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Rosatom HQ.

***

* RIP. Sam Dickson: William H. Regnery II: A Hero’s Life. A Hero’s Death. I intersected with him in Moscow in 2018 at the end of a transit of the Trans-Siberian with a friend. Too little to get a know a person, but my impressions were positive, FWIW. On a non-political tone, He remarked that he had visited Moscow three times, once towards the end of the Soviet era, the second time around 2010, and the third time now. Each time it had gotten better. He said that he had been in London about 20 times and that it had progressively degraded since he first visited in the 1960s. In 2018, he felt it had overtaken it in quality and by a large margin.

* Lo, Y.-H., Cheng et al. (2020). Detecting genetic ancestry and adaptation in the Taiwanese Han people. Molecular Biology and Evolution. Spoiler: Admixture happened before the Chinese emigrated to Taiwan.

* @Peter_Nimitz (and @Irkutyanin1): The Bolsheviks in August 1918, saved by the Latvians and the British?

* Haaretz: Calling Them ‘Antisemitic Images,’ Krakow Bans Sale of Jewish Figurines Holding Coins. Lame but unsurprising. I bought a dozen of these Jews when I was in Krakow to give out as edgy presents to Russian friends.

* Dean Fantazzini’s new estimate of Ukraine’s population for 2020 is 30.6 million (vs. 31.3 million in 2019), building on previous work which I covered. Whether it’s closer to 30M or 35M aside, it edges ever closer to a 5x gap with Russia (vs. a 3x gap in 1992). This is also smaller than the ~35M it had in its modern borders in 1913/14. (Conversely, Ukraine’s GDP (PPP) per capita would be better).

* Charles Murray: “Doesn’t it make a difference to @davidafrench’s argument that two of the core problems typically ascribed to centuries of American racism–elevated black violent crime and depressed mean cognitive ability–are found wherever sub-Saharan African populations live?”

* Scientific American: AI Designs Quantum Physics Experiments beyond What Any Human Has Conceived

* Revolver: How Black Rifle Coffee Used Every Trick In The Book to Fool Conservatives (h/t Hanania). Another sad example of conservatives fleecing their own.

* RT: Chechen leader Kadyrov bans locals still unvaccinated against Covid-19 from entering mosques or shops & using public transport.

* The Economist: “Our excess-mortality model suggests that 8m-16m people have died in the pandemic. The central estimate is 14m.” Stats from the Third World are generally a black box. So could be right by now.

* Chinese shitlord notes that US freedom of speech is circumscribed by the ADL and gets promptly banned from Twitter. Reposting the public content of journalists is also bannable. “Muh corporations can ban whom they want” but if you’re not on Twitter you’re invisible. And their coordination grows ever more Picus News-like.

* Daily Beast: A Homicidal Church Is Ruining This Country With Putin’s Help.

(1) The Georgian Orthodox Church is autocephalous from Moscow, (2) all polls show Georgians more homophobic than Russians, (3) Georgian nationalists don’t exactly like Russia, LOL.

But it is still Putler & Russia who are repressing their gays.

 
• Tags: Blogging, Open Thread 

These are the results of a recent poll from Rating Group. 41% agree with Putin’s position, 55% disagree. Not bad, considering there’s now been a generation’s worth of state svidomy narratives.

But possibly the most startling result (and certainly one that I didn’t expect is there there’s essentially zero difference across age groups. 44% of 18-29 y/o’s agree to 42% of 60+ y/o’s, despite declining numbers of self-identifying Russians in younger age groups.

Otherwise, the regional and political party breakdowns are not surprising. Solid majorities in the South and East, amongst adherents of the UOC-MP, and the expected opposition parties (Opposition Bloc, Party of Shariy, etc.) consider Ukrainians and Russians to be one people. Even so, the fact that even in Western Ukraine, 22% agree with this, as do 10% of Greek-Catholics, 12% of nationalist Svoboda supporters, and 10% of European Solidarity voters, was mildly interesting; it is curious and significant that such people even exist.

 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: Opinion Poll, Russia, Svidomy, Ukraine 

Chinese protectionism/censorship (they only allow 34 Hollywood movies a year) has helped incubate a domestic film industry. As Richard Hanania points out, citing a study by James McMahon, that as of now, 9 out of 10 of the highest grossing films in Chinese history are domestic, all released in the last few years.

State censors require that all films in China, both of domestic and foreign origin, adhere to “the principles of the Chinese Constitution and maintain social morality” (O’Connor & Armstrong, 2015, p. 9). These standards are maintained through the prohibition of certain images and scenes that depict “demons or supernaturalism, crime or any other illicit or illegal actions within China’s borders, disparagement of the People’s Liberation Army and police, and anything that could be perceived as anti-China–including merely damaging Chinese sites or monuments.

Something like Leviathan (2014), a depressive/cynical-for-the-sake-of-it movie with Russophobic undertones, wouldn’t have been made (or at least screened) in China and that’s probably a good thing for the Chinese.

That said, another curious finding from the author James McMahon, although it is not in the paper, is that Russia – along with India and China – has the least intersection with American cultural consumption. That is, they have the lowest correlations between films that do well in the US box office and in their own.

This seems to largely be a map of cultural closeness to the US. Australia, Britain, New Zealand, and South Africa are all in the top 5 closest countries to the US.

I suspect that the distance between the US and Russia might even start to further increase with the increasingly heavy-handed promotion of “Woke” themes in American cinema.

 
• Category: Culture/Society • Tags: China, Film, Russia, United States 

Time for something more stereotypical.

***

* The AK. About a couple of months ago the National Bolsheviks (“Other Russia”) had me round to their “bunker” for a podcast. It’s now been released, you can listen to it here. (Obviously only in Russian).

Alt Right columnist Tobias Langdon “featured me” as a Jew besmirching the noble Anglo at Counter-Currents.

