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https://twitter.com/_alice_evans/status/1422469772063748106

On the other hand, if the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left.

An important question is which is cause and effect: did the liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility? Or did the low fertility cause the liberalization of South Korean culture?

 
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  1. What’s more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

    • Replies: @JMcG
    @Castlereagh

    Winning the Second World War.

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @Castlereagh


    What’s more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

     

    Can you name a single society where the effect of embracing Darwinism was eugenic? Those who "believe in science" were too busy sterilizing others to have children themselves.


    Czech Republic to compensate Roma women for forced sterilizations

    https://knoema.com/atlas/Czech-Republic/Fertility-rate

    Is this effect universal? Does Darwin, like Marx, negate himself in practice?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon

    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @Castlereagh

    I was about to write "I got nuthin'", but then thought about the importation of a replacement population. Feminism can at least be reversed.

    Replies: @Nimrod, @megabar

    , @anon
    @Castlereagh

    What’s more catastrophic for a country than feminism?

    Population replacement.

    , @AnotherDad
    @Castlereagh


    What’s more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?
     
    Minoritarianism and its spawn, immigration.


    Seriously, modernity is a challenge. Lots of people are fascinated to the geegaws of modern life. And yeah--feminism. Women are compliant and when the culture changes to tell them that career and shopping and this and that toy is important, they'll buy it.

    But here's the thing:

    If you don't import people your nation will recover.

    The women whose inclination is toward "children", will simply outbreed women whose inclination is toward "status"--whether "career" or "enjoying distractions of modern life".

    Jobs will become more plentiful and higher paid--higher capital inputs, more automation, less drudgery. Housing cheaper. More open space. Less crowding and contention for everything from a spot on the highway to space on beach or a mountain trail. Fewer people makes family formation easier, for those who wish it.

    We'll get a somewhat altered distribution of genes. And actually it will be pretty nice. Some genetic attributes that worked in the past--variously for either men or women or both--that got women knocked up, without a whole lot of interest/desire for family ... will fade. Some attributes which encourage men and especially women to form families and have children, will become more common. The nation--the people who make up the nation--will become more "family oriented". Like i said "pretty nice".

    But ...

    Your nation only recovers if you can keep minoritarianism/immigrationism out.

    Otherwise you are dispossessed before selection leads to recovery. Minoritarianism is death.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    , @Anonymous
    @Castlereagh

    Third world immigration.

    , @Alden
    @Castlereagh

    Here’s a few things more detrimental than feminism. Islam Judaism Israelism communism environmentalism covid hoaxism liberalism negroism especially black male felonism.

    Feminism’s just one of the many destructive isms. And it was a creation of the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations. To suddenly increase the available work force by about one third. And raise prices to the amount only 2 income families could afford. Basically a conservative capitalist employer standard policy to drive down wages by increasing the work force .

    Just think of all the great American cities destroyed by negroism and black male felonism. There are worse things than feminism; negroism.

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Castlereagh

    If feminism is the cause of the "apocalypse", and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn't you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    Replies: @J.Ross, @anon, @anon, @Mehen, @AnotherDad, @Anon

  2. At some point they’ll take over North Korea to increase their population.

  3. The liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility. I don’t see this as a hard quesion.

    Alice Evans may be happy, but Korean society will suffer. The real root of S. Korea’s current and future problems is the failure to realize that society was being infiltrated by Communists while and after the external Commies were defeated. It’s the exact same stupidity as America’s. BTW, though it was very Jewish-influenced here, can one say the same thing about the deal in S. Korea? (Or, was it the indirect influence through American influence?)

  4. There are not enough Black Men to give the women strong children

    • Replies: @Colin Wright
    @Anon

    'There are not enough Black Men to give the women strong children'

    Don't be disgusting.

    Replies: @fish

    , @Spect3r
    @Anon

    They also dont have enough prisons to put those babies when they grow up.

    , @bomag
    @Anon

    That's another path to extinction.

    , @SunBakedSuburb
    @Anon

    "not enough Black Men"

    Just think of the possibilities of black/Korean cross-species breeding: a super RTK with the famous black body guided by a Korean brain. This is the solution to the problem of who will protect white men. I would lend a hand but I'm busy generating human-insect hybrids for my trip to Yahweh's planet.

  5. “An important question is which is cause and effect: did the liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility? Or did the low fertility cause the liberalization of South Korean culture?”

    Uh, yes. It’s both. Chicken, egg. Both are needed to play a role in a nation’s ultimate decline.

    • Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    Once you emancipate and educate women they prefer smaller family size. Educated people also know that the ecological Holocaust is caused by over-consumption driven by over-population, and know that large families are not what is required in these, End,-times.

    Replies: @WigWig

  6. “Democratic” and “democracy” seem to have become general purpose weasel words for “whatever neoliberal globalists want today,” or how easily they can manipulate a country’s affairs to get what they want. It has nothing to do with actual self-rule by any people. 40%+ of U.S. voters doubting the legitimacy of a questionable election conducted under newly made up rules is an “assault on democracy.” Viktor Orban supporting what the Hungarian people voted for and making getting a foothold difficult for Soros-funded foreign degeneracy is “anti-democratic.” You’ll see a lot clearer these days if you teach yourself to read “democracy” anywhere it appears as “globalist tricks.”

    Of course, this has a historical parallel in the Communists’ appropriation of “democracy” (see, e.g., the “German Democratic Republic,” the “Democratic People’s Republic of Korea”).

    • Thanks: Calvin Hobbes
    • Replies: @Anon
    @Thomas


    It has nothing to do with actual self-rule by any people. 40%+ of U.S. voters doubting the legitimacy of a questionable election conducted under newly made up rules is an “assault on democracy.”
     
    The MIGA mob reminded me a lot of the MeToo mob during the Kavanaugh hearings. B-B-But I'm UPSET!!!!!! was used as a substitute for an actual logical argument. As Ilana Mercer said, menstrual America vs MIGA America.

    Replies: @Thomas

  7. An important question is which is cause and effect: did the liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility? Or did the low fertility cause the liberalization of South Korean culture?

    Related: why did East Asian societies that have been relatively prosperous and Westernized (i.e., South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) face an even more dramatic fertility crash than Europe or North America? If you assume the culprit is “democracy,” however conceived, those Asian countries have had a shorter and arguably less thorough experience with it than the West. (Singapore and Hong Kong also aren’t democracies.) There’s a big difference between 0.98 TFR and 1.3 or 1.4 (what you might find in a country like Italy). Maybe wealth, rather than “democracy,” is the culprit, humans not being able to breed in comfortable captivity.

    • Agree: S. Anonyia
    • Replies: @Spangel226
    @Thomas

    The fertility rates of Qatar, UAE and Bahrain are all less than replacement as well. The uae is as low as a typical European country. Those countries are rich but aren’t culturally bastions of progressivism.

    I’ve observed that the biggest contributor to low fertility is a decline in marriage rate. The second biggest contributor is that so few have large families. In the 1950s, families with 5 or more kids were not rare. Now I never see them. A society needs a substantial fraction of the populace having huge families to compensate for all those individuals who have no kids. This has been the case for centuries.

    As for the decline in marriage rate, I’m not sure what the real driver is here. Lack of economic need for husbands on part of women? Lack of physical need for women on part of men because of porn?

    Ultimately, it seems that people forgo additional children or having children at all because there are so many other compelling diversions that can occupy ones time. Leisure is so alluring these days and children eat that up, no matter how much money. Even amongst the very wealthy, so many choose to have only a couple of kids because no matter how much money, kids take a lot of time.

    Replies: @Thomas, @Patrick McNally

    , @Spangel226
    @Thomas

    Looking at the fertility rates of various states, we see how little conservative values do for fertility in the face of our modern economic conditions. Yes, the conservative states are more fertile, but not always by much. And their rate of fertility has been collapsing as the years go on. Now even Utah is below replacement-

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_fertility_rate

    In 2021, Saudi Arabia’s fertility rate is 2.2, just barely above replacement. One expects that it will fall below within the decade. Saudi Arabia must be the most extreme possible anti feminist country to still maintain a high standard of living. And still their fertility rate has declined precipitously in the last 20 years and looks like it will continue to do so, even with women having less autonomy than children do in the west.

    The only well off country anywhere to buck the trend is Israel. seems like what we all need is a belief we are the chosen people and the constant and immediate threat of an enemy.

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    , @Steve Sailer
    @Thomas

    Density, I imagine. Singapore, for all it's wealth, is a really crowded place.

    Replies: @BernardLMontgomery, @SIMP simp

    , @Matt Buckalew
    @Thomas

    No rural/ suburban Christianity.

    , @Erik Sieven
    @Thomas

    In non-east Asian countries there is a certain resistance against modernity. People who live in the countryside and have lots of children. Those people lack in East Asian countries.

  8. @Anon
    There are not enough Black Men to give the women strong children

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @Spect3r, @bomag, @SunBakedSuburb

    ‘There are not enough Black Men to give the women strong children’

    Don’t be disgusting.

    • Replies: @fish
    @Colin Wright

    Don’t be Tiny Duck....

  9. Potentially ill-informed hypothesis: this is due to sex-selective abortion in the past. The abundance of men makes it easier for women to delay marriage further and further knowing a B-male will always be waiting.

    The standard stereotype is that Koreans are more susceptible to foreign ideologies than Chinese or Japanese: whether Christianity, communism, and now wokismo. The NYT article (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/01/world/asia/south-korea-metoo-ahn-hee-jung.html) is kinda funny(though one should always remember the possibility of mistranslation here)

    Throughout the trial, Mr. Ahn insisted that his sexual relationship with Ms. Kim had been consensual. His lawyers argued that she had not acted like a victim during the period in which she said she was raped.

    They noted that she had accompanied Mr. Ahn to restaurants and wine bars, and they presented into evidence messages she had sent him, which they said showed her friendliness toward him. The lower court ruled that Ms. Kim lacked credibility.

    But the appeals court rejected what it called the defense’s “stereotyped” view of a rape victim. It said that it found Ms. Kim’s testimony credible, consistent and detailed, and that Mr. Ahn had enough power to coerce her into unwanted sexual relations.{snip}

    In September, a well-known theater director, Lee Youn-taek, was sentenced to six years in prison for sexually abusing actresses. In November, a prominent pastor received a 15-year sentence for raping female followers who said he had deceived them into believing he was God.

    Ah, shucks, that was my best pickup line!

  10. @Castlereagh
    What's more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

    Replies: @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar, @Achmed E. Newman, @anon, @AnotherDad, @Anonymous, @Alden, @Triteleia Laxa

    Winning the Second World War.

  11. @Thomas

    An important question is which is cause and effect: did the liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility? Or did the low fertility cause the liberalization of South Korean culture?
     
    Related: why did East Asian societies that have been relatively prosperous and Westernized (i.e., South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) face an even more dramatic fertility crash than Europe or North America? If you assume the culprit is "democracy," however conceived, those Asian countries have had a shorter and arguably less thorough experience with it than the West. (Singapore and Hong Kong also aren't democracies.) There's a big difference between 0.98 TFR and 1.3 or 1.4 (what you might find in a country like Italy). Maybe wealth, rather than "democracy," is the culprit, humans not being able to breed in comfortable captivity.

    Replies: @Spangel226, @Spangel226, @Steve Sailer, @Matt Buckalew, @Erik Sieven

    The fertility rates of Qatar, UAE and Bahrain are all less than replacement as well. The uae is as low as a typical European country. Those countries are rich but aren’t culturally bastions of progressivism.

    I’ve observed that the biggest contributor to low fertility is a decline in marriage rate. The second biggest contributor is that so few have large families. In the 1950s, families with 5 or more kids were not rare. Now I never see them. A society needs a substantial fraction of the populace having huge families to compensate for all those individuals who have no kids. This has been the case for centuries.

    As for the decline in marriage rate, I’m not sure what the real driver is here. Lack of economic need for husbands on part of women? Lack of physical need for women on part of men because of porn?

    Ultimately, it seems that people forgo additional children or having children at all because there are so many other compelling diversions that can occupy ones time. Leisure is so alluring these days and children eat that up, no matter how much money. Even amongst the very wealthy, so many choose to have only a couple of kids because no matter how much money, kids take a lot of time.

    • Agree: Triteleia Laxa
    • Replies: @Thomas
    @Spangel226


    Ultimately, it seems that people forgo additional children or having children at all because there are so many other compelling diversions that can occupy ones time. Leisure is so alluring these days and children eat that up, no matter how much money. Even amongst the very wealthy, so many choose to have only a couple of kids because no matter how much money, kids take a lot of time.
     
    The consequences of not having children also are delayed and not necessarily all that apparent. By the time people realize they would've liked to have a family, it's generally too late. And the sad and lonely old are, by definition, largely invisible, so the consequences of their choices aren't communicated widely. In Japan, there's an industry that specializes in cleaning out apartments where the tenant has died without anyone noticing and has putrefied until the neighbors said something.

    Replies: @Pericles, @Moses

    , @Patrick McNally
    @Spangel226

    There's a ripple effect which starts out slowly and spreads over time starting from the hottest young women (10s in customary parlance). If these girls are all raised with the idea that they are to marry early and become mothers soon then the effect is to force the most Alpha young males into early marriage and getting off the market. That then clears the way for a new layer of Betas to marry the slightly less attractive women and opens the doors for the Deltas. Carried far enough this can result in a society where by age 30 most of the Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma, Omega, Sigma and even Lambda males have all settled into some type of traditional marriage.

    Turning it the other way, if the young hotties are not trained by parents to seek early marriage and motherhood, then this disincentivizes the Alpha males away from such early marriage. If an Alpha must choose between marrying a 5 or banging a bunch of 10s, which way would you expect him to go? So the Alpha stays on the market longer without marrying. In the process though, he probably does bang a bunch of 5s and 6s just to fill in time. These women who once would have made a natural partner for the typical Delta are now spoiled for that. With the Alphas incentivized to stay on the open market longer, the Betas must follow. Carried on in this way marriage gradually becomes a down-graded option all around.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Spangel226, @Gabe Ruth, @Whiskey, @AnotherDad

  12. Why worry. If the population decreases to a comfortable level then fertility rates will rise to compensate.

    It’s uncomfortable to live as family in Korea.

    Do we really expect a booming population in a tiny island nation where people have to live on top of each other?

    • Replies: @DanHessinMD
    @Kaz

    "Do we really expect a booming population in a tiny island nation where people have to live on top of each other?"

    If you have ever lived in Korea, you would realize that even in crowded Korea, people choose to live packed far more tightly than they need to be.

    Look at this map:
    http://imagedata.cafe24.com/us_c/us_c_41-1.jpg

    Most of Korea is sparse and empty!

    Almost everyone is choosing to live packed tightly into Seoul. You could take away 75% of the land area of Korea and hardly anyone would notice!

    Replies: @Gimeiyo, @Carroll Price

  13. “Education fever” is the big cultural factor, everything else just a bit player. Private education spending has surged, and you can’t afford this for more than one kid. Also, with only one kid, the kid can’t play with a sibling and be distracted from studying. Also, it’s easier to ride herd over the one kid, shake the kid if he or she tries to sleep too much.

    • LOL: Achmed E. Newman
  14. @Thomas

    An important question is which is cause and effect: did the liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility? Or did the low fertility cause the liberalization of South Korean culture?
     
    Related: why did East Asian societies that have been relatively prosperous and Westernized (i.e., South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) face an even more dramatic fertility crash than Europe or North America? If you assume the culprit is "democracy," however conceived, those Asian countries have had a shorter and arguably less thorough experience with it than the West. (Singapore and Hong Kong also aren't democracies.) There's a big difference between 0.98 TFR and 1.3 or 1.4 (what you might find in a country like Italy). Maybe wealth, rather than "democracy," is the culprit, humans not being able to breed in comfortable captivity.

    Replies: @Spangel226, @Spangel226, @Steve Sailer, @Matt Buckalew, @Erik Sieven

    Looking at the fertility rates of various states, we see how little conservative values do for fertility in the face of our modern economic conditions. Yes, the conservative states are more fertile, but not always by much. And their rate of fertility has been collapsing as the years go on. Now even Utah is below replacement-

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_fertility_rate

    In 2021, Saudi Arabia’s fertility rate is 2.2, just barely above replacement. One expects that it will fall below within the decade. Saudi Arabia must be the most extreme possible anti feminist country to still maintain a high standard of living. And still their fertility rate has declined precipitously in the last 20 years and looks like it will continue to do so, even with women having less autonomy than children do in the west.

    The only well off country anywhere to buck the trend is Israel. seems like what we all need is a belief we are the chosen people and the constant and immediate threat of an enemy.

    • Agree: Triteleia Laxa
    • Replies: @Intelligent Dasein
    @Spangel226

    I don't really like to assign causes to phenomena like declining birthrates because the issue has a spiritual component which is only loosely connected to material circumstances; but with that being said, I think the main factor (and this would account for the evil affecting traditional patriarchal as well as Westernized societies) is that too many people are surviving to old age. The genius of the race strives to balance the birthrate against the death-rate, modulo expanding (or contracting) vistas. The birthrate will rise moderately once the overburden of old people are removed, but that obviously will not lead to absolute increases in population size.

  15. Anonymous[387] • Disclaimer says:

    Feminism of the non-Betty Friedan et al type isn’t socially destructive and can be part of the creation and maintenance of a powerful sense of ethnic nationality.

    (William Rooney was an Irish nationalist and author of the poem “Men of the West.”)

  16. @Castlereagh
    What's more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

    Replies: @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar, @Achmed E. Newman, @anon, @AnotherDad, @Anonymous, @Alden, @Triteleia Laxa

    What’s more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

    Can you name a single society where the effect of embracing Darwinism was eugenic? Those who “believe in science” were too busy sterilizing others to have children themselves.

    Czech Republic to compensate Roma women for forced sterilizations

    https://knoema.com/atlas/Czech-Republic/Fertility-rate

    Is this effect universal? Does Darwin, like Marx, negate himself in practice?

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Reg Cæsar

    Galton noticed that his cousin Darwin had 10 children but only 9 grandchildren.

    The English upper class was becoming much less fertile in the mid-Victorian era as knowledge of French contraceptive techniques spread quietly behind posh doors.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    , @Anon
    @Reg Cæsar

    It's a race to collapse between the inability of atheists to reproduce themselves and the inability of the religious to pass their superstitions onto their children. So far the atheists have the upper hand, but there's no guarantee that will continue.

    I recently decided, just for fun, to increase the age range on the online dating site by about five years. The result: four times as many profiles with "praise Jesus, glory to Jesus, I'm looking for a man who values Jesus!" Maybe there was a wave of secularization that was massively more impactful on women who were 32 rather than 27. Or maybe these women just pick and choose whatever moral system they want to believe in depending on what it is they want in the moment. I'm sure many were enlightened wymyn demanding affirmative action jobs five years ago.

    End rant.

    Replies: @Tonyblah

  17. @Reg Cæsar
    @Castlereagh


    What’s more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

     

    Can you name a single society where the effect of embracing Darwinism was eugenic? Those who "believe in science" were too busy sterilizing others to have children themselves.


    Czech Republic to compensate Roma women for forced sterilizations

    https://knoema.com/atlas/Czech-Republic/Fertility-rate

    Is this effect universal? Does Darwin, like Marx, negate himself in practice?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon

    Galton noticed that his cousin Darwin had 10 children but only 9 grandchildren.

    The English upper class was becoming much less fertile in the mid-Victorian era as knowledge of French contraceptive techniques spread quietly behind posh doors.

    • Replies: @Reg Cæsar
    @Steve Sailer


    Galton noticed that his cousin Darwin had 10 children but only 9 grandchildren.

     

    How much did inbreeding contribute to this? I knew a Turing-smart farmer (he also cracked code in WW2) who had seven children and six grandchildren. As one of his barren daughters candidly joked, "They didn't get much return on their investment!"


    Roughly on-topic (e.g., barrenness), Brian S Brown of the National Organization for Marriage just sent this out in an e-mail appeal. The Colorado Court of Appeals ruled, in 303 Creative vs. Elenis, that one can indeed be too smart for one's good.


    In ruling against her, a divided Colorado Court of Appeal panel agreed that forcing website designers to produce websites that celebrate matters they oppose on religious grounds amounts to compelled speech. However, they went on to say that Colorado has the power to compel such speech!


    Incredibly, it isn’t enough that many other website design firms would happily design wedding websites for same-sex couples (just as there are many other wedding cake bakers that LGBT couples could choose other than Jack Phillips). The state appeals court panel held that this particular website designer should be forced to design and produce the website because of her tremendous skill in her craft. The court found that Lorie Smith’s talents are so unique that her refusal to do so amounted to relegating LGBT customers to an inferior market!

    [emphasis in original]
     

    Better watch out, Steve. The Biden Administration may draft you!

    (Sorry, no link-- it would doxx me, hours after being vaxxed. Here is the NR piece it quotes, though:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/bonkers-tenth-circuit-ruling-against-free-speech/ )

    Replies: @res, @MEH 0910

  18. @Castlereagh
    What's more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

    Replies: @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar, @Achmed E. Newman, @anon, @AnotherDad, @Anonymous, @Alden, @Triteleia Laxa

    I was about to write “I got nuthin’”, but then thought about the importation of a replacement population. Feminism can at least be reversed.

    • Agree: Old Prude
    • Replies: @Nimrod
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Actually, population replacement is precisely what the South Korean government is doing. From Peter Frost's blog:

    https://evoandproud.blogspot.com/2021/05/damunwha-in-south-korea.html.

    Some 6% of South Korean schoolchildren are born to damunwha, or wives from non-Korean countries. It appears that they are in the process of becoming an underclass in Korea, allegedly due to racism, actually due to lower cognitive potential.

    The future belongs to Best Korea.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    , @megabar
    @Achmed E. Newman

    > Feminism can at least be reversed.

    My thoughts as well. I rate the damage an insanity produces by how irreversible it is. The transgender issue is possibly a net positive except for those sadly damaged by irresponsible treatment, because it is revealing how nuts our society has become, and its impact is easily reverted.

    Feminism is harder, because society has reorganized itself to expect certain levels of female participation in places that aren't optimal. It's also altered genetics of the nation by lowering fertility of the most capable.

    But immigration is the hardest, because it dramatically changes the genetic makeup of the country, and introduced diversity with its accompanying loss of cohesion, which makes it extremely hard to reverse.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

  19. It’s a no-brainer. Once a society shifts into a post-Enlightenment phase, where every individual believes; however delusional, they have a right to emancipation and self-actualisation on whatever path they choose, women will be unwilling to go through multiple pregnancies, and followed by years being stuck at home and largely isolated from the world, tending to the needs of their babies. Unfortunately, the result is the death of the ethnos or nation. Either they take one for the team or the team collapses.

  20. @Thomas

    An important question is which is cause and effect: did the liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility? Or did the low fertility cause the liberalization of South Korean culture?
     
    Related: why did East Asian societies that have been relatively prosperous and Westernized (i.e., South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) face an even more dramatic fertility crash than Europe or North America? If you assume the culprit is "democracy," however conceived, those Asian countries have had a shorter and arguably less thorough experience with it than the West. (Singapore and Hong Kong also aren't democracies.) There's a big difference between 0.98 TFR and 1.3 or 1.4 (what you might find in a country like Italy). Maybe wealth, rather than "democracy," is the culprit, humans not being able to breed in comfortable captivity.

    Replies: @Spangel226, @Spangel226, @Steve Sailer, @Matt Buckalew, @Erik Sieven

    Density, I imagine. Singapore, for all it’s wealth, is a really crowded place.

