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Russian Ambassador to China Affirms Strategic Partnership
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Biden and Putin will meet in Geneva on June 16. Speculation has been rife that Biden will try to draw Russia away from its deepening relationship with China. This makes patent sense – even American strategists have long realized that China isn’t just a much bigger Mexico, and in fact constitutes the one threat to its global hegemony. This shift was in fact started in the late 2010s under the Trump Administration, but Russiagate as a wedge political issue made any real negotiations on the matter impossible. As someone who is certainly not “Putin’s puppet”, Biden may have greater leeway to offer a deal.

Almost certainly, nothing substantial will come out of it. The observation that the US is “agreement-incapable” has not ceased to be true, at least so far as Russia is concerned. For every small pullback, such as the dropping of US sanctions on German firms involved in Nord Stream 2 construction (but this a favor to Germany, not to Russia), there are more counter-escalations, such as the US ban on American banks purchasing newly issued Russian debt this April.

Meanwhile, there are almost no sources of friction in the Sino-Russian relation and a great deal of scope for productive cooperation. The seething and coping of various neocons and crypto-neocons masquerading as anti-globalists doesn’t change this fundamental reality:

It would appear to be idiotic to give up on all that for the promise of table crumps from the Americans, and the Russian Ambassador to China Andrey Denisov has said as much in a recent interview with The Global Times:

GT: Some analysts suggest the Biden administration may take measures to ease tensions with Russia in order to concentrate on dealing with China. Will this strategy alienate Russia from China and draw it closer to the US?

Denisov: This view is too short-sighted. It can’t happen. I think we’re smarter than what the Americans think.

He was also explicit in stating that Russia and China are much closer on a variety of issues than the US, which has been imposing sanctions on both of them in different spheres.

GT: Competition and confrontation between China and the US are escalating. If one day an armed conflict between China and the US happens, what position would Russia take?

Denisov: There will be no answer to this question because I am convinced that there will be no armed conflict between China and the US, just as there will be no armed conflict between Russia and the US, because such a conflict would exterminate all mankind, and then there would be no point in taking sides. However, if you are asking about the judgment of the international situation and major issues, then Russia’s position is clearly much closer to China’s.

In recent years, the US has imposed sanctions both on Russia and China. Although the areas and content of the US’ dissatisfaction towards Russia and China are different, the goal of the US is the same: to crush the competitor. We clearly cannot accept such an attitude from the US. We hope that the Russia-China-US “tripod” will keep balance.

Last but not least, it is especially notable that the Ambassador explicitly disavows the Wuhan lab leak hypothesis:

GT: The West has been hyping up Russia and China’s so-called “vaccine diplomacy,” claiming that the two countries are pursuing geopolitical interests through vaccine exports and aid. What do you think of it?

Denisov: …

Besides, the West’s fabrication about the virus being a result of “a Chinese laboratory leak” is a classic case of politicizing the pandemic. These are very unfair political statements, which are not the right way to address this devastating human crisis.

Like some other people, I raised the possibility that Corona was a lab leak as early as late January 2020 (assigning it a 20% chance with most of the other 80% being assigned to a more banal zoonotic origin). For more than a year, this lab leak theory was dismissed as conspiracy theory which could get you deplatformed from Big Tech platforms and castigated as an anti-Asian racist by handshakeworthy society. Then, just a month ago, there has been a veritable 180 degree shift, with the Wuhan lab leak theory rapidly becoming the conventional wisdom. These schizoid oscillations in the Official Narrative should not much chance our preexisting probability curve on the origins of Corona, with the much more relevant question being, “why now?”, and “what are the Western elites planning?”

The answer, seemingly confirmed at the G7 meeting earlier today, is a broad Western front against China, possibly eventually escalating to reparations demands – under Trump, confined to neocon publications, but now growing in popularity in normie discourse – for “unleashing Corona” and then “lying” about it. The Chinese refusal to entertain such diktats will consequently be used as the pretext to kickstart the Great Bifurcation, whose ultimate aim is to impose a cordon sanitaire between China and as much of the rest of the world as possible.

Essentially, Russia here is sending a signal that it will not endorse this Western campaign to create a “Black Legend” targeted against China.

 
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  1. Please keep off topic posts to the current Open Thread.

    If you are new to my work, start here.

    Commenting rules. Please note that anonymous comments are not allowed.

  2. I don’t understand why the US isn’t friendly with Russia. I can only suppose that they are hoping that something favourable for them happens when Putin leaves power/dies. I am not sure they are wrong, but it seems a haphazard plan.

    • Replies: @Barbarossa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Arab terrorists have lost their zing, and so it's back to the Cold War. We need enemies to define ourselves to keep the anger externalized as much as possible.

    It's always been striking to me that all the countries on the U.S. "bad list" are ones who are not on board with American financial plans. Putin does seem to be intent on doing things his own way and not bowing to the American economic system, which puts him in opposition to "our interests".

    The neo-con barb is always that Russia is a "gas station with a foreign policy". I suppose the counter-barb could be that the U.S. is a "bank with a foreign policy".

    Russia's behavior would not make amicable coexistence impossible from a sane multi-polar worldview where sovereign countries are permitted to have independent national interests, but from the position of hegemony any deviation is intolerable.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Wency

    , @Felix Keverich
    @Triteleia Laxa

    You won't understand anything about American culture and politics until you take into account overwhelming power of Jewry in that country. American "Jewish community" hails from the former Russian empire, and these people convinced themselves that they've been wronged by Russia. It's a cornerstone of their tribal identity so to speak, and that means they are going to use the USA to exact revenge.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Showmethereal
    @Triteleia Laxa

    What is there not to get? The US has no friends. It has subordinates. Russia is not i terested in being a subordinate. The closest the US has to "partners" is the 5 Eyes Anglo Saxon spy group. And even then only England is barely above vassal status.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  3. Reading about all this supposed RF-China lovefest obviously makes it clear that many people do not like to think about or even are unable to grasp longer term horizons, like somebody in 1870-80’s could be arguing that strong united and industrially expanding Germany is beneficial to RI, because Bismark has favourable views towards Russians, therefore Britain is the foe.

    • Replies: @216
    @sudden death

    Most Russian exports are still going to the EU, so their interest is in severing Europe from the Anglo countries.

    , @Korenchkin
    @sudden death

    Britain was the foe, their Alliance was out of convenience after decades of trying to sabotage eachother in the Great Game.
    Had Russia and Germany succeeded in avoiding conflict then the many disasters of the 20th Century could've been avoided.

    Besides, the Chinese version of Drang Nach Osten is aimed at Southeast Asia.

    Replies: @Showmethereal, @LondonBob

    , @Blinky Bill
    @sudden death

    https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1404744454582325254?s=20

    Replies: @sudden death

  4. Anglos are a one-trick pony: divide your enemies by any means and get them to fight each other. Lie about it. Repeat. They have done it for hundreds of years and unfortunately for them that ship has sailed – it is too obvious and too simple-minded in today’s world.

    But they have nothing else: China dominates economically and Russia is strong enough militarily. West cannot fight real wars because they are averse to casualties. They cannot color-revolution additional countries because that template is exhausted and easily defeated. That leaves pouting, preaching and sanctions. The problem with sanctions is that they are effectively dismantling the global dollar dominance – something that Washington cannot afford to lose. They can only go so far before killing the goose laying the golden eggs.

    So it is back to trying to get Russia and China to fight. It is lame and weak.

    • Replies: @LondonBob
    @Beckow

    Actually it is a trick everyone uses, but only the smart countries pull off. Who needs war, Germany has achieved every aim they have had in the 20th century by hardly firing a single shot, unlike at the end of WWI or WWII they have turned every Eastern European country, except Belarus, in to a seemingly independent free country that is completely dependent on them. That is impressive, they have piggybacked off of the US and now they will likely pivot away from them, unfortunately the US is run by an incompetent Jewish elite and has ended up a spectacular loser.

  5. @sudden death
    Reading about all this supposed RF-China lovefest obviously makes it clear that many people do not like to think about or even are unable to grasp longer term horizons, like somebody in 1870-80's could be arguing that strong united and industrially expanding Germany is beneficial to RI, because Bismark has favourable views towards Russians, therefore Britain is the foe.

    Replies: @216, @Korenchkin, @Blinky Bill

    Most Russian exports are still going to the EU, so their interest is in severing Europe from the Anglo countries.

  6. Most American conservatives are foolishly taking the bait vis-a-vis China.

    Rather than blaming:

    -The tech companies
    -weak/corrupt GOP pols
    -The universities
    -The news media
    -Woke celebrities

    They are all banging on about “The CCP” as the font of evil, one might call it “The Anti-Semitism of fools”

    • Agree: Tom Marvolo Riddle
    • Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @216

    Well, the 'Free World' does 100% ideological totalitarianism and absolute intellectual authoritarianism through a media that no longer allows the expression of a scintilla of dissent from the Imperial narrative, very well. The sight of presstitute vermin who operate this brainwashing system declaring themselves 'truth-tellers' has long gone past the emetic to the downright hilarious.

  7. It makes no sense for Russia to drift away from the rising economic superpower in order to please the treacherous and declining one.
    .

    • Agree: Marshal Marlow
    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Aedib


    It makes no sense for Russia to drift away from the rising economic superpower in order to please the treacherous and declining one.
     
    Relative to RF:

    10x population and 10x economy and rising - no danger, very cool.

    2,3x population and 10x economy and declining - danger, the horror.

    Very cold and calculated logic, the true pinnacle of realpolitic ;)

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin, @Aedib

  8. @sudden death
    Reading about all this supposed RF-China lovefest obviously makes it clear that many people do not like to think about or even are unable to grasp longer term horizons, like somebody in 1870-80's could be arguing that strong united and industrially expanding Germany is beneficial to RI, because Bismark has favourable views towards Russians, therefore Britain is the foe.

    Replies: @216, @Korenchkin, @Blinky Bill

    Britain was the foe, their Alliance was out of convenience after decades of trying to sabotage eachother in the Great Game.
    Had Russia and Germany succeeded in avoiding conflict then the many disasters of the 20th Century could’ve been avoided.

    Besides, the Chinese version of Drang Nach Osten is aimed at Southeast Asia.

    • Replies: @Showmethereal
    @Korenchkin

    Yeah i wonder why people pretend Europe waz united except under Empire. Different ethnic groups always disliked each other. Now everyone is pretending Slavs weren't looked down as by Western EuropeNs and Southern werent looked down upon by northern. I am not from Europe but the historical literature is easy to find. I'm still puzzled by the intense disdain toward Serbs in the lead up to WW1

    , @LondonBob
    @Korenchkin

    No Germany and Russia were the main protagonists, Germany's mistake was not waiting, increasing Russian industrialisation would have heightened fears around Russian power rising and then they would have been able to cobble together a better coalition. Indeed had Germany simply avoided invading Belgium they would have won the war as Britain would have stayed out.

  9. GT: Competition and confrontation between China and the US are escalating. If one day an armed conflict between China and the US happens, what position would Russia take?

    Denisov: There will be no answer to this question because I am convinced that there will be no armed conflict between China and the US, just as there will be no armed conflict between Russia and the US, because such a conflict would exterminate all mankind, and then there would be no point in taking sides.

    I would have to disagree with Mr. Denisov on this point. What do the demon-possessed, devil-worshiping madmen running the U.S. “government” care if they “exterminate all mankind”? I’m afraid we’re in a situation where if the madmen can’t have the world, they’ll do everything they can to make sure nobody else can either.

    • Agree: Yellowface Anon
  10. The Russian move towards China will be a big shock to western rightoids obsessed with China.

    They lost their countries, they lost Russia as a potential ally too. I wonder what’s next.

    Actually linking up with Eurasia was their only chance (and their enemies understood that), but they were too dumb to get it.

    • Agree: Aedib
    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Passer by

    Good. They're insufferable, and make me want to shit out of my glorious eyes whenever I lay them upon their imbecilic, butthurt-loaded, cope-stuffed drivel.

    Their argument is "hurr ppl like liberalism so China won't be able to replace the US as global hegemon" like the dumb retard cattle are actually asked for their opinion (not like they can actually have one)

    , @Tsar Nicholas
    @Passer by


    They lost their countries, they lost Russia as a potential ally too. I wonder what’s next.
     
    They will provoke WW3 and lose that also.
  11. On the issue of growing Russia – China cooperation.

    Chinese tourists reach 30 % of tourists in Russia.

    Joint moon space station prepared by Russia/China.

    Russia builds nuclear power plants in China.

    China is involved in building massive 14 billion $ chemical plant near SP.

    Russia-China trade set to double by 2024.

    New bridges being built between Russia and China.

    Russia prepares Power of Siberia 2 and 3 pipelines to China.

    Russia works to replace Australia for coal exports to China.

    Russia increases food exports to China.

    China produces russian vaccines.

    Russia and China work on Meridian Pan-Asian highway.

    Huawei to work on 5G in Russia.

    Russia joins BRI.

    Yuan to reach 30 % of certain russian reserves in place of US dollar.

    Russia – China trade mostly bypasses dollar.

    • Thanks: Showmethereal
    • Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Passer by

    Does Russia have iron ore? Replace Austfailia's iron ore bounty with another source and the nassty, racist, dystopia will collapse into a heap.

    Replies: @for-the-record

  12. I no longer believe that the westerners are even competent to exercise free will. The pozz has rotten their brains so much, that 90% are utterly useless and irredeemable, and forcing the sane 10% to power would necessitate exterminating those nutjob 90% anyway.

    Their leaders especially – their brains are so rotten and replaced with raw sewage, that they will keep escalating and eventually just full blown launching an extermination war out of pure butthurt.

    All cultural effects point to this. In the west, you’re encouraged to be as offended as possible over even the smallest thing, and in other people’s name, and to always escalate more and more. Without a doubt, their elites have started to drink this koolaid too. So they will do this.

    Amazingly enough they went full circle into primeval barbarism where making a mistake and messing up some dumb useless social ritual is grounds to be horrifically murdered to “protect the village’s honor” or some other false excuse inferior societies use.

    Russia and China should instead take the accelerationpill and take all their ships, stuff them full of the most bottom tier africans and other iq-challenged peoples and dump them in western ports by the millions. It’s a win-win scenario for humanity, really.

    • Agree: Malenfant
  13. @Passer by
    The Russian move towards China will be a big shock to western rightoids obsessed with China.

    They lost their countries, they lost Russia as a potential ally too. I wonder what's next.

    Actually linking up with Eurasia was their only chance (and their enemies understood that), but they were too dumb to get it.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Tsar Nicholas

    Good. They’re insufferable, and make me want to shit out of my glorious eyes whenever I lay them upon their imbecilic, butthurt-loaded, cope-stuffed drivel.

    Their argument is “hurr ppl like liberalism so China won’t be able to replace the US as global hegemon” like the dumb retard cattle are actually asked for their opinion (not like they can actually have one)

  14. 216 says: • Website

    Good. They’re insufferable, and make me want to shit out of my glorious eyes whenever I lay them upon their imbecilic, butthurt-loaded, cope-stuffed drivel.

    Call them all the names you want, but they are my people and I will not apologize for our existence nor our once and future greatness.

    Conservatives are the best of America, the liberal is the same no matter where he is.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @216

    This is exactly what is your problem. You have no future, you've handed it over to subhuman roaches on a silver platter because you wanted to take the high road.

    Conservativism is merely just a 20 year lag to any woke bullshit, and you know it. It's a brake to progressivism, not the catastrophic derailment and annihilation that is needed

  15. AP says:

    Ultimately if it becomes China-Russia-Iran-NK-Iran vs. everyone else, the former lose. CRINK would have to bring some other powers – such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world – on board to really become competitive. I’m not predicting whether or not it can be done, but if it isn’t done, the West determines the world’s fate. The best CRINK can hope for is voluntary self-destruction.

    • LOL: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @AP

    I guess it's time for you to surrender to the homosex alliance, then.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Barbarossa
    @AP

    That is why China in particular is playing a long game; letting the U.S. implode while building economic ties and influence abroad.
    The whole point is to avoid a head to head confrontation, hopefully entirely, but for as long as possible. China's position is on track to only grow stronger over time while the U.S. diminishes. As that happens more countries will see which side their bread is buttered on.

    That's not a value judgement on Chinese ascendancy necessarily, as I'm guessing that trading the U.S. hegemony for China's may be jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire. Ideally, China will be somewhat constrained internationally.

    Replies: @utu

    , @Felix Keverich
    @AP

    China brings Myanmar and Pakistan to the table. Iran has Yemen and Syria. Belarus and the Ukraine are bound to reunite with Russia sooner rather than later.

    In Latin America we can count on Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua, placing mainland US in the range of our cruise missiles. It's a coalition.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    , @AltanBakshi
    @AP

    But its not them against everyone else, maybe in your deluded imagination things are so simple. World is not just Russo-Chinese alliance vs. Five Eyes+EU+The rest, but there are growing and emerging countries like Philippines, Burma, Indonesia, Vietnam and others which are not anymore as growing but still strategically extremely important like Pakistan, Turkey and Malaysia, none of those countries are truly in the Western camp, nor they are ready to fight for the West, India and Bangladesh included.

    You are fool if you think that Latin America or Arab world is the key to victory, they are more or less passive bystanders, if they have some value in the future it's just as pawns. Anyway are allies like Saudi Arabia and Egypt truly smart investments in the longer run?

    Replies: @AP

    , @china-russia-all-the-way
    @AP

    To keep the analysis from becoming unwieldy I'll focus on Eurasia.

    The China-Russia Entente is in a very good position to hold sway over Eurasia. The Entente jointly holds overwhelming influence over Central Asia. Pakistan, North Korea, and Burma are allies of China. Most of Southeast Asia tilts toward China. With the help of Russia, even Vietnam might be neutral. South Korea has become conspicuously silent in international discussions over controversies related to China.

    The most consequential relationship for the Entente could be with Iran. China signed a framework with Iran for investment in oil and gas and military ties. Russia provided a $5 billion loan to Iran in 2019. The potential for substantial support for Iran is a major worry in Israeli strategic thinking. Netanyahu's Mossad chief recently retired. In his outgoing speech, he made remarks highly critical of American confrontation against China.


    Recently retired Mossad chief Yossi Cohen expressed skepticism over Washington’s increasingly tough approach to China on Monday, declaring that he did not understand what the United States was hoping to accomplish by challenging Beijing.

    During a lecture at Bar-Ilan University, where he was awarded an honorary degree, the former Israeli spymaster questioned why the United States is pushing for an investigation into China’s possible role in the spread of the coronavirus.

    As first reported on Israeli news website Walla, he declared: "I do not understand what the Americans want from China. If anyone understands, they should explain it to me. China isn’t against us and is not our enemy."
     
    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/ex-mossad-chief-says-he-doesn-t-understand-u-s-antagonism-toward-china-1.9885569

    I would speculate Cohen is very concerned about China's relationship with Iran in strengthening Iran's capabilities and economic resilience and the opportunity a Eurasian war would present to Iran. If Iran believes it is likely to eventually be attacked by the US, then Iran calculates that it should first attack US military bases in the Middle East if there is an opportunity. If there is a war over Taiwan or Ukraine or both, Iran would seize the opportunity to go to war. The alternative is to suffer under economic sanctions for several years, grow weaker, and wait to get attacked. The level of Chinese support for Iran will also become tied to the level of support by the US for Taiwan. It would be a nightmare scenario for Israel if Taiwan gets advanced weapons and then China gives long-range missile technology to Iran.

    There is an emerging alliance system in Eurasia led by China and Russia. Iran is standing in the wings waiting to launch the war according to its schedule. These are very formidable dynamics on the side of China and Russia.

    Replies: @AP, @Showmethereal

    , @Blinky Bill
    @AP

    Trinidad and Tobago right behind you!

    https://i.redd.it/jyt0m36qz8571.jpg

    Someone else in the feed pointed out that a full box contains 195 vials. So they actually opened up a box and counted out 80, for a nation of 1.4 million people.

    , @Dreadilk
    @AP

    Holy Mother replies. I will add that axis will never be VS everybody else. It is guaranteed large majority will be neutral and western camp is more likely to fracture from cost of conflict.

    , @Rattus Norwegius
    @AP

    I tend to agree, the Western alliance and it's partners together is too strong to be defeated in armed conflict. Should the CRINK be hemmed in by the Western Axis then countries who wish to be neutral will be unable to trade with CRINK. Their trade will however continue with the Western Axis, thus strengthening the Western war effort. Some countries will also declare war even if they contribute little or nothing to the war effort. Especially if their is little cost in doing so, combined with pressure domestic and foreign. Much of Africa and Latin America might be in this category. In my opinion the best option for the CRINK countries is to avoid war, integrate and perhaps try to shape world insitution formal and informal.

  16. The Russians know that the USA, like the UK, is a by-word for treachery. If Russia joined in a great racist ‘Clash of Civilizations’ war against China, if China is defeated and vivisected, Russia would be next. Of course the Atlanticist Fifth Columnists in Russia might like being mini-Yeltsins overseeing the further pillage of the country, and, before he goes, Putin MUST liquidate that tendency, before we find out whether his successor can keep them in check. They can all join Navalny, counting trees in the taiga.

    • Agree: Aedib
  17. @216
    Most American conservatives are foolishly taking the bait vis-a-vis China.

    Rather than blaming:

    -The tech companies
    -weak/corrupt GOP pols
    -The universities
    -The news media
    -Woke celebrities

    They are all banging on about "The CCP" as the font of evil, one might call it "The Anti-Semitism of fools"

    Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain

    Well, the ‘Free World’ does 100% ideological totalitarianism and absolute intellectual authoritarianism through a media that no longer allows the expression of a scintilla of dissent from the Imperial narrative, very well. The sight of presstitute vermin who operate this brainwashing system declaring themselves ‘truth-tellers’ has long gone past the emetic to the downright hilarious.

  18. @Passer by
    On the issue of growing Russia - China cooperation.

    Chinese tourists reach 30 % of tourists in Russia.

    Joint moon space station prepared by Russia/China.

    Russia builds nuclear power plants in China.

    China is involved in building massive 14 billion $ chemical plant near SP.

    Russia-China trade set to double by 2024.

    New bridges being built between Russia and China.

    Russia prepares Power of Siberia 2 and 3 pipelines to China.

    Russia works to replace Australia for coal exports to China.

    Russia increases food exports to China.

    China produces russian vaccines.

    Russia and China work on Meridian Pan-Asian highway.

    Huawei to work on 5G in Russia.

    Russia joins BRI.

    Yuan to reach 30 % of certain russian reserves in place of US dollar.

    Russia - China trade mostly bypasses dollar.

    Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain

    Does Russia have iron ore? Replace Austfailia’s iron ore bounty with another source and the nassty, racist, dystopia will collapse into a heap.

    • Replies: @for-the-record
    @Mulga Mumblebrain

    Does Russia have iron ore?

    World iron ore reserves:

    1. Australia -- 48 billion tonnes

    2. Brazil -- 29 billion tonnes

    3. Russia -- 25 billion tonnes

    https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/world-iron-ore-reserves-countries/

  19. @AP
    Ultimately if it becomes China-Russia-Iran-NK-Iran vs. everyone else, the former lose. CRINK would have to bring some other powers - such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world - on board to really become competitive. I'm not predicting whether or not it can be done, but if it isn't done, the West determines the world's fate. The best CRINK can hope for is voluntary self-destruction.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Barbarossa, @Felix Keverich, @AltanBakshi, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Blinky Bill, @Dreadilk, @Rattus Norwegius

    I guess it’s time for you to surrender to the homosex alliance, then.

    • LOL: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @utu
    @Daniel Chieh

    Don't despair, POW's will be treated lovingly by the homosex alliance. There will be no Great Escape attempts. You will love it.

  20. @Triteleia Laxa
    I don't understand why the US isn't friendly with Russia. I can only suppose that they are hoping that something favourable for them happens when Putin leaves power/dies. I am not sure they are wrong, but it seems a haphazard plan.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Felix Keverich, @Showmethereal

    Arab terrorists have lost their zing, and so it’s back to the Cold War. We need enemies to define ourselves to keep the anger externalized as much as possible.

    It’s always been striking to me that all the countries on the U.S. “bad list” are ones who are not on board with American financial plans. Putin does seem to be intent on doing things his own way and not bowing to the American economic system, which puts him in opposition to “our interests”.

    The neo-con barb is always that Russia is a “gas station with a foreign policy”. I suppose the counter-barb could be that the U.S. is a “bank with a foreign policy”.

    Russia’s behavior would not make amicable coexistence impossible from a sane multi-polar worldview where sovereign countries are permitted to have independent national interests, but from the position of hegemony any deviation is intolerable.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Barbarossa

    It seems to help the US shore up their support and consolidate in Eastern Europe.

    , @Wency
    @Barbarossa


    It’s always been striking to me that all the countries on the U.S. “bad list” are ones who are not on board with American financial plans.
     
    Surely the US social program -- i.e., the Rainbow Flag -- has something to do with this as well.

    Sometimes people will point to places like Saudi Arabia as a counterpoint, but this is misleading: USG (and more broadly, the Cathedral) is prepared to tolerate acts of social conservativism in nonwhite countries, but white countries must always be converging towards American cultural standards or face pariah status. This is at least a decades-long tradition -- during the Cold War, Franco received continuing harsh criticism for acts of repression that were incredibly mild by the standards of America's nonwhite Cold War allies. And the truth is that, under American pressure, even Franco was slowly liberalizing the country throughout his rule.
  21. @AP
    Ultimately if it becomes China-Russia-Iran-NK-Iran vs. everyone else, the former lose. CRINK would have to bring some other powers - such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world - on board to really become competitive. I'm not predicting whether or not it can be done, but if it isn't done, the West determines the world's fate. The best CRINK can hope for is voluntary self-destruction.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Barbarossa, @Felix Keverich, @AltanBakshi, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Blinky Bill, @Dreadilk, @Rattus Norwegius

    That is why China in particular is playing a long game; letting the U.S. implode while building economic ties and influence abroad.
    The whole point is to avoid a head to head confrontation, hopefully entirely, but for as long as possible. China’s position is on track to only grow stronger over time while the U.S. diminishes. As that happens more countries will see which side their bread is buttered on.

    That’s not a value judgement on Chinese ascendancy necessarily, as I’m guessing that trading the U.S. hegemony for China’s may be jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire. Ideally, China will be somewhat constrained internationally.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Barbarossa

    China and Russia are where Germany and Russia were in 1905. Germany was getting stronger and stronger and Russia was recovering from the setback of war with Japan and also getting stronger due to reforms. But Russia did not ally itself with Germany against the West then. Will Russia ally itself with Germany=China and resist the pull of the West this time? Will China resist being sucked into war unlike Germany in 1914? China is too thin skinned about Taiwan so she is very vulnerable to provocations there.

    Anyway, I do not believe there will be war any time soon and hopefully never. But if China decides to move against Taiwan there will be war that the US will not refuse.

    Replies: @Rattus Norwegius

  22. @Triteleia Laxa
    I don't understand why the US isn't friendly with Russia. I can only suppose that they are hoping that something favourable for them happens when Putin leaves power/dies. I am not sure they are wrong, but it seems a haphazard plan.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Felix Keverich, @Showmethereal

    You won’t understand anything about American culture and politics until you take into account overwhelming power of Jewry in that country. American “Jewish community” hails from the former Russian empire, and these people convinced themselves that they’ve been wronged by Russia. It’s a cornerstone of their tribal identity so to speak, and that means they are going to use the USA to exact revenge.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Felix Keverich


    You won’t understand anything about American culture and politics until you take into account overwhelming power of Jewry in that country. American “Jewish community” hails from the former Russian empire, and these people convinced themselves that they’ve been wronged by Russia. It’s a cornerstone of their tribal identity so to speak, and that means they are going to use the USA to exact revenge.
     
    Not only is this never how foreign policy works, but I see no reason to believe a single part of it.

    Most Jews I meet, really like Russian culture, for ancestral reasons. They also have much more reason to dislike Germany, but the US gets on fine with Germany.

    As I said, there is no reason to believe any part of your "explanation". Pure projection from you as an individual, I suspect.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin, @Felix Keverich, @Radicalcenter, @Felix Keverich

  23. There will be no answer to this question because I am convinced that there will be no armed conflict between China and the US, just as there will be no armed conflict between Russia and the US, because such a conflict would exterminate all mankind, and then there would be no point in taking sides.

    The diplomat said that because he doesn’t want to make it easier to unify the West. But we do know that it won’t be the end of mankind. So eventually there has to be such a commitment.

    there are almost no sources of friction in the Sino-Russian relation

    There’s India.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    @reiner Tor

    China is not at war with India, and Russia is not allied with it by any means. Lately, India increasingly behaves like some Eastern European country, with rising svidomism at home and intense sucking of American dick. Russian arms exports to India declined precipitously as India switches to Western weapons. Most importantly, India's elites appear to believe that good things will come their way from sucking American dick, so we should probably brace ourselves for India becoming another ZOG colony down the line.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @DNS

  24. Its silly to believe that China will take over Siberia. They can’t even maintain a population in Northeast China. I hear that all you see are old people when you visit the cities in Northeast China.

    • Replies: @angmoh
    @Abelard Lindsey

    Russia isn't doing such a great job populating Siberia / RFE either.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    , @il_palazzo
    @Abelard Lindsey

    I am a guy from Europe living in Shenyang in North East China, working at a kindergarten chock full of small kids, living in a 2000 people gated community like most Chinese, wading through kids every day, while passing the kindergarten on the grounds on the way to work. My 4 km commute I make by bicycle past two elementary schools and two high schools and another kindergarten. I use the bicycle because at 8:00 in the morning, the streets are clogged up with cars of parents taking their kids to school. That is an 8 block radius I am talking about.

    But apart from that, only old people, yes

  25. @Daniel Chieh
    @AP

    I guess it's time for you to surrender to the homosex alliance, then.

    Replies: @utu

    Don’t despair, POW’s will be treated lovingly by the homosex alliance. There will be no Great Escape attempts. You will love it.

  26. These schizoid oscillations in the Official Narrative should not much chance our preexisting probability curve on the origins of Corona

    I don’t care for the oscillations, and have privately argued for the possibility of a lab leak theory for a long time. But I thought it was a natural virus which perhaps escaped from the lab. To be honest utu actually shared some links about gain of function research in Wuhan a long time ago (I think sometime last year), but I was either lazy or too dismissive of it to look into it thoroughly.

    However, Nicholas Wade’s article in The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists was by far the most detailed explanation that I have read, and probably no such detailed article has even been written before. I don’t think it’s possible to argue with the points raised by the article, covid is most likely not a natural zoonotic virus, rather it’s a virus out of a lab.

    Another interesting point raised by Wade was the fact that gain of function research in the Wuhan lab was financed by the Americans.

    the much more relevant question being, “why now?”, and “what are the Western elites planning?”

    Well obviously Trump’s gone. The American establishment and deep state have mostly tried to avoid raising this question in public partly to spite Trump and partly because of the awkward questions that could be raised about American funding. Fauci was also considered a hero standing up to Trump. He was not going to be attacked as long as Trump was around. Similarly, no one (almost no one, at any rate) was going to affirm Trump’s points about the Chinese Virus or the Wuhan Virus.

    It took a few months for this mentality to go. And then the awkward questions about the American funding and sacrificing Fauci are being figured out right now, they will manage to get there soon enough.

    I think that we in the reality based community need to update our priors based on new information. I know that it’s not technically new, since the information has been around for a long time, but, embarrassing as it is to admit it, it was new to me. So I have to accept it.

    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @The Big Red Scary
    @reiner Tor

    While a lab leak is a priori plausible, Wade's article was not so very convincing. The basic points were that covid has an uncommon codon "CGG" for furin cleavage, making it more infectious, and that the Chinese first noticed there was a problem in Wuhan. As for the first point, it's neither here nor there, since "CGG" is already common in humans, as well as other mammals, so it's exactly what you'd expect to see for an adaptive mutation, whether spontaneous or engineered. As for first being noticed in Wuhan, yes, that is suspicious, given that gain of function research was being done there.

    On the other hand, it is also consistent with other hypotheses, such as coincidence and Muricans dunnit.

    While I grant that P(lab leak|first noticed in Wuhan) > P(mutation spontaneous), gain of function research is done in a whole lot of places, for example the small American city Madison, Wisconsin:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research

    It's surprisingly difficult to find a list of places where gain of function research is done in the US or Europe. As a rule of thumb, I think that among cities where gain of function research is carried out, the smaller the city in which a new virus is first noticed, the more likely it is that it's a leak. Wuhan however is 11 million people.

    Also, I grant that P(lab leak|first noticed in Wuhan) > P(Muricans dunnit), since we know of more examples of lab leaks than bioterror attacks, which even Muricans can understand are likely to have unintended consequences.

    So in short, what we really have to go on is that covid-19 was first identified in Wuhan, and that Wuhan, like many places, is the site of gain in function research. Are there other relevant facts?

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    , @Sean
    @reiner Tor


    For the coming battle we need to transition from COVID-19 detectives to CCP-Hunters. Cleaning out the vermin infestation of CCP agents in the U.S. will go part and parcel with bringing down the CCP in Beijing. Search their Tweets, link with other sites, associates and relations. pic.twitter.com/yUHJudR3S3— Dr. Lawrence Sellin (@LawrenceSellin) June 18, 2021
     

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  27. utu says:
    @Barbarossa
    @AP

    That is why China in particular is playing a long game; letting the U.S. implode while building economic ties and influence abroad.
    The whole point is to avoid a head to head confrontation, hopefully entirely, but for as long as possible. China's position is on track to only grow stronger over time while the U.S. diminishes. As that happens more countries will see which side their bread is buttered on.

    That's not a value judgement on Chinese ascendancy necessarily, as I'm guessing that trading the U.S. hegemony for China's may be jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire. Ideally, China will be somewhat constrained internationally.

    Replies: @utu

    China and Russia are where Germany and Russia were in 1905. Germany was getting stronger and stronger and Russia was recovering from the setback of war with Japan and also getting stronger due to reforms. But Russia did not ally itself with Germany against the West then. Will Russia ally itself with Germany=China and resist the pull of the West this time? Will China resist being sucked into war unlike Germany in 1914? China is too thin skinned about Taiwan so she is very vulnerable to provocations there.

    Anyway, I do not believe there will be war any time soon and hopefully never. But if China decides to move against Taiwan there will be war that the US will not refuse.

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @Rattus Norwegius
    @utu

    The Russian Federation of today is weaker relative to it's peers than the Russian Empire of the 1910s.

  28. World wars are the ultimate way to reshuffle the strategic balance for the elites (wherever they are) to rotate geographically while maintaining their grasp in power. It has been like that in the European world (and after the 18th century the World-System). It was at first the royal families and aristocrats, then the Jews, Freemasons and Robber Barons; American-Soviet Imperialists; multicultural globalists. It is right now shifting to the Politburo of the CCP and the WEF. This dynamic will exist as long as the liberal order continues (and China actually upholds some tenets, mostly economic, of the order).

    It doesn’t matter if you’re conscripted into the Chinese army, or the US’s, or one of the US vassals’; or living on whose soil. You are a dispensable pawn of the World-System, as with everyone else, including the elites, since ideologies rule the world. The only realistic way to even try breaking free of the cycle, as Dugin sees it, is to pick the fourth way of society and politics. (You can of course look up to the China-Russian strategic partnership, as Dugin often does, but that will only be relieving the symptoms)

  29. @reiner Tor

    There will be no answer to this question because I am convinced that there will be no armed conflict between China and the US, just as there will be no armed conflict between Russia and the US, because such a conflict would exterminate all mankind, and then there would be no point in taking sides.
     
    The diplomat said that because he doesn’t want to make it easier to unify the West. But we do know that it won’t be the end of mankind. So eventually there has to be such a commitment.

    there are almost no sources of friction in the Sino-Russian relation
     
    There’s India.

    Replies: @Felix Keverich

    China is not at war with India, and Russia is not allied with it by any means. Lately, India increasingly behaves like some Eastern European country, with rising svidomism at home and intense sucking of American dick. Russian arms exports to India declined precipitously as India switches to Western weapons. Most importantly, India’s elites appear to believe that good things will come their way from sucking American dick, so we should probably brace ourselves for India becoming another ZOG colony down the line.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @Felix Keverich

    You are likely correct, but in the short term it’s still an issue. I think when there was this melee combat in the Himalaya, the Russians were ready to send weapons to India quickly, which was not something China wanted.

    Replies: @showmethereal

    , @DNS
    @Felix Keverich


    Russian arms exports to India declined precipitously as India switches to Western weapons.
     
    The proportion of imports from Russia has gone down since 10-15 years ago but in absolute terms the amount has been larger than before, due to an increased defence budget. Add to this the fact that India has resisted US pressure to not buy the S-400 battery. I suppose this is just to diversify imports and not be reliant on one single source, especially as India suspects Russia may side with China or aid it passively by not selling weapons to India in the case of any future conflict, although this is unlikely IMO.

    American weapons purchases also come with a lot of strings attached, as Pakistan knows, so Russia will remain India's main weapons provider.

    India is world’s second-largest arms importer


    Russia accounted for 58% of Indian arms imports in 2014–18, compared with 76% in 2009-13. Israel, the U.S. and France all increased their arms exports to India in 2014-18. However, the Russian share in Indian imports is likely to go up sharply during the next five-year period as India signed several big-ticket deals recently, and more are in the pipeline. These include S-400 air defence systems, four stealth frigates, AK-203 assault rifles, a second nuclear attack submarine on lease, and deals for Kamov-226T utility helicopters, Mi-17 helicopters and short-range air defence systems. The report noted that despite the long-standing conflict between India and Pakistan, arms imports decreased for both countries in 2014-18 compared with 2009-13.

     

    On a side note, it seems Russia halted sales of the S-400 to China, perhaps because unlike the Indians, the Chinese are competent enough to reverse-engineer it.

    Replies: @showmethereal

  30. @Felix Keverich
    @reiner Tor

    China is not at war with India, and Russia is not allied with it by any means. Lately, India increasingly behaves like some Eastern European country, with rising svidomism at home and intense sucking of American dick. Russian arms exports to India declined precipitously as India switches to Western weapons. Most importantly, India's elites appear to believe that good things will come their way from sucking American dick, so we should probably brace ourselves for India becoming another ZOG colony down the line.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @DNS

    You are likely correct, but in the short term it’s still an issue. I think when there was this melee combat in the Himalaya, the Russians were ready to send weapons to India quickly, which was not something China wanted.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @reiner Tor

    "the Russians were ready to send weapons to India quickly, which was not something China wanted"

    Not true. The Russians warned the Indians that the US was hoping to stoke fear and to cool things off. The Indian FM then told Russia effectively to mind its business. The western and Indian media made up a story about Russia expediting S400's to India. it was nonsense. To this day they still don't have them. Meanwhile Russia already delivered China it's S400's and for a lower price than India. Then Russia offered to sell Pakistan more weapons than the helicopters they did a few years back.

  31. @AP
    Ultimately if it becomes China-Russia-Iran-NK-Iran vs. everyone else, the former lose. CRINK would have to bring some other powers - such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world - on board to really become competitive. I'm not predicting whether or not it can be done, but if it isn't done, the West determines the world's fate. The best CRINK can hope for is voluntary self-destruction.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Barbarossa, @Felix Keverich, @AltanBakshi, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Blinky Bill, @Dreadilk, @Rattus Norwegius

    China brings Myanmar and Pakistan to the table. Iran has Yemen and Syria. Belarus and the Ukraine are bound to reunite with Russia sooner rather than later.

    In Latin America we can count on Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua, placing mainland US in the range of our cruise missiles. It’s a coalition.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Felix Keverich


    China brings Myanmar and Pakistan to the table. Iran has Yemen and Syria. Belarus and the Ukraine are bound to reunite with Russia sooner rather than later.

    In Latin America we can count on Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua.
     

    Let me help you Felix with you based comment.


    China brings Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Nepal and Pakistan to the table. Iran has Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon (Hezbollah grows stronger with every generation). Belarus and the Ukraine are bound to reunite with Russia sooner rather than later and also has the support of Serbia and Armenia.

    In Latin America we can count on Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua and now Peru.

    With Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan working together all of Central Asia will come along for the ride Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and eventually even Afghanistan.

    There is also the Southern African bloc of South Africa, Zimbabwe, Angola and Mozambique.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  32. One thing looks certain, at least from an American point of view, the venture to open things up and help nurture China back in the 70’s has blossomed into America’s worst nightmare. The naivety of US policymakers over time is palpable. How US policymakers watched China’s meteoric rise over time without ever contemplating that at onetime in the future it would poise itself to become the US’ main rival in world affairs is tragic. That there never seemed to be a ‘plan B” with China shows how shortsighted American diplomacy was, favoring short term profit over long term containment. It looks like a rocky road is ahead for everybody involved.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    @Mr. Hack

    US policymakers were convinced that "democracy" goes hand in hand with capitalism, therefore all capitalist countries will inevitably accept US hegemony. Similar to how USSR felt that China owed it deference during 1950s. After all it was the Soviet Union that first enabled China to industrialise and build nukes.

    , @reiner Tor
    @Mr. Hack

    I think supporting China in the 1970s made some sense. China was weaker than the USSR, and thus helped keeping it in check with little investment on the part of the Americans. By the 1990s this no longer made sense. China had adopted a market economy, while the USSR collapsed, meaning that Russia now had a much smaller potential than China.

  33. @Mr. Hack
    One thing looks certain, at least from an American point of view, the venture to open things up and help nurture China back in the 70's has blossomed into America's worst nightmare. The naivety of US policymakers over time is palpable. How US policymakers watched China's meteoric rise over time without ever contemplating that at onetime in the future it would poise itself to become the US' main rival in world affairs is tragic. That there never seemed to be a 'plan B" with China shows how shortsighted American diplomacy was, favoring short term profit over long term containment. It looks like a rocky road is ahead for everybody involved.

    Replies: @Felix Keverich, @reiner Tor

    US policymakers were convinced that “democracy” goes hand in hand with capitalism, therefore all capitalist countries will inevitably accept US hegemony. Similar to how USSR felt that China owed it deference during 1950s. After all it was the Soviet Union that first enabled China to industrialise and build nukes.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
  34. @Mr. Hack
    One thing looks certain, at least from an American point of view, the venture to open things up and help nurture China back in the 70's has blossomed into America's worst nightmare. The naivety of US policymakers over time is palpable. How US policymakers watched China's meteoric rise over time without ever contemplating that at onetime in the future it would poise itself to become the US' main rival in world affairs is tragic. That there never seemed to be a 'plan B" with China shows how shortsighted American diplomacy was, favoring short term profit over long term containment. It looks like a rocky road is ahead for everybody involved.

    Replies: @Felix Keverich, @reiner Tor

    I think supporting China in the 1970s made some sense. China was weaker than the USSR, and thus helped keeping it in check with little investment on the part of the Americans. By the 1990s this no longer made sense. China had adopted a market economy, while the USSR collapsed, meaning that Russia now had a much smaller potential than China.

    • Agree: Mr. Hack
  35. The idea that the US can turn Russia against China by being a bit less hostile to Russia is, of course, absurd. Even if the US went further, there is simply nothing the US can offer that would be of such great value to Russia that it might endanger its good partnership with China for better relations with unreliable Western countries.

    I also have doubts about the narrative from the US (neocon) side that hostility towards Russia is a distraction that hinders the US concentrating on „containing“ China. It may well be that some lower-rank neocon thinktank people are hostile towards Russia for reasons that have nothing to do with China. But I suppose the more intelligent neocons think differently. Their goal is that the US remains the number 1 superpower, and they know:
    – The chances of stopping the rise of China are extremely slim.
    – There is no chance of strangulating China economically, as long as it has good relations with Russia.
    – The interests of Russia and China are naturally aligned to a large degree, and Western countries have nothing to offer to Russia that is so valuable that it might plausibly lead Russia to support a Western project to strangulate China economically.

    Of course, there are many stupid neocons (many are often in the media), but I think there must be more intelligent neocons who understand this, and I suppose there are intelligent neocons with quite some influence behind the scene.

    The most plausible conclusion from the points above is that the best option for the unlikely goal of stopping the rise of China would be a collapse of Russia and installing a pro-Western dictatorship (it would have to be a dictatorship because it would have to do things that are in the interest of Western countries – from the perspectiveof neocons – and contrary to the interests not only of China, but also the ones of Russia).

    Although its economy is much smaller, in case of increased Western hostility, good relations with Russia are important for China. Russia has many important resources. Western countries might disrupt sea routes, but they cannot block passage between Russia and China. Furthermore, in case of extreme nuclear blackmail, it can be good to have good relations with the only country that has a nuclear arsenal that is comparable (and in some respects superior) to the one of the US.

    I think it is quite likely that many of the hostile actions of Western countries against Russia and stoking up conflicts in neighboring countries of Russia are motivated by the hope that a collapse of Russia that could help installing an anti-Chinese and pro-Western dictatorship in Russia, probably the only chance to keep the US as the number 1 superpower in the next decades.

    Today, that looks, of course, rather implausible, but around 2014, there were plenty of comments that Russia would probably soon collapse.

    Of course, Western hostility towards Russia has strengthened the Russian-Chinese partnership. But since the chances to turn Russia against China with peaceful Western incentives are non-existing, anyway, I suppose that many neocons still cling to the hope that Western countries can achieve a collapse of Russia and install an anti-Chinese dictatorship in Russia, even if the chances for that are also very slim.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @Adrian E.

    Actually Americans have something very enticing to offer, Ukraine and the end of sanctions. Russia's goal is not China as pre eminent power, but getting back it's political sphere, which is former USSR, such offer would be quite tempting... But I don't believe that Americans are pragmatic enough to do such decisions.

    Reiner Tor you are correct with India, and some other countries which have very good relations with Russia, but not so good with China, like Vietnam. Still I don't believe that India will ever be a good ally for the West. India is a true democracy and quite a volatile or mercurial country, surprisingly inward looking and self contained, if I am using right words. American alignment is only possible as long as BJP keeps its political coalition in the power. Congress party and various Socialist parties are very strong there, especially in the key states, and both factions are true friends of Russia. Actually I have never ever met such plurality of viewpoints and opinions as in India, there are Dalits who vehemently hate Gandhi and his legacy, there are commies, there are traditionalists and fundamentalists, Sufis and Deobandis, it's unbelievable how truly democratic Indians are in the end, and always ready to riot in masses when they feel wronged, it's the Europeans and Americans of modern era who are the conformist cattle. The future of democracy lies in India!

    Replies: @Agathoklis, @Triteleia Laxa

  36. @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Passer by

    Does Russia have iron ore? Replace Austfailia's iron ore bounty with another source and the nassty, racist, dystopia will collapse into a heap.

    Replies: @for-the-record

    Does Russia have iron ore?

    World iron ore reserves:

    1. Australia — 48 billion tonnes

    2. Brazil — 29 billion tonnes

    3. Russia — 25 billion tonnes

    https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/world-iron-ore-reserves-countries/

  37. @reiner Tor

    These schizoid oscillations in the Official Narrative should not much chance our preexisting probability curve on the origins of Corona
     
    I don’t care for the oscillations, and have privately argued for the possibility of a lab leak theory for a long time. But I thought it was a natural virus which perhaps escaped from the lab. To be honest utu actually shared some links about gain of function research in Wuhan a long time ago (I think sometime last year), but I was either lazy or too dismissive of it to look into it thoroughly.

    However, Nicholas Wade’s article in The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists was by far the most detailed explanation that I have read, and probably no such detailed article has even been written before. I don’t think it’s possible to argue with the points raised by the article, covid is most likely not a natural zoonotic virus, rather it’s a virus out of a lab.

    Another interesting point raised by Wade was the fact that gain of function research in the Wuhan lab was financed by the Americans.

    the much more relevant question being, “why now?”, and “what are the Western elites planning?”
     
    Well obviously Trump’s gone. The American establishment and deep state have mostly tried to avoid raising this question in public partly to spite Trump and partly because of the awkward questions that could be raised about American funding. Fauci was also considered a hero standing up to Trump. He was not going to be attacked as long as Trump was around. Similarly, no one (almost no one, at any rate) was going to affirm Trump’s points about the Chinese Virus or the Wuhan Virus.

    It took a few months for this mentality to go. And then the awkward questions about the American funding and sacrificing Fauci are being figured out right now, they will manage to get there soon enough.

    I think that we in the reality based community need to update our priors based on new information. I know that it’s not technically new, since the information has been around for a long time, but, embarrassing as it is to admit it, it was new to me. So I have to accept it.

    Replies: @The Big Red Scary, @Sean

    While a lab leak is a priori plausible, Wade’s article was not so very convincing. The basic points were that covid has an uncommon codon “CGG” for furin cleavage, making it more infectious, and that the Chinese first noticed there was a problem in Wuhan. As for the first point, it’s neither here nor there, since “CGG” is already common in humans, as well as other mammals, so it’s exactly what you’d expect to see for an adaptive mutation, whether spontaneous or engineered. As for first being noticed in Wuhan, yes, that is suspicious, given that gain of function research was being done there.

    On the other hand, it is also consistent with other hypotheses, such as coincidence and Muricans dunnit.

    While I grant that P(lab leak|first noticed in Wuhan) > P(mutation spontaneous), gain of function research is done in a whole lot of places, for example the small American city Madison, Wisconsin:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research

    It’s surprisingly difficult to find a list of places where gain of function research is done in the US or Europe. As a rule of thumb, I think that among cities where gain of function research is carried out, the smaller the city in which a new virus is first noticed, the more likely it is that it’s a leak. Wuhan however is 11 million people.

    Also, I grant that P(lab leak|first noticed in Wuhan) > P(Muricans dunnit), since we know of more examples of lab leaks than bioterror attacks, which even Muricans can understand are likely to have unintended consequences.

    So in short, what we really have to go on is that covid-19 was first identified in Wuhan, and that Wuhan, like many places, is the site of gain in function research. Are there other relevant facts?

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @The Big Red Scary

    The CGG-CGG double codon count not get there from a human, because before November 2019 (actually early December) there is no sign of it circulating among humans, and by that time it was a fully fledged human virus, at least it didn’t really mutate much, unlike after a real zoonotic event. They have checked thousands of blood samples in Wuhan, and actually probably hundreds of thousands of blood samples across the globe (they found the blood samples of an Italian boy hospitalized in December 2019, they must’ve been looking for traces of it around the globe), so it certainly looks like it wasn’t present in humans before fall 2019. And it’s very strange that it didn’t mutate into variants early on in the epidemic. Not so strange if it underwent serial passage in humanized transgenic mice.

    I struggle to understand the relevance of the size of the city. Sure it only depends on the distance from the original source. Wuhan is over a thousand kilometers away from the bat caves. So presumably a bat infected another animal, which then got to Wuhan. Whether Wuhan is a big or a small city is neither here nor there, except it actually seems less likely to happen in a bigger city, because animals are less likely to enter a big city, and even wet markets are more likely to be better regulated there, they also constitute a smaller portion of the food supply. So actually while the chances of each individual small town are smaller, as long as more people live in smaller cities or towns than in megacities, a natural zoonotic epidemic is actually way more likely to start in a small town than in a huge megalopolis. So in my reading the fact that it actually started in a city of eleven million people is actually an argument against the natural zoonotic origin.

    So:

    - not present in humans before late 2019
    - but still no variants early on
    - started a thousand miles from the bat caves
    - but a few hundred yards from the virus lab
    - where gain of function research took place
    - then there is the strange furin cleavage site with the double CGG-CHG codon
    - the scientists denouncing the lab leak theory the most aggressively were (or would be) personally implicated in it

    That’s not a weak argument at all, the natural zoonotic case is much weaker here.

  38. While a lab leak is a priori plausible, Wade’s article was not so very convincing. The basic points were that covid has an uncommon codon “CGG” for furin cleavage, making it more infectious, and that the Chinese first noticed there was a problem in Wuhan. As for the first point, it’s neither here nor there, since “CGG” is already common in humans, as well as other mammals, so it’s exactly what you’d expect to see for an adaptive mutation, whether spontaneous or engineered. As for first being noticed in Wuhan, yes, that is suspicious, given that gain of function research was being done there.

    On the other hand, it is also consistent with other hypotheses, such as coincidence and Muricans dunnit.

    While I grant that P(lab leak|first noticed in Wuhan) > P(mutation spontaneous), gain of function research is done in a whole lot of places, for example the small American city Madison, Wisconsin:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research

    It’s surprisingly difficult to find a list of places where gain of function research is done in the US or Europe. As a rule of thumb, I think that among cities where gain of function research is carried out, the smaller the city in which a new virus is first noticed, the more likely it is that it’s a leak. Wuhan however is 11 million people.

    Also, I grant that P(lab leak|first noticed in Wuhan) > P(Muricans dunnit), since we know of more examples of lab leaks than bioterror attacks, which even Muricans can understand are likely to have unintended consequences.

    So in short, what we really have to go on is that covid-19 was first identified in Wuhan, and that Wuhan, like many places, is the site of gain in function research. Are there other relevant facts?

    New theory: It really was Muricans who dunnit, as a last ditch effort to demonize China by showing that

    Chinks are the real whites.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @The Big Red Scary


    coincidence and Muricans dunnit
     
    Yes, Muricans dunnit is certainly possible (and looks more possible based on Wade’s article, I wrote before how), but my original comment was about how it convinced me about lab created origin (as opposed to natural virus escaping from a lab). Coincidence is certainly possible, but that’s not the way to bet.
  39. @AP
    Ultimately if it becomes China-Russia-Iran-NK-Iran vs. everyone else, the former lose. CRINK would have to bring some other powers - such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world - on board to really become competitive. I'm not predicting whether or not it can be done, but if it isn't done, the West determines the world's fate. The best CRINK can hope for is voluntary self-destruction.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Barbarossa, @Felix Keverich, @AltanBakshi, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Blinky Bill, @Dreadilk, @Rattus Norwegius

    But its not them against everyone else, maybe in your deluded imagination things are so simple. World is not just Russo-Chinese alliance vs. Five Eyes+EU+The rest, but there are growing and emerging countries like Philippines, Burma, Indonesia, Vietnam and others which are not anymore as growing but still strategically extremely important like Pakistan, Turkey and Malaysia, none of those countries are truly in the Western camp, nor they are ready to fight for the West, India and Bangladesh included.

    You are fool if you think that Latin America or Arab world is the key to victory, they are more or less passive bystanders, if they have some value in the future it’s just as pawns. Anyway are allies like Saudi Arabia and Egypt truly smart investments in the longer run?

    • Replies: @AP
    @AltanBakshi


    But its not them against everyone else, maybe in your deluded imagination things are so simple.
     
    I wrote "if"

    Nothing you wrote contradicts what I wrote.

    I wrote "CRINK would have to bring some other powers – such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world"

    Before writing about someone's "deluded imagination" I suggest you read more carefully.

    If Anglo World + EU + Israel + Japan keep SE Asia and India away from China-Russia-Iran-NK, then the former group wins.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

  40. @The Big Red Scary
    @reiner Tor

    While a lab leak is a priori plausible, Wade's article was not so very convincing. The basic points were that covid has an uncommon codon "CGG" for furin cleavage, making it more infectious, and that the Chinese first noticed there was a problem in Wuhan. As for the first point, it's neither here nor there, since "CGG" is already common in humans, as well as other mammals, so it's exactly what you'd expect to see for an adaptive mutation, whether spontaneous or engineered. As for first being noticed in Wuhan, yes, that is suspicious, given that gain of function research was being done there.

    On the other hand, it is also consistent with other hypotheses, such as coincidence and Muricans dunnit.

    While I grant that P(lab leak|first noticed in Wuhan) > P(mutation spontaneous), gain of function research is done in a whole lot of places, for example the small American city Madison, Wisconsin:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research

    It's surprisingly difficult to find a list of places where gain of function research is done in the US or Europe. As a rule of thumb, I think that among cities where gain of function research is carried out, the smaller the city in which a new virus is first noticed, the more likely it is that it's a leak. Wuhan however is 11 million people.

    Also, I grant that P(lab leak|first noticed in Wuhan) > P(Muricans dunnit), since we know of more examples of lab leaks than bioterror attacks, which even Muricans can understand are likely to have unintended consequences.

    So in short, what we really have to go on is that covid-19 was first identified in Wuhan, and that Wuhan, like many places, is the site of gain in function research. Are there other relevant facts?

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    The CGG-CGG double codon count not get there from a human, because before November 2019 (actually early December) there is no sign of it circulating among humans, and by that time it was a fully fledged human virus, at least it didn’t really mutate much, unlike after a real zoonotic event. They have checked thousands of blood samples in Wuhan, and actually probably hundreds of thousands of blood samples across the globe (they found the blood samples of an Italian boy hospitalized in December 2019, they must’ve been looking for traces of it around the globe), so it certainly looks like it wasn’t present in humans before fall 2019. And it’s very strange that it didn’t mutate into variants early on in the epidemic. Not so strange if it underwent serial passage in humanized transgenic mice.

    I struggle to understand the relevance of the size of the city. Sure it only depends on the distance from the original source. Wuhan is over a thousand kilometers away from the bat caves. So presumably a bat infected another animal, which then got to Wuhan. Whether Wuhan is a big or a small city is neither here nor there, except it actually seems less likely to happen in a bigger city, because animals are less likely to enter a big city, and even wet markets are more likely to be better regulated there, they also constitute a smaller portion of the food supply. So actually while the chances of each individual small town are smaller, as long as more people live in smaller cities or towns than in megacities, a natural zoonotic epidemic is actually way more likely to start in a small town than in a huge megalopolis. So in my reading the fact that it actually started in a city of eleven million people is actually an argument against the natural zoonotic origin.

    So:

    – not present in humans before late 2019
    – but still no variants early on
    – started a thousand miles from the bat caves
    – but a few hundred yards from the virus lab
    – where gain of function research took place
    – then there is the strange furin cleavage site with the double CGG-CHG codon
    – the scientists denouncing the lab leak theory the most aggressively were (or would be) personally implicated in it

    That’s not a weak argument at all, the natural zoonotic case is much weaker here.

  41. @The Big Red Scary
    While a lab leak is a priori plausible, Wade's article was not so very convincing. The basic points were that covid has an uncommon codon "CGG" for furin cleavage, making it more infectious, and that the Chinese first noticed there was a problem in Wuhan. As for the first point, it's neither here nor there, since "CGG" is already common in humans, as well as other mammals, so it's exactly what you'd expect to see for an adaptive mutation, whether spontaneous or engineered. As for first being noticed in Wuhan, yes, that is suspicious, given that gain of function research was being done there.

    On the other hand, it is also consistent with other hypotheses, such as coincidence and Muricans dunnit.

    While I grant that P(lab leak|first noticed in Wuhan) > P(mutation spontaneous), gain of function research is done in a whole lot of places, for example the small American city Madison, Wisconsin:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gain_of_function_research

    It's surprisingly difficult to find a list of places where gain of function research is done in the US or Europe. As a rule of thumb, I think that among cities where gain of function research is carried out, the smaller the city in which a new virus is first noticed, the more likely it is that it's a leak. Wuhan however is 11 million people.

    Also, I grant that P(lab leak|first noticed in Wuhan) > P(Muricans dunnit), since we know of more examples of lab leaks than bioterror attacks, which even Muricans can understand are likely to have unintended consequences.

    So in short, what we really have to go on is that covid-19 was first identified in Wuhan, and that Wuhan, like many places, is the site of gain in function research. Are there other relevant facts?

    New theory: It really was Muricans who dunnit, as a last ditch effort to demonize China by showing that

    Chinks are the real whites.
     

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    coincidence and Muricans dunnit

    Yes, Muricans dunnit is certainly possible (and looks more possible based on Wade’s article, I wrote before how), but my original comment was about how it convinced me about lab created origin (as opposed to natural virus escaping from a lab). Coincidence is certainly possible, but that’s not the way to bet.