* SJWs. Ed West (Unherd) – The West’s cultural revolution is over:

This is not some dark new age of cancel culture, however, it’s just a return to normality. Those who grew up in the late 20th century were living in a highly unusual time, one that could never be sustained, a sexual and cultural revolution that began in 1963 or 1968. But it has ended and, as all revolutionaries must do after storming the Bastille, they have built Bastilles of their own. The new order has brought in numerous methods used by the old order to exert control — not just censorship, but word taboo and rituals which everyone is forced to go along with, or at least not openly criticise. You might call it the new intolerance, or woke extremism, but all societies need the policing of social norms.

No one would satirise the transgender movement today; no one would dare point fun at BLM, or Pride month; no one would dare joke about George Floyd, because like the publishers of Gay Times in 1977, they might face jail for blasphemy. Instead leading satirist Sacha Baron Cohen makes a living making jokes at the expense of the little people. Indeed the only satire made now pokes fun at the old establishment, like punching the corpse of a once-ferocious zoo animal, or the people who still hold the old beliefs; the elderly, the less educated, the rural and provincial. The powerless.

This is one of the best meta-pieces on the Great Awokening to date IMO.

* CHINA. Global Times – Surveys in Chinese cities show only 4% of urban families have willingness to have third child (h/t Godfree Roberts). As I noted, I think a generation of “lowest-low” fertility is all but baked in for China. This has happened to all the Sinic cultures of East Asia, as well as South Korea, despite the big differences between their political systems. It would be presumptuous to think that the CPC can avert what the others, including Singapore, did not.

* RUSSIAGATE NOSTALGIA. Luke Harding – Kremlin papers appear to show Putin’s plot to put Trump in White House. It reads like /r/esist fan fic.

The report – “No 32-04 \ vd” – is classified as secret. It says Trump is the “most promising candidate” from the Kremlin’s point of view. The word in Russian is perspektivny.

There is a brief psychological assessment of Trump, who is described as an “impulsive, mentally unstable and unbalanced individual who suffers from an inferiority complex”.

There is also apparent confirmation that the Kremlin possesses kompromat, or potentially compromising material, on the future president, collected – the document says – from Trump’s earlier “non-official visits to Russian Federation territory”.

#ThatHappened. /s Actually, I strongly suspect it might have been a troll job. Anyhow, as Aaron Mate points out, even the likes of Maddow aren’t touching it with a ten foot pole.

* SOUTH AFRICA. Aaaa… I’m… I’m gonna loooooot!

Kirkegaard with a blast from the past (2019): South Africa’s Decline Is Worst Among Nations Not at War, Model Shows. I wonder if there’s some demographic tipping point at which it implodes.

* AFGHANISTAN. Zadran, S. K., Ilyas, M., & Dawari, S. (2021). Genetic variants associated with diseases in Afghan population. Molecular Genetics & Genomic Medicine, 9(5), e1608. Holtz: “In Afghanistan, the prevalence of cousin marriages is estimated to be 46.2%. The prevalent type of cousin marriage is first cousin marriage (27.8%), followed by double first cousin marriage (6.9%), second cousin (5.8%), and third cousin (3.9%).” Sailer noted this, and the implications for the chances of US success in Afghanistan, two decades ago. 😐

* Video of Taliban taking over a gym. Disclose TV: “UK will work with the Taliban if they take power in Afghanistan, says the British Defense Minister.”

* CORONA. Yuri Deigin – Get vaccinated! It could help you, like, not die… It’s pretty funny observing the hostile responses to it. Basically, what I think happened is that many anti-China right-wingers followed him after Wade propped him as the originator of the “biolab escape” theory, under the impression he was some kind of anti-China propagandist. This is not the case, to their chagrin.

Incidentally, I have largely refrained from opining on ivermectin. It did strike me as this year’s hydroxychloroquine (not suppressed, works to some extent in some cases, neither the silver bullet nor the snake oil of rightoid and soyjak imagination, respectively), but it’s not something I wanted to actively research. But happily, Deigin – compiled some several studies which shows it as “either ineffective or very mildly effective.”

* The Economist notes that the Italian team that took the Euro 2020 was all white.

* Noah Carl – Are the England players consistent anti-racists?

* comment: Bashizubuk sci-fi idea.

* Antifa lolcow WASBAPPIN now has a Substack and it’s arguably even more powerful than his (now sadly suspended) Twitter.

* Daily Beast – MAGA World’s ‘Freedom Phone’ Actually Budget Chinese Phone.

Richard Hanania: “Latest conservative grift is to buy a $120 Chinese phone, preload it with conservative apps, rename it the “Freedom Phone,” and sell it for $500.

While Freedom Phone’s founder has failed to include basic details about its device, he did line up a massive ad campaign among conservative influencers. Along with Owens, Stone, D’Souza, and Alexander, the Freedom Phone has also been backed by a number of other figures popular on the right, including Pizzagate conspiracy theorist Jack Posobiec, journalist John Solomon, and Students for Trump cofounder Ryan Fournier.

OTOH, who can blame them? There’s a reason these influencers have made it and you haven’t. My observation is the more you scam rightoids, the more they respect you for it.

* FINANCE (NFA). Three companies of note have listed in recent weeks: Transferwise (now just Wise) (~$13B), a very easy to use service for international money transfers; 23andme (~$4B), which needs no introduction; and the European Medical Center (~$1B), a private chain of about a dozen high-end clinics in Moscow. I suspect all of them will do quite well. I was actually slightly surprised that 23andme mc is so low, the genomic data it has accumulated should be a goldmine for pharma companies.

 

 
• Tags: Blogging, Open Thread 

America’s ability to draw high quality human capital from abroad is one of the lynchpins of its economic strengths and probably goes some ways to explaining why it’s GDP per capita is significantly higher than would might be predicted from its national IQ.

Alexander Kruel recently had a Twitter thread about precisely which groups of immigrants contribute to that innovation:

From The Demographics of Innovation in the United States (page 26-27).

Nothing surprising there. But it’s spelled out just in case:

Then it cites the composition of the US Math Olympiad team. The International Math Olympiad has indeed long become a Chinese vs. Chinese-American contest.