    • Replies: @BernardLMontgomery
    @Steve Sailer

    Israel is a very crowded country, more crowded today than 25 years ago, and their birthrate increased during that time. Their standard of living significantly improved as well (if measured by gdp per capita). An increasing birthrate went together with increased wealth, increased crowding and - increased education for females. Additionally, they have a very low suicide rate, about a quarter of South Korea’s. I myself do not believe in miracles, even in the Holy Land. So there is another explanation somewhere.

    Replies: @Fluesterwitz

    , @SIMP simp
    @Steve Sailer

    Communist countries of Eastern Europe saw their TFR drop in the 50's and 60's near or below replacement levels despite still having large rural populations. This prompted young Ceausescu to ban contraception and abortion in 1967, but the fertility boosting effects were short lived, so harsher measures were taken, which in turn had also short lived effects. This cycle repeated several times until Ceausescu was executed by soldiers from the generation born under his infamous decree and than fertility dropped sharply in the 90's.
    2020 had the fewest new births in Romania since before communism. This is partly because the generation born in the 90's is now at peak fertility age and they are fewer than the age cohorts before or after 90's.
    One surprising fact is that the highest birth rate is in Bucharest, while the lowest are in the regions of SW and SE Romania which are among the most rural. The reason is that lots of young people emigrated from these areas due to lack of economic opportunities in small towns and rural areas, so their kids are now born in Italy and Spain while Bucharest still grows so it keeps and attracts young people, so its population has a healthier age structure.

  21. Well, the flip side is that Arabic and sub-Saharan societies have incredibly high birth rates, with not a lot of either democracy or feminism.

    The West has always had to do a delicate balancing act. The very things that made it successful—large transnational networks, relative trust of strangers, a commitment to the individual, a rejection of clannishness—created a liberal (small l) society, which also tended to increase intelligence and make it rich. However wealth and intelligence also tend to lead to atheism (at least marginally), and feminism tends to sink the birth rate. And trust of strangers leads to incredibly foolish things like inviting millions of illiterates into your country and proclaiming that they’re your strength.

    If there is a nation that will survive this woke monstrosity, it will be meaner and nastier than what we’ve been accustomed to in North America and Europe the last two centuries, if only to fight off globohomo capital as well as the hordes of what we used to call the Third World. The Future lives of men who want to be free will likely revert to nasty, brutish, and short, as they’ll constantly have to fight for that freedom.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @John Milton’s Ghost


    Why worry. If the population decreases to a comfortable level then fertility rates will rise to compensate.
     
    I completely get the supply & demand aspect. That would work fine in isolation. However, as the Sailer's world's scariest graph ought to warn us about, it's pretty hard to avoid the high fertility countries burying the low fertility ones, as nice as the latter are oops, were.

    This goes very much along the lines of the old 1970s Malthusians/Club of Rome folks (not all wrong) telling Americans to cut back drastically on having children or America would be swamped by all their White kids. Other groups didn't feel any compunction to listen to the Club of Rome, though...
    , @Achmed E. Newman
    @John Milton’s Ghost

    Just as an example, if Japan could live in isolation, I see it as a good thing for them that their population has been declining. I mean, for an American, 150 million people in an area just smaller than California is CROWDED.

    Sure, they have an old people bubble, that they can deal with that - in the long run 50 or 100 million Japanese people living nice lives in Japan would work pretty well. BTW, last I checked, total population was down by 1 or 2 % - it's not the set of Omega Man.

  22. Steve, your numbers for South Korea are old.

    The numbers for 2020 are 0.84 births per woman and for 2021 are projected to be 0.82 births per woman. This means that in 7 generations South Korea’s cohort size would be just 0.2% of what it is now.

    Here are some figures to look at:
    https://twitter.com/BirthGauge/status/1408530957708189702/photo/1

    Fertility rates are far below replacement in nearly every developed country.

    The left is feeling victorious, sensing that it is ultimately triumphing at the end of history. However, GNON is flexing with a baseball bat, about to let loose a mighty swing, poised to send civilization itself tumbling backwards.

    The modern left gets to be the group that finally screwed everything up for real, and broke the back of civilization itself. If you collapse the size of the right half of the bell curve, you have well and truly ended and crashed thousands of years progress.

    Ooopsie!

  23. Anon[146] • Disclaimer says:
    @Thomas
    "Democratic" and "democracy" seem to have become general purpose weasel words for "whatever neoliberal globalists want today," or how easily they can manipulate a country's affairs to get what they want. It has nothing to do with actual self-rule by any people. 40%+ of U.S. voters doubting the legitimacy of a questionable election conducted under newly made up rules is an "assault on democracy." Viktor Orban supporting what the Hungarian people voted for and making getting a foothold difficult for Soros-funded foreign degeneracy is "anti-democratic." You'll see a lot clearer these days if you teach yourself to read "democracy" anywhere it appears as "globalist tricks."

    Of course, this has a historical parallel in the Communists' appropriation of "democracy" (see, e.g., the "German Democratic Republic," the "Democratic People's Republic of Korea").

    Replies: @Anon

    It has nothing to do with actual self-rule by any people. 40%+ of U.S. voters doubting the legitimacy of a questionable election conducted under newly made up rules is an “assault on democracy.”

    The MIGA mob reminded me a lot of the MeToo mob during the Kavanaugh hearings. B-B-But I’m UPSET!!!!!! was used as a substitute for an actual logical argument. As Ilana Mercer said, menstrual America vs MIGA America.

    • Replies: @Thomas
    @Anon

    Nobody from the Kavanaugh hearings was imprisoned for a year without trial. That says more than anything else does about who holds the power in this "democracy."

  24. @Thomas

    An important question is which is cause and effect: did the liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility? Or did the low fertility cause the liberalization of South Korean culture?
     
    Related: why did East Asian societies that have been relatively prosperous and Westernized (i.e., South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) face an even more dramatic fertility crash than Europe or North America? If you assume the culprit is "democracy," however conceived, those Asian countries have had a shorter and arguably less thorough experience with it than the West. (Singapore and Hong Kong also aren't democracies.) There's a big difference between 0.98 TFR and 1.3 or 1.4 (what you might find in a country like Italy). Maybe wealth, rather than "democracy," is the culprit, humans not being able to breed in comfortable captivity.

    Replies: @Spangel226, @Spangel226, @Steve Sailer, @Matt Buckalew, @Erik Sieven

    No rural/ suburban Christianity.

  25. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Castlereagh

    I was about to write "I got nuthin'", but then thought about the importation of a replacement population. Feminism can at least be reversed.

    Replies: @Nimrod, @megabar

    Actually, population replacement is precisely what the South Korean government is doing. From Peter Frost’s blog:

    https://evoandproud.blogspot.com/2021/05/damunwha-in-south-korea.html.

    Some 6% of South Korean schoolchildren are born to damunwha, or wives from non-Korean countries. It appears that they are in the process of becoming an underclass in Korea, allegedly due to racism, actually due to lower cognitive potential.

    The future belongs to Best Korea.

    • Replies: @Achmed E. Newman
    @Nimrod

    Nimrod, you bring up a good point about an effect of feminism on immigration, though it is not nearly one of the main factors (which are a desire for cheap labor, a desire for Socialist votes, and, above all that, the use of those desires to change The People, because you hate them).

    I would guess that it is the Moms more than Dads of those 6%ers who are the foreigners. Feminism creates fickle and demanding women, and guys are oft prone to "I don't need this shit." thinking. China was a different case, because that 1-child policy and female abortion really did create a significant enough imbalance of male:female. As spoiled as the Chinese youngsters are getting, I wonder if the young men will go for the SE Oriental women there for another reason, as I suspect the Koreans in your 6% are.

    Still, 6% of the schoolkids means only 3% per parent foreigners involved. Compare that to the 10% of not-even-close-to-your-race foreigners that America and Western Europe has. (I mean England, Sweden, France, and Germany as tops.)

  26. @John Milton’s Ghost
    Well, the flip side is that Arabic and sub-Saharan societies have incredibly high birth rates, with not a lot of either democracy or feminism.

    The West has always had to do a delicate balancing act. The very things that made it successful—large transnational networks, relative trust of strangers, a commitment to the individual, a rejection of clannishness—created a liberal (small l) society, which also tended to increase intelligence and make it rich. However wealth and intelligence also tend to lead to atheism (at least marginally), and feminism tends to sink the birth rate. And trust of strangers leads to incredibly foolish things like inviting millions of illiterates into your country and proclaiming that they’re your strength.

    If there is a nation that will survive this woke monstrosity, it will be meaner and nastier than what we’ve been accustomed to in North America and Europe the last two centuries, if only to fight off globohomo capital as well as the hordes of what we used to call the Third World. The Future lives of men who want to be free will likely revert to nasty, brutish, and short, as they’ll constantly have to fight for that freedom.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman

    Why worry. If the population decreases to a comfortable level then fertility rates will rise to compensate.

    I completely get the supply & demand aspect. That would work fine in isolation. However, as the Sailer’s world’s scariest graph ought to warn us about, it’s pretty hard to avoid the high fertility countries burying the low fertility ones, as nice as the latter are oops, were.

    This goes very much along the lines of the old 1970s Malthusians/Club of Rome folks (not all wrong) telling Americans to cut back drastically on having children or America would be swamped by all their White kids. Other groups didn’t feel any compunction to listen to the Club of Rome, though…

    • Agree: Travis
  27. On the other hand, if the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left.

    They’d still be more populous than slightly larger Iceland is today.

    South Korea is around the same size as Iceland. This to-scale map shows a size comparison of Iceland compared to South Korea. We have positioned the outline of Iceland near the middle of South Korea.

    South Korea’s obesity percentage is the square root of Iceland’s– they have less room!

    https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/compare/south-korea/iceland

    Still on the subject of women’s liberation, from time to time Zippy the President is right, like a stopped clock:

    Biden Tells Andrew Cuomo to Quit Already as Scandal Spirals

    • Replies: @Spect3r
    @Reg Cæsar

    Cuomo is being "forced" to step down... So he will not be judged for all the deaths in the nursery houses.
    Its all a game and you people are the ones applauding it on the sidelines.

    Replies: @anon

  28. @Kaz
    Why worry. If the population decreases to a comfortable level then fertility rates will rise to compensate.

    It's uncomfortable to live as family in Korea.

    Do we really expect a booming population in a tiny island nation where people have to live on top of each other?

    Replies: @DanHessinMD

    “Do we really expect a booming population in a tiny island nation where people have to live on top of each other?”

    If you have ever lived in Korea, you would realize that even in crowded Korea, people choose to live packed far more tightly than they need to be.

    Look at this map:

    Most of Korea is sparse and empty!

    Almost everyone is choosing to live packed tightly into Seoul. You could take away 75% of the land area of Korea and hardly anyone would notice!

    • Agree: Triteleia Laxa
    • Replies: @Gimeiyo
    @DanHessinMD


    Most of Korea is sparse and empty!
     
    Most of Korea is mountains.
    , @Carroll Price
    @DanHessinMD


    Almost everyone is choosing to live packed tightly into Seoul.
     
    Smelling your neighbor's breath lowers the cost of living by cutting down on the need for everyone to buy garlic.
  29. @John Milton’s Ghost
    Well, the flip side is that Arabic and sub-Saharan societies have incredibly high birth rates, with not a lot of either democracy or feminism.

    The West has always had to do a delicate balancing act. The very things that made it successful—large transnational networks, relative trust of strangers, a commitment to the individual, a rejection of clannishness—created a liberal (small l) society, which also tended to increase intelligence and make it rich. However wealth and intelligence also tend to lead to atheism (at least marginally), and feminism tends to sink the birth rate. And trust of strangers leads to incredibly foolish things like inviting millions of illiterates into your country and proclaiming that they’re your strength.

    If there is a nation that will survive this woke monstrosity, it will be meaner and nastier than what we’ve been accustomed to in North America and Europe the last two centuries, if only to fight off globohomo capital as well as the hordes of what we used to call the Third World. The Future lives of men who want to be free will likely revert to nasty, brutish, and short, as they’ll constantly have to fight for that freedom.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman, @Achmed E. Newman

    Just as an example, if Japan could live in isolation, I see it as a good thing for them that their population has been declining. I mean, for an American, 150 million people in an area just smaller than California is CROWDED.

    Sure, they have an old people bubble, that they can deal with that – in the long run 50 or 100 million Japanese people living nice lives in Japan would work pretty well. BTW, last I checked, total population was down by 1 or 2 % – it’s not the set of Omega Man.

  30. Anon[267] • Disclaimer says:
    @Reg Cæsar
    @Castlereagh


    What’s more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

     

    Can you name a single society where the effect of embracing Darwinism was eugenic? Those who "believe in science" were too busy sterilizing others to have children themselves.


    Czech Republic to compensate Roma women for forced sterilizations

    https://knoema.com/atlas/Czech-Republic/Fertility-rate

    Is this effect universal? Does Darwin, like Marx, negate himself in practice?

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Anon

    It’s a race to collapse between the inability of atheists to reproduce themselves and the inability of the religious to pass their superstitions onto their children. So far the atheists have the upper hand, but there’s no guarantee that will continue.

    I recently decided, just for fun, to increase the age range on the online dating site by about five years. The result: four times as many profiles with “praise Jesus, glory to Jesus, I’m looking for a man who values Jesus!” Maybe there was a wave of secularization that was massively more impactful on women who were 32 rather than 27. Or maybe these women just pick and choose whatever moral system they want to believe in depending on what it is they want in the moment. I’m sure many were enlightened wymyn demanding affirmative action jobs five years ago.

    End rant.

    • Replies: @Tonyblah
    @Anon

    You passed the 30 year old barrier. Carousel times over, now need a good man (after scores of losers during her party years). Invocation of Jesus's name is virtue signalling.

  31. An important question is which is cause and effect: did the liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility? Or did the low fertility cause the liberalization of South Korean culture?

    South Korea is not especially liberalised, but it has an especially low TFR. Neither causes either. Both are caused by other factors.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    If you want something done in society, via collective action, then the state is the most common way to do it, but these supports could also be implemented on a smaller scale by charities, clubs, associations, churches, within families, among friends and by employers.

    Affordable homes.

    Lessening of credentialism.

    Improving maternity pay.

    Improving paternity pay.

    Tax incentives.

    Childcare.

    Fertility treatments.

    Obesity reduction.

    Free pregnancy health care.

    Safe streets.

    Safe and free schools.

    I also notice that, despite these low TFRs supposedly meaning that it is "apocalypse now" or even "genocide", the only suggestions which involve personal change are directed at women.

    Yet it seems to me that since women have learned a lot of traditional male virtues, while retaining feminine ones to a reasonable degree, men might make the effort in the opposite direction.

    If it really is to avoid "genocide", surely no man's masculinity is threatened by successfully developing the qualities and virtues which will increase the couple's combined infant raising desires, skills and efforts?

    Replies: @anon, @S. Anonyia

  32. @Castlereagh
    What's more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

    Replies: @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar, @Achmed E. Newman, @anon, @AnotherDad, @Anonymous, @Alden, @Triteleia Laxa

    What’s more catastrophic for a country than feminism?

    Population replacement.

  33. @Steve Sailer
    @Reg Cæsar

    Galton noticed that his cousin Darwin had 10 children but only 9 grandchildren.

    The English upper class was becoming much less fertile in the mid-Victorian era as knowledge of French contraceptive techniques spread quietly behind posh doors.

    Replies: @Reg Cæsar

    Galton noticed that his cousin Darwin had 10 children but only 9 grandchildren.

    How much did inbreeding contribute to this? I knew a Turing-smart farmer (he also cracked code in WW2) who had seven children and six grandchildren. As one of his barren daughters candidly joked, “They didn’t get much return on their investment!”

    Roughly on-topic (e.g., barrenness), Brian S Brown of the National Organization for Marriage just sent this out in an e-mail appeal. The Colorado Court of Appeals ruled, in 303 Creative vs. Elenis, that one can indeed be too smart for one’s good.

    In ruling against her, a divided Colorado Court of Appeal panel agreed that forcing website designers to produce websites that celebrate matters they oppose on religious grounds amounts to compelled speech. However, they went on to say that Colorado has the power to compel such speech!

    Incredibly, it isn’t enough that many other website design firms would happily design wedding websites for same-sex couples (just as there are many other wedding cake bakers that LGBT couples could choose other than Jack Phillips). The state appeals court panel held that this particular website designer should be forced to design and produce the website because of her tremendous skill in her craft. The court found that Lorie Smith’s talents are so unique that her refusal to do so amounted to relegating LGBT customers to an inferior market!

    [emphasis in original]

    Better watch out, Steve. The Biden Administration may draft you!

    (Sorry, no link– it would doxx me, hours after being vaxxed. Here is the NR piece it quotes, though:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/bonkers-tenth-circuit-ruling-against-free-speech/ )

    • Replies: @res
    @Reg Cæsar

    Pro abortion people need to start filing cases like that. Maybe we could see a judge's head explode from the cognitive dissonance.

    , @MEH 0910
    @Reg Cæsar

    The New York Times:


    In Darwin Family, Evidence of Inbreeding's Ill Effects
    By Nicholas Wade
    May 3, 2010

    Charles Darwin, the author of the theory of evolution, may have been right to worry that his children’s health had been affected by the inbreeding in his own family, especially that of his wife, Emma Wedgwood, who was his first cousin.

    A calculation based on first-cousin marriages over four generations of the two dynasties suggests that Darwin’s children had a mild degree of inbreeding, measured by the chance of inheriting the same version of a gene from both parents. Possible consequences of inbreeding can be seen in the children’s illnesses and degree of infertility, three researchers report in the current issue of BioScience.
     

    Darwin, after discovering the lack of vigor in inbred plants, worried that first-cousin marriages like his own might have adverse genetic effects, and that his own children might be affected.

    Tim M. Berra, an author of the new report, is a zoologist at Ohio State University who has a deep interest in Darwin. After reading a recent article about inbreeding in the Hapsburgs, the European royal family that nearly bred itself into extinction, Dr. Berra wondered if Darwin had good reason to be concerned. He wrote to the authors of the Hapsburg report, Gonzalo Alvarez and Francisco C. Ceballos of the University of Santiago de Compostela in Spain, asking if they would apply their computer program to the Darwin-Wedgwood pedigree.

    The degree of inbreeding among Darwin’s children, while not excessive, was enough to increase the risk of recessive diseases — ones that occur if a harmful version of a gene is inherited from both parents. Three of his 10 children died before age 10 — 2 of bacterial diseases. Childhood mortality from bacterial infections is associated with inbreeding.

    So, too, is infertility, and three of Darwin’s children who had long marriages left no children. Dr. Berra and his colleagues concluded that Darwin’s fears of consanguinity’s effect on his children’s health “appear to have been justified.”
     

    Replies: @Alden, @Reg Cæsar

  34. Births to White mothers has fallen 26% since 1990. Also notable that 9% of white babies have a non-white father. 4% of “white births” have a Black father, so the child will actually be Black. This is one reason whites are now a minority of Americans under the age of 18.

    In 1990 there were 60 Million White women under the age of 40. Today just 45 million White females in the US under the age of 40. Millennials having few children and 30% of white millennials in their thirties are still childless.

    • Thanks: Mark G.
    • Replies: @anon
    @Travis

    What is your suggestion to solve this problem?

    Pretty obvious that endless whining in comboxes does nothing.

    Replies: @Travis

    , @Anon
    @Travis


    Also notable that 9% of white babies have a non-white father.
     
    Not notable, since that's lower than every other race's women's outbreeding rate.

    Replies: @Travis

  35. The feminist movement hasn’t actually been that successful in Korea, I think. They’re just in an extremely target rich environment, with pop stars going to jail for drugging, gang raping, and filming women, and left wing “feminist” politicians repeatedly getting exposed for sexual harassment and rape (Ahn Heejung, convicted of rape, was the worst, but the late mayor of Seoul and the mayor of Busan were both chauvinistic scumbags who presented themselves as feminists). And the feminists get massive pushback — not just from young men and conservatives, but also from Leftists frustrated that their favourite politicians keep getting exposed.

    That said, if you compare where they are today vs where they were 20 years ago, they’re certainly much more “liberal” than they were. Prostitution was banned in 2004, for example. But while the magnitude of the change is large, I don’t know how liberal I would say they are today. “Room salon” and that sort of thing are still pretty pervasive (though there have been scandals in recent years so maybe that’s in decline too?) It’s still an extremely macho culture.

  36. @DanHessinMD
    @Kaz

    "Do we really expect a booming population in a tiny island nation where people have to live on top of each other?"

    If you have ever lived in Korea, you would realize that even in crowded Korea, people choose to live packed far more tightly than they need to be.

    Look at this map:
    http://imagedata.cafe24.com/us_c/us_c_41-1.jpg

    Most of Korea is sparse and empty!

    Almost everyone is choosing to live packed tightly into Seoul. You could take away 75% of the land area of Korea and hardly anyone would notice!

    Replies: @Gimeiyo, @Carroll Price

    Most of Korea is sparse and empty!

    Most of Korea is mountains.

  37. @Steve Sailer
    @Thomas

    Density, I imagine. Singapore, for all it's wealth, is a really crowded place.

    Replies: @BernardLMontgomery, @SIMP simp

    Israel is a very crowded country, more crowded today than 25 years ago, and their birthrate increased during that time. Their standard of living significantly improved as well (if measured by gdp per capita). An increasing birthrate went together with increased wealth, increased crowding and – increased education for females. Additionally, they have a very low suicide rate, about a quarter of South Korea’s. I myself do not believe in miracles, even in the Holy Land. So there is another explanation somewhere.

    • Replies: @Fluesterwitz
    @BernardLMontgomery

    There is also the matter of division of labor (pun entirely intended). Orthodox (religious) Jews' copious numbers are enabled by a relatively low per capita income and the willingness of the secular part of Israel to finance the orthodox baby-boom. Also, of course, the generosity of US taxpayers.

    Replies: @BernardLMontgomery

  38. @Travis
    https://twitter.com/JDKnox4/status/1422767045394026503?s=20

    Births to White mothers has fallen 26% since 1990. Also notable that 9% of white babies have a non-white father. 4% of "white births" have a Black father, so the child will actually be Black. This is one reason whites are now a minority of Americans under the age of 18.

    In 1990 there were 60 Million White women under the age of 40. Today just 45 million White females in the US under the age of 40. Millennials having few children and 30% of white millennials in their thirties are still childless.

    Replies: @anon, @Anon

    What is your suggestion to solve this problem?

    Pretty obvious that endless whining in comboxes does nothing.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @anon

    the first step is to identify the problem. The solution is clear, we need to encourage White people to have more kids, instead of encouraging them to have less children. Yet the fertility of whites continues to decline. To reverse the trend we need to reduce immigration and convince more White people to have more children. The majority of Americans do not realize the significant decline in White births over the past 20 years. The decline from 1990 is so significant yet most people are unaware that white births have declined 26% from 1990 , and 1990 was 30% below the white births in 1960.

    in 1990 there were ~45 million white women between the ages 15-40
    in 2020 there are ~30 million white women between the ages 15-40
    in 2050 there will be ~20 million white women between the ages 15-40

  39. @Triteleia Laxa

    An important question is which is cause and effect: did the liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility? Or did the low fertility cause the liberalization of South Korean culture?
     
    South Korea is not especially liberalised, but it has an especially low TFR. Neither causes either. Both are caused by other factors.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    If you want something done in society, via collective action, then the state is the most common way to do it, but these supports could also be implemented on a smaller scale by charities, clubs, associations, churches, within families, among friends and by employers.

    Affordable homes.

