ponzi scheme. Or Madoff.

  59. @Desiderius
    https://twitter.com/ManDaveJobGood/status/1420424385614204930?s=20

    The category errors are so big that it’s hard to wrap one’s mind around them let alone refute them. It’s like trying to refute that the proposition that love weighs a little under a metric ton as long as it’s great-grandmother is fryhbdf.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    …great-grandmother is fryhbdf.

    That domain name is still available:

    Domains fryh – full whois information – Whois lookup
    whoislookup.pro › fryh
    fryhbdf. fryhbef. fryhbff. fryhbgf. fryhbhf. fryhbif. fryhbjf. fryhbkf. fryhblf. fryhbmf. fryhbnf. fryhbof. fryhbpf. fryhbqf. fryhbrf. fryhbsf. fryhbtf.

  60. @Mike Tre
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Anti-vaxxers are negroes?

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    Yes.

  61. @Ian Smith
    @Clyde

    Does the FIRE economy explain the Europe/Africa gap?

    Replies: @Gaius Gracchus

    No. It explains the destruction of the lower and middle classes and the transformation of America into a failing state controlled by oligarchs.

  62. @res
    @JohnnyWalker123

    A good place to link this book.

    https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/hillbilly-elegy-j-d-vance/1123457475?ean=9780062300553

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    The book provides an interesting glimpse into the culture of working&lower class Appalachians. The author mostly touches on his family’s history in West Virginia, but I recall him mentioning that they lived in Ohio too. Much of the book focuses on the experiences of rural Appalachians.

    • Replies: @res
    @JohnnyWalker123

    How similar/different do you think the situations are in Appalachia and the Rust Belt regarding these phenomena?

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

  63. @Anonymous
    Of course, the powers-that-be never but never mention the deleterious effect of massive third world immigration - particularly from Mexico and central America - on the bargaining power of black labor.

    Replies: @Anonymous, @Buzz Mohawk

    … the deleterious effect of massive third world immigration – particularly from Mexico and central America – on the bargaining power of black labor.

    You hit the nail on the head. That’s pretty much all of it, right there.

    • Agree: Desiderius
  64. has to do more with fundamental changes in technology

    Any technology that you cannot understand (or even aspire to understand) is indistinguishable from magic.

    From the negro’s perspective then, you are asserting that white man’s magic has held the negro back.

    Or, in other words, you have made the case for CRT.

  65. @Desiderius
    https://twitter.com/pegobry/status/1420380644660686859?s=20

    Not just live as we saw yesterday and this past May-Jan.

    Replies: @Anon7

    Nobody is as white supremacist as a liberal white democrat; their guilty projection makes them think Republicans are the evil ones.

    The lefty Democrat Party race grift has been working smooth as silk for them for a century – why should they change it?

    In the south, maybe five percent of whites held slaves, but many whites felt guilty about the practice. Twentieth century Democrats offered a deal: whites could hold onto their feeling of superiority over blacks, while at the same time assuaging their guilt by offering special treatment and tax money to blacks.

    Blacks in turn were infantilized, treated as children; this continues today. The education and SJWs treat black children in ways that whites would never stand for; everything they do is fine, they don’t need to learn to be on time, they don’t need to learn to read and write standard english, they don’t need to fit into business culture.

    The result – blacks can never catch up, and whites feel guilt – drives Democrat victories again and again. This cycle is reinforced by unlimited illegal immigration, which is happily encouraged by Democrat Party hacks, because black opportunity just vanishes. This cycle must be broken before we lose our country.

  66. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Clyde

    It's less well known that the deindustrialization of the last 40 years has created White slums throughout the Rustbelt. Lots of "hillbilly ghettos" in these places.

    The inhabitants of these White slums may not shoot and kill each other that often, but there's a lot of alcoholism, drug addiction, homelessness, mental illness, suicide, family breakdown, and property crime. Sort of like Native reservations, but less craziness.

    The problems of urban Blacks get a lot of news coverage, but the hard-hit Whites of the Rustbelt often fly under the radar.

    Replies: @Feryl, @Mark G., @res, @Uncle Dan, @AceDeuce

    That’s where the sorority girls’ doctor’s opioids are consumed.

  67. @Arclight
    I think the mania for insisting that college is an attainable and desirable goal for every high school graduate has something to do with it as well. This was sold as a sure fire way into economic security (and not just to blacks) and our student loan system coupled with affirmative action ensures that year after year millions of 'students' are fed into the maw of the higher education system without much consideration of whether leveraging up 18 year olds with SAT scores in the 30th percentile with tens of thousands in debt is a compassionate much less reasonable thing to do.

    Without this bizarre fixation, how many blacks would have simply moved into the workforce at 18 and started in trades that require little to no out of pocket costs, just a willingness to show up and learn on the job and work your way into the lower middle class? Instead we have lots of blacks walking around with a college degree that cost them a fortune, were obtained after 5-7 years of effort, and steered them into white collar-ish jobs in which they hit their income ceiling very early.

    Our higher ed system needs to be razed to the ground, and our elementary and secondary system needs to be more honest with students about the potential job pathways open to them and the schooling they should receive to help them in that pursuit.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Rob, @Uncle Dan, @Hhsiii

    Whether or not he or she gets any marketable skills, today’s college grad certainly gets brainwashed, and then votes the way his profs vote.

    • Agree: YetAnotherAnon
  68. @Arclight
    I think the mania for insisting that college is an attainable and desirable goal for every high school graduate has something to do with it as well. This was sold as a sure fire way into economic security (and not just to blacks) and our student loan system coupled with affirmative action ensures that year after year millions of 'students' are fed into the maw of the higher education system without much consideration of whether leveraging up 18 year olds with SAT scores in the 30th percentile with tens of thousands in debt is a compassionate much less reasonable thing to do.

    Without this bizarre fixation, how many blacks would have simply moved into the workforce at 18 and started in trades that require little to no out of pocket costs, just a willingness to show up and learn on the job and work your way into the lower middle class? Instead we have lots of blacks walking around with a college degree that cost them a fortune, were obtained after 5-7 years of effort, and steered them into white collar-ish jobs in which they hit their income ceiling very early.

    Our higher ed system needs to be razed to the ground, and our elementary and secondary system needs to be more honest with students about the potential job pathways open to them and the schooling they should receive to help them in that pursuit.

    Replies: @Desiderius, @Rob, @Uncle Dan, @Hhsiii

    My wife was talking to relatives about the relative difficulty of getting into Rutgers (we are moving and although my kids are 5, 7 and 12 the mrs. plans ahead).

    My brother in law said Rutgers acceptance rate is 60%. He added “If you can’t get in there you shouldn’t be going to university.”

    • LOL: Arclight
  69. Steve–excellent column. I think you worked through a very good/useful paper pretty well.

    Attempting to be less wordy than my usual:

    1) Discrimination/catchup … then reality.
    All the points boiled down, the biggest factor is essentially 1960-1980 blacks did discrimination “catch-up”. But then that’s over and they are where they belong. (They could do a bit better with a better culture.)

    2) Immigration/amnesty.
    Next biggest factor is the huge inrush of immigrant–esp. Mexican–labor powered especially by Reagan’s amnesty. Where’s the inflection point–the 80s, Reagan cluelessly signing the amnesty.(Reagan’s presidency turned out to be a disaster. Who would have thought it after Carter.)

    3) Computer revolution
    Next biggest factor is computer revolution, all the work that’s “sit in front of screen and do stuff”. To say this isn’t an area of high competency for blacks, and particularly black guys, is an understatement.

    4) Blacks are getting dumber.
    The curve rolling over is in a tiny part that new blacks entering the workforce are genetically dumber. Feminism/female careerism is unfortunately squeezing down smart white female TFR, but overall for whites it’s pretty flat (the middle more fertile than the ends). In contrast, it is absolutely crushing smarter black women’s fertility. Smarter black women–especially college grads-want to have children the old fashioned way, with a husband. But there are way more black female college grads than male. (And those black men have options.) And women–female hypergamy–are resistance to marrying downscale.

    This is only a small effect in the number now, but future generations of blacks will be progressively dumber and dumber. Mark your expectations according.

    5) “In the name of equity, take your home equity.”
    Steve, you seem sold on this as being catchy / on point. It doesn’t really ring the bell for me.

    Good whites have quite a bit invested in their homes, where they bought them. A real push there could push a lot of good whites out of the Democrat coalition.

    I think they are coming directly for the deplorables–on jobs. Middle-middle and working class whites (especially men) are going to find there just are no jobs for them in government sector (e.g. police) or corporate when/where there are “oppressed” minorities around. (Another argument for white people trying to relocate themselves and young white middle class men finding a skilled trade, business where they are in control.)

    On housing, i think the real damage will be through Section 8/AFFH. Targeting deplorable communities/neighborhoods for “diversification” with blacks (lookout Dubuque!) or by airdropping “refugees”.

    • Replies: @kaganovitch
    @AnotherDad

    Attempting to be less wordy than my usual:

    I don't mean to be a Stalinist or anything but you need to 'do better'.

    , @Patrick McNally
    @AnotherDad

    "those black men have options."

    Black women are acutely aware of how a successful black man may potentially choose to "marry out" of the black community into the white community. You don't hear about white women getting too worried about white men marrying out of the white community with Asians. Maybe more of them should be worried about that, but right now it's not an issue. But with black women the standing concern has always been that the successful black man will go the way of O.J. Simpson and marry a Nicole. That puts a sharp limit on how far black men advance because it means that black women are potentially liable to punish a black man who tries to be too successful in ways which are likely to result in him meeting more white women. This then reinforces the tendency for black college graduates to be more often female than male.