Similarly “Oriental” picture in Canada.

Now the underrepresentation of NAM (non-Asian minority) immigrant achievement is something that’s in the “those who know, know” category, to be surreptitiously noticed if not publicly acknowledged .

But there’s a much more obscure but also rather important, and arguably more interesting, HBD observation to be teased out from behind these three examples.

Any suggestions?

 

That’s what I counselled people hoping for (or fearing) that a color revolution was imminent a few months ago: Look at the numbers.

Well, since then, they have if anything plummeted further.

14% approval vs. 62% disapproval. Down from half a year ago.

Furthermore, while young people are relatively more pro-Navalny (this is not surprising: to those who follow my Russia blogging, I have been pointing out that Russian youth lean more liberal and more nationalist relative to the mainstream for several years now), there’s still nothing to write home about so far as absolute numbers are concerned.

Just 24% approval vs. 59% disapproval amongst the 18-24 year olds who constitute the spearhead of any color revolution.

In the Russian electoral context, it is all one big nothingburger.

 

I wrote about Woke Capital making inroads into Russia after Netherlands HQ’ed Yandex.Taxi fired a driver who refused service to a rude Black foreign student last year.

However, not all such corporate attempts to signal fealty to progressive values are paying off.

Vkusvill is a nice chain of grocery stores that are somewhere in between budget outlets like Perekrestok (=Carrefour/Safeway in the Western context) and the snobbish Azbuka Vkusa (=Whole Foods). Trader Joe’s would probably be its closest US equivalent. But it is also expanding abroad, with two branches and a cafe in the Netherlands, and planning a listing in New York.

So it is not too surprising that Vkusvill thought that now might be an auspicious conjuncture to do this:

The ad featured a number of real-life VkusVill shoppers such as a student, a single mother, and two straight couples, then ended with the “matriarch”-led family including the lesbian couple, who declined to talk to the Financial Times.

The family of women posed for pictures with meatless burgers and coconut condensed milk as they espoused their support for veganism, recycling and polyamorous relationships.

Certainly not a bad idea to attract more hipsters.

(Incidentally, what’s even funnier is that the lesbian family in question is from pro-Western Georgia. Which happened to cancel its gay pride parade through Tbilisi due to Far Right attacks just a week ago ).

But this provoked a boycott from Orthodox non-GMO type shoppers who happen to form the other wing of their clientele. Quickly it became evident that they were more numerous than the polyamorous hipsters, forcing Vkusvill to backpedal.

They apologized, blaming an activist underling in the marketing department for the debacle, and replaced their photo of a Vkusvill family with a rather more traditional one.

This in turn enraged the liberals, who condemned Vkusvill for its cowardice and retreat before homophobia. Meanwhile, their Amsterdam branch apologized to the Dutch LGBT community.

Such are the woes of balancing between two stools for the managers of a company who don’t give a damn either way and just want to make money in this Clown World of ours.

In my observations, the saying “Go woke, go broke” is largely rightoid cope. It just doesn’t work, at most, the SJWs merely jump the shark by a couple of years.

That said, it might actually be true in a country where support for gay marriage is at less than 20% and most people are strongly repulsed by Woke signaling.

 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: Conservatism, LGBT, Moscow, Netherlands, Russia, Woke Capital 

This translates to a homicide rate of 7.4/100,000 homicide rate using the US population of 332M as the denominator.

I wrote about the history of the Russian homicide rates here. This is how the centennial comparison now looks like between Russia and the US after the latter’s embrace of #BLM and community policing.

US at 7.4/100k in 2020 would already be quite ahead of Russia, which was at 4.7/100k in the same year.

It’s quite possible that this year or next year the differential will be 2x over in Russia’s favor since US homicide rates appear to be still rising (if at a slower pace) while the number of homicides continues falling in Russia (-3.8% in Jan-May 2021 y/y).

Not that this is yet anything to write home about for Russia. After all, “demographically normed”, Russia’s homicide rates remain well above American ones. (As always, this is largely a function of middle-aged alcoholics knifing each other during their drinking bouts, as opposed to the “street criminality” that distinguishes African-American homicides). Nonetheless, these caveats aside, it now performs much better than the US so far as the raw per capita numbers are concerned, and vastly better than during the 1990s-2000s period, when late Soviet era “alcoholization” had reached its peak concurrently with the breakdown of law and order.

 
• Category: Race/Ethnicity • Tags: Crime, Homicide, Russia, United States 

***

* I think travel in much of Europe will remain significantly restricted as Delta makes its way from UK/Portugal to mainland Europe.

* Nature – Mounting evidence suggests Sputnik COVID vaccine is safe and effective. But Europeans still not rushing to approve, with France being intransigent in particular. Seething over Sanofi failure?

* Aeroflot short worked out (if not spectacularly).

* EURO 2020. If I had to guess England would win, but it’s really a coin toss. I am glad that Denmark lost, they played dirty and deserved that penalty.

* Lewontin, he of the famous fallacy, RIP. Peter Frost’s obit.

* Nick Fuentes banned from Twitter. He was the closest thing the US has to a “genuine” opposition leader, a locus of normality in the zoo of tired MAGA grifters, WN oldfags, and Ziocon “hello fellow nationalist” types who otherwise make up the modern Alt Right. It’s instructive that the regime unpersoned him. And it continues to raise questions why Russia continues to tolerate Twitter and other Western social media, open tools of the American regime.

* Algemeiner – ‘The Entire World Grovels to the Jews’: Belarus Dictator Alexander Lukashenko in Antisemitic Outburst. Before the UR commentariat gets “excited”, I’d say this is just an observation by Lukashenko that Belorussian (and I’d also say Russian) meekness in advancing its own victimization narratives has made it more pliable to attacks by Western historical revisionists, a mistake that Jews didn’t make.

* Robin Hanson – Seeing ANYTHING Other Than Huge-Civ Is Bad News. “Katechon Hypothesis” vibes.

* Business Insider – Satellite images show China building what appears to be over 100 new silos for its nuclear missiles, analysts say.