    Lessening of credentialism.

    Improving maternity pay.

    Improving paternity pay.

    Tax incentives.

    Childcare.

    Fertility treatments.

    Obesity reduction.

    Free pregnancy health care.

    Safe streets.

    Safe and free schools.

    I also notice that, despite these low TFRs supposedly meaning that it is “apocalypse now” or even “genocide”, the only suggestions which involve personal change are directed at women.

    Yet it seems to me that since women have learned a lot of traditional male virtues, while retaining feminine ones to a reasonable degree, men might make the effort in the opposite direction.

    If it really is to avoid “genocide”, surely no man’s masculinity is threatened by successfully developing the qualities and virtues which will increase the couple’s combined infant raising desires, skills and efforts?

    • Replies: @anon
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Yet it seems to me that since women have learned a lot of traditional male virtues, while retaining feminine ones to a reasonable degree,

    lol @feminist trolling.

    , @S. Anonyia
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Glad you brought up obesity reduction. I’d add to that rising BMI in general. It’s not just that it lowers marriage rates for men and women, who are equally affected...it’s that a lot of overweight and obese women tend to have traumatic pregnancy complications. Naturally they’ll stop at 1 kid even if they wanted more. Also, a lot of normal weight but inactive women become overweight during their first pregnancy, develop complications like gestational diabetes, and subsequently have trouble losing weight after the birth...it’s like a point of no return. Better lifelong fitness and nutrition in general could maybe offset this. Have there even been many advances in obstetric care in the past couple of decades? Seems behind relative to other medical fields.

    However, I am not sure that affordable housing or better benefits/pay will make a huge difference one way or the other. Poor people already have more kids than the middle/upper middle class, as they don’t really care about their status slipping and don’t have much going on in their lives. My millennial cousin with the most children (4) is a loser pothead who plays video games all day and has various PT gig economy jobs. The wealthy also tend to have a fair amount of kids if they manage to get married, because they don’t have to personally fool with them 24/7.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  40. @Reg Cæsar
    @Steve Sailer


    Galton noticed that his cousin Darwin had 10 children but only 9 grandchildren.

     

    How much did inbreeding contribute to this? I knew a Turing-smart farmer (he also cracked code in WW2) who had seven children and six grandchildren. As one of his barren daughters candidly joked, "They didn't get much return on their investment!"


    Roughly on-topic (e.g., barrenness), Brian S Brown of the National Organization for Marriage just sent this out in an e-mail appeal. The Colorado Court of Appeals ruled, in 303 Creative vs. Elenis, that one can indeed be too smart for one's good.


    In ruling against her, a divided Colorado Court of Appeal panel agreed that forcing website designers to produce websites that celebrate matters they oppose on religious grounds amounts to compelled speech. However, they went on to say that Colorado has the power to compel such speech!


    Incredibly, it isn’t enough that many other website design firms would happily design wedding websites for same-sex couples (just as there are many other wedding cake bakers that LGBT couples could choose other than Jack Phillips). The state appeals court panel held that this particular website designer should be forced to design and produce the website because of her tremendous skill in her craft. The court found that Lorie Smith’s talents are so unique that her refusal to do so amounted to relegating LGBT customers to an inferior market!

    [emphasis in original]
     

    Better watch out, Steve. The Biden Administration may draft you!

    (Sorry, no link-- it would doxx me, hours after being vaxxed. Here is the NR piece it quotes, though:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/bonkers-tenth-circuit-ruling-against-free-speech/ )

    Replies: @res, @MEH 0910

    Pro abortion people need to start filing cases like that. Maybe we could see a judge’s head explode from the cognitive dissonance.

  41. @Colin Wright
    @Anon

    'There are not enough Black Men to give the women strong children'

    Don't be disgusting.

    Replies: @fish

    Don’t be Tiny Duck….

  42. @Anon
    @Thomas


    It has nothing to do with actual self-rule by any people. 40%+ of U.S. voters doubting the legitimacy of a questionable election conducted under newly made up rules is an “assault on democracy.”
     
    The MIGA mob reminded me a lot of the MeToo mob during the Kavanaugh hearings. B-B-But I'm UPSET!!!!!! was used as a substitute for an actual logical argument. As Ilana Mercer said, menstrual America vs MIGA America.

    Replies: @Thomas

    Nobody from the Kavanaugh hearings was imprisoned for a year without trial. That says more than anything else does about who holds the power in this “democracy.”

    • Agree: bomag
  43. @Spangel226
    @Thomas

    The fertility rates of Qatar, UAE and Bahrain are all less than replacement as well. The uae is as low as a typical European country. Those countries are rich but aren’t culturally bastions of progressivism.

    I’ve observed that the biggest contributor to low fertility is a decline in marriage rate. The second biggest contributor is that so few have large families. In the 1950s, families with 5 or more kids were not rare. Now I never see them. A society needs a substantial fraction of the populace having huge families to compensate for all those individuals who have no kids. This has been the case for centuries.

    As for the decline in marriage rate, I’m not sure what the real driver is here. Lack of economic need for husbands on part of women? Lack of physical need for women on part of men because of porn?

    Ultimately, it seems that people forgo additional children or having children at all because there are so many other compelling diversions that can occupy ones time. Leisure is so alluring these days and children eat that up, no matter how much money. Even amongst the very wealthy, so many choose to have only a couple of kids because no matter how much money, kids take a lot of time.

    Replies: @Thomas, @Patrick McNally

    Ultimately, it seems that people forgo additional children or having children at all because there are so many other compelling diversions that can occupy ones time. Leisure is so alluring these days and children eat that up, no matter how much money. Even amongst the very wealthy, so many choose to have only a couple of kids because no matter how much money, kids take a lot of time.

    The consequences of not having children also are delayed and not necessarily all that apparent. By the time people realize they would’ve liked to have a family, it’s generally too late. And the sad and lonely old are, by definition, largely invisible, so the consequences of their choices aren’t communicated widely. In Japan, there’s an industry that specializes in cleaning out apartments where the tenant has died without anyone noticing and has putrefied until the neighbors said something.

    • Replies: @Pericles
    @Thomas


    In Japan, there’s an industry that specializes in cleaning out apartments where the tenant has died without anyone noticing and has putrefied until the neighbors said something.

     

    If you're a childless, unmarried only child (as noted also living in the big, anonymous city) then you run an obvious risk for this sort of low-quality ending.
    , @Moses
    @Thomas

    Older, single and lonely ppl can “rent-a-family” in Japan for meals, birthdays etc.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OURBpPLewoU

  44. @Thomas
    @Spangel226


    Ultimately, it seems that people forgo additional children or having children at all because there are so many other compelling diversions that can occupy ones time. Leisure is so alluring these days and children eat that up, no matter how much money. Even amongst the very wealthy, so many choose to have only a couple of kids because no matter how much money, kids take a lot of time.
     
    The consequences of not having children also are delayed and not necessarily all that apparent. By the time people realize they would've liked to have a family, it's generally too late. And the sad and lonely old are, by definition, largely invisible, so the consequences of their choices aren't communicated widely. In Japan, there's an industry that specializes in cleaning out apartments where the tenant has died without anyone noticing and has putrefied until the neighbors said something.

    Replies: @Pericles, @Moses

    In Japan, there’s an industry that specializes in cleaning out apartments where the tenant has died without anyone noticing and has putrefied until the neighbors said something.

    If you’re a childless, unmarried only child (as noted also living in the big, anonymous city) then you run an obvious risk for this sort of low-quality ending.

  45. Anonymous[988] • Disclaimer says:

    I’d say it’s liberalism (economic begetting social) that is the cause of the falling birthrate rather than the effect, i.e. the opportunity for the newly urban to devote themselves entirely to money-making (and pleasure).

    Social liberalism as a direct attack on institutions and tradition still lacks currency in Korea.

    Rather, as Larkin noted, the pill emerged around 1963, around the same time Koreans were moving en masse from the farm to the city.

    The pill wasn’t widely available yet and families continued to be large, but it was easily obtainable by the late 1980s when Korea had become an industrial/financial economy, the threat of war had subsided, and birth control had become normative. This was when Korean economists first started to predict a demographic collapse.

    The above applies to other countries, of course, but Korea’s moral structures, extraordinarily dependent on shame, have been weakened by anonymous urban living. Plus, while around one-third of the population are Christian, they skew older and won’t be having more kids.

    Interestingly, abortion is also widely practiced in Korea but is still de jure illegal to this day.

  46. @Castlereagh
    What's more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

    Replies: @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar, @Achmed E. Newman, @anon, @AnotherDad, @Anonymous, @Alden, @Triteleia Laxa

    What’s more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

    Minoritarianism and its spawn, immigration.

    Seriously, modernity is a challenge. Lots of people are fascinated to the geegaws of modern life. And yeah–feminism. Women are compliant and when the culture changes to tell them that career and shopping and this and that toy is important, they’ll buy it.

    But here’s the thing:

    If you don’t import people your nation will recover.

    The women whose inclination is toward “children”, will simply outbreed women whose inclination is toward “status”–whether “career” or “enjoying distractions of modern life”.

    Jobs will become more plentiful and higher paid–higher capital inputs, more automation, less drudgery. Housing cheaper. More open space. Less crowding and contention for everything from a spot on the highway to space on beach or a mountain trail. Fewer people makes family formation easier, for those who wish it.

    We’ll get a somewhat altered distribution of genes. And actually it will be pretty nice. Some genetic attributes that worked in the past–variously for either men or women or both–that got women knocked up, without a whole lot of interest/desire for family … will fade. Some attributes which encourage men and especially women to form families and have children, will become more common. The nation–the people who make up the nation–will become more “family oriented”. Like i said “pretty nice”.

    But …

    Your nation only recovers if you can keep minoritarianism/immigrationism out.

    Otherwise you are dispossessed before selection leads to recovery. Minoritarianism is death.

    • Agree: Paul Jolliffe
    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @AnotherDad

    Steve--wanted to say this an excellent post.

    There are a few other big-ass issues looming out there--the AI/automatic revolution and biotech--that could upset the human applecart.

    But there are really two--and only two--really impactful HBD issues:

    1) Protecting your nation/civilization from invasion/immigration--from demographic replacement.

    2) Creating/maintain stable eugenic fertility.


    And like the stone cold math that "immigration is population replacement" and immigrationism--the ideology of immigration; immigration forever--is death for your nation ...

    there's a similar math on the fertility side:

    Some nation/nations will develop a cultural program that continues technological modernity while producing stable/positive eugenic fertility. And those nations will win.

    People should all want it to be their nation. And real "leaders" of a nation should be working to make it their nation.

  47. Anon[190] • Disclaimer says:

    Male Korean actors and members of boy groups are so asexual it’s creepy. This is true to a slightly lesser extent in Japan, where there is a mix of more masculine boy groups and actors, and dickless Korean-style boy groups and actors. Also, anime male characters and the voiceover for them are increasingly not just boyish, but asexual and gay sounding.

    Young male hair styles increasing are combed forward (partially a trick to hide premature balding?) with hair growing over the ears, in a manner that resembles classic short female bobs or pixie cuts.

    Women seem to go crazy over it. I guess they want prepubescent fantasy objects.

    Not all however. There are television shows where busloads of women from urban Japan are taken into the countryside to participate in weekend-long speed dating events with farmers, fishermen, and other work-with-the-hands types. There are also shows for speed dating with members of the Japanese military, but they are not as masculine as you would expect (except for the lesbian ones).

    In general, there is no place for many men in Japanese society with the breakdown of lifetime employment from companies, replaced by part-time jobs and outplacement employment. Guys just cannot get a stable life established that would attract a woman, so they drift in weird, sexless directions. And there are a lot more single mothers than before, and they are lionized as being wonderful and brave, but nobody asks where the hell the father is? He’s just assumed to have evaporated to to have been the bad guy somehow.

  48. Anonymous[328] • Disclaimer says:
    @Castlereagh
    What's more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

    Replies: @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar, @Achmed E. Newman, @anon, @AnotherDad, @Anonymous, @Alden, @Triteleia Laxa

    Third world immigration.

  49. Anonymous[328] • Disclaimer says:

    Way, way back in the 1930s, eminent British geneticist Ronald Fisher declared that “Any nation which habitually uses contraception will eventually extinguish itself”. This statement was made when artificial contraception was only beginning wide spread usage, and was based not on opinion but purely theoretical calculations.

    Perhaps it might be added that any nation which seriously embraces ‘feminism’ will eventually extinguish itself.

  50. @BernardLMontgomery
    @Steve Sailer

    Israel is a very crowded country, more crowded today than 25 years ago, and their birthrate increased during that time. Their standard of living significantly improved as well (if measured by gdp per capita). An increasing birthrate went together with increased wealth, increased crowding and - increased education for females. Additionally, they have a very low suicide rate, about a quarter of South Korea’s. I myself do not believe in miracles, even in the Holy Land. So there is another explanation somewhere.

    Replies: @Fluesterwitz

    There is also the matter of division of labor (pun entirely intended). Orthodox (religious) Jews’ copious numbers are enabled by a relatively low per capita income and the willingness of the secular part of Israel to finance the orthodox baby-boom. Also, of course, the generosity of US taxpayers.

    • Replies: @BernardLMontgomery
    @Fluesterwitz

    The Israeli stats show all segments of their Jewish population increasing their birth rate, including the extremely secular and very highly educated ex-Soviet Jews. The ultra-orthodox rate has slightly decreased. Moreover if births should decline with wealth, the US defense aid should make things move in the other direction, although as it is used for military equipment, I doubt it has much effect. I am thinking of the constant pressure of war. Births rise after wars and the Israelis are always under this pressure. Of course there is no way to prove this. But it is odd that their birth rate increases with increased crowding, increased wealth and increased education.

    Replies: @Alden

  51. @Anon
    @Reg Cæsar

    It's a race to collapse between the inability of atheists to reproduce themselves and the inability of the religious to pass their superstitions onto their children. So far the atheists have the upper hand, but there's no guarantee that will continue.

    I recently decided, just for fun, to increase the age range on the online dating site by about five years. The result: four times as many profiles with "praise Jesus, glory to Jesus, I'm looking for a man who values Jesus!" Maybe there was a wave of secularization that was massively more impactful on women who were 32 rather than 27. Or maybe these women just pick and choose whatever moral system they want to believe in depending on what it is they want in the moment. I'm sure many were enlightened wymyn demanding affirmative action jobs five years ago.

    End rant.

    Replies: @Tonyblah

    You passed the 30 year old barrier. Carousel times over, now need a good man (after scores of losers during her party years). Invocation of Jesus’s name is virtue signalling.

  52. @Thomas

    An important question is which is cause and effect: did the liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility? Or did the low fertility cause the liberalization of South Korean culture?
     
    Related: why did East Asian societies that have been relatively prosperous and Westernized (i.e., South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong) face an even more dramatic fertility crash than Europe or North America? If you assume the culprit is "democracy," however conceived, those Asian countries have had a shorter and arguably less thorough experience with it than the West. (Singapore and Hong Kong also aren't democracies.) There's a big difference between 0.98 TFR and 1.3 or 1.4 (what you might find in a country like Italy). Maybe wealth, rather than "democracy," is the culprit, humans not being able to breed in comfortable captivity.

    Replies: @Spangel226, @Spangel226, @Steve Sailer, @Matt Buckalew, @Erik Sieven

    In non-east Asian countries there is a certain resistance against modernity. People who live in the countryside and have lots of children. Those people lack in East Asian countries.

  53. @Travis
    https://twitter.com/JDKnox4/status/1422767045394026503?s=20

    Births to White mothers has fallen 26% since 1990. Also notable that 9% of white babies have a non-white father. 4% of "white births" have a Black father, so the child will actually be Black. This is one reason whites are now a minority of Americans under the age of 18.

    In 1990 there were 60 Million White women under the age of 40. Today just 45 million White females in the US under the age of 40. Millennials having few children and 30% of white millennials in their thirties are still childless.

    Replies: @anon, @Anon

    Also notable that 9% of white babies have a non-white father.

    Not notable, since that’s lower than every other race’s women’s outbreeding rate.

    • Replies: @Travis
    @Anon

    it is notable because the reported number of "White Births" is off by 10% not because White females have high rates of mating with non-whites.

    Thus the CDC reported White births does not actually count the number of white babies born in the United States. While the Census counts 9% of these children as non-white, because they are mixed raced or counted as Black. This is a significant reason that whites are a minority of the children in America and demonstrates that white fertility is just one reason fr the declining number of white babies.

    This is why the US census announced that minorities were majority of the births in 2012, while the CDC data indicated that "white births" were the majority of births in 2012. The two government agencies count white births differently. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/17/us/whites-account-for-under-half-of-births-in-us.html

  54. They should read the famous book on replacement fertility, ‘Overpopulation in China’ by We Fukem Yung.

  55. Could this mean the LPGA Tour (‘Lee6’ programmed same as Lee5, Lee4… ) becomes interesting again in 25 years?

  56. @Anon
    There are not enough Black Men to give the women strong children

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @Spect3r, @bomag, @SunBakedSuburb

    They also dont have enough prisons to put those babies when they grow up.

    • LOL: Alden
  57. @Yojimbo/Zatoichi
    "An important question is which is cause and effect: did the liberalization of South Korean culture cause the alarmingly low fertility? Or did the low fertility cause the liberalization of South Korean culture?"

    Uh, yes. It's both. Chicken, egg. Both are needed to play a role in a nation's ultimate decline.

    Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain

    Once you emancipate and educate women they prefer smaller family size. Educated people also know that the ecological Holocaust is caused by over-consumption driven by over-population, and know that large families are not what is required in these, End,-times.

    • Replies: @WigWig
    @Mulga Mumblebrain

    They don't know how genetics work though, otherwise they wouldn't ensure that people like them die off, leaving the planet to people who are stupid, irresponsible and don't care about the environment.

  58. @Reg Cæsar

    On the other hand, if the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left.

     

    They'd still be more populous than slightly larger Iceland is today.

    South Korea is around the same size as Iceland. This to-scale map shows a size comparison of Iceland compared to South Korea. We have positioned the outline of Iceland near the middle of South Korea.
     
    South Korea's obesity percentage is the square root of Iceland's-- they have less room!


    https://www.mylifeelsewhere.com/compare/south-korea/iceland

    Still on the subject of women's liberation, from time to time Zippy the President is right, like a stopped clock:

    Biden Tells Andrew Cuomo to Quit Already as Scandal Spirals


    https://kingfeatures.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Zippy-art-2-330x360.jpg

    Replies: @Spect3r

    Cuomo is being “forced” to step down… So he will not be judged for all the deaths in the nursery houses.
    Its all a game and you people are the ones applauding it on the sidelines.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Spect3r

    Cuomo is being “forced” to step down…

    Thus taking him out of the running for the 2024 nomination.

    So he will not be judged for all the deaths in the nursery houses.

    That's just a bonus. Nobody's pushing Gretchen Whitmer, granny-murdering Gov. of Michigan out. Same for the Gov. of New Jersey and the Gov. of Pennsylvania.

    When Nancy Pelosi, Charles Schumer, Bill DeBlasio and the Walking Dead of the White House all tell Cuomo to resign, it's not about teh sex - they all have that on their record - and it's not about killing old people.

    It's about 2024.

    Replies: @Alden, @Spect3r

  59. One of the most neglected and most important aspects of feminism is, at least in all the manifestations we’ve seen so far, its depressing effect on reproduction. We have gone from a society that used to teach most girls in high school about being a mother and “home economics” to one in which virtually nothing is said about motherhood and virtually no encouragement is given toward it. In fact, young women are encouraged to aim for success in college and in graduate school and to compete head-to-head with men in all professions. Regardless of how one thinks about feminism otherwise, isn’t it obvious that it contains the seeds of its own demise? In other words, feminism reduces the importance of motherhood in women’s eyes and often delays it until it becomes biologically difficult and thereby ensures that the percentage of feminists in the following generation will be smaller and that the population will tend relatively to fill up with non- or anti-feminists.

  60. @Anon
    There are not enough Black Men to give the women strong children

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @Spect3r, @bomag, @SunBakedSuburb

    That’s another path to extinction.

  61. @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Yojimbo/Zatoichi

    Once you emancipate and educate women they prefer smaller family size. Educated people also know that the ecological Holocaust is caused by over-consumption driven by over-population, and know that large families are not what is required in these, End,-times.

    Replies: @WigWig

    They don’t know how genetics work though, otherwise they wouldn’t ensure that people like them die off, leaving the planet to people who are stupid, irresponsible and don’t care about the environment.

  62. @Spangel226
    @Thomas

    The fertility rates of Qatar, UAE and Bahrain are all less than replacement as well. The uae is as low as a typical European country. Those countries are rich but aren’t culturally bastions of progressivism.

    I’ve observed that the biggest contributor to low fertility is a decline in marriage rate. The second biggest contributor is that so few have large families. In the 1950s, families with 5 or more kids were not rare. Now I never see them. A society needs a substantial fraction of the populace having huge families to compensate for all those individuals who have no kids. This has been the case for centuries.

    As for the decline in marriage rate, I’m not sure what the real driver is here. Lack of economic need for husbands on part of women? Lack of physical need for women on part of men because of porn?

    Ultimately, it seems that people forgo additional children or having children at all because there are so many other compelling diversions that can occupy ones time. Leisure is so alluring these days and children eat that up, no matter how much money. Even amongst the very wealthy, so many choose to have only a couple of kids because no matter how much money, kids take a lot of time.

    Replies: @Thomas, @Patrick McNally

    There’s a ripple effect which starts out slowly and spreads over time starting from the hottest young women (10s in customary parlance). If these girls are all raised with the idea that they are to marry early and become mothers soon then the effect is to force the most Alpha young males into early marriage and getting off the market. That then clears the way for a new layer of Betas to marry the slightly less attractive women and opens the doors for the Deltas. Carried far enough this can result in a society where by age 30 most of the Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma, Omega, Sigma and even Lambda males have all settled into some type of traditional marriage.

    Turning it the other way, if the young hotties are not trained by parents to seek early marriage and motherhood, then this disincentivizes the Alpha males away from such early marriage. If an Alpha must choose between marrying a 5 or banging a bunch of 10s, which way would you expect him to go? So the Alpha stays on the market longer without marrying. In the process though, he probably does bang a bunch of 5s and 6s just to fill in time. These women who once would have made a natural partner for the typical Delta are now spoiled for that. With the Alphas incentivized to stay on the open market longer, the Betas must follow. Carried on in this way marriage gradually becomes a down-graded option all around.

    • Replies: @Steve Sailer
    @Patrick McNally

    Interesting.

    , @Spangel226
    @Patrick McNally

    How does this explain that the decline in fertility rate in Saudi Arabia follows exactly the same curve as European counties even though no one is allowed to have sex before marriage in Saudi Arabia and that taboo is actively policed by elders?

    Replies: @Patrick McNally

    , @Gabe Ruth
    @Patrick McNally

    Thank you, that's probably the first worthwhile comment I've ever seen using sigma in that way unironically.

    , @Whiskey
    @Patrick McNally

    Excellent insight, and it shows how most here are completely missing the mark.

    TFR is a function of age of the mother at conception. A woman having her first and only designer eugenic baby at age 35 is not going to have another. She just won't. And if by fertility treatment miracles she does, it would likely have significant developmental issues. See Trig Palin.

    Delayed childbirth is reduced fertility. Period. Those groups (like Africans) with high TFR start having kids at age 13 or so. See Karl Malone's baby mama. [Not kidding either].