    , @Eric Novak
    @AnotherDad

    The Chicago Police Academy still graduates a large number of white cops, probably far larger than their proportionate share of the population, which is 1/3. Black males all have felony records or get high. Those same problems vex Hispanics, albeit to a lesser degree. A qualifying white male applicant will have no problem getting on the CPD right now.

  70. @Anon
    @Voltarde

    In Seattle, and perhaps elsewhere, Amazon has 7/11 style convenience stores where no cash is used (Amazon Go). On entry to the store, you must “badge in/swipe in” on you smart phone App and everything you walk out with after that is automagically charged to your existing account. No shop lifting can occur.

    I have wondered if the move toward extremely lenient “Soros style” DAs in our cities, is not (in part) a long term strategy to move retail to the Amazon go model and ‘corner’ the technology of cashless retail inventory control . Perhaps like, as some suspect, BLM is really part of an attempt to manipulate urban real estate prices or perhaps, better, the tire companies after world war 2, buying up and removing public transit in the sf Bay Area to promote automobile travel. Create a need where none existed.

    Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter, @The Last Real Calvinist

    I have wondered if the move toward extremely lenient “Soros style” DAs in our cities, is not (in part) a long term strategy to move retail to the Amazon go model and ‘corner’ the technology of cashless retail inventory control .

    That is an interesting and plausible theory. I’ve been in those types of stores in mainland China, also. It’s convenient, of course, but no cash = no anonymity.

    • Thanks: Desiderius
  71. @res
    @Desiderius

    Good points.


    It requires a capacity for I wouldn’t call it empathy because it’s the opposite of suffering but putting oneself in the shoes of the client/customer and visualizing what they’d enjoy/aspire to or just, you know, need is the genius of it.
     
    Breaking that up into what motivates the customer vs. what they need is thought provoking. If you consider those as separate skills I wonder how they compare in importance for the following measures.

    1. Sales success.
    2. Customer emotional satisfaction.
    3. Customer practical benefit.

    What do you think? I think a significant portion of salesman hate comes from salesmen who prioritize customer motivation over need, but am not sure how much that is simply a rational choice by the salesmen.

    P.S. First attempt at posting this was an error. Hopefully this is not a double post (I checked first).

    Replies: @Desiderius

    The ones who are the best at keeping them coming back are the ones who hit true need, sometimes needs the customer didn’t even know they had or could hope to meet. My uncle was always finding people something slightly above their expectations that was just as slightly used where they could save 7 grand or whatever vs something shiny where the bloom quickly fell off of the rose.

    How good would blacks be at this sort of thing if it wasn’t so denigrated as degrading for them to pursue such things nowadays? Pretty good I think. A lot of similarities to the big man skillset.

  72. anon[330] • Disclaimer says:

    did census/ACS correct for IQ? see “The Bell Curve,” chapter 20 “affirmative action in the work place”
    also in the same book, salaries for e.g. engineers, possibly other high IQ jobs, shot up in the 50s and continued to climb into the 80s. Low-IQ job: pretty much flat like the North Shore during the summer.

  73. @res
    @Altai


    Not hard to see, around 1980 inequality generally increased due to very specific political policy decisions that came in with Reagan and whose essential logic and spirit remain dominant today. Blacks are generally poorer than whites and so the black-white gap would tend to increase.
     
    That sounds right to me. It would be interesting to see an analysis that looked at the trends in income over time for whites and blacks broken into income buckets. Does anyone know of a source for data like that?

    Replies: @Kratoklastes

    The Census Board. Table H1 in Historical Income Tables: Households.

    Gives quintiles, and the 95th percentile, by race, going back to 1967.

    I’m not aware of any API that enables importing the data into an SQL variant, but it would surprise me if there wasn’t one.

    • Thanks: res
    • Replies: @res
    @Kratoklastes

    Thanks! The tables are in Excel spreadsheets, but there are some funnies due to changing census race categories. Also, data for Asians starts in 2002 and Hispanics in 1972.

    But I think that data would do well for looking at black and white incomes over the 1967-2019 time frame to test the idea that the turn in the gap was due to increasing inequality starting in the 1980s. The 20/40/60/80/95 points seem sufficient for that.

    What do you think? Would it be enough to just put all 5 of those lines for both races on a plot and see how the relations change over the years? As an alternative, maybe plot the gap at each threshold? (probably better to use a percentage rather than absolute gap?)

    Replies: @res

  74. @Rob

    In other words, low-IQ black men have increasingly dropped out of the workforce, and are often in prison or on the street. On the other hand, those black men who do work these days are smarter than back in 1960 when practically all black men had jobs.
     
    I think this is an aspect of urban liberals’ support of various money.transfers and community organizer-type of black-on-black, like gang violence prevention liaison. Urban liberals, who tended to be fairly somart, do not want want to deal with the bottom x% of blacks. They are uncomfortable with blacks in personal service jobs, and find the thuggy sort of blacks both scary and a reminder of their personal failure to walk the walk on integrating blacks into white society, for younger and Twitty progs [iPad tried to correct that to “prongs”], and are a reminder of the failure of their biggest goal in 1960-odd. They have taken the acceptance of open homosexuality, at least in the top 25% by SES, as a consolation prize. But that was not on many peoples’ radar screen. No one marched for gay marriage or had ‘orientation freedom riders’ traveling to states where they had blacks for a long time, but for their treatment of gays instead.

    I wonder, though, the corporate woke folks affirm their conmitment to having black decorative pieces all throughout the company and that BLM is their most deeply-held belief, but it seems to me that people don’t have to issue press releases about that. Their commitments are obvious through the company’s action - their most sacred value is maximizing the price of top executives’ stock options. In France, Macron, I believe, said France would not be France without her Muslims and Africans, how strongly held is that sort of belief outside the Jewish population? Do the majority, or even a large minority, really prefer the joys of racial diversity to relative homogeneity and meritocracy? What Steve calls the Restaurant Rationale is commonly cited, but they they can never come up with a second reason they like diversity, whereas almost anyone can come up with tons of (non-racist, even) reasons to want the immivasion to go backwards.

    If the feds and states got rid of all the racial non-discrimination laws, would Goldman Sachs really hire 110 IQ blacks for jobs where everyone non-black clocks 135 or so? Would they do it year after year, when all the numbers they run say they carry a hundred million dollar opportunity cost? They might hire two, and send them around to schools for optics, but keep them far away from the trading,

    Though it does strike me that the problems blacks experience in smarty-type jobs revolve around being the dumbest people in the room - “they don’t respect me” or “no one listens to my ideas” - if they rose to their level, so they were no more incompetent than non-blacks in the same jobs, I think the level of disrespect would be a lot lower, people might even listen to their ideas - which usually run along the lines of “let’s make [already existing] product or do service for black people.”

    Replies: @The Last Real Calvinist

    Great post; all eminently sensible. But unfortunatley your conclusion is not plausible in today’s cultural climate. If it were enacted, the Great World-Savers of our day, in their hot rage to impose their own degraded and heretical vision of post-Christian utopian diversity, would not daily see before them sufficient evidence of their salvific prowess.

  75. @Mr Mox
    @Redneck farmer

    “We need Hispanics to run out the brothers”!

    At first glance I read it as “We need Hispanics to run our brothels”!

    Replies: @Jim Bob Lassiter, @Reg Cæsar

    “We need Hispanics to run out the brothers”!

    At first glance I read it as “We need Hispanics to run our brothels”!

    The scary thing is that Biden might even say that in real life. I’m sure Hunter would, if he hasn’t already.

  76. @Mike Tre
    @JohnnyWalker123

    Anti-vaxxers are negroes?

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @Athletic and Whitesplosive

    You joke, but yes. I’m not bullish on the long term efficacy and risk-reward picture of the corona vaccines (for most age groups) myself, but it’s crazy what convincing blacks that whites are constantly conspiring to murder them will do to their trust in novel medical technologies largely created by whites.

  77. empower school choice to .. provide competitive incentives for public schools to improve over the long term.

    Allowable, political discourse is limited to the range of beliefs from the pro- public education, DEM end of the spectrum to the pro- public education, GOP end on the other.

  78. “Why Did the Wage Gap Between White and Black Men Narrow Substantially from 1960-1980 Then Stagnate Ever Since?”

    Because the peak fame of Mr. T was from 1982-86. After that, there was no chance for any further ascension.

    In fact, circa 1984, the four most famous entertainers in America (T, Cosby, MJ, and Eddie Murphy) were all black, but racial agitation was not any part of their fame. Their fame transcended race for that brief post-racial zeitgeist.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Thomm

    1984 turned out to be a nice year.

  79. @Thomm
    "Why Did the Wage Gap Between White and Black Men Narrow Substantially from 1960-1980 Then Stagnate Ever Since?"

    Because the peak fame of Mr. T was from 1982-86. After that, there was no chance for any further ascension.

    In fact, circa 1984, the four most famous entertainers in America (T, Cosby, MJ, and Eddie Murphy) were all black, but racial agitation was not any part of their fame. Their fame transcended race for that brief post-racial zeitgeist.

    https://www.biography.com/.image/t_share/MTc5ODc5OTAwOTc4MDk1MjI2/gettyimages-140939099.jpg

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    1984 turned out to be a nice year.

  80. res says:
    @Kratoklastes
    @res

    The Census Board. Table H1 in Historical Income Tables: Households.

    Gives quintiles, and the 95th percentile, by race, going back to 1967.

    I'm not aware of any API that enables importing the data into an SQL variant, but it would surprise me if there wasn't one.