* Mencius Moldbugman talks about the phenomenon of transparent bathrooms in 5 star hotels.

* CRYPTO. This week’s thoughts on crypto for those interested. Bull market crypto mc peak was $2.5T, world wealth is $418T this year = 0.6% of world wealth. Jan 2018 crypto market cap peak was $0.8T/320T = 0.25% of world wealth. In fairness, not at all bad increase, relative to virtually any other asset class, and there’s cause to think that whereas in 2018 people really went wild this year’s bull run was cut short by various FUDs.

Another thing to note is that Bitcoin dominance never receded to the extent it did in 2018 (I was sure this wouldn’t happen, hence missed the peak). Back then, altcoins were just $ETH and shitcoin “BTC killers.” Now, there are tons of altcoins that actually do things across #DeFi and Web 3.0; yet even so, Bitcoin fell less as a % of the total, and even a large part of the altcoin gains accrued to dog-themed shitcoins and fossil coins while some actually world-changing coins like Chainlink remained in the doldrums throughout the bull run. But perhaps it’s good that normies didn’t “get” things like Aave this run. It gives us one last opportunity for accumulation on the cheap.

 

 
• Tags: Blogging, Open Thread 

Yesterday the Levada Center released a new poll on vaccines that tends to confirm my contention that Russia’s tawdry pace of vaccinations is not a result of supply constraints, but the banal fact that many Russians (including in older age groups) would simply rather catch Corona than get vaccinated.

The first observation is that the percentage of people saying they won’t get vaccinated has been steady at more than 50% of population despite half a year and counting of increasingly intense government pro-vaccination propaganda.

The people who are open to getting vaccinated are doing exactly just that. 19% say they have been, which is close to the 18% of official statistics. Unless there’s some cardinal change of views, this means that Russia’s final vaccination rate is probably capped at something like 40-50% (short of it being made mandatory – but that is unlikely to happen, 58% oppose that idea and so does Putin).

Note that this poll was conducted in 24-30 Jun, when the Delta wave was already in full swing and Moscow restaurants were ordered to require QR vaccination codes for entry.

This graph, however, is much more telling. In most countries, it is the elderly who are much more eager to get the vaccine, for obvious reasons. In Russia, these inter-generational differences are much more modest. Almost half of 55+ year olds simply don’t want to get vaccinated and that’s that. Amongst those who do, half already had been.

This is the main and really only reason why in Britain, where vaccination of the elderly is at 95%+, mortality is drastically lower than in Russia where interest from that demographic (and in general) was so feeble that age restrictions on Sputnik access were withdrawn a month after it became publicly available in January.

Moreover, contrary to claims made by pro-Western propagandists (including some in comments to this blog), pro-vaccination sentiments, at least as concerns Russian-made vaccines, are much stronger amongst Putin supporters.

Of those who approve of Putin, 22% are vaccinated and 31% intend to (=53% total), while 45% would not.

Of those who don’t approve of Putin, only 14% are vaccinated and 14% intend to (=28% total), while 71% would not.

This is partially explainable by the age effect because younger people are more anti-Putin and also more anti-vaccination. However, since the difference between ideology is much stronger than the difference between age groups, this can’t be the main explanation.

Unsurprising. But worth keeping in mind, considering liberal/pro-Navalny elites’ belated attempts to pin the anti-vaxxer label onto Putinists, after having themselves engaged in bitter anti-Sputnik propaganda in service of their foreign sponsors several months ago.

I suppose a silver lining here is that mortality should become increasingly loaded against Putin opponents, many of whom evidently conflate their opinion with him and on anything made in Russia, and would rather get a foreign synthesized virus than take a Russian-made vaccine.

 
• Category: Science • Tags: Corona, Opinion Poll, Russia, Vaccines 

***

* Scott Alexander – Welcome Polygenically Screened Babies. First baby polygenetically screened born to a family with a history of breast cancer which wanted to reduce to reduce those chances. SA implies the client was a reader. Eventually it could be possible to do this for intelligence and other personality traits.

* Putin’s Q&A with Russia. I’ll have a separate short post about that.

* Artyom Lukin says China made strategic decision to replace US corn with Russian wheat (based on convo with Russian agribusiness specialist).

* BASED. Serbia’s Vucic stabs Drumpf in the back, reneging on the commitment to move his embassy to Jerusalem, also proclaims he “firmly believes that the Communist Party of China will continue leading the Chinese people to stride forward along the path of socialism with Chinese characteristics.”

* As expected, US withdrawal from Afghanistan means China is sidling in. Plans for road to Pakistan.

* Brian Jacques’ Redwall children’s fantasy series (essentially, heroic mice and surdy badgers fight evil rats and wicked weasels) is being made into an animated series. Minor AK lore: I pretty much learned English from reading this series.

* /r/europe has Europe map of cash payments as % of transactions. Balkans not a surprise, but it’s curious how allergic the Germans are to going digital; or that Russia is more digital is more digital than Estonia.

* Robin Hanson – The Coming Cosmic Control Conflict. Basically, if his Grabby Aliens model is correct (e.g. isn’t constrained by Katechon Hypothesis or something similar), the possible conflicts that may occur along the borders of their expanding spheres of control could make for epic stories.

* Justin Murphy – Urbit and the Telos of the Creator Economy. (h/t MJ). The best introduction to urbit I’ve seen to date.

“If you think the stock price of woke politics is currently higher than it should be in equilibrium, then buying Urbit address space (i.e. Urbit “land”) is a way to bet on this belief.”

FWIW, I never bought the Moldbug association FUD. I don’t think it being loosely tied to an NRx thinker who has long distanced himself from the project will matter if it becomes attractive to use and people come there. Main risk is just that it’s outcompeted by some other solution, just like nobody now remembers Bebo. 95% of crypto-related smallcaps go to zero. Still, it’s one of the most solid projects out there, while I certainly don’t deign to give financial advice, picking up a star in the bear market might be an idea.