    Should Western societies be promoting White women to have kids at age 13? Certainly not. But not at age 35 either which is the norm now. Ages 19-22 should be ideal, and the challenge of having enough SMART people as opposed to mere bodies from the Third World swarming is already looming for many organizations, which are starting to panic.

    How practically to get the 10s to marry early? Reduce drastically the status of women, and raise the status of White men. Outside any morality (there generally is none in a lifeboat) this would mean the return of Jim Crow, and various rules to discriminate against female employment and status.

    While unlikely now, a decade or two of consistent and disastrous energy shortages due to Green fantasies and China's desire for everything (and declining working age population*) could mean Elites will do almost anything to keep the lights on. What's the point of being rich, to turn Rose Fitzgerald Kennedy around, if they die of cholera too, because the sewage treatment plants no longer work?

    *We have had since the early 1990s persistent deflation based on A. Cheap energy, B. Massive outsourcing to China and SE Asia to take advantage of a skilled, and very cheap workforce. All nations in that region are experiencing work force decline and not even Nike is going to move production to Africa. Higher energy costs makes even Pacific Ocean shipping expensive, and re-shoring will raise prices even more (there are big taxes on shipping fuel and emissions in both the EU and here already set). Which means massive price shocks rippling all the way through. Davos and the WEF plan for just oligarchs and peons, but the merely rich like Asssistant FBI Directors will have their say too.

    , @AnotherDad
    @Patrick McNally


    There’s a ripple effect which starts out slowly and spreads over time starting from the hottest young women (10s in customary parlance). If these girls are all raised with the idea that they are to marry early and become mothers soon then the effect is to force the most Alpha young males into early marriage and getting off the market. ...
     
    Patrick, thanks. This is a very interesting comment, outlining some dynamics of the situation at a detail i had not really pondered.

    The general issue of marriage expectation for adulthood and even the specific of peer group, i was fully aware of. (Just this afternoon AnotherChild3 was talking to AnotherMom about how only a couple of her elementary school friends are married.)

    This negative feedback loop of younger couple simply not having peers to go be "young marrieds" with--definitely an issue. Part of the large issue of media/Hollyweird destroying our culture's marriage expectation.

    But you're drilled into a specific interesting dynamic of how the market functions, and how attractive women forgoing early/prime-age marriage basically craters it.

  63. @Patrick McNally
    @Spangel226

    There's a ripple effect which starts out slowly and spreads over time starting from the hottest young women (10s in customary parlance). If these girls are all raised with the idea that they are to marry early and become mothers soon then the effect is to force the most Alpha young males into early marriage and getting off the market. That then clears the way for a new layer of Betas to marry the slightly less attractive women and opens the doors for the Deltas. Carried far enough this can result in a society where by age 30 most of the Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma, Omega, Sigma and even Lambda males have all settled into some type of traditional marriage.

    Turning it the other way, if the young hotties are not trained by parents to seek early marriage and motherhood, then this disincentivizes the Alpha males away from such early marriage. If an Alpha must choose between marrying a 5 or banging a bunch of 10s, which way would you expect him to go? So the Alpha stays on the market longer without marrying. In the process though, he probably does bang a bunch of 5s and 6s just to fill in time. These women who once would have made a natural partner for the typical Delta are now spoiled for that. With the Alphas incentivized to stay on the open market longer, the Betas must follow. Carried on in this way marriage gradually becomes a down-graded option all around.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Spangel226, @Gabe Ruth, @Whiskey, @AnotherDad

    Interesting.

  64. “[I]f the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left.”

    Huh? You’re saying that .98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98 < .01, but that's not true. In fact, .98^7 = .868. How many generations n will it take for .98^n < .01 ?
    Given .98^n <.01, n log(.98) = log(.98^n) < log(.01) = -2, so n = -2/log(.98) = 227.9. So not until the 228th generation is the population less than 1% of the population of the original generation. Figuring 25 years per generation, this will take 228*25=5700 years, that is, until the year 2021 + 5700 = 7721 A.D. Check my arithmetic.

    • LOL: Paul Jolliffe
    • Replies: @Alden
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    Congratulations on whatever you did.

    , @Gimeiyo
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    0.98 per women is way below replacement because each woman would need to produce a little over two children to keep the population steady. The approximation would be more like (0.98/2)^7 = 0.6%. Of course, there's lag, since generations overlap, so that's a bit of an underestimate. Order of magnitude, though, Korea's TFR is catastrophic.

    , @David
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    It's 0.98 per woman. Assuming women make up half the population, it means the population halves with each generation. It's not just 2% less with each generation.

    , @kaganovitch
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    You do know that humans don't reproduce asexually?

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    , @Anonymous
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    Your mistake is assuming that 0.98 children per woman leads to a 2% reduction in population per generation.
    Each woman has to produce at least two children (in practice an average of 2.1 children)
    just to maintain the same population size.
    If you have a village with a 1000 women you will also have 1000 men.
    If the thousand women produce 980 children between them then the population of the next generation has reduced to 49% of the original size.
    The next generation will only have 490 women, who in turn 480 children but only half of those children will be female.

    , @Jarl Ragnar
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    Your error is assuming a 0.98 fertility rate results in a next generation 98% of the size of the previous generation. It is instead 49% of the size. The calculation is 0.49^7 = 0.006782, or less than 1%.

    , @D. K.
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    Zero Population Growth, absent migration, occurs at a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of approximately 2.1. So, a TFR of only .98, absent migration, and with all other things remaining equal, means that the next generation shrinks by approximately 53%. After seven generations at a TFR of .98, absent migration, and with all other things remaining equal, that population will have shrunk to barely one-half of one percent of the preexisting population-- or, to barely one percent of the current generation, with its TFR of .98.

    The C.I.A., however, gives an estimated South Korean TFR of 1.09, rather than .98:

    https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison

    , @Patrick McNally
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    For what you're trying you need to use 0.49 not 0.98. If 50 hetero-couples form a neighborhood block and the females are reproducing at a rate of 0.98 then this will mean 50*(o.98) = 49 babies being produced by the neighborhood block of 100 people.

    , @Intelligent Dasein
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    Ah, you've got to love Sailer and his "high IQ" commenters.

    You win the daily IYI award. Congratulations, the competition around here is pretty stiff.

  65. @Castlereagh
    What's more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

    Replies: @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar, @Achmed E. Newman, @anon, @AnotherDad, @Anonymous, @Alden, @Triteleia Laxa

    Here’s a few things more detrimental than feminism. Islam Judaism Israelism communism environmentalism covid hoaxism liberalism negroism especially black male felonism.

    Feminism’s just one of the many destructive isms. And it was a creation of the Ford and Rockefeller Foundations. To suddenly increase the available work force by about one third. And raise prices to the amount only 2 income families could afford. Basically a conservative capitalist employer standard policy to drive down wages by increasing the work force .

    Just think of all the great American cities destroyed by negroism and black male felonism. There are worse things than feminism; negroism.

    • Thanks: Achmed E. Newman
  66. Think I’ll pick up a book or watch a YouTube adopting a puppy show. Here we go again. Father’s of 0-2 children, small family size because of the BC pill and other contraception pontificating and harrumphing that other people thousands of miles away should have big families.

    You want big families? Have some babies. And care for and support them. Practice what you preach.

    Given that the Korean government is very very pro capitalist, I’m sure the problem will soon be solved by importing a gazillion low wage immigrants from the most wretched parts of the earth.

  67. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    "[I]f the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left."

    Huh? You're saying that .98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98 < .01, but that's not true. In fact, .98^7 = .868. How many generations n will it take for .98^n < .01 ?
    Given .98^n <.01, n log(.98) = log(.98^n) < log(.01) = -2, so n = -2/log(.98) = 227.9. So not until the 228th generation is the population less than 1% of the population of the original generation. Figuring 25 years per generation, this will take 228*25=5700 years, that is, until the year 2021 + 5700 = 7721 A.D. Check my arithmetic.

    Replies: @Alden, @Gimeiyo, @David, @kaganovitch, @Anonymous, @Jarl Ragnar, @D. K., @Patrick McNally, @Intelligent Dasein

    Congratulations on whatever you did.

  68. @Achmed E. Newman
    @Castlereagh

    I was about to write "I got nuthin'", but then thought about the importation of a replacement population. Feminism can at least be reversed.

    Replies: @Nimrod, @megabar

    > Feminism can at least be reversed.

    My thoughts as well. I rate the damage an insanity produces by how irreversible it is. The transgender issue is possibly a net positive except for those sadly damaged by irresponsible treatment, because it is revealing how nuts our society has become, and its impact is easily reverted.

    Feminism is harder, because society has reorganized itself to expect certain levels of female participation in places that aren’t optimal. It’s also altered genetics of the nation by lowering fertility of the most capable.

    But immigration is the hardest, because it dramatically changes the genetic makeup of the country, and introduced diversity with its accompanying loss of cohesion, which makes it extremely hard to reverse.

    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @megabar



    My thoughts as well. I rate the damage an insanity produces by how irreversible it is.
     
    Good clear analysis megabar.

    It's amazing how many commenters, at a blog for clear thinking, can not seem to wrap their brains around this most obvious point. Go off on some tangent about something utterly unimportant--e.g. aid to Israel--or something that's undesirable but fixable--e.g. government overspending--but don't have focus on this one thing that is the core of your nation/civilization: the people you share it with! Which like mixing salt and pepper is very hard to reverse once done.
  69. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    "[I]f the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left."

    Huh? You're saying that .98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98 < .01, but that's not true. In fact, .98^7 = .868. How many generations n will it take for .98^n < .01 ?
    Given .98^n <.01, n log(.98) = log(.98^n) < log(.01) = -2, so n = -2/log(.98) = 227.9. So not until the 228th generation is the population less than 1% of the population of the original generation. Figuring 25 years per generation, this will take 228*25=5700 years, that is, until the year 2021 + 5700 = 7721 A.D. Check my arithmetic.

    Replies: @Alden, @Gimeiyo, @David, @kaganovitch, @Anonymous, @Jarl Ragnar, @D. K., @Patrick McNally, @Intelligent Dasein

    0.98 per women is way below replacement because each woman would need to produce a little over two children to keep the population steady. The approximation would be more like (0.98/2)^7 = 0.6%. Of course, there’s lag, since generations overlap, so that’s a bit of an underestimate. Order of magnitude, though, Korea’s TFR is catastrophic.

  70. @Patrick McNally
    @Spangel226

    There's a ripple effect which starts out slowly and spreads over time starting from the hottest young women (10s in customary parlance). If these girls are all raised with the idea that they are to marry early and become mothers soon then the effect is to force the most Alpha young males into early marriage and getting off the market. That then clears the way for a new layer of Betas to marry the slightly less attractive women and opens the doors for the Deltas. Carried far enough this can result in a society where by age 30 most of the Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma, Omega, Sigma and even Lambda males have all settled into some type of traditional marriage.

    Turning it the other way, if the young hotties are not trained by parents to seek early marriage and motherhood, then this disincentivizes the Alpha males away from such early marriage. If an Alpha must choose between marrying a 5 or banging a bunch of 10s, which way would you expect him to go? So the Alpha stays on the market longer without marrying. In the process though, he probably does bang a bunch of 5s and 6s just to fill in time. These women who once would have made a natural partner for the typical Delta are now spoiled for that. With the Alphas incentivized to stay on the open market longer, the Betas must follow. Carried on in this way marriage gradually becomes a down-graded option all around.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Spangel226, @Gabe Ruth, @Whiskey, @AnotherDad

    How does this explain that the decline in fertility rate in Saudi Arabia follows exactly the same curve as European counties even though no one is allowed to have sex before marriage in Saudi Arabia and that taboo is actively policed by elders?

    • Replies: @Patrick McNally
    @Spangel226

    That's a worthwhile point to take note of. If I were to summarize my sense of this part of the world it would be that, although liberalism as we understand in the West is certainly not in force there, the behind-doors attitudes of many people (especially women) still are overly enamored by Western influence. Many people have absorbed the sense that the West the ticket to success. That may be naive, but it holds a lot of influence.

    Long before Gorbachev openly declared glasnost and perestroika the sense had permeated all of the upper layers of the Soviet bureaucracy that they were falling irreversibly behind the West. This created a surge in the new generation of Soviet officials who came in with the Gorbachev generation with a readiness to fling their countries open to Western influence. A lot of the results were disastrous and one may honestly how things could have been different if they could have seen the West in 1989 as it was in 2019. East Europe definitely needed some serious changes, but the naive belief in flipping everything over to how the IMF would have wanted it was not always a good decision.

    China was a bit more cautious and maintained a more careful calibrated opening up of its economy, although there was still a lot of naivete there among sections of the Chinese. I think today many Chinese are glad that they didn't go whole hog in the way of Yeltsin. But they still are in many ways playing catch up with the West and trying to copy certain things while becoming more aware of the pitfalls.

    The Middle East did not openly have anything similar, at least not until the Arab Spring (or maybe the Iranian turmoil in 2009). But Western influence has certainly been pervasive there behind the scenes. It's possible that if Boris Yeltsin had produced a booming prosperous Russia in the 1990s then we would have seen a much bigger Arab Spring a lot earlier. Seeing how some attempts to open a country to Western influence has not always worked as intended has surely played some role in alleviating the tendency to openly shift that way. But the overall sense that the West is a model still does influence many women across the Middle East and likely will continue that way for a good while.

    This brings up another distinctive point about Israel. Most commenters here have pointed to the rivalry between Israel and the other Mideast states as a source of compulsion for higher Israeli birth rates. But something else to bear in mind is the scathing contempt for Western Goy which prevails among Israelis. This has the effect that Israelis do not see the West so much as the great model for them to strive to follow. That is not simply reflected in government policy (obviously Saudi policy does not try to duplicate the West as legal structure) but in grassroots ideas. The average Israeli is much more likely to have a contempt for the Western Goy which Netanyahu would keep under wraps. In Saudi Arabia it's likely the opposite: the average Saudi woman is restrained from trying to duplicate Western behavior but is quietly more drawn to it.

    Replies: @Spangel226, @Anonymous, @BernardLMontgomery

  71. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    "[I]f the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left."

    Huh? You're saying that .98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98 < .01, but that's not true. In fact, .98^7 = .868. How many generations n will it take for .98^n < .01 ?
    Given .98^n <.01, n log(.98) = log(.98^n) < log(.01) = -2, so n = -2/log(.98) = 227.9. So not until the 228th generation is the population less than 1% of the population of the original generation. Figuring 25 years per generation, this will take 228*25=5700 years, that is, until the year 2021 + 5700 = 7721 A.D. Check my arithmetic.

    Replies: @Alden, @Gimeiyo, @David, @kaganovitch, @Anonymous, @Jarl Ragnar, @D. K., @Patrick McNally, @Intelligent Dasein

    It’s 0.98 per woman. Assuming women make up half the population, it means the population halves with each generation. It’s not just 2% less with each generation.

  72. @Nimrod
    @Achmed E. Newman

    Actually, population replacement is precisely what the South Korean government is doing. From Peter Frost's blog:

    https://evoandproud.blogspot.com/2021/05/damunwha-in-south-korea.html.

    Some 6% of South Korean schoolchildren are born to damunwha, or wives from non-Korean countries. It appears that they are in the process of becoming an underclass in Korea, allegedly due to racism, actually due to lower cognitive potential.

    The future belongs to Best Korea.

    Replies: @Achmed E. Newman

    Nimrod, you bring up a good point about an effect of feminism on immigration, though it is not nearly one of the main factors (which are a desire for cheap labor, a desire for Socialist votes, and, above all that, the use of those desires to change The People, because you hate them).

    I would guess that it is the Moms more than Dads of those 6%ers who are the foreigners. Feminism creates fickle and demanding women, and guys are oft prone to “I don’t need this shit.” thinking. China was a different case, because that 1-child policy and female abortion really did create a significant enough imbalance of male:female. As spoiled as the Chinese youngsters are getting, I wonder if the young men will go for the SE Oriental women there for another reason, as I suspect the Koreans in your 6% are.

    Still, 6% of the schoolkids means only 3% per parent foreigners involved. Compare that to the 10% of not-even-close-to-your-race foreigners that America and Western Europe has. (I mean England, Sweden, France, and Germany as tops.)

  73. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    "[I]f the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left."

    Huh? You're saying that .98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98 < .01, but that's not true. In fact, .98^7 = .868. How many generations n will it take for .98^n < .01 ?
    Given .98^n <.01, n log(.98) = log(.98^n) < log(.01) = -2, so n = -2/log(.98) = 227.9. So not until the 228th generation is the population less than 1% of the population of the original generation. Figuring 25 years per generation, this will take 228*25=5700 years, that is, until the year 2021 + 5700 = 7721 A.D. Check my arithmetic.

    Replies: @Alden, @Gimeiyo, @David, @kaganovitch, @Anonymous, @Jarl Ragnar, @D. K., @Patrick McNally, @Intelligent Dasein

    You do know that humans don’t reproduce asexually?

    • LOL: AnotherDad
    • Replies: @AnotherDad
    @kaganovitch


    You do know that humans don’t reproduce asexually?
     
    Classic. Well done kaganovitch.


    Weirdly though, that's not just his mistake, but is essentially our modern mistake as well.

    Men and women are complimentary and have to "get together" to both be complete and make society function. Men, and especially women--listening to "you go girl" media and Hollyweird cheerleading--seem utterly oblivious to that.

    Hint: no, actually, you are insignificant. But as part of a family, a nation, civilization ... your life can have context and meaning.
  74. @Castlereagh
    What's more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?

    Replies: @JMcG, @Reg Cæsar, @Achmed E. Newman, @anon, @AnotherDad, @Anonymous, @Alden, @Triteleia Laxa

    If feminism is the cause of the “apocalypse”, and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn’t you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    • Troll: AnotherDad
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Triteleia Laxa

    That doesn't make any sense. You're effectively advising that, on, say, a ship which has been stripped of anti-fire protections and equipment, furniture should be clearly labeled as fire extinguishers. Adopting virtues doesn't effect the physically impossible. If men adopt feminine virtues they still cannot give birth. If women -- actually, I'm not even sure what women claiming to have anything to do with masculinity would accomplish. Whine less at work? If anything they'd whine more often. You never get to upper body strength or a concept of shame, but also there's self-defeat.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @anon
    @Triteleia Laxa

    If feminism is the cause of the “apocalypse”, and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn’t you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    False premise, false conclusion.

    There's this thing called "biology"...

    Lol @ feminist trolling.

    , @anon
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Women badly impersonating men and men badly impersonating women are not the secrets to civilizational success.

    , @Mehen
    @Triteleia Laxa



    If feminism is the cause of the “apocalypse”, and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues,
     
    This is only partly correct regarding the nature of feminism. It is also the case that feminism is characterized by the dissolving of typically “patriarchal” restrictions on the excesses of women’s innate desires.

    Borderline Personality Disorder could be considered the apotheosis of feral female nature, for instance.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @AnotherDad
    @Triteleia Laxa


    If feminism is the cause of the “apocalypse”, and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn’t you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?
     
    Reboot. (And this time have your eyes open and pay attention when you're going through high school.)

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Anon
    @Triteleia Laxa


    feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues
     
    But it isn't. Just look at the Army. They demanded entrance on the basis that WE ARE AS STRONG AS ANY MAN and of course immediately entry requirements for women were set at less than what men were held to.

    This isn't to say they all want a pussy pass. Some of the careergals really do adopt the same dedication to their jobs as men in their industries. But the inversion is rarely complete. Successful businesswomen are much less likely than their male counterparts to be attracted to potential mates with less career success than themselves, making the businesswoman/stay-at-home dad pairing of the theory less tenable.

    There's a parallel to the transgenders. Their adoption of femininity is selective(or artificial, to put it less charitably): focused heavily on looks, hair, makeup, nails, etc. It rarely shows itself in motherly instinct.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  75. Anonymous[100] • Disclaimer says:
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    "[I]f the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left."

    Huh? You're saying that .98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98 < .01, but that's not true. In fact, .98^7 = .868. How many generations n will it take for .98^n < .01 ?
    Given .98^n <.01, n log(.98) = log(.98^n) < log(.01) = -2, so n = -2/log(.98) = 227.9. So not until the 228th generation is the population less than 1% of the population of the original generation. Figuring 25 years per generation, this will take 228*25=5700 years, that is, until the year 2021 + 5700 = 7721 A.D. Check my arithmetic.

    Replies: @Alden, @Gimeiyo, @David, @kaganovitch, @Anonymous, @Jarl Ragnar, @D. K., @Patrick McNally, @Intelligent Dasein

    Your mistake is assuming that 0.98 children per woman leads to a 2% reduction in population per generation.
    Each woman has to produce at least two children (in practice an average of 2.1 children)
    just to maintain the same population size.
    If you have a village with a 1000 women you will also have 1000 men.
    If the thousand women produce 980 children between them then the population of the next generation has reduced to 49% of the original size.
    The next generation will only have 490 women, who in turn 480 children but only half of those children will be female.

  76. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    "[I]f the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left."

    Huh? You're saying that .98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98 < .01, but that's not true. In fact, .98^7 = .868. How many generations n will it take for .98^n < .01 ?
    Given .98^n <.01, n log(.98) = log(.98^n) < log(.01) = -2, so n = -2/log(.98) = 227.9. So not until the 228th generation is the population less than 1% of the population of the original generation. Figuring 25 years per generation, this will take 228*25=5700 years, that is, until the year 2021 + 5700 = 7721 A.D. Check my arithmetic.

    Replies: @Alden, @Gimeiyo, @David, @kaganovitch, @Anonymous, @Jarl Ragnar, @D. K., @Patrick McNally, @Intelligent Dasein

    Your error is assuming a 0.98 fertility rate results in a next generation 98% of the size of the previous generation. It is instead 49% of the size. The calculation is 0.49^7 = 0.006782, or less than 1%.

  77. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Castlereagh

    If feminism is the cause of the "apocalypse", and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn't you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    Replies: @J.Ross, @anon, @anon, @Mehen, @AnotherDad, @Anon

    That doesn’t make any sense. You’re effectively advising that, on, say, a ship which has been stripped of anti-fire protections and equipment, furniture should be clearly labeled as fire extinguishers. Adopting virtues doesn’t effect the physically impossible. If men adopt feminine virtues they still cannot give birth. If women — actually, I’m not even sure what women claiming to have anything to do with masculinity would accomplish. Whine less at work? If anything they’d whine more often. You never get to upper body strength or a concept of shame, but also there’s self-defeat.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @J.Ross

    If women trading some of their traditional female virtues for traditional male virtues has caused couples to have fewer children, then men meeting them halfway would increase the birthrate.

    Once class, ethnicity and sexuality are controlled for, I bet that men who are compassionate, empathetic and nurturing, have more children than men who are not.

  78. @Patrick McNally
    @Spangel226

    There's a ripple effect which starts out slowly and spreads over time starting from the hottest young women (10s in customary parlance). If these girls are all raised with the idea that they are to marry early and become mothers soon then the effect is to force the most Alpha young males into early marriage and getting off the market. That then clears the way for a new layer of Betas to marry the slightly less attractive women and opens the doors for the Deltas. Carried far enough this can result in a society where by age 30 most of the Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma, Omega, Sigma and even Lambda males have all settled into some type of traditional marriage.

    Turning it the other way, if the young hotties are not trained by parents to seek early marriage and motherhood, then this disincentivizes the Alpha males away from such early marriage. If an Alpha must choose between marrying a 5 or banging a bunch of 10s, which way would you expect him to go? So the Alpha stays on the market longer without marrying. In the process though, he probably does bang a bunch of 5s and 6s just to fill in time. These women who once would have made a natural partner for the typical Delta are now spoiled for that. With the Alphas incentivized to stay on the open market longer, the Betas must follow. Carried on in this way marriage gradually becomes a down-graded option all around.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Spangel226, @Gabe Ruth, @Whiskey, @AnotherDad

    Thank you, that’s probably the first worthwhile comment I’ve ever seen using sigma in that way unironically.

