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 BlogAnatoly Karlin Archive

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I visited the Central Cathedral of the Russian Armed Forces, just slightly less than a year after its consecration. It is quite rare that reality exceeds visual media. But the Fortress-Monastery does so, in spades, and that despite its already superlative neo-Byzantine steampunk aesthetics on screen, which are like something out of a Maxim Bedulenko... Read More
Egor Ligachev, leader of the "conservative" wing of the CPSU under Gorbachev, died yesterday at the age of 100. He was a teetotaller who took good care of his health. The cause of death was bilateral pneumonia, though his son says it wasn't COVID-19. By all accounts, he was a decent and uncorrupt man, e.g.... Read More
This week's Open Thread. ~ Emil Kirkegaard - Meta-compilation of HBD related materials. Very useful link. Also dug up this Blast from the Past: Who’s afraid of the big bad data? ~ NEW PAPER. Rieger, M. O., Wang, M., & Hens, T. (2021). Universal time preference. PloS One, 16(2), e0245692. (h/t @whyvert) ~ XENOS. Pop... Read More
This is Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's assessment of global excess mortality from COVID-19 from the beginning until May 3, 2021. (h/t Ron Unz) You can read about the methodology here. All in all, this sadly comports with the "millions" prediction I made in February 24, 2020. While at the end of last year... Read More
You missed the Big Tech explosion because you didn't understand what de facto monopolies wedded to economies of scale can do. You have been deplatformed by Zuck and @jack for being a racist and a white supremacist, and you don't even have their stonks for consolation. You didn't hop aboard the Tesla train because you... Read More
  ~ Fake News. Final unraveling of the Russian Bounties "story." As I said from the beginning, if you believe that the Taliban need Russian rubles to kill Americans, you're either a neocon or a moron. Glenn Greenwald on this topic. ~ Scott Alexander - Prospectus On Próspera. Think of the flies. (Or, why I'm... Read More
Society 282 in action! But actually, it's not just a "society" (as in "social pressure", no matter how artificial) by now. No flight lists are compiled by the federal government. All that because Fuentes turned out to a (legal) protest for Orange Man. You have Ricky Vaughn railroaded for literally posting memes on Twitter in... Read More
US Embassy in Moscow: Trump - Muslim travel ban. Biden - Russian travel ban. Anyhow, as I keep saying, this "social distancing" from the US and the West in general is a good idea. It blunts the impact of bad Western memes and tars their promoters within Russia by association. Meanwhile, it's not as if... Read More
Population is power, so it pays to keep track of it (along with national IQ and GDPcc), for those with an interest in geopolitics and futurism. I used to spend way too much time poring over statistics almanacs and the CIA World Factbook during my school years, so I have a pretty good fix on... Read More
I have compared the current standoff in Donbass to a poker game. By amassing troops around Ukraine, Putin let it be known that a Ukrainian attack on Donbass would be - well, if not assuredly catastrophic, then at least extremely risky for its continued statehood. Ukraine could raise by going ahead with it anyway. It... Read More
The Navalny campaign is calling for nationwide protests on April 21 after the failure of their campaign to even get half a million people (quick arithmetic: 0.3% of Russia's population) to register and commit to coming out and protesting on their website. I don't see much coming out of it. I correctly said that the... Read More
I sympathize with Navalny's radical weight loss plan, I truly do. Following on from his looksmaxxing Novichok Protocol, like him or not, we have to recognize him as a man truly dedicated to self-improvement. That said, I would strongly recommend supplementation if you plan to fast for more than three days. I wrote a helpful... Read More
I would unironically endorse this, if perhaps not for Ilves Toomas' reasons. I wouldn't have several years ago when I still thought there was some chance of productive relations between Russia and the West, and thought that examining misperceptions about Russia in the Anglosphere was a legitimate and effective way of achieving that. But today,... Read More
There's not much to add now except that we are approaching the moment of maximum danger. (I noted that if it happens, it will probably happen sometime from late April to July). What I think essentially happened is that the Ukrainians wanted to do an Operation Storm on Donbass, which is why movements of military... Read More
Ethiopia has long done quite well by Sub-Saharan African standards. It has a good record of human accomplishment, being the only country in the region to have developed a literary corpus before European colonialism. But it was, until recently, extremely poor. But no longer so after a decade of some of the highest growth rates... Read More
This week's Open Thread. (1) Vitalik Buterin - Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election. Best explanation of why predictions markets were giving Trump 10% well after it was clear it was <1%. (2) Balaji - How to Start a New Country. One of my favorite Indians. He discusses his new website (amongst other things) with... Read More
It strikes me that most of life's most exquisite comforts can be had with ~$10M or so. Apartment in the center of a world class city (luxury condo if in the Second World). Holiday home. Nice vacations and gourmet restaurants. Model-tier gf. ^ The virgin financial docs sleuthing to suggest Bad Orange Man isn't a... Read More