Another very good point here is that Big Tech sucks up a lot of human capital that could be more productively harnessed (just like the financial sector). Is Goolag really worth this? Relative to these misallocations, the energy costs of, say, running the Bitcoin network would appear trivial.

* Steve Sailer – New Racial Admixture and Cognitive Performance Study. Here is the paper:

Connor, G., & Pesta, B. J. (2021). Linear and partially linear models of behavioural trait variation using admixture regression. In bioRxiv (p. 2021.05.14.444173).

All the expected results for US Blacks, replicated yet again.

* Humorous but IMO accurate /pol/ explainer on what various lower IQ categories “mean” in practice.

* Center of Bitcoin mining is moving away from China (to Kazakhstan, mostly, as I gather). It’s curious how few mention that this removes one of the big FUDs against Bitcoin.

* IT’S COMING HOME? Not much into football. But my guess is that Italy beats Spain, England beats Denmark, and England beats Italy.

 

 
• Tags: Blogging, Open Thread 

Haha, any of you still remember that meme? It was admittedly some very good hopium from Audacious Epigone at the time. (Belated RIP to his blog).

But over time it became clear that the idea that zoomers were radically more “based” than previous generations was, at most, if not a complete myth – Richard Hanania mentioned that he couldn’t find anything about the methodology of the 2016 HS poll that supposedly had 81% of pupils voting for Trump – then at most a very temporary outburst of /pol/ meme-driven excitement that was soon confined back to its kennels by the Big Tech overlords and/or stamped out once they entered the universities. Subsequent polls have tended to show that zoomers are similar in outlook to millennials, and in fact more woke on some issues, such as personal pronouns and gender identities.

Well here’s a new poll to confirm that point (h/t Hanania).

That’s right, it seems like 46% of today’s College Republicans agree with CRT.

Moreover, so far as the woke Republican zoomers are concerned, their main difference from the Democrats is just that they want to pay less taxes while bombing more foreigners.

Nemets comments:

Anecdotally it seems right. At GOP meetings here the young people are supportive of most of the wokist pushes of 5 years ago, & only support GOP for tax cuts and militarism. Exceptions are the dwindling numbers of pious Christians.

Furthermore, a majority of students believe that the US history curriculum didn’t focus enough on race. As Hanania notes, “[it’s] clear that a vast majority either likes the current PC curriculum or wants it even more PC.”

Zoomer grugs reared on /pol/ and Big Brain “Facing Reality” readers might be “redpilled”, but so far as the normie majority is concerned CRT is part and parcel of Wokeism, the religion that has replaced Christianity for their generation.

And as such, like it or not, CRT is here to stay:

The Alt Right, /pol/, HBD autists, “radical centrists”, and anti-Woke grifters all failed. It is the true intellectual titans such as Ibram X. Kendi and Robin DiAngelo who have won the battle of ideas.

You will accept that, you will take the knee, you will acknowledge your white privilege, you will be happy.

 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: Alt Right, Demographics, Generation Z, United States 

***

* Press F for John McAfee. Even NBC acknowledged he was suicided (if briefly). Certainly a very colorful character.

* @BirthGauge with new table of preliminary TFR estimates for first few months of this year. Germany will have a higher TFR than the US for the first time in more than a century this year. Lyman Stone on what explains Czechia becoming what will probably be the highest TFR developed country (apart from Israel) in 2021. Mark Steyn on suicide watch.

* Von Stumm, S., & Plomin, R. (2021). Using DNA to predict intelligence. Intelligence, 86, 101530.

* MAGIC SOIL. Bukowski, P., Clark, G., Gáspár, A., & Peto, R. (2021). Social mobility and political regimes: intergenerational mobility in Hungary, 1949-2017. 67, 81 (h/t @devarbol). The elites of 18C Hungary largely preserved their positions under 20C Communist Hungary.

Guirkinger, C., Aldashev, G., Aldashev, A., & Fodor, M. (2020). Economic Persistence despite Adverse Policies: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan (No. 2020-39). ULB — Universite Libre de Bruxelles. https://ideas.repec.org/p/eca/wpaper/2013-312572.html (h/t @whyvert). Finds the same thing even for Kyrgyzstan: Richer and more powerful tribes had greater representation in 1970s Soviet elite.

* XENOS. Avi Loev – A Possible Link between ‘Oumuamua and Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

* 2,034 nearby star-systems that could find Earth by observing it crossing the Sun.

* I did say Wokeism is literally White Supremacy… here is a another anecdote to that effect.

* Dark Fish. They apparently account for at least 50% of fish biomass.

* CRYPTO. My thoughts on the bear market this week. I appeared at Zadumov’s podcast, where I’m somewhat of a regular now, and had a little debate with a Bitcoin maxi (Russian language).

With gas prices low, I recommend content creators/brand owners to snap up an .eth domain. They are cheap but could become quite important come Web 3.0. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

* UKRAINE. Ukraine using $2B of its meager resources to buy British warships and kneeling for the honor… well, I suppose the UK’s provocation of Russia by sailing its destroyer through Crimean waters was not so surprising. The “lost” documents about that were obviously a leak. Meanwhile, China also forces Ukraine to kneel by (allegedly) threatening vaccine supplies if Kiev had insisted on keeping its name on the list of states condemning its actions in Xinjiang.

Israel proved more faithful to the US, though. Hanania: “US loves Muslim rights so much, it pressures Israel to criticize China. Because that’s where Israel can make a difference in giving Muslims rights, in Xinjiang.”

 

 
• Tags: Blogging, Open Thread 

[Epistemic status: Low, I don’t know much about Afghanistan, nor does it interest me much (except for the fascination multiple empires seem to have in expending their treasure there].

There appears to be a near consensus that the Taliban will take over most of Afghanistan soon after the US withdrawal and that they will do this rather quickly.

This assessment would appear to be backed up by the takeover of multiple provincial centers by the Taliban, who had previously mainly stuck to the countryside, in recent days.