  42. @Felix Keverich
    @Triteleia Laxa

    You won't understand anything about American culture and politics until you take into account overwhelming power of Jewry in that country. American "Jewish community" hails from the former Russian empire, and these people convinced themselves that they've been wronged by Russia. It's a cornerstone of their tribal identity so to speak, and that means they are going to use the USA to exact revenge.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    You won’t understand anything about American culture and politics until you take into account overwhelming power of Jewry in that country. American “Jewish community” hails from the former Russian empire, and these people convinced themselves that they’ve been wronged by Russia. It’s a cornerstone of their tribal identity so to speak, and that means they are going to use the USA to exact revenge.

    Not only is this never how foreign policy works, but I see no reason to believe a single part of it.

    Most Jews I meet, really like Russian culture, for ancestral reasons. They also have much more reason to dislike Germany, but the US gets on fine with Germany.

    As I said, there is no reason to believe any part of your “explanation”. Pure projection from you as an individual, I suspect.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I suspect the Jews you meet might be somewhat different from the average Jews, since the Jews I’ve met are usually neutral to hostile to Russia. There is also the strange case of a Jewish guy who is relatively friendly to Sovok Russia but is extremely hostile to Putin’s Russia and Russian national aspirations, and would support all kinds of sanctions and blockaded against it.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Felix has a Jew obsession, but this isn't really accurate IMO either: https://www.unz.com/anepigone/nobody-does-russophobia-like-jews-do/

    https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/russia.png

    There are considerable numbers of "Russophile" or Russia-neutral Jews (almost entirely from a leftist or "anti-imperialist" perspective, people like Greenwald and Blumenthal and the late Stephen Cohen), and the Jewish Lobby in the US is understandably much more obsessed with Iran. But the average American Jew has neoliberal, normie type views that you see in places like /r/politics, highly hostile to Russia.

    Replies: @AP, @Blinky Bill

    , @Felix Keverich
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Not only is this never how foreign policy works, but I see no reason to believe a single part of it.
     
    That is exactly how policymaking works in the US!

    To give you an example, Russiagate was an asinine conspiracy theory pumped into US collective consciousness by hysterical Jewish opinion-makers. Soon enough US government found itself retaliating for an "attack" that never happened. US department of Homeland Security declares that "white supremacist militants" is major threat in the US, because fucking Jews are still afraid of pogroms. 😂

    Jews are highly neurotic people, prone to frequent bouts of hysteria. But, thanks to near-total control of the media, Jewish hysterics shape politicial reality in the US.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    , @Radicalcenter
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Interesting. I only personally know one lady, a friend’s girlfriend, who is Jewish, in her 40s, and was born and raised in the USSR / Russia. Native Russian speaker, of course. She actively dislikes Russia and Russians and says that she does not consider herself Russian. Nice.

    She makes quite clear that her identity and loyalty are Jewish, not Russian or, when it comes down to it, not American. Just one bit of anecdotal evidence, which does not of course disprove or obviate the need to consider your very different experience with such people.

    , @Felix Keverich
    @Triteleia Laxa

    "Emotional" Jews in positions of power in Washington want to fuck with Russia with no regard for the consequences.


    Inside the administration, the debate on Russia policy has been “intense” with “strong feelings on different sides,” said a U.S. official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters.

    Last month’s decision to withhold sanctions against the company and CEO behind the nearly completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline was particularly divisive. Critics of the pipeline, which would transport natural gas from Russia to Germany, view its imminent completion and operation as a major geopolitical coup for the Kremlin.

    The State Department, in a position backed by Secretary of State (((Antony Blinken))), his deputy (((Wendy Sherman))) and Undersecretary of State (((Victoria Nuland))), recommended a raft of U.S. sanctions intended to block the pipeline, without waivers for the company or chief executive, said officials familiar with the decision.

    Biden, backed by top aides on the National Security Council, disagreed, arguing that the move would inflame relations with Germany, a key ally that views attempts to block the pipeline as a violation of its sovereignty.
     
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/biden-putin-summit/2021/06/15/19657e2c-cd44-11eb-9b7e-e06f6cfdece8_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_15
  43. @Barbarossa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Arab terrorists have lost their zing, and so it's back to the Cold War. We need enemies to define ourselves to keep the anger externalized as much as possible.

    It's always been striking to me that all the countries on the U.S. "bad list" are ones who are not on board with American financial plans. Putin does seem to be intent on doing things his own way and not bowing to the American economic system, which puts him in opposition to "our interests".

    The neo-con barb is always that Russia is a "gas station with a foreign policy". I suppose the counter-barb could be that the U.S. is a "bank with a foreign policy".

    Russia's behavior would not make amicable coexistence impossible from a sane multi-polar worldview where sovereign countries are permitted to have independent national interests, but from the position of hegemony any deviation is intolerable.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Wency

    It seems to help the US shore up their support and consolidate in Eastern Europe.

  44. @Abelard Lindsey
    Its silly to believe that China will take over Siberia. They can't even maintain a population in Northeast China. I hear that all you see are old people when you visit the cities in Northeast China.

    Replies: @angmoh, @il_palazzo

    Russia isn’t doing such a great job populating Siberia / RFE either.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @angmoh

    Yes, but the case for a Chinese land grab would require a rapidly expanding Chinese population there, and instead there’s a collapse in the neighboring Chinese population as well.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Radicalcenter

  45. @angmoh
    @Abelard Lindsey

    Russia isn't doing such a great job populating Siberia / RFE either.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    Yes, but the case for a Chinese land grab would require a rapidly expanding Chinese population there, and instead there’s a collapse in the neighboring Chinese population as well.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @reiner Tor

    Landgrabs are not being done just/only because of/with expanding population, it's not like RF had expanding/surplus population in 2013/14 right before Crimean landgrab.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    , @Radicalcenter
    @reiner Tor

    I respectfully disagree that low population, high average age, and/or low fertility rate in Chinese provinces bordering Russia is any solace to Russia.

    What would stop china from readily moving millions of families to the once-Russia Far East from provinces that do not border Russia, if Russia collapses?

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  46. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Felix Keverich


    You won’t understand anything about American culture and politics until you take into account overwhelming power of Jewry in that country. American “Jewish community” hails from the former Russian empire, and these people convinced themselves that they’ve been wronged by Russia. It’s a cornerstone of their tribal identity so to speak, and that means they are going to use the USA to exact revenge.
     
    Not only is this never how foreign policy works, but I see no reason to believe a single part of it.

    Most Jews I meet, really like Russian culture, for ancestral reasons. They also have much more reason to dislike Germany, but the US gets on fine with Germany.

    As I said, there is no reason to believe any part of your "explanation". Pure projection from you as an individual, I suspect.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin, @Felix Keverich, @Radicalcenter, @Felix Keverich

    I suspect the Jews you meet might be somewhat different from the average Jews, since the Jews I’ve met are usually neutral to hostile to Russia. There is also the strange case of a Jewish guy who is relatively friendly to Sovok Russia but is extremely hostile to Putin’s Russia and Russian national aspirations, and would support all kinds of sanctions and blockaded against it.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @reiner Tor

    Israel is friendly with Russia. Jews certainly determine Israel's relations. So if Jewish attitudes determined US foreign policy, the US would be friendly with Russia too.

    The US is extremely friendly with Germany. There's obviously much more reason for Jews to dislike Germany. Yet the US loves Germany, especially the US elite class, who go on and on about how great Merkel is.

    You guys are hilarious. Is it the Cold War, foreign power relations, ideological interests, keeping Eastern European allies in line? Or is it just that Jews hate Russia, because Jews are mad, angry and insane, and control everything - even though this makes zero sense given history and obvious Jewish focus on the Holocaust?

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Daniel Chieh, @Wency

  47. @reiner Tor
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I suspect the Jews you meet might be somewhat different from the average Jews, since the Jews I’ve met are usually neutral to hostile to Russia. There is also the strange case of a Jewish guy who is relatively friendly to Sovok Russia but is extremely hostile to Putin’s Russia and Russian national aspirations, and would support all kinds of sanctions and blockaded against it.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Israel is friendly with Russia. Jews certainly determine Israel’s relations. So if Jewish attitudes determined US foreign policy, the US would be friendly with Russia too.

    The US is extremely friendly with Germany. There’s obviously much more reason for Jews to dislike Germany. Yet the US loves Germany, especially the US elite class, who go on and on about how great Merkel is.

    You guys are hilarious. Is it the Cold War, foreign power relations, ideological interests, keeping Eastern European allies in line? Or is it just that Jews hate Russia, because Jews are mad, angry and insane, and control everything – even though this makes zero sense given history and obvious Jewish focus on the Holocaust?

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I never said anything about Eastern Europe or Germany or whatever, but in my personal experience Jews don’t like Russia. Now that you mention Germany, most Jews love Germany for its cuckedness and its constant prostration and apologizing to Jews. It’s hilarious to think of Merkel as some kind of a German nationalist. Jewish positive feelings towards Germany end where German self-interest starts. But Jews also didn’t dislike Yeltsin’s Russia that much, only as it started to reassert itself, much like how they are concerned about the AfD. Including the Israeli foreign ministry, which also expressed concern about that slavishly pro-Israel party.

    Also it’s just wrong to think that Israeli Jews are the same as American Jews. Israeli Jews are very pragmatic, and good relations don’t necessarily mean feelings of friendship. But many Israelis are more Russian than Jewish, so in some cases there’s some sincerity in all that.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Or is it just that Jews hate Russia, because Jews are mad, angry and insane, and control everything – even though this makes zero sense given history and obvious Jewish focus on the Holocaust?
     
    I mean, Julia Ioffe is truly the model of sanity. So is Slava Malamud.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1403791085739073541

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1402979160574803973

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1402983826805170177

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Wency
    @Triteleia Laxa


    There’s obviously much more reason for Jews to dislike Germany.
     
    There's a logic to what you're saying, but I don't think it works that way. Jews view Germany as a modern, advanced, cultured state. They have little to no lingering resentment towards Germany or Germans. They only resent the Nazis, i.e. Germany's version of far-right Republicans who managed to hijack the country through quasi-Republican minoritarian processes in a moment of weakness and temporary insanity.

    But in their view the sins of Czarist anti-Semitism are to some degree imputed to the Russian people, and more broadly the Slav. The Slavs are seen as a perpetually backward, boorish people -- basically Europe's version of Mississippians, whose failures are entirely their own fault. Take a look at Borat (yes, in the real-world Kazakhs aren't Slavs -- but Borat is a Slav). Cohen doesn't really suggest that Borat's ways and his anti-Semitism are the fault of a particular ideology or the Kazakh government -- they're just inherent to his people and their culture. It's only cause for comedy because they're so poor and weak.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @Triteleia Laxa, @Dmitry

  48. @reiner Tor
    @angmoh

    Yes, but the case for a Chinese land grab would require a rapidly expanding Chinese population there, and instead there’s a collapse in the neighboring Chinese population as well.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Radicalcenter

    Landgrabs are not being done just/only because of/with expanding population, it’s not like RF had expanding/surplus population in 2013/14 right before Crimean landgrab.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @sudden death

    But they already had a friendly population in place. Not to mention a 10+ times stronger military and a nuclear arsenal against a non-nuclear state. It’s really ridiculous to think that China would try to grab territory in Siberia, when it already has its hands full with a naval expansion and a conflict with the US.

    Replies: @sudden death

  49. @Triteleia Laxa
    @reiner Tor

    Israel is friendly with Russia. Jews certainly determine Israel's relations. So if Jewish attitudes determined US foreign policy, the US would be friendly with Russia too.

    The US is extremely friendly with Germany. There's obviously much more reason for Jews to dislike Germany. Yet the US loves Germany, especially the US elite class, who go on and on about how great Merkel is.

    You guys are hilarious. Is it the Cold War, foreign power relations, ideological interests, keeping Eastern European allies in line? Or is it just that Jews hate Russia, because Jews are mad, angry and insane, and control everything - even though this makes zero sense given history and obvious Jewish focus on the Holocaust?

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Daniel Chieh, @Wency

    I never said anything about Eastern Europe or Germany or whatever, but in my personal experience Jews don’t like Russia. Now that you mention Germany, most Jews love Germany for its cuckedness and its constant prostration and apologizing to Jews. It’s hilarious to think of Merkel as some kind of a German nationalist. Jewish positive feelings towards Germany end where German self-interest starts. But Jews also didn’t dislike Yeltsin’s Russia that much, only as it started to reassert itself, much like how they are concerned about the AfD. Including the Israeli foreign ministry, which also expressed concern about that slavishly pro-Israel party.

    Also it’s just wrong to think that Israeli Jews are the same as American Jews. Israeli Jews are very pragmatic, and good relations don’t necessarily mean feelings of friendship. But many Israelis are more Russian than Jewish, so in some cases there’s some sincerity in all that.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @reiner Tor

    Either:

    A) Merkel is worshipped by educated liberals, outside of Germany, because she is the most successful leader in German history and the most powerful woman in the world, with a strong track record of moderate liberal government.

    Or:

    B) Your tortured theory.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

  50. @reiner Tor
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I never said anything about Eastern Europe or Germany or whatever, but in my personal experience Jews don’t like Russia. Now that you mention Germany, most Jews love Germany for its cuckedness and its constant prostration and apologizing to Jews. It’s hilarious to think of Merkel as some kind of a German nationalist. Jewish positive feelings towards Germany end where German self-interest starts. But Jews also didn’t dislike Yeltsin’s Russia that much, only as it started to reassert itself, much like how they are concerned about the AfD. Including the Israeli foreign ministry, which also expressed concern about that slavishly pro-Israel party.

    Also it’s just wrong to think that Israeli Jews are the same as American Jews. Israeli Jews are very pragmatic, and good relations don’t necessarily mean feelings of friendship. But many Israelis are more Russian than Jewish, so in some cases there’s some sincerity in all that.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Either:

    A) Merkel is worshipped by educated liberals, outside of Germany, because she is the most successful leader in German history and the most powerful woman in the world, with a strong track record of moderate liberal government.

    Or:

    B) Your tortured theory.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Merkel is… the most successful leader in German history
     
    Imagine believing that her legacy of millions of Arabs added to the ethnic mix and the Atomausstieg is greater than what Bismarck, Adenauer or Kohl achieved. Sure.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  51. @Adrian E.
    The idea that the US can turn Russia against China by being a bit less hostile to Russia is, of course, absurd. Even if the US went further, there is simply nothing the US can offer that would be of such great value to Russia that it might endanger its good partnership with China for better relations with unreliable Western countries.

    I also have doubts about the narrative from the US (neocon) side that hostility towards Russia is a distraction that hinders the US concentrating on „containing“ China. It may well be that some lower-rank neocon thinktank people are hostile towards Russia for reasons that have nothing to do with China. But I suppose the more intelligent neocons think differently. Their goal is that the US remains the number 1 superpower, and they know:
    - The chances of stopping the rise of China are extremely slim.
    - There is no chance of strangulating China economically, as long as it has good relations with Russia.
    - The interests of Russia and China are naturally aligned to a large degree, and Western countries have nothing to offer to Russia that is so valuable that it might plausibly lead Russia to support a Western project to strangulate China economically.

    Of course, there are many stupid neocons (many are often in the media), but I think there must be more intelligent neocons who understand this, and I suppose there are intelligent neocons with quite some influence behind the scene.

    The most plausible conclusion from the points above is that the best option for the unlikely goal of stopping the rise of China would be a collapse of Russia and installing a pro-Western dictatorship (it would have to be a dictatorship because it would have to do things that are in the interest of Western countries - from the perspectiveof neocons - and contrary to the interests not only of China, but also the ones of Russia).

    Although its economy is much smaller, in case of increased Western hostility, good relations with Russia are important for China. Russia has many important resources. Western countries might disrupt sea routes, but they cannot block passage between Russia and China. Furthermore, in case of extreme nuclear blackmail, it can be good to have good relations with the only country that has a nuclear arsenal that is comparable (and in some respects superior) to the one of the US.

    I think it is quite likely that many of the hostile actions of Western countries against Russia and stoking up conflicts in neighboring countries of Russia are motivated by the hope that a collapse of Russia that could help installing an anti-Chinese and pro-Western dictatorship in Russia, probably the only chance to keep the US as the number 1 superpower in the next decades.

    Today, that looks, of course, rather implausible, but around 2014, there were plenty of comments that Russia would probably soon collapse.

    Of course, Western hostility towards Russia has strengthened the Russian-Chinese partnership. But since the chances to turn Russia against China with peaceful Western incentives are non-existing, anyway, I suppose that many neocons still cling to the hope that Western countries can achieve a collapse of Russia and install an anti-Chinese dictatorship in Russia, even if the chances for that are also very slim.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

    Actually Americans have something very enticing to offer, Ukraine and the end of sanctions. Russia’s goal is not China as pre eminent power, but getting back it’s political sphere, which is former USSR, such offer would be quite tempting… But I don’t believe that Americans are pragmatic enough to do such decisions.

    Reiner Tor you are correct with India, and some other countries which have very good relations with Russia, but not so good with China, like Vietnam. Still I don’t believe that India will ever be a good ally for the West. India is a true democracy and quite a volatile or mercurial country, surprisingly inward looking and self contained, if I am using right words. American alignment is only possible as long as BJP keeps its political coalition in the power. Congress party and various Socialist parties are very strong there, especially in the key states, and both factions are true friends of Russia. Actually I have never ever met such plurality of viewpoints and opinions as in India, there are Dalits who vehemently hate Gandhi and his legacy, there are commies, there are traditionalists and fundamentalists, Sufis and Deobandis, it’s unbelievable how truly democratic Indians are in the end, and always ready to riot in masses when they feel wronged, it’s the Europeans and Americans of modern era who are the conformist cattle. The future of democracy lies in India!

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Agathoklis
    @AltanBakshi

    Ha ha quite an entertaining host.

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @AltanBakshi


    Actually Americans have something very enticing to offer, Ukraine and the end of sanctions. Russia’s goal is not China as pre eminent power, but getting back it’s political sphere, which is former USSR, such offer would be quite tempting… But I don’t believe that Americans are pragmatic enough to do such decisions.
     
    Perhaps America thinks that the cost, of losing Eastern Europe from its own political sphere, is too high a price pay for Russian neutrality? Especially since Russia looks vulnerable to flipping anyway, whenever Putin leaves power.

    I noticed one thing recently that almost no one anywhere will ever admit, without acsribing it to luck/evil/or saying it is over.

    US foreign policy has been enormously successful over the last 100 years.

    Everyone says they keep making mistakes and losing, but, in the challenge of global power, the biggest challenge there is, their position always seems to end up improving. Perhaps plenty of them are smart and realistic about their interests?

    China is the most recent exception to this, but 1.4 billion highly intelligent, highly productive people were not going to remain starving peasants forever.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @AltanBakshi, @AltanBakshi, @Daniel Chieh, @Tom Marvolo Riddle

  52. @Aedib
    It makes no sense for Russia to drift away from the rising economic superpower in order to please the treacherous and declining one.
    .

    Replies: @sudden death

    It makes no sense for Russia to drift away from the rising economic superpower in order to please the treacherous and declining one.

    Relative to RF:

    10x population and 10x economy and rising – no danger, very cool.

    2,3x population and 10x economy and declining – danger, the horror.

    Very cold and calculated logic, the true pinnacle of realpolitic 😉

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @sudden death

    I detect wishful thinking on your part.

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @sudden death

    It is primarily the US that is preventing Russia from cutting the population gap with China from 10x to 8x over just a couple of years or so.

    It also happens to be the US that is most interested in making Russia's 10x differential China into something more than of largely theoretical interest.

    Replies: @sudden death, @RadicalCenter

    , @Aedib
    @sudden death

    You forgot the "treacherous" part. By the way, it makes sense to commerce with the rising star, and not with the fading one.

  53. @sudden death
    @reiner Tor

    Landgrabs are not being done just/only because of/with expanding population, it's not like RF had expanding/surplus population in 2013/14 right before Crimean landgrab.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    But they already had a friendly population in place. Not to mention a 10+ times stronger military and a nuclear arsenal against a non-nuclear state. It’s really ridiculous to think that China would try to grab territory in Siberia, when it already has its hands full with a naval expansion and a conflict with the US.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @reiner Tor

    Yet it seems we are arguing while having in mind a different timescales - it would be really ridiculous to think that Germany would try to grab territory in east while having hands full with France around 1870, but in the end of longer term the mortal danger was just as sensible only from economical, military and political potential of it.

  54. @sudden death
    @Aedib


    It makes no sense for Russia to drift away from the rising economic superpower in order to please the treacherous and declining one.
     
    Relative to RF:

    10x population and 10x economy and rising - no danger, very cool.

    2,3x population and 10x economy and declining - danger, the horror.

    Very cold and calculated logic, the true pinnacle of realpolitic ;)

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin, @Aedib

    I detect wishful thinking on your part.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
  55. In the present world it would be foolhardy for Russia to scale back its relations with China.

    However,in the next 5-10 years as China learns the ropes in the precious few areas where Russia is still technically superior Hypersonic missiles,Jet Engines,Nuclear Submarines,Wide body aircraft.Russia will be reduced to a supplier of resources to China.This is already 80%+ of its exports to China.

    Also if I am not mistaken despite the supposed border settlement China has not permanently waived its demand for return of formerly Qing lands such as Vladivostok (Haishenwai).IIRC there was quite a stir on Chinese social media when the Russian embassy celebrated its founding last year.

    So it may make sense for Russia to not completely close its options.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Vishnugupta

    Well I have consistently supported Russia maintaining relations, most notably with South Korea and India. That seems to be the general policy anyway, as has been noted, Russia isn't siding with one side or the other in China's squabbles with India or Vietnam.

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Vishnugupta

    China doesn't really care about the north, it can barely maintain populations within the north as is.

    They're also Manchu, not Chinese territories so ultimately they don't have much emotional sway.

    , @reiner Tor
    @Vishnugupta


    Also if I am not mistaken despite the supposed border settlement China has not permanently waived its demand for return of formerly Qing lands such as Vladivostok (Haishenwai).
     
    I think it was permanently waived, but Russia has permanently waived its right to Crimea several times, and then it just broke those promises.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @Anatoly Karlin

    , @showmethereal
    @Vishnugupta

    "Also if I am not mistaken despite the supposed border settlement China has not permanently waived its demand for return of formerly Qing lands such as Vladivostok (Haishenwai).IIRC there was quite a stir on Chinese social media when the Russian embassy celebrated its founding last year."

    Judging by what people say on social media is the absolute worst way to judge government thinking. There are some on social media who think China should revenge Japan and take back Taiwan militarily - yesterday.... Unlike those two issues - no China has no claims left at Vladivostok. Those are exactly the rumors the Russian ambassador - and Putin last week - are talking about. Those are CIA/MI6 psyops

  56. @Triteleia Laxa
    @reiner Tor

    Either:

    A) Merkel is worshipped by educated liberals, outside of Germany, because she is the most successful leader in German history and the most powerful woman in the world, with a strong track record of moderate liberal government.

    Or:

    B) Your tortured theory.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    Merkel is… the most successful leader in German history

    Imagine believing that her legacy of millions of Arabs added to the ethnic mix and the Atomausstieg is greater than what Bismarck, Adenauer or Kohl achieved. Sure.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @reiner Tor

    I disagree with her immigration policies, but it isn't about my opinion; as I recognise that other people's judgements aren't formed by my opinion.

    I also notice that Merkel's legacy includes Germany, finally, dominating Europe. I dislike this outcome, but, as above, I can appreciate that other people like it.

    Replies: @Rattus Norwegius

  57. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Felix Keverich


    You won’t understand anything about American culture and politics until you take into account overwhelming power of Jewry in that country. American “Jewish community” hails from the former Russian empire, and these people convinced themselves that they’ve been wronged by Russia. It’s a cornerstone of their tribal identity so to speak, and that means they are going to use the USA to exact revenge.
     
    Not only is this never how foreign policy works, but I see no reason to believe a single part of it.

    Most Jews I meet, really like Russian culture, for ancestral reasons. They also have much more reason to dislike Germany, but the US gets on fine with Germany.

    As I said, there is no reason to believe any part of your "explanation". Pure projection from you as an individual, I suspect.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin, @Felix Keverich, @Radicalcenter, @Felix Keverich

    Felix has a Jew obsession, but this isn’t really accurate IMO either: https://www.unz.com/anepigone/nobody-does-russophobia-like-jews-do/

    There are considerable numbers of “Russophile” or Russia-neutral Jews (almost entirely from a leftist or “anti-imperialist” perspective, people like Greenwald and Blumenthal and the late Stephen Cohen), and the Jewish Lobby in the US is understandably much more obsessed with Iran. But the average American Jew has neoliberal, normie type views that you see in places like /r/politics, highly hostile to Russia.

    • Replies: @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin

    American-born Jews are often descended from people who left the Russian Empire before the Revolution. For them, Russia = Cossacks and Pogroms (and those whose ancestors left Ukraine see Ukraine as Russia for such purposes). These guys are very left-wing and susceptible to the fake claim of Trump being a Russian tool.

    Recent Jewish immigrants tend to support Russian culture but hate the late-stage USSR which they viewed as antisemitic. They consider ex-KGB man Putin to be a product of the Soviet system that they despise and are thus politically anti-Russian. But they are also right wing and support Trump, whom they correctly identify as not being in Putin's pocket.

    So overall, American Jews are opposed to the Russian state.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Beckow

    , @Blinky Bill
    @Anatoly Karlin

    https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1405504250378178561?s=20

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @mal

  58. @reiner Tor
    @sudden death

    But they already had a friendly population in place. Not to mention a 10+ times stronger military and a nuclear arsenal against a non-nuclear state. It’s really ridiculous to think that China would try to grab territory in Siberia, when it already has its hands full with a naval expansion and a conflict with the US.

    Replies: @sudden death

    Yet it seems we are arguing while having in mind a different timescales – it would be really ridiculous to think that Germany would try to grab territory in east while having hands full with France around 1870, but in the end of longer term the mortal danger was just as sensible only from economical, military and political potential of it.

  59. @reiner Tor
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Merkel is… the most successful leader in German history
     
    Imagine believing that her legacy of millions of Arabs added to the ethnic mix and the Atomausstieg is greater than what Bismarck, Adenauer or Kohl achieved. Sure.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    I disagree with her immigration policies, but it isn’t about my opinion; as I recognise that other people’s judgements aren’t formed by my opinion.

    I also notice that Merkel’s legacy includes Germany, finally, dominating Europe. I dislike this outcome, but, as above, I can appreciate that other people like it.

    • Replies: @Rattus Norwegius
    @Triteleia Laxa

    While Germany is influential in the EU, is it large enough to 'dominate' the EU? There is lingering anti-German sentiment in many countries. Germany's economy or population while significant is certainly not overshadowing the EU. Germany economy is decling relative to eastern and central European states as their economies grow faster than Germany. France however is probably going to become more influential in the future. Though France won't dominate Europe, which Germany does not do now, however France could lead the dominant EU faction.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  60. @sudden death
    @Aedib


    It makes no sense for Russia to drift away from the rising economic superpower in order to please the treacherous and declining one.
     
    Relative to RF:

    10x population and 10x economy and rising - no danger, very cool.

    2,3x population and 10x economy and declining - danger, the horror.

    Very cold and calculated logic, the true pinnacle of realpolitic ;)

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin, @Aedib

    It is primarily the US that is preventing Russia from cutting the population gap with China from 10x to 8x over just a couple of years or so.

    It also happens to be the US that is most interested in making Russia’s 10x differential China into something more than of largely theoretical interest.

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Not only, as just as important factor in such prevention could have been China's non public dissaproval of bigger RF landgrabs in Ukraine.

    , @RadicalCenter
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Didn’t get the gist of your comment.

    As part of the US government’s needless belligerence, it has wrongly tried to harm the Russian people with economic sanctions. Is that what the US gov is doing that prevents Russians from cutting the population gap?

    And how could Russia cut the population gap with China that much in two years, with or without US interference?

    Thanks —

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

  61. @Vishnugupta
    In the present world it would be foolhardy for Russia to scale back its relations with China.

    However,in the next 5-10 years as China learns the ropes in the precious few areas where Russia is still technically superior Hypersonic missiles,Jet Engines,Nuclear Submarines,Wide body aircraft.Russia will be reduced to a supplier of resources to China.This is already 80%+ of its exports to China.

    Also if I am not mistaken despite the supposed border settlement China has not permanently waived its demand for return of formerly Qing lands such as Vladivostok (Haishenwai).IIRC there was quite a stir on Chinese social media when the Russian embassy celebrated its founding last year.

    So it may make sense for Russia to not completely close its options.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Daniel Chieh, @reiner Tor, @showmethereal

    Well I have consistently supported Russia maintaining relations, most notably with South Korea and India. That seems to be the general policy anyway, as has been noted, Russia isn’t siding with one side or the other in China’s squabbles with India or Vietnam.

  62. “why now?”, and “what are the Western elites planning?”

    All the pleb shit moved back to the West. Masks, gloves, ventilators, all that stupid shit is now being produced to some degree in the West for the vaginas. I do believe when Trump voiced the lab-leak-theory (TM) the PRC made a firm stance that any mention of Wuhan lab leak will be followed by a trade ban on masks and gloves and whatnot (produced in China) so everyone played nice until they didn’t have to. Obviously. America loves to blame everyone else but itself, it just had to bite its tongue for a year that’s all.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_would_rather_cry_in_a_BMW
    “I would rather cry in a BMW than smile on a bicycle.”

    The West will handle China just fine. China seems to be addicted to the overpriced, under-performing pleb-tech that Apple offers. Entire Chinese cities want their data to be on their inferior retard-programmed cloud network. Western-fetishism is very prominent in China. Fun fact: black people are the largest consumers of skin bleach and Chinese people are the largest consumers of eye-widening surgery.

    As for Russia. What exactly does Russia have to offer China aside from a handful of weapons? A list that shrinks shorter as countries just make their own after being cucked by Russia negging on its deals (for the West, no less).

    Nukes? China makes that. Stealth fighters? China makes that. Naval production? Quantum computing? Space vehicles? IT sectors? Super computers? Mars rovers? Drones? Energy production? Fringe technology? Russian banking sector (LOL)? Raw resources? That’s what Africa is for. At least Ukraine offers babies for sale. Sheesh.

    I guess someone needs to bag the groceries….

    Hell even Chinese Gamers don’t play the same games as everyone else, they have their own multi-billion dollar gaming sector which most Westerners aren’t aware of. Yet some Western titles can still break into their market like the Polish studio CD Projekt Red, but not Russia with its older and arguably more technologically advanced 1C company.

    For interesting highlights of Western vs Chinese game markets see the MORE section

    China does need to be punished to a degree for allowing things like sewer cooking oil and random spitting in elevators. Every summer an old Chinese couple walk around my neighbourhood spitting every 6 meters they walk. I wouldn’t even mention this if I didn’t look out of my window now (0744) and see them doing their morning arm-waving walk-exercise spitting routine. Sigh….

    My personal experience currently:

    I bought a soldering iron from AliExpress and FOR WHATEVER REASON it decided to ship from Wuhan. The Canadian Border Services Agency literally shat its pants when it arrived (they sent it back twice now). How did it arrive? In a box with yellow biohazard tape on it DECLARING its from Wuhan Security Clearance Zone in three languages. All it was missing was a few skulls and bones….

    The seller (drop shipper) is giving ME shit about it even though he made sure to hide the fact that it was going to ship from the Home of Corona. Luckily AliExpress knows a Western customer > a Chinese drop shipper

    For a country that averages an IQ of above a 100 you’d think they’d have a little more tact…. almost as if ‘saving face’ or ‘shame’ are not even things anymore. Couldn’t even be bothered to ship it through Singapore or Hong Kong to avoid all the nonsense inspections…..

    This is an attitude of a people that feel they are owed something in life. An Israeli attitude if there was ever a definition. There is only one way to deal with an attitude like that.

    Russia had a golden ticket to show the world something spectacular after Syria, but instead it went for the bottle and a shot of Krokadil while Netanyahu gave speeches to his proxy Russian army on Victory Day to be ready to fight Iran in case the US won’t (or else NKVD will come back).
    It had a second chance with Sputnik V but instead of doing some ELITE fuck-the-world-we-will-save-you-again-you-ungrateful-shits by making a huge show of deploying vaccines all over the world for PR gain, instead Russia went for the bottle, a shot of Korkadil and decided to play grab ass with Navalny (who seems to have had one too many psilocybin shroom-shakes himself).

    You can’t even make this shit up.

    [MORE]

    -Chinese men and women play the same games; Western men and women play different games and genres even.
    -Grind & PvP is paramount in Chinese market; community/developer-response is paramount in Western market
    -Micro-transactions is king in China; DLC/expansion/new content is king in the West
    -Unfinished products released early fail to gain a market in China; in the West, Early Access is so popular it is now creeping into the movie sector (first Early Access was Ultima Online beta when they asked people to pay for the CD and shipping if they wanted to test it for EA in ’97).
    -Pay-to-win is an accepted model in China; Cosmetic micro-transactions (ie gay hats) is the limit to what a Western audience will accept (only because trolls have been banned and homosexuality encourages faggotry like wasting money on a 3D model and a texture in a game with no stats)
    -On VR: both China and US show that younger generation want the newest VR sets but aren’t committed customers (will buy VR for only ONE game, then buy a new set years later for another single game); older customers (30+ yo) who have money hesitate to buy VR but when they do become loyal customers to the VR-gaming market buying multiple games but only one VR set.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Max Payne

    1) Chinese male and female audience don't play the same games, and where they do, it is for different reasons. Men would play things that are much more grind or math heavy like Amazing Cultivation Simulator and overwhelmingly PUBG and League while women tended toward social and "dress-up" games which seem oddly addictive, like Dream City Idols. What perhaps you're talking about are games like Genshin which have both a male and female playerbase: but that's because miohiyo found a model that appeals to both their male and female playerbase by pushing more dressup/social interactions for women while allowing min-maxers to have their playground as well.

    The same girls that are buying skins for "its purdy" or "omg its so cute" don't care about the min-max, but they also don't get in the way, so everyone is happy.

    2) Grind is paramount in all Asian games, but its not Korean style grind. Chinese games try to encourage regular play as opposed to lengthy play and PvP(to my disappointment) is not very widespread. Many Chinese games encourage regular logging into, for example, but don't particularly reward just stat grinding.

    Many games now are increasingly rewarding the skill-grind dynamic of Dark Souls instead, which the developers probably realize not only feels more rewarding to the player but also causes players to create their own videos to show off, thus basically advertising the game for them.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsHQPUrVi48

    3)Pay to win is indeed a more accepted model in China, however, this heavily applies only to PvE models as opposed to direct PvP(and unfortunately, I think, has been discouraging PvP as a model in Chinese games now). The way it is setup is still so that you can spend money to impress your friends, but less so to beat them up. Micro-transactions are indeed king, but new content is pretty common as well and good micro-transaction games tend to bring in new content on a schedule.

    Responsiveness is actually pretty high, although perhaps not so high that Discord trans admins have taken over everything. Never forget: perfect community responsiveness and social acceptability in the West:

    https://i.imgur.com/yxeIWdT.png

    https://www.gaystarnews.com/article/minecraft-creator-notch-banned-from-10th-anniversary-for-anti-lgbti-comments/


    However, the once-famous game developer has nearly been wiped from the history of his game due to a series of anti-LGBTI outbursts.
     
    Microsoft has completely removed all mention of Notch since from Minecraft, he has been successfully unpersoned and no longer has ever existed.

    I think I find myself quite a bit more accepting of the Chinese attitude of responding to the latest chimpout by ignoring them completely. Any response just ends up fueling the fire.

    https://www.inverse.com/gaming/boycott-genshin-impact-explained-mihoyo

    4)Early Access is meh. Its mostly a scam, I think its scaling down in popularity in the West as well. Remember all of the Kickstarters blowing up? Yeah. Star Citizen? No Man's Sky? etc. I'm a game dev myself and I like the notion of Early Access, but its easily a trap.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB8ZAqZnRqM

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  63. @Anatoly Karlin
    @sudden death

    It is primarily the US that is preventing Russia from cutting the population gap with China from 10x to 8x over just a couple of years or so.

    It also happens to be the US that is most interested in making Russia's 10x differential China into something more than of largely theoretical interest.

    Replies: @sudden death, @RadicalCenter

    Not only, as just as important factor in such prevention could have been China’s non public dissaproval of bigger RF landgrabs in Ukraine.

  64. @AltanBakshi
    @Adrian E.

    Actually Americans have something very enticing to offer, Ukraine and the end of sanctions. Russia's goal is not China as pre eminent power, but getting back it's political sphere, which is former USSR, such offer would be quite tempting... But I don't believe that Americans are pragmatic enough to do such decisions.

    Reiner Tor you are correct with India, and some other countries which have very good relations with Russia, but not so good with China, like Vietnam. Still I don't believe that India will ever be a good ally for the West. India is a true democracy and quite a volatile or mercurial country, surprisingly inward looking and self contained, if I am using right words. American alignment is only possible as long as BJP keeps its political coalition in the power. Congress party and various Socialist parties are very strong there, especially in the key states, and both factions are true friends of Russia. Actually I have never ever met such plurality of viewpoints and opinions as in India, there are Dalits who vehemently hate Gandhi and his legacy, there are commies, there are traditionalists and fundamentalists, Sufis and Deobandis, it's unbelievable how truly democratic Indians are in the end, and always ready to riot in masses when they feel wronged, it's the Europeans and Americans of modern era who are the conformist cattle. The future of democracy lies in India!

    Replies: @Agathoklis, @Triteleia Laxa

    Ha ha quite an entertaining host.

  65. @Vishnugupta
    In the present world it would be foolhardy for Russia to scale back its relations with China.

    However,in the next 5-10 years as China learns the ropes in the precious few areas where Russia is still technically superior Hypersonic missiles,Jet Engines,Nuclear Submarines,Wide body aircraft.Russia will be reduced to a supplier of resources to China.This is already 80%+ of its exports to China.

    Also if I am not mistaken despite the supposed border settlement China has not permanently waived its demand for return of formerly Qing lands such as Vladivostok (Haishenwai).IIRC there was quite a stir on Chinese social media when the Russian embassy celebrated its founding last year.

    So it may make sense for Russia to not completely close its options.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Daniel Chieh, @reiner Tor, @showmethereal

    China doesn’t really care about the north, it can barely maintain populations within the north as is.

    They’re also Manchu, not Chinese territories so ultimately they don’t have much emotional sway.

  66. @Vishnugupta
    In the present world it would be foolhardy for Russia to scale back its relations with China.

    However,in the next 5-10 years as China learns the ropes in the precious few areas where Russia is still technically superior Hypersonic missiles,Jet Engines,Nuclear Submarines,Wide body aircraft.Russia will be reduced to a supplier of resources to China.This is already 80%+ of its exports to China.

    Also if I am not mistaken despite the supposed border settlement China has not permanently waived its demand for return of formerly Qing lands such as Vladivostok (Haishenwai).IIRC there was quite a stir on Chinese social media when the Russian embassy celebrated its founding last year.

    So it may make sense for Russia to not completely close its options.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Daniel Chieh, @reiner Tor, @showmethereal

    Also if I am not mistaken despite the supposed border settlement China has not permanently waived its demand for return of formerly Qing lands such as Vladivostok (Haishenwai).

    I think it was permanently waived, but Russia has permanently waived its right to Crimea several times, and then it just broke those promises.

    • LOL: Triteleia Laxa
    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @reiner Tor

    That's correct, but we should ask why Russia broke its promises? Because there was a coup and a new Atlanticist affiliated regime hostile to Russia came to power in Ukraine, similarly if Navalny or someone like him would come to power and it would seem likely that Russia became hostile towards China, then there could be a chance of China breaking her promises and taking control of some bordering regions, especially if Russia would be in turmoil, in my opinion it would be justifiable, for America is led by demons...

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @reiner Tor

    It would require a major political crisis/state collapse within Russia. Further, it must also involve the temporary incapacitation of its nuclear deterrent and a reasonable perception on the part of the Chinese that it is intent on flipping sides and becoming a base for Western Alliance encroachment upon China itself from the northern/west flank.

    The one obvious thing that qualifies would be a radical Westernist color revolution in Russia whose results are not accepted by major parts of the security establishment.

    Hypothetical as such a scenario might be, if China does seize the Russian Far East in its wake, I would not even be mad at them. If Russians insist on stepping on the same rake they did in 1917 and 1991, well, perhaps they are simply fundamentally maladapted to this world, and deserve to keep losing territories and population, indefinitely.

    Replies: @Svevlad

  67. @216

    Good. They’re insufferable, and make me want to shit out of my glorious eyes whenever I lay them upon their imbecilic, butthurt-loaded, cope-stuffed drivel.

     

    Call them all the names you want, but they are my people and I will not apologize for our existence nor our once and future greatness.

    Conservatives are the best of America, the liberal is the same no matter where he is.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    This is exactly what is your problem. You have no future, you’ve handed it over to subhuman roaches on a silver platter because you wanted to take the high road.

    Conservativism is merely just a 20 year lag to any woke bullshit, and you know it. It’s a brake to progressivism, not the catastrophic derailment and annihilation that is needed

    • Agree: Tom Marvolo Riddle
  68. DNS says:
    @Felix Keverich
    @reiner Tor

    China is not at war with India, and Russia is not allied with it by any means. Lately, India increasingly behaves like some Eastern European country, with rising svidomism at home and intense sucking of American dick. Russian arms exports to India declined precipitously as India switches to Western weapons. Most importantly, India's elites appear to believe that good things will come their way from sucking American dick, so we should probably brace ourselves for India becoming another ZOG colony down the line.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @DNS

    Russian arms exports to India declined precipitously as India switches to Western weapons.

    The proportion of imports from Russia has gone down since 10-15 years ago but in absolute terms the amount has been larger than before, due to an increased defence budget. Add to this the fact that India has resisted US pressure to not buy the S-400 battery. I suppose this is just to diversify imports and not be reliant on one single source, especially as India suspects Russia may side with China or aid it passively by not selling weapons to India in the case of any future conflict, although this is unlikely IMO.

    American weapons purchases also come with a lot of strings attached, as Pakistan knows, so Russia will remain India’s main weapons provider.

    India is world’s second-largest arms importer

    Russia accounted for 58% of Indian arms imports in 2014–18, compared with 76% in 2009-13. Israel, the U.S. and France all increased their arms exports to India in 2014-18. However, the Russian share in Indian imports is likely to go up sharply during the next five-year period as India signed several big-ticket deals recently, and more are in the pipeline. These include S-400 air defence systems, four stealth frigates, AK-203 assault rifles, a second nuclear attack submarine on lease, and deals for Kamov-226T utility helicopters, Mi-17 helicopters and short-range air defence systems. The report noted that despite the long-standing conflict between India and Pakistan, arms imports decreased for both countries in 2014-18 compared with 2009-13.

    On a side note, it seems Russia halted sales of the S-400 to China, perhaps because unlike the Indians, the Chinese are competent enough to reverse-engineer it.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @DNS

    "On a side note, it seems Russia halted sales of the S-400 to China, perhaps because unlike the Indians, the Chinese are competent enough to reverse-engineer it."

    Absolutely fake news propagated by western and Indian news. The S400's are already active in China. Facing Taiwan and facing Japan. Fake news is so silly. Aside from the fact it was public news when China began testing the S400's (and Russia was pleased when they announced the results) - it would be silly that Russia would stop the sale of S400's and then Putin make the public declaration Russia is helping China develop an early warning system that only Russia and the US currently have.

    Now why Russia sold them to two faced Turkey I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey didn't give the US access to the system. I guess Russia is that confident.

  69. @AltanBakshi
    @Adrian E.

    Actually Americans have something very enticing to offer, Ukraine and the end of sanctions. Russia's goal is not China as pre eminent power, but getting back it's political sphere, which is former USSR, such offer would be quite tempting... But I don't believe that Americans are pragmatic enough to do such decisions.

    Reiner Tor you are correct with India, and some other countries which have very good relations with Russia, but not so good with China, like Vietnam. Still I don't believe that India will ever be a good ally for the West. India is a true democracy and quite a volatile or mercurial country, surprisingly inward looking and self contained, if I am using right words. American alignment is only possible as long as BJP keeps its political coalition in the power. Congress party and various Socialist parties are very strong there, especially in the key states, and both factions are true friends of Russia. Actually I have never ever met such plurality of viewpoints and opinions as in India, there are Dalits who vehemently hate Gandhi and his legacy, there are commies, there are traditionalists and fundamentalists, Sufis and Deobandis, it's unbelievable how truly democratic Indians are in the end, and always ready to riot in masses when they feel wronged, it's the Europeans and Americans of modern era who are the conformist cattle. The future of democracy lies in India!

    Replies: @Agathoklis, @Triteleia Laxa

    Actually Americans have something very enticing to offer, Ukraine and the end of sanctions. Russia’s goal is not China as pre eminent power, but getting back it’s political sphere, which is former USSR, such offer would be quite tempting… But I don’t believe that Americans are pragmatic enough to do such decisions.

    Perhaps America thinks that the cost, of losing Eastern Europe from its own political sphere, is too high a price pay for Russian neutrality? Especially since Russia looks vulnerable to flipping anyway, whenever Putin leaves power.

    I noticed one thing recently that almost no one anywhere will ever admit, without acsribing it to luck/evil/or saying it is over.

    US foreign policy has been enormously successful over the last 100 years.

    Everyone says they keep making mistakes and losing, but, in the challenge of global power, the biggest challenge there is, their position always seems to end up improving. Perhaps plenty of them are smart and realistic about their interests?

    China is the most recent exception to this, but 1.4 billion highly intelligent, highly productive people were not going to remain starving peasants forever.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I'd add that Putin also seems smart and realistic about Russia's interests. If he can ensure governmental continuity, then Russia will be in an excellent position in relation to both China and the US. Also, with Germany and therefore the EU.

    I wonder what they would, or should, leverage that position for?

    , @AltanBakshi
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I wrote former USSR, not Warsaw pact, and I forgot to clarify that FUSSR can't include Baltic countries, because selling of Nato members for political gain would utterly destroy Americas prestige and trust in the security guarantees of NATO. Abandoning Ukraine and countries like Moldova and Georgia, would not be a real loss for America. Most citizens of the West would not even notice that anything has changed.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @AltanBakshi
    @Triteleia Laxa


    US foreign policy has been enormously successful over the last 100 years.
     
    Well when you have a continent sized fortress with oceans on both sides as impregnable walls... Think about UK in 19th century, and multiply it with ten, that's how lucky America is geographically. America is a Thassalocracy with its own continent! Can you have any better killer combo? Luck is not what made Sparta, Romans or Qin...

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Everyone says they keep making mistakes and losing, but, in the challenge of global power, the biggest challenge there is, their position always seems to end up improving. Perhaps plenty of them are smart and realistic about their interests?

     

    Hmm, I think that's largely just due to bulk and post-WW2, when the US was the only major power left that suffered no internal damage at all and therefore was able to prosecute her advantages quite significantly. Previously, Western European imperialism was capable of producing significant competition to American power.

    Post-Cold War, US total ascendency has increasingly led to futile and expensive efforts that haven't really improved the US position at all. The US diplomatic position, for example, is in a net total loss state compared to the 90s or the 2000s.

    There are a number of interests working in the US, not just durr juus, but ultimately these powerful domestic forces only vaguely have anything to do with the national interest. One could literally see this in Pentagon advisors, who are maximalists against China or Russia(or both) depending on their paycheck; this is understandable, but becomes increasingly errant when their advice(often based on motivated reasoning, or sometimes wild fantasy) is seen as genuine.
    , @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Not really, Just lucky enough to benefit from WWII eliminating all European competitors, taking over Japan and having a huge landmass, industrial base and population.

    Now though, half it's pop has been replaced and is ready to kill or enslave the other half and it's economy has been gutted, financialized, offshored and propped up by money printing.

    The US WAS strong. Now it's weakening at an increasingly accelerated rate. Where has it's position improved in recent years save Ukraine who's people are currently such dumb malleable sheep that they elected an actor who played a politician on a TV show as their president? Who, btw is now at like a 32% approval rating after 18 months. Everywhere else is rejecting western gay sex tranny's can get abortions too culture and lets replace our children with foreigners USA style liberalism.

    The Anglosphere has nowhere to go but down. It even demonizes anglos, wtf kind of culture demonizes it's own people? Not a winning one.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  70. @Triteleia Laxa
    @AltanBakshi


    Actually Americans have something very enticing to offer, Ukraine and the end of sanctions. Russia’s goal is not China as pre eminent power, but getting back it’s political sphere, which is former USSR, such offer would be quite tempting… But I don’t believe that Americans are pragmatic enough to do such decisions.
     
    Perhaps America thinks that the cost, of losing Eastern Europe from its own political sphere, is too high a price pay for Russian neutrality? Especially since Russia looks vulnerable to flipping anyway, whenever Putin leaves power.

    I noticed one thing recently that almost no one anywhere will ever admit, without acsribing it to luck/evil/or saying it is over.

    US foreign policy has been enormously successful over the last 100 years.

    Everyone says they keep making mistakes and losing, but, in the challenge of global power, the biggest challenge there is, their position always seems to end up improving. Perhaps plenty of them are smart and realistic about their interests?

    China is the most recent exception to this, but 1.4 billion highly intelligent, highly productive people were not going to remain starving peasants forever.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @AltanBakshi, @AltanBakshi, @Daniel Chieh, @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    I’d add that Putin also seems smart and realistic about Russia’s interests. If he can ensure governmental continuity, then Russia will be in an excellent position in relation to both China and the US. Also, with Germany and therefore the EU.

    I wonder what they would, or should, leverage that position for?

  71. @reiner Tor
    @Vishnugupta


    Also if I am not mistaken despite the supposed border settlement China has not permanently waived its demand for return of formerly Qing lands such as Vladivostok (Haishenwai).
     
    I think it was permanently waived, but Russia has permanently waived its right to Crimea several times, and then it just broke those promises.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @Anatoly Karlin

    That’s correct, but we should ask why Russia broke its promises? Because there was a coup and a new Atlanticist affiliated regime hostile to Russia came to power in Ukraine, similarly if Navalny or someone like him would come to power and it would seem likely that Russia became hostile towards China, then there could be a chance of China breaking her promises and taking control of some bordering regions, especially if Russia would be in turmoil, in my opinion it would be justifiable, for America is led by demons…

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
  72. @Max Payne

    “why now?”, and “what are the Western elites planning?”
     
    All the pleb shit moved back to the West. Masks, gloves, ventilators, all that stupid shit is now being produced to some degree in the West for the vaginas. I do believe when Trump voiced the lab-leak-theory (TM) the PRC made a firm stance that any mention of Wuhan lab leak will be followed by a trade ban on masks and gloves and whatnot (produced in China) so everyone played nice until they didn't have to. Obviously. America loves to blame everyone else but itself, it just had to bite its tongue for a year that's all.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_would_rather_cry_in_a_BMW
    "I would rather cry in a BMW than smile on a bicycle."

    The West will handle China just fine. China seems to be addicted to the overpriced, under-performing pleb-tech that Apple offers. Entire Chinese cities want their data to be on their inferior retard-programmed cloud network. Western-fetishism is very prominent in China. Fun fact: black people are the largest consumers of skin bleach and Chinese people are the largest consumers of eye-widening surgery.

    As for Russia. What exactly does Russia have to offer China aside from a handful of weapons? A list that shrinks shorter as countries just make their own after being cucked by Russia negging on its deals (for the West, no less).

    Nukes? China makes that. Stealth fighters? China makes that. Naval production? Quantum computing? Space vehicles? IT sectors? Super computers? Mars rovers? Drones? Energy production? Fringe technology? Russian banking sector (LOL)? Raw resources? That's what Africa is for. At least Ukraine offers babies for sale. Sheesh.

    I guess someone needs to bag the groceries....

    Hell even Chinese Gamers don't play the same games as everyone else, they have their own multi-billion dollar gaming sector which most Westerners aren't aware of. Yet some Western titles can still break into their market like the Polish studio CD Projekt Red, but not Russia with its older and arguably more technologically advanced 1C company.

    For interesting highlights of Western vs Chinese game markets see the MORE section

    China does need to be punished to a degree for allowing things like sewer cooking oil and random spitting in elevators. Every summer an old Chinese couple walk around my neighbourhood spitting every 6 meters they walk. I wouldn't even mention this if I didn't look out of my window now (0744) and see them doing their morning arm-waving walk-exercise spitting routine. Sigh....

    My personal experience currently:

    I bought a soldering iron from AliExpress and FOR WHATEVER REASON it decided to ship from Wuhan. The Canadian Border Services Agency literally shat its pants when it arrived (they sent it back twice now). How did it arrive? In a box with yellow biohazard tape on it DECLARING its from Wuhan Security Clearance Zone in three languages. All it was missing was a few skulls and bones....

    The seller (drop shipper) is giving ME shit about it even though he made sure to hide the fact that it was going to ship from the Home of Corona. Luckily AliExpress knows a Western customer > a Chinese drop shipper

    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-T_ZOnjRMZS0/YMh1CLpok8I/AAAAAAAAHR8/LrC35loG2_kkDARTss8A7_5wefNAeYvKgCLcBGAsYHQ/s618/heyhey.png

    For a country that averages an IQ of above a 100 you'd think they'd have a little more tact.... almost as if 'saving face' or 'shame' are not even things anymore. Couldn't even be bothered to ship it through Singapore or Hong Kong to avoid all the nonsense inspections.....

    This is an attitude of a people that feel they are owed something in life. An Israeli attitude if there was ever a definition. There is only one way to deal with an attitude like that.

    Russia had a golden ticket to show the world something spectacular after Syria, but instead it went for the bottle and a shot of Krokadil while Netanyahu gave speeches to his proxy Russian army on Victory Day to be ready to fight Iran in case the US won't (or else NKVD will come back).
    It had a second chance with Sputnik V but instead of doing some ELITE fuck-the-world-we-will-save-you-again-you-ungrateful-shits by making a huge show of deploying vaccines all over the world for PR gain, instead Russia went for the bottle, a shot of Korkadil and decided to play grab ass with Navalny (who seems to have had one too many psilocybin shroom-shakes himself).

    You can't even make this shit up.




    -Chinese men and women play the same games; Western men and women play different games and genres even.
    -Grind & PvP is paramount in Chinese market; community/developer-response is paramount in Western market
    -Micro-transactions is king in China; DLC/expansion/new content is king in the West
    -Unfinished products released early fail to gain a market in China; in the West, Early Access is so popular it is now creeping into the movie sector (first Early Access was Ultima Online beta when they asked people to pay for the CD and shipping if they wanted to test it for EA in '97).
    -Pay-to-win is an accepted model in China; Cosmetic micro-transactions (ie gay hats) is the limit to what a Western audience will accept (only because trolls have been banned and homosexuality encourages faggotry like wasting money on a 3D model and a texture in a game with no stats)
    -On VR: both China and US show that younger generation want the newest VR sets but aren't committed customers (will buy VR for only ONE game, then buy a new set years later for another single game); older customers (30+ yo) who have money hesitate to buy VR but when they do become loyal customers to the VR-gaming market buying multiple games but only one VR set.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    1) Chinese male and female audience don’t play the same games, and where they do, it is for different reasons. Men would play things that are much more grind or math heavy like Amazing Cultivation Simulator and overwhelmingly PUBG and League while women tended toward social and “dress-up” games which seem oddly addictive, like Dream City Idols. What perhaps you’re talking about are games like Genshin which have both a male and female playerbase: but that’s because miohiyo found a model that appeals to both their male and female playerbase by pushing more dressup/social interactions for women while allowing min-maxers to have their playground as well.

    The same girls that are buying skins for “its purdy” or “omg its so cute” don’t care about the min-max, but they also don’t get in the way, so everyone is happy.

    2) Grind is paramount in all Asian games, but its not Korean style grind. Chinese games try to encourage regular play as opposed to lengthy play and PvP(to my disappointment) is not very widespread. Many Chinese games encourage regular logging into, for example, but don’t particularly reward just stat grinding.

    Many games now are increasingly rewarding the skill-grind dynamic of Dark Souls instead, which the developers probably realize not only feels more rewarding to the player but also causes players to create their own videos to show off, thus basically advertising the game for them.

    3)Pay to win is indeed a more accepted model in China, however, this heavily applies only to PvE models as opposed to direct PvP(and unfortunately, I think, has been discouraging PvP as a model in Chinese games now). The way it is setup is still so that you can spend money to impress your friends, but less so to beat them up. Micro-transactions are indeed king, but new content is pretty common as well and good micro-transaction games tend to bring in new content on a schedule.

    Responsiveness is actually pretty high, although perhaps not so high that Discord trans admins have taken over everything. Never forget: perfect community responsiveness and social acceptability in the West:

    https://www.gaystarnews.com/article/minecraft-creator-notch-banned-from-10th-anniversary-for-anti-lgbti-comments/

    However, the once-famous game developer has nearly been wiped from the history of his game due to a series of anti-LGBTI outbursts.

    Microsoft has completely removed all mention of Notch since from Minecraft, he has been successfully unpersoned and no longer has ever existed.

    I think I find myself quite a bit more accepting of the Chinese attitude of responding to the latest chimpout by ignoring them completely. Any response just ends up fueling the fire.

    https://www.inverse.com/gaming/boycott-genshin-impact-explained-mihoyo

    4)Early Access is meh. Its mostly a scam, I think its scaling down in popularity in the West as well. Remember all of the Kickstarters blowing up? Yeah. Star Citizen? No Man’s Sky? etc. I’m a game dev myself and I like the notion of Early Access, but its easily a trap.

    • Thanks: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Daniel Chieh

    China imported most of its gaming preferences (and anime aesthetic) from Japan, except the heavy PvP aspect, and slightly changed those to their social realities.

  73. @reiner Tor
    @Vishnugupta


    Also if I am not mistaken despite the supposed border settlement China has not permanently waived its demand for return of formerly Qing lands such as Vladivostok (Haishenwai).
     
    I think it was permanently waived, but Russia has permanently waived its right to Crimea several times, and then it just broke those promises.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @Anatoly Karlin

    It would require a major political crisis/state collapse within Russia. Further, it must also involve the temporary incapacitation of its nuclear deterrent and a reasonable perception on the part of the Chinese that it is intent on flipping sides and becoming a base for Western Alliance encroachment upon China itself from the northern/west flank.

    The one obvious thing that qualifies would be a radical Westernist color revolution in Russia whose results are not accepted by major parts of the security establishment.

    Hypothetical as such a scenario might be, if China does seize the Russian Far East in its wake, I would not even be mad at them. If Russians insist on stepping on the same rake they did in 1917 and 1991, well, perhaps they are simply fundamentally maladapted to this world, and deserve to keep losing territories and population, indefinitely.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Anatoly Karlin

    There's a reason why I'm for "extermination wars" eg that any war and invasion should be fought to it's most extreme logical conclusion: annihilation.

    It saves precious memory-space, simplifies history, and prevents one side from committing embarrassing idiocies over and over again.

    Eg, stupidity must be brutally punished, except the punishment is instant death, even on a collective level. No second chances, no anything. Ultradarwinism.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  74. @Triteleia Laxa
    @AltanBakshi


    Actually Americans have something very enticing to offer, Ukraine and the end of sanctions. Russia’s goal is not China as pre eminent power, but getting back it’s political sphere, which is former USSR, such offer would be quite tempting… But I don’t believe that Americans are pragmatic enough to do such decisions.
     
    Perhaps America thinks that the cost, of losing Eastern Europe from its own political sphere, is too high a price pay for Russian neutrality? Especially since Russia looks vulnerable to flipping anyway, whenever Putin leaves power.

    I noticed one thing recently that almost no one anywhere will ever admit, without acsribing it to luck/evil/or saying it is over.

    US foreign policy has been enormously successful over the last 100 years.

    Everyone says they keep making mistakes and losing, but, in the challenge of global power, the biggest challenge there is, their position always seems to end up improving. Perhaps plenty of them are smart and realistic about their interests?

    China is the most recent exception to this, but 1.4 billion highly intelligent, highly productive people were not going to remain starving peasants forever.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @AltanBakshi, @AltanBakshi, @Daniel Chieh, @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    I wrote former USSR, not Warsaw pact, and I forgot to clarify that FUSSR can’t include Baltic countries, because selling of Nato members for political gain would utterly destroy Americas prestige and trust in the security guarantees of NATO. Abandoning Ukraine and countries like Moldova and Georgia, would not be a real loss for America. Most citizens of the West would not even notice that anything has changed.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @AltanBakshi

    Fair point. Sorry for missing your carefully defined argument.