    Replies: @res

    Thanks! The tables are in Excel spreadsheets, but there are some funnies due to changing census race categories. Also, data for Asians starts in 2002 and Hispanics in 1972.

    But I think that data would do well for looking at black and white incomes over the 1967-2019 time frame to test the idea that the turn in the gap was due to increasing inequality starting in the 1980s. The 20/40/60/80/95 points seem sufficient for that.

    What do you think? Would it be enough to just put all 5 of those lines for both races on a plot and see how the relations change over the years? As an alternative, maybe plot the gap at each threshold? (probably better to use a percentage rather than absolute gap?)

    • Replies: @res
    @res

    Though it does not directly address that question, this document is worth a look.
    The U.S. Income Distribution: Trends and Issues
    Updated January 13, 2021
    https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44705.pdf

    Figure 2 has quintile graphs for all households. Regarding the plot at the start of Steve's post I think it is worth noting that there was a sharp increase in top quintile income starting in 2012 (that Obama second term again) after it having been relatively stable since 1998.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

  81. @JohnnyWalker123
    @res

    The book provides an interesting glimpse into the culture of working&lower class Appalachians. The author mostly touches on his family's history in West Virginia, but I recall him mentioning that they lived in Ohio too. Much of the book focuses on the experiences of rural Appalachians.

    Replies: @res

    How similar/different do you think the situations are in Appalachia and the Rust Belt regarding these phenomena?

    • Replies: @JohnnyWalker123
    @res

    There seems to be a broad overall similarity between the urban White rust belt slums and the rural areas of Appalachia. Both regions are haunted by drug addiction, alcoholism, overdoses, suicides, deindustrialization, and various types of social dysfunction.

    However, in the rust belt, there's more exposure to Blacks. So the urban "hillbillies" there have to deal a lot with the negative externalities of Black behavior, crime, violence, and mixed relationships. Rural "hillbillies" are more insulated. For example, there has been a lot of "White flight" out of West Baltimore, due to Black predation.

    In general, urban areas are much more densely populated, which produces more opportunities for violent&property crime for people of all races. More visible mental illness and homelessness in public spaces too. The anonymity of city life sometimes makes people less fearful about behaving badly. In a rural area, you more easily bring attention to yourself because people still sort of know one another.

    Lots of rustbelt families still have family clans in rural Appalachia. So they visit often and retain cultural ties, to some extent.

    According to the reading that I've done, both regions have been hit super hard by the opioid epidemic. Mexican cartels made a lot of money by trafficking "black tar" heroin to these places. Lots of legal doctor-operated "pill mills" too.

    By the way, lots of the issues you find in Appalachia can be found in the Ozarks too.

  82. @Wendy Kroy
    Everyone has their own favorite version:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fpdts1ZndzM

    Replies: @Steve Sailer

    I get “John Henry” confused with “Sixteen Tons.”

  83. @JohnnyWalker123
    @Clyde

    It's less well known that the deindustrialization of the last 40 years has created White slums throughout the Rustbelt. Lots of "hillbilly ghettos" in these places.

    The inhabitants of these White slums may not shoot and kill each other that often, but there's a lot of alcoholism, drug addiction, homelessness, mental illness, suicide, family breakdown, and property crime. Sort of like Native reservations, but less craziness.

    The problems of urban Blacks get a lot of news coverage, but the hard-hit Whites of the Rustbelt often fly under the radar.

    Replies: @Feryl, @Mark G., @res, @Uncle Dan, @AceDeuce

    I’m originally from one of those areas you speak of–over the past 20 years, every lower middle class White youth (“Working class”, these days would be a misnomer for those people) has gone full-blown wigger. The 20 years before that stripped that community of any economic security, got them on drugs and “free sex” with “no strings attached”, which means that they were 3/4 of the way to wiggerdom. With predictable results.

    I call them “Mutant Whites” or “Feral Whites” They are lost and doomed. And no one cares. Even so, they commit a mere fraction of serious crimes compared to negroes.

    • Agree: L in Atl hell
    • Replies: @JohnPlywood
    @AceDeuce

    Drugs and free sex began in the 60s and 70s, dumbfuck, and it was your sorry ass generation who did it. That's "40 years before that".

    Replies: @AceDeuce

    , @JohnnyWalker123
    @AceDeuce

    Interesting.

    How violent are the young guys from your old neighborhood? If I walked through the area late at night, could I get stabbed, shot, or mugged?

  84. res says:
    @res
    @Kratoklastes

    Thanks! The tables are in Excel spreadsheets, but there are some funnies due to changing census race categories. Also, data for Asians starts in 2002 and Hispanics in 1972.

    But I think that data would do well for looking at black and white incomes over the 1967-2019 time frame to test the idea that the turn in the gap was due to increasing inequality starting in the 1980s. The 20/40/60/80/95 points seem sufficient for that.

    What do you think? Would it be enough to just put all 5 of those lines for both races on a plot and see how the relations change over the years? As an alternative, maybe plot the gap at each threshold? (probably better to use a percentage rather than absolute gap?)

    Replies: @res

    Though it does not directly address that question, this document is worth a look.
    The U.S. Income Distribution: Trends and Issues
    Updated January 13, 2021
    https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44705.pdf

    Figure 2 has quintile graphs for all households. Regarding the plot at the start of Steve’s post I think it is worth noting that there was a sharp increase in top quintile income starting in 2012 (that Obama second term again) after it having been relatively stable since 1998.

    • Thanks: AnotherDad
    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @res

    "Figure 2 has quintile graphs for all households"

    Isn't it really individual incomes you need, not household?

    In the UK household incomes rose all through the Thatcher years, because as house prices rose, you were more likely to need two incomes for a house.

    Replies: @res

  85. @AceDeuce
    @JohnnyWalker123

    I'm originally from one of those areas you speak of--over the past 20 years, every lower middle class White youth ("Working class", these days would be a misnomer for those people) has gone full-blown wigger. The 20 years before that stripped that community of any economic security, got them on drugs and "free sex" with "no strings attached", which means that they were 3/4 of the way to wiggerdom. With predictable results.

    I call them "Mutant Whites" or "Feral Whites" They are lost and doomed. And no one cares. Even so, they commit a mere fraction of serious crimes compared to negroes.

    Replies: @JohnPlywood, @JohnnyWalker123

    Drugs and free sex began in the 60s and 70s, dumbfuck, and it was your sorry ass generation who did it. That’s “40 years before that”.

    • Troll: YetAnotherAnon
    • Replies: @AceDeuce
    @JohnPlywood

    You math is off, moron, as are your writing skills, and I bear no generational responsibility for your mother taking Thalidomide and Quaaludes, then getting impregnated via her "back door" by a random homeless man. You're a bunghole baby, fer shure. Lean into it.

  86. @anon
    i can't read steve anymore knowing he's being dishonest/jewish about his mischlingitudinousness...i am nauseated.

    Replies: @kaganovitch

    Don’t let the door hit you in the butt.

  87. @AnotherDad
    Steve--excellent column. I think you worked through a very good/useful paper pretty well.

    Attempting to be less wordy than my usual:

    1) Discrimination/catchup ... then reality.
    All the points boiled down, the biggest factor is essentially 1960-1980 blacks did discrimination "catch-up". But then that's over and they are where they belong. (They could do a bit better with a better culture.)

    2) Immigration/amnesty.
    Next biggest factor is the huge inrush of immigrant--esp. Mexican--labor powered especially by Reagan's amnesty. Where's the inflection point--the 80s, Reagan cluelessly signing the amnesty.(Reagan's presidency turned out to be a disaster. Who would have thought it after Carter.)

    3) Computer revolution
    Next biggest factor is computer revolution, all the work that's "sit in front of screen and do stuff". To say this isn't an area of high competency for blacks, and particularly black guys, is an understatement.

    4) Blacks are getting dumber.
    The curve rolling over is in a tiny part that new blacks entering the workforce are genetically dumber. Feminism/female careerism is unfortunately squeezing down smart white female TFR, but overall for whites it's pretty flat (the middle more fertile than the ends). In contrast, it is absolutely crushing smarter black women's fertility. Smarter black women--especially college grads-want to have children the old fashioned way, with a husband. But there are way more black female college grads than male. (And those black men have options.) And women--female hypergamy--are resistance to marrying downscale.

    This is only a small effect in the number now, but future generations of blacks will be progressively dumber and dumber. Mark your expectations according.


    5) "In the name of equity, take your home equity."
    Steve, you seem sold on this as being catchy / on point. It doesn't really ring the bell for me.

    Good whites have quite a bit invested in their homes, where they bought them. A real push there could push a lot of good whites out of the Democrat coalition.

    I think they are coming directly for the deplorables--on jobs. Middle-middle and working class whites (especially men) are going to find there just are no jobs for them in government sector (e.g. police) or corporate when/where there are "oppressed" minorities around. (Another argument for white people trying to relocate themselves and young white middle class men finding a skilled trade, business where they are in control.)

    On housing, i think the real damage will be through Section 8/AFFH. Targeting deplorable communities/neighborhoods for "diversification" with blacks (lookout Dubuque!) or by airdropping "refugees".

    Replies: @kaganovitch, @Patrick McNally, @Eric Novak

    Attempting to be less wordy than my usual:

    I don’t mean to be a Stalinist or anything but you need to ‘do better’.

    • Agree: AnotherDad
  88. I ran across an article recently by Adolph Reed, Jr., an African American Marxist political scientist who is very much against racial politics.

    Reed claims that 75% of the black-white wealth gap is due to the increase in the wealth gap between rich and poor. Since there are fewer rich blacks, that increases the racial wealth gap.