Even on paper, the two sides are more evenly matched than many expect, according to a recent report (h/t Vendetta):

A glance at commonly cited numbers would leave the impression that Afghanistan’s security forces far outnumber the Taliban, by as much as a factor of four or five (352,000 to 60,000). A more nuanced comparison, however, suggests a different story. Most estimates put the number of Taliban frontline fighters around 60,000. The comparable number of Afghan soldiers is about 96,000. The only detailed public estimate of the Taliban’s militia elements—its “holding” force—is around 90,000 individuals. The comparable government force is the police, which has about the same number of people (84,000) in the field. Thus, a purely military comparison of strength shows that the government’s fighting force is only about 1.5 times the strength of the Taliban’s, while the two sides’ holding forces are roughly equivalent.

The Afghan government forces have much more in the way of advanced tech, but they are too low IQ to use most of it effectively. So its value is limited and will plummet further once American advisors leave.

The Taliban believe in what they’re fighting for so their morale is much higher. Most ANDSF soldiers are in it for the paycheck. Corruption is rife and even those “elite” units (read: minimally combat-worthy) end up not getting promised support from other units, with the result that they end up falling into traps, getting massacred, and becoming demoralized themselves.

So on the face of it the situation for the central government in Kabul is bleak.

But will this mean that the Taliban takeover is guaranteed? No. At least, not all of Afghanistan.

The Taliban has traditionally been popular amongst Pashtuns. But they are only 42% of the population, while the Tajiks and Hazara are less enthusiastic about them and constitute 36%. This might be even more true today than a decade or two ago because the Taliban are reputed to have shifted a bit away from Islamic fundamentalism and more into the direction of Pashtun nationalism.

And indeed, check on the LiveUAMap of Afghanistan – a page that will grow in popularity in coming months – shows that virtually all the pins on the map denoting attacks occur in areas where Pashtuns are the majority.

This follows the classical trajectory of guerilla insurgencies against inept government forces in the Middle East/Central Asia. While they make excellent headway against government forces in areas where they have popular support, blending into the local population and enjoying an intelligence advantage, the going gets much harder once they leave those areas. (Hence, say, why Islamic State ultimately never had a chance of capturing Baghdad).

And even during the five years of Taliban rule in Afghanistan, there was the breakaway Northern Alliance in the Tajik north-east, as well as anti-Taliban guerilla movements in the Hazara and Aimak areas.

So my guess is that things will end up something like that this time too as opposed to any kind of unitary Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

Almost all the Pashtun areas will revert to Taliban rule, where they have no already done so. But the “Northern Alliance” will reconstitute itself and will, at a minimum, retain control over the Tajik, Hazara, and Aimak majority areas.

The key question is whether the Taliban will be able to take control over Kabul.

I suspect it will, because another constant of Afghan history is that outsiders tend to insist on involving themselves. One exotic but not unimaginable scenario is that China takes over the US as a security provider. China has a more legitimate interest in Afghanistan than the US because it provides a direct land route to Iran, whose relations have blossomed in recent years culminating in the signing of a $400B deal this year. China as the world’s biggest construction-industrial complex will be in a position to build the roads, railways, and pipelines to actualize that connection. Possibly China will even help it take back the Pashtun areas, with the help of the technologies and practices used to pacify Xinjiang.

Russia enjoys good relations with the current Afghan government (minor footnote: It was one of the few governments to recognize Crimea). (Incidentally, yet another reason why the fake news about Russia paying Taliban fighters bounties to kill US soldiers was so patently absurd). Iran was on the verge of invading Afghanistan a couple of times in the late 1990s. Both would be perfectly fine with such an arrangement.

This opens the rather amusing prospect of the US returning to tradition and supporting the Taliban in its liberation struggle against the Chicom oppressors and its Russian and Iranian lackeys in another decade. That is, after all, about how long it took the US to let bygones be bygones with Al Qaeda/Al Nusra.

 

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Afghanistan, Geopolitics 

The US has seized the domain names of Iranian state news agency Press TV. It also seized Al-Masirah, a website owned by the Houthis in Yemen (the people fighting Saudi Arabia), as well as dozens of other websites from countries as disperse as Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Nigeria whose common denominator was that they were owned by or connected to Shi’ite Islam.

Apart from displaying the Biden administration’s continuity with Trump-era policy on Iran – as in many other things, both as regards domestic and foreign policy – this also constitutes a pretty significant confirmation of the thesis that the era of the Open Internet is over and its bifurcation along national and civilizational lines is inevitable. Given these developments, is it wise even for the English language versions of the websites of the likes of RT and Xinhua to remain on .com domains?

But this won’t improve individual censorship-resistance (except, perhaps, to the extent that one can geopolitically leverage – but that carries its own risks and tradeoffs). For that you need decentralized DNS such as ENS, HNS, Unstoppable, Blockstack. Actually, on that note, with gas prices currently quite low, now might not be a bad time to snap up an ENS domain for the next few years or decades if you (1) have some Ethereum in your own wallet, and (2) are in the profession of producing “content”, especially if it is often of an edgy nature. “Squatting” and “domain sniping” isn’t yet a thing there but it probably will be once Web 3 takes off.

 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: Censorship, Cryptocurrency, Iran, United States 

Kneeling before Anglo ambassadors seems to be becoming something of a Ukrainian military tradition.

Ukrainian army officer kneeling before the British ambassador to Ukraine Melinda Simmons.

Traditionally, it was the recipient of a honorary sword for acts of valor who knelt. The only exceptions were when defeated parties knelt and presented their weapons to the victor.

Come to think of it, I suppose that’s not an inappropriate analogy.

Ukrainian general presenting a sabre to US Ambassador Tefft.

It’s pretty funny. The svidomy kneel to the Anglos. Who kneel to the Blacks.

The svidomy are begging their way into a foreign hierarchy at rock bottom and are not even getting paid for abasing themselves so. Very cringe to observe.

 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Svidomy, Ukraine 

Prestigious.