    Abandoning Ukraine and countries like Moldova and Georgia, would not be a real loss for America. Most citizens of the West would not even notice that anything has changed.
     
    I agree, but what would be the reward?

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  75. @AltanBakshi
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I wrote former USSR, not Warsaw pact, and I forgot to clarify that FUSSR can't include Baltic countries, because selling of Nato members for political gain would utterly destroy Americas prestige and trust in the security guarantees of NATO. Abandoning Ukraine and countries like Moldova and Georgia, would not be a real loss for America. Most citizens of the West would not even notice that anything has changed.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Fair point. Sorry for missing your carefully defined argument.

    Abandoning Ukraine and countries like Moldova and Georgia, would not be a real loss for America. Most citizens of the West would not even notice that anything has changed.

    I agree, but what would be the reward?

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Russia would most likely be less hostile if she had not been sanctioned in unison, for starters.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  76. @Triteleia Laxa
    @AltanBakshi

    Fair point. Sorry for missing your carefully defined argument.


    Abandoning Ukraine and countries like Moldova and Georgia, would not be a real loss for America. Most citizens of the West would not even notice that anything has changed.
     
    I agree, but what would be the reward?

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Russia would most likely be less hostile if she had not been sanctioned in unison, for starters.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    What is the benefit of "less hostile", in practical terms?

    Is it more substantial than contesting Ukraine?

    Sanctions are a double-edged sword, but their use turns the lifting of them, into a potential carrot!

    That is useful when preparing for a change in the administration.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Felix Keverich

  77. @Triteleia Laxa
    @reiner Tor

    Israel is friendly with Russia. Jews certainly determine Israel's relations. So if Jewish attitudes determined US foreign policy, the US would be friendly with Russia too.

    The US is extremely friendly with Germany. There's obviously much more reason for Jews to dislike Germany. Yet the US loves Germany, especially the US elite class, who go on and on about how great Merkel is.

    You guys are hilarious. Is it the Cold War, foreign power relations, ideological interests, keeping Eastern European allies in line? Or is it just that Jews hate Russia, because Jews are mad, angry and insane, and control everything - even though this makes zero sense given history and obvious Jewish focus on the Holocaust?

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Daniel Chieh, @Wency

    Or is it just that Jews hate Russia, because Jews are mad, angry and insane, and control everything – even though this makes zero sense given history and obvious Jewish focus on the Holocaust?

    I mean, Julia Ioffe is truly the model of sanity. So is Slava Malamud.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1403791085739073541

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1402979160574803973

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1402983826805170177

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    Slava Malamund self-identifies as a sports Tweeter. Are they for real? Are they a performance artist? Are they a they, or a he, or a she? I do not know. I am not into generalising from the Tweets of clowns with anxiety issues.

    Julia Ioffe is a native Russian speaker, who has carved out a role for herself as a prominent voice on Russia. She seems proud of her Russian heritage, even if she hates Putin. She is also a Democratic partisan and really hates Donald Trump, so she is consistent in her opinions for her class and profession. She seems no more crazy than is normal.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  78. @Barbarossa
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Arab terrorists have lost their zing, and so it's back to the Cold War. We need enemies to define ourselves to keep the anger externalized as much as possible.

    It's always been striking to me that all the countries on the U.S. "bad list" are ones who are not on board with American financial plans. Putin does seem to be intent on doing things his own way and not bowing to the American economic system, which puts him in opposition to "our interests".

    The neo-con barb is always that Russia is a "gas station with a foreign policy". I suppose the counter-barb could be that the U.S. is a "bank with a foreign policy".

    Russia's behavior would not make amicable coexistence impossible from a sane multi-polar worldview where sovereign countries are permitted to have independent national interests, but from the position of hegemony any deviation is intolerable.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Wency

    It’s always been striking to me that all the countries on the U.S. “bad list” are ones who are not on board with American financial plans.

    Surely the US social program — i.e., the Rainbow Flag — has something to do with this as well.

    Sometimes people will point to places like Saudi Arabia as a counterpoint, but this is misleading: USG (and more broadly, the Cathedral) is prepared to tolerate acts of social conservativism in nonwhite countries, but white countries must always be converging towards American cultural standards or face pariah status. This is at least a decades-long tradition — during the Cold War, Franco received continuing harsh criticism for acts of repression that were incredibly mild by the standards of America’s nonwhite Cold War allies. And the truth is that, under American pressure, even Franco was slowly liberalizing the country throughout his rule.

  79. @sudden death
    @Aedib


    It makes no sense for Russia to drift away from the rising economic superpower in order to please the treacherous and declining one.
     
    Relative to RF:

    10x population and 10x economy and rising - no danger, very cool.

    2,3x population and 10x economy and declining - danger, the horror.

    Very cold and calculated logic, the true pinnacle of realpolitic ;)

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin, @Aedib

    You forgot the “treacherous” part. By the way, it makes sense to commerce with the rising star, and not with the fading one.

  80. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Russia would most likely be less hostile if she had not been sanctioned in unison, for starters.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    What is the benefit of “less hostile”, in practical terms?

    Is it more substantial than contesting Ukraine?

    Sanctions are a double-edged sword, but their use turns the lifting of them, into a potential carrot!

    That is useful when preparing for a change in the administration.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    What is the benefit of “less hostile”, in practical terms?

     

    The ability to get into space without a very big trampoline, for one.

    Obviously there are substantial benefits in not having an atomic superpower with vast human capital being irate at you.


    Sanctions are a double-edged sword, but their use turns the lifting of them, into a potential carrot!

     

    People aren't idiots, just because you kidnapped their children doesn't mean that that they're about to break into happy plaudits because you might release them.

    That is useful when preparing for a change in the administration.

     

    Not everyone is appreciative of being color revolutioned. I, for one, think I could do with seeing fewer pride flags in my life.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Felix Keverich
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I think that "Laxa" accidentally raises important point. Putin's restraint means that US faced very little cost from its continued confrontation with Russia. The costs incurred by US client regimes in Gruzia and the Ukraine do not figure into American calculations. Therefore the US, malignant and stupid as it is, feels no compulsion to end its conflict with Russia. US is comfortable with conflict as its default state.

    Suppose the goal of Russian foreign policy is to work out modus vivendi with Washington. Russia would first need to inflict some actual pain in order to change American calculus, and make peace desirable for Washington in the first place.

    How?

    US press is offering some interesting ideas: supplying satellite technology to Iran, arming Taleban, hacking/cyberwarfare etc. All of which are mere hoaxes at the moment, but something that Russia could potentially be doing...

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  81. @Anatoly Karlin
    @reiner Tor

    It would require a major political crisis/state collapse within Russia. Further, it must also involve the temporary incapacitation of its nuclear deterrent and a reasonable perception on the part of the Chinese that it is intent on flipping sides and becoming a base for Western Alliance encroachment upon China itself from the northern/west flank.

    The one obvious thing that qualifies would be a radical Westernist color revolution in Russia whose results are not accepted by major parts of the security establishment.

    Hypothetical as such a scenario might be, if China does seize the Russian Far East in its wake, I would not even be mad at them. If Russians insist on stepping on the same rake they did in 1917 and 1991, well, perhaps they are simply fundamentally maladapted to this world, and deserve to keep losing territories and population, indefinitely.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    There’s a reason why I’m for “extermination wars” eg that any war and invasion should be fought to it’s most extreme logical conclusion: annihilation.

    It saves precious memory-space, simplifies history, and prevents one side from committing embarrassing idiocies over and over again.

    Eg, stupidity must be brutally punished, except the punishment is instant death, even on a collective level. No second chances, no anything. Ultradarwinism.

    • Agree: Boomthorkell
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Svevlad

    Why do you choose to come across as a total psychopath?

    Replies: @Svevlad

  82. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Or is it just that Jews hate Russia, because Jews are mad, angry and insane, and control everything – even though this makes zero sense given history and obvious Jewish focus on the Holocaust?
     
    I mean, Julia Ioffe is truly the model of sanity. So is Slava Malamud.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1403791085739073541

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1402979160574803973

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SlavaMalamud/status/1402983826805170177

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Slava Malamund self-identifies as a sports Tweeter. Are they for real? Are they a performance artist? Are they a they, or a he, or a she? I do not know. I am not into generalising from the Tweets of clowns with anxiety issues.

    Julia Ioffe is a native Russian speaker, who has carved out a role for herself as a prominent voice on Russia. She seems proud of her Russian heritage, even if she hates Putin. She is also a Democratic partisan and really hates Donald Trump, so she is consistent in her opinions for her class and profession. She seems no more crazy than is normal.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa

    They may be clowns with mental illnesses, but unfortunately, they're clowns who actually get paid for their opinions and there's not a lot of rationality to be had with them.



    The United States and the EU could try to neutralize the crisis, but that may not be possible due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in Russia. Since the start of the crisis, Putin has been mobilizing for war, and cracking down on anyone opposing the action. He has blocked the Internet, dismantled most of the independent media sources and begun charging fines for “Russo-phobia,” Ioffe said. There is a very real fear among Russian citizens of a civil war, Ioffe explained.

     

    https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2014/03/panelists-new-cold-war-over-ukraine-unlikely

    Our kind host, I note, has not been preparing his bunker much for the coming civil war.
  83. @Triteleia Laxa
    @reiner Tor

    Israel is friendly with Russia. Jews certainly determine Israel's relations. So if Jewish attitudes determined US foreign policy, the US would be friendly with Russia too.

    The US is extremely friendly with Germany. There's obviously much more reason for Jews to dislike Germany. Yet the US loves Germany, especially the US elite class, who go on and on about how great Merkel is.

    You guys are hilarious. Is it the Cold War, foreign power relations, ideological interests, keeping Eastern European allies in line? Or is it just that Jews hate Russia, because Jews are mad, angry and insane, and control everything - even though this makes zero sense given history and obvious Jewish focus on the Holocaust?

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Daniel Chieh, @Wency

    There’s obviously much more reason for Jews to dislike Germany.

    There’s a logic to what you’re saying, but I don’t think it works that way. Jews view Germany as a modern, advanced, cultured state. They have little to no lingering resentment towards Germany or Germans. They only resent the Nazis, i.e. Germany’s version of far-right Republicans who managed to hijack the country through quasi-Republican minoritarian processes in a moment of weakness and temporary insanity.

    But in their view the sins of Czarist anti-Semitism are to some degree imputed to the Russian people, and more broadly the Slav. The Slavs are seen as a perpetually backward, boorish people — basically Europe’s version of Mississippians, whose failures are entirely their own fault. Take a look at Borat (yes, in the real-world Kazakhs aren’t Slavs — but Borat is a Slav). Cohen doesn’t really suggest that Borat’s ways and his anti-Semitism are the fault of a particular ideology or the Kazakh government — they’re just inherent to his people and their culture. It’s only cause for comedy because they’re so poor and weak.

    • Agree: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @Wency

    Really? I always thought that Borat is more of Balkan parody, with hints of Caucasus.... Maybe I was wrong?

    Replies: @Wency, @Dmitry, @Svevlad

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Wency

    Doesn't Borat have an Israeli accent? Speak Yiddish/Hebrew half of the time? Didn't Cohen get his start ripping on Yiddish speaking observant Jews?

    Had Cohen made Borat as racist against any other minority group, I imagine he would be cancelled.

    Only by being racist against Jews, could most people get the joke. He was protected by his Judaism. The joke may be on his character, but his character is extremely anti-Semitic, and the hero of his stories. Could a non-Jew have made that role? Or Cohen said such racist things about any other minority group?

    I also notice that most American Jews see themselves as the descendants of poor villagers from Slavic lands, with Slavic ways and customs; and they consider their ancestors backwards in that respect, which they were! I hear Indian Americans speak disrespectfully about Indian ways and India all of the time too. This is an immigrant trope.

    Replies: @Wency, @Dmitry

    , @Dmitry
    @Wency

    Israeli Jews' view of Russians/Ukrainians/Belarusians seems to have become mainly based on mass immigration to Israel of the recent decades. This is like how English view Poles (as toilet cleaners and bus drivers), or Americans view Mexicans (as maids and builders).

    This is an image forced hard by massive immigration (relative to total populations) of the recent decades.

    So the Israeli view of Russians, is the opposite of how English view Russians. Russian immigrants in the UK are a small, selected cognitive elite which creates a positive impression, but in Israel they have a flood of lower class people.

    Hebrew pop songs on the radio, regularly are about having Russian/Ukrainian girlfriends. The Israeli view of Russians/Ukrainians as nationality that floods them with lower class mass immigration.

    -


    Israeli views of Russian girlfriends. Aggressive ambitious boasting women, and passover meal is bacon and cheese. These ones have subtitles:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys3hDAdJBcc

    Views are usually like slightly more knowledgeable version of Western countries (which were not flooded with mass migration).

    You can see the Israeli pictures even without the Hebrew. I.e. Russians worship cats and alcohol

    https://www.facebook.com/kanipbc/videos/432731743966844
    Of course, this is not like the relation with Germany, which defined not by mass immigration, but by Nazism, Hitler and holocaust.

    If a Jewish middle class Israeli, has a German girlfriend of boyfriend - this is a topic in Israel for news reports and documentaries, interviewing their distressed grandparents.

    Jews and Germans marrying, will be for Israeli television a morality story about healing relations between enemies, in the same way as marriage between Jews and Muslim Palestinians.

    It's the craziness of this forum to claim they are comparable.

    -


    As for the powerful or economically "elite" Jews - this is one of the similarities of America and the Russian Federation. America and Russia are blessed or cursed, with the most world's economically powerful "elite Jews". At least in America, the elite in general have a bit more legitimacy, as the wealth is less based on just owning former public property.

  84. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    Slava Malamund self-identifies as a sports Tweeter. Are they for real? Are they a performance artist? Are they a they, or a he, or a she? I do not know. I am not into generalising from the Tweets of clowns with anxiety issues.

    Julia Ioffe is a native Russian speaker, who has carved out a role for herself as a prominent voice on Russia. She seems proud of her Russian heritage, even if she hates Putin. She is also a Democratic partisan and really hates Donald Trump, so she is consistent in her opinions for her class and profession. She seems no more crazy than is normal.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    They may be clowns with mental illnesses, but unfortunately, they’re clowns who actually get paid for their opinions and there’s not a lot of rationality to be had with them.

    The United States and the EU could try to neutralize the crisis, but that may not be possible due to the rapidly deteriorating situation in Russia. Since the start of the crisis, Putin has been mobilizing for war, and cracking down on anyone opposing the action. He has blocked the Internet, dismantled most of the independent media sources and begun charging fines for “Russo-phobia,” Ioffe said. There is a very real fear among Russian citizens of a civil war, Ioffe explained.

    https://news.cornell.edu/stories/2014/03/panelists-new-cold-war-over-ukraine-unlikely

    Our kind host, I note, has not been preparing his bunker much for the coming civil war.

  85. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    What is the benefit of "less hostile", in practical terms?

    Is it more substantial than contesting Ukraine?

    Sanctions are a double-edged sword, but their use turns the lifting of them, into a potential carrot!

    That is useful when preparing for a change in the administration.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Felix Keverich

    What is the benefit of “less hostile”, in practical terms?

    The ability to get into space without a very big trampoline, for one.

    Obviously there are substantial benefits in not having an atomic superpower with vast human capital being irate at you.

    Sanctions are a double-edged sword, but their use turns the lifting of them, into a potential carrot!

    People aren’t idiots, just because you kidnapped their children doesn’t mean that that they’re about to break into happy plaudits because you might release them.

    That is useful when preparing for a change in the administration.

    Not everyone is appreciative of being color revolutioned. I, for one, think I could do with seeing fewer pride flags in my life.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh


    Not everyone is appreciative of being color revolutioned. I, for one, think I could do with seeing fewer pride flags in my life.
     
    A lot of people want more pride flags in their lives.

    People aren’t idiots, just because you kidnapped their children doesn’t mean that that they’re about to break into happy plaudits because you might release them
     
    Economic growth can legitimise a new administration.

    The ability to get into space without a very big trampoline, for one.

    Obviously there are substantial benefits in not having an atomic superpower with vast human capital being irate at you.
     
    I don't think sanctions are anything but the most minor factor in this "irate" attitude. The US and Russia are competing over the Russian periphery. The US is more powerful, but the stakes are low for it.

    Neither sees its position as weak enough to surrender in their aims. Russia's greatest strength is that it is China's periphery in the same game, but up one level. The US's greatest strengths are obvious.

    Ultimately Russia can partway trade itself for its periphery, or continue like it is, trying to gain it all; while the US can trade the periphery for some hold on Russia, or continue.

    My personal opinion is that Russia's hand is weak until it has secured a stable transition from Putin, as that inevitable moment, is when it is most vulnerable. This need not be rushed.

    If it succeeds, then the US will likely ease off, in order to strengthen their hand in relation to China; though it would mean sacrificing the potential for their strongest hand against China: a liberal Russia and periphery, in the EU.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  86. @Triteleia Laxa
    @AltanBakshi


    Actually Americans have something very enticing to offer, Ukraine and the end of sanctions. Russia’s goal is not China as pre eminent power, but getting back it’s political sphere, which is former USSR, such offer would be quite tempting… But I don’t believe that Americans are pragmatic enough to do such decisions.
     
    Perhaps America thinks that the cost, of losing Eastern Europe from its own political sphere, is too high a price pay for Russian neutrality? Especially since Russia looks vulnerable to flipping anyway, whenever Putin leaves power.

    I noticed one thing recently that almost no one anywhere will ever admit, without acsribing it to luck/evil/or saying it is over.

    US foreign policy has been enormously successful over the last 100 years.

    Everyone says they keep making mistakes and losing, but, in the challenge of global power, the biggest challenge there is, their position always seems to end up improving. Perhaps plenty of them are smart and realistic about their interests?

    China is the most recent exception to this, but 1.4 billion highly intelligent, highly productive people were not going to remain starving peasants forever.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @AltanBakshi, @AltanBakshi, @Daniel Chieh, @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    US foreign policy has been enormously successful over the last 100 years.

    Well when you have a continent sized fortress with oceans on both sides as impregnable walls… Think about UK in 19th century, and multiply it with ten, that’s how lucky America is geographically. America is a Thassalocracy with its own continent! Can you have any better killer combo? Luck is not what made Sparta, Romans or Qin…

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @AltanBakshi

    It's incredible how our elites have wasted such a perfect chance for an isolated island utopia to instead run a modern version of the Athenian League.

  87. @Wency
    @Triteleia Laxa


    There’s obviously much more reason for Jews to dislike Germany.
     
    There's a logic to what you're saying, but I don't think it works that way. Jews view Germany as a modern, advanced, cultured state. They have little to no lingering resentment towards Germany or Germans. They only resent the Nazis, i.e. Germany's version of far-right Republicans who managed to hijack the country through quasi-Republican minoritarian processes in a moment of weakness and temporary insanity.

    But in their view the sins of Czarist anti-Semitism are to some degree imputed to the Russian people, and more broadly the Slav. The Slavs are seen as a perpetually backward, boorish people -- basically Europe's version of Mississippians, whose failures are entirely their own fault. Take a look at Borat (yes, in the real-world Kazakhs aren't Slavs -- but Borat is a Slav). Cohen doesn't really suggest that Borat's ways and his anti-Semitism are the fault of a particular ideology or the Kazakh government -- they're just inherent to his people and their culture. It's only cause for comedy because they're so poor and weak.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @Triteleia Laxa, @Dmitry

    Really? I always thought that Borat is more of Balkan parody, with hints of Caucasus…. Maybe I was wrong?

    • Replies: @Wency
    @AltanBakshi

    The Balkans are Slavic though so I don't follow. The parody is a generic "Nowheresville, Eastern Europe". There are some shades of Yugoslavia but also shades of the Pale of Settlement. When I first heard people telling me about Borat, everyone described him as an "Eastern European guy" (most Americans don't know the word "Slav").

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

    , @Dmitry
    @AltanBakshi

    Borat is an excellent mix of parody of Caucasian people (Azeris/Armenians/Chechens), as well as parody of Central Asian people.

    Borat has a lot of accurate elements of Central Asian culture, including the bride kidnapping Pamela Anderson.

    Bridekidnapping is still common in Central Asia, but it is historically part of the Caucasian culture as well. So Borat could also live happily in Azerbaijan.

    People here claiming there is anything slavic in Borat, must show people have no experience with slavic people.

    Being very dark, hairy people, that have to shave their face every hour, keeping your wife in a cage, teaching that women and dogs are the same, etc. All Borat's jokes are the opposite of Slavic/Northern European culture, but they are accurate parody of elements of Caucasian and Central Asian culture.

    Borat's parody is even not very strong, compared to reality in some of Central Asia like Turkmenistan.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwq9p3R2TTA

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

    , @Svevlad
    @AltanBakshi

    Someone, not sure who now, here at Unz wrote an article about how Borat is basically just one long jewish "polack joke" eg makes fun of east europeans. It's only disguised by weird mishmash of balkans, caucasus and central asia

    Replies: @Svidomyatheart

  88. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    What is the benefit of “less hostile”, in practical terms?

     

    The ability to get into space without a very big trampoline, for one.

    Obviously there are substantial benefits in not having an atomic superpower with vast human capital being irate at you.


    Sanctions are a double-edged sword, but their use turns the lifting of them, into a potential carrot!

     

    People aren't idiots, just because you kidnapped their children doesn't mean that that they're about to break into happy plaudits because you might release them.

    That is useful when preparing for a change in the administration.

     

    Not everyone is appreciative of being color revolutioned. I, for one, think I could do with seeing fewer pride flags in my life.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Not everyone is appreciative of being color revolutioned. I, for one, think I could do with seeing fewer pride flags in my life.

    A lot of people want more pride flags in their lives.

    People aren’t idiots, just because you kidnapped their children doesn’t mean that that they’re about to break into happy plaudits because you might release them

    Economic growth can legitimise a new administration.

    The ability to get into space without a very big trampoline, for one.

    Obviously there are substantial benefits in not having an atomic superpower with vast human capital being irate at you.

    I don’t think sanctions are anything but the most minor factor in this “irate” attitude. The US and Russia are competing over the Russian periphery. The US is more powerful, but the stakes are low for it.

    Neither sees its position as weak enough to surrender in their aims. Russia’s greatest strength is that it is China’s periphery in the same game, but up one level. The US’s greatest strengths are obvious.

    Ultimately Russia can partway trade itself for its periphery, or continue like it is, trying to gain it all; while the US can trade the periphery for some hold on Russia, or continue.

    My personal opinion is that Russia’s hand is weak until it has secured a stable transition from Putin, as that inevitable moment, is when it is most vulnerable. This need not be rushed.

    If it succeeds, then the US will likely ease off, in order to strengthen their hand in relation to China; though it would mean sacrificing the potential for their strongest hand against China: a liberal Russia and periphery, in the EU.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    If it succeeds, then the US will likely ease off, in order to strengthen their hand in relation to China; though it would mean sacrificing the potential for their strongest hand against China: a liberal Russia and periphery, in the EU.

     

    Ultimately, I think the error in your analysis is that you think of each nation as a unitary entity with a leadership that makes decisions for her best good, a bit like in a video game. In practice, its almost never that case and in fact, domestic concerns are often more important than international ones for that reason since domestic concerns impact the decisionmakers much more quickly - its a lot easier to get assassinated by an angry local than bombed from afar, for one.

    We've mentioned that in the US, there are a number of factions which are ideologically and financially entrenched and thus will push the nation into a number of directions that only coincidentally have much to do with the prospering of the "nation" as an unitary concept. Business leaders, for example, tend to want to have better relationships with China in order to take advantage of improved manufacturing, while the military industry would prefer a more hostile status.

    China, itself, also has the CPC which mostly have their interests coincident with "China" insofar as the population goes, but not to an infinite extent. Ultimately, the Party wants to stay in power and will make decisions that will preserve its grip on power; a classic example being the Great Firewall, which has now become an ideological firewall and vastly has altered the landscape and technological independence.

    Russian political power is associated with siloviki, who by nature hold a lot of respect for more military values and ultimately won't see eye to eye with Western aims(not the least, probably the desire to remove them from influence!). As such, their goals are primarily to stay in power and they will pursue a policy that's favorable for themselves and hopefully coincident with the better interest of the population.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  89. @Triteleia Laxa
    @AltanBakshi


    Actually Americans have something very enticing to offer, Ukraine and the end of sanctions. Russia’s goal is not China as pre eminent power, but getting back it’s political sphere, which is former USSR, such offer would be quite tempting… But I don’t believe that Americans are pragmatic enough to do such decisions.
     
    Perhaps America thinks that the cost, of losing Eastern Europe from its own political sphere, is too high a price pay for Russian neutrality? Especially since Russia looks vulnerable to flipping anyway, whenever Putin leaves power.

    I noticed one thing recently that almost no one anywhere will ever admit, without acsribing it to luck/evil/or saying it is over.

    US foreign policy has been enormously successful over the last 100 years.

    Everyone says they keep making mistakes and losing, but, in the challenge of global power, the biggest challenge there is, their position always seems to end up improving. Perhaps plenty of them are smart and realistic about their interests?

    China is the most recent exception to this, but 1.4 billion highly intelligent, highly productive people were not going to remain starving peasants forever.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @AltanBakshi, @AltanBakshi, @Daniel Chieh, @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Everyone says they keep making mistakes and losing, but, in the challenge of global power, the biggest challenge there is, their position always seems to end up improving. Perhaps plenty of them are smart and realistic about their interests?

    Hmm, I think that’s largely just due to bulk and post-WW2, when the US was the only major power left that suffered no internal damage at all and therefore was able to prosecute her advantages quite significantly. Previously, Western European imperialism was capable of producing significant competition to American power.

    Post-Cold War, US total ascendency has increasingly led to futile and expensive efforts that haven’t really improved the US position at all. The US diplomatic position, for example, is in a net total loss state compared to the 90s or the 2000s.

    There are a number of interests working in the US, not just durr juus, but ultimately these powerful domestic forces only vaguely have anything to do with the national interest. One could literally see this in Pentagon advisors, who are maximalists against China or Russia(or both) depending on their paycheck; this is understandable, but becomes increasingly errant when their advice(often based on motivated reasoning, or sometimes wild fantasy) is seen as genuine.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
  90. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Felix Keverich


    You won’t understand anything about American culture and politics until you take into account overwhelming power of Jewry in that country. American “Jewish community” hails from the former Russian empire, and these people convinced themselves that they’ve been wronged by Russia. It’s a cornerstone of their tribal identity so to speak, and that means they are going to use the USA to exact revenge.
     
    Not only is this never how foreign policy works, but I see no reason to believe a single part of it.

    Most Jews I meet, really like Russian culture, for ancestral reasons. They also have much more reason to dislike Germany, but the US gets on fine with Germany.

    As I said, there is no reason to believe any part of your "explanation". Pure projection from you as an individual, I suspect.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin, @Felix Keverich, @Radicalcenter, @Felix Keverich

    Not only is this never how foreign policy works, but I see no reason to believe a single part of it.

    That is exactly how policymaking works in the US!

    To give you an example, Russiagate was an asinine conspiracy theory pumped into US collective consciousness by hysterical Jewish opinion-makers. Soon enough US government found itself retaliating for an “attack” that never happened. US department of Homeland Security declares that “white supremacist militants” is major threat in the US, because fucking Jews are still afraid of pogroms. 😂

    Jews are highly neurotic people, prone to frequent bouts of hysteria. But, thanks to near-total control of the media, Jewish hysterics shape politicial reality in the US.

    • Agree: Radicalcenter
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Felix Keverich


    Jews are highly neurotic people, prone to frequent bouts of hysteria. But, thanks to near-total control of the media, Jewish hysterics shape politicial reality in the US.

     

    While I think it can be exaggerated, it does seem true that there's a "highly anxious" segment of Jews that dominate the political discourse, hold an enormous amount of power and view the world in a highly warped manner. I partly blame their upbringing, knowing a few Jewish friends who were basically brought up constantly being exposed to Holocaust information from childhood; its almost a kind of morbid, self-harming ritual that they seem to share as a rite of growing up.

    Doubtlessly it provides a sense of bonds, but its not surprising that their terminal values become very alien to almost everyone else.
  91. @Wency
    @Triteleia Laxa


    There’s obviously much more reason for Jews to dislike Germany.
     
    There's a logic to what you're saying, but I don't think it works that way. Jews view Germany as a modern, advanced, cultured state. They have little to no lingering resentment towards Germany or Germans. They only resent the Nazis, i.e. Germany's version of far-right Republicans who managed to hijack the country through quasi-Republican minoritarian processes in a moment of weakness and temporary insanity.

    But in their view the sins of Czarist anti-Semitism are to some degree imputed to the Russian people, and more broadly the Slav. The Slavs are seen as a perpetually backward, boorish people -- basically Europe's version of Mississippians, whose failures are entirely their own fault. Take a look at Borat (yes, in the real-world Kazakhs aren't Slavs -- but Borat is a Slav). Cohen doesn't really suggest that Borat's ways and his anti-Semitism are the fault of a particular ideology or the Kazakh government -- they're just inherent to his people and their culture. It's only cause for comedy because they're so poor and weak.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @Triteleia Laxa, @Dmitry

    Doesn’t Borat have an Israeli accent? Speak Yiddish/Hebrew half of the time? Didn’t Cohen get his start ripping on Yiddish speaking observant Jews?

    Had Cohen made Borat as racist against any other minority group, I imagine he would be cancelled.

    Only by being racist against Jews, could most people get the joke. He was protected by his Judaism. The joke may be on his character, but his character is extremely anti-Semitic, and the hero of his stories. Could a non-Jew have made that role? Or Cohen said such racist things about any other minority group?

    I also notice that most American Jews see themselves as the descendants of poor villagers from Slavic lands, with Slavic ways and customs; and they consider their ancestors backwards in that respect, which they were! I hear Indian Americans speak disrespectfully about Indian ways and India all of the time too. This is an immigrant trope.

    • Replies: @Wency
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Doesn’t Borat have an Israeli accent? Speak Yiddish/Hebrew half of the time?
     
    I think this is merely because Cohen speaks Hebrew fluently -- his mother is Israeli. And it sounds appropriately weird and foreign to Anglo ears.

    Had Cohen made Borat as racist against any other minority group, I imagine he would be cancelled.
     
    This is true. Though he could have focused on some other, almost incomprehensible stereotype. It could have been left-handed people. But it's probably a good guess that anti-Semitism was on the tip of his tongue already.

    On your latter points, I don't think there's an either-or here (nor is there a single, universal Jewish behavior in these matters). You can mix genuine self-deprecation with "My fellow white people" sorts of self-deprecation where you pretend to count yourself among the outgroup just so you can criticize it more viciously. And you can mix both of those with direct attacks on an outgroup where you don't pretend to even belong to it. It's funny you cite Indian migrants, who tend to be upper-caste and are also probably one of the immigrant groups that sees the most distance between themselves and the inhabitants of their homeland.

    I've known plenty of recent migrants from other places that only spoke praises of their homelands. That, too, can be an immigrant trope ("Why did you even leave?") I, for the record, am a Slavic-American, and my parents would never speak ill of the ancestral home or tolerate such speak in others -- all of its troubles were to be blamed on great power meddling and the Communists.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Dmitry
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Borat is a very accurate parody of Caucasian and Central Asian people from the postsoviet space, as he says. ​His brown hairy appearance, is 100% stereotype of Caucasian nationalities, and his clothing is from the 1990s postsoviet elite.

    Elites of Central Asia and Caucasia, have sent their children to be educated in private schools in the UK, since the 1990s.

    UK is always full of the elites from these nationalities, studying in private schools and universities.

    Cohen was a bourgeois Jewish British comedian from Cambridge University, and born in 1971.

    It's likely that Cohen, has met students, that came from those countries, and hence why his parody could be so accurate. Cohen was born in 1971.

    Elites of Central and Caucasia have started to send a flood of their children to elite schools and universities of 1990s UK.


    -

    Nowadays it will be different. But Borat was perhaps not even that far from the reality of culture shock, that those nationalities would have when they had opened to the West.

    And he has copied a lot of things about them accurately.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1AQaFcn_r


    Borat have an Israeli accent? Speak Yiddish/
     
    Borat is Caucasian or Central Asian from the postsoviet space. You can see these stereotypes everything about him, his clothing, his hairstyle, and his relationship with women.

    Cohen has also made a very Israeli stereotype, but it wasn't enjoyable, as the character is not sympathetic like Borat.

    It seems like he never managed to make else anything like Borat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kaJaDx51iw

    Replies: @Dmitry, @AltanBakshi

  92. @Felix Keverich
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Not only is this never how foreign policy works, but I see no reason to believe a single part of it.
     
    That is exactly how policymaking works in the US!

    To give you an example, Russiagate was an asinine conspiracy theory pumped into US collective consciousness by hysterical Jewish opinion-makers. Soon enough US government found itself retaliating for an "attack" that never happened. US department of Homeland Security declares that "white supremacist militants" is major threat in the US, because fucking Jews are still afraid of pogroms. 😂

    Jews are highly neurotic people, prone to frequent bouts of hysteria. But, thanks to near-total control of the media, Jewish hysterics shape politicial reality in the US.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Jews are highly neurotic people, prone to frequent bouts of hysteria. But, thanks to near-total control of the media, Jewish hysterics shape politicial reality in the US.

    While I think it can be exaggerated, it does seem true that there’s a “highly anxious” segment of Jews that dominate the political discourse, hold an enormous amount of power and view the world in a highly warped manner. I partly blame their upbringing, knowing a few Jewish friends who were basically brought up constantly being exposed to Holocaust information from childhood; its almost a kind of morbid, self-harming ritual that they seem to share as a rite of growing up.

    Doubtlessly it provides a sense of bonds, but its not surprising that their terminal values become very alien to almost everyone else.

  93. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Felix Keverich


    You won’t understand anything about American culture and politics until you take into account overwhelming power of Jewry in that country. American “Jewish community” hails from the former Russian empire, and these people convinced themselves that they’ve been wronged by Russia. It’s a cornerstone of their tribal identity so to speak, and that means they are going to use the USA to exact revenge.
     
    Not only is this never how foreign policy works, but I see no reason to believe a single part of it.

    Most Jews I meet, really like Russian culture, for ancestral reasons. They also have much more reason to dislike Germany, but the US gets on fine with Germany.

    As I said, there is no reason to believe any part of your "explanation". Pure projection from you as an individual, I suspect.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin, @Felix Keverich, @Radicalcenter, @Felix Keverich

    Interesting. I only personally know one lady, a friend’s girlfriend, who is Jewish, in her 40s, and was born and raised in the USSR / Russia. Native Russian speaker, of course. She actively dislikes Russia and Russians and says that she does not consider herself Russian. Nice.

    She makes quite clear that her identity and loyalty are Jewish, not Russian or, when it comes down to it, not American. Just one bit of anecdotal evidence, which does not of course disprove or obviate the need to consider your very different experience with such people.

  94. @reiner Tor
    @angmoh

    Yes, but the case for a Chinese land grab would require a rapidly expanding Chinese population there, and instead there’s a collapse in the neighboring Chinese population as well.

    Replies: @sudden death, @Radicalcenter

    I respectfully disagree that low population, high average age, and/or low fertility rate in Chinese provinces bordering Russia is any solace to Russia.

    What would stop china from readily moving millions of families to the once-Russia Far East from provinces that do not border Russia, if Russia collapses?

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Radicalcenter


    What would stop china from readily moving millions of families to the once-Russia Far East from provinces that do not border Russia, if Russia collapses?
     
    The same thing that prevents China from readily moving millions of families to their own North Eastern provinces right now, hence their rapid depopulation.

    Replies: @Radicalcenter

  95. The climate in Vladivostok is closer to Montreal than Harbin. It really would have done Russia a lot of good to not lose the Liaodong peninsula in 1905.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Znzn

    If they really wanted to keep LiaoDong, then they should have conquered (outer) Mongolia (the Gobi is a decent natural border) and all of Manchuria. Maybe swing down into Korea too and swamp it with settlers while deporting the natives into let's say Turkistan or Taymyr or some other useless territory. That would be pretty neat, but too bad.

    Replies: @Znzn, @Yellowface Anon, @Boomthorkell

  96. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh


    Not everyone is appreciative of being color revolutioned. I, for one, think I could do with seeing fewer pride flags in my life.
     
    A lot of people want more pride flags in their lives.

    People aren’t idiots, just because you kidnapped their children doesn’t mean that that they’re about to break into happy plaudits because you might release them
     
    Economic growth can legitimise a new administration.

    The ability to get into space without a very big trampoline, for one.

    Obviously there are substantial benefits in not having an atomic superpower with vast human capital being irate at you.
     
    I don't think sanctions are anything but the most minor factor in this "irate" attitude. The US and Russia are competing over the Russian periphery. The US is more powerful, but the stakes are low for it.

    Neither sees its position as weak enough to surrender in their aims. Russia's greatest strength is that it is China's periphery in the same game, but up one level. The US's greatest strengths are obvious.

    Ultimately Russia can partway trade itself for its periphery, or continue like it is, trying to gain it all; while the US can trade the periphery for some hold on Russia, or continue.

    My personal opinion is that Russia's hand is weak until it has secured a stable transition from Putin, as that inevitable moment, is when it is most vulnerable. This need not be rushed.

    If it succeeds, then the US will likely ease off, in order to strengthen their hand in relation to China; though it would mean sacrificing the potential for their strongest hand against China: a liberal Russia and periphery, in the EU.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    If it succeeds, then the US will likely ease off, in order to strengthen their hand in relation to China; though it would mean sacrificing the potential for their strongest hand against China: a liberal Russia and periphery, in the EU.

    Ultimately, I think the error in your analysis is that you think of each nation as a unitary entity with a leadership that makes decisions for her best good, a bit like in a video game. In practice, its almost never that case and in fact, domestic concerns are often more important than international ones for that reason since domestic concerns impact the decisionmakers much more quickly – its a lot easier to get assassinated by an angry local than bombed from afar, for one.

    We’ve mentioned that in the US, there are a number of factions which are ideologically and financially entrenched and thus will push the nation into a number of directions that only coincidentally have much to do with the prospering of the “nation” as an unitary concept. Business leaders, for example, tend to want to have better relationships with China in order to take advantage of improved manufacturing, while the military industry would prefer a more hostile status.

    China, itself, also has the CPC which mostly have their interests coincident with “China” insofar as the population goes, but not to an infinite extent. Ultimately, the Party wants to stay in power and will make decisions that will preserve its grip on power; a classic example being the Great Firewall, which has now become an ideological firewall and vastly has altered the landscape and technological independence.

    Russian political power is associated with siloviki, who by nature hold a lot of respect for more military values and ultimately won’t see eye to eye with Western aims(not the least, probably the desire to remove them from influence!). As such, their goals are primarily to stay in power and they will pursue a policy that’s favorable for themselves and hopefully coincident with the better interest of the population.

    • Agree: Svevlad
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    Yes, my analysis is a simplification. It is to show the international acrors' rational institutional interests. They will deviate from these and disagree on them, but this is the lodestone for international relations.

    You'll also notice that it adequately explains US actions.

    One doesn't need alternative explanations, when an institution is acting plausibly within its rational interests.

    You're also right that these are strongly mediated by the Democratic party + security state, CCP and Siloviki's respective needs to hold onto power, but those needs tend to be congruent with international power requirements. That type of success is great for legitimacy.

    Sometimes I wonder whether the US is too guilty of this rationality as a state institution. They seem very ready to sacrifice domestic policy for empire. Immigration, deficits, global deployment of military resources, extreme virtue signaling...these all give them more powet for empire, but at the expense of domestic coherence.

    Progressivism, as it currently is constituted, could be the ideology designed for international governance, at the expense of the US population. No wonder the UN loves it.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  97. @AltanBakshi
    @Wency

    Really? I always thought that Borat is more of Balkan parody, with hints of Caucasus.... Maybe I was wrong?

    Replies: @Wency, @Dmitry, @Svevlad

    The Balkans are Slavic though so I don’t follow. The parody is a generic “Nowheresville, Eastern Europe”. There are some shades of Yugoslavia but also shades of the Pale of Settlement. When I first heard people telling me about Borat, everyone described him as an “Eastern European guy” (most Americans don’t know the word “Slav”).

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @Wency

    Well to me most stereotypically Balkan people are not noble and God fearing Serbs, but Albanians, Balkan gypsies and Vlakhs. Kazakhstan parts of Borat were by the way filmed in Vlakhia, also known by the fake name of Romania...

    I do know that pseudo-Romania is not wholly situated in the Balkans.

  98. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    If it succeeds, then the US will likely ease off, in order to strengthen their hand in relation to China; though it would mean sacrificing the potential for their strongest hand against China: a liberal Russia and periphery, in the EU.

     

    Ultimately, I think the error in your analysis is that you think of each nation as a unitary entity with a leadership that makes decisions for her best good, a bit like in a video game. In practice, its almost never that case and in fact, domestic concerns are often more important than international ones for that reason since domestic concerns impact the decisionmakers much more quickly - its a lot easier to get assassinated by an angry local than bombed from afar, for one.

    We've mentioned that in the US, there are a number of factions which are ideologically and financially entrenched and thus will push the nation into a number of directions that only coincidentally have much to do with the prospering of the "nation" as an unitary concept. Business leaders, for example, tend to want to have better relationships with China in order to take advantage of improved manufacturing, while the military industry would prefer a more hostile status.

    China, itself, also has the CPC which mostly have their interests coincident with "China" insofar as the population goes, but not to an infinite extent. Ultimately, the Party wants to stay in power and will make decisions that will preserve its grip on power; a classic example being the Great Firewall, which has now become an ideological firewall and vastly has altered the landscape and technological independence.

    Russian political power is associated with siloviki, who by nature hold a lot of respect for more military values and ultimately won't see eye to eye with Western aims(not the least, probably the desire to remove them from influence!). As such, their goals are primarily to stay in power and they will pursue a policy that's favorable for themselves and hopefully coincident with the better interest of the population.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Yes, my analysis is a simplification. It is to show the international acrors’ rational institutional interests. They will deviate from these and disagree on them, but this is the lodestone for international relations.

    You’ll also notice that it adequately explains US actions.

    One doesn’t need alternative explanations, when an institution is acting plausibly within its rational interests.

    You’re also right that these are strongly mediated by the Democratic party + security state, CCP and Siloviki’s respective needs to hold onto power, but those needs tend to be congruent with international power requirements. That type of success is great for legitimacy.

    Sometimes I wonder whether the US is too guilty of this rationality as a state institution. They seem very ready to sacrifice domestic policy for empire. Immigration, deficits, global deployment of military resources, extreme virtue signaling…these all give them more powet for empire, but at the expense of domestic coherence.

    Progressivism, as it currently is constituted, could be the ideology designed for international governance, at the expense of the US population. No wonder the UN loves it.

    • Disagree: Daniel Chieh
    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Immigration, deficits, global deployment of military resources, extreme virtue signaling…these all give them more powet for empire, but at the expense of domestic coherence.
     
    No, I think you're giving too much credit to it. A good model in a lot of online groups is to see how easily the LGBTBBQ gang often ends up taking over or having a prominent role in its governance: I've been in the open source and various hobby groups for a decade plus now, and its fascinating to see its recurring. As a friend of mine noted, the XX chromosome reddit for women has an weird dominance of moderators that are transexuals(so actually men!) and this actually has relevant for the world of information as a whole, because they also dominate Wikipedia, seen as a "source of truth."

    Its not really because they have a compelling interest in the group's thriving and indeed, often drive it into extinction. Its basically because they have the time(no family, etc), schelling point(sense of deviance), and are highly motivated as a kind of "intolerant minority"(in fact, many admit it themselves as they believe it is "survival"), so they primarily and overwhelmingly serve their own interest, and sometimes turn the entire organization into a vehicle for their interests.

    As their ultimate goals often do not coincide with those now under their rule, their goals often do not provide the same kind of success, and their basic calculus of what is important is quite different. That's how you get things like WASBAPPING insisting that Russia and China needs to be nuked until they have gay parades in their capitals, and that a world that allows their evil is not worth having.

    When coupled with notions like Putin's, "Why would we want a world without Russia?", you can see how it rapidly is existential for the decisionmakers(or is perceived as such), even if it isn't actually existential for the states they are in.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Svevlad, @Wency

  99. @Svevlad
    @Anatoly Karlin

    There's a reason why I'm for "extermination wars" eg that any war and invasion should be fought to it's most extreme logical conclusion: annihilation.

    It saves precious memory-space, simplifies history, and prevents one side from committing embarrassing idiocies over and over again.

    Eg, stupidity must be brutally punished, except the punishment is instant death, even on a collective level. No second chances, no anything. Ultradarwinism.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Why do you choose to come across as a total psychopath?

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I don't want to, but my patience reserves have been emptied for quite a while

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  100. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Wency

    Doesn't Borat have an Israeli accent? Speak Yiddish/Hebrew half of the time? Didn't Cohen get his start ripping on Yiddish speaking observant Jews?

    Had Cohen made Borat as racist against any other minority group, I imagine he would be cancelled.

    Only by being racist against Jews, could most people get the joke. He was protected by his Judaism. The joke may be on his character, but his character is extremely anti-Semitic, and the hero of his stories. Could a non-Jew have made that role? Or Cohen said such racist things about any other minority group?

    I also notice that most American Jews see themselves as the descendants of poor villagers from Slavic lands, with Slavic ways and customs; and they consider their ancestors backwards in that respect, which they were! I hear Indian Americans speak disrespectfully about Indian ways and India all of the time too. This is an immigrant trope.

    Replies: @Wency, @Dmitry

    Doesn’t Borat have an Israeli accent? Speak Yiddish/Hebrew half of the time?

    I think this is merely because Cohen speaks Hebrew fluently — his mother is Israeli. And it sounds appropriately weird and foreign to Anglo ears.

    Had Cohen made Borat as racist against any other minority group, I imagine he would be cancelled.

    This is true. Though he could have focused on some other, almost incomprehensible stereotype. It could have been left-handed people. But it’s probably a good guess that anti-Semitism was on the tip of his tongue already.

    On your latter points, I don’t think there’s an either-or here (nor is there a single, universal Jewish behavior in these matters). You can mix genuine self-deprecation with “My fellow white people” sorts of self-deprecation where you pretend to count yourself among the outgroup just so you can criticize it more viciously. And you can mix both of those with direct attacks on an outgroup where you don’t pretend to even belong to it. It’s funny you cite Indian migrants, who tend to be upper-caste and are also probably one of the immigrant groups that sees the most distance between themselves and the inhabitants of their homeland.

    I’ve known plenty of recent migrants from other places that only spoke praises of their homelands. That, too, can be an immigrant trope (“Why did you even leave?”) I, for the record, am a Slavic-American, and my parents would never speak ill of the ancestral home or tolerate such speak in others — all of its troubles were to be blamed on great power meddling and the Communists.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Wency

    Your post makes sense.


    It’s funny you cite Indian migrants, who tend to be upper-caste and are also probably one of the immigrant groups that sees the most distance between themselves and the inhabitants of their homeland
     
    Have you seen White Tiger? It is on Netflix, excellent and very, very interesting. It also stars Priyanka Chopra, who is both beautiful and too much woman for this world.

    Replies: @utu

  101. @Wency
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Doesn’t Borat have an Israeli accent? Speak Yiddish/Hebrew half of the time?
     
    I think this is merely because Cohen speaks Hebrew fluently -- his mother is Israeli. And it sounds appropriately weird and foreign to Anglo ears.

    Had Cohen made Borat as racist against any other minority group, I imagine he would be cancelled.
     
    This is true. Though he could have focused on some other, almost incomprehensible stereotype. It could have been left-handed people. But it's probably a good guess that anti-Semitism was on the tip of his tongue already.

    On your latter points, I don't think there's an either-or here (nor is there a single, universal Jewish behavior in these matters). You can mix genuine self-deprecation with "My fellow white people" sorts of self-deprecation where you pretend to count yourself among the outgroup just so you can criticize it more viciously. And you can mix both of those with direct attacks on an outgroup where you don't pretend to even belong to it. It's funny you cite Indian migrants, who tend to be upper-caste and are also probably one of the immigrant groups that sees the most distance between themselves and the inhabitants of their homeland.

    I've known plenty of recent migrants from other places that only spoke praises of their homelands. That, too, can be an immigrant trope ("Why did you even leave?") I, for the record, am a Slavic-American, and my parents would never speak ill of the ancestral home or tolerate such speak in others -- all of its troubles were to be blamed on great power meddling and the Communists.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Your post makes sense.

    It’s funny you cite Indian migrants, who tend to be upper-caste and are also probably one of the immigrant groups that sees the most distance between themselves and the inhabitants of their homeland

    Have you seen White Tiger? It is on Netflix, excellent and very, very interesting. It also stars Priyanka Chopra, who is both beautiful and too much woman for this world.

    • Replies: @utu
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I liked White Tiger and also The Wedding Guest I saw more recently but I had mixed feelings about its amorality.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  102. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Wency

    Your post makes sense.


    It’s funny you cite Indian migrants, who tend to be upper-caste and are also probably one of the immigrant groups that sees the most distance between themselves and the inhabitants of their homeland
     
    Have you seen White Tiger? It is on Netflix, excellent and very, very interesting. It also stars Priyanka Chopra, who is both beautiful and too much woman for this world.

    Replies: @utu

    I liked White Tiger and also The Wedding Guest I saw more recently but I had mixed feelings about its amorality.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @utu

    I like the amorality, but I don't understand the lack of compassion. It just doesn't square with my sense of existence.

  103. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    What is the benefit of "less hostile", in practical terms?

    Is it more substantial than contesting Ukraine?

    Sanctions are a double-edged sword, but their use turns the lifting of them, into a potential carrot!

    That is useful when preparing for a change in the administration.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Felix Keverich

    I think that “Laxa” accidentally raises important point. Putin’s restraint means that US faced very little cost from its continued confrontation with Russia. The costs incurred by US client regimes in Gruzia and the Ukraine do not figure into American calculations. Therefore the US, malignant and stupid as it is, feels no compulsion to end its conflict with Russia. US is comfortable with conflict as its default state.

    Suppose the goal of Russian foreign policy is to work out modus vivendi with Washington. Russia would first need to inflict some actual pain in order to change American calculus, and make peace desirable for Washington in the first place.

    How?

    US press is offering some interesting ideas: supplying satellite technology to Iran, arming Taleban, hacking/cyberwarfare etc. All of which are mere hoaxes at the moment, but something that Russia could potentially be doing…

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Felix Keverich


    US press is offering some interesting ideas: supplying satellite technology to Iran, arming Taleban, hacking/cyberwarfare etc. All of which are mere hoaxes at the moment, but something that Russia could potentially be doing…

     

    I do think that Russia probably isn't trying to hunt down the ransomware criminals too hard anymore.

    https://www.dw.com/en/putin-russia-open-to-hacker-exchange-with-us/a-57871507

    The fact that Putin offered to crack down suggests that after all of the constant hostility to Russia, the authorities aren't cracking down too hard on hackers so as long as they do not attack Russian-language companies. So that might be "incentive" for the West to play nice.

    https://krebsonsecurity.com/2021/05/try-this-one-weird-trick-russian-hackers-hate/

    In a Twitter discussion last week on ransomware attacks, KrebsOnSecurity noted that virtually all ransomware strains have a built-in failsafe designed to cover the backsides of the malware purveyors: They simply will not install on a Microsoft Windows computer that already has one of many types of virtual keyboards installed — such as Russian or Ukrainian. So many readers had questions in response to the tweet that I thought it was worth a blog post exploring this one weird cyber defense trick.
     

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

  104. @Wency
    @AltanBakshi

    The Balkans are Slavic though so I don't follow. The parody is a generic "Nowheresville, Eastern Europe". There are some shades of Yugoslavia but also shades of the Pale of Settlement. When I first heard people telling me about Borat, everyone described him as an "Eastern European guy" (most Americans don't know the word "Slav").

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

    Well to me most stereotypically Balkan people are not noble and God fearing Serbs, but Albanians, Balkan gypsies and Vlakhs. Kazakhstan parts of Borat were by the way filmed in Vlakhia, also known by the fake name of Romania…

    [MORE]

    I do know that pseudo-Romania is not wholly situated in the Balkans.

  105. @AltanBakshi
    @Wency

    Really? I always thought that Borat is more of Balkan parody, with hints of Caucasus.... Maybe I was wrong?

    Replies: @Wency, @Dmitry, @Svevlad

    Borat is an excellent mix of parody of Caucasian people (Azeris/Armenians/Chechens), as well as parody of Central Asian people.

    Borat has a lot of accurate elements of Central Asian culture, including the bride kidnapping Pamela Anderson.

    Bridekidnapping is still common in Central Asia, but it is historically part of the Caucasian culture as well. So Borat could also live happily in Azerbaijan.

    People here claiming there is anything slavic in Borat, must show people have no experience with slavic people.

    Being very dark, hairy people, that have to shave their face every hour, keeping your wife in a cage, teaching that women and dogs are the same, etc. All Borat’s jokes are the opposite of Slavic/Northern European culture, but they are accurate parody of elements of Caucasian and Central Asian culture.

    Borat’s parody is even not very strong, compared to reality in some of Central Asia like Turkmenistan.

    • Replies: @Commentator Mike
    @Dmitry


    Borat’s parody is even not very strong, compared to reality in some of Central Asia like Turkmenistan.
     
    I think what that Turkmen strongman did is commendable and worthy of praise rather than mockery (that's if you're a dog lover as most Europeans are). Muslims absolutely hate dogs and consider them haram and second only to pigs on the list of animals they revile. So this Muslim putting a dog on a pedestal is really something - probably considered blasphemy and idolatry by most Muslims. All power to the Turkmen strongman!

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  106. @Felix Keverich
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I think that "Laxa" accidentally raises important point. Putin's restraint means that US faced very little cost from its continued confrontation with Russia. The costs incurred by US client regimes in Gruzia and the Ukraine do not figure into American calculations. Therefore the US, malignant and stupid as it is, feels no compulsion to end its conflict with Russia. US is comfortable with conflict as its default state.

    Suppose the goal of Russian foreign policy is to work out modus vivendi with Washington. Russia would first need to inflict some actual pain in order to change American calculus, and make peace desirable for Washington in the first place.

    How?

    US press is offering some interesting ideas: supplying satellite technology to Iran, arming Taleban, hacking/cyberwarfare etc. All of which are mere hoaxes at the moment, but something that Russia could potentially be doing...

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    US press is offering some interesting ideas: supplying satellite technology to Iran, arming Taleban, hacking/cyberwarfare etc. All of which are mere hoaxes at the moment, but something that Russia could potentially be doing…

    I do think that Russia probably isn’t trying to hunt down the ransomware criminals too hard anymore.

    https://www.dw.com/en/putin-russia-open-to-hacker-exchange-with-us/a-57871507

    The fact that Putin offered to crack down suggests that after all of the constant hostility to Russia, the authorities aren’t cracking down too hard on hackers so as long as they do not attack Russian-language companies. So that might be “incentive” for the West to play nice.

    https://krebsonsecurity.com/2021/05/try-this-one-weird-trick-russian-hackers-hate/

    In a Twitter discussion last week on ransomware attacks, KrebsOnSecurity noted that virtually all ransomware strains have a built-in failsafe designed to cover the backsides of the malware purveyors: They simply will not install on a Microsoft Windows computer that already has one of many types of virtual keyboards installed — such as Russian or Ukrainian. So many readers had questions in response to the tweet that I thought it was worth a blog post exploring this one weird cyber defense trick.

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @Daniel Chieh

    This even assumes the Ransomware guys weren't already US, government or not.

    It would be funnier and better if they were genuine foreign cyber criminals. A kind of cyberprivateer, almost.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

  107. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Svevlad

    Why do you choose to come across as a total psychopath?

    Replies: @Svevlad

    I don’t want to, but my patience reserves have been emptied for quite a while

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Svevlad

    If you don't want to, why are you choosing to? You have complete free choice in what you write.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Boomthorkell

  108. @AltanBakshi
    @Wency

    Really? I always thought that Borat is more of Balkan parody, with hints of Caucasus.... Maybe I was wrong?

    Replies: @Wency, @Dmitry, @Svevlad

    Someone, not sure who now, here at Unz wrote an article about how Borat is basically just one long jewish “polack joke” eg makes fun of east europeans. It’s only disguised by weird mishmash of balkans, caucasus and central asia

    • Replies: @Svidomyatheart
    @Svevlad

    It was Steve Sailer irrc

  109. You have the fly in the ointment called the JMSDF and the JASDF.

  110. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    Yes, my analysis is a simplification. It is to show the international acrors' rational institutional interests. They will deviate from these and disagree on them, but this is the lodestone for international relations.

    You'll also notice that it adequately explains US actions.

    One doesn't need alternative explanations, when an institution is acting plausibly within its rational interests.

    You're also right that these are strongly mediated by the Democratic party + security state, CCP and Siloviki's respective needs to hold onto power, but those needs tend to be congruent with international power requirements. That type of success is great for legitimacy.

    Sometimes I wonder whether the US is too guilty of this rationality as a state institution. They seem very ready to sacrifice domestic policy for empire. Immigration, deficits, global deployment of military resources, extreme virtue signaling...these all give them more powet for empire, but at the expense of domestic coherence.

    Progressivism, as it currently is constituted, could be the ideology designed for international governance, at the expense of the US population. No wonder the UN loves it.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Immigration, deficits, global deployment of military resources, extreme virtue signaling…these all give them more powet for empire, but at the expense of domestic coherence.

    No, I think you’re giving too much credit to it. A good model in a lot of online groups is to see how easily the LGBTBBQ gang often ends up taking over or having a prominent role in its governance: I’ve been in the open source and various hobby groups for a decade plus now, and its fascinating to see its recurring. As a friend of mine noted, the XX chromosome reddit for women has an weird dominance of moderators that are transexuals(so actually men!) and this actually has relevant for the world of information as a whole, because they also dominate Wikipedia, seen as a “source of truth.”

    Its not really because they have a compelling interest in the group’s thriving and indeed, often drive it into extinction. Its basically because they have the time(no family, etc), schelling point(sense of deviance), and are highly motivated as a kind of “intolerant minority”(in fact, many admit it themselves as they believe it is “survival”), so they primarily and overwhelmingly serve their own interest, and sometimes turn the entire organization into a vehicle for their interests.

    As their ultimate goals often do not coincide with those now under their rule, their goals often do not provide the same kind of success, and their basic calculus of what is important is quite different. That’s how you get things like WASBAPPING insisting that Russia and China needs to be nuked until they have gay parades in their capitals, and that a world that allows their evil is not worth having.

    When coupled with notions like Putin’s, “Why would we want a world without Russia?”, you can see how it rapidly is existential for the decisionmakers(or is perceived as such), even if it isn’t actually existential for the states they are in.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    You're giving a lot of credit to some aggressive Redditors; but perhaps you're right, and this Great Awokening really is spinning into a farcical version of the Cultural Revolution.

    While open-minded, I can't see that it has affected the actions of the US on the world stage yet. I also notice that it is an old, straight white man, with a history of politically incorrect slip ups, in office as President; while a harsh on crime Attorney General is Veep. It does not look anything like a revolutionary government.

    I am still very open to the idea that the US is in danger of turning into some weird revolutionary state, that goes beyond its plausible rational interests, and threatens areas of peace and stability, but, while I often find progressivism cloying, stupid, inimical to psychological health and conformist, I've seen a lot worse.



    I also appreciate, that as an imperial power, the US has threatened areas of peace and stability in the recent past. I just don't think that this is extraordinary or specific to the US. It is normal throughout all of history. The only thing that has changed is that the US's reach is global, because of modern transport and communications technology.

    I would advise the US, that imperial power, like the one true ring(!), should be avoided, because it corrupts the bearer, but my warning would not be novel and the types of people who would listen my warning, only end up in government by accident.