  79. We are starting to see the long-term side effects of the birth control pill, plus the revolution in condomic contraception caused by the AIDS panic.

    When women can avoid having children so that they can make more money outside of the home, then sex becomes superfluous, and the women become more and more like men until they are almost indistinguishable from men.

    And now in terms of the sexual revolution, we have pretty much got up to the final chapter of Animal Farm in which observers find that the pigs have become indistinguishable from men.

    So now we have the situation where the women of Central America are breeding their wombs out so as to provide drones for the vast lands to the north where the supply of working wombs has dried up.

    And the Olympic gold medals for women are being won by ladies with names like Joe, Steve and Igor on their birth certificates.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @Jonathan Mason

    The capitalists especially of the entire food industry janitorial retail and construction don’t hire Central Americans because there are so many of them. Capitalists don’t refuse to hire Americans because there are so few Americans.

    The capitalists hire non White legal and mostly illegal Central Americans because;

    1 They are very cheap compared to Americans.
    2 Their basic expenses are paid for by the taxpayers in the form of housing and welfare for the women and kids. So there’s no incentive to organize labor unions or demand family living wages.
    3 The ferociously enforced 53 year old Law of Affirmative Action that requires capitalists to hire anything but a White American.

    That’s why Americans don’t have kids any more. Especially White Americans as we’re often denied welfare rent subsidies etc because we are White.

    The hypocrisy of the fathers of 0-2 kids constantly advocating other people have large families is weird almost perverse.

    Reminds me of all those pre BC pill childless Catholic priests preaching to their ill paid working class congregations to have large families even if they have to put bunk beds in the living room and live on oatmeal potatoes beans and rice.

    The church got a lot of criticism for that back in the day.

    There are some things about America only Americans who live here know about. One thing is how non White immigration and hiring discrimination against White Americans affect White fertility and family formation.

    People who face ever increasing basic housing costs and a lifetime of employment instability and discrimination are wise not to have children.

  80. @Anon
    @Travis


    Also notable that 9% of white babies have a non-white father.
     
    Not notable, since that's lower than every other race's women's outbreeding rate.

    Replies: @Travis

    it is notable because the reported number of “White Births” is off by 10% not because White females have high rates of mating with non-whites.

    Thus the CDC reported White births does not actually count the number of white babies born in the United States. While the Census counts 9% of these children as non-white, because they are mixed raced or counted as Black. This is a significant reason that whites are a minority of the children in America and demonstrates that white fertility is just one reason fr the declining number of white babies.

    This is why the US census announced that minorities were majority of the births in 2012, while the CDC data indicated that “white births” were the majority of births in 2012. The two government agencies count white births differently. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/17/us/whites-account-for-under-half-of-births-in-us.html

  81. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    "[I]f the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left."

    Huh? You're saying that .98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98 < .01, but that's not true. In fact, .98^7 = .868. How many generations n will it take for .98^n < .01 ?
    Given .98^n <.01, n log(.98) = log(.98^n) < log(.01) = -2, so n = -2/log(.98) = 227.9. So not until the 228th generation is the population less than 1% of the population of the original generation. Figuring 25 years per generation, this will take 228*25=5700 years, that is, until the year 2021 + 5700 = 7721 A.D. Check my arithmetic.

    Replies: @Alden, @Gimeiyo, @David, @kaganovitch, @Anonymous, @Jarl Ragnar, @D. K., @Patrick McNally, @Intelligent Dasein

    Zero Population Growth, absent migration, occurs at a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of approximately 2.1. So, a TFR of only .98, absent migration, and with all other things remaining equal, means that the next generation shrinks by approximately 53%. After seven generations at a TFR of .98, absent migration, and with all other things remaining equal, that population will have shrunk to barely one-half of one percent of the preexisting population– or, to barely one percent of the current generation, with its TFR of .98.

    The C.I.A., however, gives an estimated South Korean TFR of 1.09, rather than .98:

    https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/total-fertility-rate/country-comparison

  82. @Anon
    There are not enough Black Men to give the women strong children

    Replies: @Colin Wright, @Spect3r, @bomag, @SunBakedSuburb

    “not enough Black Men”

    Just think of the possibilities of black/Korean cross-species breeding: a super RTK with the famous black body guided by a Korean brain. This is the solution to the problem of who will protect white men. I would lend a hand but I’m busy generating human-insect hybrids for my trip to Yahweh’s planet.

  83. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    If you want something done in society, via collective action, then the state is the most common way to do it, but these supports could also be implemented on a smaller scale by charities, clubs, associations, churches, within families, among friends and by employers.

    Affordable homes.

    Lessening of credentialism.

    Improving maternity pay.

    Improving paternity pay.

    Tax incentives.

    Childcare.

    Fertility treatments.

    Obesity reduction.

    Free pregnancy health care.

    Safe streets.

    Safe and free schools.

    I also notice that, despite these low TFRs supposedly meaning that it is "apocalypse now" or even "genocide", the only suggestions which involve personal change are directed at women.

    Yet it seems to me that since women have learned a lot of traditional male virtues, while retaining feminine ones to a reasonable degree, men might make the effort in the opposite direction.

    If it really is to avoid "genocide", surely no man's masculinity is threatened by successfully developing the qualities and virtues which will increase the couple's combined infant raising desires, skills and efforts?

    Replies: @anon, @S. Anonyia

    Yet it seems to me that since women have learned a lot of traditional male virtues, while retaining feminine ones to a reasonable degree,

    lol @feminist trolling.

  84. anon[268] • Disclaimer says:
    @Spect3r
    @Reg Cæsar

    Cuomo is being "forced" to step down... So he will not be judged for all the deaths in the nursery houses.
    Its all a game and you people are the ones applauding it on the sidelines.

    Replies: @anon

    Cuomo is being “forced” to step down…

    Thus taking him out of the running for the 2024 nomination.

    So he will not be judged for all the deaths in the nursery houses.

    That’s just a bonus. Nobody’s pushing Gretchen Whitmer, granny-murdering Gov. of Michigan out. Same for the Gov. of New Jersey and the Gov. of Pennsylvania.

    When Nancy Pelosi, Charles Schumer, Bill DeBlasio and the Walking Dead of the White House all tell Cuomo to resign, it’s not about teh sex – they all have that on their record – and it’s not about killing old people.

    It’s about 2024.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @anon

    Very astute. Thank you thank you. Both parties like to pick their presidential candidate quietly a year before the primaries. The primaries are just a media event to entertain the masses. Do you have an opinion as to who the demonrats will or have already picked? . I believe it’s Harris even though she’s not popular. She is tied in with the Feinstein Blum Chinese cabal.

    , @Spect3r
    @anon

    You might be on to something, but do you believe that Cuomo actually had a shot at it?

  85. anon[202] • Disclaimer says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @Castlereagh

    If feminism is the cause of the "apocalypse", and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn't you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    Replies: @J.Ross, @anon, @anon, @Mehen, @AnotherDad, @Anon

    If feminism is the cause of the “apocalypse”, and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn’t you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    False premise, false conclusion.

    There’s this thing called “biology”…

    Lol @ feminist trolling.

  86. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    "[I]f the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left."

    Huh? You're saying that .98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98 < .01, but that's not true. In fact, .98^7 = .868. How many generations n will it take for .98^n < .01 ?
    Given .98^n <.01, n log(.98) = log(.98^n) < log(.01) = -2, so n = -2/log(.98) = 227.9. So not until the 228th generation is the population less than 1% of the population of the original generation. Figuring 25 years per generation, this will take 228*25=5700 years, that is, until the year 2021 + 5700 = 7721 A.D. Check my arithmetic.

    Replies: @Alden, @Gimeiyo, @David, @kaganovitch, @Anonymous, @Jarl Ragnar, @D. K., @Patrick McNally, @Intelligent Dasein

    For what you’re trying you need to use 0.49 not 0.98. If 50 hetero-couples form a neighborhood block and the females are reproducing at a rate of 0.98 then this will mean 50*(o.98) = 49 babies being produced by the neighborhood block of 100 people.

  87. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    If you want something done in society, via collective action, then the state is the most common way to do it, but these supports could also be implemented on a smaller scale by charities, clubs, associations, churches, within families, among friends and by employers.

    Affordable homes.

    Lessening of credentialism.

    Improving maternity pay.

    Improving paternity pay.

    Tax incentives.

    Childcare.

    Fertility treatments.

    Obesity reduction.

    Free pregnancy health care.

    Safe streets.

    Safe and free schools.

    I also notice that, despite these low TFRs supposedly meaning that it is "apocalypse now" or even "genocide", the only suggestions which involve personal change are directed at women.

    Yet it seems to me that since women have learned a lot of traditional male virtues, while retaining feminine ones to a reasonable degree, men might make the effort in the opposite direction.

    If it really is to avoid "genocide", surely no man's masculinity is threatened by successfully developing the qualities and virtues which will increase the couple's combined infant raising desires, skills and efforts?

    Replies: @anon, @S. Anonyia

    Glad you brought up obesity reduction. I’d add to that rising BMI in general. It’s not just that it lowers marriage rates for men and women, who are equally affected…it’s that a lot of overweight and obese women tend to have traumatic pregnancy complications. Naturally they’ll stop at 1 kid even if they wanted more. Also, a lot of normal weight but inactive women become overweight during their first pregnancy, develop complications like gestational diabetes, and subsequently have trouble losing weight after the birth…it’s like a point of no return. Better lifelong fitness and nutrition in general could maybe offset this. Have there even been many advances in obstetric care in the past couple of decades? Seems behind relative to other medical fields.

    However, I am not sure that affordable housing or better benefits/pay will make a huge difference one way or the other. Poor people already have more kids than the middle/upper middle class, as they don’t really care about their status slipping and don’t have much going on in their lives. My millennial cousin with the most children (4) is a loser pothead who plays video games all day and has various PT gig economy jobs. The wealthy also tend to have a fair amount of kids if they manage to get married, because they don’t have to personally fool with them 24/7.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @S. Anonyia

    I can't imagine that paying people to have children, in whatever form those payments take, would not increase TFR over what it would otherwise be.

    Also, by affordable housing, I am thinking of mostly urban professionals who leave college in debt, can't get a mortgage, and, therefore, can't easily create even minimal security for starting a family.

    Thank you for your detailed explanation on obesity as it relates to fertility. Obesity is such a "big" topic, and is a social phenomenon that is both new and affects people every moment of every day. It is no less a transformation of obese people's lives than many serious disabilities are.

    Replies: @anon

  88. @Reg Cæsar
    @Steve Sailer


    Galton noticed that his cousin Darwin had 10 children but only 9 grandchildren.

     

    How much did inbreeding contribute to this? I knew a Turing-smart farmer (he also cracked code in WW2) who had seven children and six grandchildren. As one of his barren daughters candidly joked, "They didn't get much return on their investment!"


    Roughly on-topic (e.g., barrenness), Brian S Brown of the National Organization for Marriage just sent this out in an e-mail appeal. The Colorado Court of Appeals ruled, in 303 Creative vs. Elenis, that one can indeed be too smart for one's good.


    In ruling against her, a divided Colorado Court of Appeal panel agreed that forcing website designers to produce websites that celebrate matters they oppose on religious grounds amounts to compelled speech. However, they went on to say that Colorado has the power to compel such speech!


    Incredibly, it isn’t enough that many other website design firms would happily design wedding websites for same-sex couples (just as there are many other wedding cake bakers that LGBT couples could choose other than Jack Phillips). The state appeals court panel held that this particular website designer should be forced to design and produce the website because of her tremendous skill in her craft. The court found that Lorie Smith’s talents are so unique that her refusal to do so amounted to relegating LGBT customers to an inferior market!

    [emphasis in original]
     

    Better watch out, Steve. The Biden Administration may draft you!

    (Sorry, no link-- it would doxx me, hours after being vaxxed. Here is the NR piece it quotes, though:
    https://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/bonkers-tenth-circuit-ruling-against-free-speech/ )

    Replies: @res, @MEH 0910

    The New York Times:

    In Darwin Family, Evidence of Inbreeding’s Ill Effects
    By Nicholas Wade
    May 3, 2010

    Charles Darwin, the author of the theory of evolution, may have been right to worry that his children’s health had been affected by the inbreeding in his own family, especially that of his wife, Emma Wedgwood, who was his first cousin.

    A calculation based on first-cousin marriages over four generations of the two dynasties suggests that Darwin’s children had a mild degree of inbreeding, measured by the chance of inheriting the same version of a gene from both parents. Possible consequences of inbreeding can be seen in the children’s illnesses and degree of infertility, three researchers report in the current issue of BioScience.

    [MORE]

    Darwin, after discovering the lack of vigor in inbred plants, worried that first-cousin marriages like his own might have adverse genetic effects, and that his own children might be affected.

    Tim M. Berra, an author of the new report, is a zoologist at Ohio State University who has a deep interest in Darwin. After reading a recent article about inbreeding in the Hapsburgs, the European royal family that nearly bred itself into extinction, Dr. Berra wondered if Darwin had good reason to be concerned. He wrote to the authors of the Hapsburg report, Gonzalo Alvarez and Francisco C. Ceballos of the University of Santiago de Compostela in Spain, asking if they would apply their computer program to the Darwin-Wedgwood pedigree.

    The degree of inbreeding among Darwin’s children, while not excessive, was enough to increase the risk of recessive diseases — ones that occur if a harmful version of a gene is inherited from both parents. Three of his 10 children died before age 10 — 2 of bacterial diseases. Childhood mortality from bacterial infections is associated with inbreeding.

    So, too, is infertility, and three of Darwin’s children who had long marriages left no children. Dr. Berra and his colleagues concluded that Darwin’s fears of consanguinity’s effect on his children’s health “appear to have been justified.”

    • Replies: @Alden
    @MEH 0910

    In the 19th century 7 out of 10 children born surviving past age 10 was a higher than usual survival rate. It wasn’t just rampant tuberculosis diphtheria etc. There was also typhoid and cholera from filthy water horse manure all over the streets, chamber pots scrubbed by the same maid of all work or wife who cooked the food.

    The husband of the Queen if England died of typhoid due to sewer pipes leaking into the water pipes. From the royal palace to homes of the wealthy like the Darwins through the middle class to the very poor and homeless; the 19th century home was a mess of filth disease malnutrition and death due to those factors.

    It took Louis Pasteur clean municipal water indoor plumbing properly functioning sewers sanitation in medicine and vaccines to end the horrendous death rate of children.

    1st cousin marriage was illegal in England specifically to avoid in breeding and produce children healthy enough to survive the filth and disease. Darwin’s must have gotten some kind of exemption.

    , @Reg Cæsar
    @MEH 0910


    Tim M. Berra, an author of the new report, is a zoölogist at Ohio State University who has a deep interest in Darwin...

    Dr. Berra and his colleagues concluded that Darwin’s fears of consanguinity’s effect on his children’s health “appear to have been justified.
     
    Imagine what Yogi would have said on the subject, had he been asked.
  89. @Fluesterwitz
    @BernardLMontgomery

    There is also the matter of division of labor (pun entirely intended). Orthodox (religious) Jews' copious numbers are enabled by a relatively low per capita income and the willingness of the secular part of Israel to finance the orthodox baby-boom. Also, of course, the generosity of US taxpayers.

    Replies: @BernardLMontgomery

    The Israeli stats show all segments of their Jewish population increasing their birth rate, including the extremely secular and very highly educated ex-Soviet Jews. The ultra-orthodox rate has slightly decreased. Moreover if births should decline with wealth, the US defense aid should make things move in the other direction, although as it is used for military equipment, I doubt it has much effect. I am thinking of the constant pressure of war. Births rise after wars and the Israelis are always under this pressure. Of course there is no way to prove this. But it is odd that their birth rate increases with increased crowding, increased wealth and increased education.

    • Replies: @Alden
    @BernardLMontgomery

    Israel is a socialist country with very high child welfare. There are hundreds of thousands of families with neither parent working who live very well on the welfare payments of the children.

    Why do you think every illegal alien dishwasher in America making $150 for an 80 - 90 hour week has 3 or 4 kids, a 3 bedroom apartment, a decent car, a kitchen full of food nicely clothed kids with bikes and toys??? His family child and single mother welfare payments.

    Replies: @BernardLMontgomery

  90. But the author of this article (and, disappointingly enough, iSteve readers) seems to have completely forgotten the feminist rape cult that implicated the Prime Minister and numerous powerful figures in South Korea and was connected to a string of bizarre suicides. Seriously, has Megalia been completely memoryholed? What a fucking evil rat who wrote this article; completely ignoring how “feminism” has lead to even more corruption and abuse in South Korea.

    Oh well, as long as it empowers women it must be good!

    • Replies: @Alden
    @Pop Warner

    So you’re in favor of rape. Do you think it should be legalized? You must belong to one of the 2 demographics that commits the majority of rapes in America. Black or Hispanic criminal thug. What are you doing on a White site?

    Replies: @J.Ross

  91. @Jonathan Mason
    We are starting to see the long-term side effects of the birth control pill, plus the revolution in condomic contraception caused by the AIDS panic.

    When women can avoid having children so that they can make more money outside of the home, then sex becomes superfluous, and the women become more and more like men until they are almost indistinguishable from men.

    And now in terms of the sexual revolution, we have pretty much got up to the final chapter of Animal Farm in which observers find that the pigs have become indistinguishable from men.

    So now we have the situation where the women of Central America are breeding their wombs out so as to provide drones for the vast lands to the north where the supply of working wombs has dried up.

    And the Olympic gold medals for women are being won by ladies with names like Joe, Steve and Igor on their birth certificates.

    Replies: @Alden

    The capitalists especially of the entire food industry janitorial retail and construction don’t hire Central Americans because there are so many of them. Capitalists don’t refuse to hire Americans because there are so few Americans.

    The capitalists hire non White legal and mostly illegal Central Americans because;

    1 They are very cheap compared to Americans.
    2 Their basic expenses are paid for by the taxpayers in the form of housing and welfare for the women and kids. So there’s no incentive to organize labor unions or demand family living wages.
    3 The ferociously enforced 53 year old Law of Affirmative Action that requires capitalists to hire anything but a White American.

    That’s why Americans don’t have kids any more. Especially White Americans as we’re often denied welfare rent subsidies etc because we are White.

    The hypocrisy of the fathers of 0-2 kids constantly advocating other people have large families is weird almost perverse.

    Reminds me of all those pre BC pill childless Catholic priests preaching to their ill paid working class congregations to have large families even if they have to put bunk beds in the living room and live on oatmeal potatoes beans and rice.

    The church got a lot of criticism for that back in the day.

    There are some things about America only Americans who live here know about. One thing is how non White immigration and hiring discrimination against White Americans affect White fertility and family formation.

    People who face ever increasing basic housing costs and a lifetime of employment instability and discrimination are wise not to have children.

  92. @MEH 0910
    @Reg Cæsar

    The New York Times:


    In Darwin Family, Evidence of Inbreeding's Ill Effects
    By Nicholas Wade
    May 3, 2010

    Charles Darwin, the author of the theory of evolution, may have been right to worry that his children’s health had been affected by the inbreeding in his own family, especially that of his wife, Emma Wedgwood, who was his first cousin.

    A calculation based on first-cousin marriages over four generations of the two dynasties suggests that Darwin’s children had a mild degree of inbreeding, measured by the chance of inheriting the same version of a gene from both parents. Possible consequences of inbreeding can be seen in the children’s illnesses and degree of infertility, three researchers report in the current issue of BioScience.
     

    Darwin, after discovering the lack of vigor in inbred plants, worried that first-cousin marriages like his own might have adverse genetic effects, and that his own children might be affected.

    Tim M. Berra, an author of the new report, is a zoologist at Ohio State University who has a deep interest in Darwin. After reading a recent article about inbreeding in the Hapsburgs, the European royal family that nearly bred itself into extinction, Dr. Berra wondered if Darwin had good reason to be concerned. He wrote to the authors of the Hapsburg report, Gonzalo Alvarez and Francisco C. Ceballos of the University of Santiago de Compostela in Spain, asking if they would apply their computer program to the Darwin-Wedgwood pedigree.

    The degree of inbreeding among Darwin’s children, while not excessive, was enough to increase the risk of recessive diseases — ones that occur if a harmful version of a gene is inherited from both parents. Three of his 10 children died before age 10 — 2 of bacterial diseases. Childhood mortality from bacterial infections is associated with inbreeding.

    So, too, is infertility, and three of Darwin’s children who had long marriages left no children. Dr. Berra and his colleagues concluded that Darwin’s fears of consanguinity’s effect on his children’s health “appear to have been justified.”
     

    Replies: @Alden, @Reg Cæsar

    In the 19th century 7 out of 10 children born surviving past age 10 was a higher than usual survival rate. It wasn’t just rampant tuberculosis diphtheria etc. There was also typhoid and cholera from filthy water horse manure all over the streets, chamber pots scrubbed by the same maid of all work or wife who cooked the food.

    The husband of the Queen if England died of typhoid due to sewer pipes leaking into the water pipes. From the royal palace to homes of the wealthy like the Darwins through the middle class to the very poor and homeless; the 19th century home was a mess of filth disease malnutrition and death due to those factors.

    It took Louis Pasteur clean municipal water indoor plumbing properly functioning sewers sanitation in medicine and vaccines to end the horrendous death rate of children.

    1st cousin marriage was illegal in England specifically to avoid in breeding and produce children healthy enough to survive the filth and disease. Darwin’s must have gotten some kind of exemption.

  93. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Castlereagh

    If feminism is the cause of the "apocalypse", and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn't you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    Replies: @J.Ross, @anon, @anon, @Mehen, @AnotherDad, @Anon

    Women badly impersonating men and men badly impersonating women are not the secrets to civilizational success.

  94. It has very little or nothing to do with feminism. Essentially, when women cease to believe in a religion or in traditional normalcy, then the birth rates plummet. Females need not be under-educated; all they need to do is to have some kind of faith & then the maternal instinct will kick in.

    In any civilized society based on empty hedonism, instant gratification or ethics that is all about work or extremely about the individual or the collective – you’ll have a decline of a population.

    [MORE]

    All modern countries have a fertility level below replacement, from Iceland to Japan. There are no nig-nogs there, no nig-nog propaganda, and the result is the same.

    It seems that most people cannot accept the fact that females, if they are more than just a man’s slave, don’t want to have more than 1, max 2 children. Many, especially in South Korea & Japan- don’t want a single baby.

    Primitive races and cultures (blacks, Muslims) will have a very high fertility until they are either forcibly stopped/sterilized or they drag down the entire civilized world into dystopia of mass extinction.

    The root problem is following: universally accepted global idea that human beings are equal in potential capabilities and should not be coerced, controlled or anything similar in their breeding patterns.

    So- to have a satisfactory fertility & family life, look to Israel.

    Israeli Jews have TFR beyond replacement level, and they are the only developed nation with that characteristic, an anomaly. But: a) a significant part of it is demographic race with Arabs. Without enemy as that, why would Czechs or Norwegians rise their TFR? b) a big chunk goes to religious- not ultra-Orthodox- Jews/Jewesses, who somehow accept male dominance & traditional lifestyle at home (just- they do not stay confined to home: mothers of 4-5 children have PhD from Harvard in psychology or mom of 3 kids is a pediatrician).