From the indispensable BioHackInfo: China’s new Criminal Code, which came into effect four weeks ago on March 1st, has a new section dedicated to ‘illegal medical practices’, which makes it a punishable crime to create gene-edited babies, human clones and animal-human chimeras. The new section is an amendment to Article 336 of China’s Criminal Law,... Read More
I know this will come as a shock to many of my regular readers, but I will nonetheless ask you to respect my new identity as a Black Trans Russian (#BTR, pronouns: she/her) and support me in my transition. You can do that verbally, or even better, financially. Those surgeries don't come cheap. Black Trans... Read More
In 2015, I attempted to quantify the military power of the world's states with an index of Comprehensive Military Power. You can read the post, including the detailed methodology, here. Since then, its conclusions - broadly speaking, that China and Russia had about a third of US military power in the mid-2010s, while the next-tier... Read More
It's quite amusing that, read in the wrong (right?) light, this basically comes off as a paean to White Supremacy. It's the ultimate humblebrag. I think there's quite a lot of truth to this thesis of The Unbearable Lightness of White Supremacy. Regardless of which White faction "wins" this civil war, the power structure itself... Read More
Interesting links. (1) Len Sassaman and Satoshi: a Cypherpunk History. This is, I think, the strongest case for someone being Satoshi that I have read to date. All I can say is that IF it was him, he played the double act VERY well. (2) Gregoire Canlorbe (Postil Magazine) - A conversation with Emil O.W.... Read More
The blockage of the Suez Canal and the 12% of world cargo trade (1 billion tons of cargo per year) that flows through it raises the profile of an obvious and much shorter alternative that global warming is making increasingly attractive. Arctic sea ice continues to retreat at a very rapid clip (currently running below... Read More
For various reasons I am upping my probability of intense fighting in the Donbass this year (probably this summer) to over 50%. The Ukrainian buildup on the border continues. Wheeling in all those guns and equipment and letting them stand idle is expensive. The Americans have sent a cargo ship which is unloading more equipment... Read More
Lu, J. G., Nisbett, R. E., & Morris, M. W. (2020). Why East Asians but not South Asians are underrepresented in leadership positions in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(9), 4590–4600. (h/t Razib Khan) Article makes the case that EAs are underrepresented ("bamboo ceiling")... Read More
(h/t @popdemography) Anyhow, very good/comprehensive map, with almost surprises. The only thing that was a real TIL to me was the increase in Belgorod oblast, which is the green region next to Kharkov oblast in Ukraine. Its TFR is low like in most central Russian regions, but it's apparently a popular destination for Russians from... Read More
Why Western SJWs are the Real Racists
Bold but not entirely trollish interpretation of the Great Awokening. Western - White American - culture remains hegemonic around the world, even as its economic and military preponderance slips away. Assuming this cultural hegemony remains intact, cultural "innovations" that arise in the imperial metropolis inevitably seep their way into the colonies. This is obviously correct... Read More
This week's Open Thread. Philippe Lemoine - The Case against Lockdowns. I don't agree with all of it (e.g., Ctrl-F for "centralized quarantine" shows zero hits and in retrospect, that and masks really seem to be key). But I have long since started to oppose lockdowns. If you're not fundamentally serious about or incapable of... Read More
Though I realize that Putin's call for a debate with Biden in response to Biden's claim that Putin is a "killer" is a troll job on all sides, it strikes me that debates between heads of states are an interesting idea that need to be actualized. If you think there is "ideological polarization" between Democrats... Read More
From a speech yesterday: If you look at our map, our big map, Crimea and Sevastopol look like a small dot, but we are talking about the restoration of historical justice. We are talking about the importance of this land for our country and our people. Why? It is very simple. Our ancestors have been... Read More
New Levada poll shows Russians decreasingly willing to identify Russia as a European country: From 52% in 2008 (vs. 36%) to 29% in 2021 (vs. 64%). However, perhaps even more tellingly, this percentage goes DOWN with age. Just 23% of 18-24 y/o's identify Russia as Europe, vs. 33% of 55%+ y/o's. Could it be that... Read More
There's been reports of a Ukrainian military buildup in the Donbass for several weeks now. The Saker, amongst others, has also reported on them, quoting a Telegram blogger who is claimed to have good sources in Kiev: My main reason for skepticism that the Ukrainians have serious aggressive intentions is that the Ukraine is still... Read More
Been a while since the last Belarus update. It looks like progress towards implementing Union State provisions continues, with some accomplishments including: Mutual recognition of visas from third countries. (So getting a Russian visa will now enable you to visit Belarus as well). Moves towards removing cell phone roaming. Russia to recognize results of the... Read More