    Reed is of the opinion that decreasing the disparity of wealth between rich and poor is far more important than the racial wealth gap.

    • Agree: Barbarossa
    • Replies: @res
    @Paleo Liberal

    Thank you! I was getting ready to do some analysis to attempt to make that point, but I think Adolph Reed, Jr. and Walter Benn Michaels have done a far better job than I would have.

    Short version of the article.
    https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/08/15/trouble-disparity

    Long version of the article.
    https://nonsite.org/the-trouble-with-disparity/

    You gave a nice summary. Some quotes from the long version after the MORE.

    And their only graphic.

    https://nonsite.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/HouseholdIncomeDistributionByRace.jpg

    BTW, the comments in the longer version show some nice examples of the authors taking criticism in a constructive fashion and incorporating the points made into their article. There weren't that many comments, but I thought the comments on both pieces were surprisingly good.


    The Gini index (a measure of inequality in which zero means we all have the same while one means one person has everything) has gone from .397 in 1967 to .485 today. (By contrast, the worst current score in Europe is basically what ours was a half century ago.)
     

    In fact, not only will a focus on the effort to eliminate racial disparities not take us in the direction of a more equal society, it isn’t even the best way of eliminating racial disparities themselves. If the objective is to eliminate black poverty rather than simply to benefit the upper classes, we believe the diagnosis of racism is wrong, and the cure of antiracism won’t work. Racism is real and antiracism is both admirable and necessary, but extant racism isn’t what principally produces our inequality and antiracism won’t eliminate it. And because racism is not the principal source of inequality today, antiracism functions more as a misdirection that justifies inequality than a strategy for eliminating it.
     

    That means, as Matt Bruenig of the People’s Policy Project recently noted, “the overall racial wealth disparity is driven almost entirely by the disparity between the wealthiest 10 percent of white people and the wealthiest 10 percent of black people.” While Bruenig is clear that a discernible wealth gap exists across class levels, he explored the impact of eliminating the gap between the bottom 90 percent of each group and found that after doing so 77.5 percent of the overall gap would remain. He then examined the effect of eliminating the wealth gap between the bottom 50 percent—the median point—of each population and found that doing so would eliminate only 3 percent of the racial gap. So, 97 percent of the racial wealth gap exists among the wealthiest half of each population. And, more tellingly, more than three-fourths of it is concentrated in the top 10 percent of each.
     

    Even as a program for addressing racial disparities, antiracism is not much of a remedy for inequality. If the racial wealth gap were somehow eliminated up and down the distribution, 90 percent of black people would still have only 25 percent of total wealth, and the top 10 percent of blacks would still hold 75 percent. And this is only to be expected because in a society with sharp and increasing overall inequality, eliminating racial “gaps” in the distribution of advantages and disadvantages by definition does not affect the larger, and more fundamental, pattern of inequality.
     
    I find the following an especially interesting point.

    Thus, for example, the reception of Raj Chetty and his coauthors’ widely discussed 2018 study of intergenerational economic mobility made it clear that their most shocking finding was the degree to which rich black people are less likely than their white counterparts to pass their status on to their children, especially their male children. As if the difficulty rich people might experience in passing on their expropriated wealth is made into a left issue by the fact that the rich people in question are black.5
     
    Another interesting point.

    Although Vincente Navarro’s remark (to the 2003 graduating class of the Johns Hopkins Medical School), “The United States is one of the very few countries that do not include class in its national health and vital statistics,” no doubt overstated the case, his observation that the U.S. prefers to collect “health and vital statistics by race and gender” is on target. Comparing E.U. and U.S. approaches to eliminating disparities in health, Elizabeth Docteur and Robert A. Berenson note the E.U. focus on “inequalities between the most advantaged and disadvantaged sections of the population,” that is, “populations with lower education, a lower occupational class, or lower income.” “By contrast,” they go on to say, the U.S. data they analyze presents “health disparities associated with race and ethnicity as the primary focus of its drive to increase health equity.”
     
    It looks like they are not believers in HBD (though unclear if this is just pushback against those who overemphasize biology).

    There is a long and sordid history of the often tragic harms that folk beliefs about racial differences in biology have caused to people in this country and around the world.8 In the current environment, it’s too easy for people to assume that racial disparities stem from differences in racial biology.
     

    The death rate in census tracts with median annual income below $25,000 was 221.8 per 100,000 population while for the census tracts with median annual income above $240,000 the death rate was 85.7 per 100,000. You were more than two-and-a-half times more likely to die from COVID-19 if you lived in a poor neighborhood than if you lived in a rich one. And “income alone” was “the most influential characteristic.”10
     
  89. @epebble
    @Clyde

    All those things and Technology too. With the birth of automation, value of physical labor is very low compared to "thinking" skills. So the trifecta of technology, globalization and immigration means those who primarily relied on physical labor and short and shallow learning curve have no value in modern economy. Unfortunately, that may be a third to half of labor force with a disproportionate share of blacks and may be Hispanics too. So we are compelled to have, (in the absence of major wealth transfer) a bimodal economy with Europe/Asia characteristics on top half and Africa/South America characteristics at the bottom half.

    Replies: @Clyde, @anon

    those who primarily relied on physical labor and short and shallow learning curve have no value in modern economy. Unfortunately, that may be a third to half of labor force with a disproportionate share of blacks and may be Hispanics too.

    No maybes! Definitely Hispanics too, the non-educated kind from Mexico/Central America we are encouraging to jump our border during the Biden/Harris/Obama administration. Exactly those whose labor is in dire surplus these days, are the ones Biden/Harris/Obama want more of and are acting on this. And even better, we know we have people massing at our Mexican border from all over South America, Africa, Asian Muslim nations.

    The evil Dems have a plan to crash America as we know it. Make America into a hellscape, except for the well off in their gated communities and the billionaires. Trump provided relief from this invasion via immigration anarchy, no matter what his flaws. The prissy, stuck up people here who knock Donald Trump, they can FOAD, then go off to the devil.

  90. @AnotherDad
    Steve--excellent column. I think you worked through a very good/useful paper pretty well.

    Attempting to be less wordy than my usual:

    1) Discrimination/catchup ... then reality.
    All the points boiled down, the biggest factor is essentially 1960-1980 blacks did discrimination "catch-up". But then that's over and they are where they belong. (They could do a bit better with a better culture.)

    2) Immigration/amnesty.
    Next biggest factor is the huge inrush of immigrant--esp. Mexican--labor powered especially by Reagan's amnesty. Where's the inflection point--the 80s, Reagan cluelessly signing the amnesty.(Reagan's presidency turned out to be a disaster. Who would have thought it after Carter.)

    3) Computer revolution
    Next biggest factor is computer revolution, all the work that's "sit in front of screen and do stuff". To say this isn't an area of high competency for blacks, and particularly black guys, is an understatement.

    4) Blacks are getting dumber.
    The curve rolling over is in a tiny part that new blacks entering the workforce are genetically dumber. Feminism/female careerism is unfortunately squeezing down smart white female TFR, but overall for whites it's pretty flat (the middle more fertile than the ends). In contrast, it is absolutely crushing smarter black women's fertility. Smarter black women--especially college grads-want to have children the old fashioned way, with a husband. But there are way more black female college grads than male. (And those black men have options.) And women--female hypergamy--are resistance to marrying downscale.

    This is only a small effect in the number now, but future generations of blacks will be progressively dumber and dumber. Mark your expectations according.


    5) "In the name of equity, take your home equity."
    Steve, you seem sold on this as being catchy / on point. It doesn't really ring the bell for me.

    Good whites have quite a bit invested in their homes, where they bought them. A real push there could push a lot of good whites out of the Democrat coalition.

    I think they are coming directly for the deplorables--on jobs. Middle-middle and working class whites (especially men) are going to find there just are no jobs for them in government sector (e.g. police) or corporate when/where there are "oppressed" minorities around. (Another argument for white people trying to relocate themselves and young white middle class men finding a skilled trade, business where they are in control.)

    On housing, i think the real damage will be through Section 8/AFFH. Targeting deplorable communities/neighborhoods for "diversification" with blacks (lookout Dubuque!) or by airdropping "refugees".

    Replies: @kaganovitch, @Patrick McNally, @Eric Novak

    “those black men have options.”

    Black women are acutely aware of how a successful black man may potentially choose to “marry out” of the black community into the white community. You don’t hear about white women getting too worried about white men marrying out of the white community with Asians. Maybe more of them should be worried about that, but right now it’s not an issue. But with black women the standing concern has always been that the successful black man will go the way of O.J. Simpson and marry a Nicole. That puts a sharp limit on how far black men advance because it means that black women are potentially liable to punish a black man who tries to be too successful in ways which are likely to result in him meeting more white women. This then reinforces the tendency for black college graduates to be more often female than male.

  91. @Goddard
    @The Alarmist


    I had little choice about taking a couple from Williams as interns.
     
    You had a choice. You could have walked away.

    Replies: @The Alarmist

    There’s a reason they call them “golden handcuffs.” I did not have my FU money at that point, and I wasn’t about to throw away the opportunity to get it.

    • Replies: @Goddard
    @The Alarmist

    I get it. You were acting reasonably. My point is, our side got into the current predicament because it has been reasonable and not radical.

  92. @The Alarmist
    @Goddard

    There’s a reason they call them “golden handcuffs.” I did not have my FU money at that point, and I wasn’t about to throw away the opportunity to get it.

    Replies: @Goddard

    I get it. You were acting reasonably. My point is, our side got into the current predicament because it has been reasonable and not radical.

  93. @JohnPlywood
    @AceDeuce

    Drugs and free sex began in the 60s and 70s, dumbfuck, and it was your sorry ass generation who did it. That's "40 years before that".