    So, you have to have a national culture where religion, not too restrictive to status of females, does play a role & women are ennobled by their role in the whole fabric of society. Religion should be best thisworldly, with cooking, food, various taboos & family rituals- not theologically or metaphysically too heavy and exacting.

    https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/celebrating-70-extraordinary-women-of-israel/

    Celebrating 70 extraordinary women of Israel
    ………………….

    5. Anita Weisfeld
    ……..
    Together, they have three grown children and nine grandchildren.

    7. Miriam Ballin
    ………
    Miriam spent five years in Australia before moving to Israel with her husband and 5 children.

    13. Shari Mendes
    ………..
    Shari, her husband David and their four children made aliyah in 2003 from New Jersey

    15. Dr. Yael Maizels
    …………
    Proud mother of five, Yael holds a BA in Biology and Jewish History from UPenn and completed her PhD at Hebrew University in Developmental and Cancer Biology.

    You see- all those women are, basically, religious. Just look at their biographies or clothing.

    Liberal-atheist female cohort is in Israel small, very small compared to European & advanced Asian countries. With or without feminism, with or without gays, you have to have:

    1. will to live earthly life

    2. national pride & identity, tribal unity

    3. still normal women, not necessarily super-religious

    • Replies: @Spangel226
    @Bardon Kaldian

    Religiosity clearly helps. It worst it slows the decline in fertility rate. At best it might entirely stop the decline (as it does within some niche fundamentalist communities).

    But while you can take your own family to church, how does one get a modern society to become more religious?

    It doesn’t help that we operate in a world where it’s difficult for a religion to make the claim that it is the literal truth. So why go to church? You can go elsewhere to socialize.

    I do wonder if the reason wealthy countries have low fertility rates because there reaches a point of affluence where instant gratification is easily possible and much more compelling than an alternate use of time. I imagine that a woman living on $400 a year in a hut in africa has to work even to make use of leisure time. She has no tv. No smart phone. What is she to do with spare time? Make jewelry? It is tedious work to gather beads and string them. Dance? How many hours can she do that before being too tired? And besides, if she is seen with time on her hands, then surely her sisters will expect her to take care of their kids. So she ends up doing childcare all the same even if she has no children.

    But at some point more people have the money to buy TVs and smartphones and then fiddling with the smartphone seems way more compelling than having the fourth or fifth or sixth child. The smartphone doesn’t wake you up at night. It doesn’t need potty training. The smartphone isn’t any work at all to enjoy. When we reach that point of affluence where we have access to much consumerism and effortless leisure, then kids are a real drag. Jamaica has only $5500 in gdp per capita, but enough people have TVs and phones so that those black women are only having 2 kids each.

    , @Alden
    @Bardon Kaldian

    So you don’t know that it takes a man and a woman to conceive a baby. Another childless woman less Man of UNZ who doesn’t know how babies are conceived babbling about the fertility of people thousands of miles away. Want more kids in this world? Have some.

  95. @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)
    "[I]f the current number of babies per South Korean woman (0.98 per lifetime) keeps up for seven generations, there will be less than 1% as many as South Koreans left."

    Huh? You're saying that .98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98*.98 < .01, but that's not true. In fact, .98^7 = .868. How many generations n will it take for .98^n < .01 ?
    Given .98^n <.01, n log(.98) = log(.98^n) < log(.01) = -2, so n = -2/log(.98) = 227.9. So not until the 228th generation is the population less than 1% of the population of the original generation. Figuring 25 years per generation, this will take 228*25=5700 years, that is, until the year 2021 + 5700 = 7721 A.D. Check my arithmetic.

    Replies: @Alden, @Gimeiyo, @David, @kaganovitch, @Anonymous, @Jarl Ragnar, @D. K., @Patrick McNally, @Intelligent Dasein

    Ah, you’ve got to love Sailer and his “high IQ” commenters.

    You win the daily IYI award. Congratulations, the competition around here is pretty stiff.

  96. @BernardLMontgomery
    @Fluesterwitz

    The Israeli stats show all segments of their Jewish population increasing their birth rate, including the extremely secular and very highly educated ex-Soviet Jews. The ultra-orthodox rate has slightly decreased. Moreover if births should decline with wealth, the US defense aid should make things move in the other direction, although as it is used for military equipment, I doubt it has much effect. I am thinking of the constant pressure of war. Births rise after wars and the Israelis are always under this pressure. Of course there is no way to prove this. But it is odd that their birth rate increases with increased crowding, increased wealth and increased education.

    Replies: @Alden

    Israel is a socialist country with very high child welfare. There are hundreds of thousands of families with neither parent working who live very well on the welfare payments of the children.

    Why do you think every illegal alien dishwasher in America making $150 for an 80 – 90 hour week has 3 or 4 kids, a 3 bedroom apartment, a decent car, a kitchen full of food nicely clothed kids with bikes and toys??? His family child and single mother welfare payments.

    • Replies: @BernardLMontgomery
    @Alden

    OK. Worth checking. It is all on line

    https://www.btl.gov.il/English%20Homepage/Benefits/Children/Pages/Rates%20of%20child%20allowance.aspx

    The Israelis pay about $40 per child per month until the age of 18. If that is all it takes to raise our American birthrate, I am all for it.

    Singapore has large payments for births, and has barely moved the needle, if at all. https://www.msf.gov.sg/policies/Strong-and-Stable-Families/Supporting-Families/Pages/Baby-Bonus-Scheme.aspx#CDA

    The rates head ever downwards.

    As far as I can tell there have bern instances where industrialized, educated, countries have indeed managed to significantly raise birth rates. The US and western Europe after WW2, Nazi Germany before the WW2, Romania under Communism (temporary) and Israel in the last 20 years. Maybe there are others.

  97. @Spangel226
    @Thomas

    Looking at the fertility rates of various states, we see how little conservative values do for fertility in the face of our modern economic conditions. Yes, the conservative states are more fertile, but not always by much. And their rate of fertility has been collapsing as the years go on. Now even Utah is below replacement-

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_fertility_rate

    In 2021, Saudi Arabia’s fertility rate is 2.2, just barely above replacement. One expects that it will fall below within the decade. Saudi Arabia must be the most extreme possible anti feminist country to still maintain a high standard of living. And still their fertility rate has declined precipitously in the last 20 years and looks like it will continue to do so, even with women having less autonomy than children do in the west.

    The only well off country anywhere to buck the trend is Israel. seems like what we all need is a belief we are the chosen people and the constant and immediate threat of an enemy.

    Replies: @Intelligent Dasein

    I don’t really like to assign causes to phenomena like declining birthrates because the issue has a spiritual component which is only loosely connected to material circumstances; but with that being said, I think the main factor (and this would account for the evil affecting traditional patriarchal as well as Westernized societies) is that too many people are surviving to old age. The genius of the race strives to balance the birthrate against the death-rate, modulo expanding (or contracting) vistas. The birthrate will rise moderately once the overburden of old people are removed, but that obviously will not lead to absolute increases in population size.

  98. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Castlereagh

    If feminism is the cause of the "apocalypse", and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn't you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    Replies: @J.Ross, @anon, @anon, @Mehen, @AnotherDad, @Anon

    If feminism is the cause of the “apocalypse”, and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues,

    This is only partly correct regarding the nature of feminism. It is also the case that feminism is characterized by the dissolving of typically “patriarchal” restrictions on the excesses of women’s innate desires.

    Borderline Personality Disorder could be considered the apotheosis of feral female nature, for instance.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mehen


    Borderline Personality Disorder could be considered the apotheosis of feral female nature, for instance.
     
    Why not just say that you consider it to be that?

    I mean, you would be wrong, because BPD is just as much in your nature too, but at least you wouldn't be so much of a coward.

    This is only partly correct regarding the nature of feminism. It is also the case that feminism is characterized by the dissolving of typically “patriarchal” restrictions on the excesses of women’s innate desires.
     
    Partly, or not, it doesn't matter, as my point is still valid.

    Men make up 99.99% of people who think that feminism is a contributing factor to "white genocide". They do this, if perhaps only partly, because of the point I made previously, yet none will ever suggest the obvious.

    If those white men are so concerned that white people will die out because white couples have too little in the way of traditionally feminine virtues, then why don't they develop it in themselves?

    As for women's innate desires, I think you should first understand your own desires before you claim to know the desires of others.

    Replies: @Mehen

  99. @J.Ross
    @Triteleia Laxa

    That doesn't make any sense. You're effectively advising that, on, say, a ship which has been stripped of anti-fire protections and equipment, furniture should be clearly labeled as fire extinguishers. Adopting virtues doesn't effect the physically impossible. If men adopt feminine virtues they still cannot give birth. If women -- actually, I'm not even sure what women claiming to have anything to do with masculinity would accomplish. Whine less at work? If anything they'd whine more often. You never get to upper body strength or a concept of shame, but also there's self-defeat.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    If women trading some of their traditional female virtues for traditional male virtues has caused couples to have fewer children, then men meeting them halfway would increase the birthrate.

    Once class, ethnicity and sexuality are controlled for, I bet that men who are compassionate, empathetic and nurturing, have more children than men who are not.

  100. @S. Anonyia
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Glad you brought up obesity reduction. I’d add to that rising BMI in general. It’s not just that it lowers marriage rates for men and women, who are equally affected...it’s that a lot of overweight and obese women tend to have traumatic pregnancy complications. Naturally they’ll stop at 1 kid even if they wanted more. Also, a lot of normal weight but inactive women become overweight during their first pregnancy, develop complications like gestational diabetes, and subsequently have trouble losing weight after the birth...it’s like a point of no return. Better lifelong fitness and nutrition in general could maybe offset this. Have there even been many advances in obstetric care in the past couple of decades? Seems behind relative to other medical fields.

    However, I am not sure that affordable housing or better benefits/pay will make a huge difference one way or the other. Poor people already have more kids than the middle/upper middle class, as they don’t really care about their status slipping and don’t have much going on in their lives. My millennial cousin with the most children (4) is a loser pothead who plays video games all day and has various PT gig economy jobs. The wealthy also tend to have a fair amount of kids if they manage to get married, because they don’t have to personally fool with them 24/7.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    I can’t imagine that paying people to have children, in whatever form those payments take, would not increase TFR over what it would otherwise be.

    Also, by affordable housing, I am thinking of mostly urban professionals who leave college in debt, can’t get a mortgage, and, therefore, can’t easily create even minimal security for starting a family.

    Thank you for your detailed explanation on obesity as it relates to fertility. Obesity is such a “big” topic, and is a social phenomenon that is both new and affects people every moment of every day. It is no less a transformation of obese people’s lives than many serious disabilities are.

    • Replies: @anon
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I can’t imagine that paying people to have children, in whatever form those payments take, would not increase TFR over what it would otherwise be.

    Your lack of imagination has been rather obvious for some time.

  101. @Bardon Kaldian
    It has very little or nothing to do with feminism. Essentially, when women cease to believe in a religion or in traditional normalcy, then the birth rates plummet. Females need not be under-educated; all they need to do is to have some kind of faith & then the maternal instinct will kick in.

    In any civilized society based on empty hedonism, instant gratification or ethics that is all about work or extremely about the individual or the collective - you'll have a decline of a population.

    All modern countries have a fertility level below replacement, from Iceland to Japan. There are no nig-nogs there, no nig-nog propaganda, and the result is the same.

    It seems that most people cannot accept the fact that females, if they are more than just a man’s slave, don’t want to have more than 1, max 2 children. Many, especially in South Korea & Japan- don’t want a single baby.

    Primitive races and cultures (blacks, Muslims) will have a very high fertility until they are either forcibly stopped/sterilized or they drag down the entire civilized world into dystopia of mass extinction.

    The root problem is following: universally accepted global idea that human beings are equal in potential capabilities and should not be coerced, controlled or anything similar in their breeding patterns.

    So- to have a satisfactory fertility & family life, look to Israel.

    Israeli Jews have TFR beyond replacement level, and they are the only developed nation with that characteristic, an anomaly. But: a) a significant part of it is demographic race with Arabs. Without enemy as that, why would Czechs or Norwegians rise their TFR? b) a big chunk goes to religious- not ultra-Orthodox- Jews/Jewesses, who somehow accept male dominance & traditional lifestyle at home (just- they do not stay confined to home: mothers of 4-5 children have PhD from Harvard in psychology or mom of 3 kids is a pediatrician).

    So, you have to have a national culture where religion, not too restrictive to status of females, does play a role & women are ennobled by their role in the whole fabric of society. Religion should be best thisworldly, with cooking, food, various taboos & family rituals- not theologically or metaphysically too heavy and exacting.

    https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/celebrating-70-extraordinary-women-of-israel/

    Celebrating 70 extraordinary women of Israel
    ………………….

    5. Anita Weisfeld
    ……..
    Together, they have three grown children and nine grandchildren.

    7. Miriam Ballin
    ………
    Miriam spent five years in Australia before moving to Israel with her husband and 5 children.

    13. Shari Mendes
    ………..
    Shari, her husband David and their four children made aliyah in 2003 from New Jersey

    15. Dr. Yael Maizels
    …………
    Proud mother of five, Yael holds a BA in Biology and Jewish History from UPenn and completed her PhD at Hebrew University in Developmental and Cancer Biology.

    You see- all those women are, basically, religious. Just look at their biographies or clothing.

    Liberal-atheist female cohort is in Israel small, very small compared to European & advanced Asian countries. With or without feminism, with or without gays, you have to have:

    1. will to live earthly life

    2. national pride & identity, tribal unity

    3. still normal women, not necessarily super-religious

    Replies: @Spangel226, @Alden

    Religiosity clearly helps. It worst it slows the decline in fertility rate. At best it might entirely stop the decline (as it does within some niche fundamentalist communities).

    But while you can take your own family to church, how does one get a modern society to become more religious?

    It doesn’t help that we operate in a world where it’s difficult for a religion to make the claim that it is the literal truth. So why go to church? You can go elsewhere to socialize.

    I do wonder if the reason wealthy countries have low fertility rates because there reaches a point of affluence where instant gratification is easily possible and much more compelling than an alternate use of time. I imagine that a woman living on $400 a year in a hut in africa has to work even to make use of leisure time. She has no tv. No smart phone. What is she to do with spare time? Make jewelry? It is tedious work to gather beads and string them. Dance? How many hours can she do that before being too tired? And besides, if she is seen with time on her hands, then surely her sisters will expect her to take care of their kids. So she ends up doing childcare all the same even if she has no children.

    But at some point more people have the money to buy TVs and smartphones and then fiddling with the smartphone seems way more compelling than having the fourth or fifth or sixth child. The smartphone doesn’t wake you up at night. It doesn’t need potty training. The smartphone isn’t any work at all to enjoy. When we reach that point of affluence where we have access to much consumerism and effortless leisure, then kids are a real drag. Jamaica has only $5500 in gdp per capita, but enough people have TVs and phones so that those black women are only having 2 kids each.

  102. @Triteleia Laxa
    @S. Anonyia

    I can't imagine that paying people to have children, in whatever form those payments take, would not increase TFR over what it would otherwise be.

    Also, by affordable housing, I am thinking of mostly urban professionals who leave college in debt, can't get a mortgage, and, therefore, can't easily create even minimal security for starting a family.

    Thank you for your detailed explanation on obesity as it relates to fertility. Obesity is such a "big" topic, and is a social phenomenon that is both new and affects people every moment of every day. It is no less a transformation of obese people's lives than many serious disabilities are.

    Replies: @anon

    I can’t imagine that paying people to have children, in whatever form those payments take, would not increase TFR over what it would otherwise be.

    Your lack of imagination has been rather obvious for some time.

  103. @Alden
    @BernardLMontgomery

    Israel is a socialist country with very high child welfare. There are hundreds of thousands of families with neither parent working who live very well on the welfare payments of the children.

    Why do you think every illegal alien dishwasher in America making $150 for an 80 - 90 hour week has 3 or 4 kids, a 3 bedroom apartment, a decent car, a kitchen full of food nicely clothed kids with bikes and toys??? His family child and single mother welfare payments.

    Replies: @BernardLMontgomery

    OK. Worth checking. It is all on line

    https://www.btl.gov.il/English%20Homepage/Benefits/Children/Pages/Rates%20of%20child%20allowance.aspx

    The Israelis pay about $40 per child per month until the age of 18. If that is all it takes to raise our American birthrate, I am all for it.

    Singapore has large payments for births, and has barely moved the needle, if at all. https://www.msf.gov.sg/policies/Strong-and-Stable-Families/Supporting-Families/Pages/Baby-Bonus-Scheme.aspx#CDA

    The rates head ever downwards.

    As far as I can tell there have bern instances where industrialized, educated, countries have indeed managed to significantly raise birth rates. The US and western Europe after WW2, Nazi Germany before the WW2, Romania under Communism (temporary) and Israel in the last 20 years. Maybe there are others.

  104. @Pop Warner
    But the author of this article (and, disappointingly enough, iSteve readers) seems to have completely forgotten the feminist rape cult that implicated the Prime Minister and numerous powerful figures in South Korea and was connected to a string of bizarre suicides. Seriously, has Megalia been completely memoryholed? What a fucking evil rat who wrote this article; completely ignoring how "feminism" has lead to even more corruption and abuse in South Korea.

    Oh well, as long as it empowers women it must be good!

    Replies: @Alden

    So you’re in favor of rape. Do you think it should be legalized? You must belong to one of the 2 demographics that commits the majority of rapes in America. Black or Hispanic criminal thug. What are you doing on a White site?

    • Troll: Pop Warner
    • Replies: @J.Ross
    @Alden

    >rapinoe
    What about the Bible, or, you know, the Roman way, where the thing to be hated is not some guy getting off but the idea that women are disposable? What if you do whomst've ya wanna but, whoever you touch, you now hold the vomit bowl for, per the rest of your life? What if sex was tied to lifelong commitment?

  105. @Bardon Kaldian
    It has very little or nothing to do with feminism. Essentially, when women cease to believe in a religion or in traditional normalcy, then the birth rates plummet. Females need not be under-educated; all they need to do is to have some kind of faith & then the maternal instinct will kick in.

    In any civilized society based on empty hedonism, instant gratification or ethics that is all about work or extremely about the individual or the collective - you'll have a decline of a population.

    All modern countries have a fertility level below replacement, from Iceland to Japan. There are no nig-nogs there, no nig-nog propaganda, and the result is the same.

    It seems that most people cannot accept the fact that females, if they are more than just a man’s slave, don’t want to have more than 1, max 2 children. Many, especially in South Korea & Japan- don’t want a single baby.

    Primitive races and cultures (blacks, Muslims) will have a very high fertility until they are either forcibly stopped/sterilized or they drag down the entire civilized world into dystopia of mass extinction.

    The root problem is following: universally accepted global idea that human beings are equal in potential capabilities and should not be coerced, controlled or anything similar in their breeding patterns.

    So- to have a satisfactory fertility & family life, look to Israel.

    Israeli Jews have TFR beyond replacement level, and they are the only developed nation with that characteristic, an anomaly. But: a) a significant part of it is demographic race with Arabs. Without enemy as that, why would Czechs or Norwegians rise their TFR? b) a big chunk goes to religious- not ultra-Orthodox- Jews/Jewesses, who somehow accept male dominance & traditional lifestyle at home (just- they do not stay confined to home: mothers of 4-5 children have PhD from Harvard in psychology or mom of 3 kids is a pediatrician).

    So, you have to have a national culture where religion, not too restrictive to status of females, does play a role & women are ennobled by their role in the whole fabric of society. Religion should be best thisworldly, with cooking, food, various taboos & family rituals- not theologically or metaphysically too heavy and exacting.

    https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/celebrating-70-extraordinary-women-of-israel/

    Celebrating 70 extraordinary women of Israel
    ………………….

    5. Anita Weisfeld
    ……..
    Together, they have three grown children and nine grandchildren.

    7. Miriam Ballin
    ………
    Miriam spent five years in Australia before moving to Israel with her husband and 5 children.

    13. Shari Mendes
    ………..
    Shari, her husband David and their four children made aliyah in 2003 from New Jersey

    15. Dr. Yael Maizels
    …………
    Proud mother of five, Yael holds a BA in Biology and Jewish History from UPenn and completed her PhD at Hebrew University in Developmental and Cancer Biology.

    You see- all those women are, basically, religious. Just look at their biographies or clothing.

    Liberal-atheist female cohort is in Israel small, very small compared to European & advanced Asian countries. With or without feminism, with or without gays, you have to have:

    1. will to live earthly life

    2. national pride & identity, tribal unity

    3. still normal women, not necessarily super-religious

    Replies: @Spangel226, @Alden

    So you don’t know that it takes a man and a woman to conceive a baby. Another childless woman less Man of UNZ who doesn’t know how babies are conceived babbling about the fertility of people thousands of miles away. Want more kids in this world? Have some.

  106. @anon
    @Spect3r

    Cuomo is being “forced” to step down…

    Thus taking him out of the running for the 2024 nomination.

    So he will not be judged for all the deaths in the nursery houses.

    That's just a bonus. Nobody's pushing Gretchen Whitmer, granny-murdering Gov. of Michigan out. Same for the Gov. of New Jersey and the Gov. of Pennsylvania.

    When Nancy Pelosi, Charles Schumer, Bill DeBlasio and the Walking Dead of the White House all tell Cuomo to resign, it's not about teh sex - they all have that on their record - and it's not about killing old people.

    It's about 2024.

    Replies: @Alden, @Spect3r

    Very astute. Thank you thank you. Both parties like to pick their presidential candidate quietly a year before the primaries. The primaries are just a media event to entertain the masses. Do you have an opinion as to who the demonrats will or have already picked? . I believe it’s Harris even though she’s not popular. She is tied in with the Feinstein Blum Chinese cabal.

    • Agree: Jonathan Mason
  107. @Patrick McNally
    @Spangel226

    There's a ripple effect which starts out slowly and spreads over time starting from the hottest young women (10s in customary parlance). If these girls are all raised with the idea that they are to marry early and become mothers soon then the effect is to force the most Alpha young males into early marriage and getting off the market. That then clears the way for a new layer of Betas to marry the slightly less attractive women and opens the doors for the Deltas. Carried far enough this can result in a society where by age 30 most of the Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma, Omega, Sigma and even Lambda males have all settled into some type of traditional marriage.

    Turning it the other way, if the young hotties are not trained by parents to seek early marriage and motherhood, then this disincentivizes the Alpha males away from such early marriage. If an Alpha must choose between marrying a 5 or banging a bunch of 10s, which way would you expect him to go? So the Alpha stays on the market longer without marrying. In the process though, he probably does bang a bunch of 5s and 6s just to fill in time. These women who once would have made a natural partner for the typical Delta are now spoiled for that. With the Alphas incentivized to stay on the open market longer, the Betas must follow. Carried on in this way marriage gradually becomes a down-graded option all around.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Spangel226, @Gabe Ruth, @Whiskey, @AnotherDad

    Excellent insight, and it shows how most here are completely missing the mark.

    TFR is a function of age of the mother at conception. A woman having her first and only designer eugenic baby at age 35 is not going to have another. She just won’t. And if by fertility treatment miracles she does, it would likely have significant developmental issues. See Trig Palin.

    Delayed childbirth is reduced fertility. Period. Those groups (like Africans) with high TFR start having kids at age 13 or so. See Karl Malone’s baby mama. [Not kidding either].

    Should Western societies be promoting White women to have kids at age 13? Certainly not. But not at age 35 either which is the norm now. Ages 19-22 should be ideal, and the challenge of having enough SMART people as opposed to mere bodies from the Third World swarming is already looming for many organizations, which are starting to panic.