    Rather self-assuredly, I feel that I would throw the ring into the fire, as easily as I would pick it up, but then I lack all ambition to do so. I imagine these two are related.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    , @Svevlad
    @Daniel Chieh

    So, the eunuchs return through the small door.

    , @Wency
    @Daniel Chieh


    Its basically because they have the time(no family, etc), schelling point(sense of deviance), and are highly motivated as a kind of “intolerant minority”(in fact, many admit it themselves as they believe it is “survival”)
     
    Surely another factor here is that a lot of transexuals are autists, with corresponding monomania.

    It's basically impossible to "win" any sort of online contest with an autist (the winning move is not to play), and it's impossible for most autists to win any sort of human contest that isn't online (except maybe chess). Put these two facts together, and Reddit and Wikipedia should start to make a lot more sense.
  111. @utu
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I liked White Tiger and also The Wedding Guest I saw more recently but I had mixed feelings about its amorality.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    I like the amorality, but I don’t understand the lack of compassion. It just doesn’t square with my sense of existence.

  112. @Svevlad
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I don't want to, but my patience reserves have been emptied for quite a while

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    If you don’t want to, why are you choosing to? You have complete free choice in what you write.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Triteleia Laxa

    The internet works on a hot-take basis. The more deranged you look, the more attention you get. And when you get a follower base, you can actually start acting more reasonable.

    And I'm a Balkanoid, we're notoriously capricious and get carried away in affect. Pick which one you want to be true, heeh

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    , @Boomthorkell
    @Triteleia Laxa

    One way to understand it is to realize that, through worse suffering, maybe people overall will suffer less.

    If every is a Hell that leaves even the victor unhappy and ruined, maybe there will be fewer wars. At the very least, no one can act smug about it.

    Svevlad is just taking it to the next reasonable level of unreasonable violence and suffering.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad, @Triteleia Laxa

  113. @Znzn
    The climate in Vladivostok is closer to Montreal than Harbin. It really would have done Russia a lot of good to not lose the Liaodong peninsula in 1905.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    If they really wanted to keep LiaoDong, then they should have conquered (outer) Mongolia (the Gobi is a decent natural border) and all of Manchuria. Maybe swing down into Korea too and swamp it with settlers while deporting the natives into let’s say Turkistan or Taymyr or some other useless territory. That would be pretty neat, but too bad.

    • Replies: @Znzn
    @Svevlad

    Does the Battle of Mukden ring any bells?

    Replies: @Svevlad

    , @Yellowface Anon
    @Svevlad

    You could easily swamp Mongolia, actually easier than Kazakhstan since the population density is still even lower, but Korea was too populous to do that.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

    , @Boomthorkell
    @Svevlad

    Russia tried its big Manchuria move, exactly as stated, in 1640. The Cossacks lost to the Manchu, the issue was settled for the time, and the East was populated at a correspondingly slower rate thanks to missing out on the best land.

    Had China been further partitioned, and peace with Japan arranged over Korea, it's possible this might have become to pass in the early 20th-century.

  114. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Wency

    Doesn't Borat have an Israeli accent? Speak Yiddish/Hebrew half of the time? Didn't Cohen get his start ripping on Yiddish speaking observant Jews?

    Had Cohen made Borat as racist against any other minority group, I imagine he would be cancelled.

    Only by being racist against Jews, could most people get the joke. He was protected by his Judaism. The joke may be on his character, but his character is extremely anti-Semitic, and the hero of his stories. Could a non-Jew have made that role? Or Cohen said such racist things about any other minority group?

    I also notice that most American Jews see themselves as the descendants of poor villagers from Slavic lands, with Slavic ways and customs; and they consider their ancestors backwards in that respect, which they were! I hear Indian Americans speak disrespectfully about Indian ways and India all of the time too. This is an immigrant trope.

    Replies: @Wency, @Dmitry

    Borat is a very accurate parody of Caucasian and Central Asian people from the postsoviet space, as he says. ​His brown hairy appearance, is 100% stereotype of Caucasian nationalities, and his clothing is from the 1990s postsoviet elite.

    Elites of Central Asia and Caucasia, have sent their children to be educated in private schools in the UK, since the 1990s.

    UK is always full of the elites from these nationalities, studying in private schools and universities.

    Cohen was a bourgeois Jewish British comedian from Cambridge University, and born in 1971.

    It’s likely that Cohen, has met students, that came from those countries, and hence why his parody could be so accurate. Cohen was born in 1971.

    Elites of Central and Caucasia have started to send a flood of their children to elite schools and universities of 1990s UK.

    Nowadays it will be different. But Borat was perhaps not even that far from the reality of culture shock, that those nationalities would have when they had opened to the West.

    And he has copied a lot of things about them accurately.

    Borat have an Israeli accent? Speak Yiddish/

    Borat is Caucasian or Central Asian from the postsoviet space. You can see these stereotypes everything about him, his clothing, his hairstyle, and his relationship with women.

    Cohen has also made a very Israeli stereotype, but it wasn’t enjoyable, as the character is not sympathetic like Borat.

    It seems like he never managed to make else anything like Borat.

    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @Dmitry


    And he has copied a lot of things about them accurately.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1AQaFcn_r
     
    Letter was missing in the link. It's not in the Borat film, but from a series for YouTube.

    Borat visited Cambridge University and he cannot understand English parties at 2:00 But for real, whether young people actually enjoy this kind of "English ball", is a real question.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1AQaFcn_rI

    , @AltanBakshi
    @Dmitry


    It seems like he never managed to make else anything like Borat.
     
    Well Bruno had its moments...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FE7V_8CgmQ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwEd_tcKBfU

    Never been a fan of Borat... But Ali G was the best of his characters!

    Replies: @Dmitry

  115. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Immigration, deficits, global deployment of military resources, extreme virtue signaling…these all give them more powet for empire, but at the expense of domestic coherence.
     
    No, I think you're giving too much credit to it. A good model in a lot of online groups is to see how easily the LGBTBBQ gang often ends up taking over or having a prominent role in its governance: I've been in the open source and various hobby groups for a decade plus now, and its fascinating to see its recurring. As a friend of mine noted, the XX chromosome reddit for women has an weird dominance of moderators that are transexuals(so actually men!) and this actually has relevant for the world of information as a whole, because they also dominate Wikipedia, seen as a "source of truth."

    Its not really because they have a compelling interest in the group's thriving and indeed, often drive it into extinction. Its basically because they have the time(no family, etc), schelling point(sense of deviance), and are highly motivated as a kind of "intolerant minority"(in fact, many admit it themselves as they believe it is "survival"), so they primarily and overwhelmingly serve their own interest, and sometimes turn the entire organization into a vehicle for their interests.

    As their ultimate goals often do not coincide with those now under their rule, their goals often do not provide the same kind of success, and their basic calculus of what is important is quite different. That's how you get things like WASBAPPING insisting that Russia and China needs to be nuked until they have gay parades in their capitals, and that a world that allows their evil is not worth having.

    When coupled with notions like Putin's, "Why would we want a world without Russia?", you can see how it rapidly is existential for the decisionmakers(or is perceived as such), even if it isn't actually existential for the states they are in.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Svevlad, @Wency

    You’re giving a lot of credit to some aggressive Redditors; but perhaps you’re right, and this Great Awokening really is spinning into a farcical version of the Cultural Revolution.

    While open-minded, I can’t see that it has affected the actions of the US on the world stage yet. I also notice that it is an old, straight white man, with a history of politically incorrect slip ups, in office as President; while a harsh on crime Attorney General is Veep. It does not look anything like a revolutionary government.

    I am still very open to the idea that the US is in danger of turning into some weird revolutionary state, that goes beyond its plausible rational interests, and threatens areas of peace and stability, but, while I often find progressivism cloying, stupid, inimical to psychological health and conformist, I’ve seen a lot worse.

    [MORE]

    I also appreciate, that as an imperial power, the US has threatened areas of peace and stability in the recent past. I just don’t think that this is extraordinary or specific to the US. It is normal throughout all of history. The only thing that has changed is that the US’s reach is global, because of modern transport and communications technology.

    I would advise the US, that imperial power, like the one true ring(!), should be avoided, because it corrupts the bearer, but my warning would not be novel and the types of people who would listen my warning, only end up in government by accident.

    Rather self-assuredly, I feel that I would throw the ring into the fire, as easily as I would pick it up, but then I lack all ambition to do so. I imagine these two are related.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Ultimately, the trait being selected in the leadership is the ability to gain power over the host; it is not necessarily to maximize the host. We see this with parasites pretty common in the natural world. Ambition is a necessary component of power given the current situation, and as such, the very people who are selected for in prominence are the people who'll be most interested in the political equivalent of such a mythical ring.

  116. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Immigration, deficits, global deployment of military resources, extreme virtue signaling…these all give them more powet for empire, but at the expense of domestic coherence.
     
    No, I think you're giving too much credit to it. A good model in a lot of online groups is to see how easily the LGBTBBQ gang often ends up taking over or having a prominent role in its governance: I've been in the open source and various hobby groups for a decade plus now, and its fascinating to see its recurring. As a friend of mine noted, the XX chromosome reddit for women has an weird dominance of moderators that are transexuals(so actually men!) and this actually has relevant for the world of information as a whole, because they also dominate Wikipedia, seen as a "source of truth."

    Its not really because they have a compelling interest in the group's thriving and indeed, often drive it into extinction. Its basically because they have the time(no family, etc), schelling point(sense of deviance), and are highly motivated as a kind of "intolerant minority"(in fact, many admit it themselves as they believe it is "survival"), so they primarily and overwhelmingly serve their own interest, and sometimes turn the entire organization into a vehicle for their interests.

    As their ultimate goals often do not coincide with those now under their rule, their goals often do not provide the same kind of success, and their basic calculus of what is important is quite different. That's how you get things like WASBAPPING insisting that Russia and China needs to be nuked until they have gay parades in their capitals, and that a world that allows their evil is not worth having.

    When coupled with notions like Putin's, "Why would we want a world without Russia?", you can see how it rapidly is existential for the decisionmakers(or is perceived as such), even if it isn't actually existential for the states they are in.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Svevlad, @Wency

    So, the eunuchs return through the small door.

  117. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Svevlad

    If you don't want to, why are you choosing to? You have complete free choice in what you write.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Boomthorkell

    The internet works on a hot-take basis. The more deranged you look, the more attention you get. And when you get a follower base, you can actually start acting more reasonable.

    And I’m a Balkanoid, we’re notoriously capricious and get carried away in affect. Pick which one you want to be true, heeh

    • LOL: Triteleia Laxa
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Svevlad

    Lebron James thoughtfully sent a copy of his jersey to Zlatan Ibramovic as a gift when Zlatan visited Los Angeles.

    Zlatan signed the jersey and sent it back to Lebron.

    Replies: @Svevlad

  118. @Dmitry
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Borat is a very accurate parody of Caucasian and Central Asian people from the postsoviet space, as he says. ​His brown hairy appearance, is 100% stereotype of Caucasian nationalities, and his clothing is from the 1990s postsoviet elite.

    Elites of Central Asia and Caucasia, have sent their children to be educated in private schools in the UK, since the 1990s.

    UK is always full of the elites from these nationalities, studying in private schools and universities.

    Cohen was a bourgeois Jewish British comedian from Cambridge University, and born in 1971.

    It's likely that Cohen, has met students, that came from those countries, and hence why his parody could be so accurate. Cohen was born in 1971.

    Elites of Central and Caucasia have started to send a flood of their children to elite schools and universities of 1990s UK.


    -

    Nowadays it will be different. But Borat was perhaps not even that far from the reality of culture shock, that those nationalities would have when they had opened to the West.

    And he has copied a lot of things about them accurately.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1AQaFcn_r


    Borat have an Israeli accent? Speak Yiddish/
     
    Borat is Caucasian or Central Asian from the postsoviet space. You can see these stereotypes everything about him, his clothing, his hairstyle, and his relationship with women.

    Cohen has also made a very Israeli stereotype, but it wasn't enjoyable, as the character is not sympathetic like Borat.

    It seems like he never managed to make else anything like Borat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kaJaDx51iw

    Replies: @Dmitry, @AltanBakshi

    And he has copied a lot of things about them accurately.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1AQaFcn_r

    Letter was missing in the link. It’s not in the Borat film, but from a series for YouTube.

    Borat visited Cambridge University and he cannot understand English parties at 2:00 But for real, whether young people actually enjoy this kind of “English ball”, is a real question.

  119. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Daniel Chieh

    You're giving a lot of credit to some aggressive Redditors; but perhaps you're right, and this Great Awokening really is spinning into a farcical version of the Cultural Revolution.

    While open-minded, I can't see that it has affected the actions of the US on the world stage yet. I also notice that it is an old, straight white man, with a history of politically incorrect slip ups, in office as President; while a harsh on crime Attorney General is Veep. It does not look anything like a revolutionary government.

    I am still very open to the idea that the US is in danger of turning into some weird revolutionary state, that goes beyond its plausible rational interests, and threatens areas of peace and stability, but, while I often find progressivism cloying, stupid, inimical to psychological health and conformist, I've seen a lot worse.



    I also appreciate, that as an imperial power, the US has threatened areas of peace and stability in the recent past. I just don't think that this is extraordinary or specific to the US. It is normal throughout all of history. The only thing that has changed is that the US's reach is global, because of modern transport and communications technology.

    I would advise the US, that imperial power, like the one true ring(!), should be avoided, because it corrupts the bearer, but my warning would not be novel and the types of people who would listen my warning, only end up in government by accident.

    Rather self-assuredly, I feel that I would throw the ring into the fire, as easily as I would pick it up, but then I lack all ambition to do so. I imagine these two are related.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    Ultimately, the trait being selected in the leadership is the ability to gain power over the host; it is not necessarily to maximize the host. We see this with parasites pretty common in the natural world. Ambition is a necessary component of power given the current situation, and as such, the very people who are selected for in prominence are the people who’ll be most interested in the political equivalent of such a mythical ring.

  120. @Svevlad
    @Znzn

    If they really wanted to keep LiaoDong, then they should have conquered (outer) Mongolia (the Gobi is a decent natural border) and all of Manchuria. Maybe swing down into Korea too and swamp it with settlers while deporting the natives into let's say Turkistan or Taymyr or some other useless territory. That would be pretty neat, but too bad.

    Replies: @Znzn, @Yellowface Anon, @Boomthorkell

    Does the Battle of Mukden ring any bells?

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Znzn

    That was in 1905, when it was too late.

    This has to be done earlier, but it is what it is.

    Wouldn't mind if the Japanese get shat on a bit in the future though.

  121. @Dmitry
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Borat is a very accurate parody of Caucasian and Central Asian people from the postsoviet space, as he says. ​His brown hairy appearance, is 100% stereotype of Caucasian nationalities, and his clothing is from the 1990s postsoviet elite.

    Elites of Central Asia and Caucasia, have sent their children to be educated in private schools in the UK, since the 1990s.

    UK is always full of the elites from these nationalities, studying in private schools and universities.

    Cohen was a bourgeois Jewish British comedian from Cambridge University, and born in 1971.

    It's likely that Cohen, has met students, that came from those countries, and hence why his parody could be so accurate. Cohen was born in 1971.

    Elites of Central and Caucasia have started to send a flood of their children to elite schools and universities of 1990s UK.


    -

    Nowadays it will be different. But Borat was perhaps not even that far from the reality of culture shock, that those nationalities would have when they had opened to the West.

    And he has copied a lot of things about them accurately.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1AQaFcn_r


    Borat have an Israeli accent? Speak Yiddish/
     
    Borat is Caucasian or Central Asian from the postsoviet space. You can see these stereotypes everything about him, his clothing, his hairstyle, and his relationship with women.

    Cohen has also made a very Israeli stereotype, but it wasn't enjoyable, as the character is not sympathetic like Borat.

    It seems like he never managed to make else anything like Borat.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kaJaDx51iw

    Replies: @Dmitry, @AltanBakshi

    It seems like he never managed to make else anything like Borat.

    Well Bruno had its moments…

    [MORE]

    Never been a fan of Borat… But Ali G was the best of his characters!

    • LOL: Triteleia Laxa
    • Replies: @Dmitry
    @AltanBakshi

    Borat seems like his only art of talent. I don't see much in the other videos.

    Even in the Russian Wikipedia - Borat's life is a master work of biography. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%91%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82_%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%B2

    His family name sounds Turkic, and it still feels ambiguous if the Borats are Central Asians as claimed, or can be Azeris.

  122. @Znzn
    @Svevlad

    Does the Battle of Mukden ring any bells?

    Replies: @Svevlad

    That was in 1905, when it was too late.

    This has to be done earlier, but it is what it is.

    Wouldn’t mind if the Japanese get shat on a bit in the future though.

  123. I walked out of a tech conference, of mostly white men, a few years ago, because the host kept denigrating their industry as “pale, male and stale.”

    I don’t think anybody noticed; as they were too busy applauding the talk, and I think I used that language ironically, in their voice, in my comment!

    [MORE]

    Somebody once put it to me that I see people’s shadow, even when they do not. Confused occasions, like that conference, can make me feel extremely uncomfortable. Like I’m trapped between two worlds. The bigger the dissonance between the light in the way they perceive themselves, and the darkness girding them underneath, the more I want to make those two coalesce. The people would be fine, if only they had the courage.

    • Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    But they don't. They are cowards. They needed to get scraped falling off their bikes and get in fights and such as boys but the news media used a series of scare tactics to weaken them from the cradle. Convincing mothers there were pedos and kidnappers around every corner so you shouldn't let your kids ever go outside and develop their independence.. Now we see the end result. A bunch of cowards so terrified of confrontation to the point where they constantly degrade themselves just to mitigate the threat of being called names. When worse shit happens they will cower just the same.

    It's pathetic. And there's far too few of us who aren't pathetic left around to change it. When I have kids I'm having at least 3 and they are going to be able to roam around freely, within reason. Of course I won't be having them in the USA.

    The USA is done, terminal. Already bought my plane ticket.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Svevlad

  124. @Triteleia Laxa
    @AltanBakshi


    Actually Americans have something very enticing to offer, Ukraine and the end of sanctions. Russia’s goal is not China as pre eminent power, but getting back it’s political sphere, which is former USSR, such offer would be quite tempting… But I don’t believe that Americans are pragmatic enough to do such decisions.
     
    Perhaps America thinks that the cost, of losing Eastern Europe from its own political sphere, is too high a price pay for Russian neutrality? Especially since Russia looks vulnerable to flipping anyway, whenever Putin leaves power.

    I noticed one thing recently that almost no one anywhere will ever admit, without acsribing it to luck/evil/or saying it is over.

    US foreign policy has been enormously successful over the last 100 years.

    Everyone says they keep making mistakes and losing, but, in the challenge of global power, the biggest challenge there is, their position always seems to end up improving. Perhaps plenty of them are smart and realistic about their interests?

    China is the most recent exception to this, but 1.4 billion highly intelligent, highly productive people were not going to remain starving peasants forever.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @AltanBakshi, @AltanBakshi, @Daniel Chieh, @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Not really, Just lucky enough to benefit from WWII eliminating all European competitors, taking over Japan and having a huge landmass, industrial base and population.

    Now though, half it’s pop has been replaced and is ready to kill or enslave the other half and it’s economy has been gutted, financialized, offshored and propped up by money printing.

    The US WAS strong. Now it’s weakening at an increasingly accelerated rate. Where has it’s position improved in recent years save Ukraine who’s people are currently such dumb malleable sheep that they elected an actor who played a politician on a TV show as their president? Who, btw is now at like a 32% approval rating after 18 months. Everywhere else is rejecting western gay sex tranny’s can get abortions too culture and lets replace our children with foreigners USA style liberalism.

    The Anglosphere has nowhere to go but down. It even demonizes anglos, wtf kind of culture demonizes it’s own people? Not a winning one.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    There's a lot of prognostication in your post, but America would still be the undisputed global hegemon, if 1.4 billion highly intelligent Chinese did not, as was inevitable, get their act together.

    Maybe these most recent developments in the US are categorically different than all of the much criticised ones before, or maybe not. I am unsure.

    Take mass immigration. I think it is clear that it has been a net negative for the average US citizen; but I also think that it has been positive for US institutional power.

    The people, who the US government finds difficult to deal with, were brought over as slaves. The rest of the imports have been pretty easy going. A 200 million person US, would have a lovely living standard for its mostly white residents, but its global power would already be eclipsed by China.

    I would always choose the interests of the populace over that of the state; but it isn't surprising when people in charge of the state, choose the state, not the populace.

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle

  125. china-russia-all-the-way says:
    @AP
    Ultimately if it becomes China-Russia-Iran-NK-Iran vs. everyone else, the former lose. CRINK would have to bring some other powers - such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world - on board to really become competitive. I'm not predicting whether or not it can be done, but if it isn't done, the West determines the world's fate. The best CRINK can hope for is voluntary self-destruction.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Barbarossa, @Felix Keverich, @AltanBakshi, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Blinky Bill, @Dreadilk, @Rattus Norwegius

    To keep the analysis from becoming unwieldy I’ll focus on Eurasia.

    The China-Russia Entente is in a very good position to hold sway over Eurasia. The Entente jointly holds overwhelming influence over Central Asia. Pakistan, North Korea, and Burma are allies of China. Most of Southeast Asia tilts toward China. With the help of Russia, even Vietnam might be neutral. South Korea has become conspicuously silent in international discussions over controversies related to China.

    The most consequential relationship for the Entente could be with Iran. China signed a framework with Iran for investment in oil and gas and military ties. Russia provided a $5 billion loan to Iran in 2019. The potential for substantial support for Iran is a major worry in Israeli strategic thinking. Netanyahu’s Mossad chief recently retired. In his outgoing speech, he made remarks highly critical of American confrontation against China.

    Recently retired Mossad chief Yossi Cohen expressed skepticism over Washington’s increasingly tough approach to China on Monday, declaring that he did not understand what the United States was hoping to accomplish by challenging Beijing.

    During a lecture at Bar-Ilan University, where he was awarded an honorary degree, the former Israeli spymaster questioned why the United States is pushing for an investigation into China’s possible role in the spread of the coronavirus.

    As first reported on Israeli news website Walla, he declared: “I do not understand what the Americans want from China. If anyone understands, they should explain it to me. China isn’t against us and is not our enemy.”

    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/ex-mossad-chief-says-he-doesn-t-understand-u-s-antagonism-toward-china-1.9885569

    I would speculate Cohen is very concerned about China’s relationship with Iran in strengthening Iran’s capabilities and economic resilience and the opportunity a Eurasian war would present to Iran. If Iran believes it is likely to eventually be attacked by the US, then Iran calculates that it should first attack US military bases in the Middle East if there is an opportunity. If there is a war over Taiwan or Ukraine or both, Iran would seize the opportunity to go to war. The alternative is to suffer under economic sanctions for several years, grow weaker, and wait to get attacked. The level of Chinese support for Iran will also become tied to the level of support by the US for Taiwan. It would be a nightmare scenario for Israel if Taiwan gets advanced weapons and then China gives long-range missile technology to Iran.

    There is an emerging alliance system in Eurasia led by China and Russia. Iran is standing in the wings waiting to launch the war according to its schedule. These are very formidable dynamics on the side of China and Russia.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill, Aedib
    • Thanks: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @AP
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    The key for the West would be to contain Eurasia (basically - Russia, China, Central Asia, NK, Iran) and to prevent further alliances such as with India, Turkey, Vietnam/Philippines/Indonesia, etc. If this is done, places further afield such as Africa and Latin America would be choked off.

    Eurasia can survive autonomously but I suspect it would fall behind, as during the Cold War, even without the poverty-inducing effects of communism.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @showmethereal

    , @Showmethereal
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    Great points. Mossad knows China is no enemy of anyone. China wants to do what it did for centuries - trade with the outside world and be left alone to be China. The Saudis made the smae calculus as Israel. In signing that framework the Chinese FM said Iran was "not like some other cou ntries who change their mind after a phone call". My presumption was maybe he was talking about Israel because under US pressure they recently began slowing the scope of the projects they allowed Chinese companies to be invested in. But I cant say for certain.

    The calculus with Israel and Russia i think is different because of Russia and Turkish relations. That is a complex labyrinth

  126. @Wency
    @Triteleia Laxa


    There’s obviously much more reason for Jews to dislike Germany.
     
    There's a logic to what you're saying, but I don't think it works that way. Jews view Germany as a modern, advanced, cultured state. They have little to no lingering resentment towards Germany or Germans. They only resent the Nazis, i.e. Germany's version of far-right Republicans who managed to hijack the country through quasi-Republican minoritarian processes in a moment of weakness and temporary insanity.

    But in their view the sins of Czarist anti-Semitism are to some degree imputed to the Russian people, and more broadly the Slav. The Slavs are seen as a perpetually backward, boorish people -- basically Europe's version of Mississippians, whose failures are entirely their own fault. Take a look at Borat (yes, in the real-world Kazakhs aren't Slavs -- but Borat is a Slav). Cohen doesn't really suggest that Borat's ways and his anti-Semitism are the fault of a particular ideology or the Kazakh government -- they're just inherent to his people and their culture. It's only cause for comedy because they're so poor and weak.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @Triteleia Laxa, @Dmitry

    Israeli Jews’ view of Russians/Ukrainians/Belarusians seems to have become mainly based on mass immigration to Israel of the recent decades. This is like how English view Poles (as toilet cleaners and bus drivers), or Americans view Mexicans (as maids and builders).

    This is an image forced hard by massive immigration (relative to total populations) of the recent decades.

    So the Israeli view of Russians, is the opposite of how English view Russians. Russian immigrants in the UK are a small, selected cognitive elite which creates a positive impression, but in Israel they have a flood of lower class people.

    Hebrew pop songs on the radio, regularly are about having Russian/Ukrainian girlfriends. The Israeli view of Russians/Ukrainians as nationality that floods them with lower class mass immigration.

    Israeli views of Russian girlfriends. Aggressive ambitious boasting women, and passover meal is bacon and cheese. These ones have subtitles:

    Views are usually like slightly more knowledgeable version of Western countries (which were not flooded with mass migration).

    You can see the Israeli pictures even without the Hebrew. I.e. Russians worship cats and alcohol

    https://www.facebook.com/kanipbc/videos/432731743966844
    Of course, this is not like the relation with Germany, which defined not by mass immigration, but by Nazism, Hitler and holocaust.

    If a Jewish middle class Israeli, has a German girlfriend of boyfriend – this is a topic in Israel for news reports and documentaries, interviewing their distressed grandparents.

    Jews and Germans marrying, will be for Israeli television a morality story about healing relations between enemies, in the same way as marriage between Jews and Muslim Palestinians.

    It’s the craziness of this forum to claim they are comparable.

    As for the powerful or economically “elite” Jews – this is one of the similarities of America and the Russian Federation. America and Russia are blessed or cursed, with the most world’s economically powerful “elite Jews”. At least in America, the elite in general have a bit more legitimacy, as the wealth is less based on just owning former public property.

  127. @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Not really, Just lucky enough to benefit from WWII eliminating all European competitors, taking over Japan and having a huge landmass, industrial base and population.

    Now though, half it's pop has been replaced and is ready to kill or enslave the other half and it's economy has been gutted, financialized, offshored and propped up by money printing.

    The US WAS strong. Now it's weakening at an increasingly accelerated rate. Where has it's position improved in recent years save Ukraine who's people are currently such dumb malleable sheep that they elected an actor who played a politician on a TV show as their president? Who, btw is now at like a 32% approval rating after 18 months. Everywhere else is rejecting western gay sex tranny's can get abortions too culture and lets replace our children with foreigners USA style liberalism.

    The Anglosphere has nowhere to go but down. It even demonizes anglos, wtf kind of culture demonizes it's own people? Not a winning one.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    There’s a lot of prognostication in your post, but America would still be the undisputed global hegemon, if 1.4 billion highly intelligent Chinese did not, as was inevitable, get their act together.

    Maybe these most recent developments in the US are categorically different than all of the much criticised ones before, or maybe not. I am unsure.

    Take mass immigration. I think it is clear that it has been a net negative for the average US citizen; but I also think that it has been positive for US institutional power.

    The people, who the US government finds difficult to deal with, were brought over as slaves. The rest of the imports have been pretty easy going. A 200 million person US, would have a lovely living standard for its mostly white residents, but its global power would already be eclipsed by China.

    I would always choose the interests of the populace over that of the state; but it isn’t surprising when people in charge of the state, choose the state, not the populace.

    • Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Not all countries do this. Poland, Hungary and probably some others actually pay parents to have kids instead of importing people. Pretty much all of Eastern Europe has almost 0 replacement. The immigrants they have taken are almost all Ukrainians, who are of pretty much the same ethnic stock.

    Most of their economies are growing much faster than ours is. Look it up. It's just extrapolation based on current trends. Prognostication makes it sound mystical, it's not, it's facts, stats and my observations of broken culture of degeneracy and death that lead me to this conclusion. Countries on the rise do not have decreasing life expectancies because of the massive numbers of suicides their people commit.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  128. @Triteleia Laxa
    I walked out of a tech conference, of mostly white men, a few years ago, because the host kept denigrating their industry as "pale, male and stale."

    I don't think anybody noticed; as they were too busy applauding the talk, and I think I used that language ironically, in their voice, in my comment!



    Somebody once put it to me that I see people's shadow, even when they do not. Confused occasions, like that conference, can make me feel extremely uncomfortable. Like I'm trapped between two worlds. The bigger the dissonance between the light in the way they perceive themselves, and the darkness girding them underneath, the more I want to make those two coalesce. The people would be fine, if only they had the courage.

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    But they don’t. They are cowards. They needed to get scraped falling off their bikes and get in fights and such as boys but the news media used a series of scare tactics to weaken them from the cradle. Convincing mothers there were pedos and kidnappers around every corner so you shouldn’t let your kids ever go outside and develop their independence.. Now we see the end result. A bunch of cowards so terrified of confrontation to the point where they constantly degrade themselves just to mitigate the threat of being called names. When worse shit happens they will cower just the same.

    It’s pathetic. And there’s far too few of us who aren’t pathetic left around to change it. When I have kids I’m having at least 3 and they are going to be able to roam around freely, within reason. Of course I won’t be having them in the USA.

    The USA is done, terminal. Already bought my plane ticket.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    It isn't that they're cowards. It is that they mostly agree.

    They don't find themselves interesting. This is why they can't hold a conversation with you, except to awkwardly list some facts which they have read, or borrow someone else's words and authority.

    Sometimes the regurgitation of other people's opinions is delivered in a self-important tone. This is when I start making fun of them, hoping to elicit some authenticity. You'll find this pattern repeated in major cities all over the world. Go hang out with a theatre crew, or something similar. Politics isn't everything!

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    , @Svevlad
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Don't worry, the "strengthening" comes for them sooner or later.

    Suffer a little early on, or suffer unspeakable, indescribable, incomprehensible agony for a long long LONG time later. Their parents dug their graves, but they jumped in them giddily, now they shall be buried alive, and be cursed to never die, the entirety of the American continent reduced to it's regular state of being a geopolitical appendix, except this time it's purpose will be to be made fun of and tormented.

    Too distant to be properly invaded, when the final collapse due to their own weakness and insanity happens, it will be like a black hole, sucking up everyone around them.

    By 2200 I fully expect the Americas to be blank on all maps.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Bashibuzuk

  129. @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    But they don't. They are cowards. They needed to get scraped falling off their bikes and get in fights and such as boys but the news media used a series of scare tactics to weaken them from the cradle. Convincing mothers there were pedos and kidnappers around every corner so you shouldn't let your kids ever go outside and develop their independence.. Now we see the end result. A bunch of cowards so terrified of confrontation to the point where they constantly degrade themselves just to mitigate the threat of being called names. When worse shit happens they will cower just the same.

    It's pathetic. And there's far too few of us who aren't pathetic left around to change it. When I have kids I'm having at least 3 and they are going to be able to roam around freely, within reason. Of course I won't be having them in the USA.

    The USA is done, terminal. Already bought my plane ticket.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Svevlad

    It isn’t that they’re cowards. It is that they mostly agree.

    They don’t find themselves interesting. This is why they can’t hold a conversation with you, except to awkwardly list some facts which they have read, or borrow someone else’s words and authority.

    Sometimes the regurgitation of other people’s opinions is delivered in a self-important tone. This is when I start making fun of them, hoping to elicit some authenticity. You’ll find this pattern repeated in major cities all over the world. Go hang out with a theatre crew, or something similar. Politics isn’t everything!

    • Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I've done that, took a drama course in hs. It was pretty awesome, the teacher was cool and she told us some stuff about how actresses are basically have to prostitute themselves to producers (jews, but she didn't mention that I looked it up later and yeah 95%+ jews) if they want to make it, so it's probably best just to do this for fun (this was before weinstein/metoo) and so I know now she was 100% correct lol. I liked her. Acting is pretty fun too, and yeah convos are more lively. Best thing was the gender ratio though, closest I've ever come to having a harem (which is every boy's dream, don't judge me I was 16). I think I might join some amateur theatre group after I flee the USA actually, might be fun.

    And they are cowards or just dumb if they can only restate other people's opinions. Restating "safe" and "approved" opinions from talking heads in the media is exactly what cowards do.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  130. @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    But they don't. They are cowards. They needed to get scraped falling off their bikes and get in fights and such as boys but the news media used a series of scare tactics to weaken them from the cradle. Convincing mothers there were pedos and kidnappers around every corner so you shouldn't let your kids ever go outside and develop their independence.. Now we see the end result. A bunch of cowards so terrified of confrontation to the point where they constantly degrade themselves just to mitigate the threat of being called names. When worse shit happens they will cower just the same.

    It's pathetic. And there's far too few of us who aren't pathetic left around to change it. When I have kids I'm having at least 3 and they are going to be able to roam around freely, within reason. Of course I won't be having them in the USA.

    The USA is done, terminal. Already bought my plane ticket.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Svevlad

    Don’t worry, the “strengthening” comes for them sooner or later.

    Suffer a little early on, or suffer unspeakable, indescribable, incomprehensible agony for a long long LONG time later. Their parents dug their graves, but they jumped in them giddily, now they shall be buried alive, and be cursed to never die, the entirety of the American continent reduced to it’s regular state of being a geopolitical appendix, except this time it’s purpose will be to be made fun of and tormented.

    Too distant to be properly invaded, when the final collapse due to their own weakness and insanity happens, it will be like a black hole, sucking up everyone around them.

    By 2200 I fully expect the Americas to be blank on all maps.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Svevlad


    ...cowards so terrified of confrontation to the point where they constantly degrade themselves just to mitigate the threat of being called names.
     
    That's what happens when you put a bunch of useless school assistant principals in charge of society - mostly older women, few gays, and some beta males. Their single overriding ambition is to ban all conflict. Everything has to be harmonious. After 1-2 generations you get a few rebels and a mass of dysfunctional normies.

    There is a reason why there has not been any successful society in the past run by spinster women, gays, and the childless. It would be an oxymoron - they are marginal to a healthy society, an afterthought that can be tolerated but not put in the center.

    People blame all kinds of things for this development: Hollywood, Christianity decline, influx of migrants, cultural Marxism, etc... but I think those are only symptoms that inevitably followed the self-destruction of a confident, family oriented, economically balanced Western civilization. What happened was an elite betrayal - Western elites at some point got tired of their own people as too backward and boring, too many of them crowding airports and beaches, ruing the views, asking for better lives, etc...all else followed. The elites control the levers of power, so they changed things over time.

    We have entered the final act: get rid of as many as possible. It may be a fantasy and a semi-mythical phobia but it has already entered our conscioussness with corona - and as such it will be real. That will be the story of the next few years.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    , @Bashibuzuk
    @Svevlad


    By 2200 I fully expect the Americas to be blank on all maps
     
    .

    I don't know if you read Russian, but this is also what Galkovsky has recently written in one of his sardonic pseudo- Sci Fi short stories.

    https://russlovo.today/rubricator/Literaturnaya-stranica/neopalimaya-kupina

    It is pure and sublimated sarcasm (I actually felt a bit guilty because I was laughing while I was reading it).

    😆
  131. @AltanBakshi
    @Dmitry


    It seems like he never managed to make else anything like Borat.
     
    Well Bruno had its moments...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_FE7V_8CgmQ

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwEd_tcKBfU

    Never been a fan of Borat... But Ali G was the best of his characters!

    Replies: @Dmitry

    Borat seems like his only art of talent. I don’t see much in the other videos.

    Even in the Russian Wikipedia – Borat’s life is a master work of biography. https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%91%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82_%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%B2

    His family name sounds Turkic, and it still feels ambiguous if the Borats are Central Asians as claimed, or can be Azeris.

  132. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    There's a lot of prognostication in your post, but America would still be the undisputed global hegemon, if 1.4 billion highly intelligent Chinese did not, as was inevitable, get their act together.

    Maybe these most recent developments in the US are categorically different than all of the much criticised ones before, or maybe not. I am unsure.

    Take mass immigration. I think it is clear that it has been a net negative for the average US citizen; but I also think that it has been positive for US institutional power.

    The people, who the US government finds difficult to deal with, were brought over as slaves. The rest of the imports have been pretty easy going. A 200 million person US, would have a lovely living standard for its mostly white residents, but its global power would already be eclipsed by China.

    I would always choose the interests of the populace over that of the state; but it isn't surprising when people in charge of the state, choose the state, not the populace.

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Not all countries do this. Poland, Hungary and probably some others actually pay parents to have kids instead of importing people. Pretty much all of Eastern Europe has almost 0 replacement. The immigrants they have taken are almost all Ukrainians, who are of pretty much the same ethnic stock.

    Most of their economies are growing much faster than ours is. Look it up. It’s just extrapolation based on current trends. Prognostication makes it sound mystical, it’s not, it’s facts, stats and my observations of broken culture of degeneracy and death that lead me to this conclusion. Countries on the rise do not have decreasing life expectancies because of the massive numbers of suicides their people commit.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Those countries have rapidly decreasing populations. If the payments are working, they are not working nearly well enough.

    Their faster economic growth is solely down to them starting from a much lower base.

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle

  133. @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Not all countries do this. Poland, Hungary and probably some others actually pay parents to have kids instead of importing people. Pretty much all of Eastern Europe has almost 0 replacement. The immigrants they have taken are almost all Ukrainians, who are of pretty much the same ethnic stock.

    Most of their economies are growing much faster than ours is. Look it up. It's just extrapolation based on current trends. Prognostication makes it sound mystical, it's not, it's facts, stats and my observations of broken culture of degeneracy and death that lead me to this conclusion. Countries on the rise do not have decreasing life expectancies because of the massive numbers of suicides their people commit.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Those countries have rapidly decreasing populations. If the payments are working, they are not working nearly well enough.

    Their faster economic growth is solely down to them starting from a much lower base.

    • Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Population is not the be all end all. Africa has 1.2 billion, would you want to live there? Nigeria alone has 220 mil or some such, are they strong? Compared to Russia who only has 140 mil or Germany with 80 mil? Where I live now in socal, a gallon of milk costs $5, and avg. rent is about 2k a month. In "poor" Idaho where I lived for a time, the salary is 2/3 of the socal salary milk costs 2.50 and you can get a nice apt for 1k. PPP is a much better indicator of livability than GDP is. GDP is only extant because of financial inertia and reserve currency status. Socal is a far worse place to live than Boise. I've lived in both and tens of thousands of Californians are fleeing to this "poor" city. Sadly, ruining it as well. Which is a shame because it is or perhaps was, quite nice.

    There are more factors at play in how nice a place is to live in or how powerful a country is than mere numbers. You have to take a holistic view in your assessments. The US dept. of justice threatens US credit rating agencies when they downgrade the gov'ts rating for one example of how some stats are flawed/manipulated.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  134. @Svevlad
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Don't worry, the "strengthening" comes for them sooner or later.

    Suffer a little early on, or suffer unspeakable, indescribable, incomprehensible agony for a long long LONG time later. Their parents dug their graves, but they jumped in them giddily, now they shall be buried alive, and be cursed to never die, the entirety of the American continent reduced to it's regular state of being a geopolitical appendix, except this time it's purpose will be to be made fun of and tormented.

    Too distant to be properly invaded, when the final collapse due to their own weakness and insanity happens, it will be like a black hole, sucking up everyone around them.

    By 2200 I fully expect the Americas to be blank on all maps.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Bashibuzuk

    …cowards so terrified of confrontation to the point where they constantly degrade themselves just to mitigate the threat of being called names.

    That’s what happens when you put a bunch of useless school assistant principals in charge of society – mostly older women, few gays, and some beta males. Their single overriding ambition is to ban all conflict. Everything has to be harmonious. After 1-2 generations you get a few rebels and a mass of dysfunctional normies.

    There is a reason why there has not been any successful society in the past run by spinster women, gays, and the childless. It would be an oxymoron – they are marginal to a healthy society, an afterthought that can be tolerated but not put in the center.

    People blame all kinds of things for this development: Hollywood, Christianity decline, influx of migrants, cultural Marxism, etc… but I think those are only symptoms that inevitably followed the self-destruction of a confident, family oriented, economically balanced Western civilization. What happened was an elite betrayal – Western elites at some point got tired of their own people as too backward and boring, too many of them crowding airports and beaches, ruing the views, asking for better lives, etc…all else followed. The elites control the levers of power, so they changed things over time.

    We have entered the final act: get rid of as many as possible. It may be a fantasy and a semi-mythical phobia but it has already entered our conscioussness with corona – and as such it will be real. That will be the story of the next few years.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Beckow

    I wonder if, due to advancements of technology, we could finally achieve a so-called negative tolerance society. As in, the "marignals" not just not being tolerated but actively destroyed.

    This was untenable in earlier periods perhaps only because people had seemingly more important things to attend to, and didn't realize the "peripheralist" genes would that way seep in and corrupt society anyway. I'm not really sure why we tolerated those, ever. Perhaps some were useful in some way, albeit their mere existence poses an existential threat to humanity itself due to their tendency to slowly take over societies.

    What happens when the elite itself becomes composed of these peripherals? Well, societal suicide, along with their own. Half of 'em don't have children, those that do, the children are imbeciles. Classic succession problem.

  135. Bashibuzuk says:
    @Svevlad
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Don't worry, the "strengthening" comes for them sooner or later.

    Suffer a little early on, or suffer unspeakable, indescribable, incomprehensible agony for a long long LONG time later. Their parents dug their graves, but they jumped in them giddily, now they shall be buried alive, and be cursed to never die, the entirety of the American continent reduced to it's regular state of being a geopolitical appendix, except this time it's purpose will be to be made fun of and tormented.

    Too distant to be properly invaded, when the final collapse due to their own weakness and insanity happens, it will be like a black hole, sucking up everyone around them.

    By 2200 I fully expect the Americas to be blank on all maps.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Bashibuzuk

    By 2200 I fully expect the Americas to be blank on all maps

    .

    I don’t know if you read Russian, but this is also what Galkovsky has recently written in one of his sardonic pseudo- Sci Fi short stories.

    https://russlovo.today/rubricator/Literaturnaya-stranica/neopalimaya-kupina

    It is pure and sublimated sarcasm (I actually felt a bit guilty because I was laughing while I was reading it).

    😆

  136. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    It isn't that they're cowards. It is that they mostly agree.

    They don't find themselves interesting. This is why they can't hold a conversation with you, except to awkwardly list some facts which they have read, or borrow someone else's words and authority.

    Sometimes the regurgitation of other people's opinions is delivered in a self-important tone. This is when I start making fun of them, hoping to elicit some authenticity. You'll find this pattern repeated in major cities all over the world. Go hang out with a theatre crew, or something similar. Politics isn't everything!

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    I’ve done that, took a drama course in hs. It was pretty awesome, the teacher was cool and she told us some stuff about how actresses are basically have to prostitute themselves to producers (jews, but she didn’t mention that I looked it up later and yeah 95%+ jews) if they want to make it, so it’s probably best just to do this for fun (this was before weinstein/metoo) and so I know now she was 100% correct lol. I liked her. Acting is pretty fun too, and yeah convos are more lively. Best thing was the gender ratio though, closest I’ve ever come to having a harem (which is every boy’s dream, don’t judge me I was 16). I think I might join some amateur theatre group after I flee the USA actually, might be fun.

    And they are cowards or just dumb if they can only restate other people’s opinions. Restating “safe” and “approved” opinions from talking heads in the media is exactly what cowards do.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Makes sense and good on you. Best of luck! I don't think you need to give up on America, but follow your own path.

    Also, keep in mind that you need shelter and food to eat. A degree of economic security is not overrated. Budapest is nice. Berlin and Barcelona are great, but perhaps less what you are looking for. North-West Romania is a hidden gem.

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle

  137. @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa


    Immigration, deficits, global deployment of military resources, extreme virtue signaling…these all give them more powet for empire, but at the expense of domestic coherence.
     
    No, I think you're giving too much credit to it. A good model in a lot of online groups is to see how easily the LGBTBBQ gang often ends up taking over or having a prominent role in its governance: I've been in the open source and various hobby groups for a decade plus now, and its fascinating to see its recurring. As a friend of mine noted, the XX chromosome reddit for women has an weird dominance of moderators that are transexuals(so actually men!) and this actually has relevant for the world of information as a whole, because they also dominate Wikipedia, seen as a "source of truth."

    Its not really because they have a compelling interest in the group's thriving and indeed, often drive it into extinction. Its basically because they have the time(no family, etc), schelling point(sense of deviance), and are highly motivated as a kind of "intolerant minority"(in fact, many admit it themselves as they believe it is "survival"), so they primarily and overwhelmingly serve their own interest, and sometimes turn the entire organization into a vehicle for their interests.

    As their ultimate goals often do not coincide with those now under their rule, their goals often do not provide the same kind of success, and their basic calculus of what is important is quite different. That's how you get things like WASBAPPING insisting that Russia and China needs to be nuked until they have gay parades in their capitals, and that a world that allows their evil is not worth having.

    When coupled with notions like Putin's, "Why would we want a world without Russia?", you can see how it rapidly is existential for the decisionmakers(or is perceived as such), even if it isn't actually existential for the states they are in.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa, @Svevlad, @Wency

    Its basically because they have the time(no family, etc), schelling point(sense of deviance), and are highly motivated as a kind of “intolerant minority”(in fact, many admit it themselves as they believe it is “survival”)

    Surely another factor here is that a lot of transexuals are autists, with corresponding monomania.

    It’s basically impossible to “win” any sort of online contest with an autist (the winning move is not to play), and it’s impossible for most autists to win any sort of human contest that isn’t online (except maybe chess). Put these two facts together, and Reddit and Wikipedia should start to make a lot more sense.

  138. @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    I've done that, took a drama course in hs. It was pretty awesome, the teacher was cool and she told us some stuff about how actresses are basically have to prostitute themselves to producers (jews, but she didn't mention that I looked it up later and yeah 95%+ jews) if they want to make it, so it's probably best just to do this for fun (this was before weinstein/metoo) and so I know now she was 100% correct lol. I liked her. Acting is pretty fun too, and yeah convos are more lively. Best thing was the gender ratio though, closest I've ever come to having a harem (which is every boy's dream, don't judge me I was 16). I think I might join some amateur theatre group after I flee the USA actually, might be fun.

    And they are cowards or just dumb if they can only restate other people's opinions. Restating "safe" and "approved" opinions from talking heads in the media is exactly what cowards do.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Makes sense and good on you. Best of luck! I don’t think you need to give up on America, but follow your own path.

    Also, keep in mind that you need shelter and food to eat. A degree of economic security is not overrated. Budapest is nice. Berlin and Barcelona are great, but perhaps less what you are looking for. North-West Romania is a hidden gem.

    • Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Thanks! And I'm not doing this on a whim. I've spent a great deal of time planning, gathering information and building enough funds up to tide me over for quite some time. Never going to set foot in Barcelona. Romania is on my list. I'm 100% certain the USA/anglosphere is well past the point of any possible redemption, I wouldn't be leaving otherwise.

  139. @Beckow
    @Svevlad


    ...cowards so terrified of confrontation to the point where they constantly degrade themselves just to mitigate the threat of being called names.
     
    That's what happens when you put a bunch of useless school assistant principals in charge of society - mostly older women, few gays, and some beta males. Their single overriding ambition is to ban all conflict. Everything has to be harmonious. After 1-2 generations you get a few rebels and a mass of dysfunctional normies.

    There is a reason why there has not been any successful society in the past run by spinster women, gays, and the childless. It would be an oxymoron - they are marginal to a healthy society, an afterthought that can be tolerated but not put in the center.

    People blame all kinds of things for this development: Hollywood, Christianity decline, influx of migrants, cultural Marxism, etc... but I think those are only symptoms that inevitably followed the self-destruction of a confident, family oriented, economically balanced Western civilization. What happened was an elite betrayal - Western elites at some point got tired of their own people as too backward and boring, too many of them crowding airports and beaches, ruing the views, asking for better lives, etc...all else followed. The elites control the levers of power, so they changed things over time.

    We have entered the final act: get rid of as many as possible. It may be a fantasy and a semi-mythical phobia but it has already entered our conscioussness with corona - and as such it will be real. That will be the story of the next few years.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    I wonder if, due to advancements of technology, we could finally achieve a so-called negative tolerance society. As in, the “marignals” not just not being tolerated but actively destroyed.

    This was untenable in earlier periods perhaps only because people had seemingly more important things to attend to, and didn’t realize the “peripheralist” genes would that way seep in and corrupt society anyway. I’m not really sure why we tolerated those, ever. Perhaps some were useful in some way, albeit their mere existence poses an existential threat to humanity itself due to their tendency to slowly take over societies.

    What happens when the elite itself becomes composed of these peripherals? Well, societal suicide, along with their own. Half of ’em don’t have children, those that do, the children are imbeciles. Classic succession problem.

  140. AP says:
    @AltanBakshi
    @AP

    But its not them against everyone else, maybe in your deluded imagination things are so simple. World is not just Russo-Chinese alliance vs. Five Eyes+EU+The rest, but there are growing and emerging countries like Philippines, Burma, Indonesia, Vietnam and others which are not anymore as growing but still strategically extremely important like Pakistan, Turkey and Malaysia, none of those countries are truly in the Western camp, nor they are ready to fight for the West, India and Bangladesh included.

    You are fool if you think that Latin America or Arab world is the key to victory, they are more or less passive bystanders, if they have some value in the future it's just as pawns. Anyway are allies like Saudi Arabia and Egypt truly smart investments in the longer run?

    Replies: @AP

    But its not them against everyone else, maybe in your deluded imagination things are so simple.

    I wrote “if

    Nothing you wrote contradicts what I wrote.

    I wrote “CRINK would have to bring some other powers – such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world”

    Before writing about someone’s “deluded imagination” I suggest you read more carefully.

    If Anglo World + EU + Israel + Japan keep SE Asia and India away from China-Russia-Iran-NK, then the former group wins.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @AP

    Sorry for being careless, but why isnt neutrality of third parties enough for the "Crink's" victory? Anyway Burma and Pakistan are already squarely in the Chinese camp. Turkey and Philippines, who will be in the future as important economically as countries like Spain and Italy are now, are not anymore loyal allies of the West.

    I forgot to add one thing about India. India can never be a good ally for USA, for she is too independent and large, and the West is not used to having equal partners, only vassals. Also Indians are quite conscious about their colonial past.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Blinky Bill, @AP

  141. AP says:
    @china-russia-all-the-way
    @AP

    To keep the analysis from becoming unwieldy I'll focus on Eurasia.

    The China-Russia Entente is in a very good position to hold sway over Eurasia. The Entente jointly holds overwhelming influence over Central Asia. Pakistan, North Korea, and Burma are allies of China. Most of Southeast Asia tilts toward China. With the help of Russia, even Vietnam might be neutral. South Korea has become conspicuously silent in international discussions over controversies related to China.

    The most consequential relationship for the Entente could be with Iran. China signed a framework with Iran for investment in oil and gas and military ties. Russia provided a $5 billion loan to Iran in 2019. The potential for substantial support for Iran is a major worry in Israeli strategic thinking. Netanyahu's Mossad chief recently retired. In his outgoing speech, he made remarks highly critical of American confrontation against China.


    Recently retired Mossad chief Yossi Cohen expressed skepticism over Washington’s increasingly tough approach to China on Monday, declaring that he did not understand what the United States was hoping to accomplish by challenging Beijing.

    During a lecture at Bar-Ilan University, where he was awarded an honorary degree, the former Israeli spymaster questioned why the United States is pushing for an investigation into China’s possible role in the spread of the coronavirus.

    As first reported on Israeli news website Walla, he declared: "I do not understand what the Americans want from China. If anyone understands, they should explain it to me. China isn’t against us and is not our enemy."
     
    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/ex-mossad-chief-says-he-doesn-t-understand-u-s-antagonism-toward-china-1.9885569

    I would speculate Cohen is very concerned about China's relationship with Iran in strengthening Iran's capabilities and economic resilience and the opportunity a Eurasian war would present to Iran. If Iran believes it is likely to eventually be attacked by the US, then Iran calculates that it should first attack US military bases in the Middle East if there is an opportunity. If there is a war over Taiwan or Ukraine or both, Iran would seize the opportunity to go to war. The alternative is to suffer under economic sanctions for several years, grow weaker, and wait to get attacked. The level of Chinese support for Iran will also become tied to the level of support by the US for Taiwan. It would be a nightmare scenario for Israel if Taiwan gets advanced weapons and then China gives long-range missile technology to Iran.

    There is an emerging alliance system in Eurasia led by China and Russia. Iran is standing in the wings waiting to launch the war according to its schedule. These are very formidable dynamics on the side of China and Russia.

    Replies: @AP, @Showmethereal

    The key for the West would be to contain Eurasia (basically – Russia, China, Central Asia, NK, Iran) and to prevent further alliances such as with India, Turkey, Vietnam/Philippines/Indonesia, etc. If this is done, places further afield such as Africa and Latin America would be choked off.

    Eurasia can survive autonomously but I suspect it would fall behind, as during the Cold War, even without the poverty-inducing effects of communism.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Fall behind in what sense? Economic power? Technology? Military strength?

    Anyhow, I doubt it. Technological espionage is much easier today than it was half a century ago, innovations diffuse much more rapidly, and the rate of technological chance itself has fallen on most metrics so any lingering gaps (should they exist) will be less critical.

    In a world in which technological growth halts outright - and a Bifurcated world can be expected to have less of it, due to restrictions on human capital flows - there's a good possibility that China, with its East Asian tilt towards optimization over innovation, will win outright.

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle, @AP, @Blinky Bill, @Blinky Bill

    , @showmethereal
    @AP

    "The key for the West would be to contain Eurasia (basically – Russia, China, Central Asia, NK, Iran) and to prevent further alliances such as with India, Turkey, Vietnam/Philippines/Indonesia, etc. If this is done, places further afield such as Africa and Latin America would be choked off"

    Well see that's the problem... too many westerners betray your true motivations... your only goal is to dominate the rest of the globe. other groups of people don't necessarily have that same "Zero sum mentality". You reap what you sow...

  142. @AP
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    The key for the West would be to contain Eurasia (basically - Russia, China, Central Asia, NK, Iran) and to prevent further alliances such as with India, Turkey, Vietnam/Philippines/Indonesia, etc. If this is done, places further afield such as Africa and Latin America would be choked off.

    Eurasia can survive autonomously but I suspect it would fall behind, as during the Cold War, even without the poverty-inducing effects of communism.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @showmethereal

    Fall behind in what sense? Economic power? Technology? Military strength?

    Anyhow, I doubt it. Technological espionage is much easier today than it was half a century ago, innovations diffuse much more rapidly, and the rate of technological chance itself has fallen on most metrics so any lingering gaps (should they exist) will be less critical.

    In a world in which technological growth halts outright – and a Bifurcated world can be expected to have less of it, due to restrictions on human capital flows – there’s a good possibility that China, with its East Asian tilt towards optimization over innovation, will win outright.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I think this documentary explains the cause of this pretty well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP2tUW0HDHA

    , @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Fall behind in what sense? Economic power? Technology? Military strength?
     
    Any of these. Eurasia is already significantly poorer than Anglo world + EU + Japan; if India joins the latter as it becomes wealthier, Eurasia will also be significantly outnumbered. More people who are wealthier are more likely to come up with more technological advancement; theft will reduce the lag but it will still be there.

    Technological espionage is much easier today than it was half a century ago, innovations diffuse much more rapidly, and the rate of technological chance itself has fallen on most metrics so any lingering gaps (should they exist) will be less critical.
     
    The next technological leap we don't know about would likely occur in non-Eurasia; more people, wealth, and tradition of innovation.

    Of course, the West is playing with fire in terms of its peculiar recent obsessions; it may just implode.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Blinky Bill
    @Anatoly Karlin

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3__-zyVgAMrxpb.jpg


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3__-zFVkAc8wE6.jpg

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4AAZ9oVgAA7_En.jpg

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    , @Blinky Bill
    @Anatoly Karlin

    https://i.imgur.com/IjQZrH8.jpg

  143. @AP
    Ultimately if it becomes China-Russia-Iran-NK-Iran vs. everyone else, the former lose. CRINK would have to bring some other powers - such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world - on board to really become competitive. I'm not predicting whether or not it can be done, but if it isn't done, the West determines the world's fate. The best CRINK can hope for is voluntary self-destruction.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Barbarossa, @Felix Keverich, @AltanBakshi, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Blinky Bill, @Dreadilk, @Rattus Norwegius

    Trinidad and Tobago right behind you!

    [MORE]

    Someone else in the feed pointed out that a full box contains 195 vials. So they actually opened up a box and counted out 80, for a nation of 1.4 million people.

  144. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Makes sense and good on you. Best of luck! I don't think you need to give up on America, but follow your own path.

    Also, keep in mind that you need shelter and food to eat. A degree of economic security is not overrated. Budapest is nice. Berlin and Barcelona are great, but perhaps less what you are looking for. North-West Romania is a hidden gem.

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Thanks! And I’m not doing this on a whim. I’ve spent a great deal of time planning, gathering information and building enough funds up to tide me over for quite some time. Never going to set foot in Barcelona. Romania is on my list. I’m 100% certain the USA/anglosphere is well past the point of any possible redemption, I wouldn’t be leaving otherwise.

  145. @AP
    @AltanBakshi


    But its not them against everyone else, maybe in your deluded imagination things are so simple.
     
    I wrote "if"

    Nothing you wrote contradicts what I wrote.

    I wrote "CRINK would have to bring some other powers – such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world"

    Before writing about someone's "deluded imagination" I suggest you read more carefully.

    If Anglo World + EU + Israel + Japan keep SE Asia and India away from China-Russia-Iran-NK, then the former group wins.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

    Sorry for being careless, but why isnt neutrality of third parties enough for the “Crink’s” victory? Anyway Burma and Pakistan are already squarely in the Chinese camp. Turkey and Philippines, who will be in the future as important economically as countries like Spain and Italy are now, are not anymore loyal allies of the West.

    I forgot to add one thing about India. India can never be a good ally for USA, for she is too independent and large, and the West is not used to having equal partners, only vassals. Also Indians are quite conscious about their colonial past.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AltanBakshi

    I think India will be a legit independent pole, Indosphere. You can be your own self-contained, culturally autonomous civilization with 1.4B people. They have a smart fraction elite to set the tone.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    , @Blinky Bill
    @AltanBakshi


    Sorry for being careless, but why isnt neutrality of third parties enough for the “Crink’s” victory?
     
    This is an excellent point and needs to be amplified, Bifurcation is in the interest of the Western Bloc. Any nation that chooses neutrality is in essence going against Western interests, our way or the highway!

    China and Russia never ask third countries to cut off relations with the West, this is a huge advantage they have in international relations.

    , @AP
    @AltanBakshi


    Sorry for being careless, but why isnt neutrality of third parties enough for the “Crink’s” victory?
     
    It might not be an option, they might be forced to choose to go along.

    Anyway Burma and Pakistan are already squarely in the Chinese camp. Turkey and Philippines, who will be in the future as important economically as countries like Spain and Italy are now, are not anymore loyal allies of the West.
     
    Well, that's the key. Either the Philippines and the rest of SE Asia see China as a greater threat and join the Anglo-EU Japanese to contain it, or they accept the role of junior partner to China. People of these countries often resent their Chinese minorities and may be wary of getting swallowed by the massive Chinese behemoth. I won't predict which will happen.