    Replies: @AceDeuce

    You math is off, moron, as are your writing skills, and I bear no generational responsibility for your mother taking Thalidomide and Quaaludes, then getting impregnated via her “back door” by a random homeless man. You’re a bunghole baby, fer shure. Lean into it.

  94. Stevei,

    I see you are obsessed with maintaining your home equity as is natural

    for someone approaching the end of their productive years, You needn’t

    worry. You and your Covid Jabbed relatives have a drastically shortened

    life expectancy of two to three years at the most. Read the intense research being done

    by physicians and scientists around the world. Your ass is grass.

    Eat, drink, and be merry for you and your loved ones are doomed.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Gary

    That is a lousy Tiny Duck imitation.

    Troll harder!

  95. res says:
    @Paleo Liberal
    I ran across an article recently by Adolph Reed, Jr., an African American Marxist political scientist who is very much against racial politics.

    Reed claims that 75% of the black-white wealth gap is due to the increase in the wealth gap between rich and poor. Since there are fewer rich blacks, that increases the racial wealth gap.

    Reed is of the opinion that decreasing the disparity of wealth between rich and poor is far more important than the racial wealth gap.

    Replies: @res

    Thank you! I was getting ready to do some analysis to attempt to make that point, but I think Adolph Reed, Jr. and Walter Benn Michaels have done a far better job than I would have.

    Short version of the article.
    https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/08/15/trouble-disparity

    Long version of the article.
    https://nonsite.org/the-trouble-with-disparity/

    You gave a nice summary. Some quotes from the long version after the MORE.

    And their only graphic.

    BTW, the comments in the longer version show some nice examples of the authors taking criticism in a constructive fashion and incorporating the points made into their article. There weren’t that many comments, but I thought the comments on both pieces were surprisingly good.

    [MORE]

    The Gini index (a measure of inequality in which zero means we all have the same while one means one person has everything) has gone from .397 in 1967 to .485 today. (By contrast, the worst current score in Europe is basically what ours was a half century ago.)

    In fact, not only will a focus on the effort to eliminate racial disparities not take us in the direction of a more equal society, it isn’t even the best way of eliminating racial disparities themselves. If the objective is to eliminate black poverty rather than simply to benefit the upper classes, we believe the diagnosis of racism is wrong, and the cure of antiracism won’t work. Racism is real and antiracism is both admirable and necessary, but extant racism isn’t what principally produces our inequality and antiracism won’t eliminate it. And because racism is not the principal source of inequality today, antiracism functions more as a misdirection that justifies inequality than a strategy for eliminating it.

    That means, as Matt Bruenig of the People’s Policy Project recently noted, “the overall racial wealth disparity is driven almost entirely by the disparity between the wealthiest 10 percent of white people and the wealthiest 10 percent of black people.” While Bruenig is clear that a discernible wealth gap exists across class levels, he explored the impact of eliminating the gap between the bottom 90 percent of each group and found that after doing so 77.5 percent of the overall gap would remain. He then examined the effect of eliminating the wealth gap between the bottom 50 percent—the median point—of each population and found that doing so would eliminate only 3 percent of the racial gap. So, 97 percent of the racial wealth gap exists among the wealthiest half of each population. And, more tellingly, more than three-fourths of it is concentrated in the top 10 percent of each.

    Even as a program for addressing racial disparities, antiracism is not much of a remedy for inequality. If the racial wealth gap were somehow eliminated up and down the distribution, 90 percent of black people would still have only 25 percent of total wealth, and the top 10 percent of blacks would still hold 75 percent. And this is only to be expected because in a society with sharp and increasing overall inequality, eliminating racial “gaps” in the distribution of advantages and disadvantages by definition does not affect the larger, and more fundamental, pattern of inequality.

    I find the following an especially interesting point.

    Thus, for example, the reception of Raj Chetty and his coauthors’ widely discussed 2018 study of intergenerational economic mobility made it clear that their most shocking finding was the degree to which rich black people are less likely than their white counterparts to pass their status on to their children, especially their male children. As if the difficulty rich people might experience in passing on their expropriated wealth is made into a left issue by the fact that the rich people in question are black.5

    Another interesting point.

    Although Vincente Navarro’s remark (to the 2003 graduating class of the Johns Hopkins Medical School), “The United States is one of the very few countries that do not include class in its national health and vital statistics,” no doubt overstated the case, his observation that the U.S. prefers to collect “health and vital statistics by race and gender” is on target. Comparing E.U. and U.S. approaches to eliminating disparities in health, Elizabeth Docteur and Robert A. Berenson note the E.U. focus on “inequalities between the most advantaged and disadvantaged sections of the population,” that is, “populations with lower education, a lower occupational class, or lower income.” “By contrast,” they go on to say, the U.S. data they analyze presents “health disparities associated with race and ethnicity as the primary focus of its drive to increase health equity.”

    It looks like they are not believers in HBD (though unclear if this is just pushback against those who overemphasize biology).

    There is a long and sordid history of the often tragic harms that folk beliefs about racial differences in biology have caused to people in this country and around the world.8 In the current environment, it’s too easy for people to assume that racial disparities stem from differences in racial biology.

    The death rate in census tracts with median annual income below $25,000 was 221.8 per 100,000 population while for the census tracts with median annual income above $240,000 the death rate was 85.7 per 100,000. You were more than two-and-a-half times more likely to die from COVID-19 if you lived in a poor neighborhood than if you lived in a rich one. And “income alone” was “the most influential characteristic.”10

  96. @AceDeuce
    @JohnnyWalker123

    I'm originally from one of those areas you speak of--over the past 20 years, every lower middle class White youth ("Working class", these days would be a misnomer for those people) has gone full-blown wigger. The 20 years before that stripped that community of any economic security, got them on drugs and "free sex" with "no strings attached", which means that they were 3/4 of the way to wiggerdom. With predictable results.

    I call them "Mutant Whites" or "Feral Whites" They are lost and doomed. And no one cares. Even so, they commit a mere fraction of serious crimes compared to negroes.

    Replies: @JohnPlywood, @JohnnyWalker123

    Interesting.

    How violent are the young guys from your old neighborhood? If I walked through the area late at night, could I get stabbed, shot, or mugged?

  97. @Mark G.
    @JohnnyWalker123


    It’s less well known that the deindustrialization of the last 40 years has created White slums throughout the Rustbelt. Lots of “hillbilly ghettos” in these places.
     
    Here in Indiana there existed a "Gas Belt". In the late 19th century the largest natural gas field in the country was discovered here. An especially large number of factories located here to take advantage of that, creating towns like Anderson, Muncie, Kokomo and Marion. Even after the gas ran out, these towns continued to be used as locations for manufacturing and were prosperous into the nineteen sixties. For example, part of that wealth was used to build high school basketball gyms, resulting in basketball crazy Indiana having 7 of the 10 largest basketball gyms in the country.

    These towns are in a sad state now with the factories gone and high unemployment rates. If you go to the downtown areas you see nothing built since the sixties and lots of old decaying buildings. Very few people ever visit them so they are not even aware of the situation. My brother in law lost his factory job in Anderson in the late nineteen seventies, never found another good job, and died prematurely in his early sixties from alcoholism. This same situation exists to a certain extent throughout the Midwest.

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    Thanks.

    How much violent crime and public unruliness occurs in these areas? My general observation was that the streets were quiet. People seemed to stay home and self-medicate through drugs and/or alcohol. You don’t really see menacing White tough guys or packs of surly White “youths.”

    There wasn’t much in social life or public community, beyond people eating at fast-food restaurants.
    Young people seem to have disappeared from the public spaces in these areas.

    Inner-city Blacks seem way louder, wilder, more out&about in public spaces, more extroverted, and more violent. Very different from Underclass Whites in personality (especially extroversion and tendency towards hair-trigger violence).

    Lots of the bar scene seems to have died.

  98. @res
    @JohnnyWalker123

    How similar/different do you think the situations are in Appalachia and the Rust Belt regarding these phenomena?

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123

    There seems to be a broad overall similarity between the urban White rust belt slums and the rural areas of Appalachia. Both regions are haunted by drug addiction, alcoholism, overdoses, suicides, deindustrialization, and various types of social dysfunction.

    However, in the rust belt, there’s more exposure to Blacks. So the urban “hillbillies” there have to deal a lot with the negative externalities of Black behavior, crime, violence, and mixed relationships. Rural “hillbillies” are more insulated. For example, there has been a lot of “White flight” out of West Baltimore, due to Black predation.

    In general, urban areas are much more densely populated, which produces more opportunities for violent&property crime for people of all races. More visible mental illness and homelessness in public spaces too. The anonymity of city life sometimes makes people less fearful about behaving badly. In a rural area, you more easily bring attention to yourself because people still sort of know one another.

    Lots of rustbelt families still have family clans in rural Appalachia. So they visit often and retain cultural ties, to some extent.

    According to the reading that I’ve done, both regions have been hit super hard by the opioid epidemic. Mexican cartels made a lot of money by trafficking “black tar” heroin to these places. Lots of legal doctor-operated “pill mills” too.

    By the way, lots of the issues you find in Appalachia can be found in the Ozarks too.

    • Thanks: res
  99. @res
    @res

    Though it does not directly address that question, this document is worth a look.
    The U.S. Income Distribution: Trends and Issues
    Updated January 13, 2021
    https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44705.pdf

    Figure 2 has quintile graphs for all households. Regarding the plot at the start of Steve's post I think it is worth noting that there was a sharp increase in top quintile income starting in 2012 (that Obama second term again) after it having been relatively stable since 1998.