    How practically to get the 10s to marry early? Reduce drastically the status of women, and raise the status of White men. Outside any morality (there generally is none in a lifeboat) this would mean the return of Jim Crow, and various rules to discriminate against female employment and status.

    While unlikely now, a decade or two of consistent and disastrous energy shortages due to Green fantasies and China’s desire for everything (and declining working age population*) could mean Elites will do almost anything to keep the lights on. What’s the point of being rich, to turn Rose Fitzgerald Kennedy around, if they die of cholera too, because the sewage treatment plants no longer work?

    *We have had since the early 1990s persistent deflation based on A. Cheap energy, B. Massive outsourcing to China and SE Asia to take advantage of a skilled, and very cheap workforce. All nations in that region are experiencing work force decline and not even Nike is going to move production to Africa. Higher energy costs makes even Pacific Ocean shipping expensive, and re-shoring will raise prices even more (there are big taxes on shipping fuel and emissions in both the EU and here already set). Which means massive price shocks rippling all the way through. Davos and the WEF plan for just oligarchs and peons, but the merely rich like Asssistant FBI Directors will have their say too.

    • Thanks: TomSchmidt
  108. @Mehen
    @Triteleia Laxa



    If feminism is the cause of the “apocalypse”, and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues,
     
    This is only partly correct regarding the nature of feminism. It is also the case that feminism is characterized by the dissolving of typically “patriarchal” restrictions on the excesses of women’s innate desires.

    Borderline Personality Disorder could be considered the apotheosis of feral female nature, for instance.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Borderline Personality Disorder could be considered the apotheosis of feral female nature, for instance.

    Why not just say that you consider it to be that?

    I mean, you would be wrong, because BPD is just as much in your nature too, but at least you wouldn’t be so much of a coward.

    This is only partly correct regarding the nature of feminism. It is also the case that feminism is characterized by the dissolving of typically “patriarchal” restrictions on the excesses of women’s innate desires.

    Partly, or not, it doesn’t matter, as my point is still valid.

    Men make up 99.99% of people who think that feminism is a contributing factor to “white genocide”. They do this, if perhaps only partly, because of the point I made previously, yet none will ever suggest the obvious.

    If those white men are so concerned that white people will die out because white couples have too little in the way of traditionally feminine virtues, then why don’t they develop it in themselves?

    As for women’s innate desires, I think you should first understand your own desires before you claim to know the desires of others.

    • Replies: @Mehen
    @Triteleia Laxa


    I mean, you would be wrong, because BPD is just as much in your nature too, but at least you wouldn’t be so much of a coward.
     
    While BPD has been known to occur in males, any reputable clinician will tell you it is vastly over represented in females. You know this.

    And while I may possess the vanishingly small possibility of developing BPD in the future, I am not currently BPD. Please explain how I am a “coward” for expressing my opinion.

    If those white men are so concerned that white people will die out because white couples have too little in the way of traditionally feminine virtues, then why don’t they develop it in themselves?
     
    I am hardly averse to the idea of males and females growing by polishing the rough edges of the gender roles they inherited, but I’m afraid you’ve taken this idea too far, ma’am.


    As for women’s innate desires, I think you should first understand your own desires before you claim to know the desires of others.
     
    What makes you think I don’t understand my own desires? Self-awareness has been a singular focus of mine for at least 20 years. I’m not perfect, but certainly better than your average bear.

    Hit a nerve?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  109. Maybes they can get some American refugees. To do work S Koreans won’t do.

  110. @Alden
    @Pop Warner

    So you’re in favor of rape. Do you think it should be legalized? You must belong to one of the 2 demographics that commits the majority of rapes in America. Black or Hispanic criminal thug. What are you doing on a White site?

    Replies: @J.Ross

    >rapinoe
    What about the Bible, or, you know, the Roman way, where the thing to be hated is not some guy getting off but the idea that women are disposable? What if you do whomst’ve ya wanna but, whoever you touch, you now hold the vomit bowl for, per the rest of your life? What if sex was tied to lifelong commitment?

  111. @Spangel226
    @Patrick McNally

    How does this explain that the decline in fertility rate in Saudi Arabia follows exactly the same curve as European counties even though no one is allowed to have sex before marriage in Saudi Arabia and that taboo is actively policed by elders?

    Replies: @Patrick McNally

    That’s a worthwhile point to take note of. If I were to summarize my sense of this part of the world it would be that, although liberalism as we understand in the West is certainly not in force there, the behind-doors attitudes of many people (especially women) still are overly enamored by Western influence. Many people have absorbed the sense that the West the ticket to success. That may be naive, but it holds a lot of influence.

    Long before Gorbachev openly declared glasnost and perestroika the sense had permeated all of the upper layers of the Soviet bureaucracy that they were falling irreversibly behind the West. This created a surge in the new generation of Soviet officials who came in with the Gorbachev generation with a readiness to fling their countries open to Western influence. A lot of the results were disastrous and one may honestly how things could have been different if they could have seen the West in 1989 as it was in 2019. East Europe definitely needed some serious changes, but the naive belief in flipping everything over to how the IMF would have wanted it was not always a good decision.

    China was a bit more cautious and maintained a more careful calibrated opening up of its economy, although there was still a lot of naivete there among sections of the Chinese. I think today many Chinese are glad that they didn’t go whole hog in the way of Yeltsin. But they still are in many ways playing catch up with the West and trying to copy certain things while becoming more aware of the pitfalls.

    The Middle East did not openly have anything similar, at least not until the Arab Spring (or maybe the Iranian turmoil in 2009). But Western influence has certainly been pervasive there behind the scenes. It’s possible that if Boris Yeltsin had produced a booming prosperous Russia in the 1990s then we would have seen a much bigger Arab Spring a lot earlier. Seeing how some attempts to open a country to Western influence has not always worked as intended has surely played some role in alleviating the tendency to openly shift that way. But the overall sense that the West is a model still does influence many women across the Middle East and likely will continue that way for a good while.

    This brings up another distinctive point about Israel. Most commenters here have pointed to the rivalry between Israel and the other Mideast states as a source of compulsion for higher Israeli birth rates. But something else to bear in mind is the scathing contempt for Western Goy which prevails among Israelis. This has the effect that Israelis do not see the West so much as the great model for them to strive to follow. That is not simply reflected in government policy (obviously Saudi policy does not try to duplicate the West as legal structure) but in grassroots ideas. The average Israeli is much more likely to have a contempt for the Western Goy which Netanyahu would keep under wraps. In Saudi Arabia it’s likely the opposite: the average Saudi woman is restrained from trying to duplicate Western behavior but is quietly more drawn to it.

    • Replies: @Spangel226
    @Patrick McNally

    It is known to be true that Saudi Arabian women hold secret admiration for western culture, particularly the insipid aspects of it since they are not from a sophisticated culture themselves. Those women understand little of postmodern theories, but they like high heels and soap operas.

    But it’s not likely that they are dating alphas or even trying to date alphas since they are not allowed to date, and there is a special police force that goes out and harasses anyone unmarried who appears to be on a date. They also aren’t much in the work force. Some are, but not most and all who are have to get permission from their male guardians to work in the first place.

    So what do these women who aren’t allowed to date or work even do with themselves since they only have 2.2 kids to take care of at this point? It really appears that they spend all their time shopping and watching soap operas while living in their fathers house until someone nags them enough to get married in their mid 20s or increasingly even till their 30s. And then they have the minimum amount of kids.

    And that’s the story of all of the affluent world except Israel. Why have the kid when you could otherwise surf the net, dabble in a DIY hobby, play video games, go out for brunches…? Even if you have nothing else worthwhile to do as Saudi Arabian women don’t. Can still shop and do a manicure every day. Tis enough distraction to avoid an extra kid.

    But

    , @Anonymous
    @Patrick McNally

    The trouble with this analysis is that women have absolutely no power in Saudi Arabia.

    Replies: @Patrick McNally, @sss, @anon

    , @BernardLMontgomery
    @Patrick McNally

    Israeli definitely have not fully absorbed Western norms. Contempt? Maybe. Here are two interesting examples I found in a quick Google search.

    A member of their Parliament flat out, openly, blames the recent Covid outbreak on a gay pride parade, whereas in the US, as our host reminded us, no one will dare draw any conclusions about a Covid outbreak in Providence RI.

    And a current government minister just stated that
    “I think the integration of women into combat field units is a mistake,” ….adding that “the IDF’s role is to defeat the enemy and not to advance social agendas.”

    These things may not even be stated in the US any longer, much less agreed upon.

  112. @Thomas
    @Spangel226


    Ultimately, it seems that people forgo additional children or having children at all because there are so many other compelling diversions that can occupy ones time. Leisure is so alluring these days and children eat that up, no matter how much money. Even amongst the very wealthy, so many choose to have only a couple of kids because no matter how much money, kids take a lot of time.
     
    The consequences of not having children also are delayed and not necessarily all that apparent. By the time people realize they would've liked to have a family, it's generally too late. And the sad and lonely old are, by definition, largely invisible, so the consequences of their choices aren't communicated widely. In Japan, there's an industry that specializes in cleaning out apartments where the tenant has died without anyone noticing and has putrefied until the neighbors said something.

    Replies: @Pericles, @Moses

    Older, single and lonely ppl can “rent-a-family” in Japan for meals, birthdays etc.

  113. @kaganovitch
    @Mark Spahn (West Seneca, NY)

    You do know that humans don't reproduce asexually?

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    You do know that humans don’t reproduce asexually?

    Classic. Well done kaganovitch.

    Weirdly though, that’s not just his mistake, but is essentially our modern mistake as well.

    Men and women are complimentary and have to “get together” to both be complete and make society function. Men, and especially women–listening to “you go girl” media and Hollyweird cheerleading–seem utterly oblivious to that.

    Hint: no, actually, you are insignificant. But as part of a family, a nation, civilization … your life can have context and meaning.

    • Thanks: kaganovitch
  114. @anon
    @Travis

    What is your suggestion to solve this problem?

    Pretty obvious that endless whining in comboxes does nothing.

    Replies: @Travis

    the first step is to identify the problem. The solution is clear, we need to encourage White people to have more kids, instead of encouraging them to have less children. Yet the fertility of whites continues to decline. To reverse the trend we need to reduce immigration and convince more White people to have more children. The majority of Americans do not realize the significant decline in White births over the past 20 years. The decline from 1990 is so significant yet most people are unaware that white births have declined 26% from 1990 , and 1990 was 30% below the white births in 1960.

    in 1990 there were ~45 million white women between the ages 15-40
    in 2020 there are ~30 million white women between the ages 15-40
    in 2050 there will be ~20 million white women between the ages 15-40

  115. @megabar
    @Achmed E. Newman

    > Feminism can at least be reversed.

    My thoughts as well. I rate the damage an insanity produces by how irreversible it is. The transgender issue is possibly a net positive except for those sadly damaged by irresponsible treatment, because it is revealing how nuts our society has become, and its impact is easily reverted.

    Feminism is harder, because society has reorganized itself to expect certain levels of female participation in places that aren't optimal. It's also altered genetics of the nation by lowering fertility of the most capable.

    But immigration is the hardest, because it dramatically changes the genetic makeup of the country, and introduced diversity with its accompanying loss of cohesion, which makes it extremely hard to reverse.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    My thoughts as well. I rate the damage an insanity produces by how irreversible it is.

    Good clear analysis megabar.

    It’s amazing how many commenters, at a blog for clear thinking, can not seem to wrap their brains around this most obvious point. Go off on some tangent about something utterly unimportant–e.g. aid to Israel–or something that’s undesirable but fixable–e.g. government overspending–but don’t have focus on this one thing that is the core of your nation/civilization: the people you share it with! Which like mixing salt and pepper is very hard to reverse once done.

  116. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mehen


    Borderline Personality Disorder could be considered the apotheosis of feral female nature, for instance.
     
    Why not just say that you consider it to be that?

    I mean, you would be wrong, because BPD is just as much in your nature too, but at least you wouldn't be so much of a coward.

    This is only partly correct regarding the nature of feminism. It is also the case that feminism is characterized by the dissolving of typically “patriarchal” restrictions on the excesses of women’s innate desires.
     
    Partly, or not, it doesn't matter, as my point is still valid.

    Men make up 99.99% of people who think that feminism is a contributing factor to "white genocide". They do this, if perhaps only partly, because of the point I made previously, yet none will ever suggest the obvious.

    If those white men are so concerned that white people will die out because white couples have too little in the way of traditionally feminine virtues, then why don't they develop it in themselves?

    As for women's innate desires, I think you should first understand your own desires before you claim to know the desires of others.

    Replies: @Mehen

    I mean, you would be wrong, because BPD is just as much in your nature too, but at least you wouldn’t be so much of a coward.

    While BPD has been known to occur in males, any reputable clinician will tell you it is vastly over represented in females. You know this.

    And while I may possess the vanishingly small possibility of developing BPD in the future, I am not currently BPD. Please explain how I am a “coward” for expressing my opinion.

    If those white men are so concerned that white people will die out because white couples have too little in the way of traditionally feminine virtues, then why don’t they develop it in themselves?

    I am hardly averse to the idea of males and females growing by polishing the rough edges of the gender roles they inherited, but I’m afraid you’ve taken this idea too far, ma’am.

    As for women’s innate desires, I think you should first understand your own desires before you claim to know the desires of others.

    What makes you think I don’t understand my own desires? Self-awareness has been a singular focus of mine for at least 20 years. I’m not perfect, but certainly better than your average bear.

    Hit a nerve?

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mehen


    Please explain how I am a “coward” for expressing my opinion?
     
    You wrote "some people" not "I". Don't be mealy-mouthed.

    I’m afraid you’ve taken this idea too far, ma’am.
     
    I was pointing out hypocrisy as much as I was making a practical suggestion. It worked in 3 directions.

    What makes you think I don’t understand my own desires? Self-awareness has been a singular focus of mine for at least 20 years. I’m not perfect, but certainly better than your average bear.
     
    I'm too tired to look into it right now. You can help me though, ever felt possessed?

    Replies: @Mehen

  117. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Castlereagh

    If feminism is the cause of the "apocalypse", and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn't you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    Replies: @J.Ross, @anon, @anon, @Mehen, @AnotherDad, @Anon

    If feminism is the cause of the “apocalypse”, and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn’t you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    Reboot. (And this time have your eyes open and pay attention when you’re going through high school.)

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @AnotherDad

    I think your obsession with white birth rates is mostly just a thin excuse for your own misogyny. As is the whole "women are this", ""men are that" confused faux empiricism that is really just special pleading.

    Neither of these two discussion points have to be that, nor is "misogyny" the end of it, but it is very clear that both are mostly used by you as disingenuous props for telling women that they must behave like you want them to.

    Maybe I am wrong, but the more I read of your comments and responses the stronger my impression becomes.

    If women don't conform to your expectations of them, perhaps that isn't because of minoritarian brainwashing, but because they would find conforming to your expectations unpleasant? And they find the fact that you have, what they consider to be unpleasant expectations of them, bigoted and unpleasant in itself? You know...Occam's Razor and all.

  118. Anon[116] • Disclaimer says:
    @Triteleia Laxa
    @Castlereagh

    If feminism is the cause of the "apocalypse", and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn't you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    Replies: @J.Ross, @anon, @anon, @Mehen, @AnotherDad, @Anon

    feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues

    But it isn’t. Just look at the Army. They demanded entrance on the basis that WE ARE AS STRONG AS ANY MAN and of course immediately entry requirements for women were set at less than what men were held to.

    This isn’t to say they all want a pussy pass. Some of the careergals really do adopt the same dedication to their jobs as men in their industries. But the inversion is rarely complete. Successful businesswomen are much less likely than their male counterparts to be attracted to potential mates with less career success than themselves, making the businesswoman/stay-at-home dad pairing of the theory less tenable.

    There’s a parallel to the transgenders. Their adoption of femininity is selective(or artificial, to put it less charitably): focused heavily on looks, hair, makeup, nails, etc. It rarely shows itself in motherly instinct.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anon


    Successful businesswomen are much less likely than their male counterparts to be attracted to potential mates with less career success than themselves, making the businesswoman/stay-at-home dad pairing of the theory less tenable.
     
    This observation is the counterpart to the feminist one that men are frequently threatened by their female partner's greater professional success and their fragile egos can't handle it.

    Both, while partly true because people are complicated, are actually just copes because these are not huge hurdles to jump.

    Also, your reply, by ignoring that my comment wasn't absolute, is just you ranting on about a bunch of things that upset you. That's OK, but I can hardly address them, except to say, you'll be OK.

    Replies: @Anon

  119. @DanHessinMD
    @Kaz

    "Do we really expect a booming population in a tiny island nation where people have to live on top of each other?"

    If you have ever lived in Korea, you would realize that even in crowded Korea, people choose to live packed far more tightly than they need to be.

    Look at this map:
    http://imagedata.cafe24.com/us_c/us_c_41-1.jpg

    Most of Korea is sparse and empty!

    Almost everyone is choosing to live packed tightly into Seoul. You could take away 75% of the land area of Korea and hardly anyone would notice!

    Replies: @Gimeiyo, @Carroll Price

    Almost everyone is choosing to live packed tightly into Seoul.

    Smelling your neighbor’s breath lowers the cost of living by cutting down on the need for everyone to buy garlic.

  120. @Patrick McNally
    @Spangel226

    That's a worthwhile point to take note of. If I were to summarize my sense of this part of the world it would be that, although liberalism as we understand in the West is certainly not in force there, the behind-doors attitudes of many people (especially women) still are overly enamored by Western influence. Many people have absorbed the sense that the West the ticket to success. That may be naive, but it holds a lot of influence.

    Long before Gorbachev openly declared glasnost and perestroika the sense had permeated all of the upper layers of the Soviet bureaucracy that they were falling irreversibly behind the West. This created a surge in the new generation of Soviet officials who came in with the Gorbachev generation with a readiness to fling their countries open to Western influence. A lot of the results were disastrous and one may honestly how things could have been different if they could have seen the West in 1989 as it was in 2019. East Europe definitely needed some serious changes, but the naive belief in flipping everything over to how the IMF would have wanted it was not always a good decision.

    China was a bit more cautious and maintained a more careful calibrated opening up of its economy, although there was still a lot of naivete there among sections of the Chinese. I think today many Chinese are glad that they didn't go whole hog in the way of Yeltsin. But they still are in many ways playing catch up with the West and trying to copy certain things while becoming more aware of the pitfalls.

    The Middle East did not openly have anything similar, at least not until the Arab Spring (or maybe the Iranian turmoil in 2009). But Western influence has certainly been pervasive there behind the scenes. It's possible that if Boris Yeltsin had produced a booming prosperous Russia in the 1990s then we would have seen a much bigger Arab Spring a lot earlier. Seeing how some attempts to open a country to Western influence has not always worked as intended has surely played some role in alleviating the tendency to openly shift that way. But the overall sense that the West is a model still does influence many women across the Middle East and likely will continue that way for a good while.

    This brings up another distinctive point about Israel. Most commenters here have pointed to the rivalry between Israel and the other Mideast states as a source of compulsion for higher Israeli birth rates. But something else to bear in mind is the scathing contempt for Western Goy which prevails among Israelis. This has the effect that Israelis do not see the West so much as the great model for them to strive to follow. That is not simply reflected in government policy (obviously Saudi policy does not try to duplicate the West as legal structure) but in grassroots ideas. The average Israeli is much more likely to have a contempt for the Western Goy which Netanyahu would keep under wraps. In Saudi Arabia it's likely the opposite: the average Saudi woman is restrained from trying to duplicate Western behavior but is quietly more drawn to it.

    Replies: @Spangel226, @Anonymous, @BernardLMontgomery

    It is known to be true that Saudi Arabian women hold secret admiration for western culture, particularly the insipid aspects of it since they are not from a sophisticated culture themselves. Those women understand little of postmodern theories, but they like high heels and soap operas.

    But it’s not likely that they are dating alphas or even trying to date alphas since they are not allowed to date, and there is a special police force that goes out and harasses anyone unmarried who appears to be on a date. They also aren’t much in the work force. Some are, but not most and all who are have to get permission from their male guardians to work in the first place.

    So what do these women who aren’t allowed to date or work even do with themselves since they only have 2.2 kids to take care of at this point? It really appears that they spend all their time shopping and watching soap operas while living in their fathers house until someone nags them enough to get married in their mid 20s or increasingly even till their 30s. And then they have the minimum amount of kids.

    And that’s the story of all of the affluent world except Israel. Why have the kid when you could otherwise surf the net, dabble in a DIY hobby, play video games, go out for brunches…? Even if you have nothing else worthwhile to do as Saudi Arabian women don’t. Can still shop and do a manicure every day. Tis enough distraction to avoid an extra kid.

    But

  121. @Mehen
    @Triteleia Laxa


    I mean, you would be wrong, because BPD is just as much in your nature too, but at least you wouldn’t be so much of a coward.
     
    While BPD has been known to occur in males, any reputable clinician will tell you it is vastly over represented in females. You know this.

    And while I may possess the vanishingly small possibility of developing BPD in the future, I am not currently BPD. Please explain how I am a “coward” for expressing my opinion.

    If those white men are so concerned that white people will die out because white couples have too little in the way of traditionally feminine virtues, then why don’t they develop it in themselves?
     
    I am hardly averse to the idea of males and females growing by polishing the rough edges of the gender roles they inherited, but I’m afraid you’ve taken this idea too far, ma’am.


    As for women’s innate desires, I think you should first understand your own desires before you claim to know the desires of others.
     
    What makes you think I don’t understand my own desires? Self-awareness has been a singular focus of mine for at least 20 years. I’m not perfect, but certainly better than your average bear.

    Hit a nerve?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Please explain how I am a “coward” for expressing my opinion?

    You wrote “some people” not “I”. Don’t be mealy-mouthed.

    I’m afraid you’ve taken this idea too far, ma’am.

    I was pointing out hypocrisy as much as I was making a practical suggestion. It worked in 3 directions.

    What makes you think I don’t understand my own desires? Self-awareness has been a singular focus of mine for at least 20 years. I’m not perfect, but certainly better than your average bear.

    I’m too tired to look into it right now. You can help me though, ever felt possessed?

    • Replies: @Mehen
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Triteleia:

    I expressed an opinion about female/male dynamics -- you accused me of being a "coward" -- I asked you to explain your accusation - you did some pilpul, splitting the hairs between my expression of "I" and "other people".

    Can you just relax for a moment? Christ.

    (PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: El Steverino (Sailer) is not particularly tolerant of the nonsense we are engaging in)

    (He is a Very Serious Person)


    I was pointing out hypocrisy as much as I was making a practical suggestion. It worked in 3 directions.
     
    I'm afraid I missed the 3D chess. How does anything you have said have anything to do with my assertion that BPD females are the raw expression of femininity in the wild?

    I’m too tired to look into it right now. You can help me though, ever felt possessed?
     
    Have I ever felt possessed?

    Indeed I have.

    I was -- and still am -- possessed with a burning desire for female beauty.

    I love doe-eyes, luxurious hair, bee-stung lips, and a demure personality.

    I had my experiences but I am "old" now. Beggars can't be choosers.

    At my age I am beginning to make the transition from a superficial appreciation of beauty towards something more holistic. You know, no longer regarding women as sex-toys.

    Can you point in the right direction?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  122. @Patrick McNally
    @Spangel226

    There's a ripple effect which starts out slowly and spreads over time starting from the hottest young women (10s in customary parlance). If these girls are all raised with the idea that they are to marry early and become mothers soon then the effect is to force the most Alpha young males into early marriage and getting off the market. That then clears the way for a new layer of Betas to marry the slightly less attractive women and opens the doors for the Deltas. Carried far enough this can result in a society where by age 30 most of the Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma, Omega, Sigma and even Lambda males have all settled into some type of traditional marriage.