    Pakistan is kind of useless. But it's alliance with China contributes to Indian ill-will towards China.

    I forgot to add one thing about India. India can never be a good ally for USA, for she is too independent and large, and the West is not used to having equal partners, only vassals.
     
    It could be treated as the EU, as a mildly subservient junior partner with some independence, not completely subservient. Problems with Pakistan and China would suggest an alignment with the West.

    Also Indians are quite conscious about their colonial past.
     
    Americans not the Brits would manage this relationship.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @Coconuts

  146. @AltanBakshi
    @AP

    Sorry for being careless, but why isnt neutrality of third parties enough for the "Crink's" victory? Anyway Burma and Pakistan are already squarely in the Chinese camp. Turkey and Philippines, who will be in the future as important economically as countries like Spain and Italy are now, are not anymore loyal allies of the West.

    I forgot to add one thing about India. India can never be a good ally for USA, for she is too independent and large, and the West is not used to having equal partners, only vassals. Also Indians are quite conscious about their colonial past.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Blinky Bill, @AP

    I think India will be a legit independent pole, Indosphere. You can be your own self-contained, culturally autonomous civilization with 1.4B people. They have a smart fraction elite to set the tone.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi, Aedib, mal
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The idea that India can play the same subordinate role in the Western Alliance that Germany or Japan once did and continue to do, is foolish. India has the size, endurance and necessary cultural/civilisational traits to overwhelm the West, in a way the Soviet Union or China could only dream of.

    US Foreign Policy in a nutshell.

    The wisdom of Yellow People.

    https://youtu.be/LuiK7jcC1fY


    Germany/Japan ▶ Soviet Union ▶ China ▶ India


    https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/indotriumph-4.jpg

    https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/indotriumph-2.jpg

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

  147. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AltanBakshi

    I think India will be a legit independent pole, Indosphere. You can be your own self-contained, culturally autonomous civilization with 1.4B people. They have a smart fraction elite to set the tone.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    The idea that India can play the same subordinate role in the Western Alliance that Germany or Japan once did and continue to do, is foolish. India has the size, endurance and necessary cultural/civilisational traits to overwhelm the West, in a way the Soviet Union or China could only dream of.

    US Foreign Policy in a nutshell.

    The wisdom of Yellow People.

    Germany/Japan ▶ Soviet Union ▶ China ▶ India

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    @Blinky Bill

    We are at the stage of development where we need access to western markets to generate capital (being resource poor we like China in the 90s have to accumulate capital the hard way via exports of manufactured goods and services..though dwarfed by China merchandise+services exports of USD 500 billion isn't too shabby).

    So expect a lot of we are natural allies of the west type soundbytes from India this decade.

    Its actually a very complicated situation we don't want to fight China but won't roll over either..We need western markets and technology and the West will soon ask us to join an anti China coalition which we probably will in name in return for massive market access(India EU FTA negotiations have again restarted after a long gap) but won't commit to a treaty that involves automatic declaration of war..We also trust Russia(Russia is universally liked here both for its glorious history of killing Muslims and taking away their land(God's work as far as we are concerned) i.e. Turks,Persians,Central Asian/Siberian Khanates as well an being extremely helpful and loyal friend in our formative years after independence using its security council veto 4 times in our favor on India related issues and dispatching nuclear submarines and part of its surface fleet to shadow the US Navy during the 1971 war..we remember) and so we have doggedly continued to buy Russian arms and technology(US not imposing sanctions on India for buying Russian arms is another interesting overlooked development) and continue to lobby behind the scenes for a normalization for Russia-Quad relations.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Felix Keverich, @Jatt Aryaa

  148. @Daniel Chieh
    @Max Payne

    1) Chinese male and female audience don't play the same games, and where they do, it is for different reasons. Men would play things that are much more grind or math heavy like Amazing Cultivation Simulator and overwhelmingly PUBG and League while women tended toward social and "dress-up" games which seem oddly addictive, like Dream City Idols. What perhaps you're talking about are games like Genshin which have both a male and female playerbase: but that's because miohiyo found a model that appeals to both their male and female playerbase by pushing more dressup/social interactions for women while allowing min-maxers to have their playground as well.

    The same girls that are buying skins for "its purdy" or "omg its so cute" don't care about the min-max, but they also don't get in the way, so everyone is happy.

    2) Grind is paramount in all Asian games, but its not Korean style grind. Chinese games try to encourage regular play as opposed to lengthy play and PvP(to my disappointment) is not very widespread. Many Chinese games encourage regular logging into, for example, but don't particularly reward just stat grinding.

    Many games now are increasingly rewarding the skill-grind dynamic of Dark Souls instead, which the developers probably realize not only feels more rewarding to the player but also causes players to create their own videos to show off, thus basically advertising the game for them.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsHQPUrVi48

    3)Pay to win is indeed a more accepted model in China, however, this heavily applies only to PvE models as opposed to direct PvP(and unfortunately, I think, has been discouraging PvP as a model in Chinese games now). The way it is setup is still so that you can spend money to impress your friends, but less so to beat them up. Micro-transactions are indeed king, but new content is pretty common as well and good micro-transaction games tend to bring in new content on a schedule.

    Responsiveness is actually pretty high, although perhaps not so high that Discord trans admins have taken over everything. Never forget: perfect community responsiveness and social acceptability in the West:

    https://i.imgur.com/yxeIWdT.png

    https://www.gaystarnews.com/article/minecraft-creator-notch-banned-from-10th-anniversary-for-anti-lgbti-comments/


    However, the once-famous game developer has nearly been wiped from the history of his game due to a series of anti-LGBTI outbursts.
     
    Microsoft has completely removed all mention of Notch since from Minecraft, he has been successfully unpersoned and no longer has ever existed.

    I think I find myself quite a bit more accepting of the Chinese attitude of responding to the latest chimpout by ignoring them completely. Any response just ends up fueling the fire.

    https://www.inverse.com/gaming/boycott-genshin-impact-explained-mihoyo

    4)Early Access is meh. Its mostly a scam, I think its scaling down in popularity in the West as well. Remember all of the Kickstarters blowing up? Yeah. Star Citizen? No Man's Sky? etc. I'm a game dev myself and I like the notion of Early Access, but its easily a trap.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB8ZAqZnRqM

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    China imported most of its gaming preferences (and anime aesthetic) from Japan, except the heavy PvP aspect, and slightly changed those to their social realities.

  149. @Svevlad
    @Znzn

    If they really wanted to keep LiaoDong, then they should have conquered (outer) Mongolia (the Gobi is a decent natural border) and all of Manchuria. Maybe swing down into Korea too and swamp it with settlers while deporting the natives into let's say Turkistan or Taymyr or some other useless territory. That would be pretty neat, but too bad.

    Replies: @Znzn, @Yellowface Anon, @Boomthorkell

    You could easily swamp Mongolia, actually easier than Kazakhstan since the population density is still even lower, but Korea was too populous to do that.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @Yellowface Anon

    Outer Mongolia has growing season of three months, hard to settle land like that, even Kazakhstan is a fertile paradise in a comparison.

  150. @Blinky Bill
    @Anatoly Karlin

    The idea that India can play the same subordinate role in the Western Alliance that Germany or Japan once did and continue to do, is foolish. India has the size, endurance and necessary cultural/civilisational traits to overwhelm the West, in a way the Soviet Union or China could only dream of.

    US Foreign Policy in a nutshell.

    The wisdom of Yellow People.

    https://youtu.be/LuiK7jcC1fY


    Germany/Japan ▶ Soviet Union ▶ China ▶ India


    https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/indotriumph-4.jpg

    https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/indotriumph-2.jpg

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

    We are at the stage of development where we need access to western markets to generate capital (being resource poor we like China in the 90s have to accumulate capital the hard way via exports of manufactured goods and services..though dwarfed by China merchandise+services exports of USD 500 billion isn’t too shabby).

    So expect a lot of we are natural allies of the west type soundbytes from India this decade.

    Its actually a very complicated situation we don’t want to fight China but won’t roll over either..We need western markets and technology and the West will soon ask us to join an anti China coalition which we probably will in name in return for massive market access(India EU FTA negotiations have again restarted after a long gap) but won’t commit to a treaty that involves automatic declaration of war..We also trust Russia(Russia is universally liked here both for its glorious history of killing Muslims and taking away their land(God’s work as far as we are concerned) i.e. Turks,Persians,Central Asian/Siberian Khanates as well an being extremely helpful and loyal friend in our formative years after independence using its security council veto 4 times in our favor on India related issues and dispatching nuclear submarines and part of its surface fleet to shadow the US Navy during the 1971 war..we remember) and so we have doggedly continued to buy Russian arms and technology(US not imposing sanctions on India for buying Russian arms is another interesting overlooked development) and continue to lobby behind the scenes for a normalization for Russia-Quad relations.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Vishnugupta

    Comment 32


    One thing looks certain, at least from an American point of view, the venture to open things up and help nurture India back in the 20’s has blossomed into America’s worst nightmare. The naivety of US policymakers over time is palpable. How US policymakers watched India’s meteoric rise over time without ever contemplating that at onetime in the future it would poise itself to become the US’ main rival in world affairs is tragic. That there never seemed to be a ‘plan B” with India shows how shortsighted American diplomacy is, favoring short term profit over long term containment. It looks like a rocky road is ahead for everybody involved.
     
    I understand it's in the interest of India to align with the US/West, but has the US learned from its past mistakes with building up China and aiding the Soviet Union. My guess is yes, the Americans will ensure the Indians are prevented from following the Chinese path of development. My question instead is how much time will pass before the Indians realise this door has been nailed shut by the West.

    My answer, a long time.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta, @AP, @Anatoly Karlin

    , @Felix Keverich
    @Vishnugupta

    So you're saying there is a method to Indian madness and this is not a Ukraine-type situation?

    Allowing India "massive market access" will destroy millions of jobs in the West, and futher erode Western industrial base. What makes you think it will happen? For what it's worth Ukrainian hopes for market access in the EU did not materialise. The country was locked into exporting cheap labor and other resources.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

    , @Jatt Aryaa
    @Vishnugupta

    Ok, but Khalistan's capital is Lahore.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

  151. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Those countries have rapidly decreasing populations. If the payments are working, they are not working nearly well enough.

    Their faster economic growth is solely down to them starting from a much lower base.

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    Population is not the be all end all. Africa has 1.2 billion, would you want to live there? Nigeria alone has 220 mil or some such, are they strong? Compared to Russia who only has 140 mil or Germany with 80 mil? Where I live now in socal, a gallon of milk costs $5, and avg. rent is about 2k a month. In “poor” Idaho where I lived for a time, the salary is 2/3 of the socal salary milk costs 2.50 and you can get a nice apt for 1k. PPP is a much better indicator of livability than GDP is. GDP is only extant because of financial inertia and reserve currency status. Socal is a far worse place to live than Boise. I’ve lived in both and tens of thousands of Californians are fleeing to this “poor” city. Sadly, ruining it as well. Which is a shame because it is or perhaps was, quite nice.

    There are more factors at play in how nice a place is to live in or how powerful a country is than mere numbers. You have to take a holistic view in your assessments. The US dept. of justice threatens US credit rating agencies when they downgrade the gov’ts rating for one example of how some stats are flawed/manipulated.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Tom Marvolo Riddle

    I agree that the US would likely be a more pleasant place to live with just 200 million people. I would also have supported a government that would have preserved this.

    My point was only that this would be less good for US state institutional power, around the globe; so I don't find it surprising that those state institutions took a different path.

  152. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Fall behind in what sense? Economic power? Technology? Military strength?

    Anyhow, I doubt it. Technological espionage is much easier today than it was half a century ago, innovations diffuse much more rapidly, and the rate of technological chance itself has fallen on most metrics so any lingering gaps (should they exist) will be less critical.

    In a world in which technological growth halts outright - and a Bifurcated world can be expected to have less of it, due to restrictions on human capital flows - there's a good possibility that China, with its East Asian tilt towards optimization over innovation, will win outright.

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle, @AP, @Blinky Bill, @Blinky Bill

    I think this documentary explains the cause of this pretty well.

  153. @AltanBakshi
    @Triteleia Laxa


    US foreign policy has been enormously successful over the last 100 years.
     
    Well when you have a continent sized fortress with oceans on both sides as impregnable walls... Think about UK in 19th century, and multiply it with ten, that's how lucky America is geographically. America is a Thassalocracy with its own continent! Can you have any better killer combo? Luck is not what made Sparta, Romans or Qin...

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    It’s incredible how our elites have wasted such a perfect chance for an isolated island utopia to instead run a modern version of the Athenian League.

  154. @Daniel Chieh
    @Felix Keverich


    US press is offering some interesting ideas: supplying satellite technology to Iran, arming Taleban, hacking/cyberwarfare etc. All of which are mere hoaxes at the moment, but something that Russia could potentially be doing…

     

    I do think that Russia probably isn't trying to hunt down the ransomware criminals too hard anymore.

    https://www.dw.com/en/putin-russia-open-to-hacker-exchange-with-us/a-57871507

    The fact that Putin offered to crack down suggests that after all of the constant hostility to Russia, the authorities aren't cracking down too hard on hackers so as long as they do not attack Russian-language companies. So that might be "incentive" for the West to play nice.

    https://krebsonsecurity.com/2021/05/try-this-one-weird-trick-russian-hackers-hate/

    In a Twitter discussion last week on ransomware attacks, KrebsOnSecurity noted that virtually all ransomware strains have a built-in failsafe designed to cover the backsides of the malware purveyors: They simply will not install on a Microsoft Windows computer that already has one of many types of virtual keyboards installed — such as Russian or Ukrainian. So many readers had questions in response to the tweet that I thought it was worth a blog post exploring this one weird cyber defense trick.
     

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    This even assumes the Ransomware guys weren’t already US, government or not.

    It would be funnier and better if they were genuine foreign cyber criminals. A kind of cyberprivateer, almost.

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Boomthorkell


    A kind of cyberprivateer, almost.
     
    I mean, they're in it for the lucre, not patriotism, but I'm sure they lose no sleep knowing they're stealing from the fag nation.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

  155. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Svevlad

    If you don't want to, why are you choosing to? You have complete free choice in what you write.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Boomthorkell

    One way to understand it is to realize that, through worse suffering, maybe people overall will suffer less.

    If every is a Hell that leaves even the victor unhappy and ruined, maybe there will be fewer wars. At the very least, no one can act smug about it.

    Svevlad is just taking it to the next reasonable level of unreasonable violence and suffering.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Boomthorkell

    Based and MADpilled. But never as good as what the WEF is proposing.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    , @Svevlad
    @Boomthorkell

    Finally someone gets it. The incessant attempts to minimize suffering, have just instead dropped our standards of what suffering is to such low levels, that a good chunk of the developed world's population is literally mentally ill. Anxiety, depression, and so on and so forth.

    Most people just don't feel threatened anymore. A massive, constant Sword of Damocles over their heads that is far more tangible and threatening in meatspace than getting cancelled on social media might reset their brains a bit.

    Otherwise, every subsequent generation which matures in the current social system will become increasingly neurotic and passive aggressive, and at a certain point something very, very bad will happen when it collapses.

    You notice today, that everyone keeps making "non-actionable" statements. As in, they just state some fact, in a very condescending, passive-aggressive manner, but you know that it stems from some... malicious intent.

    Example: I've recently encountered a post on a certain social network, that said "Greeks are half-gypsies who only have gyros and the sea." Note that it was far more condescending, too. This statement has nothing to do with anything. What does it mean? What about it? What is the point, my man? It clearly isn't meant to be a joke, nor is it a sarcastic reply to anything, it just is.

    We get to the non-actionable part. If this is so, and implied to be bad, then why aren't you calling for anything to be done about it? Maybe you secretly are wishing for their destruction, but don't want to admit it, which then just makes you a bad liar. If you don't, then why post it in the first place?

    I just want people to actually be goddamn honest and blatant with what they want, triple so on the internet where everyone is basically anonymous.

    There's a big pressure in the machine, and I simply say it's better to release it catastrophically now with absolutely unspeakable amounts of suffering and destruction, rather than keep it building up and just blowing up the thing altogether.

    After all, chucking your civilization back to the bronze age for more than a century because your soft, oversensitive and stress threshold reducing idiocy made everyone in a totally neurotic anxious mentally ill mess incapable of maintaining civilization is the peak of retardation, and should be punished accordingly, as Anatoly says.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Boomthorkell

    Are you sure you don't just want to watch the world burn?

    Replies: @Boomthorkell, @Daniel Chieh

  156. @Vishnugupta
    @Blinky Bill

    We are at the stage of development where we need access to western markets to generate capital (being resource poor we like China in the 90s have to accumulate capital the hard way via exports of manufactured goods and services..though dwarfed by China merchandise+services exports of USD 500 billion isn't too shabby).

    So expect a lot of we are natural allies of the west type soundbytes from India this decade.

    Its actually a very complicated situation we don't want to fight China but won't roll over either..We need western markets and technology and the West will soon ask us to join an anti China coalition which we probably will in name in return for massive market access(India EU FTA negotiations have again restarted after a long gap) but won't commit to a treaty that involves automatic declaration of war..We also trust Russia(Russia is universally liked here both for its glorious history of killing Muslims and taking away their land(God's work as far as we are concerned) i.e. Turks,Persians,Central Asian/Siberian Khanates as well an being extremely helpful and loyal friend in our formative years after independence using its security council veto 4 times in our favor on India related issues and dispatching nuclear submarines and part of its surface fleet to shadow the US Navy during the 1971 war..we remember) and so we have doggedly continued to buy Russian arms and technology(US not imposing sanctions on India for buying Russian arms is another interesting overlooked development) and continue to lobby behind the scenes for a normalization for Russia-Quad relations.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Felix Keverich, @Jatt Aryaa

    Comment 32

    One thing looks certain, at least from an American point of view, the venture to open things up and help nurture India back in the 20’s has blossomed into America’s worst nightmare. The naivety of US policymakers over time is palpable. How US policymakers watched India’s meteoric rise over time without ever contemplating that at onetime in the future it would poise itself to become the US’ main rival in world affairs is tragic. That there never seemed to be a ‘plan B” with India shows how shortsighted American diplomacy is, favoring short term profit over long term containment. It looks like a rocky road is ahead for everybody involved.

    I understand it’s in the interest of India to align with the US/West, but has the US learned from its past mistakes with building up China and aiding the Soviet Union. My guess is yes, the Americans will ensure the Indians are prevented from following the Chinese path of development. My question instead is how much time will pass before the Indians realise this door has been nailed shut by the West.

    [MORE]

    My answer, a long time.

    • Agree: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    @Blinky Bill

    I don't think it has been nailed shut..incidentally China followed the classic east Asian model pioneered by Meiji Japan. In its take off phase it closely aligned with the UK then after it developed and could build its own arms from raw materials in Japan...Given how greviously the Anglos suffered in terms of casualties fighting an industrialized Japan you thought they would be wary of helping any politically independent East Asian country industrialize especially one 10 times the size of Japan but no..And this is the 1970s when you had people like Henry Kissinger running the show..what makes you think today's LGBT rights champions see what people like Kissinger could not?

    Plus paradoxically the impression of Indians being incompetent and servile lessens the threat perception..seriously who in any western country sees India as a future super power?That is good.

    In the 1960s we got nuke tech from US and Canada for free because no one thought we would have the gall to build nukes with technology donated by them under the atoms for peace program ..well in 1974 we did..


    This decade is crucial we play our cards right by 2030 we will be well on our way..

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @sudden death

    , @AP
    @Blinky Bill


    My guess is yes, the Americans will ensure the Indians are prevented from following the Chinese path of development.
     
    Americans hoped that China would follow a Japanese or EU path, becoming a prosperous junior partner, instead of becoming a prosperous independent rival. I think America would be very happy if India becomes like another EU.

    Replies: @Felix Keverich

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Blinky Bill


    My guess is yes, the Americans will ensure the Indians are prevented from following the Chinese path of development.
     
    Not sure how they would be in a position to. There's some conspiracy theories that, say, the Americans choked off Japan's aerospace industry, but even so, there's a difference between a 127M country and a 1.4B one. One that is strategically autonomous, having good relations with Russia, being the informal leader of the non-aligned bloc, etc.

    Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain

  157. @Anatoly Karlin
    @sudden death

    It is primarily the US that is preventing Russia from cutting the population gap with China from 10x to 8x over just a couple of years or so.

    It also happens to be the US that is most interested in making Russia's 10x differential China into something more than of largely theoretical interest.

    Replies: @sudden death, @RadicalCenter

    Didn’t get the gist of your comment.

    As part of the US government’s needless belligerence, it has wrongly tried to harm the Russian people with economic sanctions. Is that what the US gov is doing that prevents Russians from cutting the population gap?

    And how could Russia cut the population gap with China that much in two years, with or without US interference?

    Thanks —

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @RadicalCenter

    If there was no US interference, it is almost certain that Belarus would be united with Russia by now, and a good chance that Ukraine, or Eastern Ukraine at any rate, would be so likewise or at least in a close association agreement.

    A Russia with effectively 200M people instead of 150M would not be vastly more powerful, but it would significantly improve its economies of scale.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell, @Aedib

  158. @AltanBakshi
    @AP

    Sorry for being careless, but why isnt neutrality of third parties enough for the "Crink's" victory? Anyway Burma and Pakistan are already squarely in the Chinese camp. Turkey and Philippines, who will be in the future as important economically as countries like Spain and Italy are now, are not anymore loyal allies of the West.

    I forgot to add one thing about India. India can never be a good ally for USA, for she is too independent and large, and the West is not used to having equal partners, only vassals. Also Indians are quite conscious about their colonial past.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Blinky Bill, @AP

    Sorry for being careless, but why isnt neutrality of third parties enough for the “Crink’s” victory?

    This is an excellent point and needs to be amplified, Bifurcation is in the interest of the Western Bloc. Any nation that chooses neutrality is in essence going against Western interests, our way or the highway!

    China and Russia never ask third countries to cut off relations with the West, this is a huge advantage they have in international relations.

    • Agree: showmethereal
  159. @Radicalcenter
    @reiner Tor

    I respectfully disagree that low population, high average age, and/or low fertility rate in Chinese provinces bordering Russia is any solace to Russia.

    What would stop china from readily moving millions of families to the once-Russia Far East from provinces that do not border Russia, if Russia collapses?

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    What would stop china from readily moving millions of families to the once-Russia Far East from provinces that do not border Russia, if Russia collapses?

    The same thing that prevents China from readily moving millions of families to their own North Eastern provinces right now, hence their rapid depopulation.

    • Replies: @Radicalcenter
    @Blinky Bill

    The difference is, China isn’t competing for control of the provinces they already have controlled and populated for centuries. They don’t need to move people there to take over new territory.

    By contrast, they will need to move people to the Russian Far East to effect and consolidate control over that new territory. I don’t see what would prevent them from doing so when they conclude that the circumstances are right.

    Also, let’s compare the population of those “depopulating” Chinese provinces in the Northeast with the population of the also-depopulating Russian Far East Federal District: 100 million to 7 million. As a bonus, possibly as many as a million of those seven million people are Chinese.

    Already over a decade ago, nearly 100,000 Chinese migrants were entering the Russian Far East each year. Please see https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/04/17/putin-warns-all-illegal-chinese-immigrants-living-in-its-far-east-to-leave-or-get-punished/

    This next article describes the Chinese practice of opening businesses in Russia and hiring only or almost only Chinese people, not Slavs or other peoples of the RF. It predicts that by 2050 — only 29 years from now — Chinese will be the second largest ethnicity in the RF after Russian (surpassing the Tatars):
    euromaidanpress.com/2016/10/28/chinese-to-becoming-second-largest-ethnicity-in-russia-moscow-demographer-says/

    China is already using steady settlement — some illegal under Russian law — to build a stronger physical, demographic, economic, and cultural foothold in Russia’s Far East. China would like to have that territory, for its natural resources and as a buffer providing some strategic depth against land forces, and it could yet happen.

    Chinese officials, including diplomats, have been using the former Chinese name for part of Russia’s Far East in angry online comments, following a celebration of Vladivostok’s 160th anniversary. We’ll see whether Russia can fend them off. I hope so.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @Dmitry, @d dan

  160. @Blinky Bill
    @Vishnugupta

    Comment 32


    One thing looks certain, at least from an American point of view, the venture to open things up and help nurture India back in the 20’s has blossomed into America’s worst nightmare. The naivety of US policymakers over time is palpable. How US policymakers watched India’s meteoric rise over time without ever contemplating that at onetime in the future it would poise itself to become the US’ main rival in world affairs is tragic. That there never seemed to be a ‘plan B” with India shows how shortsighted American diplomacy is, favoring short term profit over long term containment. It looks like a rocky road is ahead for everybody involved.
     
    I understand it's in the interest of India to align with the US/West, but has the US learned from its past mistakes with building up China and aiding the Soviet Union. My guess is yes, the Americans will ensure the Indians are prevented from following the Chinese path of development. My question instead is how much time will pass before the Indians realise this door has been nailed shut by the West.

    My answer, a long time.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta, @AP, @Anatoly Karlin

    I don’t think it has been nailed shut..incidentally China followed the classic east Asian model pioneered by Meiji Japan. In its take off phase it closely aligned with the UK then after it developed and could build its own arms from raw materials in Japan…Given how greviously the Anglos suffered in terms of casualties fighting an industrialized Japan you thought they would be wary of helping any politically independent East Asian country industrialize especially one 10 times the size of Japan but no..And this is the 1970s when you had people like Henry Kissinger running the show..what makes you think today’s LGBT rights champions see what people like Kissinger could not?

    Plus paradoxically the impression of Indians being incompetent and servile lessens the threat perception..seriously who in any western country sees India as a future super power?That is good.

    In the 1960s we got nuke tech from US and Canada for free because no one thought we would have the gall to build nukes with technology donated by them under the atoms for peace program ..well in 1974 we did..

    This decade is crucial we play our cards right by 2030 we will be well on our way..

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Thanks: Boomthorkell
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Vishnugupta

    Unlike nationalists like you or (ironical?) Indotriumphalists like Karlin, IQ 80 India isn't gonna be a hyperpower, unlike IQ 100 China or IQ 95 (but falling) US. You'll need generations of eugenics and educational improvement, or maybe some transhumanism as Karlin suggested.

    Your country is overinvesting in services that serve neocolonial interests instead of manufacturing where foreigners immediately benefit, but locals reap the gains in the long term too. Even Bangladesh does better in textiles and fabric than India. Same reason why the Philippines isn't converging with even Indonesia. Once you get your economics wrong there's no place for social or cultural development. (Have you actually read what Blinky Bill wrote?)

    Your best hope would be upper-middle income status by 2040, powerful but never matching up with China, if Modi ended up not executing the WEF's depopulation agenda and killing hundreds of millions.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    , @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Vishnugupta

    Well, one wishes Indians well, but the caste system, residual servility to the West (see Malla), Hindutva fascism, the influence of Overseas Indians, with first loyalties to the West and anthropogenic climate destabilisation all make it unlikely that India will follow China's path.

    , @sudden death
    @Vishnugupta

    Western Powers had long been in post-colonial phase, whereas Japan-GB struggle in WWII was essentially colonial war, something like way earlier Dutch, French, Anglo wars in North America with Natives participating too. Modern China related struggle is still partially geoideological conflict with it at least nominally being left wing dictatorship to this day.

    At first sight there seems not to be much what superpowered democratic India, quietly strenghtened while being in a Western camp, potentially would want/could get geopolitically at extreme that somehow truly concern the democratic West? Get back Pakistan/Bangladesh? Even if so, why should it be existential matter for the West? Beyond it, what else - capture Nepal, Sri Lanka or something?

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @DNS

  161. @Boomthorkell
    @Daniel Chieh

    This even assumes the Ransomware guys weren't already US, government or not.

    It would be funnier and better if they were genuine foreign cyber criminals. A kind of cyberprivateer, almost.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    A kind of cyberprivateer, almost.

    I mean, they’re in it for the lucre, not patriotism, but I’m sure they lose no sleep knowing they’re stealing from the fag nation.

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @Daniel Chieh

    In all fairness, how many privateers had patriotism outweigh lucre?

    I'm still not sure they are privateers though, rather than just a US department stealing from another department.

  162. AP says:
    @Blinky Bill
    @Vishnugupta

    Comment 32


    One thing looks certain, at least from an American point of view, the venture to open things up and help nurture India back in the 20’s has blossomed into America’s worst nightmare. The naivety of US policymakers over time is palpable. How US policymakers watched India’s meteoric rise over time without ever contemplating that at onetime in the future it would poise itself to become the US’ main rival in world affairs is tragic. That there never seemed to be a ‘plan B” with India shows how shortsighted American diplomacy is, favoring short term profit over long term containment. It looks like a rocky road is ahead for everybody involved.
     
    I understand it's in the interest of India to align with the US/West, but has the US learned from its past mistakes with building up China and aiding the Soviet Union. My guess is yes, the Americans will ensure the Indians are prevented from following the Chinese path of development. My question instead is how much time will pass before the Indians realise this door has been nailed shut by the West.

    My answer, a long time.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta, @AP, @Anatoly Karlin

    My guess is yes, the Americans will ensure the Indians are prevented from following the Chinese path of development.

    Americans hoped that China would follow a Japanese or EU path, becoming a prosperous junior partner, instead of becoming a prosperous independent rival. I think America would be very happy if India becomes like another EU.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    @AP


    America would be very happy if India becomes like another EU
     
    I'm thinking more along the lines of the Ukraine: using the country as a battering ram against China and giving just enough support to keep pro-US regime afloat, while the country is bled dry.
  163. AP says:
    @AltanBakshi
    @AP

    Sorry for being careless, but why isnt neutrality of third parties enough for the "Crink's" victory? Anyway Burma and Pakistan are already squarely in the Chinese camp. Turkey and Philippines, who will be in the future as important economically as countries like Spain and Italy are now, are not anymore loyal allies of the West.

    I forgot to add one thing about India. India can never be a good ally for USA, for she is too independent and large, and the West is not used to having equal partners, only vassals. Also Indians are quite conscious about their colonial past.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Blinky Bill, @AP

    Sorry for being careless, but why isnt neutrality of third parties enough for the “Crink’s” victory?

    It might not be an option, they might be forced to choose to go along.

    Anyway Burma and Pakistan are already squarely in the Chinese camp. Turkey and Philippines, who will be in the future as important economically as countries like Spain and Italy are now, are not anymore loyal allies of the West.

    Well, that’s the key. Either the Philippines and the rest of SE Asia see China as a greater threat and join the Anglo-EU Japanese to contain it, or they accept the role of junior partner to China. People of these countries often resent their Chinese minorities and may be wary of getting swallowed by the massive Chinese behemoth. I won’t predict which will happen.

    Pakistan is kind of useless. But it’s alliance with China contributes to Indian ill-will towards China.

    I forgot to add one thing about India. India can never be a good ally for USA, for she is too independent and large, and the West is not used to having equal partners, only vassals.

    It could be treated as the EU, as a mildly subservient junior partner with some independence, not completely subservient. Problems with Pakistan and China would suggest an alignment with the West.

    Also Indians are quite conscious about their colonial past.

    Americans not the Brits would manage this relationship.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @AP


    Pakistan is kind of useless. But it’s alliance with China contributes to Indian ill-will towards China.
     
    Keeping India contained to subcontinent and land connection to Iran are not useless.

    It could be treated as the EU, as a mildly subservient junior partner with some independence, not completely subservient. Problems with Pakistan and China would suggest an alignment with the West.
     
    Indian elites are very conscious about the sovereignty of their country, just like Putin's Russia.

    Replies: @AP

    , @Coconuts
    @AP


    Americans not the Brits would manage this relationship.
     
    The way in which demographic change is developing in the UK, British of Indian descent will probably be involved with managing these relationships. Young British Indians are already concentrated in the upper levels of society, you should see more and more reaching senior levels in politics (there are already some at the highest level).

    Canada and the US also appear to be open to immigration from India, and it is developing in a smaller way within other Western allied countries (Poland), that may be expanded over time.

    Looking for some rational purpose behind the import of US anti-racist ideology that you see in the UK, facilitating and smoothing this demographic change and the gradual merging of elites would be a clear one.
  164. @Svevlad
    @Znzn

    If they really wanted to keep LiaoDong, then they should have conquered (outer) Mongolia (the Gobi is a decent natural border) and all of Manchuria. Maybe swing down into Korea too and swamp it with settlers while deporting the natives into let's say Turkistan or Taymyr or some other useless territory. That would be pretty neat, but too bad.

    Replies: @Znzn, @Yellowface Anon, @Boomthorkell

    Russia tried its big Manchuria move, exactly as stated, in 1640. The Cossacks lost to the Manchu, the issue was settled for the time, and the East was populated at a correspondingly slower rate thanks to missing out on the best land.

    Had China been further partitioned, and peace with Japan arranged over Korea, it’s possible this might have become to pass in the early 20th-century.

  165. @AP
    @Blinky Bill


    My guess is yes, the Americans will ensure the Indians are prevented from following the Chinese path of development.
     
    Americans hoped that China would follow a Japanese or EU path, becoming a prosperous junior partner, instead of becoming a prosperous independent rival. I think America would be very happy if India becomes like another EU.

    Replies: @Felix Keverich

    America would be very happy if India becomes like another EU

    I’m thinking more along the lines of the Ukraine: using the country as a battering ram against China and giving just enough support to keep pro-US regime afloat, while the country is bled dry.

  166. @Daniel Chieh
    @Boomthorkell


    A kind of cyberprivateer, almost.
     
    I mean, they're in it for the lucre, not patriotism, but I'm sure they lose no sleep knowing they're stealing from the fag nation.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    In all fairness, how many privateers had patriotism outweigh lucre?

    I’m still not sure they are privateers though, rather than just a US department stealing from another department.

  167. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Fall behind in what sense? Economic power? Technology? Military strength?

    Anyhow, I doubt it. Technological espionage is much easier today than it was half a century ago, innovations diffuse much more rapidly, and the rate of technological chance itself has fallen on most metrics so any lingering gaps (should they exist) will be less critical.

    In a world in which technological growth halts outright - and a Bifurcated world can be expected to have less of it, due to restrictions on human capital flows - there's a good possibility that China, with its East Asian tilt towards optimization over innovation, will win outright.

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle, @AP, @Blinky Bill, @Blinky Bill

    Fall behind in what sense? Economic power? Technology? Military strength?

    Any of these. Eurasia is already significantly poorer than Anglo world + EU + Japan; if India joins the latter as it becomes wealthier, Eurasia will also be significantly outnumbered. More people who are wealthier are more likely to come up with more technological advancement; theft will reduce the lag but it will still be there.

    Technological espionage is much easier today than it was half a century ago, innovations diffuse much more rapidly, and the rate of technological chance itself has fallen on most metrics so any lingering gaps (should they exist) will be less critical.

    The next technological leap we don’t know about would likely occur in non-Eurasia; more people, wealth, and tradition of innovation.

    Of course, the West is playing with fire in terms of its peculiar recent obsessions; it may just implode.

    • Agree: Anatoly Karlin
    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @AP


    Of course, the West is playing with fire in terms of its peculiar recent obsessions; it may just implode.
     
    Which is why the next technological leap will be our last one (the Singularity) or it will never happen, since the historical current is retreating.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    The only two obvious "game-changing" technological leaps are IMO just two candidates - AGI, and unraveling the genetic basis of human intelligence (and then applying it on a large scale).

    I agree that if AGI is developed, at this rate it will happen in the West, probably America, as it dominates AI research. Though who knows whom AGI will serve, if anyone.

    If "biosingularity", India is funnily enough perhaps the best "dark horse" candidate: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/china-torpedoes-biosingularity-bid/

    Replies: @AP

  168. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Fall behind in what sense? Economic power? Technology? Military strength?
     
    Any of these. Eurasia is already significantly poorer than Anglo world + EU + Japan; if India joins the latter as it becomes wealthier, Eurasia will also be significantly outnumbered. More people who are wealthier are more likely to come up with more technological advancement; theft will reduce the lag but it will still be there.

    Technological espionage is much easier today than it was half a century ago, innovations diffuse much more rapidly, and the rate of technological chance itself has fallen on most metrics so any lingering gaps (should they exist) will be less critical.
     
    The next technological leap we don't know about would likely occur in non-Eurasia; more people, wealth, and tradition of innovation.

    Of course, the West is playing with fire in terms of its peculiar recent obsessions; it may just implode.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin

    Of course, the West is playing with fire in terms of its peculiar recent obsessions; it may just implode.

    Which is why the next technological leap will be our last one (the Singularity) or it will never happen, since the historical current is retreating.

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Yellowface Anon

    I doubt it. Singularities are just technological and social paradigm shifts. They happen every now and then, and usually result in a new system being in place. From hunter gatherer societies to slave-owning antique societies to feudalism and finally capitalism. There is never a "final" singularity, because it seems that everything works on a cyclical basis.

    Then of course, breaking the wheel is always possible. That doesn't mean it will happen in the next "singularity moment"

  169. @Vishnugupta
    @Blinky Bill

    We are at the stage of development where we need access to western markets to generate capital (being resource poor we like China in the 90s have to accumulate capital the hard way via exports of manufactured goods and services..though dwarfed by China merchandise+services exports of USD 500 billion isn't too shabby).

    So expect a lot of we are natural allies of the west type soundbytes from India this decade.

    Its actually a very complicated situation we don't want to fight China but won't roll over either..We need western markets and technology and the West will soon ask us to join an anti China coalition which we probably will in name in return for massive market access(India EU FTA negotiations have again restarted after a long gap) but won't commit to a treaty that involves automatic declaration of war..We also trust Russia(Russia is universally liked here both for its glorious history of killing Muslims and taking away their land(God's work as far as we are concerned) i.e. Turks,Persians,Central Asian/Siberian Khanates as well an being extremely helpful and loyal friend in our formative years after independence using its security council veto 4 times in our favor on India related issues and dispatching nuclear submarines and part of its surface fleet to shadow the US Navy during the 1971 war..we remember) and so we have doggedly continued to buy Russian arms and technology(US not imposing sanctions on India for buying Russian arms is another interesting overlooked development) and continue to lobby behind the scenes for a normalization for Russia-Quad relations.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Felix Keverich, @Jatt Aryaa

    So you’re saying there is a method to Indian madness and this is not a Ukraine-type situation?

    Allowing India “massive market access” will destroy millions of jobs in the West, and futher erode Western industrial base. What makes you think it will happen? For what it’s worth Ukrainian hopes for market access in the EU did not materialise. The country was locked into exporting cheap labor and other resources.

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    @Felix Keverich

    1.India is not Ukraine.We have no delusions of being accepted as Westerners or anything else we are not.Our politicians corrupt as they are won't sell the country for money because our own private sector provides many orders of magnitude more funds than any western subversion initiative can provide.Our private sector is generally not recently minted oligarchs running extractive industries but established families running large fortune 500/1000 companies doing companies like Reliance Industries,Tata,AV Birla etc.They are as likely to betray India like Krupp or Siemens were likely to betray Germany.

    2. We already export over USD 500 billions worth of manufactured goods and services which is growing. So we are not starting from scratch.India already exports over USD 50 billion in manufactured goods to Europe. Engineering Goods ,Pharmaceuticals and Gems and Jewelry primarily.

    Negotiations for the India EU FTA was restarted at the EU's request and the India EU summit at Portugal this year was also the EU's idea.

    What is on the cards will be clearer in a year.

    Replies: @Beckow

  170. @Vishnugupta
    @Blinky Bill

    I don't think it has been nailed shut..incidentally China followed the classic east Asian model pioneered by Meiji Japan. In its take off phase it closely aligned with the UK then after it developed and could build its own arms from raw materials in Japan...Given how greviously the Anglos suffered in terms of casualties fighting an industrialized Japan you thought they would be wary of helping any politically independent East Asian country industrialize especially one 10 times the size of Japan but no..And this is the 1970s when you had people like Henry Kissinger running the show..what makes you think today's LGBT rights champions see what people like Kissinger could not?

    Plus paradoxically the impression of Indians being incompetent and servile lessens the threat perception..seriously who in any western country sees India as a future super power?That is good.

    In the 1960s we got nuke tech from US and Canada for free because no one thought we would have the gall to build nukes with technology donated by them under the atoms for peace program ..well in 1974 we did..


    This decade is crucial we play our cards right by 2030 we will be well on our way..

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @sudden death

    Unlike nationalists like you or (ironical?) Indotriumphalists like Karlin, IQ 80 India isn’t gonna be a hyperpower, unlike IQ 100 China or IQ 95 (but falling) US. You’ll need generations of eugenics and educational improvement, or maybe some transhumanism as Karlin suggested.

    Your country is overinvesting in services that serve neocolonial interests instead of manufacturing where foreigners immediately benefit, but locals reap the gains in the long term too. Even Bangladesh does better in textiles and fabric than India. Same reason why the Philippines isn’t converging with even Indonesia. Once you get your economics wrong there’s no place for social or cultural development. (Have you actually read what Blinky Bill wrote?)

    Your best hope would be upper-middle income status by 2040, powerful but never matching up with China, if Modi ended up not executing the WEF’s depopulation agenda and killing hundreds of millions.

    • Troll: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Yellowface Anon


    You’ll need generations of eugenics and educational improvement
     
    You underestimate the power of selection. India has so many people they can "grind down" the lowest intelligence tiers and not even feel it.

    They're probably just waiting for the situation to crystalize for maximum efficiency. After this, expect a lot more "chemical spills" and "accidents" that somehow always lead to the absolute poorest becoming sterile.

    And this is very plausible, the Indian elites are notoriously disdainful of their genetically challenged brethren

    Replies: @showmethereal

  171. @Boomthorkell
    @Triteleia Laxa

    One way to understand it is to realize that, through worse suffering, maybe people overall will suffer less.

    If every is a Hell that leaves even the victor unhappy and ruined, maybe there will be fewer wars. At the very least, no one can act smug about it.

    Svevlad is just taking it to the next reasonable level of unreasonable violence and suffering.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad, @Triteleia Laxa

    Based and MADpilled. But never as good as what the WEF is proposing.

    • LOL: Boomthorkell
    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @Yellowface Anon

    Damn, if this were PCM, I'd finally get a based and pilled point!

    THe WEF is almost worse than a catastrophic war to me. The smug-fuckery of an elitist purge and slow roll enslavement of everyone else is grating.

    Here's hoping someone upends the table with free energy and easy space travel.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Bashibuzuk

  172. 1.India is not Ukraine.We have no delusions of being accepted as Westerners or anything else we are not.Our politicians corrupt as they are won’t sell the country for money because our own private sector provides many orders of magnitude more funds than any western subversion initiative can provide.Our private sector is generally not recently minted oligarchs running extractive industries but established families running large fortune 500/1000 companies doing companies like Reliance Industries,Tata,AV Birla etc.They are as likely to betray India like Krupp or Siemens were likely to betray Germany.

    2. We already export over USD 500 billions worth of manufactured goods and services which is growing. So we are not starting from scratch.India already exports over USD 50 billion in manufactured goods to Europe. Engineering Goods ,Pharmaceuticals and Gems and Jewelry primarily.

    Negotiations for the India EU FTA was restarted at the EU’s request and the India EU summit at Portugal this year was also the EU’s idea.

    What is on the cards will be clearer in a year.

    • Replies: @Felix Keverich
    @Vishnugupta

    The moment India finds itself locked in a conflict with China, it will lose all its bargaining power, and will have to take any terms the West is offering. To continue my Ukraine analogy, their "association agreement" with the EU turned out not at all what they expected and wanted.

    And India that is not in conflict with China is kinda useless to the West, so expect them to dangle this carrot in your face until you fall into their trap, at which point you will discover, that fighting Chinese hordes has always been your destiny, and praise the Holy Javelins. lol

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

  173. @Felix Keverich
    @AP

    China brings Myanmar and Pakistan to the table. Iran has Yemen and Syria. Belarus and the Ukraine are bound to reunite with Russia sooner rather than later.

    In Latin America we can count on Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua, placing mainland US in the range of our cruise missiles. It's a coalition.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    China brings Myanmar and Pakistan to the table. Iran has Yemen and Syria. Belarus and the Ukraine are bound to reunite with Russia sooner rather than later.

    In Latin America we can count on Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua.

    Let me help you Felix with you based comment.

    China brings Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Nepal and Pakistan to the table. Iran has Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon (Hezbollah grows stronger with every generation). Belarus and the Ukraine are bound to reunite with Russia sooner rather than later and also has the support of Serbia and Armenia.

    In Latin America we can count on Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua and now Peru.

    With Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan working together all of Central Asia will come along for the ride Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and eventually even Afghanistan.

    There is also the Southern African bloc of South Africa, Zimbabwe, Angola and Mozambique.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    If pressured by the West who will Mongolia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia, Turkey and Vietnam choose. They all prefer to stay neutral and will resent Western pressure to choose sides.

    Do Brazil, Argentina and Chile have the strength to resist forced alignment and continue to maintain a neutral foreign policy?

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

  174. @Felix Keverich
    @Vishnugupta

    So you're saying there is a method to Indian madness and this is not a Ukraine-type situation?

    Allowing India "massive market access" will destroy millions of jobs in the West, and futher erode Western industrial base. What makes you think it will happen? For what it's worth Ukrainian hopes for market access in the EU did not materialise. The country was locked into exporting cheap labor and other resources.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

    1.India is not Ukraine.We have no delusions of being accepted as Westerners or anything else we are not.Our politicians corrupt as they are won’t sell the country for money because our own private sector provides many orders of magnitude more funds than any western subversion initiative can provide.Our private sector is generally not recently minted oligarchs running extractive industries but established families running large fortune 500/1000 companies doing companies like Reliance Industries,Tata,AV Birla etc.They are as likely to betray India like Krupp or Siemens were likely to betray Germany.

    2. We already export over USD 500 billions worth of manufactured goods and services which is growing. So we are not starting from scratch.India already exports over USD 50 billion in manufactured goods to Europe. Engineering Goods ,Pharmaceuticals and Gems and Jewelry primarily.

    Negotiations for the India EU FTA was restarted at the EU’s request and the India EU summit at Portugal this year was also the EU’s idea.

    What is on the cards will be clearer in a year.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Vishnugupta


    ...India is not Ukraine.We have no delusions of being accepted as Westerners or anything else we are not.
     
    True, delusions lead to tears. All recently minted oligarchs were minted with Western support - they wouldn't be oligarchs for long if they don't do what they are told. That is not the case w Tata, Birla etc... it is almost universally the case in Ukraine and used to be in Russia. Compradors are literally the bought people, they are bought for a reason.

    Countries that have better universal access around the world and loyal (preferably native) business class will do better in the future. US-EU-Japan are slowly closing off, others are opening up. EU is fundamentally not competitive due to its lack of resources and better living standards. EU has a choice: protect its markets or slowly go down. Personally, I am in favor of closing off access to EU and preserving the lifestyle - I don't put much value on productivity, trinkets, efficiency and similar nonsense. Others see it differently, this will be a bloody few decades of transition.

    There will not be a technology miracle salvation for the West - that is an illusion (not the only one that AP lives by). The people are not who they used to be and there is no demand for a new miracle. Why would the elites need one?

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

  175. @Blinky Bill
    @Felix Keverich


    China brings Myanmar and Pakistan to the table. Iran has Yemen and Syria. Belarus and the Ukraine are bound to reunite with Russia sooner rather than later.

    In Latin America we can count on Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua.
     

    Let me help you Felix with you based comment.


    China brings Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Nepal and Pakistan to the table. Iran has Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon (Hezbollah grows stronger with every generation). Belarus and the Ukraine are bound to reunite with Russia sooner rather than later and also has the support of Serbia and Armenia.

    In Latin America we can count on Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua and now Peru.

    With Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan working together all of Central Asia will come along for the ride Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and eventually even Afghanistan.

    There is also the Southern African bloc of South Africa, Zimbabwe, Angola and Mozambique.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    If pressured by the West who will Mongolia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia, Turkey and Vietnam choose. They all prefer to stay neutral and will resent Western pressure to choose sides.

    Do Brazil, Argentina and Chile have the strength to resist forced alignment and continue to maintain a neutral foreign policy?

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @Blinky Bill

    Well Malaysia and Indonesia have enough geographical distance from China and have a strong history of anti-Chinese racism and anti-communism, so I could imagine a future where they could be aligned with the USAtan.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  176. @Vishnugupta
    @Blinky Bill

    We are at the stage of development where we need access to western markets to generate capital (being resource poor we like China in the 90s have to accumulate capital the hard way via exports of manufactured goods and services..though dwarfed by China merchandise+services exports of USD 500 billion isn't too shabby).

    So expect a lot of we are natural allies of the west type soundbytes from India this decade.

    Its actually a very complicated situation we don't want to fight China but won't roll over either..We need western markets and technology and the West will soon ask us to join an anti China coalition which we probably will in name in return for massive market access(India EU FTA negotiations have again restarted after a long gap) but won't commit to a treaty that involves automatic declaration of war..We also trust Russia(Russia is universally liked here both for its glorious history of killing Muslims and taking away their land(God's work as far as we are concerned) i.e. Turks,Persians,Central Asian/Siberian Khanates as well an being extremely helpful and loyal friend in our formative years after independence using its security council veto 4 times in our favor on India related issues and dispatching nuclear submarines and part of its surface fleet to shadow the US Navy during the 1971 war..we remember) and so we have doggedly continued to buy Russian arms and technology(US not imposing sanctions on India for buying Russian arms is another interesting overlooked development) and continue to lobby behind the scenes for a normalization for Russia-Quad relations.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Felix Keverich, @Jatt Aryaa

    Ok, but Khalistan’s capital is Lahore.

    ਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕਾਖਾਲਸਾਵਾਹਿਗੁਰੂਜੀਕੀਫਤਿਹ

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
  177. Litmus test

    • Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Blinky Bill

    That simply illustrates how far behind the West will fall. It is good to see thugs shooting themselves in the head.

    , @Anatoly Karlin
    @Blinky Bill

    East-Central Europe bans Huawei because their main goal in life is to please America. India bans it because it has its own legitimate natsec reasons to do so.

    Replies: @utu, @Vishnugupta, @Felix Keverich, @Dmitry

  178. @Vishnugupta
    1.India is not Ukraine.We have no delusions of being accepted as Westerners or anything else we are not.Our politicians corrupt as they are won't sell the country for money because our own private sector provides many orders of magnitude more funds than any western subversion initiative can provide.Our private sector is generally not recently minted oligarchs running extractive industries but established families running large fortune 500/1000 companies doing companies like Reliance Industries,Tata,AV Birla etc.They are as likely to betray India like Krupp or Siemens were likely to betray Germany.

    2. We already export over USD 500 billions worth of manufactured goods and services which is growing. So we are not starting from scratch.India already exports over USD 50 billion in manufactured goods to Europe. Engineering Goods ,Pharmaceuticals and Gems and Jewelry primarily.

    Negotiations for the India EU FTA was restarted at the EU's request and the India EU summit at Portugal this year was also the EU's idea.

    What is on the cards will be clearer in a year.

    Replies: @Felix Keverich

    The moment India finds itself locked in a conflict with China, it will lose all its bargaining power, and will have to take any terms the West is offering. To continue my Ukraine analogy, their “association agreement” with the EU turned out not at all what they expected and wanted.

    And India that is not in conflict with China is kinda useless to the West, so expect them to dangle this carrot in your face until you fall into their trap, at which point you will discover, that fighting Chinese hordes has always been your destiny, and praise the Holy Javelins. lol

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Felix Keverich

    India has 1.4B people, which is a bit more than 35M. Although desirable, its economies of scale make Western ties ultimately optional. (Same is true wrt China).

  179. @AP
    @AltanBakshi


    Sorry for being careless, but why isnt neutrality of third parties enough for the “Crink’s” victory?
     
    It might not be an option, they might be forced to choose to go along.

    Anyway Burma and Pakistan are already squarely in the Chinese camp. Turkey and Philippines, who will be in the future as important economically as countries like Spain and Italy are now, are not anymore loyal allies of the West.
     
    Well, that's the key. Either the Philippines and the rest of SE Asia see China as a greater threat and join the Anglo-EU Japanese to contain it, or they accept the role of junior partner to China. People of these countries often resent their Chinese minorities and may be wary of getting swallowed by the massive Chinese behemoth. I won't predict which will happen.

    Pakistan is kind of useless. But it's alliance with China contributes to Indian ill-will towards China.

    I forgot to add one thing about India. India can never be a good ally for USA, for she is too independent and large, and the West is not used to having equal partners, only vassals.
     
    It could be treated as the EU, as a mildly subservient junior partner with some independence, not completely subservient. Problems with Pakistan and China would suggest an alignment with the West.

    Also Indians are quite conscious about their colonial past.
     
    Americans not the Brits would manage this relationship.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @Coconuts

    Pakistan is kind of useless. But it’s alliance with China contributes to Indian ill-will towards China.

    Keeping India contained to subcontinent and land connection to Iran are not useless.

    It could be treated as the EU, as a mildly subservient junior partner with some independence, not completely subservient. Problems with Pakistan and China would suggest an alignment with the West.

    Indian elites are very conscious about the sovereignty of their country, just like Putin’s Russia.

    • Agree: Vishnugupta, Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @AP
    @AltanBakshi


    Pakistan is kind of useless. But it’s alliance with China contributes to Indian ill-will towards China.

    Keeping India contained to subcontinent and land connection to Iran are not useless.
     
    Pakistan would be useful for China, if China were in conflict with Russia and if Iran were on China's side. In this case yes, Pakistan would be a link to Iran. It would also be useful in conflict with Russia over influence in Central Asia.

    But since China and Russia are friends, China can access Iran through Central Asia. It does not need Pakistan for that.

    It could be treated as the EU, as a mildly subservient junior partner with some independence, not completely subservient. Problems with Pakistan and China would suggest an alignment with the West.

    Indian elites are very conscious about the sovereignty of their country, just like Putin’s Russia.

     

    EU isn't exactly a non-sovereign puppet of the USA. As someone else noted, Indians have entered the Western elites. I'm not going to predict which way SE Asia and Turkey go, but 60/40 odds that India joins the West.

    Replies: @showmethereal, @Blinky Bill

  180. @Svevlad
    @AltanBakshi

    Someone, not sure who now, here at Unz wrote an article about how Borat is basically just one long jewish "polack joke" eg makes fun of east europeans. It's only disguised by weird mishmash of balkans, caucasus and central asia

    Replies: @Svidomyatheart

    It was Steve Sailer irrc

    • Agree: Svevlad
  181. @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    If pressured by the West who will Mongolia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Malaysia, Turkey and Vietnam choose. They all prefer to stay neutral and will resent Western pressure to choose sides.

    Do Brazil, Argentina and Chile have the strength to resist forced alignment and continue to maintain a neutral foreign policy?

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

    Well Malaysia and Indonesia have enough geographical distance from China and have a strong history of anti-Chinese racism and anti-communism, so I could imagine a future where they could be aligned with the USAtan.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @AltanBakshi

    Perhaps.

    https://youtu.be/ImflksVh9fY?t=116

    https://youtu.be/zp5szs3AWCY?t=22

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/01/Presiden_Sukarno.jpg/800px-Presiden_Sukarno.jpg

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  182. @AltanBakshi
    @Blinky Bill

    Well Malaysia and Indonesia have enough geographical distance from China and have a strong history of anti-Chinese racism and anti-communism, so I could imagine a future where they could be aligned with the USAtan.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    Perhaps.

    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%253A%252F%252Fs3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com%252Fpsh-ex-ftnikkei-3937bb4%252Fimages%252F_aliases%252Farticleimage%252F4%252F0%252F7%252F3%252F24423704-4-eng-GB%252F20200115-US-China-Survey-Hrz.png?source=nar-cms.png

    Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain

  183. @Boomthorkell
    @Triteleia Laxa

    One way to understand it is to realize that, through worse suffering, maybe people overall will suffer less.

    If every is a Hell that leaves even the victor unhappy and ruined, maybe there will be fewer wars. At the very least, no one can act smug about it.

    Svevlad is just taking it to the next reasonable level of unreasonable violence and suffering.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad, @Triteleia Laxa

    Finally someone gets it. The incessant attempts to minimize suffering, have just instead dropped our standards of what suffering is to such low levels, that a good chunk of the developed world’s population is literally mentally ill. Anxiety, depression, and so on and so forth.

    Most people just don’t feel threatened anymore. A massive, constant Sword of Damocles over their heads that is far more tangible and threatening in meatspace than getting cancelled on social media might reset their brains a bit.

    Otherwise, every subsequent generation which matures in the current social system will become increasingly neurotic and passive aggressive, and at a certain point something very, very bad will happen when it collapses.

    You notice today, that everyone keeps making “non-actionable” statements. As in, they just state some fact, in a very condescending, passive-aggressive manner, but you know that it stems from some… malicious intent.

    Example: I’ve recently encountered a post on a certain social network, that said “Greeks are half-gypsies who only have gyros and the sea.” Note that it was far more condescending, too. This statement has nothing to do with anything. What does it mean? What about it? What is the point, my man? It clearly isn’t meant to be a joke, nor is it a sarcastic reply to anything, it just is.

    We get to the non-actionable part. If this is so, and implied to be bad, then why aren’t you calling for anything to be done about it? Maybe you secretly are wishing for their destruction, but don’t want to admit it, which then just makes you a bad liar. If you don’t, then why post it in the first place?

    I just want people to actually be goddamn honest and blatant with what they want, triple so on the internet where everyone is basically anonymous.

    There’s a big pressure in the machine, and I simply say it’s better to release it catastrophically now with absolutely unspeakable amounts of suffering and destruction, rather than keep it building up and just blowing up the thing altogether.

    After all, chucking your civilization back to the bronze age for more than a century because your soft, oversensitive and stress threshold reducing idiocy made everyone in a totally neurotic anxious mentally ill mess incapable of maintaining civilization is the peak of retardation, and should be punished accordingly, as Anatoly says.

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @Svevlad

    Ha ha ha, beautiful. I am happy to be a brother with you on this. I definitely prefer people to grow and be happy. I mean, civilization has given me so many fun things to read and see. Nonetheless, all the damn issues you've mentioned are both annoying and dangerous. A new perspective, one possibly brought on by immense and inescapable horror and suffering might be a real improvement, and absolutely better than the world just dying!

    Nukes for every country that can make them, and one day, every person a plasma gun and flying saucer.

    Interesting point on the non-actionable manner of speaking. I definitely agree that the world, and internet especially, would be better if people were straightforward and honest in what they are saying and believing. I mean, part of our civilization's crippling issues is its continuous and blatant lying about its own desires and actions.

    Worthy punishment indeed. I think it's good Russia and China are trying to find a new way forward. Personally though, I think our only hope as a race is leaving the planet. Once we're on the frontier again, people will be exposed to all kinds of exciting Damocles Swords, they'll hardly have the chance to be neurotic, or more importantly, everyone can always choose to leave their presence for SOMEWHERE ELSE. Finally, every person will be able to be where they will prosper most, or at least, most want to be.

  184. @Yellowface Anon
    @AP


    Of course, the West is playing with fire in terms of its peculiar recent obsessions; it may just implode.
     
    Which is why the next technological leap will be our last one (the Singularity) or it will never happen, since the historical current is retreating.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    I doubt it. Singularities are just technological and social paradigm shifts. They happen every now and then, and usually result in a new system being in place. From hunter gatherer societies to slave-owning antique societies to feudalism and finally capitalism. There is never a “final” singularity, because it seems that everything works on a cyclical basis.

    Then of course, breaking the wheel is always possible. That doesn’t mean it will happen in the next “singularity moment”

  185. @Yellowface Anon
    @Vishnugupta

    Unlike nationalists like you or (ironical?) Indotriumphalists like Karlin, IQ 80 India isn't gonna be a hyperpower, unlike IQ 100 China or IQ 95 (but falling) US. You'll need generations of eugenics and educational improvement, or maybe some transhumanism as Karlin suggested.