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    “Figure 2 has quintile graphs for all households”

    Isn’t it really individual incomes you need, not household?

    In the UK household incomes rose all through the Thatcher years, because as house prices rose, you were more likely to need two incomes for a house.

    • Replies: @res
    @YetAnotherAnon


    Isn’t it really individual incomes you need, not household?
     
    That would be better, but I don't see similar data for personal income (I looked after having the same realization as you).

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

  100. @Gary
    Stevei,

    I see you are obsessed with maintaining your home equity as is natural

    for someone approaching the end of their productive years, You needn't

    worry. You and your Covid Jabbed relatives have a drastically shortened

    life expectancy of two to three years at the most. Read the intense research being done

    by physicians and scientists around the world. Your ass is grass.

    Eat, drink, and be merry for you and your loved ones are doomed.

    Replies: @anon

    That is a lousy Tiny Duck imitation.

    Troll harder!

  101. @YetAnotherAnon
    @res

    "Figure 2 has quintile graphs for all households"

    Isn't it really individual incomes you need, not household?

    In the UK household incomes rose all through the Thatcher years, because as house prices rose, you were more likely to need two incomes for a house.

    Replies: @res

    Isn’t it really individual incomes you need, not household?

    That would be better, but I don’t see similar data for personal income (I looked after having the same realization as you).

    • Replies: @YetAnotherAnon
    @res

    The UK has income data for full time men and women from 1968 for Great Britain (England/Scotland/Wales) Better still, it's split into percentile groups - 10%, 25%, 50% (median), 75%, 90%.

    The same data's available from 1979 for the UK (same plus Northern Ireland).

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/previousReleases

    The only thing it could do with, which I haven't yet looked seriously for (it may be somewhere in the data) is the actual numbers in each category. Be interesting to see how female full time employment rose from the 1970s, when a factory worker could afford a stay at home mother raising their children.

    Replies: @res

  102. @Clyde
    White/black wage gap increased because:
    The FIRE economy geared up during the Ronald Reagan years as we emerged from the sharp dip when RR came into office. The FIRE economy lead into offshoring our factories, which really ramped up after the fall of communism in Russia and Eastern Europe. Without an external enemy Wall Street and our great titans of industry were allowed to run wild with offshoring. Billions and trillions were made by the above people as they sold out America and the white working class. Black workers too.

    FIRE economy -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRE_economy

    Replies: @JohnnyWalker123, @Ian Smith, @epebble, @Barbarossa

    You are correct. I was waiting to see who would mention this point. Because they were at the lowest rung of the economic ladder after the Great Migration, blacks were reliant on those industrial jobs to gain a position in the middle class. Needless to say, globalization put a kibosh on that prospect.

    As JohnnyWalker123 points out, this is not just a black problem. I live in what one could consider a white rural slum area. Unfortunately, the white working class is turning to many of the same destructive patterns that have dominated black urban areas. Whites are just a couple decades behind in terms of dysfunction.

    • Replies: @Clyde
    @Barbarossa


    I live in what one could consider a white rural slum area. Unfortunately, the white working class is turning to many of the same destructive patterns that have dominated black urban areas. Whites are just a couple decades behind in terms of dysfunction.
     
    Youngstown Ohio was a famous steel making town. After all this closes down how does their economy function at all for whites who remain? The answer is transfer payments from Ohio and Washington DC.

    Republic Steel & Youngstown Sheet & Tube were the major employers from the early 20th century until 1977. In that year, Youngstown Sheet & Tube laid off 5,000 workers in one day.
     
    I have a 12" stainless steel ruler from Republic Steel. These were given out to customers and others. A way of advertising.
  103. @UNIT472
    There seems to be a high demand for working class men able to work independently. I see tradesmans vans driving by with 'help wanted' signs on them. They are often for HVAC technicians or some other specialized home improvement company ( garage door openers, window blinds installer are two I saw in recent days).

    Obviously these are both 'contact' jobs and fairly high level cognitive jobs. You are going into someone's home and you had better be able to trouble shoot and make a repair or replace a part or take accurate measurements before you start drilling into people's walls or ceilings. It is not an invitation to come on to the housewife or slip an expensive geegaws into your toolbox on the way out which is, probably why I see so few negro men driving those contractor vans.

    Replies: @Eric Novak

    HVAC techs aren’t working class. I know several stationary engineers who earn six figures in their large-metro steamfitters local. One earns more than his spouse, a real estate lawyer.

  104. @AnotherDad
    Steve--excellent column. I think you worked through a very good/useful paper pretty well.

    Attempting to be less wordy than my usual:

    1) Discrimination/catchup ... then reality.
    All the points boiled down, the biggest factor is essentially 1960-1980 blacks did discrimination "catch-up". But then that's over and they are where they belong. (They could do a bit better with a better culture.)

    2) Immigration/amnesty.
    Next biggest factor is the huge inrush of immigrant--esp. Mexican--labor powered especially by Reagan's amnesty. Where's the inflection point--the 80s, Reagan cluelessly signing the amnesty.(Reagan's presidency turned out to be a disaster. Who would have thought it after Carter.)

    3) Computer revolution
    Next biggest factor is computer revolution, all the work that's "sit in front of screen and do stuff". To say this isn't an area of high competency for blacks, and particularly black guys, is an understatement.

    4) Blacks are getting dumber.
    The curve rolling over is in a tiny part that new blacks entering the workforce are genetically dumber. Feminism/female careerism is unfortunately squeezing down smart white female TFR, but overall for whites it's pretty flat (the middle more fertile than the ends). In contrast, it is absolutely crushing smarter black women's fertility. Smarter black women--especially college grads-want to have children the old fashioned way, with a husband. But there are way more black female college grads than male. (And those black men have options.) And women--female hypergamy--are resistance to marrying downscale.

    This is only a small effect in the number now, but future generations of blacks will be progressively dumber and dumber. Mark your expectations according.


    5) "In the name of equity, take your home equity."
    Steve, you seem sold on this as being catchy / on point. It doesn't really ring the bell for me.

    Good whites have quite a bit invested in their homes, where they bought them. A real push there could push a lot of good whites out of the Democrat coalition.

    I think they are coming directly for the deplorables--on jobs. Middle-middle and working class whites (especially men) are going to find there just are no jobs for them in government sector (e.g. police) or corporate when/where there are "oppressed" minorities around. (Another argument for white people trying to relocate themselves and young white middle class men finding a skilled trade, business where they are in control.)

    On housing, i think the real damage will be through Section 8/AFFH. Targeting deplorable communities/neighborhoods for "diversification" with blacks (lookout Dubuque!) or by airdropping "refugees".

    Replies: @kaganovitch, @Patrick McNally, @Eric Novak

    The Chicago Police Academy still graduates a large number of white cops, probably far larger than their proportionate share of the population, which is 1/3. Black males all have felony records or get high. Those same problems vex Hispanics, albeit to a lesser degree. A qualifying white male applicant will have no problem getting on the CPD right now.

  105. @res
    @YetAnotherAnon


    Isn’t it really individual incomes you need, not household?
     
    That would be better, but I don't see similar data for personal income (I looked after having the same realization as you).

    Replies: @YetAnotherAnon

    The UK has income data for full time men and women from 1968 for Great Britain (England/Scotland/Wales) Better still, it’s split into percentile groups – 10%, 25%, 50% (median), 75%, 90%.

    The same data’s available from 1979 for the UK (same plus Northern Ireland).

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/previousReleases

    The only thing it could do with, which I haven’t yet looked seriously for (it may be somewhere in the data) is the actual numbers in each category. Be interesting to see how female full time employment rose from the 1970s, when a factory worker could afford a stay at home mother raising their children.

    • Replies: @res
    @YetAnotherAnon

    I should have been clearer. The data I meant was income quintiles broken down by race. Here is the census data for personal income.
    https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-people.html
    No quintiles broken down by race there. Which seems odd given that there are 53 different tables there.

    I wanted to look at how the racial gap changed across the income distribution (to contrast with the plot at the start of Steve's post).

    Looking closer at that Figure 1 plot, it controls variables in a way that makes it even less comparable to the raw census data than I thought.

  106. “In general, Wokeness seems to me, as a Californian, to be a covert South-centrist movement that assumes the South was always the hub of American history, even though it was a depressed backwater from 1865 until the later 20th century.)”

    Steve, relative to the North, the South was a depressed backwater prior to 1865. The North had a more developed railway system (in 1861, the North had 22,000 miles of track vs only 9,500 miles in the South), bigger cities (New Orleans was the only Deep South city in the top ten urban areas in 1860), a larger shipping industry, more factories, etc.

    • Replies: @syonredux
    @syonredux

    People have to face facts: Slavery did the South a lot of harm. For confirmation, just look at the map showing the concentration of significant figures in the USA prior to 1950 in Murray’s HUMAN ACCOMPLISHMENT (304-305). The South is a vast blank. The states of New England plus New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey alone produced 184 significant figures by 1950, whereas the states that made up the Confederacy only produced 24, a ratio of more than 7:1.And, as Murray notes, the disparity becomes all the more striking when population percentages are taken into account:


    “An even more striking aspect of the map is the white space covering the American South. Although more lightly populated than the North, the American South had a substantial population throughout American history.In 1850, for example, the White population of the South was 5.6 million, compared to 8.5 million in the Northeast. In 1900 the comparison was 12.1 million to 20.6 million. By 1950, the gap had almost closed-36.9 million compared to 37.4 million.While it is understandable that the South did not have as many significant figures as the North, the magnitude of the difference goes far beyond population” (HUMAN ACCOMPLISHMENT, 304-5).
     