***

* Putin-Biden summit in Geneva. No surprises to the upside or the downside (if you credited the theory that Biden wants to curtail the breakdown of US-Russian relations to slow down its drifting alliance with China). $150M in weapons aid to Ukraine canceled, on top of the dropping of sanctions against German companies involved in NS2 construction. Putin says that Biden is not demented after all. Ted Cruz and Nikki Haley are very sad.

* Paul Robinson’s take on it.

* Biden: “How would it be if the United States were viewed by the rest of the world as interfering with the elections directly of other countries and everybody knew it? What would it be like if we engaged in activities that he engaged in? It diminishes the standing of a country.” What would it be like?

* RUSSIAGATE IS ETERNAL.

* Also congrats to Hanania on his first Tucker Carlson appearance.

* Scott Alexander: Contra Smith On Jewish Selective Immigration. Little here will be new to HBD people, but the arguments that the US selected for *lower quality* Jewish immigrants was a TIL for me.

* Paul Robinson (RT): With vaccines widely available in Russia, dying of Covid-19 has become optional. So why are so many intent on making that choice? Basically comports with my thesis that this is an anti-vaxxer problem, not a supply one, and in fact links to my post saying that “saying from corona in Russia has long been optional” (although noting that it is a “rather insensitive way of putting it”). Perhaps – but were those people sensitive about inconveniencing my life? Moscow is in a lockdown again thanks to them. Meanwhile, some Russians paying 10-20k rubles for fake vaccination certificates.

* One nice thing about Corona is that people built up nice financial cushions during the pandemic and this gives them leverage over employers who now want them back in the office. Many of them are giving their boss the finger. This is GOOD for both worker welfare & wider economic efficiency. Now imagine UBI, pumping that cushion, indefinitely.

* Will the Afghan government even last until the US completes its withdrawal?

* Robin Hanson and Bryan Caplan make a bet on seeing aliens within their lifetimes.

* Out-SJWing the SJWs.

* Smithsonian: Tracing Alaska’s Russian Heritage (h/t AP)

* Peter Frost: Getting the message

* Steve Sailer: Last Men Standing: Charles Murray vs. Ibram X. Kendi

* Where will Bitcoin go? My guess is that we’ll have a double peak this year (as in this video). But it’s impossible to be sure, of course. I think a multi-year bear market is highly unlikely.

* Razib Khan writes about SJW infiltration in Nigeria.

 

 
• Tags: Blogging, Open Thread 

We know the effects of Corona on mortality and GDP. As data trickles in, we are now getting an increasingly clear idea of its effects on fertility rates.

(via Twitter demographer @BirthGauge)

We generally see no large-scale effects from Corona. There were usually fertility shocks as the lockdowns first went into effect, but they were quickly smoothed over subsequent months.

That said, there are important regional differences, with Northern Europe actually seeing a substantial increase in fertility. The effects were most striking in Germany:

If this holds until the end of the year, total TFR for 2021 could be 1.61, the highest value since 1973. (And no, the increase was not driven by refugees). This year may in fact see German total number of births exceed Japan’s. And Iran’s.

There are two possible causes here. The proximate one is that generous social welfare policies and moderate lockdowns blunted the impact of the fertility fall in Northern Europe and soon it was outright reversed. However, another possible, longer-term cause that I would propose, and which is suggested by the fact that Germany is the only developed country (with the exception of the few city-states like Qatar) which had a higher TFR in 2020 than in 2021*, is that Germany’s now close to 50 years of low fertility have “pruned away” many of its genotypic anti-natalists while increasing the “breeder” proportion of the population:

If this is accurate, we may expect German TFR to continue climbing up. While French selection for breeders lasted much longer, the German one was more intense, given the extent of its fertility collapse from the 1970s (while France always remained reasonably close to replacement level rates).

In other news, Czechia this year might have the highest TFR in the developed world after Israel:

Czechia is a socially liberal country with the highest percentage of porn stars in Europe. This happens to have no bearing on fertility rates, to the consternation of right-wingers. It’s almost as if this doesn’t matter.

***

4.7% births fall in Japan this year so far.

Then again, Japan is steadily becoming the fertility “powerhouse” of East Asia – bearing in mind the steep declines observed in South Korea, Taiwan, China, and even Thailand, which is now down to a mere 1.15. (Reminder that everything in life is relative).

As the first East Asian country to undergo the demographic transition, it will also probably be the first one to emerge from it.

***

I have raised this issue in passing before. But demographic statistics from Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan – which have seemingly defied trends towards fertility decrease in almost all the rest of the world – should at this point be treated with extreme skepticism (just like data from Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Chechnya in Russia).

A couple of resources on this topic.

I might write up some of this in English sometime. But the gist of it is that births data are not tallying with population data and some cities are generating crazy and implausibly high TFR figures (e.g. Osh supposed had a TFR of 5.1 by 2019).

The Uzbek figures might ironically be more accurate, but the country is probably on the cusp of an Azeri-like sharp decline, as explained here.

The main socio-political consequence of this is that Russian nationalist trepidations about an unending reservoir of labor pouring in from Central Asia is increasingly divorced from reality. In actuality, large parts of Northern Kazakhstan seem set to remain majority ethnic Russian in perpetuity.

 

* h/t Annatar for this observation.

 
• Category: Economics • Tags: Corona, Demographics, Fertility 
Signaling Against White Supremacy *IS* Literally White Supremacy

A week ago so a minor kerfuffle within the ranks of the “IDW”, with Quillette editor Claire Lehmann attaqing James Lindsay for promoting “White Genocide Theory”.

Is White Genocide happening? Is it likely to happen in a country like the US? Well, as wits such as Roko pointed out, it is surely more likely than aliens visiting our planet within the next couple of decades – a prospect that has recently garnered some mainstream attention (probably helped along by the MIC). On the other hand, it is certainly highly unlikely in absolute terms. The only actual example of a “White Genocide” that could apply in American conditions was Haiti a couple of centuries ago, but whites only constituted 1% of the population there. Similar proportion in Zimbabwe, though it was much less extreme. So it’s replication in the 21C US is quite far-fetched. (Note that refers to “White Genocide” as opposed to “population replacement”, a somewhat separate concept that is arguably applicable right now, though not necessarily indefinitely).