    Your country is overinvesting in services that serve neocolonial interests instead of manufacturing where foreigners immediately benefit, but locals reap the gains in the long term too. Even Bangladesh does better in textiles and fabric than India. Same reason why the Philippines isn't converging with even Indonesia. Once you get your economics wrong there's no place for social or cultural development. (Have you actually read what Blinky Bill wrote?)

    Your best hope would be upper-middle income status by 2040, powerful but never matching up with China, if Modi ended up not executing the WEF's depopulation agenda and killing hundreds of millions.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    You’ll need generations of eugenics and educational improvement

    You underestimate the power of selection. India has so many people they can “grind down” the lowest intelligence tiers and not even feel it.

    They’re probably just waiting for the situation to crystalize for maximum efficiency. After this, expect a lot more “chemical spills” and “accidents” that somehow always lead to the absolute poorest becoming sterile.

    And this is very plausible, the Indian elites are notoriously disdainful of their genetically challenged brethren

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @Svevlad

    As per usual... The wealthiest Indian states have the lowest fertility (some are below replacement already) and the poorest have the highest...

  186. @Blinky Bill
    @AltanBakshi

    Perhaps.

    https://youtu.be/ImflksVh9fY?t=116

    https://youtu.be/zp5szs3AWCY?t=22

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/01/Presiden_Sukarno.jpg/800px-Presiden_Sukarno.jpg

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    • Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Blinky Bill

    If that is true of Vietnam, after the Yanks murdered four million and poisoned the land and gene pool for God knows how long, and the Philippines, which the US treated as a brothel for decades, then I'm rather shocked.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @AP

  187. @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%253A%252F%252Fs3-ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com%252Fpsh-ex-ftnikkei-3937bb4%252Fimages%252F_aliases%252Farticleimage%252F4%252F0%252F7%252F3%252F24423704-4-eng-GB%252F20200115-US-China-Survey-Hrz.png?source=nar-cms.png

    Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain

    If that is true of Vietnam, after the Yanks murdered four million and poisoned the land and gene pool for God knows how long, and the Philippines, which the US treated as a brothel for decades, then I’m rather shocked.

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @Mulga Mumblebrain

    "Online survey of about 1300 respondents in SEA." So nothing serious, especially if participants were English speakers and young.

    , @AP
    @Mulga Mumblebrain

    No reason to be shocked. Countries that border each other tend to be enemies, unless one is so dominant that being an enemy would be suicidal. Then the relationship becomes one of subservience. Alliances are good with more distant powers.

    Germany and Russia were allies until they swallowed Poland and bordered each other. Vietnam and Philippines are close to China. To the extent that they can count on distant American support in order to be viable against China, they will be anti-Chinese. But if they feel America wavering or stepping back they will accommodate to the hegemon that could destroy them. Ukraine which borders the West/NATO can afford to be anti-Russian in a way that Georgia and Azerbaijan cannot. The latter played its cards better.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sudden death

  188. @Blinky Bill
    Litmus test

    https://www.cfr.org/sites/default/files/image/2021/04/fblinkedin_huawei.png

    Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain, @Anatoly Karlin

    That simply illustrates how far behind the West will fall. It is good to see thugs shooting themselves in the head.

  189. @Yellowface Anon
    @Svevlad

    You could easily swamp Mongolia, actually easier than Kazakhstan since the population density is still even lower, but Korea was too populous to do that.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi

    Outer Mongolia has growing season of three months, hard to settle land like that, even Kazakhstan is a fertile paradise in a comparison.

  190. @Dmitry
    @AltanBakshi

    Borat is an excellent mix of parody of Caucasian people (Azeris/Armenians/Chechens), as well as parody of Central Asian people.

    Borat has a lot of accurate elements of Central Asian culture, including the bride kidnapping Pamela Anderson.

    Bridekidnapping is still common in Central Asia, but it is historically part of the Caucasian culture as well. So Borat could also live happily in Azerbaijan.

    People here claiming there is anything slavic in Borat, must show people have no experience with slavic people.

    Being very dark, hairy people, that have to shave their face every hour, keeping your wife in a cage, teaching that women and dogs are the same, etc. All Borat's jokes are the opposite of Slavic/Northern European culture, but they are accurate parody of elements of Caucasian and Central Asian culture.

    Borat's parody is even not very strong, compared to reality in some of Central Asia like Turkmenistan.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwq9p3R2TTA

    Replies: @Commentator Mike

    Borat’s parody is even not very strong, compared to reality in some of Central Asia like Turkmenistan.

    I think what that Turkmen strongman did is commendable and worthy of praise rather than mockery (that’s if you’re a dog lover as most Europeans are). Muslims absolutely hate dogs and consider them haram and second only to pigs on the list of animals they revile. So this Muslim putting a dog on a pedestal is really something – probably considered blasphemy and idolatry by most Muslims. All power to the Turkmen strongman!

    • Replies: @Daniel Chieh
    @Commentator Mike

    But dogs are wonderful creatures.

  191. @AP
    @AltanBakshi


    Sorry for being careless, but why isnt neutrality of third parties enough for the “Crink’s” victory?
     
    It might not be an option, they might be forced to choose to go along.

    Anyway Burma and Pakistan are already squarely in the Chinese camp. Turkey and Philippines, who will be in the future as important economically as countries like Spain and Italy are now, are not anymore loyal allies of the West.
     
    Well, that's the key. Either the Philippines and the rest of SE Asia see China as a greater threat and join the Anglo-EU Japanese to contain it, or they accept the role of junior partner to China. People of these countries often resent their Chinese minorities and may be wary of getting swallowed by the massive Chinese behemoth. I won't predict which will happen.

    Pakistan is kind of useless. But it's alliance with China contributes to Indian ill-will towards China.

    I forgot to add one thing about India. India can never be a good ally for USA, for she is too independent and large, and the West is not used to having equal partners, only vassals.
     
    It could be treated as the EU, as a mildly subservient junior partner with some independence, not completely subservient. Problems with Pakistan and China would suggest an alignment with the West.

    Also Indians are quite conscious about their colonial past.
     
    Americans not the Brits would manage this relationship.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @Coconuts

    Americans not the Brits would manage this relationship.

    The way in which demographic change is developing in the UK, British of Indian descent will probably be involved with managing these relationships. Young British Indians are already concentrated in the upper levels of society, you should see more and more reaching senior levels in politics (there are already some at the highest level).

    Canada and the US also appear to be open to immigration from India, and it is developing in a smaller way within other Western allied countries (Poland), that may be expanded over time.

    Looking for some rational purpose behind the import of US anti-racist ideology that you see in the UK, facilitating and smoothing this demographic change and the gradual merging of elites would be a clear one.

    • Agree: AP
  192. @Vishnugupta
    @Blinky Bill

    I don't think it has been nailed shut..incidentally China followed the classic east Asian model pioneered by Meiji Japan. In its take off phase it closely aligned with the UK then after it developed and could build its own arms from raw materials in Japan...Given how greviously the Anglos suffered in terms of casualties fighting an industrialized Japan you thought they would be wary of helping any politically independent East Asian country industrialize especially one 10 times the size of Japan but no..And this is the 1970s when you had people like Henry Kissinger running the show..what makes you think today's LGBT rights champions see what people like Kissinger could not?

    Plus paradoxically the impression of Indians being incompetent and servile lessens the threat perception..seriously who in any western country sees India as a future super power?That is good.

    In the 1960s we got nuke tech from US and Canada for free because no one thought we would have the gall to build nukes with technology donated by them under the atoms for peace program ..well in 1974 we did..


    This decade is crucial we play our cards right by 2030 we will be well on our way..

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @sudden death

    Well, one wishes Indians well, but the caste system, residual servility to the West (see Malla), Hindutva fascism, the influence of Overseas Indians, with first loyalties to the West and anthropogenic climate destabilisation all make it unlikely that India will follow China’s path.

  193. @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Blinky Bill

    If that is true of Vietnam, after the Yanks murdered four million and poisoned the land and gene pool for God knows how long, and the Philippines, which the US treated as a brothel for decades, then I'm rather shocked.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @AP

    “Online survey of about 1300 respondents in SEA.” So nothing serious, especially if participants were English speakers and young.

  194. @Tom Marvolo Riddle
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Population is not the be all end all. Africa has 1.2 billion, would you want to live there? Nigeria alone has 220 mil or some such, are they strong? Compared to Russia who only has 140 mil or Germany with 80 mil? Where I live now in socal, a gallon of milk costs $5, and avg. rent is about 2k a month. In "poor" Idaho where I lived for a time, the salary is 2/3 of the socal salary milk costs 2.50 and you can get a nice apt for 1k. PPP is a much better indicator of livability than GDP is. GDP is only extant because of financial inertia and reserve currency status. Socal is a far worse place to live than Boise. I've lived in both and tens of thousands of Californians are fleeing to this "poor" city. Sadly, ruining it as well. Which is a shame because it is or perhaps was, quite nice.

    There are more factors at play in how nice a place is to live in or how powerful a country is than mere numbers. You have to take a holistic view in your assessments. The US dept. of justice threatens US credit rating agencies when they downgrade the gov'ts rating for one example of how some stats are flawed/manipulated.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    I agree that the US would likely be a more pleasant place to live with just 200 million people. I would also have supported a government that would have preserved this.

    My point was only that this would be less good for US state institutional power, around the globe; so I don’t find it surprising that those state institutions took a different path.

  195. @Boomthorkell
    @Triteleia Laxa

    One way to understand it is to realize that, through worse suffering, maybe people overall will suffer less.

    If every is a Hell that leaves even the victor unhappy and ruined, maybe there will be fewer wars. At the very least, no one can act smug about it.

    Svevlad is just taking it to the next reasonable level of unreasonable violence and suffering.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad, @Triteleia Laxa

    Are you sure you don’t just want to watch the world burn?

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Ha ha, I had a student once tell me "Mr. -----, don't you just want to see the world burn sometimes?"

    I told her that in mes of chaos, sometimes you're the 12-year old who becomes Shah, but mostly you're the peasant who watches raiders kill your father, rape your mother, and draft your brother, so keep that in mind.

    Lol, so, I'm flexible, but ultimately I enjoy the things produced by it and the people in it too much to want that.

    Np, I'm just obsessed with justice and principles enough that at times I prefer honest extermination to the extended suffering and corruption brought about by the formless manthings who serve their equally formless masters.

    Only at times though.

    Nonetheless, my own country and peoples would have been blessed to have only had a bloody, disastrous, awful, brutal conflict that ravaged their homes and bodies, and cleansed their souls, rather than the sick corruption and waste and terror brought about by its endless "conflicts." If our wars could only ever be remembered as wars of cities reduced to ash and ruined lives on both sides, CNN, Fox and the rest would have a lot harder time convincing the survivors about how important it is a ship is sent to patrol the South China Sea.

    Then again...sometimes exterminatus and firestorms are charming. One should never wish for evil upon anyone else, though.

    , @Daniel Chieh
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Fire can be very pretty.

  196. @sudden death
    Reading about all this supposed RF-China lovefest obviously makes it clear that many people do not like to think about or even are unable to grasp longer term horizons, like somebody in 1870-80's could be arguing that strong united and industrially expanding Germany is beneficial to RI, because Bismark has favourable views towards Russians, therefore Britain is the foe.

    Replies: @216, @Korenchkin, @Blinky Bill

    • Replies: @sudden death
    @Blinky Bill

    Well, thanx for confirmation of my point by fixation to current personalities and day to day matters ;)

    Wonder if Imperial Germany even bothered officially/publicly to declare RE as the enemy before going (timeframe roughly around 1890-1912) to the ultimate confrontations?

  197. @AP
    Ultimately if it becomes China-Russia-Iran-NK-Iran vs. everyone else, the former lose. CRINK would have to bring some other powers - such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world - on board to really become competitive. I'm not predicting whether or not it can be done, but if it isn't done, the West determines the world's fate. The best CRINK can hope for is voluntary self-destruction.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Barbarossa, @Felix Keverich, @AltanBakshi, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Blinky Bill, @Dreadilk, @Rattus Norwegius

    Holy Mother replies. I will add that axis will never be VS everybody else. It is guaranteed large majority will be neutral and western camp is more likely to fracture from cost of conflict.

  198. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Felix Keverich


    You won’t understand anything about American culture and politics until you take into account overwhelming power of Jewry in that country. American “Jewish community” hails from the former Russian empire, and these people convinced themselves that they’ve been wronged by Russia. It’s a cornerstone of their tribal identity so to speak, and that means they are going to use the USA to exact revenge.
     
    Not only is this never how foreign policy works, but I see no reason to believe a single part of it.

    Most Jews I meet, really like Russian culture, for ancestral reasons. They also have much more reason to dislike Germany, but the US gets on fine with Germany.

    As I said, there is no reason to believe any part of your "explanation". Pure projection from you as an individual, I suspect.

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @Anatoly Karlin, @Felix Keverich, @Radicalcenter, @Felix Keverich

    “Emotional” Jews in positions of power in Washington want to fuck with Russia with no regard for the consequences.

    Inside the administration, the debate on Russia policy has been “intense” with “strong feelings on different sides,” said a U.S. official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters.

    Last month’s decision to withhold sanctions against the company and CEO behind the nearly completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline was particularly divisive. Critics of the pipeline, which would transport natural gas from Russia to Germany, view its imminent completion and operation as a major geopolitical coup for the Kremlin.

    The State Department, in a position backed by Secretary of State (((Antony Blinken))), his deputy (((Wendy Sherman))) and Undersecretary of State (((Victoria Nuland))), recommended a raft of U.S. sanctions intended to block the pipeline, without waivers for the company or chief executive, said officials familiar with the decision.

    Biden, backed by top aides on the National Security Council, disagreed, arguing that the move would inflame relations with Germany, a key ally that views attempts to block the pipeline as a violation of its sovereignty.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/biden-putin-summit/2021/06/15/19657e2c-cd44-11eb-9b7e-e06f6cfdece8_story.html?itid=lk_inline_manual_15

  199. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Felix has a Jew obsession, but this isn't really accurate IMO either: https://www.unz.com/anepigone/nobody-does-russophobia-like-jews-do/

    https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/russia.png

    There are considerable numbers of "Russophile" or Russia-neutral Jews (almost entirely from a leftist or "anti-imperialist" perspective, people like Greenwald and Blumenthal and the late Stephen Cohen), and the Jewish Lobby in the US is understandably much more obsessed with Iran. But the average American Jew has neoliberal, normie type views that you see in places like /r/politics, highly hostile to Russia.

    Replies: @AP, @Blinky Bill

    American-born Jews are often descended from people who left the Russian Empire before the Revolution. For them, Russia = Cossacks and Pogroms (and those whose ancestors left Ukraine see Ukraine as Russia for such purposes). These guys are very left-wing and susceptible to the fake claim of Trump being a Russian tool.

    Recent Jewish immigrants tend to support Russian culture but hate the late-stage USSR which they viewed as antisemitic. They consider ex-KGB man Putin to be a product of the Soviet system that they despise and are thus politically anti-Russian. But they are also right wing and support Trump, whom they correctly identify as not being in Putin’s pocket.

    So overall, American Jews are opposed to the Russian state.

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    I don't disagree with any of that.

    The one thing I would add is that you also have a subsection of hard leftists who hate the Russian Empire (pogroms, etc.) but like the USSR and, while not loving Putin, do oppose Russophobia. Someone like Yasha Levine would be an example.

    , @Beckow
    @AP


    ...So overall, American Jews are opposed to the Russian state.
     
    One additional group are American Jews who went back in the 90's to get rich of Russia. They knew the language, had connections, it was a free-for-all. Some made money, but many more wanted to. In a weird coitus-interruptus they were unceremoniously sent home by Putin. There are few more vengeful people than wanna-be rich back in their dull American office jobs. The wealth was so close, so shiny, and then Putin ruined it.

    Some wrote books, some went into politics, many still hate with a passion that would burn a city. Many young activists are from families who experienced this. They felt entitled to the riches. You can see their disappointment in their obsession with Putin as "thief", "gangster", "richest man in the world" - it is their subconscious anger coming out. He took it from them, they will never forgive him, and neither will their offspring.

    Replies: @Dreadilk

  200. AP says:
    @AltanBakshi
    @AP


    Pakistan is kind of useless. But it’s alliance with China contributes to Indian ill-will towards China.
     
    Keeping India contained to subcontinent and land connection to Iran are not useless.

    It could be treated as the EU, as a mildly subservient junior partner with some independence, not completely subservient. Problems with Pakistan and China would suggest an alignment with the West.
     
    Indian elites are very conscious about the sovereignty of their country, just like Putin's Russia.

    Replies: @AP

    Pakistan is kind of useless. But it’s alliance with China contributes to Indian ill-will towards China.

    Keeping India contained to subcontinent and land connection to Iran are not useless.

    Pakistan would be useful for China, if China were in conflict with Russia and if Iran were on China’s side. In this case yes, Pakistan would be a link to Iran. It would also be useful in conflict with Russia over influence in Central Asia.

    But since China and Russia are friends, China can access Iran through Central Asia. It does not need Pakistan for that.

    It could be treated as the EU, as a mildly subservient junior partner with some independence, not completely subservient. Problems with Pakistan and China would suggest an alignment with the West.

    Indian elites are very conscious about the sovereignty of their country, just like Putin’s Russia.

    EU isn’t exactly a non-sovereign puppet of the USA. As someone else noted, Indians have entered the Western elites. I’m not going to predict which way SE Asia and Turkey go, but 60/40 odds that India joins the West.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @AP

    "Pakistan would be useful for China, if China were in conflict with Russia and if Iran were on China’s side. In this case yes, Pakistan would be a link to Iran. It would also be useful in conflict with Russia over influence in Central Asia.

    But since China and Russia are friends, China can access Iran through Central Asia. It does not need Pakistan for that."

    You misjudge the situation. The facts on the ground are that Pakistan and Iran are drawing closer together much to the chagrin of Saudi Arabia - who used to view Pakistan as a vassal. The reason for this is China and Russia are both encouraging them to do so - and they both realize regional integration benefits them both.

    , @Blinky Bill
    @AP

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMOK4-IWoAAjVg3.jpg

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EycPUaOWYAIrPfF.jpg

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBLN__YUEAAZEVe.jpg

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @AltanBakshi

  201. @Blinky Bill
    @sudden death

    https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1404744454582325254?s=20

    Replies: @sudden death

    Well, thanx for confirmation of my point by fixation to current personalities and day to day matters 😉

    Wonder if Imperial Germany even bothered officially/publicly to declare RE as the enemy before going (timeframe roughly around 1890-1912) to the ultimate confrontations?

  202. AP says:
    @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Blinky Bill

    If that is true of Vietnam, after the Yanks murdered four million and poisoned the land and gene pool for God knows how long, and the Philippines, which the US treated as a brothel for decades, then I'm rather shocked.

    Replies: @AltanBakshi, @AP

    No reason to be shocked. Countries that border each other tend to be enemies, unless one is so dominant that being an enemy would be suicidal. Then the relationship becomes one of subservience. Alliances are good with more distant powers.

    Germany and Russia were allies until they swallowed Poland and bordered each other. Vietnam and Philippines are close to China. To the extent that they can count on distant American support in order to be viable against China, they will be anti-Chinese. But if they feel America wavering or stepping back they will accommodate to the hegemon that could destroy them. Ukraine which borders the West/NATO can afford to be anti-Russian in a way that Georgia and Azerbaijan cannot. The latter played its cards better.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @AP


    The latter played its cards better.
     
    How so?

    Replies: @AP

    , @sudden death
    @AP


    Countries that border each other tend to be enemies, unless one is so dominant that being an enemy would be suicidal. Then the relationship becomes one of subservience. Alliances are good with more distant powers.
     
    This is example of another real life option for RF - benevolent satelitism, instead of future conflict with China. Something like GB situation relative to US post WWII, when the latter finally discarded any isolationism, or even Canada-US situation, given geographical proximity.

    GB with nuclear weapons may even had some illusions about still being some sovereign world power pole, but those were quickly shattered when both US and USSR supported Egypt in 1956 Suez crisis against UK&France,which had to back off. For some time RF also will entertain such daydreams until similar moment happens, e.g. it could try to chew off Northern Kazakstan, but China would be interested not to let anybody even an inch closer to Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline, going through KZ, so it may be a likely suitable occasion when two belligerent superpowers would have "a moment of understanding", despite it being directed against the smaller ally.

  203. @AP
    @Mulga Mumblebrain

    No reason to be shocked. Countries that border each other tend to be enemies, unless one is so dominant that being an enemy would be suicidal. Then the relationship becomes one of subservience. Alliances are good with more distant powers.

    Germany and Russia were allies until they swallowed Poland and bordered each other. Vietnam and Philippines are close to China. To the extent that they can count on distant American support in order to be viable against China, they will be anti-Chinese. But if they feel America wavering or stepping back they will accommodate to the hegemon that could destroy them. Ukraine which borders the West/NATO can afford to be anti-Russian in a way that Georgia and Azerbaijan cannot. The latter played its cards better.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sudden death

    The latter played its cards better.

    How so?

    • Replies: @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Azerbaijan did not antagonise Russia while quietly also cultivating ties with the USA, Turkey and Israel. It was then able to crush Armenia at a time when Armenia forgot where it was and chose the USA over Russia.

    Georgia in contrast chose to antagonize Russia.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  204. @RadicalCenter
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Didn’t get the gist of your comment.

    As part of the US government’s needless belligerence, it has wrongly tried to harm the Russian people with economic sanctions. Is that what the US gov is doing that prevents Russians from cutting the population gap?

    And how could Russia cut the population gap with China that much in two years, with or without US interference?

    Thanks —

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    If there was no US interference, it is almost certain that Belarus would be united with Russia by now, and a good chance that Ukraine, or Eastern Ukraine at any rate, would be so likewise or at least in a close association agreement.

    A Russia with effectively 200M people instead of 150M would not be vastly more powerful, but it would significantly improve its economies of scale.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Hopefully this second round of protests and foreign interference in Belarus accelerates this process of unification.

    , @Aedib
    @Anatoly Karlin

    I don’t see Putler on hurry to take Belarus. On the contrary, he seems to be taking the other way.

  205. @Blinky Bill
    @Vishnugupta

    Comment 32


    One thing looks certain, at least from an American point of view, the venture to open things up and help nurture India back in the 20’s has blossomed into America’s worst nightmare. The naivety of US policymakers over time is palpable. How US policymakers watched India’s meteoric rise over time without ever contemplating that at onetime in the future it would poise itself to become the US’ main rival in world affairs is tragic. That there never seemed to be a ‘plan B” with India shows how shortsighted American diplomacy is, favoring short term profit over long term containment. It looks like a rocky road is ahead for everybody involved.
     
    I understand it's in the interest of India to align with the US/West, but has the US learned from its past mistakes with building up China and aiding the Soviet Union. My guess is yes, the Americans will ensure the Indians are prevented from following the Chinese path of development. My question instead is how much time will pass before the Indians realise this door has been nailed shut by the West.

    My answer, a long time.

    Replies: @Vishnugupta, @AP, @Anatoly Karlin

    My guess is yes, the Americans will ensure the Indians are prevented from following the Chinese path of development.

    Not sure how they would be in a position to. There’s some conspiracy theories that, say, the Americans choked off Japan’s aerospace industry, but even so, there’s a difference between a 127M country and a 1.4B one. One that is strategically autonomous, having good relations with Russia, being the informal leader of the non-aligned bloc, etc.

    • Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Indian compradores and Overseas Indian dual loyalists will ensure that India operates as if still under English rule. Malla types will proliferate and a Chinese style autarchic approach when attacked, and utilitarian national development in all spheres at other times, won't develop. Better a rich compradore in a global neo-liberal pathocracy than enlightened self-interest. Indian elites hate China not just for its vastly greater achievements, but for its cultural integrity and authenticity. Subservience to the West will empower elites castes and the Hindutva fascists, too.

  206. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin


    Fall behind in what sense? Economic power? Technology? Military strength?
     
    Any of these. Eurasia is already significantly poorer than Anglo world + EU + Japan; if India joins the latter as it becomes wealthier, Eurasia will also be significantly outnumbered. More people who are wealthier are more likely to come up with more technological advancement; theft will reduce the lag but it will still be there.

    Technological espionage is much easier today than it was half a century ago, innovations diffuse much more rapidly, and the rate of technological chance itself has fallen on most metrics so any lingering gaps (should they exist) will be less critical.
     
    The next technological leap we don't know about would likely occur in non-Eurasia; more people, wealth, and tradition of innovation.

    Of course, the West is playing with fire in terms of its peculiar recent obsessions; it may just implode.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Anatoly Karlin

    The only two obvious “game-changing” technological leaps are IMO just two candidates – AGI, and unraveling the genetic basis of human intelligence (and then applying it on a large scale).

    I agree that if AGI is developed, at this rate it will happen in the West, probably America, as it dominates AI research. Though who knows whom AGI will serve, if anyone.

    If “biosingularity”, India is funnily enough perhaps the best “dark horse” candidate: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/china-torpedoes-biosingularity-bid/

    • Agree: AP
    • Replies: @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin

    If America stays woke it probably goes down in a very ridiculous way. I suspect this is a brief and destructive fad though, like Prohibition.

    But genetically enhanced intelligence can be sold as a way of mitigating the racial IQ gap. Hypocrisy and reversal of positions are nothing strange. If a way to biologically eliminate the IQ gap were to be discovered, suddenly Jensen would be presented in a different light and genetic IQ enhancement would be rigorously pursued in the name of justice. There would be as many 300 IQ blacks as 300 IQ whites.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Matra

  207. @Blinky Bill
    Litmus test

    https://www.cfr.org/sites/default/files/image/2021/04/fblinkedin_huawei.png

    Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain, @Anatoly Karlin

    East-Central Europe bans Huawei because their main goal in life is to please America. India bans it because it has its own legitimate natsec reasons to do so.

    • Agree: Vishnugupta
    • Replies: @utu
    @Anatoly Karlin

    "East-Central Europe bans Huawei because their main goal in life is to please America. " - This is probably correct because we must reject that they were actually influenced by the anti-5G Putin propaganda.


    Foreign disinformation: the plot to kill 5G (May 22, 2019)
    https://www.digitalcenter.org/columns/plot-to-kill-5g/

    Russia compensates for its lack of real political power by using disinformation (particularly digitally) to exploit weaknesses in open societies. Putin’s goal is to weaken democracy — not through direct confrontation, but rather by causing internal division, lack of faith in social and political institutions, and by spreading lies and false information. This multifaceted campaign throws doubt on science and facts. It causes citizens to distrust news media, political leaders, common sense and each other.

    5G is an essential technology that will move the digital revolution into the next phase. Those countries that move quickly into 5G will gain an important advantage over those that lag behind.

    Even with Putin’s support, Russia is clearly, at best, in the second ranks of 5G development, far behind the U.S., China and South Korea.

    The easiest way for Russia to level the playing field with 5G is to cripple its deployment outside Russia. That is where RT comes in. Their report detailing the massive dangers of the effects of 5G technology was titled, “A Dangerous Experiment on Humanity.” Not even trying to be subtle or consider scientific evidence, RT — looking at 5G concerns — reported, “There is just a small one. It might kill you.”
     
    And then in 2020

    Anti-vaxxers and Russia behind viral 5G COVID conspiracy theory (April 2020)
    https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2020/04/anti-vaxxers-and-russia-behind-viral-5g-covid-conspiracy-theory/
     

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Mulga Mumblebrain

    , @Vishnugupta
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Natsec plus the fact that Indian customers has the lowest data costs in the world and Indian telecom companies are building their 5G networks using the much more cost effective Open RAN architecture.

    https://www.lightreading.com/looking-ahead-in-india-5g-open-ran-and-fiberization/d/d-id/766632

    Plus we have our domestic telecom equipment companies that we would like to see scale up and become our own Huawei in 10-15 years.

    https://www.tejasnetworks.com/

    Replies: @Boomthorkell, @Triteleia Laxa

    , @Felix Keverich
    @Anatoly Karlin

    It strikes me as an equivalent of Ukrainian ban on Russian social networks, ostensibly motivated by similar "natsec reasons". This is what petty, insecure countries do.

    , @Dmitry
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Trump was successful in stopping Huawei's 5G ambitions, at cost to his own allies.

    But note that the 5G consumption ban, hardly stops investments of Chinese companies like Huawei in the West, and they will likely soon be able to get chips again.


    Huawei to Build an Optoelectronics RnD and Manufacturing Centre in Cambridge

    Huawei will invest £1 billion in the first phase of the project in Cambridge, which includes construction of 50,000 square meters of facilities across nine acres of land and will directly create around 400 local jobs. Once fully operational, it will become the international headquarters of Huawei's optoelectronics business...

    The first phase of the project will focus on the research, development, and manufacturing of optical devices and modules, an integrated model that promises to bring innovation faster to market. Optoelectronics is a key technology used in fibre optic communication systems and this investment aims to bring the best of such technology to data centres and network infrastructure around the world.
     

    https://www.huawei.com/uk/news/uk/2020/huawei%20to%20build%20an%20optoelectronics%20rnd%20and%20manufacturing%20centre%20in%20cambridge

    And Huawei is still going to receive licenses to use British chips, as there was loophole in the export policy:


    British firm Arm says new chip tech could be licensed to Huawei, potentially easing the telecoms giant’s supply chain woes

    Arm said its latest tech upgrade is not subject to US export regulations, following a comprehensive review

    The British firm sells processor designs and licenses an instruction set – code that controls semiconductors – to companies like Huawei and Apple.

    Semiconductor design company Arm expects its latest v9 architecture to be potentially licensed to Huawei Technologies Co, as the latest chip innovation is of British origin and not subject to US export regulations.

    That would be a welcome development for Huawei, whose advanced chips are designed by semiconductor unit HiSilicon, amid its struggles to cope with tightened US trade sanctions that have restricted its access to sophisticated chips of American origin.

    The v9 architecture, which was launched by Arm on Tuesday in the UK, could be licensed to Huawei’s HiSilicon unit because it is not covered by US regulations, an Arm spokeswoman said on the sidelines of the Beijing event on Wednesday...

    That development could provide a much-needed respite for Huawei, which was put on Washington’s trade blacklist in 2019. The company has struggled under the US sanction, which has restricted its ability to buy hardware, software and services from American suppliers without approval from Washington.
     

    https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3127782/british-chip-design-firm-arm-takes-aim-intel-biggest-tech-overhaul

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  208. @Felix Keverich
    @Vishnugupta

    The moment India finds itself locked in a conflict with China, it will lose all its bargaining power, and will have to take any terms the West is offering. To continue my Ukraine analogy, their "association agreement" with the EU turned out not at all what they expected and wanted.

    And India that is not in conflict with China is kinda useless to the West, so expect them to dangle this carrot in your face until you fall into their trap, at which point you will discover, that fighting Chinese hordes has always been your destiny, and praise the Holy Javelins. lol

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin

    India has 1.4B people, which is a bit more than 35M. Although desirable, its economies of scale make Western ties ultimately optional. (Same is true wrt China).

  209. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin

    American-born Jews are often descended from people who left the Russian Empire before the Revolution. For them, Russia = Cossacks and Pogroms (and those whose ancestors left Ukraine see Ukraine as Russia for such purposes). These guys are very left-wing and susceptible to the fake claim of Trump being a Russian tool.

    Recent Jewish immigrants tend to support Russian culture but hate the late-stage USSR which they viewed as antisemitic. They consider ex-KGB man Putin to be a product of the Soviet system that they despise and are thus politically anti-Russian. But they are also right wing and support Trump, whom they correctly identify as not being in Putin's pocket.

    So overall, American Jews are opposed to the Russian state.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Beckow

    I don’t disagree with any of that.

    The one thing I would add is that you also have a subsection of hard leftists who hate the Russian Empire (pogroms, etc.) but like the USSR and, while not loving Putin, do oppose Russophobia. Someone like Yasha Levine would be an example.

    • Agree: AP
  210. AP says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    The only two obvious "game-changing" technological leaps are IMO just two candidates - AGI, and unraveling the genetic basis of human intelligence (and then applying it on a large scale).

    I agree that if AGI is developed, at this rate it will happen in the West, probably America, as it dominates AI research. Though who knows whom AGI will serve, if anyone.

    If "biosingularity", India is funnily enough perhaps the best "dark horse" candidate: https://www.unz.com/akarlin/china-torpedoes-biosingularity-bid/

    Replies: @AP

    If America stays woke it probably goes down in a very ridiculous way. I suspect this is a brief and destructive fad though, like Prohibition.

    But genetically enhanced intelligence can be sold as a way of mitigating the racial IQ gap. Hypocrisy and reversal of positions are nothing strange. If a way to biologically eliminate the IQ gap were to be discovered, suddenly Jensen would be presented in a different light and genetic IQ enhancement would be rigorously pursued in the name of justice. There would be as many 300 IQ blacks as 300 IQ whites.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @AP

    Imagine 300 IQ blacks tho. Imagine all of them like that.

    The result would probably make Prussia look like a hippie commune. Similar applies to LatAm and various Melanesians/Oceanians.

    The interesting ones would be the Khoisan and the Australian Aboriginals, but both are basically extinct

    Replies: @DNS

    , @Matra
    @AP

    If America stays woke it probably goes down in a very ridiculous way. I suspect this is a brief and destructive fad though, like Prohibition.

    Wokeness is just political correctness under a name that its younger adherents prefer. We've been hearing about it being a fad that's nothing to worry about since the late 1980s, but instead of going away like Prohibition, it's evolving & spreading just as predicted by the original critics of PC. The only thing that could make resistance to wokeness more successful than it was to PC culture over the last 30 years is if it actually starts to impact the elites themselves - which, I suppose, is possible if it moves beyond cost-free virtue-signalling.

  211. @Mr. Hack
    @AP


    The latter played its cards better.
     
    How so?

    Replies: @AP

    Azerbaijan did not antagonise Russia while quietly also cultivating ties with the USA, Turkey and Israel. It was then able to crush Armenia at a time when Armenia forgot where it was and chose the USA over Russia.

    Georgia in contrast chose to antagonize Russia.

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @AP

    I think that when you boil it all down, the real source of all perceived "antagonism" towards Russia from Ukraine was when a majority of its citizens opted for a European orientation for their country, rather than for Putin sponsored Eurasian projects. Are you suggesting that the majority of Ukrainians made a wrong choice?

    Replies: @AP

  212. utu says:
    @Anatoly Karlin
    @Blinky Bill

    East-Central Europe bans Huawei because their main goal in life is to please America. India bans it because it has its own legitimate natsec reasons to do so.

    Replies: @utu, @Vishnugupta, @Felix Keverich, @Dmitry

    “East-Central Europe bans Huawei because their main goal in life is to please America. ” – This is probably correct because we must reject that they were actually influenced by the anti-5G Putin propaganda.

    Foreign disinformation: the plot to kill 5G (May 22, 2019)
    https://www.digitalcenter.org/columns/plot-to-kill-5g/

    Russia compensates for its lack of real political power by using disinformation (particularly digitally) to exploit weaknesses in open societies. Putin’s goal is to weaken democracy — not through direct confrontation, but rather by causing internal division, lack of faith in social and political institutions, and by spreading lies and false information. This multifaceted campaign throws doubt on science and facts. It causes citizens to distrust news media, political leaders, common sense and each other.

    5G is an essential technology that will move the digital revolution into the next phase. Those countries that move quickly into 5G will gain an important advantage over those that lag behind.

    Even with Putin’s support, Russia is clearly, at best, in the second ranks of 5G development, far behind the U.S., China and South Korea.

    The easiest way for Russia to level the playing field with 5G is to cripple its deployment outside Russia. That is where RT comes in. Their report detailing the massive dangers of the effects of 5G technology was titled, “A Dangerous Experiment on Humanity.” Not even trying to be subtle or consider scientific evidence, RT — looking at 5G concerns — reported, “There is just a small one. It might kill you.”

    And then in 2020

    Anti-vaxxers and Russia behind viral 5G COVID conspiracy theory (April 2020)
    https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2020/04/anti-vaxxers-and-russia-behind-viral-5g-covid-conspiracy-theory/

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @utu

    So ECE banning Huawei was a gift to Putin?

    https://twitter.com/DanielLarison/status/1404829611695947780

    Replies: @utu

    , @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @utu

    The proposition that the Western capitalist oligarchies, with their highly concentrated media ownership, savage Internet censorship and 'de-platforming', sham politics and total control of all the levers of power by a tiny elite, disproportionately Judaic, particularly in finance, are 'open societies' is as ludicrous as it is nauseating.

  213. @AP
    @Mulga Mumblebrain

    No reason to be shocked. Countries that border each other tend to be enemies, unless one is so dominant that being an enemy would be suicidal. Then the relationship becomes one of subservience. Alliances are good with more distant powers.

    Germany and Russia were allies until they swallowed Poland and bordered each other. Vietnam and Philippines are close to China. To the extent that they can count on distant American support in order to be viable against China, they will be anti-Chinese. But if they feel America wavering or stepping back they will accommodate to the hegemon that could destroy them. Ukraine which borders the West/NATO can afford to be anti-Russian in a way that Georgia and Azerbaijan cannot. The latter played its cards better.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @sudden death

    Countries that border each other tend to be enemies, unless one is so dominant that being an enemy would be suicidal. Then the relationship becomes one of subservience. Alliances are good with more distant powers.

    This is example of another real life option for RF – benevolent satelitism, instead of future conflict with China. Something like GB situation relative to US post WWII, when the latter finally discarded any isolationism, or even Canada-US situation, given geographical proximity.

    GB with nuclear weapons may even had some illusions about still being some sovereign world power pole, but those were quickly shattered when both US and USSR supported Egypt in 1956 Suez crisis against UK&France,which had to back off. For some time RF also will entertain such daydreams until similar moment happens, e.g. it could try to chew off Northern Kazakstan, but China would be interested not to let anybody even an inch closer to Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline, going through KZ, so it may be a likely suitable occasion when two belligerent superpowers would have “a moment of understanding”, despite it being directed against the smaller ally.

  214. @Vishnugupta
    @Felix Keverich

    1.India is not Ukraine.We have no delusions of being accepted as Westerners or anything else we are not.Our politicians corrupt as they are won't sell the country for money because our own private sector provides many orders of magnitude more funds than any western subversion initiative can provide.Our private sector is generally not recently minted oligarchs running extractive industries but established families running large fortune 500/1000 companies doing companies like Reliance Industries,Tata,AV Birla etc.They are as likely to betray India like Krupp or Siemens were likely to betray Germany.

    2. We already export over USD 500 billions worth of manufactured goods and services which is growing. So we are not starting from scratch.India already exports over USD 50 billion in manufactured goods to Europe. Engineering Goods ,Pharmaceuticals and Gems and Jewelry primarily.

    Negotiations for the India EU FTA was restarted at the EU's request and the India EU summit at Portugal this year was also the EU's idea.

    What is on the cards will be clearer in a year.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …India is not Ukraine.We have no delusions of being accepted as Westerners or anything else we are not.

    True, delusions lead to tears. All recently minted oligarchs were minted with Western support – they wouldn’t be oligarchs for long if they don’t do what they are told. That is not the case w Tata, Birla etc… it is almost universally the case in Ukraine and used to be in Russia. Compradors are literally the bought people, they are bought for a reason.

    Countries that have better universal access around the world and loyal (preferably native) business class will do better in the future. US-EU-Japan are slowly closing off, others are opening up. EU is fundamentally not competitive due to its lack of resources and better living standards. EU has a choice: protect its markets or slowly go down. Personally, I am in favor of closing off access to EU and preserving the lifestyle – I don’t put much value on productivity, trinkets, efficiency and similar nonsense. Others see it differently, this will be a bloody few decades of transition.

    There will not be a technology miracle salvation for the West – that is an illusion (not the only one that AP lives by). The people are not who they used to be and there is no demand for a new miracle. Why would the elites need one?

    • Agree: Vishnugupta
    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    @Beckow

    Your continent your choice.Though I am afraid there are already too many Muslims and crazy leftists in core EU countries for your preferred solution being seriously considered.

    EU countries for all their inherent strengths and past achievements seem to be in a state of long term relative decline which probably will last for at least a generation.

    Replies: @Beckow

  215. @utu
    @Anatoly Karlin

    "East-Central Europe bans Huawei because their main goal in life is to please America. " - This is probably correct because we must reject that they were actually influenced by the anti-5G Putin propaganda.


    Foreign disinformation: the plot to kill 5G (May 22, 2019)
    https://www.digitalcenter.org/columns/plot-to-kill-5g/

    Russia compensates for its lack of real political power by using disinformation (particularly digitally) to exploit weaknesses in open societies. Putin’s goal is to weaken democracy — not through direct confrontation, but rather by causing internal division, lack of faith in social and political institutions, and by spreading lies and false information. This multifaceted campaign throws doubt on science and facts. It causes citizens to distrust news media, political leaders, common sense and each other.

    5G is an essential technology that will move the digital revolution into the next phase. Those countries that move quickly into 5G will gain an important advantage over those that lag behind.

    Even with Putin’s support, Russia is clearly, at best, in the second ranks of 5G development, far behind the U.S., China and South Korea.

    The easiest way for Russia to level the playing field with 5G is to cripple its deployment outside Russia. That is where RT comes in. Their report detailing the massive dangers of the effects of 5G technology was titled, “A Dangerous Experiment on Humanity.” Not even trying to be subtle or consider scientific evidence, RT — looking at 5G concerns — reported, “There is just a small one. It might kill you.”
     
    And then in 2020

    Anti-vaxxers and Russia behind viral 5G COVID conspiracy theory (April 2020)
    https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2020/04/anti-vaxxers-and-russia-behind-viral-5g-covid-conspiracy-theory/
     

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Mulga Mumblebrain

    So ECE banning Huawei was a gift to Putin?

    • Replies: @utu
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Teenage girls will be eternally grateful to you for endorsing and legitimizing snarking which is their weapon of choice in argumentation.

    Replies: @Beckow

  216. @Blinky Bill
    @Radicalcenter


    What would stop china from readily moving millions of families to the once-Russia Far East from provinces that do not border Russia, if Russia collapses?
     
    The same thing that prevents China from readily moving millions of families to their own North Eastern provinces right now, hence their rapid depopulation.

    Replies: @Radicalcenter

    The difference is, China isn’t competing for control of the provinces they already have controlled and populated for centuries. They don’t need to move people there to take over new territory.

    By contrast, they will need to move people to the Russian Far East to effect and consolidate control over that new territory. I don’t see what would prevent them from doing so when they conclude that the circumstances are right.

    Also, let’s compare the population of those “depopulating” Chinese provinces in the Northeast with the population of the also-depopulating Russian Far East Federal District: 100 million to 7 million. As a bonus, possibly as many as a million of those seven million people are Chinese.

    Already over a decade ago, nearly 100,000 Chinese migrants were entering the Russian Far East each year. Please see https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/04/17/putin-warns-all-illegal-chinese-immigrants-living-in-its-far-east-to-leave-or-get-punished/

    This next article describes the Chinese practice of opening businesses in Russia and hiring only or almost only Chinese people, not Slavs or other peoples of the RF. It predicts that by 2050 — only 29 years from now — Chinese will be the second largest ethnicity in the RF after Russian (surpassing the Tatars):
    euromaidanpress.com/2016/10/28/chinese-to-becoming-second-largest-ethnicity-in-russia-moscow-demographer-says/

    China is already using steady settlement — some illegal under Russian law — to build a stronger physical, demographic, economic, and cultural foothold in Russia’s Far East. China would like to have that territory, for its natural resources and as a buffer providing some strategic depth against land forces, and it could yet happen.

    Chinese officials, including diplomats, have been using the former Chinese name for part of Russia’s Far East in angry online comments, following a celebration of Vladivostok’s 160th anniversary. We’ll see whether Russia can fend them off. I hope so.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Radicalcenter

    https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1405137294076559364?s=20


    English


    http://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/n6465652/n6465653/c6812150/content.html

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    , @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Radicalcenter

    The Holy Grail for genocidal racists like you is to pry Russia and China apart, replace Putin with a New Yeltsin, then launch your beloved Great Clash of Races and Civilizations genocide against China. I hope you lose, of course, but Evil is very strong in our species, and if your villainous type prevail, humanity will end.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    , @Dmitry
    @Radicalcenter

    Fear of Chinese people immigrating and buying properties, is more something threatening in Kazakhstan than in the Far East. (Kazakh nationalists are regularly protesting against China. Borat needs to be updated to include this.)

    Meanwhile, Chinese elite and upper class are only interested in invading Vancouver and London.

    Aside from a couple of cities, the Far East is dying region for living, and it's being treated by its own government like it is on the trashcan of history - nobody wants to invade. And the Chinese areas on the other side of the border are some third world wasteland and dystopia.

    -


    However, this border is and will increasingly become (according to current plans) an economically important crossover point for trade, in particular energy trade, which depends on friendly co-operation of the Chinese and Russian governments, rather than conflict.

    Selfish interests of the economic elites, are boring to discuss. But this is an area where Russian trade, can also help the life of the ordinary Chinese working people, to be objectively improved.

    One of the nightmares of life in China, must be the air pollution caused by burning coal near to cities.

    Increasing supply of gas to China from Russia, by allowing more coal power stations to transfer to gas power, will save tens of thousands of lives in China and improve objectively the health of many more Chinese citizens.

    https://d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net/tinymce/2020-10/1602091516-o_1ek21gubm1ch912q613ml3r21prn8_large.jpg

    , @d dan
    @Radicalcenter


    "...nearly 100,000 Chinese migrants were entering the Russian Far East each year... It predicts that by 2050 — only 29 years from now — Chinese will be the second largest ethnicity in the RF after Russian... China is already using steady settlement — some illegal under Russian law — to build a stronger physical, demographic, economic, and cultural foothold in Russia’s Far East."
     
    Blah, blah, blah, ... those scary yellow perils invading Russia.

    FYI: Chinese have been migrating to all over the world, seeking better jobs, founding new businesses and looking for profitable trades,... for centuries. Tens of millions are in South East Asia, in Europe, in USA, in Australia. Chinese are already (not just "will be") the largest or "the second largest" ethnicity in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and many other countries - all countries that still remain independent from China. All these countries don't possess nuclear weapons and have only a tiny fraction of Russia's military capability and yet they display no fear of China,...

    Wonder why?

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_leoGYAeiH44/TEyjGz_oTNI/AAAAAAAAKro/biY4v5nWB0A/s1600/chinese+diaspora.jpg

    Historically, Zheng He super naval fleets travelled to East Africa. Chinese traded with so many countries without invading them, but when European appeared,... you know the rest of the story. That is why today, leaders from countries who understand this context would say:


    [1] “Why not make Philippines a province of China?” – Philippines President Duterte
    [2] “I’d side with rich China over fickle US” – Malaysia’s former PM Mahathir Mohamad
     
    [1] https://www.rappler.com/nation/duterte-philippines-province-china
    [2] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2189074/id-side-rich-china-over-fickle-us-malaysias-mahathir

    Replies: @Sinotibetan

  217. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin

    If America stays woke it probably goes down in a very ridiculous way. I suspect this is a brief and destructive fad though, like Prohibition.

    But genetically enhanced intelligence can be sold as a way of mitigating the racial IQ gap. Hypocrisy and reversal of positions are nothing strange. If a way to biologically eliminate the IQ gap were to be discovered, suddenly Jensen would be presented in a different light and genetic IQ enhancement would be rigorously pursued in the name of justice. There would be as many 300 IQ blacks as 300 IQ whites.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Matra

    Imagine 300 IQ blacks tho. Imagine all of them like that.

    The result would probably make Prussia look like a hippie commune. Similar applies to LatAm and various Melanesians/Oceanians.

    The interesting ones would be the Khoisan and the Australian Aboriginals, but both are basically extinct

    • Replies: @DNS
    @Svevlad


    Imagine 300 IQ blacks tho. Imagine all of them like that.

    The result would probably make Prussia look like a hippie commune.

     

    Indeed.

    https://i.imgur.com/FpWplR4.png
  218. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Blinky Bill

    East-Central Europe bans Huawei because their main goal in life is to please America. India bans it because it has its own legitimate natsec reasons to do so.

    Replies: @utu, @Vishnugupta, @Felix Keverich, @Dmitry

    Natsec plus the fact that Indian customers has the lowest data costs in the world and Indian telecom companies are building their 5G networks using the much more cost effective Open RAN architecture.

    https://www.lightreading.com/looking-ahead-in-india-5g-open-ran-and-fiberization/d/d-id/766632

    Plus we have our domestic telecom equipment companies that we would like to see scale up and become our own Huawei in 10-15 years.

    https://www.tejasnetworks.com/

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @Vishnugupta

    I should really go back there again. I need to see the South more.

    It's really an amazing country.

    , @Triteleia Laxa
    @Vishnugupta

    I like India so much. Rich Indians, when they're not being show offs, are such great company. I also love the food, enjoy the philosophy, aesthetic and history. I see a lot of Hindu symbolism.

    Modern economics are not zero sum. Nor is technological progress. India's rise would be everyone's gain. I look forward to it shining for decades ahead. The world will be a pretty incredible place with a full developed South Asia, East Asia, Europe, Americas and Middle East.

    I have a weird thing against Gandhi though, I find his historical character to be creepy and joyless.

  219. @Svevlad
    @AP

    Imagine 300 IQ blacks tho. Imagine all of them like that.

    The result would probably make Prussia look like a hippie commune. Similar applies to LatAm and various Melanesians/Oceanians.

    The interesting ones would be the Khoisan and the Australian Aboriginals, but both are basically extinct

    Replies: @DNS

    Imagine 300 IQ blacks tho. Imagine all of them like that.

    The result would probably make Prussia look like a hippie commune.

    Indeed.

    • Agree: Bashibuzuk
    • Thanks: Boomthorkell
  220. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin

    If America stays woke it probably goes down in a very ridiculous way. I suspect this is a brief and destructive fad though, like Prohibition.

    But genetically enhanced intelligence can be sold as a way of mitigating the racial IQ gap. Hypocrisy and reversal of positions are nothing strange. If a way to biologically eliminate the IQ gap were to be discovered, suddenly Jensen would be presented in a different light and genetic IQ enhancement would be rigorously pursued in the name of justice. There would be as many 300 IQ blacks as 300 IQ whites.

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Matra

    If America stays woke it probably goes down in a very ridiculous way. I suspect this is a brief and destructive fad though, like Prohibition.

    Wokeness is just political correctness under a name that its younger adherents prefer. We’ve been hearing about it being a fad that’s nothing to worry about since the late 1980s, but instead of going away like Prohibition, it’s evolving & spreading just as predicted by the original critics of PC. The only thing that could make resistance to wokeness more successful than it was to PC culture over the last 30 years is if it actually starts to impact the elites themselves – which, I suppose, is possible if it moves beyond cost-free virtue-signalling.

  221. @Radicalcenter
    @Blinky Bill

    The difference is, China isn’t competing for control of the provinces they already have controlled and populated for centuries. They don’t need to move people there to take over new territory.

    By contrast, they will need to move people to the Russian Far East to effect and consolidate control over that new territory. I don’t see what would prevent them from doing so when they conclude that the circumstances are right.

    Also, let’s compare the population of those “depopulating” Chinese provinces in the Northeast with the population of the also-depopulating Russian Far East Federal District: 100 million to 7 million. As a bonus, possibly as many as a million of those seven million people are Chinese.

    Already over a decade ago, nearly 100,000 Chinese migrants were entering the Russian Far East each year. Please see https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/04/17/putin-warns-all-illegal-chinese-immigrants-living-in-its-far-east-to-leave-or-get-punished/

    This next article describes the Chinese practice of opening businesses in Russia and hiring only or almost only Chinese people, not Slavs or other peoples of the RF. It predicts that by 2050 — only 29 years from now — Chinese will be the second largest ethnicity in the RF after Russian (surpassing the Tatars):
    euromaidanpress.com/2016/10/28/chinese-to-becoming-second-largest-ethnicity-in-russia-moscow-demographer-says/

    China is already using steady settlement — some illegal under Russian law — to build a stronger physical, demographic, economic, and cultural foothold in Russia’s Far East. China would like to have that territory, for its natural resources and as a buffer providing some strategic depth against land forces, and it could yet happen.

    Chinese officials, including diplomats, have been using the former Chinese name for part of Russia’s Far East in angry online comments, following a celebration of Vladivostok’s 160th anniversary. We’ll see whether Russia can fend them off. I hope so.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @Dmitry, @d dan

    English

    http://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/n6465652/n6465653/c6812150/content.html

    • Thanks: AltanBakshi, mal
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    https://twitter.com/yicaichina/status/1405499272326418433?s=20

  222. @Anatoly Karlin
    @utu

    So ECE banning Huawei was a gift to Putin?

    https://twitter.com/DanielLarison/status/1404829611695947780

    Replies: @utu

    Teenage girls will be eternally grateful to you for endorsing and legitimizing snarking which is their weapon of choice in argumentation.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @utu


    ...legitimizing snarking
     
    But it was correct, not snarky: everything is a gift to Putin is a go-to argument in the West whenever they lose in a discussion. I have just listened to a cross-section of the Western media saying that acknowledging Jan 6 demonstration as a human rights issue would be a gift to Putin. So would Assange, migration, elections of all kinds, etc...all a gift to Putin, they literally say it, it is not a parody any longer.

    If it describes reality it's not snarky, maybe Western media-politicians are a bunch of teenage girls. (No, unfortunately, they are dumpy elderly women of both genders.)

  223. @Anatoly Karlin
    @AP

    Fall behind in what sense? Economic power? Technology? Military strength?

    Anyhow, I doubt it. Technological espionage is much easier today than it was half a century ago, innovations diffuse much more rapidly, and the rate of technological chance itself has fallen on most metrics so any lingering gaps (should they exist) will be less critical.

    In a world in which technological growth halts outright - and a Bifurcated world can be expected to have less of it, due to restrictions on human capital flows - there's a good possibility that China, with its East Asian tilt towards optimization over innovation, will win outright.

    Replies: @Tom Marvolo Riddle, @AP, @Blinky Bill, @Blinky Bill


    [MORE]

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill


    https://youtu.be/q6oTziHKM_c?t=30

  224. @Blinky Bill
    @Anatoly Karlin

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3__-zyVgAMrxpb.jpg


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E3__-zFVkAc8wE6.jpg

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E4AAZ9oVgAA7_En.jpg

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

  225. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Blinky Bill

    East-Central Europe bans Huawei because their main goal in life is to please America. India bans it because it has its own legitimate natsec reasons to do so.

    Replies: @utu, @Vishnugupta, @Felix Keverich, @Dmitry

    It strikes me as an equivalent of Ukrainian ban on Russian social networks, ostensibly motivated by similar “natsec reasons”. This is what petty, insecure countries do.

  226. @Beckow
    @Vishnugupta


    ...India is not Ukraine.We have no delusions of being accepted as Westerners or anything else we are not.
     
    True, delusions lead to tears. All recently minted oligarchs were minted with Western support - they wouldn't be oligarchs for long if they don't do what they are told. That is not the case w Tata, Birla etc... it is almost universally the case in Ukraine and used to be in Russia. Compradors are literally the bought people, they are bought for a reason.

    Countries that have better universal access around the world and loyal (preferably native) business class will do better in the future. US-EU-Japan are slowly closing off, others are opening up. EU is fundamentally not competitive due to its lack of resources and better living standards. EU has a choice: protect its markets or slowly go down. Personally, I am in favor of closing off access to EU and preserving the lifestyle - I don't put much value on productivity, trinkets, efficiency and similar nonsense. Others see it differently, this will be a bloody few decades of transition.

    There will not be a technology miracle salvation for the West - that is an illusion (not the only one that AP lives by). The people are not who they used to be and there is no demand for a new miracle. Why would the elites need one?

    Replies: @Vishnugupta

    Your continent your choice.Though I am afraid there are already too many Muslims and crazy leftists in core EU countries for your preferred solution being seriously considered.

    EU countries for all their inherent strengths and past achievements seem to be in a state of long term relative decline which probably will last for at least a generation.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Vishnugupta

    European core is not where you think it is. The Western periphery is indeed gone to the crazies and overrun by Third World migrants, but that is not real Europe. The central and central-eastern Europe is holding steady and has always been more traditionally European than the marginals in the big cities out West. They know it and just like all sinking losers they try to pull others down with them. They know that in a generation or two their Western countries will be literally unliveable.

    How do we know who is up and who is down? An easy historical test is to see who is screeching the most and incoherently babbling about "values". And who is quietly getting better year by year. Who knows what gender is, what work looks like, and why childless elderly people shouldn't be in charge of anything. Westerners as a society lost that understanding, so they are done. We still have a chance.

  227. @utu
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Teenage girls will be eternally grateful to you for endorsing and legitimizing snarking which is their weapon of choice in argumentation.

    Replies: @Beckow

    …legitimizing snarking

    But it was correct, not snarky: everything is a gift to Putin is a go-to argument in the West whenever they lose in a discussion. I have just listened to a cross-section of the Western media saying that acknowledging Jan 6 demonstration as a human rights issue would be a gift to Putin. So would Assange, migration, elections of all kinds, etc…all a gift to Putin, they literally say it, it is not a parody any longer.

    If it describes reality it’s not snarky, maybe Western media-politicians are a bunch of teenage girls. (No, unfortunately, they are dumpy elderly women of both genders.)

    • Agree: Matra
  228. @Triteleia Laxa
    I don't understand why the US isn't friendly with Russia. I can only suppose that they are hoping that something favourable for them happens when Putin leaves power/dies. I am not sure they are wrong, but it seems a haphazard plan.

    Replies: @Barbarossa, @Felix Keverich, @Showmethereal

    What is there not to get? The US has no friends. It has subordinates. Russia is not i terested in being a subordinate. The closest the US has to “partners” is the 5 Eyes Anglo Saxon spy group. And even then only England is barely above vassal status.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Showmethereal


    The US has no friends
     
    What defines an international relationship as a friendship?

    The closest the US has to “partners” is the 5 Eyes Anglo Saxon spy group. And even then only England is barely above vassal status.
     
    In which specific and concrete ways does the UK come close to fitting the definition of "vassal"?

    Replies: @Vishnugupta, @showmethereal

  229. @Showmethereal
    @Triteleia Laxa

    What is there not to get? The US has no friends. It has subordinates. Russia is not i terested in being a subordinate. The closest the US has to "partners" is the 5 Eyes Anglo Saxon spy group. And even then only England is barely above vassal status.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    The US has no friends

    What defines an international relationship as a friendship?

    The closest the US has to “partners” is the 5 Eyes Anglo Saxon spy group. And even then only England is barely above vassal status.

    In which specific and concrete ways does the UK come close to fitting the definition of “vassal”?

    • Replies: @Vishnugupta
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Well its armed forces can't fight effectively without US support.

    The last campaign the UK fought independently was the Falklands and that turned out very one sided because the US gave the UK emergency supplies of AIM 9L sidewinder which gave the UK game changing all aspect missile firing capabilities (till aim 9L you could not fire an IR guided dogfight missile head on but had to maneuver behind your opponent and aim at the hot exhaust).Without this enhancement the Harriers wouldn't be able to take out Argentine Mirage 3 and Skyhawks with such contemptuous ease(9L was responsible for 20 Argentine fighter kills) and the UK may have even lost the air war since Harriers shot down could not be immediately replaced.Plus the US also helped with Satellite and Signals intelligence.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    , @showmethereal
    @Triteleia Laxa

    "a person or country in a subordinate position to another."

    Since the end of WW2 that is basically what the UK has been to the US. The end of the pound sterling after the Suez Crisis pretty much sealed it. That's why the US refused to help. And let's be serious... In the 5 Eyes gang the US is obviously the one who calls the shots. the UK is deputy and the other three are the sometimes officers. New Zealand though does attempt to keep as much autonomy as possible.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

  230. @Korenchkin
    @sudden death

    Britain was the foe, their Alliance was out of convenience after decades of trying to sabotage eachother in the Great Game.
    Had Russia and Germany succeeded in avoiding conflict then the many disasters of the 20th Century could've been avoided.

    Besides, the Chinese version of Drang Nach Osten is aimed at Southeast Asia.