    Henry Cabot Lodge (whose 1891 survey “The Distribution of Ability in the United States” showed a similar Southern achievement gap) was quite certain that slavery was to blame:

    No finer people ever existed
    than those who settled and built up our Southern
    States, but when slavery became, in the
    course of the world’s progress, and in a free
    country, nothing less than a hideous anomaly,
    it warped the community in which it flourished,
    limited the range of intellectual activity,
    dwarfed ability, and retarded terribly the advance
    of civilization. It is wonderful that the
    people who labored beneath the burden of a
    slave system achieved as much as they did, and
    the mass of ability which they produced under
    such adverse conditions is a striking proof of
    the strength of the race. The effects of slavery
    are painfully apparent in these tables, and only
    time will enable the people who suffered by
    the evil system to recover from them.
     
    https://www.unz.org/Pub/Century-1891sep-00687

    An America without Blacks would be a really wonderful place.

    Replies: @res

  107. @syonredux

    "In general, Wokeness seems to me, as a Californian, to be a covert South-centrist movement that assumes the South was always the hub of American history, even though it was a depressed backwater from 1865 until the later 20th century.)"
     
    Steve, relative to the North, the South was a depressed backwater prior to 1865. The North had a more developed railway system (in 1861, the North had 22,000 miles of track vs only 9,500 miles in the South), bigger cities (New Orleans was the only Deep South city in the top ten urban areas in 1860), a larger shipping industry, more factories, etc.

    Replies: @syonredux

    People have to face facts: Slavery did the South a lot of harm. For confirmation, just look at the map showing the concentration of significant figures in the USA prior to 1950 in Murray’s HUMAN ACCOMPLISHMENT (304-305). The South is a vast blank. The states of New England plus New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey alone produced 184 significant figures by 1950, whereas the states that made up the Confederacy only produced 24, a ratio of more than 7:1.And, as Murray notes, the disparity becomes all the more striking when population percentages are taken into account:

    “An even more striking aspect of the map is the white space covering the American South. Although more lightly populated than the North, the American South had a substantial population throughout American history.In 1850, for example, the White population of the South was 5.6 million, compared to 8.5 million in the Northeast. In 1900 the comparison was 12.1 million to 20.6 million. By 1950, the gap had almost closed-36.9 million compared to 37.4 million.While it is understandable that the South did not have as many significant figures as the North, the magnitude of the difference goes far beyond population” (HUMAN ACCOMPLISHMENT, 304-5).

    Henry Cabot Lodge (whose 1891 survey “The Distribution of Ability in the United States” showed a similar Southern achievement gap) was quite certain that slavery was to blame:

    No finer people ever existed
    than those who settled and built up our Southern
    States, but when slavery became, in the
    course of the world’s progress, and in a free
    country, nothing less than a hideous anomaly,
    it warped the community in which it flourished,
    limited the range of intellectual activity,
    dwarfed ability, and retarded terribly the advance
    of civilization. It is wonderful that the
    people who labored beneath the burden of a
    slave system achieved as much as they did, and
    the mass of ability which they produced under
    such adverse conditions is a striking proof of
    the strength of the race. The effects of slavery
    are painfully apparent in these tables, and only
    time will enable the people who suffered by
    the evil system to recover from them.

    https://www.unz.org/Pub/Century-1891sep-00687

    An America without Blacks would be a really wonderful place.

    • Replies: @res
    @syonredux

    I think slavery was a big part of that, but also consider these possibilities.

    1. The people who settled the South followed a way of life which made intellectual achievement less possible (priorities).
    2. The people who settled the South were less capable of intellectual achievement (ability).
    3. The physical environment of the South made intellectual achievement less possible (environment).

    I think 2. is the least likely of those. In particular, note the achievements of Virginia and Virginians.

    But I do think both 1. and 3. are relevant. IMHO both of those are tightly coupled with slavery though. 3. as a reason black labor was desirable (more tolerant of the environment) and 1. as making slavery useful for achieving those priorities (an argument could be made for the reverse causality there, slavery causing some of those priorities).

  108. res says:
    @YetAnotherAnon
    @res

    The UK has income data for full time men and women from 1968 for Great Britain (England/Scotland/Wales) Better still, it's split into percentile groups - 10%, 25%, 50% (median), 75%, 90%.

    The same data's available from 1979 for the UK (same plus Northern Ireland).

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/previousReleases

    The only thing it could do with, which I haven't yet looked seriously for (it may be somewhere in the data) is the actual numbers in each category. Be interesting to see how female full time employment rose from the 1970s, when a factory worker could afford a stay at home mother raising their children.

    Replies: @res

    I should have been clearer. The data I meant was income quintiles broken down by race. Here is the census data for personal income.
    https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/historical-income-people.html
    No quintiles broken down by race there. Which seems odd given that there are 53 different tables there.

    I wanted to look at how the racial gap changed across the income distribution (to contrast with the plot at the start of Steve’s post).

    Looking closer at that Figure 1 plot, it controls variables in a way that makes it even less comparable to the raw census data than I thought.

  109. res says:
    @syonredux
    @syonredux

    People have to face facts: Slavery did the South a lot of harm. For confirmation, just look at the map showing the concentration of significant figures in the USA prior to 1950 in Murray’s HUMAN ACCOMPLISHMENT (304-305). The South is a vast blank. The states of New England plus New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey alone produced 184 significant figures by 1950, whereas the states that made up the Confederacy only produced 24, a ratio of more than 7:1.And, as Murray notes, the disparity becomes all the more striking when population percentages are taken into account:


    “An even more striking aspect of the map is the white space covering the American South. Although more lightly populated than the North, the American South had a substantial population throughout American history.In 1850, for example, the White population of the South was 5.6 million, compared to 8.5 million in the Northeast. In 1900 the comparison was 12.1 million to 20.6 million. By 1950, the gap had almost closed-36.9 million compared to 37.4 million.While it is understandable that the South did not have as many significant figures as the North, the magnitude of the difference goes far beyond population” (HUMAN ACCOMPLISHMENT, 304-5).
     
    Henry Cabot Lodge (whose 1891 survey “The Distribution of Ability in the United States” showed a similar Southern achievement gap) was quite certain that slavery was to blame:

    No finer people ever existed
    than those who settled and built up our Southern
    States, but when slavery became, in the
    course of the world’s progress, and in a free
    country, nothing less than a hideous anomaly,
    it warped the community in which it flourished,
    limited the range of intellectual activity,
    dwarfed ability, and retarded terribly the advance
    of civilization. It is wonderful that the
    people who labored beneath the burden of a
    slave system achieved as much as they did, and
    the mass of ability which they produced under
    such adverse conditions is a striking proof of
    the strength of the race. The effects of slavery
    are painfully apparent in these tables, and only
    time will enable the people who suffered by
    the evil system to recover from them.
     
    https://www.unz.org/Pub/Century-1891sep-00687

    An America without Blacks would be a really wonderful place.

    Replies: @res

    I think slavery was a big part of that, but also consider these possibilities.

    1. The people who settled the South followed a way of life which made intellectual achievement less possible (priorities).
    2. The people who settled the South were less capable of intellectual achievement (ability).
    3. The physical environment of the South made intellectual achievement less possible (environment).

    I think 2. is the least likely of those. In particular, note the achievements of Virginia and Virginians.

    But I do think both 1. and 3. are relevant. IMHO both of those are tightly coupled with slavery though. 3. as a reason black labor was desirable (more tolerant of the environment) and 1. as making slavery useful for achieving those priorities (an argument could be made for the reverse causality there, slavery causing some of those priorities).

  110. res says:

    (TLDR: If anyone has an explanation for the trend in Abstract tasks mentioned below, please comment. I am baffled.)

    I finally looked closer at the paper which provided Figure 1 (which Steve linked at Taki’s)
    https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29022/w29022.pdf
    and I would say that Figure 2 provides a more interesting look at the gap trajectory.

    As Steve described in his longer piece, they broke down job categories as follows.

    The authors cleverly measure the waning of dislike for blacks by first ranking jobs in terms of how strongly each emphasizes Contact, Abstract, Manual, and Routine tasks.

    High human Contact jobs include sales clerks, waiters, health care workers, and some managers.

    Specifically, “Contact” measures the extent to which an occupation requires interaction and communication with others within the organization (co-workers) or outside the organization (customers/clients).

    These were historically occupations where taste-based discrimination against blacks was often worst.

    High Abstract thinking workers include software developers, accountants, engineers, and some managers.

    High Manual jobs require dexterity, such as carpenters.

    Steve quoted the author’s conclusion.

    …we find that the stagnation in the racial wage gap post-1980 is a product of two offsetting forces. On the one hand, a narrowing of racial skill gaps and declining discrimination between 1980 and 2018 caused the racial wage gap to narrow by 8 percentage points during this period, all else equal. On the other hand, the changing returns to tasks since 1980—particularly the increasing return to Abstract tasks—widened the racial wage gap by about 7 percentage points during the same period. A rise in the return to Abstract tasks disadvantages Black workers because they are underrepresented in these tasks due to a combination of racial skill gaps and discrimination.

    Figure 2 is interesting, but I find it a bit hard to understand. The four categories all behave differently. If I understand it correctly, Figure 2 represents the relative tendency of whites and blacks to sort into each category by decade from 1960 to 2000, then for 2012 and 2018. Panel A is raw data and Panel B includes controls for age and education.

    Manual tasks start a bit above 0 (I am guessing discrimination causing more qualified blacks to do manual tasks instead) to a bit below 0 (adjusted 2018 is on par with contact tasks).