But on a more general level, I have gradually come to realize that debates over “White Genocide” miss the entire point on the most fundamental level.

In reality, any even minimally realistic “White Genocide” scenario in the US will boil down to a White counter-elite challenging or replacing the existing one, probably under the guise of expropriations in service of reparations and general racial leveling. It’s not excluded that it could get very violent, at least in its first one or two decades. But over the long-term, history suggests White Supremacy will unironically win, even under the most extremely scenarios. After all, eras of Bioleninist lunacy are often followed by the restoration of traditional hierarchies, often in forms harsher, more rigid and archaic than what came before.

My basic take is that Lehmann and her supporters like A Radical Centrism, as well as James and his followers, are all barking up the wrong tree. It doesn’t even matter if there’s a full-fledged Bolshevik Revolution in the US. Long-term, White Supremacism wins – since Wokeism, SJWism, CRT, etc. are just a costly (at the social level, not the individual one) means of signaling it, while bearing in mind that at its very core, CRT is basically a White Supremacist humblebrag (association of White culture with “rugged individualism”, intact families, future time orientation, etc). Couched in the language of CRT, what is for all intents and purposes a White Nationalist manifesto becomes dogma to the progressive faithful and in so doing immanentizes White Supremacy.

Incidentally, from this perspective, it is all the more amusing to see POC hype it so much and white rightoids get triggered by it. Though I suppose that’s only to be expected, given that what those two groups have in common is that they’re lower IQ than the White and Jewish liberals who tend to be the most energetic CRT promoters. Those who don’t “get” how this social game is played pay for it with diminished status, becoming “unhandshakeworthy” in respectable society, canceled from its events and deplatformed from its social fora. Not that there’s anything new or even objectionable about this, societies have had “taboos” and “outcasts” for millennia.

One commonly heard rejoinder is that the White promoters of CRT don’t benefit from it. Tell that to Robin DiAngelo – seems to have worked out well for her. Even at a more general level, high status Whites who promote CRT benefit, at least so long as they don’t drink the Kool-Aid and do things like move into Black neighborhoods in solidarity. (This is where “Does it have good schools?” comes in). But that is just another one of life’s myriad IQ tests, high status Whites did not generally become high status by failing them.

Even in the very long-term, we know from Gregory Clark that class is amazingly stable historically, being rooted in biology, even maintaining its internal structure from one political regime to another even as its exterior forms change. I suspect the children and grandchildren of these Woke signaling Whites will be just fine, and if anything, even higher status than their ancestors (“white privilege” being more of an actual thing in, say, Latin America, than the US). Their societies may be less capable and more dysfunctional that would have been the case otherwise, but who cares? Everything in life is relative. Well, status is, at any rate.

It’s quite funny in a way, we actually do, unironically, live within a matrix of White Supremacy, in which the socially “correct” move is to unironically believe in it and condemn it. The higher IQ, socially savvy “get it” and accrue benefits while reinforcing the very system of White Supremacy that privilege them above their co-ethnics who are their only real competitors for apex status.

Furthermore, it is notable, if not surprising, that Wokeism/SJWism is spreading outside the West, and it can be expected to hit many of these regions harder, since they haven’t co-evolved with it and developed some degree of immunity to it (much like how European socialist movements ended up manifesting in their most virulent forms in Russia a century ago). In this respect, Wokeism can be considered to be yet another tool of Western Supremacism and colonial subjugation.

The only conceivable way that this scenario is averted is the one in which the rise of China simply sidelines White Supremacy for good. White elites, counter-elites, and their status games will not have much relevance in a hypothetical world in which China has 3x the GDP of the US and PLAN rules the Pacific. The hammer of the Chinese working class under the paramount leader of the PRC will break free the chains keeping the rest of the world in tow to White Supremacy. It is the iron duty of all true progressives to support them in that endeavor.

 

 

I didn’t know about a certain “sports journalist” and emigre called Slava Malamud until the following amusing exchange with RT journalist Bryan MacDonald came up on my feed.

Out of curiosity, I did a few searches on his feed. He is not completely inconsequential, having 35,000 followers.

So far as the US goes, he repeats the typical pro-BLM and progressive talking points expected of handshakeworthy members of society, while not forgetting to lecture Americans on how they should live:

However, his real venom is reserved for Russia. For instance, he took strong exception to Russian fans booing virtue signaling Belgian football players taking the knee, calling it a joke country.

All well and good.

Curiously, though, for all the very progressive, anti-racist, and pro-immigration stances he adopts, he does seem to have very strong feelings about the necessity of a “Jewish ethnostate” in Israel.

But what’s good for the goose is not so for the gander:

Russian ethnostate: “Isn’t fascism swell now?”

Jewish ethnostate: “The only way to get rid of it is to outnuke it. Wanna try?”

Also, pointing this out makes you a Russian Nazi:

Unsurprisingly, he plugs Julia Ioffe, who has a broadly similar profile – Vice-President of the Israel Public Affairs Committee during her time at Princeton, castigates Putin as an anti-Semite for saying that it wasn’t just Jews who were murdered in the Holocaust.

Since March 2020, his LinkedIn lists him as a “social media manager” for the Khodorkovsky-funded Free Russia Foundation.

 
• Category: Ideology • Tags: Anti-Semitism, Jews, Kompromat, Russia, Russophobes 
Anatoly Karlin
About Anatoly Karlin

I am a blogger, thinker, and businessman in the SF Bay Area. I’m originally from Russia, spent many years in Britain, and studied at U.C. Berkeley.

One of my tenets is that ideologies tend to suck. As such, I hesitate about attaching labels to myself. That said, if it’s really necessary, I suppose “liberal-conservative neoreactionary” would be close enough.

Though I consider myself part of the Orthodox Church, my philosophy and spiritual views are more influenced by digital physics, Gnosticism, and Russian cosmism than anything specifically Judeo-Christian.