    Replies: @Showmethereal, @LondonBob

    Yeah i wonder why people pretend Europe waz united except under Empire. Different ethnic groups always disliked each other. Now everyone is pretending Slavs weren’t looked down as by Western EuropeNs and Southern werent looked down upon by northern. I am not from Europe but the historical literature is easy to find. I’m still puzzled by the intense disdain toward Serbs in the lead up to WW1

  231. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Showmethereal


    The US has no friends
     
    What defines an international relationship as a friendship?

    The closest the US has to “partners” is the 5 Eyes Anglo Saxon spy group. And even then only England is barely above vassal status.
     
    In which specific and concrete ways does the UK come close to fitting the definition of "vassal"?

    Replies: @Vishnugupta, @showmethereal

    Well its armed forces can’t fight effectively without US support.

    The last campaign the UK fought independently was the Falklands and that turned out very one sided because the US gave the UK emergency supplies of AIM 9L sidewinder which gave the UK game changing all aspect missile firing capabilities (till aim 9L you could not fire an IR guided dogfight missile head on but had to maneuver behind your opponent and aim at the hot exhaust).Without this enhancement the Harriers wouldn’t be able to take out Argentine Mirage 3 and Skyhawks with such contemptuous ease(9L was responsible for 20 Argentine fighter kills) and the UK may have even lost the air war since Harriers shot down could not be immediately replaced.Plus the US also helped with Satellite and Signals intelligence.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill
    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Vishnugupta

    Britain may no longer have the ability to launch an independent expeditious force to the other side of the world. This does not make it a vassal state. This just makes it not the US.

  232. @Vishnugupta
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Well its armed forces can't fight effectively without US support.

    The last campaign the UK fought independently was the Falklands and that turned out very one sided because the US gave the UK emergency supplies of AIM 9L sidewinder which gave the UK game changing all aspect missile firing capabilities (till aim 9L you could not fire an IR guided dogfight missile head on but had to maneuver behind your opponent and aim at the hot exhaust).Without this enhancement the Harriers wouldn't be able to take out Argentine Mirage 3 and Skyhawks with such contemptuous ease(9L was responsible for 20 Argentine fighter kills) and the UK may have even lost the air war since Harriers shot down could not be immediately replaced.Plus the US also helped with Satellite and Signals intelligence.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    Britain may no longer have the ability to launch an independent expeditious force to the other side of the world. This does not make it a vassal state. This just makes it not the US.

    • Disagree: AltanBakshi
  233. @Vishnugupta
    @Beckow

    Your continent your choice.Though I am afraid there are already too many Muslims and crazy leftists in core EU countries for your preferred solution being seriously considered.

    EU countries for all their inherent strengths and past achievements seem to be in a state of long term relative decline which probably will last for at least a generation.

    Replies: @Beckow

    European core is not where you think it is. The Western periphery is indeed gone to the crazies and overrun by Third World migrants, but that is not real Europe. The central and central-eastern Europe is holding steady and has always been more traditionally European than the marginals in the big cities out West. They know it and just like all sinking losers they try to pull others down with them. They know that in a generation or two their Western countries will be literally unliveable.

    How do we know who is up and who is down? An easy historical test is to see who is screeching the most and incoherently babbling about “values”. And who is quietly getting better year by year. Who knows what gender is, what work looks like, and why childless elderly people shouldn’t be in charge of anything. Westerners as a society lost that understanding, so they are done. We still have a chance.

  234. @Commentator Mike
    @Dmitry


    Borat’s parody is even not very strong, compared to reality in some of Central Asia like Turkmenistan.
     
    I think what that Turkmen strongman did is commendable and worthy of praise rather than mockery (that's if you're a dog lover as most Europeans are). Muslims absolutely hate dogs and consider them haram and second only to pigs on the list of animals they revile. So this Muslim putting a dog on a pedestal is really something - probably considered blasphemy and idolatry by most Muslims. All power to the Turkmen strongman!

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh

    But dogs are wonderful creatures.

  235. @Radicalcenter
    @Blinky Bill

    The difference is, China isn’t competing for control of the provinces they already have controlled and populated for centuries. They don’t need to move people there to take over new territory.

    By contrast, they will need to move people to the Russian Far East to effect and consolidate control over that new territory. I don’t see what would prevent them from doing so when they conclude that the circumstances are right.

    Also, let’s compare the population of those “depopulating” Chinese provinces in the Northeast with the population of the also-depopulating Russian Far East Federal District: 100 million to 7 million. As a bonus, possibly as many as a million of those seven million people are Chinese.

    Already over a decade ago, nearly 100,000 Chinese migrants were entering the Russian Far East each year. Please see https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/04/17/putin-warns-all-illegal-chinese-immigrants-living-in-its-far-east-to-leave-or-get-punished/

    This next article describes the Chinese practice of opening businesses in Russia and hiring only or almost only Chinese people, not Slavs or other peoples of the RF. It predicts that by 2050 — only 29 years from now — Chinese will be the second largest ethnicity in the RF after Russian (surpassing the Tatars):
    euromaidanpress.com/2016/10/28/chinese-to-becoming-second-largest-ethnicity-in-russia-moscow-demographer-says/

    China is already using steady settlement — some illegal under Russian law — to build a stronger physical, demographic, economic, and cultural foothold in Russia’s Far East. China would like to have that territory, for its natural resources and as a buffer providing some strategic depth against land forces, and it could yet happen.

    Chinese officials, including diplomats, have been using the former Chinese name for part of Russia’s Far East in angry online comments, following a celebration of Vladivostok’s 160th anniversary. We’ll see whether Russia can fend them off. I hope so.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @Dmitry, @d dan

    The Holy Grail for genocidal racists like you is to pry Russia and China apart, replace Putin with a New Yeltsin, then launch your beloved Great Clash of Races and Civilizations genocide against China. I hope you lose, of course, but Evil is very strong in our species, and if your villainous type prevail, humanity will end.

    • Thanks: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Mulga Mumblebrain

    Ah, yes, the other problem I have with the modernite.

    Acting like someone supports something, when they simply make an observation.

    Remember: everything always sets itself into place in the end.

  236. @AP
    Ultimately if it becomes China-Russia-Iran-NK-Iran vs. everyone else, the former lose. CRINK would have to bring some other powers - such as Japan and the rest of Asia, or India, or Latin America, or the Muslim world - on board to really become competitive. I'm not predicting whether or not it can be done, but if it isn't done, the West determines the world's fate. The best CRINK can hope for is voluntary self-destruction.

    Replies: @Daniel Chieh, @Barbarossa, @Felix Keverich, @AltanBakshi, @china-russia-all-the-way, @Blinky Bill, @Dreadilk, @Rattus Norwegius

    I tend to agree, the Western alliance and it’s partners together is too strong to be defeated in armed conflict. Should the CRINK be hemmed in by the Western Axis then countries who wish to be neutral will be unable to trade with CRINK. Their trade will however continue with the Western Axis, thus strengthening the Western war effort. Some countries will also declare war even if they contribute little or nothing to the war effort. Especially if their is little cost in doing so, combined with pressure domestic and foreign. Much of Africa and Latin America might be in this category. In my opinion the best option for the CRINK countries is to avoid war, integrate and perhaps try to shape world insitution formal and informal.

  237. @utu
    @Anatoly Karlin

    "East-Central Europe bans Huawei because their main goal in life is to please America. " - This is probably correct because we must reject that they were actually influenced by the anti-5G Putin propaganda.


    Foreign disinformation: the plot to kill 5G (May 22, 2019)
    https://www.digitalcenter.org/columns/plot-to-kill-5g/

    Russia compensates for its lack of real political power by using disinformation (particularly digitally) to exploit weaknesses in open societies. Putin’s goal is to weaken democracy — not through direct confrontation, but rather by causing internal division, lack of faith in social and political institutions, and by spreading lies and false information. This multifaceted campaign throws doubt on science and facts. It causes citizens to distrust news media, political leaders, common sense and each other.

    5G is an essential technology that will move the digital revolution into the next phase. Those countries that move quickly into 5G will gain an important advantage over those that lag behind.

    Even with Putin’s support, Russia is clearly, at best, in the second ranks of 5G development, far behind the U.S., China and South Korea.

    The easiest way for Russia to level the playing field with 5G is to cripple its deployment outside Russia. That is where RT comes in. Their report detailing the massive dangers of the effects of 5G technology was titled, “A Dangerous Experiment on Humanity.” Not even trying to be subtle or consider scientific evidence, RT — looking at 5G concerns — reported, “There is just a small one. It might kill you.”
     
    And then in 2020

    Anti-vaxxers and Russia behind viral 5G COVID conspiracy theory (April 2020)
    https://allianceforscience.cornell.edu/blog/2020/04/anti-vaxxers-and-russia-behind-viral-5g-covid-conspiracy-theory/
     

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Mulga Mumblebrain

    The proposition that the Western capitalist oligarchies, with their highly concentrated media ownership, savage Internet censorship and ‘de-platforming’, sham politics and total control of all the levers of power by a tiny elite, disproportionately Judaic, particularly in finance, are ‘open societies’ is as ludicrous as it is nauseating.

  238. @utu
    @Barbarossa

    China and Russia are where Germany and Russia were in 1905. Germany was getting stronger and stronger and Russia was recovering from the setback of war with Japan and also getting stronger due to reforms. But Russia did not ally itself with Germany against the West then. Will Russia ally itself with Germany=China and resist the pull of the West this time? Will China resist being sucked into war unlike Germany in 1914? China is too thin skinned about Taiwan so she is very vulnerable to provocations there.

    Anyway, I do not believe there will be war any time soon and hopefully never. But if China decides to move against Taiwan there will be war that the US will not refuse.

    Replies: @Rattus Norwegius

    The Russian Federation of today is weaker relative to it’s peers than the Russian Empire of the 1910s.

  239. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Blinky Bill


    My guess is yes, the Americans will ensure the Indians are prevented from following the Chinese path of development.
     
    Not sure how they would be in a position to. There's some conspiracy theories that, say, the Americans choked off Japan's aerospace industry, but even so, there's a difference between a 127M country and a 1.4B one. One that is strategically autonomous, having good relations with Russia, being the informal leader of the non-aligned bloc, etc.

    Replies: @Mulga Mumblebrain

    Indian compradores and Overseas Indian dual loyalists will ensure that India operates as if still under English rule. Malla types will proliferate and a Chinese style autarchic approach when attacked, and utilitarian national development in all spheres at other times, won’t develop. Better a rich compradore in a global neo-liberal pathocracy than enlightened self-interest. Indian elites hate China not just for its vastly greater achievements, but for its cultural integrity and authenticity. Subservience to the West will empower elites castes and the Hindutva fascists, too.

  240. @Triteleia Laxa
    @reiner Tor

    I disagree with her immigration policies, but it isn't about my opinion; as I recognise that other people's judgements aren't formed by my opinion.

    I also notice that Merkel's legacy includes Germany, finally, dominating Europe. I dislike this outcome, but, as above, I can appreciate that other people like it.

    Replies: @Rattus Norwegius

    While Germany is influential in the EU, is it large enough to ‘dominate’ the EU? There is lingering anti-German sentiment in many countries. Germany’s economy or population while significant is certainly not overshadowing the EU. Germany economy is decling relative to eastern and central European states as their economies grow faster than Germany. France however is probably going to become more influential in the future. Though France won’t dominate Europe, which Germany does not do now, however France could lead the dominant EU faction.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @Rattus Norwegius

    "Dominate" is a loosely defined verb, so it is debatable.

    Germany pays a big part of the EU's budget, but a disproportionately small part relative to its economic budget. This seems very favourable to them.

    Germany has also sucked the economic life out of the Southern countries, through its inarguable dominance of Euro monetary policy. This has been further compounded by a brain drain of the young from South to North.

    Germany unilaterally opened the EU's borders; which was extremely strongly opposed by Eastern countries and quietly opposed by Western countries. This was despite Britain's obvious opposition, under Cameron, and that is now gone. I cannot think of a bigger show of power in recent years.

    I don't see why you would argue that France will grow in stature. Their country is as divided, with Generals even threatening civil war, as Germany is united. Their economy has been moribund for years. They still have a real military, but that's good for messing around in Mali, not dominating the EU.

    The Visegrad countries might form a more effective alternative block, but this is some way off; it is currently only defensive. They are also aging, shrinking and, though their economies are converging with the West, they are still a long way off.

    I also know this: Brexit negotiators turned to Merkel when they sought out the bottom line.

  241. @Rattus Norwegius
    @Triteleia Laxa

    While Germany is influential in the EU, is it large enough to 'dominate' the EU? There is lingering anti-German sentiment in many countries. Germany's economy or population while significant is certainly not overshadowing the EU. Germany economy is decling relative to eastern and central European states as their economies grow faster than Germany. France however is probably going to become more influential in the future. Though France won't dominate Europe, which Germany does not do now, however France could lead the dominant EU faction.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    “Dominate” is a loosely defined verb, so it is debatable.

    Germany pays a big part of the EU’s budget, but a disproportionately small part relative to its economic budget. This seems very favourable to them.

    Germany has also sucked the economic life out of the Southern countries, through its inarguable dominance of Euro monetary policy. This has been further compounded by a brain drain of the young from South to North.

    Germany unilaterally opened the EU’s borders; which was extremely strongly opposed by Eastern countries and quietly opposed by Western countries. This was despite Britain’s obvious opposition, under Cameron, and that is now gone. I cannot think of a bigger show of power in recent years.

    I don’t see why you would argue that France will grow in stature. Their country is as divided, with Generals even threatening civil war, as Germany is united. Their economy has been moribund for years. They still have a real military, but that’s good for messing around in Mali, not dominating the EU.

    The Visegrad countries might form a more effective alternative block, but this is some way off; it is currently only defensive. They are also aging, shrinking and, though their economies are converging with the West, they are still a long way off.

    I also know this: Brexit negotiators turned to Merkel when they sought out the bottom line.

  242. @Radicalcenter
    @Blinky Bill

    The difference is, China isn’t competing for control of the provinces they already have controlled and populated for centuries. They don’t need to move people there to take over new territory.

    By contrast, they will need to move people to the Russian Far East to effect and consolidate control over that new territory. I don’t see what would prevent them from doing so when they conclude that the circumstances are right.

    Also, let’s compare the population of those “depopulating” Chinese provinces in the Northeast with the population of the also-depopulating Russian Far East Federal District: 100 million to 7 million. As a bonus, possibly as many as a million of those seven million people are Chinese.

    Already over a decade ago, nearly 100,000 Chinese migrants were entering the Russian Far East each year. Please see https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/04/17/putin-warns-all-illegal-chinese-immigrants-living-in-its-far-east-to-leave-or-get-punished/

    This next article describes the Chinese practice of opening businesses in Russia and hiring only or almost only Chinese people, not Slavs or other peoples of the RF. It predicts that by 2050 — only 29 years from now — Chinese will be the second largest ethnicity in the RF after Russian (surpassing the Tatars):
    euromaidanpress.com/2016/10/28/chinese-to-becoming-second-largest-ethnicity-in-russia-moscow-demographer-says/

    China is already using steady settlement — some illegal under Russian law — to build a stronger physical, demographic, economic, and cultural foothold in Russia’s Far East. China would like to have that territory, for its natural resources and as a buffer providing some strategic depth against land forces, and it could yet happen.

    Chinese officials, including diplomats, have been using the former Chinese name for part of Russia’s Far East in angry online comments, following a celebration of Vladivostok’s 160th anniversary. We’ll see whether Russia can fend them off. I hope so.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @Dmitry, @d dan

    Fear of Chinese people immigrating and buying properties, is more something threatening in Kazakhstan than in the Far East. (Kazakh nationalists are regularly protesting against China. Borat needs to be updated to include this.)

    Meanwhile, Chinese elite and upper class are only interested in invading Vancouver and London.

    Aside from a couple of cities, the Far East is dying region for living, and it’s being treated by its own government like it is on the trashcan of history – nobody wants to invade. And the Chinese areas on the other side of the border are some third world wasteland and dystopia.

    However, this border is and will increasingly become (according to current plans) an economically important crossover point for trade, in particular energy trade, which depends on friendly co-operation of the Chinese and Russian governments, rather than conflict.

    Selfish interests of the economic elites, are boring to discuss. But this is an area where Russian trade, can also help the life of the ordinary Chinese working people, to be objectively improved.

    One of the nightmares of life in China, must be the air pollution caused by burning coal near to cities.

    Increasing supply of gas to China from Russia, by allowing more coal power stations to transfer to gas power, will save tens of thousands of lives in China and improve objectively the health of many more Chinese citizens.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
  243. @AP
    @Anatoly Karlin

    American-born Jews are often descended from people who left the Russian Empire before the Revolution. For them, Russia = Cossacks and Pogroms (and those whose ancestors left Ukraine see Ukraine as Russia for such purposes). These guys are very left-wing and susceptible to the fake claim of Trump being a Russian tool.

    Recent Jewish immigrants tend to support Russian culture but hate the late-stage USSR which they viewed as antisemitic. They consider ex-KGB man Putin to be a product of the Soviet system that they despise and are thus politically anti-Russian. But they are also right wing and support Trump, whom they correctly identify as not being in Putin's pocket.

    So overall, American Jews are opposed to the Russian state.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Beckow

    …So overall, American Jews are opposed to the Russian state.

    One additional group are American Jews who went back in the 90’s to get rich of Russia. They knew the language, had connections, it was a free-for-all. Some made money, but many more wanted to. In a weird coitus-interruptus they were unceremoniously sent home by Putin. There are few more vengeful people than wanna-be rich back in their dull American office jobs. The wealth was so close, so shiny, and then Putin ruined it.

    Some wrote books, some went into politics, many still hate with a passion that would burn a city. Many young activists are from families who experienced this. They felt entitled to the riches. You can see their disappointment in their obsession with Putin as “thief”, “gangster”, “richest man in the world” – it is their subconscious anger coming out. He took it from them, they will never forgive him, and neither will their offspring.

    • Replies: @Dreadilk
    @Beckow

    Someone needs to write a book on this.

    Replies: @Beckow

  244. @Radicalcenter
    @Blinky Bill

    The difference is, China isn’t competing for control of the provinces they already have controlled and populated for centuries. They don’t need to move people there to take over new territory.

    By contrast, they will need to move people to the Russian Far East to effect and consolidate control over that new territory. I don’t see what would prevent them from doing so when they conclude that the circumstances are right.

    Also, let’s compare the population of those “depopulating” Chinese provinces in the Northeast with the population of the also-depopulating Russian Far East Federal District: 100 million to 7 million. As a bonus, possibly as many as a million of those seven million people are Chinese.

    Already over a decade ago, nearly 100,000 Chinese migrants were entering the Russian Far East each year. Please see https://tfiglobalnews.com/2021/04/17/putin-warns-all-illegal-chinese-immigrants-living-in-its-far-east-to-leave-or-get-punished/

    This next article describes the Chinese practice of opening businesses in Russia and hiring only or almost only Chinese people, not Slavs or other peoples of the RF. It predicts that by 2050 — only 29 years from now — Chinese will be the second largest ethnicity in the RF after Russian (surpassing the Tatars):
    euromaidanpress.com/2016/10/28/chinese-to-becoming-second-largest-ethnicity-in-russia-moscow-demographer-says/

    China is already using steady settlement — some illegal under Russian law — to build a stronger physical, demographic, economic, and cultural foothold in Russia’s Far East. China would like to have that territory, for its natural resources and as a buffer providing some strategic depth against land forces, and it could yet happen.

    Chinese officials, including diplomats, have been using the former Chinese name for part of Russia’s Far East in angry online comments, following a celebration of Vladivostok’s 160th anniversary. We’ll see whether Russia can fend them off. I hope so.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @Dmitry, @d dan

    “…nearly 100,000 Chinese migrants were entering the Russian Far East each year… It predicts that by 2050 — only 29 years from now — Chinese will be the second largest ethnicity in the RF after Russian… China is already using steady settlement — some illegal under Russian law — to build a stronger physical, demographic, economic, and cultural foothold in Russia’s Far East.”

    Blah, blah, blah, … those scary yellow perils invading Russia.

    FYI: Chinese have been migrating to all over the world, seeking better jobs, founding new businesses and looking for profitable trades,… for centuries. Tens of millions are in South East Asia, in Europe, in USA, in Australia. Chinese are already (not just “will be”) the largest or “the second largest” ethnicity in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and many other countries – all countries that still remain independent from China. All these countries don’t possess nuclear weapons and have only a tiny fraction of Russia’s military capability and yet they display no fear of China,…

    Wonder why?

    Historically, Zheng He super naval fleets travelled to East Africa. Chinese traded with so many countries without invading them, but when European appeared,… you know the rest of the story. That is why today, leaders from countries who understand this context would say:

    [1] “Why not make Philippines a province of China?” – Philippines President Duterte
    [2] “I’d side with rich China over fickle US” – Malaysia’s former PM Mahathir Mohamad

    [1] https://www.rappler.com/nation/duterte-philippines-province-china
    [2] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2189074/id-side-rich-china-over-fickle-us-malaysias-mahathir

    • Thanks: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @d dan

    You are right that the Chinese are not migrating in droves into the Russian Far East. In fact, the highest number of Chinese migrants are in Moscow. Chinese migrants are attracted more to urban areas with significant economic activities.
    https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/the-myth-of-a-chinese-takeover-in-the-russian-far-east/
    The provinces closest to the Russian Far East : Heilongjiang and Jilin, are in demographic decline, and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. The young in those provinces are mostly migrating to, not Russia or Russian Far East, but to the richer and bustling with economic activity + milder climes of southeastern coastal provinces in China. I think currently the typical Chinese mindset of ascendency is more economic than annexation of other overseas lands ala West European colonialists of the past.
    As for Malaysia, the ex Prime Minister Mahathir actually is a Sinophobe and hates Chinese people. His book "Dilemma Melayu" (or the Malay Dilemma in English) was all about the uneasy Malaysian Chinese vs Malay racial relations. The Chinese in Malaysia are second class citizens based on the Ketuanan Melayu (translated into English = Lordship of the Malays/Malay Dominance) concept promulgated by Mahathir and his ilk. It is Government policy under decades of BN(Barisan Nasional) rule and now the 'backdoor' PN Government. These ethnic Malay elites ensured an affirmative action policy that denies top posts in GLCs(government linked companies) to non Malays, same for top posts in the civil service and there are ethnic quota systems in place in public universities ensuring 'professional' degrees have a hefty portion of ethnic Malays, thus denying some smart Malaysian Chinese their rightful place in these courses.
    Mahathir said all that not for any liking of the Chinese but for hating USA more than he hates China. Malaysian Chinese are officially the 2nd most populous ethnicity, but I think Bangladeshis or Indonesians must have beaten them with... The government has a policy to close an eye on illegal migrations of ethnicities which are Muslims, to ultimately increase the Malay-Muslim (these ethnicities easily became 'Malays') electorate base.
    This is my experience of multiculturalism. That's why liberals in the West disgust me.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan

  245. @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Azerbaijan did not antagonise Russia while quietly also cultivating ties with the USA, Turkey and Israel. It was then able to crush Armenia at a time when Armenia forgot where it was and chose the USA over Russia.

    Georgia in contrast chose to antagonize Russia.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    I think that when you boil it all down, the real source of all perceived “antagonism” towards Russia from Ukraine was when a majority of its citizens opted for a European orientation for their country, rather than for Putin sponsored Eurasian projects. Are you suggesting that the majority of Ukrainians made a wrong choice?

    • Replies: @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Ukraine is in a rather different position than Georgia.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

  246. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Blinky Bill

    East-Central Europe bans Huawei because their main goal in life is to please America. India bans it because it has its own legitimate natsec reasons to do so.

    Replies: @utu, @Vishnugupta, @Felix Keverich, @Dmitry

    Trump was successful in stopping Huawei’s 5G ambitions, at cost to his own allies.

    But note that the 5G consumption ban, hardly stops investments of Chinese companies like Huawei in the West, and they will likely soon be able to get chips again.

    Huawei to Build an Optoelectronics RnD and Manufacturing Centre in Cambridge

    Huawei will invest £1 billion in the first phase of the project in Cambridge, which includes construction of 50,000 square meters of facilities across nine acres of land and will directly create around 400 local jobs. Once fully operational, it will become the international headquarters of Huawei’s optoelectronics business…

    The first phase of the project will focus on the research, development, and manufacturing of optical devices and modules, an integrated model that promises to bring innovation faster to market. Optoelectronics is a key technology used in fibre optic communication systems and this investment aims to bring the best of such technology to data centres and network infrastructure around the world.

    https://www.huawei.com/uk/news/uk/2020/huawei%20to%20build%20an%20optoelectronics%20rnd%20and%20manufacturing%20centre%20in%20cambridge

    And Huawei is still going to receive licenses to use British chips, as there was loophole in the export policy:

    British firm Arm says new chip tech could be licensed to Huawei, potentially easing the telecoms giant’s supply chain woes

    Arm said its latest tech upgrade is not subject to US export regulations, following a comprehensive review

    The British firm sells processor designs and licenses an instruction set – code that controls semiconductors – to companies like Huawei and Apple.

    Semiconductor design company Arm expects its latest v9 architecture to be potentially licensed to Huawei Technologies Co, as the latest chip innovation is of British origin and not subject to US export regulations.

    That would be a welcome development for Huawei, whose advanced chips are designed by semiconductor unit HiSilicon, amid its struggles to cope with tightened US trade sanctions that have restricted its access to sophisticated chips of American origin.

    The v9 architecture, which was launched by Arm on Tuesday in the UK, could be licensed to Huawei’s HiSilicon unit because it is not covered by US regulations, an Arm spokeswoman said on the sidelines of the Beijing event on Wednesday…

    That development could provide a much-needed respite for Huawei, which was put on Washington’s trade blacklist in 2019. The company has struggled under the US sanction, which has restricted its ability to buy hardware, software and services from American suppliers without approval from Washington.

    https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3127782/british-chip-design-firm-arm-takes-aim-intel-biggest-tech-overhaul

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Dmitry

    https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ionobKiD6Gi8/v4/-1x-1.png


    Chinese President Xi Jinping is renewing his years-long push to achieve technology self-sufficiency by tapping a top deputy to shepherd a key initiative aimed at helping domestic chipmakers overcome US sanctions.

    Mr Liu He, Mr Xi's economic czar whose sprawling portfolio spans trade to finance and technology, has been tapped to spearhead the development of so-called third-generation chip development and capabilities and is leading the formulation of a series of financial and policy supports for the technology, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

    It's a nascent field that relies on newer materials and gear beyond traditional silicon and is currently an arena where no company or nation yet dominates, offering Beijing one of its best chances to sidestep the hurdles slapped on its chipmaking industry by the US and its allies.

    The sanctions, which emerged during Mr Donald Trump's presidency, have already smothered Huawei Technologies Co's smartphone business and will impede longer-term efforts by chipmakers from Huawei's HiSilicon to Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp to migrate toward more advanced wafer fabrication technologies, threatening China's technological ambitions.

    "China is the world's largest user of chips, so supply chain security is of high priority," said Mr Gu Wenjun, chief analyst at research firm ICwise. "It's not possible for any country to control the entire supply chain, but a country's effort is definitely stronger than a single company."

    The involvement of one of Mr Xi's most-trusted lieutenants in China's chip efforts highlights the importance accorded by Beijing to the initiative, which is gaining urgency as rivals from the US to Japan and South Korea scramble to shore up their own industries.

    The Chinese president has long called upon his Harvard-educated adviser to tackle matters of top national priority, making him the chief representative in trade negotiations with the US as well as chairman of the Financial Stability and Development Committee, where Mr Liu leads the charge to curb risks in the nation's US$5 trillion (S$6.68 trillion) plus financial sector.

    In May, Mr Liu spearheaded a meeting of the technology task force that discussed ways to grow next-generation semiconductor technologies, according to a government statement.

    The 69-year-old vice-premier, who has led the country's technology reform task force since 2018, is also overseeing projects that could lead to breakthroughs in traditional chipmaking, including the development of China's own chip design software and extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as they weren't authorized to speak to media.

    During trade negotiations with the Trump administration, Mr Liu emerged as one of the most visible advocates of Beijing's agenda.

    He's known Mr Xi since childhood - both are sons of veteran Communist Party leaders and were among masses of young people dispatched to work in impoverished rural areas during the Cultural Revolution.

    Now, Liu is leading the charge to reform the tech sector, which was identified in China's latest five-year economic plan as a key strategic area in which the "whole nation system" should be used to mobilise any necessary resources.

    First introduced under Mao Zedong to help the then-fledgling Communist China industrialize, the approach was crucial to helping Beijing attain a number of top national priorities, from developing its first atomic bomb in the early 1960s to achieving Olympic sporting success.

    After that it was largely set aside as officials shifted to focus on economic growth. But following a series of US sanctions that exposed the vulnerabilities of China's chip capabilities, Mr Xi is once again reactivating the mechanism to achieve breakthroughs in advanced chip development and manufacturing.

    About a trillion dollars of government funding have been set aside under the technology initiative, part of which will be used by central and local governments to jointly invest in a series of third-generation chip projects, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

    Top chipmakers and research institutes have submitted proposals to the ministries of science and information technology, all vying for a place in the national programme and a share of the financing.

    The Ministry of Science and Technology is slated to inject 400 million yuan (S$83.23 million) into some key "strategic electronics materials" including third-generation chips, according to a government document.

    Even moonshot chip programmes are in line for government funding. The state-backed National Natural Science Foundation of China has pledged financial support for dozens of exploratory research programmes, ranging from ultra-low power consumption to the development of a flexible chip that can collect and transmit nerve signals, as Beijing seeks to overcome "computing bottlenecks" when Moore's Law - the industry standard for predicting the pace of chip improvements - finally stops working.

    Several subsidiaries of China Electronics Technology Group Corp and China Railway Construction Corp - organisations already sanctioned by the U.S. - are among the state-backed firms backing the effort, one of the people said. Another government-linked giant, China Electronics Corp, is one of the leaders in third-generation chip development, thanks to its investment in smaller firms including CEC Semiconductor Co.

    Using its own in-house technology, CEC Semiconductor makes silicone carbide-based power devices that can work at 200 deg C for a number of key industries from telecommunications to electric cars - reducing China's reliance on overseas suppliers such as Infineon Technologies AG, Rohm Co and Cree Inc.

    The task of coordinating that sprawling programme now falls to Mr Liu, who has to keep track of the relevant resources and drive the national strategy to help China achieve chip independence.

    "For our country, technology and innovation is not just a matter of growth," Mr Liu told a three-story auditorium packed with China's top scientists in a separate meeting in May. "It's also a matter of survival."

    Mr Xi is counting on his lieutenant to help China fend off growing threats from the US, which is seeking to take back chip industry supremacy.

    Under the Trump administration, sanctions were slapped on Chinese giants from Huawei to SMIC, cutting off their access to American technology and equipment crucial to designing and making advanced logic chips.

    President Joe Biden has also laid out a US $52 billion plan to bolster domestic chip manufacturing, while calling on allies to join export controls aimed at curbing Beijing's drive toward technology self-sufficiency.

    Rival powerhouse nations like South Korea and leading corporations such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. have also responded with their own spending plans, fuelling the race to take the lead in the sector.

    With traditional chipmaking facing a series of challenges from technology development to heavy capital investment, third-generation chips - which use compounds such as gallium nitride and silicon carbide to significantly improve the performance of semiconductors that power a wide range of industries and products - may offer China its best chance to overcome rivals, senior academic Mao Junfa told an industry event in Nanjing earlier this month.

    "China couldn't buy chips, even with cash in hand," he said, referring to Washington's sanctions on Chinese tech companies including Huawei. "The compound chip technologies could help China surpass rivals in the post-Moore's Law era."

    Replies: @mal, @Dmitry

  247. @reiner Tor
    @Felix Keverich

    You are likely correct, but in the short term it’s still an issue. I think when there was this melee combat in the Himalaya, the Russians were ready to send weapons to India quickly, which was not something China wanted.

    Replies: @showmethereal

    “the Russians were ready to send weapons to India quickly, which was not something China wanted”

    Not true. The Russians warned the Indians that the US was hoping to stoke fear and to cool things off. The Indian FM then told Russia effectively to mind its business. The western and Indian media made up a story about Russia expediting S400’s to India. it was nonsense. To this day they still don’t have them. Meanwhile Russia already delivered China it’s S400’s and for a lower price than India. Then Russia offered to sell Pakistan more weapons than the helicopters they did a few years back.

  248. @d dan
    @Radicalcenter


    "...nearly 100,000 Chinese migrants were entering the Russian Far East each year... It predicts that by 2050 — only 29 years from now — Chinese will be the second largest ethnicity in the RF after Russian... China is already using steady settlement — some illegal under Russian law — to build a stronger physical, demographic, economic, and cultural foothold in Russia’s Far East."
     
    Blah, blah, blah, ... those scary yellow perils invading Russia.

    FYI: Chinese have been migrating to all over the world, seeking better jobs, founding new businesses and looking for profitable trades,... for centuries. Tens of millions are in South East Asia, in Europe, in USA, in Australia. Chinese are already (not just "will be") the largest or "the second largest" ethnicity in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and many other countries - all countries that still remain independent from China. All these countries don't possess nuclear weapons and have only a tiny fraction of Russia's military capability and yet they display no fear of China,...

    Wonder why?

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_leoGYAeiH44/TEyjGz_oTNI/AAAAAAAAKro/biY4v5nWB0A/s1600/chinese+diaspora.jpg

    Historically, Zheng He super naval fleets travelled to East Africa. Chinese traded with so many countries without invading them, but when European appeared,... you know the rest of the story. That is why today, leaders from countries who understand this context would say:


    [1] “Why not make Philippines a province of China?” – Philippines President Duterte
    [2] “I’d side with rich China over fickle US” – Malaysia’s former PM Mahathir Mohamad
     
    [1] https://www.rappler.com/nation/duterte-philippines-province-china
    [2] https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2189074/id-side-rich-china-over-fickle-us-malaysias-mahathir

    Replies: @Sinotibetan

    You are right that the Chinese are not migrating in droves into the Russian Far East. In fact, the highest number of Chinese migrants are in Moscow. Chinese migrants are attracted more to urban areas with significant economic activities.
    https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/the-myth-of-a-chinese-takeover-in-the-russian-far-east/
    The provinces closest to the Russian Far East : Heilongjiang and Jilin, are in demographic decline, and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. The young in those provinces are mostly migrating to, not Russia or Russian Far East, but to the richer and bustling with economic activity + milder climes of southeastern coastal provinces in China. I think currently the typical Chinese mindset of ascendency is more economic than annexation of other overseas lands ala West European colonialists of the past.
    As for Malaysia, the ex Prime Minister Mahathir actually is a Sinophobe and hates Chinese people. His book “Dilemma Melayu” (or the Malay Dilemma in English) was all about the uneasy Malaysian Chinese vs Malay racial relations. The Chinese in Malaysia are second class citizens based on the Ketuanan Melayu (translated into English = Lordship of the Malays/Malay Dominance) concept promulgated by Mahathir and his ilk. It is Government policy under decades of BN(Barisan Nasional) rule and now the ‘backdoor’ PN Government. These ethnic Malay elites ensured an affirmative action policy that denies top posts in GLCs(government linked companies) to non Malays, same for top posts in the civil service and there are ethnic quota systems in place in public universities ensuring ‘professional’ degrees have a hefty portion of ethnic Malays, thus denying some smart Malaysian Chinese their rightful place in these courses.
    Mahathir said all that not for any liking of the Chinese but for hating USA more than he hates China. Malaysian Chinese are officially the 2nd most populous ethnicity, but I think Bangladeshis or Indonesians must have beaten them with… The government has a policy to close an eye on illegal migrations of ethnicities which are Muslims, to ultimately increase the Malay-Muslim (these ethnicities easily became ‘Malays’) electorate base.
    This is my experience of multiculturalism. That’s why liberals in the West disgust me.

    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @Sinotibetan

    I am a 'race realist', liberals will label me a bloody racist.
    Compare Malaysia and Singapore - Malay predominant vs Chinese predominant - Malay cultural mindset as policy vs Sinosphere mindset policy - a failing 3rd world country vs 1st world island in a sea of 3rd worlders.
    I do believe different cultures, different ethnic groups(and genetic profiles) lead to different strengths and weaknesses. In terms of material success, Singaporean Chinese ethnoculture beats Malay ethnoculture.
    But in the long run, Singapore may fail too because they worship the West too much. Their young and technocrats buy those garbage ideas spewed by Western progressives/liberals like 'anti racism' (=Negrophilia, Muslim wahhabist ascendency), anti meritocracy, pro LBGTQ etc.
    Western liberals/progressives are a scourge to humanity that show no sign of abating.

    Replies: @Svevlad

  249. Any talk of US-Chinese or US-Russia rivalry is ultimately nonsense. Just look at the elites of the US, the EU, Russia, and finally the CCP. They are always self-interested, and most extremely at the expense of the masses. What’s the use of EU being a superpower when much of the helots will own nothing? China when most of the youth are lying down? India when little of the benefits drip down to Dalits?

    My lingering libertarian sentiments hopes for a world without strategic competition and superpowers.

    • Agree: AaronB
    • Replies: @Sinotibetan
    @Yellowface Anon

    Sadly an idealistic notion.
    Competition and quest for supremacy is part of being human.

    , @Sinotibetan
    @Yellowface Anon

    All elites put their self-interest first. That's what elites do.
    I don't think the rivalries are fake. These are elites vs elites. However, since elites put self interest first, there will be 'inconsistencies' in their rivalries - especially when self interests of sparring elites converge. Change a regime, you change the elites but this very human trait of elite selfishness and rivalries continue with new faces. It will never end unless humanity ends.
    As for the EU, the constituent countries are generally USA vassals which occasionally squeak against the diktats of Washington, the global top dog elites. That's about all you can expect from them.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  250. @Sinotibetan
    @d dan

    You are right that the Chinese are not migrating in droves into the Russian Far East. In fact, the highest number of Chinese migrants are in Moscow. Chinese migrants are attracted more to urban areas with significant economic activities.
    https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/the-myth-of-a-chinese-takeover-in-the-russian-far-east/
    The provinces closest to the Russian Far East : Heilongjiang and Jilin, are in demographic decline, and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. The young in those provinces are mostly migrating to, not Russia or Russian Far East, but to the richer and bustling with economic activity + milder climes of southeastern coastal provinces in China. I think currently the typical Chinese mindset of ascendency is more economic than annexation of other overseas lands ala West European colonialists of the past.
    As for Malaysia, the ex Prime Minister Mahathir actually is a Sinophobe and hates Chinese people. His book "Dilemma Melayu" (or the Malay Dilemma in English) was all about the uneasy Malaysian Chinese vs Malay racial relations. The Chinese in Malaysia are second class citizens based on the Ketuanan Melayu (translated into English = Lordship of the Malays/Malay Dominance) concept promulgated by Mahathir and his ilk. It is Government policy under decades of BN(Barisan Nasional) rule and now the 'backdoor' PN Government. These ethnic Malay elites ensured an affirmative action policy that denies top posts in GLCs(government linked companies) to non Malays, same for top posts in the civil service and there are ethnic quota systems in place in public universities ensuring 'professional' degrees have a hefty portion of ethnic Malays, thus denying some smart Malaysian Chinese their rightful place in these courses.
    Mahathir said all that not for any liking of the Chinese but for hating USA more than he hates China. Malaysian Chinese are officially the 2nd most populous ethnicity, but I think Bangladeshis or Indonesians must have beaten them with... The government has a policy to close an eye on illegal migrations of ethnicities which are Muslims, to ultimately increase the Malay-Muslim (these ethnicities easily became 'Malays') electorate base.
    This is my experience of multiculturalism. That's why liberals in the West disgust me.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan

    I am a ‘race realist’, liberals will label me a bloody racist.
    Compare Malaysia and Singapore – Malay predominant vs Chinese predominant – Malay cultural mindset as policy vs Sinosphere mindset policy – a failing 3rd world country vs 1st world island in a sea of 3rd worlders.
    I do believe different cultures, different ethnic groups(and genetic profiles) lead to different strengths and weaknesses. In terms of material success, Singaporean Chinese ethnoculture beats Malay ethnoculture.
    But in the long run, Singapore may fail too because they worship the West too much. Their young and technocrats buy those garbage ideas spewed by Western progressives/liberals like ‘anti racism’ (=Negrophilia, Muslim wahhabist ascendency), anti meritocracy, pro LBGTQ etc.
    Western liberals/progressives are a scourge to humanity that show no sign of abating.

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Sinotibetan

    Every time I talked to someone from the "Malay world" (Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines etc) it was like I was talking to an alien. They think very weirdly, and are unusually stiff. Might be that their English sucks, but I doubt it.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  251. @Yellowface Anon
    Any talk of US-Chinese or US-Russia rivalry is ultimately nonsense. Just look at the elites of the US, the EU, Russia, and finally the CCP. They are always self-interested, and most extremely at the expense of the masses. What's the use of EU being a superpower when much of the helots will own nothing? China when most of the youth are lying down? India when little of the benefits drip down to Dalits?

    My lingering libertarian sentiments hopes for a world without strategic competition and superpowers.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @Sinotibetan

    Sadly an idealistic notion.
    Competition and quest for supremacy is part of being human.

  252. @Vishnugupta
    In the present world it would be foolhardy for Russia to scale back its relations with China.

    However,in the next 5-10 years as China learns the ropes in the precious few areas where Russia is still technically superior Hypersonic missiles,Jet Engines,Nuclear Submarines,Wide body aircraft.Russia will be reduced to a supplier of resources to China.This is already 80%+ of its exports to China.

    Also if I am not mistaken despite the supposed border settlement China has not permanently waived its demand for return of formerly Qing lands such as Vladivostok (Haishenwai).IIRC there was quite a stir on Chinese social media when the Russian embassy celebrated its founding last year.

    So it may make sense for Russia to not completely close its options.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @Daniel Chieh, @reiner Tor, @showmethereal

    “Also if I am not mistaken despite the supposed border settlement China has not permanently waived its demand for return of formerly Qing lands such as Vladivostok (Haishenwai).IIRC there was quite a stir on Chinese social media when the Russian embassy celebrated its founding last year.”

    Judging by what people say on social media is the absolute worst way to judge government thinking. There are some on social media who think China should revenge Japan and take back Taiwan militarily – yesterday…. Unlike those two issues – no China has no claims left at Vladivostok. Those are exactly the rumors the Russian ambassador – and Putin last week – are talking about. Those are CIA/MI6 psyops

    • Thanks: Vishnugupta
  253. @DNS
    @Felix Keverich


    Russian arms exports to India declined precipitously as India switches to Western weapons.
     
    The proportion of imports from Russia has gone down since 10-15 years ago but in absolute terms the amount has been larger than before, due to an increased defence budget. Add to this the fact that India has resisted US pressure to not buy the S-400 battery. I suppose this is just to diversify imports and not be reliant on one single source, especially as India suspects Russia may side with China or aid it passively by not selling weapons to India in the case of any future conflict, although this is unlikely IMO.

    American weapons purchases also come with a lot of strings attached, as Pakistan knows, so Russia will remain India's main weapons provider.

    India is world’s second-largest arms importer


    Russia accounted for 58% of Indian arms imports in 2014–18, compared with 76% in 2009-13. Israel, the U.S. and France all increased their arms exports to India in 2014-18. However, the Russian share in Indian imports is likely to go up sharply during the next five-year period as India signed several big-ticket deals recently, and more are in the pipeline. These include S-400 air defence systems, four stealth frigates, AK-203 assault rifles, a second nuclear attack submarine on lease, and deals for Kamov-226T utility helicopters, Mi-17 helicopters and short-range air defence systems. The report noted that despite the long-standing conflict between India and Pakistan, arms imports decreased for both countries in 2014-18 compared with 2009-13.

     

    On a side note, it seems Russia halted sales of the S-400 to China, perhaps because unlike the Indians, the Chinese are competent enough to reverse-engineer it.

    Replies: @showmethereal

    “On a side note, it seems Russia halted sales of the S-400 to China, perhaps because unlike the Indians, the Chinese are competent enough to reverse-engineer it.”

    Absolutely fake news propagated by western and Indian news. The S400’s are already active in China. Facing Taiwan and facing Japan. Fake news is so silly. Aside from the fact it was public news when China began testing the S400’s (and Russia was pleased when they announced the results) – it would be silly that Russia would stop the sale of S400’s and then Putin make the public declaration Russia is helping China develop an early warning system that only Russia and the US currently have.

    Now why Russia sold them to two faced Turkey I don’t know. I wouldn’t be surprised if Turkey didn’t give the US access to the system. I guess Russia is that confident.

  254. @Mr. Hack
    @AP

    I think that when you boil it all down, the real source of all perceived "antagonism" towards Russia from Ukraine was when a majority of its citizens opted for a European orientation for their country, rather than for Putin sponsored Eurasian projects. Are you suggesting that the majority of Ukrainians made a wrong choice?

    Replies: @AP

    Ukraine is in a rather different position than Georgia.

    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @AP

    Perhaps, it's just the other way around? :-)

  255. @Yellowface Anon
    Any talk of US-Chinese or US-Russia rivalry is ultimately nonsense. Just look at the elites of the US, the EU, Russia, and finally the CCP. They are always self-interested, and most extremely at the expense of the masses. What's the use of EU being a superpower when much of the helots will own nothing? China when most of the youth are lying down? India when little of the benefits drip down to Dalits?

    My lingering libertarian sentiments hopes for a world without strategic competition and superpowers.

    Replies: @Sinotibetan, @Sinotibetan

    All elites put their self-interest first. That’s what elites do.
    I don’t think the rivalries are fake. These are elites vs elites. However, since elites put self interest first, there will be ‘inconsistencies’ in their rivalries – especially when self interests of sparring elites converge. Change a regime, you change the elites but this very human trait of elite selfishness and rivalries continue with new faces. It will never end unless humanity ends.
    As for the EU, the constituent countries are generally USA vassals which occasionally squeak against the diktats of Washington, the global top dog elites. That’s about all you can expect from them.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Sinotibetan

    True. But I'm seeing the Anglosphere and the EU as two poles of the same liberal world, having a dialectal relationship with each other.

  256. @Yellowface Anon
    @Boomthorkell

    Based and MADpilled. But never as good as what the WEF is proposing.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    Damn, if this were PCM, I’d finally get a based and pilled point!

    THe WEF is almost worse than a catastrophic war to me. The smug-fuckery of an elitist purge and slow roll enslavement of everyone else is grating.

    Here’s hoping someone upends the table with free energy and easy space travel.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Boomthorkell

    Free energy is already here but consistently suppressed (if you ask some other folk).

    You don't need to quit the Earth trying to escape from the WEF.

    (But no, don't advocate for Social Darwinist total wars of annihilation. You are no different from Schwab)

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    , @Bashibuzuk
    @Boomthorkell


    Here’s hoping someone upends the table with free energy and easy space travel.
     
    This might actually be the reason for their actions: enforce the radical control before the technology shift has made the current elites irrelevant. Prevent the technology from shifting to keep the current elites at the helm. Once we have all the Solar System to hide from them, how would they enforce their rules? They need to keep technology developments under tight control so we never break out as a species. Then they follow with the panem et circences UBI / VR depopulation program and keep the biosphere, the technology and the Solar System resources for their offspring. They will be (demi)gods, we will be gone.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad, @Boomthorkell

  257. @Svevlad
    @Boomthorkell

    Finally someone gets it. The incessant attempts to minimize suffering, have just instead dropped our standards of what suffering is to such low levels, that a good chunk of the developed world's population is literally mentally ill. Anxiety, depression, and so on and so forth.

    Most people just don't feel threatened anymore. A massive, constant Sword of Damocles over their heads that is far more tangible and threatening in meatspace than getting cancelled on social media might reset their brains a bit.

    Otherwise, every subsequent generation which matures in the current social system will become increasingly neurotic and passive aggressive, and at a certain point something very, very bad will happen when it collapses.

    You notice today, that everyone keeps making "non-actionable" statements. As in, they just state some fact, in a very condescending, passive-aggressive manner, but you know that it stems from some... malicious intent.

    Example: I've recently encountered a post on a certain social network, that said "Greeks are half-gypsies who only have gyros and the sea." Note that it was far more condescending, too. This statement has nothing to do with anything. What does it mean? What about it? What is the point, my man? It clearly isn't meant to be a joke, nor is it a sarcastic reply to anything, it just is.

    We get to the non-actionable part. If this is so, and implied to be bad, then why aren't you calling for anything to be done about it? Maybe you secretly are wishing for their destruction, but don't want to admit it, which then just makes you a bad liar. If you don't, then why post it in the first place?

    I just want people to actually be goddamn honest and blatant with what they want, triple so on the internet where everyone is basically anonymous.

    There's a big pressure in the machine, and I simply say it's better to release it catastrophically now with absolutely unspeakable amounts of suffering and destruction, rather than keep it building up and just blowing up the thing altogether.

    After all, chucking your civilization back to the bronze age for more than a century because your soft, oversensitive and stress threshold reducing idiocy made everyone in a totally neurotic anxious mentally ill mess incapable of maintaining civilization is the peak of retardation, and should be punished accordingly, as Anatoly says.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    Ha ha ha, beautiful. I am happy to be a brother with you on this. I definitely prefer people to grow and be happy. I mean, civilization has given me so many fun things to read and see. Nonetheless, all the damn issues you’ve mentioned are both annoying and dangerous. A new perspective, one possibly brought on by immense and inescapable horror and suffering might be a real improvement, and absolutely better than the world just dying!

    Nukes for every country that can make them, and one day, every person a plasma gun and flying saucer.

    Interesting point on the non-actionable manner of speaking. I definitely agree that the world, and internet especially, would be better if people were straightforward and honest in what they are saying and believing. I mean, part of our civilization’s crippling issues is its continuous and blatant lying about its own desires and actions.

    Worthy punishment indeed. I think it’s good Russia and China are trying to find a new way forward. Personally though, I think our only hope as a race is leaving the planet. Once we’re on the frontier again, people will be exposed to all kinds of exciting Damocles Swords, they’ll hardly have the chance to be neurotic, or more importantly, everyone can always choose to leave their presence for SOMEWHERE ELSE. Finally, every person will be able to be where they will prosper most, or at least, most want to be.

  258. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Boomthorkell

    Are you sure you don't just want to watch the world burn?

    Replies: @Boomthorkell, @Daniel Chieh

    Ha ha, I had a student once tell me “Mr. —–, don’t you just want to see the world burn sometimes?”

    I told her that in mes of chaos, sometimes you’re the 12-year old who becomes Shah, but mostly you’re the peasant who watches raiders kill your father, rape your mother, and draft your brother, so keep that in mind.

    Lol, so, I’m flexible, but ultimately I enjoy the things produced by it and the people in it too much to want that.

    Np, I’m just obsessed with justice and principles enough that at times I prefer honest extermination to the extended suffering and corruption brought about by the formless manthings who serve their equally formless masters.

    Only at times though.

    Nonetheless, my own country and peoples would have been blessed to have only had a bloody, disastrous, awful, brutal conflict that ravaged their homes and bodies, and cleansed their souls, rather than the sick corruption and waste and terror brought about by its endless “conflicts.” If our wars could only ever be remembered as wars of cities reduced to ash and ruined lives on both sides, CNN, Fox and the rest would have a lot harder time convincing the survivors about how important it is a ship is sent to patrol the South China Sea.

    Then again…sometimes exterminatus and firestorms are charming. One should never wish for evil upon anyone else, though.

  259. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Boomthorkell

    Are you sure you don't just want to watch the world burn?

    Replies: @Boomthorkell, @Daniel Chieh

    Fire can be very pretty.

  260. Now for a powerfull take why it would be stupid for Russia to become “western”:

    Essentially, the west currently runs somewhat akin to a Ponzi scheme. US elites exploit German Elites, German Elites exploit Polish Elites, and any non Elite is pretty drat close to the bottom.

    If Russia would join, the Russian elites would be at the bottom of the elite hierarchy, so they would not get to exploit other Elites, and they would have to share the exploitation of the Russian non Elites with non Russian Elites, this would increase the parasite load on the non Elites.

    That is frankly a bad deal, both for Russian Elites and for Russian non Elites (local kleptocrats reinvest at least somewhat into the local economy, especially if sanctions make their investments in the non local economy risky, so to be frank, US sanctions increase the desireability of Russian Elites for the Russian population, since they are now less likely to siphon funds off to other countries).

    The fix here for the west is to get back to a business modell that is more sustainable then being a ponzi scheme.

    There is also the frequent misstatement that Russia is “antidemocratic”. No, it is ademocratic in that its elite do not give the slightest fuck whatsorever about the government form of other countries. If a country is a dickocracy (ruled by whoever has the largest dick), all that would change from Russias pov. is that Russian penis enlargement spam adverts would attain a strategic dimension.

    As far as Democracy in Russia is concerned, yes, it exists because:
    1: It provides for relatively orderly transfers of power.
    2: It provides for pathways of intergrating parts of the opposition into the power structure, if the power base of these opposition is sufficiently large (KPRF and LDPR basically).
    3: It provides for reasonably staked intelligence checks for leadership cadres. Like, if you fail to win a local election as a United Russia candidate, despite having a massive superiority in terms of adminsitrative resources, your career stalls forever right here as you have publically failed the intelligence check to proceed further. Better to lose to KPRF and LDPR locally then to promote some Chinovik far above his capabilities and have him lose to actual enemies of the Russian state at a more important position. The intelligence test function of elections in Russia is quite underrated.
    Alternatively, if someone wins against United Russia, and the United Russia candidate was not regarded as a total moron, it can work as a talent spotting (and then yoinking that talent away from KPRF or LDPR) system.
    4: It provides relatively frequent ways of gauging the interests and moods of the population at large.

    All of these traits are fairly desireable for the high state.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Mightypeon


    ...west currently runs somewhat akin to a Ponzi scheme. US elites exploit German Elites, German Elites exploit Polish Elites
     
    Ponzi schemes are not linear, they allow for some variance. But you are basically right.

    Today a key unanswered question is whether any other collection of countries could create their own functioning Ponzi scheme. Since our hunter-gatherer years all wealth is based on having successful Ponzi schemes: wealth requires "faith", the concept of "assets", and some sort of hierarchy.

    We could end up in an unfortunate situation where the Western Ponzi scheme collapses without any new schemes appearing for a while - in the past we refer to it as Dark Ages. It has happened many times and is usually not that great: pure force, pure localism, little wealth (well, you can play with small pieces of gold if you are lucky.)

    In order to go on, the Western Ponzi scheme needs a continuous expansion: globalism and more migrants coming in. That's why around 2015-17 the Western elites were seized by a hysterical fear of populism - halting the global expansion would be fatal: migrants are not a side issue, they are what keeps the system going. Corona was used (or maybe even introduced) to stop the disintegration. But it will have other, unanticipated consequences.

    I am not sure how this will play out, the elites are playing for time, but the status quo ante will not be recreated. Look at the bright side: we are living in an exciting era.

    , @Bashibuzuk
    @Mightypeon

    This is a great comment overall, I would just notice that when your the food in the elite food chain, that is when you're tax paying middle class, then you don't give two f*cks whether your exploited by corrupt CCP, EU, US or RusFed elites. Same sh*t is same: "Красные приходят-грабят, белые приходят-грабят..."

    Despite the "muh Western sanctions " the total outflow of moneys from RusFed last year was US 68 Bln. This year it was 48 Bln in May IIRC (I am too lazy to check the exact numbers on teh internets right now). And that's what we could read about, imagine what we don't know.

    So yeah, one shouldn't underestimate the smarts of RusFed "Crooks & Thieves".

  261. @AP
    @Mr. Hack

    Ukraine is in a rather different position than Georgia.

    Replies: @Mr. Hack

    Perhaps, it’s just the other way around? 🙂

  262. @Sinotibetan
    @Yellowface Anon

    All elites put their self-interest first. That's what elites do.
    I don't think the rivalries are fake. These are elites vs elites. However, since elites put self interest first, there will be 'inconsistencies' in their rivalries - especially when self interests of sparring elites converge. Change a regime, you change the elites but this very human trait of elite selfishness and rivalries continue with new faces. It will never end unless humanity ends.
    As for the EU, the constituent countries are generally USA vassals which occasionally squeak against the diktats of Washington, the global top dog elites. That's about all you can expect from them.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    True. But I’m seeing the Anglosphere and the EU as two poles of the same liberal world, having a dialectal relationship with each other.

  263. @Boomthorkell
    @Yellowface Anon

    Damn, if this were PCM, I'd finally get a based and pilled point!

    THe WEF is almost worse than a catastrophic war to me. The smug-fuckery of an elitist purge and slow roll enslavement of everyone else is grating.

    Here's hoping someone upends the table with free energy and easy space travel.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Bashibuzuk

    Free energy is already here but consistently suppressed (if you ask some other folk).

    You don’t need to quit the Earth trying to escape from the WEF.

    (But no, don’t advocate for Social Darwinist total wars of annihilation. You are no different from Schwab)

    • Replies: @Boomthorkell
    @Yellowface Anon

    Oh yes, it is. I just mean in a mass available form.

    Oh, no no no, this is more so all of humanity can be safe, having fun spreading across the stars. A lot of growth to be done in soul and capacity that way.

    Well, wars of annihilation aren't preferred. They just beat the lame and unfair Hell of all these small conflicts.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

  264. @Beckow
    @AP


    ...So overall, American Jews are opposed to the Russian state.
     
    One additional group are American Jews who went back in the 90's to get rich of Russia. They knew the language, had connections, it was a free-for-all. Some made money, but many more wanted to. In a weird coitus-interruptus they were unceremoniously sent home by Putin. There are few more vengeful people than wanna-be rich back in their dull American office jobs. The wealth was so close, so shiny, and then Putin ruined it.

    Some wrote books, some went into politics, many still hate with a passion that would burn a city. Many young activists are from families who experienced this. They felt entitled to the riches. You can see their disappointment in their obsession with Putin as "thief", "gangster", "richest man in the world" - it is their subconscious anger coming out. He took it from them, they will never forgive him, and neither will their offspring.

    Replies: @Dreadilk

    Someone needs to write a book on this.

    • Replies: @Beckow
    @Dreadilk

    Well, they do the publishing. That's why the average anglo bookstore on Russia is a collection of hysteria about how Putin and gang "stole everything" - meaning, he stopped the looting (only partially).

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

  265. @Dreadilk
    @Beckow

    Someone needs to write a book on this.

    Replies: @Beckow

    Well, they do the publishing. That’s why the average anglo bookstore on Russia is a collection of hysteria about how Putin and gang “stole everything” – meaning, he stopped the looting (only partially).

    • Replies: @Bashibuzuk
    @Beckow


    stopped the looting
     
    Ordered and redirected the looting. Here fixed for you...
  266. @Vishnugupta
    @Blinky Bill

    I don't think it has been nailed shut..incidentally China followed the classic east Asian model pioneered by Meiji Japan. In its take off phase it closely aligned with the UK then after it developed and could build its own arms from raw materials in Japan...Given how greviously the Anglos suffered in terms of casualties fighting an industrialized Japan you thought they would be wary of helping any politically independent East Asian country industrialize especially one 10 times the size of Japan but no..And this is the 1970s when you had people like Henry Kissinger running the show..what makes you think today's LGBT rights champions see what people like Kissinger could not?

    Plus paradoxically the impression of Indians being incompetent and servile lessens the threat perception..seriously who in any western country sees India as a future super power?That is good.

    In the 1960s we got nuke tech from US and Canada for free because no one thought we would have the gall to build nukes with technology donated by them under the atoms for peace program ..well in 1974 we did..


    This decade is crucial we play our cards right by 2030 we will be well on our way..

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Mulga Mumblebrain, @sudden death

    Western Powers had long been in post-colonial phase, whereas Japan-GB struggle in WWII was essentially colonial war, something like way earlier Dutch, French, Anglo wars in North America with Natives participating too. Modern China related struggle is still partially geoideological conflict with it at least nominally being left wing dictatorship to this day.