    Contact tasks start at -4 to -5 with a rapid ascent through 1990 followed by a slower ascent to around par with manual tasks.

    Routine tasks start around -5 with a rapid ascent through 1990 followed by a gradual decline.

    Abstract tasks seem the most interesting case. First, notice how much of a difference controlling for age and education makes (close to a +1 offset). Surprisingly to me the trend is almost flat from 1960 to 2000. Then there is a gradual decline in 2012 and a sharper decline in 2018.

    I find it hard to reconcile that behavior for Abstract tasks with either of these.
    – Civil rights resulting in less discrimination against blacks (why almost no change 1960-1980?).
    – Affirmative action resulting in ever increasing pressure to hire blacks (why a downtrend from 2000 to date including the Obama years and The Great Awokening?).

    Anyone have any ideas? The only thing which occurs to me is blacks with the abstract ability to succeed at abstract tasks choosing instead to focus on contact tasks (especially the figurehead variety) which pay better instead. I think there is a hint of this in the way they separate managers into the abstract and contact categories.

    That paper is 53 pages long and quite information dense. Here is another 36 pages of information appendix in case anyone is interested.
    https://data.nber.org/data-appendix/w29022/task_discrimination_nber_june_2021_appendix.pdf

    • Replies: @epebble
    @res

    I think a possible answer is increasing levels of automation (and software in lieu of hardware) in most industries. Most manufacturing jobs nowadays require basic programming ability to setup jobs on various computer controlled machines (like for example, quite an abstract program with 3-D graphics to saw lumber here in Oregon). Previously, people used to learn on the job. Now, they will give a trigonometry test and pick only those who can read all the charts on the LCD screen. A solid modeler program probably scares away a lot of people who were quite capable of putting together a (car) transmission in the pre-computer days. You should see Murata's spinning machines (to spin yarn). It puts to shame all the technology used in 1960s by NASA to send men to moon.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @res

  111. @epebble
    @Clyde

    All those things and Technology too. With the birth of automation, value of physical labor is very low compared to "thinking" skills. So the trifecta of technology, globalization and immigration means those who primarily relied on physical labor and short and shallow learning curve have no value in modern economy. Unfortunately, that may be a third to half of labor force with a disproportionate share of blacks and may be Hispanics too. So we are compelled to have, (in the absence of major wealth transfer) a bimodal economy with Europe/Asia characteristics on top half and Africa/South America characteristics at the bottom half.

    Replies: @Clyde, @anon

    Yes, globalization and automation killed a lot of jobs for black men. Then they had to compete with Hispanic men for labor jobs, which they felt was beneath them. This latter reason is what older black men themselves tell me, and it seems pretty reasonable.

  112. @res
    (TLDR: If anyone has an explanation for the trend in Abstract tasks mentioned below, please comment. I am baffled.)

    I finally looked closer at the paper which provided Figure 1 (which Steve linked at Taki's)
    https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29022/w29022.pdf
    and I would say that Figure 2 provides a more interesting look at the gap trajectory.

    As Steve described in his longer piece, they broke down job categories as follows.


    The authors cleverly measure the waning of dislike for blacks by first ranking jobs in terms of how strongly each emphasizes Contact, Abstract, Manual, and Routine tasks.

    High human Contact jobs include sales clerks, waiters, health care workers, and some managers.


    Specifically, “Contact” measures the extent to which an occupation requires interaction and communication with others within the organization (co-workers) or outside the organization (customers/clients).
     
    These were historically occupations where taste-based discrimination against blacks was often worst.

    High Abstract thinking workers include software developers, accountants, engineers, and some managers.

    High Manual jobs require dexterity, such as carpenters.
     

    Steve quoted the author's conclusion.

    …we find that the stagnation in the racial wage gap post-1980 is a product of two offsetting forces. On the one hand, a narrowing of racial skill gaps and declining discrimination between 1980 and 2018 caused the racial wage gap to narrow by 8 percentage points during this period, all else equal. On the other hand, the changing returns to tasks since 1980—particularly the increasing return to Abstract tasks—widened the racial wage gap by about 7 percentage points during the same period. A rise in the return to Abstract tasks disadvantages Black workers because they are underrepresented in these tasks due to a combination of racial skill gaps and discrimination.
     
    Figure 2 is interesting, but I find it a bit hard to understand. The four categories all behave differently. If I understand it correctly, Figure 2 represents the relative tendency of whites and blacks to sort into each category by decade from 1960 to 2000, then for 2012 and 2018. Panel A is raw data and Panel B includes controls for age and education.

    Manual tasks start a bit above 0 (I am guessing discrimination causing more qualified blacks to do manual tasks instead) to a bit below 0 (adjusted 2018 is on par with contact tasks).

    Contact tasks start at -4 to -5 with a rapid ascent through 1990 followed by a slower ascent to around par with manual tasks.

    Routine tasks start around -5 with a rapid ascent through 1990 followed by a gradual decline.

    Abstract tasks seem the most interesting case. First, notice how much of a difference controlling for age and education makes (close to a +1 offset). Surprisingly to me the trend is almost flat from 1960 to 2000. Then there is a gradual decline in 2012 and a sharper decline in 2018.

    I find it hard to reconcile that behavior for Abstract tasks with either of these.
    - Civil rights resulting in less discrimination against blacks (why almost no change 1960-1980?).
    - Affirmative action resulting in ever increasing pressure to hire blacks (why a downtrend from 2000 to date including the Obama years and The Great Awokening?).

    Anyone have any ideas? The only thing which occurs to me is blacks with the abstract ability to succeed at abstract tasks choosing instead to focus on contact tasks (especially the figurehead variety) which pay better instead. I think there is a hint of this in the way they separate managers into the abstract and contact categories.

    That paper is 53 pages long and quite information dense. Here is another 36 pages of information appendix in case anyone is interested.
    https://data.nber.org/data-appendix/w29022/task_discrimination_nber_june_2021_appendix.pdf

    Replies: @epebble

    I think a possible answer is increasing levels of automation (and software in lieu of hardware) in most industries. Most manufacturing jobs nowadays require basic programming ability to setup jobs on various computer controlled machines (like for example, quite an abstract program with 3-D graphics to saw lumber here in Oregon). Previously, people used to learn on the job. Now, they will give a trigonometry test and pick only those who can read all the charts on the LCD screen. A solid modeler program probably scares away a lot of people who were quite capable of putting together a (car) transmission in the pre-computer days. You should see Murata’s spinning machines (to spin yarn). It puts to shame all the technology used in 1960s by NASA to send men to moon.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @epebble

    Reading about the brainpower needed to be a high end machinist today sounds like what qualified by dad to be an aeronautical engineer in 1938.

    , @res
    @epebble

    That sounds like a reasonable candidate. Positing that causing a downtrend which counterbalanced the behavior seen in the other task categories. Not sure it explains the accelerating down trend seen in 2012 and 2018 though.

  113. @epebble
    @res

    I think a possible answer is increasing levels of automation (and software in lieu of hardware) in most industries. Most manufacturing jobs nowadays require basic programming ability to setup jobs on various computer controlled machines (like for example, quite an abstract program with 3-D graphics to saw lumber here in Oregon). Previously, people used to learn on the job. Now, they will give a trigonometry test and pick only those who can read all the charts on the LCD screen. A solid modeler program probably scares away a lot of people who were quite capable of putting together a (car) transmission in the pre-computer days. You should see Murata's spinning machines (to spin yarn). It puts to shame all the technology used in 1960s by NASA to send men to moon.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @res

    Reading about the brainpower needed to be a high end machinist today sounds like what qualified by dad to be an aeronautical engineer in 1938.

  114. @Barbarossa
    @Clyde

    You are correct. I was waiting to see who would mention this point. Because they were at the lowest rung of the economic ladder after the Great Migration, blacks were reliant on those industrial jobs to gain a position in the middle class. Needless to say, globalization put a kibosh on that prospect.

    As JohnnyWalker123 points out, this is not just a black problem. I live in what one could consider a white rural slum area. Unfortunately, the white working class is turning to many of the same destructive patterns that have dominated black urban areas. Whites are just a couple decades behind in terms of dysfunction.

    Replies: @Clyde

    I live in what one could consider a white rural slum area. Unfortunately, the white working class is turning to many of the same destructive patterns that have dominated black urban areas. Whites are just a couple decades behind in terms of dysfunction.

    Youngstown Ohio was a famous steel making town. After all this closes down how does their economy function at all for whites who remain? The answer is transfer payments from Ohio and Washington DC.

    Republic Steel & Youngstown Sheet & Tube were the major employers from the early 20th century until 1977. In that year, Youngstown Sheet & Tube laid off 5,000 workers in one day.

    I have a 12″ stainless steel ruler from Republic Steel. These were given out to customers and others. A way of advertising.

  115. @epebble
    @res

    I think a possible answer is increasing levels of automation (and software in lieu of hardware) in most industries. Most manufacturing jobs nowadays require basic programming ability to setup jobs on various computer controlled machines (like for example, quite an abstract program with 3-D graphics to saw lumber here in Oregon). Previously, people used to learn on the job. Now, they will give a trigonometry test and pick only those who can read all the charts on the LCD screen. A solid modeler program probably scares away a lot of people who were quite capable of putting together a (car) transmission in the pre-computer days. You should see Murata's spinning machines (to spin yarn). It puts to shame all the technology used in 1960s by NASA to send men to moon.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @res

    That sounds like a reasonable candidate. Positing that causing a downtrend which counterbalanced the behavior seen in the other task categories. Not sure it explains the accelerating down trend seen in 2012 and 2018 though.

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