This week's Open Thread. Some interesting posts of note: Glenn Greenwald - Journalists Start Demanding Substack Censor its Writers: to Bar Critiques of Journalists Patrick Armstrong - Lab Rats to the Front. Written at about the same time as my own Woke Mil, so I'm not the only one noticing this phenomenon. [twitter] @TheDailyMao -... Read More
There's renewed rumors of war in the Donbass. But I don't think it's happening for a multitude of different reasons: Polls suggest that since around 2019 an outright majority of the LDNR wants direct union with Russia (<10% want independent, 12% want reintegration into Ukraine). The region is increasingly integrated into Russia de facto. The... Read More
Lychakov, N. I., Saprykin, D. L., & Vanteeva, N. (2020). Not Backward: Comparative Labour Productivity In British And Russian Manufacturing, Circa 1908 (WP BRP 199/HUM/2020). National Research University Higher School of Economics. (h/t @devarbol) This recent paper says that the Russian Empire, far from being in a general sense of "economic backwardness", was better viewed... Read More
#BlueAnon is a term to describe libs and their obsession with Russiagate and other conspiracy theories that may be somewhat more credible than the idea we're ruled by Satanist pedophiles - but not not by all that much relative to the sanity gap between them: (It might have some connection/overlap to #BlueMAGA, a term invented... Read More
This week's Open Thread. Links: spandrell: We don't have to tweet like this. urbit is probably the future of social media just like #DeFi will replace TradFi. Scott Alexander: Shilling For Big Mitochondria. Fat loss pill that actually works - and invented (and banned) during the 1930s to boot. Minor problem? 0.01% mortality rate. Seems... Read More
The Influence of SJW Commissars Upon History
On paper, the US still has by far the world's strongest military. This is the case whether or not you measure it by military spending, by various indices of military power (e.g. MEU, CAP, or the CMP developed on this blog), or as pertains to the narrower if arguably more relevant naval sphere, by naval... Read More
There are only three real ones. Malevolent superintelligence. Aliens. The simulation ends. And various permutations thereof. (I suppose biological lifeforms losing consciousness during mind uploading is another one, but it can be considered a subset of the first one). Nuclear war isn't an X risk. It wasn't one during the height of the Cold War.... Read More
To get really good at Scrabble, you have to grind at it. Sure, you can do that. Requirements are simple. As Chanda Chisala says, you only need a dictionary. You don't need a gaming PC or good Internet (or any Internet). And malnutrition impinges least on precisely verbal IQ, which is convenient. As is having... Read More
Saunders, R. J., & Souva, M. (2020). Command of the skies: An air power dataset. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 37(6), 735–755. (h/t whyvert)
I didn't take any good photos recently, so here's a video with creepy music instead - the better to with this scifi horror short story that I read recently, "Lena" on ems by qntm. Much darker vision than Hanson's. Though I suppose if there are trillions of ems, only a small percentage of them will... Read More
Leaked documents have unequivocally proven that the United Kingdom has been running a large-scale and well-funded program to plaster the Western media with anti-Russian propaganda and Twitter wants you to know that these materials were obtained through hacking. Meanwhile, just a few weeks ago, the connections between American Big Tech and these sundry programs were... Read More
Several months ago, I speculated why Twitter would suspend the Valdai Club (a milquetoast discussion group that largely centers around economics issues and has a large component of systemic liberals within in). Now we have an answer. RT: Twitter is an American company and it's long been clear that it is used along with Facebook... Read More
Armenian General Staff is demanding a Pashinyan resignation. Summary from /r/armenia: In a statement issued on the afternoon of February 25, the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Forces demanded the resignation of Nikol Pashinyan and his Cabinet., expressing strong disapproval of Pashinyan's sacking of Tigran Khachatryan, the First Deputy Chief of the General Staff.... Read More
I have written that Moscow - not to mention the rest of Russia - remains an overwhelmingly (that is, 85%-90% Slavic) megapolis. The Myth of Moskvabad From Russia to Russabia? Not Anytime Soon I don't see the need to reiterate something that only remains an obsession for a few liberal racists masquerading as Russian nationalists,... Read More
Currently jostling in the top rankings: Jeff Bezos (Amazon) and Elon Musk (Tesla), both at around $200B. Amazon is a mature company that dominates the US e-commerce market and has substantial fingerprints abroad (about a third of revenue). Also not to be underrated is AWS, which accounts for a third of the global cloud computing... Read More
Michel Houellebecq - SUBMISSION (2015) Rating: 4/5 You can access all of my latest book, film, and video game reviews at this link, as well as an ordered, categorized list of all my book reviews and ratings here: Finally read Houellebecq's Submission a few weeks ago, filling in a major and hitherto embarrassing lacuna. He... Read More
There has been a large leak of documents from the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) showing that the UK is sponsoring and providing editorial guidance to anti-Kremlin journalists, media organizations, and YouTubers as part of a £100 million plan to "tackle Kremlin disinformation" during 2018-22. Their aim, forthrightly stated, is to "[weaken] the Russian... Read More
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.