I’m getting depressed about covid.
It’s suddenly pretty bad again in SoCal.
A friend’s mom is in the hospital with it even though she appeared to have had it before.
And the Israel and UK data suggests that the vaccines don’t work quite as well against the current Delta variant from India as they had against the original and previous variants.
Hopefully, they mostly still keep you out of the hospital.
But what if they don’t?
We’ve been assuming that we will get to herd immunity one way or another: either the easy way (vaccination) or the hard way (infection).
But what if the vaccines are only moderately effective against new variants and the virus keeps evolving so that prior infections don’t offer much protection?
Then the question would be whether people who survived early variants would keep surviving reinfection every few years?
Perhaps they would. But what if the variants are not just evolving to be more infectious (which would be logically expected) but also evolving to be more lethal (which could happen by accident)?
If they did, then we would appear to be headed toward Twelve Monkeys time, which would be bad.
Anyway, if you can cheer me up, I’d appreciate it.