    At first sight there seems not to be much what superpowered democratic India, quietly strenghtened while being in a Western camp, potentially would want/could get geopolitically at extreme that somehow truly concern the democratic West? Get back Pakistan/Bangladesh? Even if so, why should it be existential matter for the West? Beyond it, what else – capture Nepal, Sri Lanka or something?

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @sudden death

    Eventually India will start to meddle in places like the Middle East or Africa, because as its economy grows, so will its appetite for raw materials and oil grow as well. Already they were interfering with American plans to isolate Iran, but India is still quite weak, so it never went beyond that. But a middle income India would be a different animal.

    , @DNS
    @sudden death


    Get back Pakistan/Bangladesh?
     
    There are some delusional types who dream of "Akhand Bharat" - undivided India, which is largely a fictional entity, but a real coup for India would be recapturing Pakistan-administered Kashmir, comprised of Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan.

    This is quite unlikely in my view as China now also has a stake in that region because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and if India were to retake it, it would cut off the link between China and Pakistan.
  267. Anatoly, you may be interested in the article below by Brian Cloughly, hard to stay updated on all laws and sanctions that are meant to force the rebellious nations …

    https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2021/06/15/cease-confrontation-with-china-concentrate-on-trade-and-global-development/

  268. @Mightypeon
    Now for a powerfull take why it would be stupid for Russia to become "western":

    Essentially, the west currently runs somewhat akin to a Ponzi scheme. US elites exploit German Elites, German Elites exploit Polish Elites, and any non Elite is pretty drat close to the bottom.

    If Russia would join, the Russian elites would be at the bottom of the elite hierarchy, so they would not get to exploit other Elites, and they would have to share the exploitation of the Russian non Elites with non Russian Elites, this would increase the parasite load on the non Elites.

    That is frankly a bad deal, both for Russian Elites and for Russian non Elites (local kleptocrats reinvest at least somewhat into the local economy, especially if sanctions make their investments in the non local economy risky, so to be frank, US sanctions increase the desireability of Russian Elites for the Russian population, since they are now less likely to siphon funds off to other countries).

    The fix here for the west is to get back to a business modell that is more sustainable then being a ponzi scheme.

    There is also the frequent misstatement that Russia is "antidemocratic". No, it is ademocratic in that its elite do not give the slightest fuck whatsorever about the government form of other countries. If a country is a dickocracy (ruled by whoever has the largest dick), all that would change from Russias pov. is that Russian penis enlargement spam adverts would attain a strategic dimension.

    As far as Democracy in Russia is concerned, yes, it exists because:
    1: It provides for relatively orderly transfers of power.
    2: It provides for pathways of intergrating parts of the opposition into the power structure, if the power base of these opposition is sufficiently large (KPRF and LDPR basically).
    3: It provides for reasonably staked intelligence checks for leadership cadres. Like, if you fail to win a local election as a United Russia candidate, despite having a massive superiority in terms of adminsitrative resources, your career stalls forever right here as you have publically failed the intelligence check to proceed further. Better to lose to KPRF and LDPR locally then to promote some Chinovik far above his capabilities and have him lose to actual enemies of the Russian state at a more important position. The intelligence test function of elections in Russia is quite underrated.
    Alternatively, if someone wins against United Russia, and the United Russia candidate was not regarded as a total moron, it can work as a talent spotting (and then yoinking that talent away from KPRF or LDPR) system.
    4: It provides relatively frequent ways of gauging the interests and moods of the population at large.

    All of these traits are fairly desireable for the high state.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Bashibuzuk

    …west currently runs somewhat akin to a Ponzi scheme. US elites exploit German Elites, German Elites exploit Polish Elites

    Ponzi schemes are not linear, they allow for some variance. But you are basically right.

    Today a key unanswered question is whether any other collection of countries could create their own functioning Ponzi scheme. Since our hunter-gatherer years all wealth is based on having successful Ponzi schemes: wealth requires “faith”, the concept of “assets”, and some sort of hierarchy.

    We could end up in an unfortunate situation where the Western Ponzi scheme collapses without any new schemes appearing for a while – in the past we refer to it as Dark Ages. It has happened many times and is usually not that great: pure force, pure localism, little wealth (well, you can play with small pieces of gold if you are lucky.)

    In order to go on, the Western Ponzi scheme needs a continuous expansion: globalism and more migrants coming in. That’s why around 2015-17 the Western elites were seized by a hysterical fear of populism – halting the global expansion would be fatal: migrants are not a side issue, they are what keeps the system going. Corona was used (or maybe even introduced) to stop the disintegration. But it will have other, unanticipated consequences.

    I am not sure how this will play out, the elites are playing for time, but the status quo ante will not be recreated. Look at the bright side: we are living in an exciting era.

  269. @china-russia-all-the-way
    @AP

    To keep the analysis from becoming unwieldy I'll focus on Eurasia.

    The China-Russia Entente is in a very good position to hold sway over Eurasia. The Entente jointly holds overwhelming influence over Central Asia. Pakistan, North Korea, and Burma are allies of China. Most of Southeast Asia tilts toward China. With the help of Russia, even Vietnam might be neutral. South Korea has become conspicuously silent in international discussions over controversies related to China.

    The most consequential relationship for the Entente could be with Iran. China signed a framework with Iran for investment in oil and gas and military ties. Russia provided a $5 billion loan to Iran in 2019. The potential for substantial support for Iran is a major worry in Israeli strategic thinking. Netanyahu's Mossad chief recently retired. In his outgoing speech, he made remarks highly critical of American confrontation against China.


    Recently retired Mossad chief Yossi Cohen expressed skepticism over Washington’s increasingly tough approach to China on Monday, declaring that he did not understand what the United States was hoping to accomplish by challenging Beijing.

    During a lecture at Bar-Ilan University, where he was awarded an honorary degree, the former Israeli spymaster questioned why the United States is pushing for an investigation into China’s possible role in the spread of the coronavirus.

    As first reported on Israeli news website Walla, he declared: "I do not understand what the Americans want from China. If anyone understands, they should explain it to me. China isn’t against us and is not our enemy."
     
    https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/ex-mossad-chief-says-he-doesn-t-understand-u-s-antagonism-toward-china-1.9885569

    I would speculate Cohen is very concerned about China's relationship with Iran in strengthening Iran's capabilities and economic resilience and the opportunity a Eurasian war would present to Iran. If Iran believes it is likely to eventually be attacked by the US, then Iran calculates that it should first attack US military bases in the Middle East if there is an opportunity. If there is a war over Taiwan or Ukraine or both, Iran would seize the opportunity to go to war. The alternative is to suffer under economic sanctions for several years, grow weaker, and wait to get attacked. The level of Chinese support for Iran will also become tied to the level of support by the US for Taiwan. It would be a nightmare scenario for Israel if Taiwan gets advanced weapons and then China gives long-range missile technology to Iran.

    There is an emerging alliance system in Eurasia led by China and Russia. Iran is standing in the wings waiting to launch the war according to its schedule. These are very formidable dynamics on the side of China and Russia.

    Replies: @AP, @Showmethereal

    Great points. Mossad knows China is no enemy of anyone. China wants to do what it did for centuries – trade with the outside world and be left alone to be China. The Saudis made the smae calculus as Israel. In signing that framework the Chinese FM said Iran was “not like some other cou ntries who change their mind after a phone call”. My presumption was maybe he was talking about Israel because under US pressure they recently began slowing the scope of the projects they allowed Chinese companies to be invested in. But I cant say for certain.

    The calculus with Israel and Russia i think is different because of Russia and Turkish relations. That is a complex labyrinth

  270. @Mulga Mumblebrain
    @Radicalcenter

    The Holy Grail for genocidal racists like you is to pry Russia and China apart, replace Putin with a New Yeltsin, then launch your beloved Great Clash of Races and Civilizations genocide against China. I hope you lose, of course, but Evil is very strong in our species, and if your villainous type prevail, humanity will end.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    Ah, yes, the other problem I have with the modernite.

    Acting like someone supports something, when they simply make an observation.

    Remember: everything always sets itself into place in the end.

  271. @Sinotibetan
    @Sinotibetan

    I am a 'race realist', liberals will label me a bloody racist.
    Compare Malaysia and Singapore - Malay predominant vs Chinese predominant - Malay cultural mindset as policy vs Sinosphere mindset policy - a failing 3rd world country vs 1st world island in a sea of 3rd worlders.
    I do believe different cultures, different ethnic groups(and genetic profiles) lead to different strengths and weaknesses. In terms of material success, Singaporean Chinese ethnoculture beats Malay ethnoculture.
    But in the long run, Singapore may fail too because they worship the West too much. Their young and technocrats buy those garbage ideas spewed by Western progressives/liberals like 'anti racism' (=Negrophilia, Muslim wahhabist ascendency), anti meritocracy, pro LBGTQ etc.
    Western liberals/progressives are a scourge to humanity that show no sign of abating.

    Replies: @Svevlad

    Every time I talked to someone from the “Malay world” (Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines etc) it was like I was talking to an alien. They think very weirdly, and are unusually stiff. Might be that their English sucks, but I doubt it.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Svevlad

    https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1405230375065030662?s=20

  272. @Anatoly Karlin
    @RadicalCenter

    If there was no US interference, it is almost certain that Belarus would be united with Russia by now, and a good chance that Ukraine, or Eastern Ukraine at any rate, would be so likewise or at least in a close association agreement.

    A Russia with effectively 200M people instead of 150M would not be vastly more powerful, but it would significantly improve its economies of scale.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell, @Aedib

    Hopefully this second round of protests and foreign interference in Belarus accelerates this process of unification.

  273. @Yellowface Anon
    @Boomthorkell

    Free energy is already here but consistently suppressed (if you ask some other folk).

    You don't need to quit the Earth trying to escape from the WEF.

    (But no, don't advocate for Social Darwinist total wars of annihilation. You are no different from Schwab)

    Replies: @Boomthorkell

    Oh yes, it is. I just mean in a mass available form.

    Oh, no no no, this is more so all of humanity can be safe, having fun spreading across the stars. A lot of growth to be done in soul and capacity that way.

    Well, wars of annihilation aren’t preferred. They just beat the lame and unfair Hell of all these small conflicts.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Boomthorkell

    Our future isn't to gaze at the stars, but looking down to the earth. The soil, rather than Space.

    Our species has failed (set up to fail if you believe in reptilians) the Great Filter if the best we can manage is to produce a elite that is intent to eliminate the rest. We deserve to be trapped on Earth and dying off slowly. (That is, if you don't believe in transcendental realities and you're a pure materialist)

    Replies: @Svevlad, @Boomthorkell

  274. May I randomly add how fucking boss Sabaton are?

    Cheers, Mightypeon

    • Replies: @AltanBakshi
    @Mightypeon

    Epaulettes or shoulder boards in the Red Army officer's uniform in 1941? Weak!

  275. @Vishnugupta
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Natsec plus the fact that Indian customers has the lowest data costs in the world and Indian telecom companies are building their 5G networks using the much more cost effective Open RAN architecture.

    https://www.lightreading.com/looking-ahead-in-india-5g-open-ran-and-fiberization/d/d-id/766632

    Plus we have our domestic telecom equipment companies that we would like to see scale up and become our own Huawei in 10-15 years.

    https://www.tejasnetworks.com/

    Replies: @Boomthorkell, @Triteleia Laxa

    I should really go back there again. I need to see the South more.

    It’s really an amazing country.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
  276. @AP
    @china-russia-all-the-way

    The key for the West would be to contain Eurasia (basically - Russia, China, Central Asia, NK, Iran) and to prevent further alliances such as with India, Turkey, Vietnam/Philippines/Indonesia, etc. If this is done, places further afield such as Africa and Latin America would be choked off.

    Eurasia can survive autonomously but I suspect it would fall behind, as during the Cold War, even without the poverty-inducing effects of communism.

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @showmethereal

    “The key for the West would be to contain Eurasia (basically – Russia, China, Central Asia, NK, Iran) and to prevent further alliances such as with India, Turkey, Vietnam/Philippines/Indonesia, etc. If this is done, places further afield such as Africa and Latin America would be choked off”

    Well see that’s the problem… too many westerners betray your true motivations… your only goal is to dominate the rest of the globe. other groups of people don’t necessarily have that same “Zero sum mentality”. You reap what you sow…

  277. @Vishnugupta
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Natsec plus the fact that Indian customers has the lowest data costs in the world and Indian telecom companies are building their 5G networks using the much more cost effective Open RAN architecture.

    https://www.lightreading.com/looking-ahead-in-india-5g-open-ran-and-fiberization/d/d-id/766632

    Plus we have our domestic telecom equipment companies that we would like to see scale up and become our own Huawei in 10-15 years.

    https://www.tejasnetworks.com/

    Replies: @Boomthorkell, @Triteleia Laxa

    I like India so much. Rich Indians, when they’re not being show offs, are such great company. I also love the food, enjoy the philosophy, aesthetic and history. I see a lot of Hindu symbolism.

    Modern economics are not zero sum. Nor is technological progress. India’s rise would be everyone’s gain. I look forward to it shining for decades ahead. The world will be a pretty incredible place with a full developed South Asia, East Asia, Europe, Americas and Middle East.

    I have a weird thing against Gandhi though, I find his historical character to be creepy and joyless.

  278. @Anatoly Karlin
    @RadicalCenter

    If there was no US interference, it is almost certain that Belarus would be united with Russia by now, and a good chance that Ukraine, or Eastern Ukraine at any rate, would be so likewise or at least in a close association agreement.

    A Russia with effectively 200M people instead of 150M would not be vastly more powerful, but it would significantly improve its economies of scale.

    Replies: @Boomthorkell, @Aedib

    I don’t see Putler on hurry to take Belarus. On the contrary, he seems to be taking the other way.

  279. @sudden death
    @Vishnugupta

    Western Powers had long been in post-colonial phase, whereas Japan-GB struggle in WWII was essentially colonial war, something like way earlier Dutch, French, Anglo wars in North America with Natives participating too. Modern China related struggle is still partially geoideological conflict with it at least nominally being left wing dictatorship to this day.

    At first sight there seems not to be much what superpowered democratic India, quietly strenghtened while being in a Western camp, potentially would want/could get geopolitically at extreme that somehow truly concern the democratic West? Get back Pakistan/Bangladesh? Even if so, why should it be existential matter for the West? Beyond it, what else - capture Nepal, Sri Lanka or something?

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @DNS

    Eventually India will start to meddle in places like the Middle East or Africa, because as its economy grows, so will its appetite for raw materials and oil grow as well. Already they were interfering with American plans to isolate Iran, but India is still quite weak, so it never went beyond that. But a middle income India would be a different animal.

  280. @Svevlad
    @Yellowface Anon


    You’ll need generations of eugenics and educational improvement
     
    You underestimate the power of selection. India has so many people they can "grind down" the lowest intelligence tiers and not even feel it.

    They're probably just waiting for the situation to crystalize for maximum efficiency. After this, expect a lot more "chemical spills" and "accidents" that somehow always lead to the absolute poorest becoming sterile.

    And this is very plausible, the Indian elites are notoriously disdainful of their genetically challenged brethren

    Replies: @showmethereal

    As per usual… The wealthiest Indian states have the lowest fertility (some are below replacement already) and the poorest have the highest…

  281. @AP
    @AltanBakshi


    Pakistan is kind of useless. But it’s alliance with China contributes to Indian ill-will towards China.

    Keeping India contained to subcontinent and land connection to Iran are not useless.
     
    Pakistan would be useful for China, if China were in conflict with Russia and if Iran were on China's side. In this case yes, Pakistan would be a link to Iran. It would also be useful in conflict with Russia over influence in Central Asia.

    But since China and Russia are friends, China can access Iran through Central Asia. It does not need Pakistan for that.

    It could be treated as the EU, as a mildly subservient junior partner with some independence, not completely subservient. Problems with Pakistan and China would suggest an alignment with the West.

    Indian elites are very conscious about the sovereignty of their country, just like Putin’s Russia.

     

    EU isn't exactly a non-sovereign puppet of the USA. As someone else noted, Indians have entered the Western elites. I'm not going to predict which way SE Asia and Turkey go, but 60/40 odds that India joins the West.

    Replies: @showmethereal, @Blinky Bill

    “Pakistan would be useful for China, if China were in conflict with Russia and if Iran were on China’s side. In this case yes, Pakistan would be a link to Iran. It would also be useful in conflict with Russia over influence in Central Asia.

    But since China and Russia are friends, China can access Iran through Central Asia. It does not need Pakistan for that.”

    You misjudge the situation. The facts on the ground are that Pakistan and Iran are drawing closer together much to the chagrin of Saudi Arabia – who used to view Pakistan as a vassal. The reason for this is China and Russia are both encouraging them to do so – and they both realize regional integration benefits them both.

    • Agree: Blinky Bill, AltanBakshi
  282. @Triteleia Laxa
    @Showmethereal


    The US has no friends
     
    What defines an international relationship as a friendship?

    The closest the US has to “partners” is the 5 Eyes Anglo Saxon spy group. And even then only England is barely above vassal status.
     
    In which specific and concrete ways does the UK come close to fitting the definition of "vassal"?

    Replies: @Vishnugupta, @showmethereal

    “a person or country in a subordinate position to another.”

    Since the end of WW2 that is basically what the UK has been to the US. The end of the pound sterling after the Suez Crisis pretty much sealed it. That’s why the US refused to help. And let’s be serious… In the 5 Eyes gang the US is obviously the one who calls the shots. the UK is deputy and the other three are the sometimes officers. New Zealand though does attempt to keep as much autonomy as possible.

    • Replies: @Triteleia Laxa
    @showmethereal

    You seem to be only describing friendship between countries that are unequal in power. Britain refused the Vietnam War. The US refused Suez. Both were probably sensible to do so.

    If we were being honest, you would admit you have absolutely no idea or insight into how 5 eyes functions.

    Replies: @showmethereal

  283. @showmethereal
    @Triteleia Laxa

    "a person or country in a subordinate position to another."

    Since the end of WW2 that is basically what the UK has been to the US. The end of the pound sterling after the Suez Crisis pretty much sealed it. That's why the US refused to help. And let's be serious... In the 5 Eyes gang the US is obviously the one who calls the shots. the UK is deputy and the other three are the sometimes officers. New Zealand though does attempt to keep as much autonomy as possible.

    Replies: @Triteleia Laxa

    You seem to be only describing friendship between countries that are unequal in power. Britain refused the Vietnam War. The US refused Suez. Both were probably sensible to do so.

    If we were being honest, you would admit you have absolutely no idea or insight into how 5 eyes functions.

    • Replies: @showmethereal
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Ok genius so please come up with a story to explain that all the 5 Eyes are on the same level. Try hard. then explain what the purpose of the new Atlantic Charter is all about.

    If you were honest you would admit you have no clue about what happened with the pound sterling being replaced by the dollar and what Suez was all about.

  284. Bashibuzuk says:
    @Boomthorkell
    @Yellowface Anon

    Damn, if this were PCM, I'd finally get a based and pilled point!

    THe WEF is almost worse than a catastrophic war to me. The smug-fuckery of an elitist purge and slow roll enslavement of everyone else is grating.

    Here's hoping someone upends the table with free energy and easy space travel.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Bashibuzuk

    Here’s hoping someone upends the table with free energy and easy space travel.

    This might actually be the reason for their actions: enforce the radical control before the technology shift has made the current elites irrelevant. Prevent the technology from shifting to keep the current elites at the helm. Once we have all the Solar System to hide from them, how would they enforce their rules? They need to keep technology developments under tight control so we never break out as a species. Then they follow with the panem et circences UBI / VR depopulation program and keep the biosphere, the technology and the Solar System resources for their offspring. They will be (demi)gods, we will be gone.

    • Replies: @Yellowface Anon
    @Bashibuzuk

    This is why we need to reject Great Power competition, whoever doing it and completely, even large-scale political centralization - it will always lead to this or other ways the elites screwing the others on a large scale.

    , @Svevlad
    @Bashibuzuk

    This implies they have the competence to succeed.

    I doubt they will. After all, sixth proof of God.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

    , @Boomthorkell
    @Bashibuzuk

    Quite possible.

    Here's hoping it all pans out in a way that makes the universe better, and certain schemers very unhappy. An evil project is best when it blows up in someone's face and makes the world a better place.

    OR WE ALL BECOME DEMI-GODS! (Through a variety of exciting methods!)

  285. Bashibuzuk says:
    @Mightypeon
    Now for a powerfull take why it would be stupid for Russia to become "western":

    Essentially, the west currently runs somewhat akin to a Ponzi scheme. US elites exploit German Elites, German Elites exploit Polish Elites, and any non Elite is pretty drat close to the bottom.

    If Russia would join, the Russian elites would be at the bottom of the elite hierarchy, so they would not get to exploit other Elites, and they would have to share the exploitation of the Russian non Elites with non Russian Elites, this would increase the parasite load on the non Elites.

    That is frankly a bad deal, both for Russian Elites and for Russian non Elites (local kleptocrats reinvest at least somewhat into the local economy, especially if sanctions make their investments in the non local economy risky, so to be frank, US sanctions increase the desireability of Russian Elites for the Russian population, since they are now less likely to siphon funds off to other countries).

    The fix here for the west is to get back to a business modell that is more sustainable then being a ponzi scheme.

    There is also the frequent misstatement that Russia is "antidemocratic". No, it is ademocratic in that its elite do not give the slightest fuck whatsorever about the government form of other countries. If a country is a dickocracy (ruled by whoever has the largest dick), all that would change from Russias pov. is that Russian penis enlargement spam adverts would attain a strategic dimension.

    As far as Democracy in Russia is concerned, yes, it exists because:
    1: It provides for relatively orderly transfers of power.
    2: It provides for pathways of intergrating parts of the opposition into the power structure, if the power base of these opposition is sufficiently large (KPRF and LDPR basically).
    3: It provides for reasonably staked intelligence checks for leadership cadres. Like, if you fail to win a local election as a United Russia candidate, despite having a massive superiority in terms of adminsitrative resources, your career stalls forever right here as you have publically failed the intelligence check to proceed further. Better to lose to KPRF and LDPR locally then to promote some Chinovik far above his capabilities and have him lose to actual enemies of the Russian state at a more important position. The intelligence test function of elections in Russia is quite underrated.
    Alternatively, if someone wins against United Russia, and the United Russia candidate was not regarded as a total moron, it can work as a talent spotting (and then yoinking that talent away from KPRF or LDPR) system.
    4: It provides relatively frequent ways of gauging the interests and moods of the population at large.

    All of these traits are fairly desireable for the high state.

    Replies: @Beckow, @Bashibuzuk

    This is a great comment overall, I would just notice that when your the food in the elite food chain, that is when you’re tax paying middle class, then you don’t give two f*cks whether your exploited by corrupt CCP, EU, US or RusFed elites. Same sh*t is same: “Красные приходят-грабят, белые приходят-грабят…”

    Despite the “muh Western sanctions ” the total outflow of moneys from RusFed last year was US 68 Bln. This year it was 48 Bln in May IIRC (I am too lazy to check the exact numbers on teh internets right now). And that’s what we could read about, imagine what we don’t know.

    So yeah, one shouldn’t underestimate the smarts of RusFed “Crooks & Thieves”.

  286. @Beckow
    @Dreadilk

    Well, they do the publishing. That's why the average anglo bookstore on Russia is a collection of hysteria about how Putin and gang "stole everything" - meaning, he stopped the looting (only partially).

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

    stopped the looting

    Ordered and redirected the looting. Here fixed for you…

  287. @Abelard Lindsey
    Its silly to believe that China will take over Siberia. They can't even maintain a population in Northeast China. I hear that all you see are old people when you visit the cities in Northeast China.

    Replies: @angmoh, @il_palazzo

    I am a guy from Europe living in Shenyang in North East China, working at a kindergarten chock full of small kids, living in a 2000 people gated community like most Chinese, wading through kids every day, while passing the kindergarten on the grounds on the way to work. My 4 km commute I make by bicycle past two elementary schools and two high schools and another kindergarten. I use the bicycle because at 8:00 in the morning, the streets are clogged up with cars of parents taking their kids to school. That is an 8 block radius I am talking about.

    But apart from that, only old people, yes

  288. DNS says:
    @sudden death
    @Vishnugupta

    Western Powers had long been in post-colonial phase, whereas Japan-GB struggle in WWII was essentially colonial war, something like way earlier Dutch, French, Anglo wars in North America with Natives participating too. Modern China related struggle is still partially geoideological conflict with it at least nominally being left wing dictatorship to this day.

    At first sight there seems not to be much what superpowered democratic India, quietly strenghtened while being in a Western camp, potentially would want/could get geopolitically at extreme that somehow truly concern the democratic West? Get back Pakistan/Bangladesh? Even if so, why should it be existential matter for the West? Beyond it, what else - capture Nepal, Sri Lanka or something?

    Replies: @reiner Tor, @DNS

    Get back Pakistan/Bangladesh?

    There are some delusional types who dream of “Akhand Bharat” – undivided India, which is largely a fictional entity, but a real coup for India would be recapturing Pakistan-administered Kashmir, comprised of Azad Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan.

    This is quite unlikely in my view as China now also has a stake in that region because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and if India were to retake it, it would cut off the link between China and Pakistan.

  289. @Svevlad
    @Sinotibetan

    Every time I talked to someone from the "Malay world" (Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines etc) it was like I was talking to an alien. They think very weirdly, and are unusually stiff. Might be that their English sucks, but I doubt it.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  290. @Anatoly Karlin
    @Triteleia Laxa

    Felix has a Jew obsession, but this isn't really accurate IMO either: https://www.unz.com/anepigone/nobody-does-russophobia-like-jews-do/

    https://www.unz.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/russia.png

    There are considerable numbers of "Russophile" or Russia-neutral Jews (almost entirely from a leftist or "anti-imperialist" perspective, people like Greenwald and Blumenthal and the late Stephen Cohen), and the Jewish Lobby in the US is understandably much more obsessed with Iran. But the average American Jew has neoliberal, normie type views that you see in places like /r/politics, highly hostile to Russia.

    Replies: @AP, @Blinky Bill

    • Replies: @Anatoly Karlin
    @Blinky Bill

    https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1405630521741234179

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    , @mal
    @Blinky Bill

    This argument from GDP is idiotic for a number of reasons, but even if you accept it at face value, it still makes little sense.

    So what if Russian GDP is about the same as Canada or Italy or whatever? Those countries are major global economies and trade participants. Does this mean you can insult Canadians and ignore their commercial and national interests? What about countries with GDP less than Canada, which is vast majority of the world? Just enslave them outright and rape their women, for they are weak in GDP?

    People making GDP arguments think they sound powerful, but in reality, they sound ugly.

    Replies: @Dreadilk

  291. @AP
    @AltanBakshi


    Pakistan is kind of useless. But it’s alliance with China contributes to Indian ill-will towards China.

    Keeping India contained to subcontinent and land connection to Iran are not useless.
     
    Pakistan would be useful for China, if China were in conflict with Russia and if Iran were on China's side. In this case yes, Pakistan would be a link to Iran. It would also be useful in conflict with Russia over influence in Central Asia.

    But since China and Russia are friends, China can access Iran through Central Asia. It does not need Pakistan for that.

    It could be treated as the EU, as a mildly subservient junior partner with some independence, not completely subservient. Problems with Pakistan and China would suggest an alignment with the West.

    Indian elites are very conscious about the sovereignty of their country, just like Putin’s Russia.

     

    EU isn't exactly a non-sovereign puppet of the USA. As someone else noted, Indians have entered the Western elites. I'm not going to predict which way SE Asia and Turkey go, but 60/40 odds that India joins the West.

    Replies: @showmethereal, @Blinky Bill


    [MORE]

    • Thanks: showmethereal
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1405714383456509957?s=20

    https://twitter.com/DmitriTrenin/status/1328605596480892928?s=20

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnCxYI5XUAMeP4R.jpg

    Replies: @AP

    , @AltanBakshi
    @Blinky Bill

    There is only Turkey left, if Turkey is persuaded to change camps permanently, Anti-American Eurasian super-fortress will be complete. Then we can just close US from Eurasian markets, and in the longer run USA will become as irrelevant internationally as late Qing China! Or even worse, for US has no equivalent of Chinaware, native manufacturing, only USD.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  292. @Blinky Bill
    @AP

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMOK4-IWoAAjVg3.jpg

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EycPUaOWYAIrPfF.jpg

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBLN__YUEAAZEVe.jpg

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @AltanBakshi

    • Replies: @AP
    @Blinky Bill

    This is exactly the sorts of thing that Russia and China need to do. The West meanwhile would need to keep SE and ME (other than Iran, a lost cause) firmly in their hands. If they do so, Chinese and Russian projects in Africa or South America can be dealt with.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

  293. @Blinky Bill
    @AP

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMOK4-IWoAAjVg3.jpg

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EycPUaOWYAIrPfF.jpg

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBLN__YUEAAZEVe.jpg

    Replies: @Blinky Bill, @AltanBakshi

    There is only Turkey left, if Turkey is persuaded to change camps permanently, Anti-American Eurasian super-fortress will be complete. Then we can just close US from Eurasian markets, and in the longer run USA will become as irrelevant internationally as late Qing China! Or even worse, for US has no equivalent of Chinaware, native manufacturing, only USD.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @AltanBakshi

    Russia shipped the new S-400 missile defense system to Turkey on the third anniversary of the failed military coup against Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    As rogue F-16 pilots bombed the parliament and presidential palace in Ankara, and Erdogan was nearly shot down on his flight back to Istanbul after evading capture at his coastal villa, Western governments held their breath, not daring to voice their hopes that the autocratic and anti-Western leader might be overthrown by a more convenient group of generals.

    When offered a vacuum left empty by Western leaders, Russian President Vladimir Putin was first in expressing his solidarity with Erdogan.

    It wasn’t an obvious move. Not only are Russia and Turkey historic rivals, but they were also on opposite sides in the Syrian civil war with Russia propping up the Assad regime and Turkey supporting a wide range of rebel groups. Eight months earlier, in November 2015, Turkey had shot down a Russian fighter jet on its border with Syria.

    But Erdogan’s uneasy relationship with Western leaders provided a golden opportunity for Russia to strengthen their relationship, and since the failed coup the two have grown closer.

    The supply of the S-400, despite repeated warnings and threats from the United States concerning the implications of a major NATO member fielding a key Russian weapons system, has sealed that relationship. At least for as long as Erdogan and Putin are in power.

    Turkey has promised that its new S-400 system will not be integrated into wider NATO air defense networks and will only be used to protect its territory from ballistic missiles. The leaders of NATO and the Pentagon are rightly suspicious that this will not be sufficient to prevent Russian intelligence officers — embedded with the team that will train Turkish personnel on the new system — from gaining crucial information. NATO’s southeastern approaches are now more vulnerable.

    U.S. President Donald Trump held back from announcing formal sanctions on Turkey. But it is almost inconceivable that the Turkish Air Force will receive any of the 30 F-35 stealth fighters it ordered (out of a total requirement of 120). The training flights of Turkish F-35 pilots have already been suspended in the United States.

    Lockheed Martin, the F-35’s manufacturer, has significant influence on Trump, but is likely to prefer losing the Turkish order rather than seeing its product’s unique capabilities squandered.

    The S-400 is the premier Russian anti-aircraft system the F-35 is designed to evade. If Turkey were to receive the aircraft now, it could develop tactics that would enable the S-400 to detect F-35s, giving the Russians valuable information and significantly degrading America’s strategic air power advantage.

    Losing the F-35 will deny Turkey’s air force an upgrade to fifth-generation technology. And while it could possibly buy stealth fighters from Russia or China, these are still under development, will not be available for export anytime soon and are unlikely to be as capable as the F-35.

    Until this weekend, there were still those in the Pentagon who hoped that the threat of withholding the jet would cause Turkey to hesitate and delay acceptance of the S-400. But Erdogan is not backing down.

    Turkey was always a relatively awkward NATO member: the least-democratic nation of the North Atlantic alliance long before Erdogan came along, and coming close to war with another member, Greece, a number of times. However, throughout the Cold War and beyond, Turkey remained a valuable partner in confronting the Soviet Union and, after its dissolution, contributed to many of the alliance’s operations. In recent years, though, Turkey was no longer seen as an ally of the West.

    Throughout most of the Syrian war, Turkey pursued its own separate agenda, arming jihadists and allowing Islamic State volunteers to pass through its territory. When the United States began bombing ISIS targets in 2014, Turkey refused to let its aircraft use the Incirlik air base.

    Since the failed military coup of July 2016, Erdogan has purged the armed forces of officers who worked with NATO — replacing them largely with anti-Western loyalists — and increased military coordination with Russia and Iran. His intelligence services have been led by pro-Iranian officials for years.

    There is no precedent for kicking a nation out of NATO, and no one is seriously contemplating doing that to Turkey. In raw numbers of personnel and equipment, it has the second-largest army in the organization (and subtracting U.S. units based outside of Europe and the Middle East, it has the largest). Turkey provides NATO with bases close to Russia, though these are less valuable in an era of satellite surveillance, global strike capabilities and long-endurance drones.

    President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that Turkey's central bank had agreed with China to increase an existing currency swap facility to US$6 billion from US$2.4 billion, in a move that could boost foreign reserves.

    Turkey's FX reserves plunged by 75per cent last year, raising concerns about a possible balance of payments crisis. The surprise announcement came as the Turkish president prepared to travel to Brussels for a NATO meeting.

    "We made a very important agreement recently with China, which is very important and one of our biggest trade partners," Erdogan said.

    "We previously had a US$2.4 billion swap deal. Now we have made a new deal for a further US$3.6 billion, raising the total to US$6 billion."

    The central bank's FX reserves were badly depleted by a 2019-2020 policy of state bank sales of some US$128 billion to support the beleaguered Turkish lira. Excluding swaps with state banks, the central bank's FX reserves are deeply negative, official data show.

    A year ago, Turkey appealed to the West for new swap funding but secured little. Interest rate hikes starting in September briefly eased economic pressure, though the lira touched a new low earlier this month.

    Last June the central bank said it had used its funding facility for Chinese yuan for the first time under the prior swap agreement with the People's Bank of China.

    Erdogan criticised those he said insisted Turkish reserves were falling and said the new deal with China "thwarted this game of theirs".

    Replies: @Mr. Hack, @LondonBob

  294. AP says:
    @Blinky Bill
    @Blinky Bill

    https://twitter.com/PDChina/status/1405714383456509957?s=20

    https://twitter.com/DmitriTrenin/status/1328605596480892928?s=20

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EnCxYI5XUAMeP4R.jpg

    Replies: @AP

    This is exactly the sorts of thing that Russia and China need to do. The West meanwhile would need to keep SE and ME (other than Iran, a lost cause) firmly in their hands. If they do so, Chinese and Russian projects in Africa or South America can be dealt with.

    • Replies: @reiner Tor
    @AP

    I think that overall it’s not realistic for the west to hang on to its third world dominance if China grows twice bigger economically than America. With a China twice the size of America in terms of GDP, it will be militarily stronger (even if Europe and Japan add considerable military strength, those will not be very well integrated and so it will be less than the sum of all parts), and it will be able to offer better deals to smaller and weaker countries. So the third world will inevitably have major pro-China countries. It could include much of Latin America, the Middle East, and of course much of Southeast Asia.

    It’s well known here that I don’t think a world war is completely out of the question. Within a decade even this will become unwinnable for the American led alliance, as many smaller American allies will be just knocked out early in the war and Russia and China together will likely enjoy nuclear escalation dominance.

    Replies: @songbird

  295. @Blinky Bill
    @Anatoly Karlin

    https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1405504250378178561?s=20

    Replies: @Anatoly Karlin, @mal

    • Agree: Blinky Bill, Dreadilk
    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Anatoly when are they going to invite you onto Fox News?

    https://twitter.com/RichardHanania/status/1405701785109491715?s=20

    I'm a huge fan of Richard Hanania, I'm glad his getting picked up by the major media organisation.

    You did great on Cross Talk, when was your last TV appearance?

    https://youtu.be/rY4aywyC0MM

  296. @AP
    @Blinky Bill

    This is exactly the sorts of thing that Russia and China need to do. The West meanwhile would need to keep SE and ME (other than Iran, a lost cause) firmly in their hands. If they do so, Chinese and Russian projects in Africa or South America can be dealt with.

    Replies: @reiner Tor

    I think that overall it’s not realistic for the west to hang on to its third world dominance if China grows twice bigger economically than America. With a China twice the size of America in terms of GDP, it will be militarily stronger (even if Europe and Japan add considerable military strength, those will not be very well integrated and so it will be less than the sum of all parts), and it will be able to offer better deals to smaller and weaker countries. So the third world will inevitably have major pro-China countries. It could include much of Latin America, the Middle East, and of course much of Southeast Asia.

    It’s well known here that I don’t think a world war is completely out of the question. Within a decade even this will become unwinnable for the American led alliance, as many smaller American allies will be just knocked out early in the war and Russia and China together will likely enjoy nuclear escalation dominance.

    • Agree: AltanBakshi
    • Replies: @songbird
    @reiner Tor

    The West seems committed to continuing payouts for its large, domestic, third-world pop.

    Perhaps, this in conjunction with open borders, and the Hollywood diversity apparatus, confers indirect status. Though, it seems to signify a smaller potential cap on foreign aid.

    Of course, if it all unwinds, and the payouts stop that may lead to negative perceptions. Development may also lead to greater media integration, allowing the antiracist ideology to gain a larger foothold in the third world and helping to sour relations with the West.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  297. @AltanBakshi
    @Blinky Bill

    There is only Turkey left, if Turkey is persuaded to change camps permanently, Anti-American Eurasian super-fortress will be complete. Then we can just close US from Eurasian markets, and in the longer run USA will become as irrelevant internationally as late Qing China! Or even worse, for US has no equivalent of Chinaware, native manufacturing, only USD.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    Russia shipped the new S-400 missile defense system to Turkey on the third anniversary of the failed military coup against Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

    As rogue F-16 pilots bombed the parliament and presidential palace in Ankara, and Erdogan was nearly shot down on his flight back to Istanbul after evading capture at his coastal villa, Western governments held their breath, not daring to voice their hopes that the autocratic and anti-Western leader might be overthrown by a more convenient group of generals.

    When offered a vacuum left empty by Western leaders, Russian President Vladimir Putin was first in expressing his solidarity with Erdogan.

    It wasn’t an obvious move. Not only are Russia and Turkey historic rivals, but they were also on opposite sides in the Syrian civil war with Russia propping up the Assad regime and Turkey supporting a wide range of rebel groups. Eight months earlier, in November 2015, Turkey had shot down a Russian fighter jet on its border with Syria.

    But Erdogan’s uneasy relationship with Western leaders provided a golden opportunity for Russia to strengthen their relationship, and since the failed coup the two have grown closer.

    The supply of the S-400, despite repeated warnings and threats from the United States concerning the implications of a major NATO member fielding a key Russian weapons system, has sealed that relationship. At least for as long as Erdogan and Putin are in power.

    Turkey has promised that its new S-400 system will not be integrated into wider NATO air defense networks and will only be used to protect its territory from ballistic missiles. The leaders of NATO and the Pentagon are rightly suspicious that this will not be sufficient to prevent Russian intelligence officers — embedded with the team that will train Turkish personnel on the new system — from gaining crucial information. NATO’s southeastern approaches are now more vulnerable.

    U.S. President Donald Trump held back from announcing formal sanctions on Turkey. But it is almost inconceivable that the Turkish Air Force will receive any of the 30 F-35 stealth fighters it ordered (out of a total requirement of 120). The training flights of Turkish F-35 pilots have already been suspended in the United States.

    Lockheed Martin, the F-35’s manufacturer, has significant influence on Trump, but is likely to prefer losing the Turkish order rather than seeing its product’s unique capabilities squandered.

    The S-400 is the premier Russian anti-aircraft system the F-35 is designed to evade. If Turkey were to receive the aircraft now, it could develop tactics that would enable the S-400 to detect F-35s, giving the Russians valuable information and significantly degrading America’s strategic air power advantage.

    Losing the F-35 will deny Turkey’s air force an upgrade to fifth-generation technology. And while it could possibly buy stealth fighters from Russia or China, these are still under development, will not be available for export anytime soon and are unlikely to be as capable as the F-35.

    Until this weekend, there were still those in the Pentagon who hoped that the threat of withholding the jet would cause Turkey to hesitate and delay acceptance of the S-400. But Erdogan is not backing down.

    Turkey was always a relatively awkward NATO member: the least-democratic nation of the North Atlantic alliance long before Erdogan came along, and coming close to war with another member, Greece, a number of times. However, throughout the Cold War and beyond, Turkey remained a valuable partner in confronting the Soviet Union and, after its dissolution, contributed to many of the alliance’s operations. In recent years, though, Turkey was no longer seen as an ally of the West.

    Throughout most of the Syrian war, Turkey pursued its own separate agenda, arming jihadists and allowing Islamic State volunteers to pass through its territory. When the United States began bombing ISIS targets in 2014, Turkey refused to let its aircraft use the Incirlik air base.

    Since the failed military coup of July 2016, Erdogan has purged the armed forces of officers who worked with NATO — replacing them largely with anti-Western loyalists — and increased military coordination with Russia and Iran. His intelligence services have been led by pro-Iranian officials for years.

    There is no precedent for kicking a nation out of NATO, and no one is seriously contemplating doing that to Turkey. In raw numbers of personnel and equipment, it has the second-largest army in the organization (and subtracting U.S. units based outside of Europe and the Middle East, it has the largest). Turkey provides NATO with bases close to Russia, though these are less valuable in an era of satellite surveillance, global strike capabilities and long-endurance drones.

    President Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that Turkey’s central bank had agreed with China to increase an existing currency swap facility to US$6 billion from US$2.4 billion, in a move that could boost foreign reserves.

    Turkey’s FX reserves plunged by 75per cent last year, raising concerns about a possible balance of payments crisis. The surprise announcement came as the Turkish president prepared to travel to Brussels for a NATO meeting.

    “We made a very important agreement recently with China, which is very important and one of our biggest trade partners,” Erdogan said.

    “We previously had a US$2.4 billion swap deal. Now we have made a new deal for a further US$3.6 billion, raising the total to US$6 billion.”

    The central bank’s FX reserves were badly depleted by a 2019-2020 policy of state bank sales of some US$128 billion to support the beleaguered Turkish lira. Excluding swaps with state banks, the central bank’s FX reserves are deeply negative, official data show.

    A year ago, Turkey appealed to the West for new swap funding but secured little. Interest rate hikes starting in September briefly eased economic pressure, though the lira touched a new low earlier this month.

    Last June the central bank said it had used its funding facility for Chinese yuan for the first time under the prior swap agreement with the People’s Bank of China.

    Erdogan criticised those he said insisted Turkish reserves were falling and said the new deal with China “thwarted this game of theirs”.

    • Thanks: AltanBakshi, Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @Mr. Hack
    @Blinky Bill

    Wow, what a wealth of information about Turkey that you've presented here. Most informative comment I've read here in a couple of days Keep on blinkin, Bill!

    , @LondonBob
    @Blinky Bill

    Turkey has thanked Vlad by firmly pivoting back to the US. Reality is that Turkey and Russia are largely at odds, sensible that the relationship not deteriorate but there are good reasons they have been natural enemies for so long, better to build long term relationships with Turkey's many neighbours who loathe the unstable Erdogan. Turkey and the US are allies still, whilst Erdogan has been conceded much from Syria, to Azerbaijan, to Libya by Russia.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk, @Blinky Bill

  298. @Blinky Bill
    @Radicalcenter

    https://twitter.com/roscosmos/status/1405137294076559364?s=20


    English


    http://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/n6465652/n6465653/c6812150/content.html

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

  299. @reiner Tor
    @AP

    I think that overall it’s not realistic for the west to hang on to its third world dominance if China grows twice bigger economically than America. With a China twice the size of America in terms of GDP, it will be militarily stronger (even if Europe and Japan add considerable military strength, those will not be very well integrated and so it will be less than the sum of all parts), and it will be able to offer better deals to smaller and weaker countries. So the third world will inevitably have major pro-China countries. It could include much of Latin America, the Middle East, and of course much of Southeast Asia.

    It’s well known here that I don’t think a world war is completely out of the question. Within a decade even this will become unwinnable for the American led alliance, as many smaller American allies will be just knocked out early in the war and Russia and China together will likely enjoy nuclear escalation dominance.

    Replies: @songbird

    The West seems committed to continuing payouts for its large, domestic, third-world pop.

    Perhaps, this in conjunction with open borders, and the Hollywood diversity apparatus, confers indirect status. Though, it seems to signify a smaller potential cap on foreign aid.

    Of course, if it all unwinds, and the payouts stop that may lead to negative perceptions. Development may also lead to greater media integration, allowing the antiracist ideology to gain a larger foothold in the third world and helping to sour relations with the West.

    • Replies: @Blinky Bill
    @songbird


    Nice to have you back, I hope all is well.

    This place never feels right, when one of the he regulars is missing!

    https://youtu.be/rS0VQOHX7lM?t=19

    Replies: @songbird

  300. @Bashibuzuk
    @Boomthorkell


    Here’s hoping someone upends the table with free energy and easy space travel.
     
    This might actually be the reason for their actions: enforce the radical control before the technology shift has made the current elites irrelevant. Prevent the technology from shifting to keep the current elites at the helm. Once we have all the Solar System to hide from them, how would they enforce their rules? They need to keep technology developments under tight control so we never break out as a species. Then they follow with the panem et circences UBI / VR depopulation program and keep the biosphere, the technology and the Solar System resources for their offspring. They will be (demi)gods, we will be gone.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon, @Svevlad, @Boomthorkell

    This is why we need to reject Great Power competition, whoever doing it and completely, even large-scale political centralization – it will always lead to this or other ways the elites screwing the others on a large scale.

  301. @songbird
    @reiner Tor

    The West seems committed to continuing payouts for its large, domestic, third-world pop.

    Perhaps, this in conjunction with open borders, and the Hollywood diversity apparatus, confers indirect status. Though, it seems to signify a smaller potential cap on foreign aid.

    Of course, if it all unwinds, and the payouts stop that may lead to negative perceptions. Development may also lead to greater media integration, allowing the antiracist ideology to gain a larger foothold in the third world and helping to sour relations with the West.

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    [MORE]

    Nice to have you back, I hope all is well.

    This place never feels right, when one of the he regulars is missing!

    • Agree: songbird, Mr. Hack
    • Replies: @songbird
    @Blinky Bill

    My Unz pattern (broadly-speaking) seems to be always to become less engaged during late spring, though I return with a vengeance as the days become short.

    It is less ennui than it is pleasant distractions. Sometimes, I read but don't comment. Other times, I miss several good posts.

  302. @Boomthorkell
    @Yellowface Anon

    Oh yes, it is. I just mean in a mass available form.

    Oh, no no no, this is more so all of humanity can be safe, having fun spreading across the stars. A lot of growth to be done in soul and capacity that way.

    Well, wars of annihilation aren't preferred. They just beat the lame and unfair Hell of all these small conflicts.

    Replies: @Yellowface Anon

    Our future isn’t to gaze at the stars, but looking down to the earth. The soil, rather than Space.

    Our species has failed (set up to fail if you believe in reptilians) the Great Filter if the best we can manage is to produce a elite that is intent to eliminate the rest. We deserve to be trapped on Earth and dying off slowly. (That is, if you don’t believe in transcendental realities and you’re a pure materialist)

    • Replies: @Svevlad
    @Yellowface Anon

    You reap what you sow.

    My personal goal: sow whatever makes us deserve to spread across the universe

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

    , @Boomthorkell
    @Yellowface Anon

    Ah, I'm a hardcore idealist who believes in fate, free will, the silver cord, the astral plane, and one upon many levels of reality. Metaphysics is my bread and butter, and I breathe the Occult. Of course, my father is an engineer who more successfully integrates the occult into his understanding of electronics. I'm just the flighty side of it. So, you know, an American.

    Optimistically speaking: maybe it's these learning curves that show us the true way to galactic presence! Always think humanity should grow, keep growing, and growing healthy and strong. If it deserves death, it will receive it without any of us needing to wish it, so far better to wish for glory and justice and Space Muscovite Fleets (and I suppose, work towards manifesting them.) Well, other fleets too. I just keep thinking of that painting.

    Besides, we know not all the elite, all of the time is working towards such vile ends. We just need to push further, suffer more, and keeping figuring it all out.

    I'm all for looking at the soil and earth, and doing it across many, many worlds! Spreading goodness and excitement. Being a settling, farming, adventuring, inventing, philosophizing being is the ultimate human ideal. Something between a Muzhyk, a Crusoe, a Nietzsche, a Buddha, and a Godly Scientist.

    Replies: @Bashibuzuk

  303. @Blinky Bill
    @songbird


    Nice to have you back, I hope all is well.

    This place never feels right, when one of the he regulars is missing!

    https://youtu.be/rS0VQOHX7lM?t=19

    Replies: @songbird

    My Unz pattern

    [MORE]
    (broadly-speaking) seems to be always to become less engaged during late spring, though I return with a vengeance as the days become short.

    It is less ennui than it is pleasant distractions. Sometimes, I read but don’t comment. Other times, I miss several good posts.

    • Thanks: Blinky Bill
  304. @Dmitry
    @Anatoly Karlin

    Trump was successful in stopping Huawei's 5G ambitions, at cost to his own allies.

    But note that the 5G consumption ban, hardly stops investments of Chinese companies like Huawei in the West, and they will likely soon be able to get chips again.


    Huawei to Build an Optoelectronics RnD and Manufacturing Centre in Cambridge

    Huawei will invest £1 billion in the first phase of the project in Cambridge, which includes construction of 50,000 square meters of facilities across nine acres of land and will directly create around 400 local jobs. Once fully operational, it will become the international headquarters of Huawei's optoelectronics business...

    The first phase of the project will focus on the research, development, and manufacturing of optical devices and modules, an integrated model that promises to bring innovation faster to market. Optoelectronics is a key technology used in fibre optic communication systems and this investment aims to bring the best of such technology to data centres and network infrastructure around the world.
     

    https://www.huawei.com/uk/news/uk/2020/huawei%20to%20build%20an%20optoelectronics%20rnd%20and%20manufacturing%20centre%20in%20cambridge

    And Huawei is still going to receive licenses to use British chips, as there was loophole in the export policy:


    British firm Arm says new chip tech could be licensed to Huawei, potentially easing the telecoms giant’s supply chain woes

    Arm said its latest tech upgrade is not subject to US export regulations, following a comprehensive review

    The British firm sells processor designs and licenses an instruction set – code that controls semiconductors – to companies like Huawei and Apple.

    Semiconductor design company Arm expects its latest v9 architecture to be potentially licensed to Huawei Technologies Co, as the latest chip innovation is of British origin and not subject to US export regulations.

    That would be a welcome development for Huawei, whose advanced chips are designed by semiconductor unit HiSilicon, amid its struggles to cope with tightened US trade sanctions that have restricted its access to sophisticated chips of American origin.

    The v9 architecture, which was launched by Arm on Tuesday in the UK, could be licensed to Huawei’s HiSilicon unit because it is not covered by US regulations, an Arm spokeswoman said on the sidelines of the Beijing event on Wednesday...

    That development could provide a much-needed respite for Huawei, which was put on Washington’s trade blacklist in 2019. The company has struggled under the US sanction, which has restricted its ability to buy hardware, software and services from American suppliers without approval from Washington.
     

    https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3127782/british-chip-design-firm-arm-takes-aim-intel-biggest-tech-overhaul

    Replies: @Blinky Bill

    Chinese President Xi Jinping is renewing his years-long push to achieve technology self-sufficiency by tapping a top deputy to shepherd a key initiative aimed at helping domestic chipmakers overcome US sanctions.

    Mr Liu He, Mr Xi’s economic czar whose sprawling portfolio spans trade to finance and technology, has been tapped to spearhead the development of so-called third-generation chip development and capabilities and is leading the formulation of a series of financial and policy supports for the technology, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

    It’s a nascent field that relies on newer materials and gear beyond traditional silicon and is currently an arena where no company or nation yet dominates, offering Beijing one of its best chances to sidestep the hurdles slapped on its chipmaking industry by the US and its allies.

    [MORE]

    The sanctions, which emerged during Mr Donald Trump’s presidency, have already smothered Huawei Technologies Co’s smartphone business and will impede longer-term efforts by chipmakers from Huawei’s HiSilicon to Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp to migrate toward more advanced wafer fabrication technologies, threatening China’s technological ambitions.

    “China is the world’s largest user of chips, so supply chain security is of high priority,” said Mr Gu Wenjun, chief analyst at research firm ICwise. “It’s not possible for any country to control the entire supply chain, but a country’s effort is definitely stronger than a single company.”

    The involvement of one of Mr Xi’s most-trusted lieutenants in China’s chip efforts highlights the importance accorded by Beijing to the initiative, which is gaining urgency as rivals from the US to Japan and South Korea scramble to shore up their own industries.

    The Chinese president has long called upon his Harvard-educated adviser to tackle matters of top national priority, making him the chief representative in trade negotiations with the US as well as chairman of the Financial Stability and Development Committee, where Mr Liu leads the charge to curb risks in the nation’s US$5 trillion (S$6.68 trillion) plus financial sector.

    In May, Mr Liu spearheaded a meeting of the technology task force that discussed ways to grow next-generation semiconductor technologies, according to a government statement.

    The 69-year-old vice-premier, who has led the country’s technology reform task force since 2018, is also overseeing projects that could lead to breakthroughs in traditional chipmaking, including the development of China’s own chip design software and extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, one of the people said, asking not to be identified as they weren’t authorized to speak to media.

    During trade negotiations with the Trump administration, Mr Liu emerged as one of the most visible advocates of Beijing’s agenda.

    He’s known Mr Xi since childhood – both are sons of veteran Communist Party leaders and were among masses of young people dispatched to work in impoverished rural areas during the Cultural Revolution.

    Now, Liu is leading the charge to reform the tech sector, which was identified in China’s latest five-year economic plan as a key strategic area in which the “whole nation system” should be used to mobilise any necessary resources.

    First introduced under Mao Zedong to help the then-fledgling Communist China industrialize, the approach was crucial to helping Beijing attain a number of top national priorities, from developing its first atomic bomb in the early 1960s to achieving Olympic sporting success.

    After that it was largely set aside as officials shifted to focus on economic growth. But following a series of US sanctions that exposed the vulnerabilities of China’s chip capabilities, Mr Xi is once again reactivating the mechanism to achieve breakthroughs in advanced chip development and manufacturing.

    About a trillion dollars of government funding have been set aside under the technology initiative, part of which will be used by central and local governments to jointly invest in a series of third-generation chip projects, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

    Top chipmakers and research institutes have submitted proposals to the ministries of science and information technology, all vying for a place in the national programme and a share of the financing.

    The Ministry of Science and Technology is slated to inject 400 million yuan (S$83.23 million) into some key “strategic electronics materials” including third-generation chips, according to a government document.

    Even moonshot chip programmes are in line for government funding. The state-backed National Natural Science Foundation of China has pledged financial support for dozens of exploratory research programmes, ranging from ultra-low power consumption to the development of a flexible chip that can collect and transmit nerve signals, as Beijing seeks to overcome “computing bottlenecks” when Moore’s Law – the industry standard for predicting the pace of chip improvements – finally stops working.

    Several subsidiaries of China Electronics Technology Group Corp and China Railway Construction Corp – organisations already sanctioned by the U.S. – are among the state-backed firms backing the effort, one of the people said. Another government-linked giant, China Electronics Corp, is one of the leaders in third-generation chip development, thanks to its investment in smaller firms including CEC Semiconductor Co.

    Using its own in-house technology, CEC Semiconductor makes silicone carbide-based power devices that can work at 200 deg C for a number of key industries from telecommunications to electric cars – reducing China’s reliance on overseas suppliers such as Infineon Technologies AG, Rohm Co and Cree Inc.

    The task of coordinating that sprawling programme now falls to Mr Liu, who has to keep track of the relevant resources and drive the national strategy to help China achieve chip independence.

    “For our country, technology and innovation is not just a matter of growth,” Mr Liu told a three-story auditorium packed with China’s top scientists in a separate meeting in May. “It’s also a matter of survival.”

    Mr Xi is counting on his lieutenant to help China fend off growing threats from the US, which is seeking to take back chip industry supremacy.

    Under the Trump administration, sanctions were slapped on Chinese giants from Huawei to SMIC, cutting off their access to American technology and equipment crucial to designing and making advanced logic chips.

    President Joe Biden has also laid out a US $52 billion plan to bolster domestic chip manufacturing, while calling on allies to join export controls aimed at curbing Beijing’s drive toward technology self-sufficiency.

    Rival powerhouse nations like South Korea and leading corporations such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. have also responded with their own spending plans, fuelling the race to take the lead in the sector.

    With traditional chipmaking facing a series of challenges from technology development to heavy capital investment, third-generation chips – which use compounds such as gallium nitride and silicon carbide to significantly improve the performance of semiconductors that power a wide range of industries and products – may offer China its best chance to overcome rivals, senior academic Mao Junfa told an industry event in Nanjing earlier this month.

    “China couldn’t buy chips, even with cash in hand,” he said, referring to Washington’s sanctions on Chinese tech companies including Huawei. “The compound chip technologies could help China surpass rivals in the post-Moore’s Law era.”

    • Thanks: mal, AltanBakshi, reiner Tor
    • Replies: @mal
    @Blinky Bill

    Chinese chip output - $30 billion.

    Chinese financial sector turnover - $5 trillion


    where Mr Liu leads the charge to curb risks in the nation’s US$5 trillion (S$6.68 trillion) plus financial sector.
     
    This goes to show how insignificant advanced manufacturing is as a share of economic activity. And this is universal.

    President Joe Biden has also laid out a US $52 billion plan to bolster domestic chip manufacturing, while calling on allies to join export controls aimed at curbing Beijing’s drive toward technology self-sufficiency.
     
    For reference, US Federal Government budget alone is $6 trillion

    Basically, a single year's worth of Chinese financial sector turnover or US Fed Gov deficit could fund production of advanced chips for generations to come.

    Which is why sanctions on high tech products is a dumb idea. Sanctions guarantee domestic market for the targeted country and capital investment is trivial for the domestic producers. Both Chinese and Russians (with their Elbrus platform) will start cranking out those advanced chips like potato chips once market is guaranteed.

    Replies: @mal, @reiner Tor

    , @Dmitry
    @Blinky Bill

    It can be that some of the US sanctions problem for China, will be re-emerging if Nvidia buys ARM. And Biden has not reversed Trump's anti-China sanctions yet (although perhaps the relations will improve after there is more diplomacy).

    Currently, ARM is preparing for its next product line-up to be purchasable by Chinese companies (because of not using US sourced components).

    Huawei was preparing somethings on open-source RISC-V platform meanwhile as an insurance.

    It seems like there is some unclarity if there would be effect if ARM is purchased by an American company.


    Nvidia acquisition of Arm throws company into tech spat between U.S. and China

    Nvidia Corp's NVDA.O $40 billion acquisition of chip designer Arm is set to catapult it into the fray of geopolitical tensions between Beijing and Washington, analysts and lawyers say.

    Arm's blueprints for powering chipsets are a critical component for many Chinese smartphone makers and AI firms and China is expected to take a dim view of an American company having so much sway in an industry it has prioritised in its battle for tech supremacy with the United States.

    "Anything that creates more concentration in the industry to the benefit of a U.S. company, I would think that's not aligned with what China wants, said Art Dicker, director at Shanghai-based R&P China Lawyers.

    China's State Administration for Market Regulation, which has to give the go-ahead for the deal alongside other regulators globally, did not respond to a request for comment.

    Stewart Randall, who tracks China's chip sector at Shanghai-based consultancy Intralink, said that the acquisition, one of the largest semiconductor takeovers ever, will prompt many Chinese chipmakers to look for and develop alternatives to Arm, which is being sold by Japan's SoftBank Group Corp 9984.T.

    However, while a handful of options exist such as other open-source technologies RISC-V and MIPS, most cannot currently compete with Arm's mature ecosystem, tech experts say.

    An executive from one Chinese startup said it had been looking at moving away from Arm for some time but considered it too much trouble. Now, he said, they plan to accelerate efforts.

    Meanwhile, Arm's ownership by an American