    Turning it the other way, if the young hotties are not trained by parents to seek early marriage and motherhood, then this disincentivizes the Alpha males away from such early marriage. If an Alpha must choose between marrying a 5 or banging a bunch of 10s, which way would you expect him to go? So the Alpha stays on the market longer without marrying. In the process though, he probably does bang a bunch of 5s and 6s just to fill in time. These women who once would have made a natural partner for the typical Delta are now spoiled for that. With the Alphas incentivized to stay on the open market longer, the Betas must follow. Carried on in this way marriage gradually becomes a down-graded option all around.

    Replies: @Steve Sailer, @Spangel226, @Gabe Ruth, @Whiskey, @AnotherDad

    There’s a ripple effect which starts out slowly and spreads over time starting from the hottest young women (10s in customary parlance). If these girls are all raised with the idea that they are to marry early and become mothers soon then the effect is to force the most Alpha young males into early marriage and getting off the market. …

    Patrick, thanks. This is a very interesting comment, outlining some dynamics of the situation at a detail i had not really pondered.

    The general issue of marriage expectation for adulthood and even the specific of peer group, i was fully aware of. (Just this afternoon AnotherChild3 was talking to AnotherMom about how only a couple of her elementary school friends are married.)

    This negative feedback loop of younger couple simply not having peers to go be “young marrieds” with–definitely an issue. Part of the large issue of media/Hollyweird destroying our culture’s marriage expectation.

    But you’re drilled into a specific interesting dynamic of how the market functions, and how attractive women forgoing early/prime-age marriage basically craters it.

  123. @AnotherDad
    @Castlereagh


    What’s more catastrophic for a country than feminism? Seriously what?
     
    Minoritarianism and its spawn, immigration.


    Seriously, modernity is a challenge. Lots of people are fascinated to the geegaws of modern life. And yeah--feminism. Women are compliant and when the culture changes to tell them that career and shopping and this and that toy is important, they'll buy it.

    But here's the thing:

    If you don't import people your nation will recover.

    The women whose inclination is toward "children", will simply outbreed women whose inclination is toward "status"--whether "career" or "enjoying distractions of modern life".

    Jobs will become more plentiful and higher paid--higher capital inputs, more automation, less drudgery. Housing cheaper. More open space. Less crowding and contention for everything from a spot on the highway to space on beach or a mountain trail. Fewer people makes family formation easier, for those who wish it.

    We'll get a somewhat altered distribution of genes. And actually it will be pretty nice. Some genetic attributes that worked in the past--variously for either men or women or both--that got women knocked up, without a whole lot of interest/desire for family ... will fade. Some attributes which encourage men and especially women to form families and have children, will become more common. The nation--the people who make up the nation--will become more "family oriented". Like i said "pretty nice".

    But ...

    Your nation only recovers if you can keep minoritarianism/immigrationism out.

    Otherwise you are dispossessed before selection leads to recovery. Minoritarianism is death.

    Replies: @AnotherDad

    Steve–wanted to say this an excellent post.

    There are a few other big-ass issues looming out there–the AI/automatic revolution and biotech–that could upset the human applecart.

    But there are really two–and only two–really impactful HBD issues:

    1) Protecting your nation/civilization from invasion/immigration–from demographic replacement.

    2) Creating/maintain stable eugenic fertility.

    And like the stone cold math that “immigration is population replacement” and immigrationism–the ideology of immigration; immigration forever–is death for your nation …

    there’s a similar math on the fertility side:

    Some nation/nations will develop a cultural program that continues technological modernity while producing stable/positive eugenic fertility. And those nations will win.

    People should all want it to be their nation. And real “leaders” of a nation should be working to make it their nation.

  124. @MEH 0910
    @Reg Cæsar

    The New York Times:


    In Darwin Family, Evidence of Inbreeding's Ill Effects
    By Nicholas Wade
    May 3, 2010

    Charles Darwin, the author of the theory of evolution, may have been right to worry that his children’s health had been affected by the inbreeding in his own family, especially that of his wife, Emma Wedgwood, who was his first cousin.

    A calculation based on first-cousin marriages over four generations of the two dynasties suggests that Darwin’s children had a mild degree of inbreeding, measured by the chance of inheriting the same version of a gene from both parents. Possible consequences of inbreeding can be seen in the children’s illnesses and degree of infertility, three researchers report in the current issue of BioScience.
     

    Darwin, after discovering the lack of vigor in inbred plants, worried that first-cousin marriages like his own might have adverse genetic effects, and that his own children might be affected.

    Tim M. Berra, an author of the new report, is a zoologist at Ohio State University who has a deep interest in Darwin. After reading a recent article about inbreeding in the Hapsburgs, the European royal family that nearly bred itself into extinction, Dr. Berra wondered if Darwin had good reason to be concerned. He wrote to the authors of the Hapsburg report, Gonzalo Alvarez and Francisco C. Ceballos of the University of Santiago de Compostela in Spain, asking if they would apply their computer program to the Darwin-Wedgwood pedigree.

    The degree of inbreeding among Darwin’s children, while not excessive, was enough to increase the risk of recessive diseases — ones that occur if a harmful version of a gene is inherited from both parents. Three of his 10 children died before age 10 — 2 of bacterial diseases. Childhood mortality from bacterial infections is associated with inbreeding.

    So, too, is infertility, and three of Darwin’s children who had long marriages left no children. Dr. Berra and his colleagues concluded that Darwin’s fears of consanguinity’s effect on his children’s health “appear to have been justified.”
     

    Replies: @Alden, @Reg Cæsar

    Tim M. Berra, an author of the new report, is a zoölogist at Ohio State University who has a deep interest in Darwin…

    Dr. Berra and his colleagues concluded that Darwin’s fears of consanguinity’s effect on his children’s health “appear to have been justified.

    Imagine what Yogi would have said on the subject, had he been asked.

  125. Anonymous[752] • Disclaimer says:
    @Patrick McNally
    @Spangel226

    That's a worthwhile point to take note of. If I were to summarize my sense of this part of the world it would be that, although liberalism as we understand in the West is certainly not in force there, the behind-doors attitudes of many people (especially women) still are overly enamored by Western influence. Many people have absorbed the sense that the West the ticket to success. That may be naive, but it holds a lot of influence.

    Long before Gorbachev openly declared glasnost and perestroika the sense had permeated all of the upper layers of the Soviet bureaucracy that they were falling irreversibly behind the West. This created a surge in the new generation of Soviet officials who came in with the Gorbachev generation with a readiness to fling their countries open to Western influence. A lot of the results were disastrous and one may honestly how things could have been different if they could have seen the West in 1989 as it was in 2019. East Europe definitely needed some serious changes, but the naive belief in flipping everything over to how the IMF would have wanted it was not always a good decision.

    China was a bit more cautious and maintained a more careful calibrated opening up of its economy, although there was still a lot of naivete there among sections of the Chinese. I think today many Chinese are glad that they didn't go whole hog in the way of Yeltsin. But they still are in many ways playing catch up with the West and trying to copy certain things while becoming more aware of the pitfalls.

    The Middle East did not openly have anything similar, at least not until the Arab Spring (or maybe the Iranian turmoil in 2009). But Western influence has certainly been pervasive there behind the scenes. It's possible that if Boris Yeltsin had produced a booming prosperous Russia in the 1990s then we would have seen a much bigger Arab Spring a lot earlier. Seeing how some attempts to open a country to Western influence has not always worked as intended has surely played some role in alleviating the tendency to openly shift that way. But the overall sense that the West is a model still does influence many women across the Middle East and likely will continue that way for a good while.

    This brings up another distinctive point about Israel. Most commenters here have pointed to the rivalry between Israel and the other Mideast states as a source of compulsion for higher Israeli birth rates. But something else to bear in mind is the scathing contempt for Western Goy which prevails among Israelis. This has the effect that Israelis do not see the West so much as the great model for them to strive to follow. That is not simply reflected in government policy (obviously Saudi policy does not try to duplicate the West as legal structure) but in grassroots ideas. The average Israeli is much more likely to have a contempt for the Western Goy which Netanyahu would keep under wraps. In Saudi Arabia it's likely the opposite: the average Saudi woman is restrained from trying to duplicate Western behavior but is quietly more drawn to it.

    Replies: @Spangel226, @Anonymous, @BernardLMontgomery

    The trouble with this analysis is that women have absolutely no power in Saudi Arabia.

    • Replies: @Patrick McNally
    @Anonymous

    That's a bit simplistic. Any society where fathers are not selecting husbands for their daughters at an early age (say before 20) is one where the women have at least some power. Historically and biologically the form of feminine power was always bound up with mate selection. Patriarchy in its most overt forms took this power away by making it normal for the father to promptly select a husband to pass his daughter on to. Over time this practice seemed to show enough disagreeable consequences that Western liberalism moved away from it and the West seemed to benefit from such changes. Today that influence of the West is widespread and as far as I can see even Saudi patriarchs seem a bit shy about demanding early marriage from their daughters. In this context their certainly must exist elements of feminine power even they are far more covert than what we see in the West today. But covert feminine power has always been a natural phenomenon.

    , @sss
    @Anonymous

    Men in Saudi Arabia are not their grandfathers. Educated Saudi men do not see women as chattel any longer- it is the men who absorbed some of the norms of the West. In addition, Islam being publicly enforced for 50 years by the worst, least educated, stupidest, least hygienic members of the population, has had an effect.

    , @anon
    @Anonymous

    The trouble with this analysis is that women have absolutely no power in Saudi Arabia.

    Why do you believe this to be true?

  126. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mehen


    Please explain how I am a “coward” for expressing my opinion?
     
    You wrote "some people" not "I". Don't be mealy-mouthed.

    I’m afraid you’ve taken this idea too far, ma’am.
     
    I was pointing out hypocrisy as much as I was making a practical suggestion. It worked in 3 directions.

    What makes you think I don’t understand my own desires? Self-awareness has been a singular focus of mine for at least 20 years. I’m not perfect, but certainly better than your average bear.
     
    I'm too tired to look into it right now. You can help me though, ever felt possessed?

    Replies: @Mehen

    Triteleia:

    I expressed an opinion about female/male dynamics — you accused me of being a “coward” — I asked you to explain your accusation – you did some pilpul, splitting the hairs between my expression of “I” and “other people”.

    Can you just relax for a moment? Christ.

    (PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: El Steverino (Sailer) is not particularly tolerant of the nonsense we are engaging in)

    (He is a Very Serious Person)

    I was pointing out hypocrisy as much as I was making a practical suggestion. It worked in 3 directions.

    I’m afraid I missed the 3D chess. How does anything you have said have anything to do with my assertion that BPD females are the raw expression of femininity in the wild?

    I’m too tired to look into it right now. You can help me though, ever felt possessed?

    Have I ever felt possessed?

    Indeed I have.

    I was — and still am — possessed with a burning desire for female beauty.

    I love doe-eyes, luxurious hair, bee-stung lips, and a demure personality.

    I had my experiences but I am “old” now. Beggars can’t be choosers.

    At my age I am beginning to make the transition from a superficial appreciation of beauty towards something more holistic. You know, no longer regarding women as sex-toys.

    Can you point in the right direction?

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mehen

    Perhaps quit drinking for a few months.

    Replies: @Mehen

  127. @Anonymous
    @Patrick McNally

    The trouble with this analysis is that women have absolutely no power in Saudi Arabia.

    Replies: @Patrick McNally, @sss, @anon

    That’s a bit simplistic. Any society where fathers are not selecting husbands for their daughters at an early age (say before 20) is one where the women have at least some power. Historically and biologically the form of feminine power was always bound up with mate selection. Patriarchy in its most overt forms took this power away by making it normal for the father to promptly select a husband to pass his daughter on to. Over time this practice seemed to show enough disagreeable consequences that Western liberalism moved away from it and the West seemed to benefit from such changes. Today that influence of the West is widespread and as far as I can see even Saudi patriarchs seem a bit shy about demanding early marriage from their daughters. In this context their certainly must exist elements of feminine power even they are far more covert than what we see in the West today. But covert feminine power has always been a natural phenomenon.

  128. @Mehen
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Triteleia:

    I expressed an opinion about female/male dynamics -- you accused me of being a "coward" -- I asked you to explain your accusation - you did some pilpul, splitting the hairs between my expression of "I" and "other people".

    Can you just relax for a moment? Christ.

    (PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: El Steverino (Sailer) is not particularly tolerant of the nonsense we are engaging in)

    (He is a Very Serious Person)


    I was pointing out hypocrisy as much as I was making a practical suggestion. It worked in 3 directions.
     
    I'm afraid I missed the 3D chess. How does anything you have said have anything to do with my assertion that BPD females are the raw expression of femininity in the wild?

    I’m too tired to look into it right now. You can help me though, ever felt possessed?
     
    Have I ever felt possessed?

    Indeed I have.

    I was -- and still am -- possessed with a burning desire for female beauty.

    I love doe-eyes, luxurious hair, bee-stung lips, and a demure personality.

    I had my experiences but I am "old" now. Beggars can't be choosers.

    At my age I am beginning to make the transition from a superficial appreciation of beauty towards something more holistic. You know, no longer regarding women as sex-toys.

    Can you point in the right direction?

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Perhaps quit drinking for a few months.

    • Thanks: Mehen
    • Replies: @Mehen
    @Triteleia Laxa

    https://itchysilk.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/d2y2Q23.jpg

  129. @Anon
    @Triteleia Laxa


    feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues
     
    But it isn't. Just look at the Army. They demanded entrance on the basis that WE ARE AS STRONG AS ANY MAN and of course immediately entry requirements for women were set at less than what men were held to.

    This isn't to say they all want a pussy pass. Some of the careergals really do adopt the same dedication to their jobs as men in their industries. But the inversion is rarely complete. Successful businesswomen are much less likely than their male counterparts to be attracted to potential mates with less career success than themselves, making the businesswoman/stay-at-home dad pairing of the theory less tenable.

    There's a parallel to the transgenders. Their adoption of femininity is selective(or artificial, to put it less charitably): focused heavily on looks, hair, makeup, nails, etc. It rarely shows itself in motherly instinct.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Successful businesswomen are much less likely than their male counterparts to be attracted to potential mates with less career success than themselves, making the businesswoman/stay-at-home dad pairing of the theory less tenable.

    This observation is the counterpart to the feminist one that men are frequently threatened by their female partner’s greater professional success and their fragile egos can’t handle it.

    Both, while partly true because people are complicated, are actually just copes because these are not huge hurdles to jump.

    Also, your reply, by ignoring that my comment wasn’t absolute, is just you ranting on about a bunch of things that upset you. That’s OK, but I can hardly address them, except to say, you’ll be OK.

    • Replies: @Anon
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Also, your reply, by ignoring that my comment wasn’t absolute, is just you ranting on about a bunch of things that upset you.
     
    Nah, it's me explaining the flaws in your proposal. Sorry if I offended you by doing so.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  130. @AnotherDad
    @Triteleia Laxa


    If feminism is the cause of the “apocalypse”, and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn’t you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?
     
    Reboot. (And this time have your eyes open and pay attention when you're going through high school.)

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    I think your obsession with white birth rates is mostly just a thin excuse for your own misogyny. As is the whole “women are this”, “”men are that” confused faux empiricism that is really just special pleading.

    Neither of these two discussion points have to be that, nor is “misogyny” the end of it, but it is very clear that both are mostly used by you as disingenuous props for telling women that they must behave like you want them to.

    Maybe I am wrong, but the more I read of your comments and responses the stronger my impression becomes.

    If women don’t conform to your expectations of them, perhaps that isn’t because of minoritarian brainwashing, but because they would find conforming to your expectations unpleasant? And they find the fact that you have, what they consider to be unpleasant expectations of them, bigoted and unpleasant in itself? You know…Occam’s Razor and all.

  131. @Patrick McNally
    @Spangel226

    That's a worthwhile point to take note of. If I were to summarize my sense of this part of the world it would be that, although liberalism as we understand in the West is certainly not in force there, the behind-doors attitudes of many people (especially women) still are overly enamored by Western influence. Many people have absorbed the sense that the West the ticket to success. That may be naive, but it holds a lot of influence.

    Long before Gorbachev openly declared glasnost and perestroika the sense had permeated all of the upper layers of the Soviet bureaucracy that they were falling irreversibly behind the West. This created a surge in the new generation of Soviet officials who came in with the Gorbachev generation with a readiness to fling their countries open to Western influence. A lot of the results were disastrous and one may honestly how things could have been different if they could have seen the West in 1989 as it was in 2019. East Europe definitely needed some serious changes, but the naive belief in flipping everything over to how the IMF would have wanted it was not always a good decision.

    China was a bit more cautious and maintained a more careful calibrated opening up of its economy, although there was still a lot of naivete there among sections of the Chinese. I think today many Chinese are glad that they didn't go whole hog in the way of Yeltsin. But they still are in many ways playing catch up with the West and trying to copy certain things while becoming more aware of the pitfalls.

    The Middle East did not openly have anything similar, at least not until the Arab Spring (or maybe the Iranian turmoil in 2009). But Western influence has certainly been pervasive there behind the scenes. It's possible that if Boris Yeltsin had produced a booming prosperous Russia in the 1990s then we would have seen a much bigger Arab Spring a lot earlier. Seeing how some attempts to open a country to Western influence has not always worked as intended has surely played some role in alleviating the tendency to openly shift that way. But the overall sense that the West is a model still does influence many women across the Middle East and likely will continue that way for a good while.

    This brings up another distinctive point about Israel. Most commenters here have pointed to the rivalry between Israel and the other Mideast states as a source of compulsion for higher Israeli birth rates. But something else to bear in mind is the scathing contempt for Western Goy which prevails among Israelis. This has the effect that Israelis do not see the West so much as the great model for them to strive to follow. That is not simply reflected in government policy (obviously Saudi policy does not try to duplicate the West as legal structure) but in grassroots ideas. The average Israeli is much more likely to have a contempt for the Western Goy which Netanyahu would keep under wraps. In Saudi Arabia it's likely the opposite: the average Saudi woman is restrained from trying to duplicate Western behavior but is quietly more drawn to it.

    Replies: @Spangel226, @Anonymous, @BernardLMontgomery

    Israeli definitely have not fully absorbed Western norms. Contempt? Maybe. Here are two interesting examples I found in a quick Google search.

    A member of their Parliament flat out, openly, blames the recent Covid outbreak on a gay pride parade, whereas in the US, as our host reminded us, no one will dare draw any conclusions about a Covid outbreak in Providence RI.

    And a current government minister just stated that
    “I think the integration of women into combat field units is a mistake,” ….adding that “the IDF’s role is to defeat the enemy and not to advance social agendas.”

    These things may not even be stated in the US any longer, much less agreed upon.

  132. A girl I know is unmarried, now at age forty she is looking to have a baby on her own. Sad but I think society actively gives women bad information, should be relatively easy to encourage a woman’s maternal instincts and frighten her about her biological clock.

  133. @Steve Sailer
    @Thomas

    Density, I imagine. Singapore, for all it's wealth, is a really crowded place.

    Replies: @BernardLMontgomery, @SIMP simp

    Communist countries of Eastern Europe saw their TFR drop in the 50’s and 60’s near or below replacement levels despite still having large rural populations. This prompted young Ceausescu to ban contraception and abortion in 1967, but the fertility boosting effects were short lived, so harsher measures were taken, which in turn had also short lived effects. This cycle repeated several times until Ceausescu was executed by soldiers from the generation born under his infamous decree and than fertility dropped sharply in the 90’s.
    2020 had the fewest new births in Romania since before communism. This is partly because the generation born in the 90’s is now at peak fertility age and they are fewer than the age cohorts before or after 90’s.
    One surprising fact is that the highest birth rate is in Bucharest, while the lowest are in the regions of SW and SE Romania which are among the most rural. The reason is that lots of young people emigrated from these areas due to lack of economic opportunities in small towns and rural areas, so their kids are now born in Italy and Spain while Bucharest still grows so it keeps and attracts young people, so its population has a healthier age structure.

  134. @Anonymous
    @Patrick McNally

    The trouble with this analysis is that women have absolutely no power in Saudi Arabia.

    Replies: @Patrick McNally, @sss, @anon

    Men in Saudi Arabia are not their grandfathers. Educated Saudi men do not see women as chattel any longer- it is the men who absorbed some of the norms of the West. In addition, Islam being publicly enforced for 50 years by the worst, least educated, stupidest, least hygienic members of the population, has had an effect.

  135. @Anonymous
    @Patrick McNally

    The trouble with this analysis is that women have absolutely no power in Saudi Arabia.

    Replies: @Patrick McNally, @sss, @anon

    The trouble with this analysis is that women have absolutely no power in Saudi Arabia.

    Why do you believe this to be true?

  136. If feminism is the cause of the “apocalypse”, and feminism is also women adopting more traditionally male virtues, why wouldn’t you, and other men, adopt more traditionally female virtues, to balance feminism out, and avert the apocalypse?

    …because men can’t bear children. And women aren’t attracted to feminine men, either. Are you trolling with this stupid comment?

  137. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anon


    Successful businesswomen are much less likely than their male counterparts to be attracted to potential mates with less career success than themselves, making the businesswoman/stay-at-home dad pairing of the theory less tenable.
     
    This observation is the counterpart to the feminist one that men are frequently threatened by their female partner's greater professional success and their fragile egos can't handle it.

    Both, while partly true because people are complicated, are actually just copes because these are not huge hurdles to jump.

    Also, your reply, by ignoring that my comment wasn't absolute, is just you ranting on about a bunch of things that upset you. That's OK, but I can hardly address them, except to say, you'll be OK.

    Replies: @Anon

    Also, your reply, by ignoring that my comment wasn’t absolute, is just you ranting on about a bunch of things that upset you.

    Nah, it’s me explaining the flaws in your proposal. Sorry if I offended you by doing so.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Anon

    Your "explanation" doesn't offend me. I actually welcome it. It is a great explanation of you. Thank you. Sorry I can't be of more help.

  138. @Anon
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Also, your reply, by ignoring that my comment wasn’t absolute, is just you ranting on about a bunch of things that upset you.
     
    Nah, it's me explaining the flaws in your proposal. Sorry if I offended you by doing so.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Your “explanation” doesn’t offend me. I actually welcome it. It is a great explanation of you. Thank you. Sorry I can’t be of more help.

  139. TFR down to 0.92 in 2019:

    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/culture/2021/07/135_311935.html

    And 0.84 in 2020.

    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/culture/2021/06/135_310951.html

    Estimated TFR for North Korea, 2018: 1.90

    Contrary to popular belief, the North is actually going to win!

  140. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Mehen

    Perhaps quit drinking for a few months.

    Replies: @Mehen

  141. @anon
    @Spect3r

    Cuomo is being “forced” to step down…

    Thus taking him out of the running for the 2024 nomination.

    So he will not be judged for all the deaths in the nursery houses.

    That's just a bonus. Nobody's pushing Gretchen Whitmer, granny-murdering Gov. of Michigan out. Same for the Gov. of New Jersey and the Gov. of Pennsylvania.

    When Nancy Pelosi, Charles Schumer, Bill DeBlasio and the Walking Dead of the White House all tell Cuomo to resign, it's not about teh sex - they all have that on their record - and it's not about killing old people.

    It's about 2024.

    Replies: @Alden, @Spect3r

    You might be on to something, but do you believe that Cuomo actually had a shot at it?

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